This page provides links to op-eds, analyses, and speeches pertaining to Northeast Asia security issues. The documents are listed in reverse chronological order, with the most recent document listed first.
Copyright material is distributed without profit or payment for research and educational purposes only, in accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. section 107.
2000 | 1999 | 1998 | 1997 | 1996 | 1995 | 1994
Peter Hayes Op-ed in San Francisco Chronicle
October 16, 2000: After a recent mission to North Korea, Peter Hayes, executive director of the Nautilus Institute, comments on his recent experience and the current US-North Korean relationship.
Will the Korean Peninsula Euphoria Regress into New Tension?
August 7, 2000: Tom Plate, Founder and Director of the Asia Pacific Media Network, interviews Lee Bu-Young, South Korea's Deputy President of the Grand National Party and member of the National Assembly. Tom Plate is the Founder and Director of the Asia Pacific Media Network. Plate and Lee discuss the developing relations between North and South Korea after the cold war. Lee also discusses the role of China in the Korean Peninsula and the future of US troops in South Korea.
Why Tokyo will be a Larger Player in Asia
July 31, 2000: This article Dr. Michael Green, senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, spoke at the Bobby Hall Luxenberg Memorial Lecture on Japan. Dr. Green discusses the potential role of Japan to be a key strategic partner for the US in the Asia Pacific. He also looks at ways in which the US can help Japan become a stronger power in Asian and in turn, help the United States' presence there.
SIGAL, Leon V.
Negotiating an End to North Korea's Missile-Making
June 9, 2000: This article by Leon V. Sigal, director of the
Northeast Asia Cooperative Security Project at the Social Science
Research Council in New York, was excerpted from a longer
article published in the June 2000 edition of Arms Control Today. The author argues that the DPRK has consistently shown a willingness to
negotiate away its missile program, but that the US has been slow to
respond. He states that the upcoming ROK-DPRK summit could lay the
groundwork for a diplomatic breakthrough that could solve the Korean
Peninsula problem, but that the US must be open to DPRK overtures.
The Two Kingdoms Period: Toward a New Stability on the Korean Peninsula
June 8, 2000: This article was written by Stephen Noerper, an independent
researcher and Nautilus Senior Associate. Dr. Noerper reviews the recent
developments on the Korean Peninsula, and argues that while reversal is
still possible, the incremental steps toward reconciliation that have
thus far taken place could form the basis for an eventual solution to the
"last vestige of the Cold War.".
Time To Commit to Peace Regime in the Korean Peninsula
June 8, 2000: This article was written by Indong Oh of Korea-2000. Dr. Oh
argues that the ROK-DPRK Summit offers new hope for achieving a permanent
peace regime on the Korean peninsula. To do so, however, the US must
first return operational control to the ROK military, dissolve the UN
Command, and agree to eventual withdrawal of US forces.
The Korean Summit--A Test of Both Kims
May 26, 2000: This article by Robert Manning, Senior Fellow and Director of Asian Studies at the US Council on Foreign Relations, originally ran on May 18 in the Korea Times. Manning says that the agreement to hold an ROK-DPRK summit meeting marks a major shift of the DPRK's diplomatic strategy from one based on Washington to one based on Seoul. He warns, however, that to be successful, Kim Dae-jung must insist on reciprocity, including a major reduction of the DPRK's military threat.
BABSON, Bradley and Eun Sook KIM
Challenges in Expanding External Economic Relations with North Korea
May 16, 2000: This article is a shortened version of a paper presented by Bradley Babson of the World Bank at the seminar "The North Korean System at the Dawn of the 21st Century," held at the University of California at Berkeley on April 7, 2000. The authors review the recent changes in the DPRK's external economic relations, and the challenges that both the DPRK and the international community face in promoting the DPRK's opening to the outside world.
CARPENTER, Ted Galen
The US should adopt a flexible policy toward Beijing
May 11, 2000: This article appeared in The Taipei Times on May 8, 2000. Carpenter argues that US policy toward the PRC should avoid the extremes of either containment designed to isolate the PRC or a strategic partnership that he regards as unrealistic. Instead, the US should encourage the growth of multipolarity to create alternative power centers in the region, even though that means surrendering some US hegemony.
Summit in Pyongyang: Breakthrough or Breakdown?
April 25, 2000: This article appeared in Pacific Forum as PacNet #16 on April 21. Scott Snyder is Representative to Korea of The Asia Foundation and author of "Negotiating on the Edge: North Korean Negotiating Behavior." The views presented here are his own and do not necessarily represent those of The Asia Foundation.
