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In today's Report:
The Wall Street Journal (Eduardo Lachica, "U.S., JAPAN AGREE TO
GUIDELINES OUTLINING `DEFENSE COOPERATION," Washington, 6/9/97)
and Reuters ("US, JAPAN CLOSE TO NEW MILITARY ROLE FOR TOKYO,"
Honolulu, 6/8/97) reported that the US and Japan released new
guidelines for a new defense arrangement between the two
countries on Saturday. These guidelines are part of an interim
report developed by a bilateral panel which is following up on
initiatives announced during the Clinton-Hashimoto summit in
April 1996. The guidelines include a broader range of
logistical and noncombatant support role for Japan in the event
of an emergency situation in the areas "surrounding" Japan,
including use of Japanese airfields, Japanese involvement in
minesweeping and enhanced intelligence gathering. These new
roles represent a departure from the existing "Guidelines for
Defense Cooperation" drafted in 1978 under which only an armed
invasion of Japan would warrant joint US-Japanese military
operations. The new guidelines recognize that hostilities
directed at Japan will be in the form of missile strikes rather
than amphibious landings. The guidelines do not require either
country to change their laws of appropriate additional financial
support.
The Washington Times (Willis Witter, "JAPAN, U.S. PLAN TO EXPAND
MILITARY PRESENCE," Tokyo, 6/9/97) and The Associated Press
("JAPAN EXPLAINS US DEFENSE PLAN," Tokyo, 6/8/97) reported that
the US and Japan are planning a "diplomatic offensive" to
convince China and the rest of the Asia-Pacific region to accept
an expanded military role for Japan. The final report is
expected in November and will more carefully spell out specific
roles for Japan. The AP reports that Japan is expecting
criticism from China over a possible role for Japan in helping
US forces in a conflict over Taiwan.
Reuters ("US, JAPAN,S. KOREA HOLD TALKS ON N. KOREA," Seoul,
6/9/97) reported that the US, Japan and ROK held a one-day
discussion to review food shortages in the DPRK and possible
steps to bring the DPRK to peace talks. Charles Kartman, US
deputy assistant secretary of State, Yu Myung-hwan, a director-
general at the ROK Foreign Ministry, and Ryozo Kato from the
Japanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs participated in the talks.
The report quotes a Korean official as saying that although
there have been no breakthroughs in recent weeks, there are
signs that the DPRK is moving to accepting the proposal for
peace talks.
The Associated Press (George Gedda, "N. KOREA ADULTS, CHILDREN
SUFFER," Washington, 6/8/97) reported that Andrew Natsios, an
American humanitarian relief expert returned from a five day
trip to the DPRK with reports that adults over 50 and children
under 5 are suffering most from food shortages. Natsios is
currently a vice president for World Vision, a US relief and
development organization. Natsios said that he saw few vehicles
on the road, reflecting an acute gasoline shortage, and few
animals suggesting widespread slaughter for human consumption.
Natsios recommended a "massive infusion of additional food aid
immediately."
United Press International ("N. KOREA AIMS MISSILES AT TOKYO:
DEFECTOR," Seoul, 6/9/97) reported that Kim Dae-ho, who worked
for the DPRK atomic energy ministry in the late 1980's claims
that the DPRK has a missiles pointed at Japan from a base in
north Hamkyong Province. Kim also claims the DPRK, using
smuggled red mercury from Russia, created enough plutonium to
produce two nuclear warheads in 1992. Kim defected to the ROK
in April 1994.
1. Discrepancies on DPRK Food Assessment
Discrepancies in the assessment of the DPRK's food situation
have arisen with the US and U.N. agencies, on one side, and the
ROK, Japan and the PRC on the other. All parties share the view
that the DPRK has suffered from food shortages, but differ over
whether grain aid from the outside world is enough to head off a
famine this summer. The US, citing reports by the World Food
Program, believes that the DPRK still requires large-scale grain
aid to overcome the current food shortages. However, the ROK
National Unification Ministry believes that the more than one
million tons of grain scheduled to be shipped to the DPRK by the
end of August by foreign governments, U.N. agencies and non-
governmental organizations will be enough to prevent famine. A
PRC Foreign Ministry spokesman also said that the DPRK had
averted a major food crisis. In response, the US State
Department spokesperson Nicholas Burns said on Friday only that
the US puts faith in the WFP's assessment, indirectly
questioning the objectivity of the ROK government. "They (WFP)
have a great track record. They know what they are doing. We
know from first-hand accounts of American congressmen who have
been in North Korea, from other international visitors,
objective people, that there is a great deal of privation in
North Korea, severe food shortages, and that particularly little
kids under the age of five and six are severely malnourished,"
Burns said. On June 4, the WFP issued a report noting that the
DPRK's food crisis is worsening rapidly, and that the last
available government ration will run out by June 20. Citing the
results of a joint site survey by the WFP and the Food and
Agriculture Organization (FAO), the report said that the
rationing system is now on the verge of collapse with no
alternative mechanism available. The WFP's assessment downplays
the significance of grain aid from the international community.
