BAU Energy Paths: Presentations and Discussions
(Part 1)
Alternative Energy Paths Discussion (Part 1)
8:30-9:15 Welcome tea and breakfast
(Registration) Megan Keever and
Danna West
9:15-9:30 Opening Remarks – Peter Hayes
9:30-9:40 Presentation
of Workshop Goals and Schedule – Masami Nakata and Megan Keever
BAU
Energy Paths: Presentations and Discussions (Part 1)
9:45-4:15 Presentation topics:
1.
The latest
(official) energy outlook of each country (brief)
2.
Summary of the status of the LEAP modeling efforts
including: current status of the data collection, collection methodology, key data
sources and key data gaps, problems encountered in gathering data, concerns of
the country team regarding data availability and quality, and other topics.
3.
BAU energy paths presentations:
BAU path design and assumptions --
What were the central sources you used?
What are the overall assumptions about demographics and economics in
your country in the future? Do any of
the assumptions have regional implications?
Reasonableness of BAU paths—are
the assumptions you've made reasonable given recent trends in your country?
4. “National” alternative paths (only descriptive level)
Japan
9:45-11:00 Oda Junichiro and Tatsujiro Suzuki
11:00-12:15 Guo Baolei, Yanjia Wang and Aling Zhang
12:15-13:00 LUNCH
13:00-14:15 Roman Matveev, Victor Kalashnikov,
and Alexander Ognev
14:15-15:30 Ho-seok Kim and Eui-soon Shin
15:30-15:45 BREAK
15:45-16:15 David Von Hippel
Alternative
Energy Paths Discussion (Part 1):
16:15-17:15 Preliminary Discussion for the Scenario Workshop
17:30
END OF FIRST DAY
Regional
Energy Scenario Workshop
Objectives
·
Question
assumptions
·
Foster
some sense of regional thinking
Facilitators
: Anu Ponnamma (Global Business
Network)
Napier Collyns (Global
Business Network)
Jason Hunter (Nautilus Institute)
9:00 Welcome, Introduction to Scenario Planning
9:30 Focal Issue Presentation and Discussion
Briefly describe what a focal issue is: present the one developed.
Open for discussion/ clarification
What could energy security in
NorthEast Asia look like in 2020
Split group into half: move into two different rooms
10:15 Brainstorming Driving Forces
10:45 Critical Uncertainties
11:00 BREAK(count up votes)
11:10 Clustering Uncertainties/ Forming Axes
12:15 LUNCH
Teams may choose to work through lunch to complete their axes.
Facilitators will make the call whether we go
toward matrix or other types of scenarios during lunch.
12:45 Presenting Axes: Mixing and Matching to Create Sample Scenarios/ Matrices
13:45 Developing the Scenarios (two groups)
14:45 Implications & key take away for focal issue & the nations
16:00 Presentations: high level scenario overviews & key implications
16:30 Debrief
17:00 Close
17:00 END
OF SECOND DAY
BAU Energy Paths: Presentations and Discussions (Part 2)
Alternative “National” Energy Paths
(Part 2)
BAU
Energy Paths: Presentations and Discussions (Part 2)
9:00-10:00 California LEAP BAU path presentation Rebecca Ghanadan
10:00-11:00 Other
BAU issues and concerns for discussion, and presentation of issues to think
about as we plan and organize future EAEF activities
11:00-11:15 BREAK
11:15-12:15 Nuclear power and nuclear waste issues (Presentations and Panel discussion)
Yajia Wang, Woo-Jin
Chang, Victor Kalashnikov, and Peter Hayes
12:15-13:15 LUNCH
Alternative “National” Energy Paths (Part 2)
13:15-15:00 Regional groups’ presentations (15-30 min/group)
Japanese Energy Scenarios Akihiro Ikeda and Rie Kinoshita
California LEAP Alternative Path Rebecca Ghanadan
China Yanjia
Wang and Guo Baolei
South Korea Eui-soon Shin and Ho-seok Kim
Far East Russia Roman
Matveev and Victor Kalashnikov
15:00-15:15
BREAK
15:15-16:00 Discussion of national alternative paths directions
by the EAEF Group as a whole (Coordinated by Nautilus)
16:00-17:30
Discussion about the next phase of the
EAEF project
We will plan additional and ongoing EAEF activities, including continuing discussions of the EAEF group might integrate their national work to address regional issues in a meaningful way.
17:30 END
OF THIRD DAY
31 January
Technical
Discussion and Training (Coordinated by David Von Hippel)
9:00-17:00
Technical Discussion and Training
(Continued)
9:00-17:00
Please bring their data sources in order to continue working on their datasets, and in particular, to bring your questions. It is anticipated that most of the time will be spent working with your data and datasets, helping each other with problems, and discussing different approaches to database development and use.
17:00 CLOSING – Peter Hayes
Wang, Yanjia (Tsinghua University)
Zhang,
Aling (Tsinghua
University)
Guo, Baolei (Tsinghua
University)
Kalashnikov, Victor (Khabarovsk Economic Research
Institute)
Matveev, Roman (Khabarovsk
Economic Research Institute)
Ognev, Alexander (Far
Eastern Representation Vostokenergo, Unified Power Grid of Russia)
Kim, Ho Seok (Yonsei University)
Shin, Eui-soon (Yonsei University)
Cancelled
Oda, Junichiro (University of Tokyo)
Suzuki, Tatsujiro (Central Research Institute of Electric Power Industry)
Observers
Ikeda, Akihiro (Japan Research Institute)
Kinoshita, Rie (Japan Research Institute)
Bor, Yunchang Jeffrey (Chung-Hua Institution For Economic Research)
Chung, Woo-jin (Korea Energy Economics Institute)
Mary Cobb Neighbors (Department of Energy)
Peter Hayes (Nautilus Institute)
David Von Hippel (Nautilus Institute)
Masami Nakata (Nautilus Institute)
Megan Keever (Nautilus Institute)
Tim Savage (Nautilus
Institute)
Rebecca Ghanadan (University
of California at Berkeley, Energy and Resources Group)
Sandy Buffet (Nautilus
Institute)
Zulfiqar Ahmad (Nautilus Institute)