Electoral Change on Taiwan, Building Peace in the Taiwan Strait
April 17, 2000: The complete text of the testimony of Richard C. Bush, Chairman of the Board and Managing Director, American Institute in Taiwan, at the Center for Strategic and International Studies on March 29. Bush speaks on the "New Taiwan presidency opportunity for restored cooperation." Bush discussed the desire of the US policy towards Taiwan to foster a peaceful and stable environment across the Taiwan Strait. Bush also addressed the need for Taiwan's new president to grasp the new opportunity of restoring cooperation across the Strait.
WILLIAMS, James, David VON HIPPEL, Peter HAYES, and Timothy SAVAGE
Dealing with North Korea's Energy Problems
North-South Korea Summit Meeting
April 11, 2000: This article is by Bradley Martin, deputy editor of Asia Times. Martin examines the reasons behind the DPRK-ROK summit agreement announced on April 10 and suggests that the DPRK has timed the announcement to give a "blatant election endorsement" to ROK President Kim Dae-jung's party. The article was originally published in the April 12, 2000 issue of Asia Times.
Taiwan Elections Special Report
March 23, 2000: This report provides succinct overviews of the security-relevant issues raised in some analyses of the election of Chen Shui-bian as the new president of Taiwan. Analyses of the political implications of the election for US-PRC, US-Taiwan, and cross-strait relations have been prolific and varied. The overviews are accompanied by numerous links to world-wide websites for full articles and more detailed information.
Testimony Before the HIRC
March 22, 2000: This report contains the prepared testimony of Mitchell B. Reiss, Dean of International Affairs and Director of the Wendy and Emery Reves Center for International Studies, College of William & Mary in Williamsburg, Virginia, before the Committee on International Relations US House of Representatives on March 16, 2000. Reiss discussed the "three myths" that currently influence US policy toward the DPRK.
Gleysteen-Wickham Book Review
March 6, 2000: A review of two new books on the ROK crisis of 1979-1980 by US officials involved in the events. These reviews were commissioned by the Program on Korea In Transition at the Atlantic Council of the United States in Washington, DC. The Program was started in December 1999 and is dedicated to enhancing the understanding of contemporary ROK politics, economics and foreign policy for the US policy-making community.
Response by US Ambassador Robert G. RICH, Jr., retired.
Bereuter Feb. 2 Speech on Asia and U.S Security Policy
February 3, 2000: The complete text of a speech by US Representative Doug Bereuter, Republican-Nebraska, Chairman of the Subcommittee on Asia and the Pacific of the House International Relations Committee. Bereuter discussed US policy and interests in Asia, including the alliances with Japan and the ROK, and potential challenges from the DPRK, the PRC, Indonesia, India, and Pakistan.
Strengthening Security and Stability: Prospects, Problems, and Opportunities
January 12, 2000: This article by Arnold Kanter, a Senior Fellow at the Forum for International Policy and a Principal in the Scowcroft Group, was released by the Pacific Forum-CSIS as PacNet Number 1 on January 7, 2000. Kanter argues that, while security issues on the Korean Peninsula have not gotten worse, they have not made substantial progress toward a solution. Not only do the fundamental problems of North Korea remain, but pending issues such as the Taiwan elections and the development of theater missile defense could have negative impacts on the Korean Peninsula. Kanter concludes that it is important for policymakers to continue down their current path, and to treat North Korea as a problem to be "managed" rather than "solved."
VALENCIA, Mark, and Jenny Miller GARMENDIA
Yellow Sea Clash: North Korea Has a Point
December 23, 1999: In this article, Mark J. Valencia, an East-West Center senior fellow and a specialist in maritime policy, and Jenny Miller Garmendia, an EWC degree fellow from the United States majoring in political science, review the historical and legal questions regarding the Northern Limit Line between the ROK and the DPRK in the Yellow Sea (West Sea). They argue that the issues are not all clear-cut in the ROK's favor, and that the US should keep an "open mind" in trying to resolve the problem before it surfaces again.
Mt. Kumgang Tourism Project: A Joint Venture of Two Koreas?
December 9, 1999:This article by Mr. Bong-Geun Jun, currently Assistant Director for Policy and the DPRK Affairs Division at the Korea Peninsula Energy Development Organization (KEDO), Jun examines the Hyundai-DPRK Mt. Kumgang tourism project and argues that while the leaders of the ROK and the DPRK had different motivations for approving the project, both sides have much to gain from its success. Jun concludes that the Mt. Kumgang tourism project will make other inter-Korean economic ventures increasingly possible.
GILMAN, Benjamin A.
US Policy toward DPRK
October 21, 1999:A speech to the Asia Society by US Representative Benjamin Gilman, chairman of the House International Relations Committee, on US policy toward the DPRK.