However, officials here observe that the DPRK obtains more than
500,000 tons of grain from the PRC annually and will receive
more than 600,000 tons of grain aid from foreign governments,
U.N. agencies and others by October, a volume which is enough to
feed 23 million North Koreans until the autumn harvest, if
combined with the North's domestic production of over 3.5
million tons. Seoul, Tokyo and Washington are expected to hold
three-way talks Monday to assess the North's food situation,
discuss ways to coax the DPRK into the four-party talks and
exchange views on the revision of US-Japan defense guidelines.
"We want to make sure that we are totally in agreement with
them. I think they will discuss the food situation, the status
of the four-party talks proposal, and implementation of the
agreed framework," State Department spokesman Burns said Friday.
However, it is still in question whether the three countries
could reach a consensus on the assessment of the DPRK's food
situation through the forthcoming three-way talks. (Korea Times,
"DISCREPANCY ARISES BETWEEN ALLIES ON NORTH KOREAN FOOD
ASSESSMENT," 06/08/97)
The second mission of the Korean Peninsula Energy Development
Organization (KEDO), which has been in the DPRK since May 31 to
negotiate the construction of two light-water nuclear reactors
in Simpo returned to the ROK yesterday. The mission has
virtually reached an agreement with the North Koreans on 25
items, including mail and telecommunication services, medical
measures for emergency cases, use of DPRK labor and materials
and transportation routes and services, a government official
said. Under the agreement, the ROK, the US and Japan, the three
key KEDO members, will soon start to prepare site-leveling work
on the reactor construction project, he said. KEDO will open
its office in Simpo as early as next month, along with the
opening of telephone service between Simpo and the ROK. (Korea
Times, "2ND KEDO MISSION RETURNS TO SOUTH," 06/08/97)
3. ROK President Call for Defense Preparedness
ROK President Kim Young-sam yesterday instructed the military
leaders to increase its water-tight defense preparedness to
deter any military provocation from the DPRK. In a meeting with
key military leaders, including ROK Defense Minister Kim Dong-
jin, the Chief Executive pointed out that there is high
possibility that the Pyongyang regime might resort to military
aggression in a desperate attempt to tide over its internal
crisis. Defense Minister Kim agreed that the military should
carefully monitor the DPRK military movement to counter any
aggression. President Kim called upon the military leaders "to
maintain unswerving defense posture without being swayed under
whatever circumstances." (Korea Times, "PRESIDENT KIM CALLS FOR
WATERTIGHT DEFENSE PREPAREDNESS," 06/08/97)
Following a meeting of senior military officials, the ROK
Defense Minister Kim Dong-jin ordered a thorough check of the
country's military preparedness. The meeting was attended by
Gen. Yoon Yong-nam, chairman of the ROK Joint Chiefs of Staff,
chiefs of the three armed services and commanders of corps level
units and higher. This meeting, scheduled since last month, came
on the heels of the exchange of gunfire between naval vessels of
the two Koreas in ROK waters in the West Sea Thursday, a rare
event that, in hindsight, could push the two foes to the brink
of a war, according to some military experts. During the
meeting, it was decided to ensure the South's armed forces are
ready to deal with widely anticipated moves by the North to
mount small-scale provocations, and, based on this assumption,
to develop countermeasures by the ROK-US combined command
against such possible actions. In preparation against a war
started by the North, the participants in the meeting concurred
on the need to develop a comprehensive defense posture
incorporating the military, civilian and government sectors.
The ROK military officials agreed that Kim Jong-il is in full
control in the DPRK, and continues to promote a military-first
policy in order to keep the DPRK populace on its toes and to
strengthen the country's hands in negotiations with foreign
powers. One interpretation of this stance is that the North
still has unfailing faith in its military as the sole means to
realize its ambition to communize the South. In a letter sent to
commanders of regiments and higher units, Minister Kim ordered
readiness heightened against all military provocations,
observing that the North is still sparing no expense on military
preparedness despite the country being in dire straits. He
warned against a sympathetic atmosphere for the North in the
South resulting from reports of a massive famine facing the
entire country. (Korea Times, "NORTH KOREA KEEN ON MILITARY
DRILLS DESPITE FOOD SHORTAGES," 06/08/97)
4. Taiwan Cancels N-Waste Shipment
Taiwan scrapped plans to ship its nuclear waste to the DPRK and
is now looking for another country who will accept it, US
Representative Jay Kim said Thursday. Kim, a Korean-American
Congressman, said he was told by an official at the Taiwan
representative office of the change in Taipei's plan. The
Taiwanese official was quoted as saying that he had consulted
with his home government and had concluded that the transfer of
nuclear waste to the DPRK was realistically too difficult to
undertake. Kim said he was told Taiwan had decided to seek
another country and is soliciting other governments, including
Micronesia, with the hope that they will accept its nuclear
material. Kim said Taiwan's change of mind is apparently a
result of the strong pressure and opposition shown by the US
Congress and the international community. The government has not
yet received any notification from the Taiwanese government
about the reported cancellation of projected shipments of
nuclear waste, a Foreign Ministry official said yesterday. The
state-run Taiwan Power Company signed a deal in January with its
DPRK counterpart on the shipment of 60,000 tons of nuclear
waste, including gloves and clothing contaminated by radiation.