COSSA, Ralph, Pacific Forum CSIS
The U.S.-DPRK Agreed Framework: Is it Still Viable? Is it Enough?
July 15, 1999: This article by Ralph A. Cossa, Executive Director, Pacific Forum-CSIS, was released as PacNet #27 on July 9, 1999. The author argues that the 1994 US-DPRK Agreed Framework remains a viable instrument for US-DPRK dialogue, but is not in and of itself sufficient to govern US strategy toward the DPRK. This paper is based on a much larger study by Mr. Cossa, which is available on the Pacific Forum website.
GILL, Bates, Brookings Institution
There's Less to the Chinese Threat Than Meets the
June 28, 1999: This article is by Dr. Bates Gill, Senior Fellow in Foreign Policy Studies and Director, Center for Northeast Asian Policy Studies at The Brookings Institution. This article was published in the Sunday, June 20 Outlook Section of the Washington Post, and is a shortened version of an article appearing in the June issue of The National Interest. The author argues that, contrary to the furor created by the recent allegations of PRC espionage, the PRC's military forces do not represent a credible threat to the US and are not likely to do so for some time. This article can also be found at the Brookings Institution's website.
BELLO, Walden, and KIMURA, Ehito, Focus on the Global South
Why the Protectorate Survives
June 23, 1999: This following article is by Dr. Walden Bello, professor of sociology and public administration at the University of the
Philippines, and Ehito Kimura, research associate at Focus on the Global South, a research, analysis, and advocacy institute based in Bangkok, Thailand. The authors argue that the new US-Japan Defense Guidelines and the US-Philippines Visiting Forces Agreement marked the closing of the window of opportunity for developing new multilateral security arrangements in the post-Cold War era. Instead, the US is determined to pursue a unilateral course under the guise of multilateral or bilateral arrangements. This article originally appeared in the Far Eastern Economic Review.
NOERPER, Stephen, Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies
Current View of the DPRK
June 3, 1999: The following is an excerpt from a paper presented by Professor Stephen E. Noerper at the 13th Asia-Pacific Roundtable, Kuala Lumpur, hosted by ISIS Malaysia, 30 May-2 June 1999. Noerper argued that, while potential problems remain, the current situation offers an unprecedented opportunity to move toward greater stability on the Korean Peninsula. Dr. Stephen Noerper is an Associate Professor of International Relations at the Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies in Honolulu, Hawaii. The views expressed are his own and do not reflect those of the Center or the United States Government. He may be contacted at telephone 01-808-971-8973, 8989 (fax), or firstname.lastname@example.org.
World Affairs Council of Northern California
Summary: 53rd Annual Conference
June 3, 1999: This report is a summary of the 53rd annual conference of the World Affairs Council of Northern California, held in Asilomar April 30-May 2 on the topic "Korea: One People, Two Worlds." The conference brought together scholars, government officials, and representatives of non-governmental organizations to discuss the current and future state of the Korean Peninsula.
GILMAN, Benjamin A.
Congressional Legislation on DPRK
May 20, 1999: This report contains two parts. The first part is a press release from the US House of Representatives International Relations Committee on legislation introduced by Committee Chairman Benjamin Gilman (R-New York) on US policy toward the DPRK. This release includes a summary of the legislation. The press release is followed by commentary by a congressional staff member who requested anonymity.
GILMAN, Benjamin A.
HIRC Press Release on TMD
May 5, 1999: The transcript of the press release issued by the office of US Representative Benjamin A. Gilman, R-New York, Chairman of the House International Relations Committee. Gilman presented a report to Japanese Prime Minister Keizo Obuchi recommending that the US, Japan, and the ROK establish an early warning system to guard
against missile attack. The report was compiled by Committee staff members who traveled to Japan, the ROK, and Taiwan last month.
April 22, 1999: Ralph A. Cossa is the Executive Director of the Pacific Forum CSIS. This article was originally issues as PacNet #13 on April 2, 1999. The author argues that the recent incursion of unidentified ships into Japanese territorial waters highlighted both the need to implement the new US-Japan defense guidelines and the limitations of those guidelines themselves. He calls for a re-evaluation of Japan's defense needs beyond the question of its support for US troops in the region.
SHIRK, Susan and Dr. Kurt CAMPBELL
Taiwan Relations Act
April 16, 1999: The complete transcripts of the testimony before the US House of Representatives International Relations Committee, Subcommittee on Asia and the Pacific, by Susan L. Shirk, Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific, and Dr. Kurt Campbell, Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security
Affairs, Asian And Pacific Affairs. The two officials testified on April 14 about US-Taiwan relations on the 20th Anniversary of the Taiwan Relations Act. News reports on their testimony were included in the Daily Report for April 15.
April 5, 1999: Peter M. Beck is Director of Research/Academic Affairs at the Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI). Article is a condensed version of an article appearing in KEI's annual publication "Korea's Economy 1999." Beck discusses the ROK's attempts to pull itself out of its economic difficulties in 1998 and the prospects for the future. To order a copy or learn more about KEI, visit their website.
March 29, 1999: Mr. Goldstein is Director of the Asia Program at the Foreign Policy Research Institute and Associate Professor of Political Science at the University of Pennsylvania. The article was originally distributed by the Foreign Policy Research Institute on March 1, 1999. Goldstein argues that current US views of the PRC are more reflective of political passions in the US than of careful analysis. He calls for a more measured US policy toward the PRC that recognizes the different interests of the US and the PRC but does not assume inevitable hostility between the two countries.
GARWIN, Richard L.
National Missile Defense
March 25, 1999: Mr. Garwin, chairman of the Arms Control Advisory Committee for the Arms Control and Disarmament Agency, discusses the effectiveness of the proposed national missile defense system against possible ICBM's from the DPRK. Garwin argues that the system would be easily defeated by certain low-technology methods. This article is also archived at the Federation of American Scientists website.
GILMAN, Benjamin A.
March 24, 1999: The opening statement from Mr. Gilman, chairman of the US House of Representatives International Relations Committee, on the hearings held by the committee on March 24 regarding US policy toward the DPRK.
THAKUR, Ramesh & Ralph COSSA
Korea and South Asia
March 22, 1999: Ramesh Thakur is Vice Rector of United Nations University in Tokyo, and Ralph Cossa is Executive Director of Pacific Forum, CSIS in Honolulu. The authors compare the situations on the Korean Peninsula and the South Asian subcontinent and argue that, in both cases, the countries involved can neither afford to make war nor to find a comprehensive solution to the problem.
Constitutional Changes in DPRK
January 11, 1999: Mr. Choi, Research Fellow at the Korea Institute for National Unification (KINU) in Seoul, discusses the status of relations among the DPRK's Worker's Party, military, and government in light of the newly promulgated DPRK constitution.
Plutonium Recycling in ROK
October 16, 1998: This article originally appeared in the September/October, 1998 issue of the Technology Center for Nuclear Control (TCNC) Newsletter. Mr. Roh, the Chief Executive Officer of Korea Nuclear Fuel Co., considers the economic, technical, and socio-political aspects of plutonium recycling and its applicability to the ROK.
TASK FORCE, Council on Foreign Relations
CFR Open Letter to Bill Clinton
October 8, 1998: An open letter to US President Bill Clinton by an independent task force sponsored by the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR). The task force was assembled to examine US policy toward the Korean Peninsula. It was headed by Morton Ambramowitz, Senior CFR Fellow and former President of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, and James Laney, former US Ambassador to the ROK.
DOMENICI, Senator Pete
February 20, 1998: In a statement in the Congressional Record (pages S635-636) on February 11, Senator Pete Domenici, R-NM, argued that the US should move to a "threat-based stockpile" of nuclear weapons, driven by the minimal stockpile size that meets credible threat evaluations. He also called for de-alerting nuclear weapons, and for reprocessing nuclear fuel from dismantled weapons for peaceful energy uses.
BUTLER, General Lee (Ret.)
February 10, 1998: In a speech to the National Press Club on February 2, 1998, retired General Lee Butler argued that the concept of nuclear deterrence is a dangerous anachronism in the post-cold war era. Speaking as the former commander in chief of the US Strategic Command, Butler said that his own experience of being in charge of nuclear weapons convinced him of the contradictions and dangers of US nuclear policy.
BETANCOURT, Antonio & Mark BARRY
December 22, 1997: In a report prepared by Antonio Betancourt, Executive Director, Summit Council for World Peace, and Dr. Mark P. Barry, Research Fellow, the authors examine the Election of Kim Dae Jung, the American Reaction, and its potential repercussions on the future of Inter-Korean Relations.
INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND (IMF)
IMF Bailout of the ROK
December 9, 1997: The IMF announced, in a December 4 press release, the approval of a $21 billion stand-by credit to the ROK. In doing so, it made use of the accelerated procedures established under the emergency financing mechanism (EFM), adopted in September 1995.