When US House Speaker Newt Gingrich visited Taiwan early this
year, Taiwanese President Lee Teng-hui hinted at the possibility
that it might reconsider the plan if the shipment might cause
environmental threats to the region. Meanwhile, the Korean
official confirmed that the US Congress passed a bill calling on
Taiwan to reconsider its plan to ship radioactive waste to the
DPRK. The bill notes that the DPRK had not yet revealed to the
international community the potential site for the storage of
the nuclear waste, and had dodged international monitoring. It
also pointed out the possibility that the potential transfer of
nuclear waste might threat the safety of 37,000 US servicemen
stationed in the ROK, as well as all Koreans. (Korea Times,
"TAIWAN CANCELS N-WASTE SHIPMENT TO NK," 06/07/97)
5. US Withholds Reaction on DPRK Nuke Test Attempt
The US State Department withheld reaction to reports that the
DPRK has nuclear weapons and that it even planned to undertake
an underground test, saying the source of the reports is yet
unclear. The State Department instead recalled the DPRK's
obligations under the Geneva Agreement, in which the Communist
state agreed to suspend its nuclear program. The Washington
Times reported that the Central Investigation Agency (CIA)
prepared a secret report based on revelations put forth by
former North Korean official Hwang Jang-yop, who defected to the
South in February. The report said the DPRK already had nuclear
weapons and tried to test them underground. "I cannot confirm
that Hwang actually said that or if he is in a position to
know," Department spokesman Nicholas Burns said in his noon
briefing. "He was an ideology theoretician in North Korea, I am
not aware that he was responsible for North Korea's nuclear
program," he said. Burns emphasized that the Geneva Agreement
had halted the DPRK's nuclear program, and that the US is
monitoring the DPRK's facilities under the agreement. (Korea
Times, "US WITHHELD REACTION TO REPORTS OF NK NUKE TEST
ATTEMPT," 06/07/97)
6. DPRK ACCUSES ROK OF MARITIME SHOOTING
The DPRK, in a show of audacity, boldly denounced the gunboat
standoff following a DPRK patrol boat's incursion across the
truce line in the West Sea on Thursday as "an armed provocation
perpetrated by the South," the Naewoe Press, the official DPRK
observer here, said yesterday. Naewoe made the report, saying
that the DPRK Central Broadcasting Station accused the ROK side
of having attempted to kidnap DPRK fishing boats. The DPRK
broadcast passed the buck to the ROK, arguing that the incident
was a deliberate ROK maneuver aimed at finding a way out of its
pending crisis by resorting to North-South confrontation a
intensified tensions, according to Naewoe. It was referring to a
Thursday afternoon incident in which a DPRK patrol boat
escorting a fishing fleet crossed the border line and held out
against challenges by ROK naval ships for about 50 minutes
before returning to the North. (Korea Times, "NORTH KOREA BLASTS
S. KOREA OVER MARITIME SHOOTING INCIDENT," 06/07/97)
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Produced by the Nautilus Institute for Security and Sustainable Development.
Wade Huntley: napsnet@nautilus.org
Choi Chung-moon: cily@star.elim.net
Peter Razvin: icipu@glas.apc.org
Chunsi Wu: dlshen@fudan.ihep.ac.cn
Dingli Shen: dlshen@fudan.ihep.ac.cn
Hiroyasu Akutsu: akutsu@glocomnet.or.jp
1. Japan-US Defense Agreement
II. Republic of Korea
2. US-Japan-ROK Talks on DPRK
3. DPRK Food Assessment
4. Report of DPRK Missile
1. Discrepancies on DPRK Food Assessment
2. KEDO Returns to ROK
3. ROK President Call for Defense Preparedness
4. Taiwan Cancels N-Waste Shipment
5. US Withholds Reaction on DPRK Nuke Test Attempt
6. DPRK Accuses ROK of Maritime Shooting
I. United States
II. Republic of Korea
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