CENTER FOR INTERNATIONAL STRATEGY, TECHNOLOGY AND POLICY
Military-to-Military Security Dialogue
December 3, 1997: On 4 October, 1997, the CISTP at the Georgia Institute of Technology sponsored, in conjunction with the Russian Institute for Strategic Studies, the First Northeast Asia Military-to-Military Security Dialogue. Primary goals of this program included the amelioration of different states' security concerns, creating a multinational military dialog cooperative in nature, and the development of strong personal ties amongst the military leaders of these states.
MANNING, Robert A.
Four Party Talks
October 14, 1997: Mr. Manning, a Senior Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, analyses the four-party peace talks preliminary meeting in a report distributed by the Pacific Forum CSIS as "PacNet #41" on October 10, 1997. Manning states that US reactive policies have resulted in a situation where Pyongyang dictates the diplomatic agenda, and is rewarded for bad behavior. He advocates a more assertive US policy that provides Pyongyang with clear options: trading economic packages for a reduced military threat.
BOSWORTH, Stephen W.
US-ROK Relationship Overview
September 25, 1997: In a Senate Confirmation statement by Stephen W. Bosworth, Ambassador-designate to the Republic of Korea, presented a sweeping overview of the US-ROK relationship. In particular, he focused on three issues that he considers the central objectives of American policy towards the ROK: maintenance of security and stability on the Korean Peninsula; support for democracy and human rights; and expansion of free trade.
Anti-personal Land Mines Ban
September 22, 1997: In an article originally appearing in the International Herald Tribune on September 17, 1997, Ramesh Thakur argued for a ban on the production, stockpiling, use and transfer of anti-personnel land mines. In particular, he singled out the US position as being detrimental to the treaty, which would free a state from its obligations should it find itself involved in an act of aggression.
CENTER FOR WAR, PEACE AND THE NEWS MEDIA ROUNDTABLE
North Korea on the Brink: Politics and Possibilities on the Eve of the Four Party Talks
August 12, 1997: Four US experts on the Korean situation focus on the preliminary meetings which would usher in the Four-Party Peace Talks at a press roundtable organized by the Center for War, Peace and the News Media at the United Nations in New York on July 30. The consensus among them is that while the ostensible goal of these talks is to replace the 1953 Armistice with a permanent peace agreement, the diplomatic agenda surrounding the talks is much broader. They conclude that the formal negotiations will inevitably lead to issues of reduction of military confrontation, increased food aid, full implementation of the 1994 Agreed Framework, and diplomatic recognition of the DPRK. The panelists undertook issues such as the differing agendas of the four parties to the talks, North Korea's strategy, the role of China and Japan, KEDO's contribution to peace and diplomacy on the Korean peninsula, and lastly, the ever present possibility of war.
Public Concern About The Taiwan-DPRK Radwaste Deal: An Opportunity
March 10, 1997: Gordon Thomas of the Institute for Resource and Security Studies in Cambridge, Massachusetts, responds to Peter Hayes's "Much Ado About Little Radiation" by asserting that the shipment of radioactive waste brings to the fore a set of problems not normally as salient, such as the potential to mask illicit transfer of fissile materials and the potential for diversion of radioactive materials to terrorists. Since the public has shown an unusual amount of interest in the issue, its energies should be channeled into a productive venue such as creating an international regime which would regulate such activities.
Peter Hayes's response is that South Korea is attacking a particular manifestation of a problem in a way that may undermine the implementation of the US-DPRK Agreed Framework, and the achievement of US nuclear non-proliferation goals in the Korean Peninsula. The proposals for a regulated trade and regional consensus as to how to deal with nuclear waste are premature for two reasons. First, it would increase the likelihood that such waste would end up being stored in isolated places of less developed countries, thus not subject to critical oversight, and second, it would encourage dependence on nuclear energy, creating more waste and hence a greater danger of environmental contamination.
Much Ado About Little Radiation
March 4, 1997: In a commentary on the recent agreement in which Taiwan will ship nuclear waste to the DPRK, Peter Hayes, Co-Executive Director of the Nautilus Institute for Security and Sustainable Development, asserts that the issue is vexed because it allows the various parties to the dispute to posture politically. The real issue in both North and South Korea is not low level waste, but high level waste in spent fuel ponds and in reactor cores. It is up to the South, which produces much greater quantities of nuclear waste, to address both its own nuclear vulnerabilities as well as the problems that the light-weight nuclear reactors it is building in the North will pose.
COTTON, Prof. James
Defection Of North Korea's Ideologist A Clear Sign Of Regime Crisis
February 14, 1997: Professor James Cotton, of the University of Tasmania examines the significance of the defection of Hwang Jang-yop, senior official in the DPRK hierarchy who was one of the principal architects of the doctrine of juche, or self-reliance. According to Cotton, Hwang's defection is a clear sign that the North Korean regime is in crisis, both because of his high ranking as well as its timing; coming just before the celebration of Kim Jong-il's birthday.
BARRY, Dr. Mark P.
US-DPRK Relations: 1997 and Beyond
February 8, 1997: Dr. Mark P. Barry, Director of Research at the Summit Council for World Peace, outlined his assessment of the current situation on the Korean Peninsula on February 8, at a conference sponsored by the Virginia Consortium for Asian Studies College of William and Mary. He examines the dynamics between the US and its allies in the region, particularly the ROK, whose contradictory policies have often proved to be a hindrance to the achievement of peace on the peninsula. His conclusions are that only through US led multilateral exertions can a DPRK "soft landing" be achieved.
Two Letters from Hwang Jang-yop
January 2, 1997: Hwang Jang-yop, a DPRK official who has sought asylum in the ROK embassy in Beijing, reportedly wrote two letters originally appearing in the ROK daily Chosen Ilbo on January 2. The first text is the letter reportedly written after Hwang's arrival at the embassy and distributed by the ROK government. In it, he states his sorrow over the situation in the Korean peninsula, wondering how "sane" people can threaten the each other with annihilation as they proclaim a doctrine of reunification. The second text is reportedly an excerpt from the full text of a letter published in the ROK daily Chosen Ilbo. Mr. Hwang characterizes the confrontation between the South and North as one of capitalism versus feudalism. He criticizes the personality cult which has developed around Kim Jong-il, and believes that peaceful reunification can only occur if the South were to widen the economic gap between it and the North, and that this can only be achieved if political education is introduced in the South. He also believes that the North will use the Four Party Talks to isolate the South from China and the US.
NUCLEAR POLICY REVIEW PROJECT
Federation Of American Scientists Nuclear Policy Review Project
The Nuclear Policy Review Project, directed by Morton H. Halperin, Senior Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, recommends that the government conduct a fundamental review of U.S. nuclear policy. The key issues which must be addressed are 1) to strike a balance between deterrence and the dangers of nuclear accidents, 2) to find the right combination of arms control agreements defense pacts to minimize risk of nuclear proliferation, and 3) determine the extent to which the U.S. should reduce its number of weapons, and which targets should be selected to be destroyed.
KENNEDY, Scott and Michael O'HANLON
Time to Shift Gears on China Policy
Winter 1996: Mr. Kennedy and Mr. O'Hanlon, Brookings Institute, state that the West should find ways for the PRC, a rising power, to enjoy greater influence in the world in a manner that is supportive of a peaceful and prosperous international order. A PRC policy must find a balance between two goals: defending US interests in a way that is not threatening to the PRC, and reassuring the PRC in a way that is not threatening to her neighbors. This requires making symbolic and substantive policy changes in the areas of economics, human rights and security.
After the Geneva Agreed Framework: Developing a Road Map for Normalizing Relations with North Korea
October 31, 1996: Mr. Snyder, United States Institute of Peace, states that lasting peace and regional stability will not be assured until a road map for normalizing relationships on the Korean Peninsula has been developed and implemented. ROK public support for the Agreed Framework is most critical because a loss of ROK political and financial support would keep the US from fulfilling its obligations. Also, the US should not continue to play the role as mediator, because it will leave itself open to criticism of being manipulated by either side. As a result, negotiations on technical issues should be handled through KEDO.
PACTOM: A Nuclear Cooperation Regime as Asian CSBM
April 24, 1996: The time may be ripe for a new regime of nuclear cooperation beginning in Northeast Asia, where nuclear power in the world is concentrated. A cooperative mechanism addressing nuclear energy may offer new opportunities for a problem solving approach to shaping a regional or sub-regional political framework able to ameliorate distrust. Considering the level of dependence that Northeast Asian countries have on nuclear energy and their history of animosity, confidence and security building measures in this area are crucial.
The Cheju Shuffle: Clinton and Korea
April 1996: The incursions of DPRK troops into the DMZ were just one of a series of efforts at trying to discredit the Armistice Agreement. Although the incursions may have been meant to extract benefits from the US or the ROK, tensions on the peninsula tend to rise rapidly, causing miscues to escalate out of control. This topic and other issues such as the execution of the Agreed Framework and US-ROK relations will be discussed at the "mini-summit" between Presidents Clinton and Kim Young Sam on Cheju Island.
March 4, 1996: The South Asian region is an important area for non-proliferation, since it is suspected that India and Pakistan may have already developed or are on the verge of developing nuclear weapons. A non-governmental dialogue might prove helpful to provide a forum where distinguished individuals from respective countries can discuss in their private capacity issues of regional non-proliferation and global nuclear disarmament.
North Korea Low on US Agenda Though Crisis Looms
February 1996: Between the situation in Bosnia, the crisis in the Middle East, and the haggling over the federal budget, the DPRK and its potential for instability remains low on the Clinton Administration's agenda. The DPRK shows signs of several serious problems. The DPRK may be on the brink of mass hunger, its military moving aircraft towards the DMZ, it is threatening the armistice agreement, and the US-DPRK Agreed Framework may be at risk. Manning analyzes the US view of the DPRK, its policy toward the DPRK and suggests policy alternatives.
DEMBINSKI, Dr. Matthias
North Korea, IAEA Special Inspections, and the Future of the Non-Proliferation Regime
Winter 1995: The 1994 nuclear crisis with the DPRK offers the opportunity to evaluate two sections of the international non-proliferation regime. The first issue is the ability of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to discover a military nuclear program. The second is the ability of the states under the regime to punish a breach of contract. The results of this test will have lasting effects which should also take into account an assessment of the Agreed Framework.
Future Roles of the Major Powers in Northeast Asia
November 3, 1995: Addresses the future roles and interests of the four major Pacific powers, the US, Japan, Russia, and the PRC, and how their policies will affect security in Northeast Asia and the Korean Peninsula. The internal changes occurring within the four powers and the unpredictable nature of the ROK and the DPRK complicate matters. Also, the individual bi-lateral relationships between the six countries further complicates the analysis.
The US, ROK, and North Korea: Anatomy of a Muddle
October 17, 1995: It is unclear whether or not the DPRK is genuinely interested in trading its nuclear weapons program for a broad economic and political engagement with the US, the ROK, and Japan. Several issues may complicate the deal to provide the DPRK with two light water reactors (LWR). Just working out the details of the deal itself promise to be an arduous task. In addition, the role that the ROK will play as the actual provider of the reactors also complicates matters. Finally, the joint DPRK-US statement in Kuala Lumpur guarantees that the US will be caught in the middle of all this.
Chinese Perception of the US-ROK Alliance
October 7, 1995: Mr. Wang, Georgia Institute of Technology, analyzes the PRC's post-Cold War security policy, especially towards Northeast Asia, asserting that the PRC is preoccupied with domestic issues and will view the world in terms of international economic competition. Also, the PRC prefers a divided, but stable Korea, as opposed to a united and denuclearized one. Finally, the PRC has tacitly accepted the US-ROK Alliance, but would be strongly opposed to an alliance between the US and a united Korea.
Announcement of Return to Politics
July 18, 1995: Kim Dae-jung apologized for going back on his 1992 promise of leaving politics in order to stay out of the way of the newly-elected President Kim Young-sam. Kim cited several reasons for his return. First, he believed President Kim was not doing an adequate job after an auspicious start. Also, he felt that his Democratic Party had failed in its duty to act as an effective opposition party. Finally, his main reason for returning was the fragmentation of the Democratic Party and its lack of competent leadership.
Peace Is Everyone's Job
May 22, 1995: There are times when peace negotiations cannot be held because both governments of two warring parties refuse negotiations or because the US government itself is a long time ally of one of the parties. In cases like these, the best route to peace is through the unofficial contacts of private citizens.
ORR, Robert, Jr.
Thinking Strategically: What Are Japan's Options for the Future?
May 17, 1995: There are several strategic issues that Japan needs to address. The US-Japan Security Treaty, although the "lynchpin" of the bilateral relationship, lacks "meat." The Treaty has no contingency plans for possible events such as another Korean war or Korean unification which could threaten the Treaty. Also, human rights and Japan's relations with Russia need to be addressed. Finally, unless Japan can come to terms with regional historical hostilities, traditional mistrust will be left to fester.
Perceivable Winds of Change in North Korea?
May 17, 1995: As a result of the fall of communism, the DPRK has been forced to begin opening itself up to foreign investment to make up for the Eastern bloc support that no longer exists. These changes represent a possible opportunity for the US to stabilize the Korean Peninsula. In order to control the investment, the DPRK is establishing a government agency that would control foreign capital, and limit investment to a free trade zone. However, the death of Kim Il-sung creates the potential for political instability and the closed nature of DPRK society would prevent changes from taking place very rapidly.
WILBORN, Thomas L.
Strategic Implications of the US-DPRK Framework Agreement
April 3, 1995: With the signing of the framework agreement in 1994 between the US and the DPRK, the US will be put in the unfamiliar role of mediator of conflict on the peninsula. The responsibility for implementing the complicated agreement falls mainly on the US. The carrying out of these responsibilities will profoundly affect the strategic environment of Northeast Asia.
The Japan-US alliance in the Post-Cold War Era: Still Viable or Obsolete?
March 15, 1995: A review of the US-Japan security treaty by a group of independent specialists concluded that the treaty remains beneficial to both parties in the post-Cold War era. Without the treaty, Japan would either have to accommodate its nuclear-armed neighbors or raise its own military to self-sufficiency. The specialists concluded that the former would raise anxiety within Japan, while the latter would raise anxiety outside Japan. An optimal alternative would be to enhance regional, multilateral security cooperation built upon existing bilateral relations, especially the US-Japan Security Treaty.
The Agreement Between the United States and North Korea
March 15, 1995: Although the DPRK may have already developed a nuclear device, as suggested by its refusal to admit a IAEA inspection team, the Agreed Framework can still serve a purpose. It must serve as the cornerstone of future relations between the US and the DPRK. Also, since the DPRK does not appear to have long term goals, the appeasement of the DPRK with the Agreed Framework probably will not invite a greater crisis later. However, the possibility of PRC aid to the DPRK may complicate matters.
MANNING, Robert, Progressive Policy Institute
Testimony before the House Subcommittee on Asia and the Pacific
February 23, 1995: The DPRK nuclear issue should be seen as a symptom of a larger problem of US policy on the Korean Peninsula. There must be acceptance of the fact that there is no solution that will result in 100% certainty. Also, there can be no good policy answers, only least bad choices. The nuclear issue should not be looked exclusively in terms of proliferation. It must be addressed as a larger bargain that will peacefully bring about a reunification of the ROK and the DPRK.
Robbing Defense to Play Politics
February 13, 1995: The use of Defense Department funds should not be used for non-defense purposes, as the Clinton Administration as done. Money from the Department's "emergency fund" was used to fund the crude oil that was sent to the DPRK as part of the Agreed Framework. Also, many other domestic social programs were funded by the Defense Department. Since the emergency fund money has already been appropriated, the Administration does not need Congressional approval to finance such programs. With the current state of unpreparedness and disrepair that certain sections of the military are in, the Defense Department needs every dollar it can get.
Asia and the Pacific Sub-Committee
February 9, 1995: Mr. Breuter, Chairman, states that the end of the Cold War has compelled the sub-committee to contribute to a revitalized American engagement in the Asia-Pacific region. The actions of the sub-committee will be guided by three main objectives: one, to maintain the US military presence in the Asia Pacific region; two, to defend economic interests and expand commercial opportunities in the region; and three, to advance the principles of democracy, pluralism, and human rights in the region.
Testimony before the House International Relations Committee
January 19, 1995: Former Assistant Secretary of State for International Organization Affairs Maynes testifies that the end of the Cold War means that foreign policy decision making can be shared now that the President no longer needs near "monarchical powers" to conduct foreign policy in the face of an imminent threat. However, House Resolution #7 may serve to cripple America's ability to conduct sound foreign policy. First, HR 7 excessively frees the President's hands unilaterally while tying them multilaterally. It also confuses international institutions with real substance. Finally, it threatens an opportunity to radically reduce the world's nuclear weapons stockpile by violating the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty.
Testimony before the Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources
January 19, 1995: Mr. Milhollin, Director of the Wisconsin Project on Nuclear Arms Control, addresses three issues. The first is what the US has to gain from the Agreed Framework with the DPRK in comparison to its obligations. The second issue is the possible dangers that might arise by treating the DPRK as a "special case" under international inspection agreements. The third is the method by which the DPRK may use the agreement to advance a program of plutonium and weapons production.
MURKOWSKI, Sen. Frank
Statement on The Joint US-North Korea Agreed Framework on Nuclear Issues
January 19, 1995: Mr. Murkowski, Chairman of the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee states that the Agreed Framework has overlooked potential problems that may come about during the actual implementation of the agreement. First, the modern power reactors that will be supplied to the DPRK may not be compatible with their existing power grid. As a result, it may have to be rebuilt, and someone will have to pay for it. Also, the destination of the spent nuclear fuel from both the old and new reactors is not certain. Moreover, the DPRK may not be technically, legally, and politically equipped to safely operate the reactors.
KIHL, Young Whon
Confrontation or Compromise on the Korean Peninsula? The North Korean Nuclear Issue
Winter 1994: Looks at the nuclear issue in the wake of the 1994 nuclear crisis. It begins by reviewing the background of the 1994 crisis and how it was resolved. The essay then looks at the possibility of settlement on the Korean conflict in the context of the resolution of the 1994 crisis. Finally, it speculates on the possibility of a lasting peace on the Peninsula in the post-Cold War world.
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