The Nautilus Institute

Northeast Asia Peace and Security Network
For Tuesday, October 7, 1997, from Berkeley, California, USA

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In today's Report:

I. United States

II. Russian Federation

I. United States

1. ROK Aid to DPRK

The AP-Dow Jones News Service ("S. KOREA PROVIDES ANOTHER $5.25 MLN IN AID FOR N. KOREA," Seoul, 10/7/97) reported that the ROK government said Tuesday that it has provided US$4 million for the World Food Program (WFP) to buy nutritional supplements for starving children in the DPRK as part of a US$10 million package of food and other assistance that the ROK pledged in August. Separately, the ROK government said it also provided US$1.25 million for the WFP to finance its monitoring activities in the DPRK to ensure that aid reaches the needy. An ROK government report said that imports and international aid have reduced the DPRK's food shortage from an estimated 1.3 million tons to 295,000 tons. The PRC will continue shipments and the WFP has pledged 130,000 tons of additional food, which will help the DPRK make it to this fall's harvest, the report said.

2. ROK-DPRK Aviation Talks

The Associated Press ("TWO KOREAS NEAR DEAL TO OPEN SKIES," Seoul, 10/7/97) reported that ROK Foreign Ministry officials said that the ROK and DPRK resumed aviation talks Tuesday in Bangkok aimed at opening their skies to each others' flights. The DPRK accepted the ROK's demand that the two sides' air traffic control towers communicate through surface telephone lines crossing the border, the officials said, retracting its earlier insistence on using satellite connections.

3. Search for Remains of US MIAs

United Press International ("U.S. TEAM IN N. KOREA TO SEEK MIAS," Washington, 10/7/97) and the Associated Press ("US SEARCHES N KOREA FOR MIA REMAINS, Washington, 10/6/97) reported that the US Defense Department said Monday that a Defense Department team has returned to the DPRK for its fourth attempt this year to find the remains of US servicemen missing from the Korean War. The search is focused in an area where US ground troops were routed by PRC forces in the fall of 1950. The US team plans to interview military officials and local residents to track down possible sites where US soldiers were buried. The DPRK has invited a small group of family and veteran's organization officials to visit the joint operation site. The officials will leave the US Friday and are expected to stay in the DPRK for about four days. A repatriation ceremony for any remains excavated during the operation has been scheduled for Oct. 24 in Panmunjom.

4. ROK Presidential Candidate Accused of Slush Fund

Reuters ("S.KOREA'S OPPOSITION LEADER ACCUSED OF SLUSH FUND," Seoul, 10/7/97) reported that Kang Sam-jae of the ROK's ruling New Korea Party on Tuesday accused Kim Dae-jung, presidential candidate of the main opposition National Congress for New Politics, of amassing more than 67 billion won (US$73 million) in a "slush fund." Kang told a news conference his party uncovered the funds deposited in 365 false and proxy name accounts. "Another shocking factor we found is that some chaebol [business conglomerates] ... illegally helped Kim transfer about 6.2 billion won, some of it left over from Kim's election funds in 1992, to real name accounts," Kang said in a statement. Kim immediately denied the allegation as "nonsense." Kim's National Congress for New Politics said it plans to issue a statement later on Tuesday replying to the allegations.

5. Clinton-Jiang Summit Meeting

The Associated Press (Laura Myers, "CHINESE LEADER TO GET RED CARPET," Washington, 10/6/97) carried an article on PRC President Jiang Zemin's upcoming visit to the US, which will include the first formal summit between Jiang and US President Bill Clinton. While only symbolic progress is expected on trade and human rights, top Clinton aides are drafting new agreements on everything from national security and military cooperation to the environment and tax codes, the article said. "You don't expect dramatic results over individual meetings, but over a series of years -- like the relationship with the (former) Soviet Union," said Winston Lord, a former ambassador to the PRC and formerly the top State Department officer for East Asia. "The idea is, if the highest leaders get together things could happen." Clinton is expected to certify that the PRC is no longer helping other countries, particularly Pakistan and Iran, build nuclear weapons. This certification would clear the way for the US nuclear industry to sell reactors and technology to the PRC. Jiang and Clinton also aim to approve a US-PRC telephone hot line link. A military maritime cooperation pact is nearly ready to sign and environmental deals to combat global warming are in the works. In addition to his meeting with Clinton, Jiang will meet with congressional leaders. The US will affirm its "one China" policy at the summit of recognizing Beijing over Taipei, but Clinton will assert the US obligation to defend Taiwan, which China considers a renegade province. Clinton and Jiang also will talk about ways to reactivate stalled four-party peace talks for the Korean Peninsula.

II. Russian Federation

1. RF to Import DPRK Workers

Segodnya ("KOREANS ARE TO BE INVITED TO HARVEST," Moscow, 1, 9/30/97) reported that the Agrarian Party of Russia intends to actively facilitate the import of agricultural workers from the DPRK to work on RF fields. Party Chairman Mikhail Lapshin, who is on a "study" visit to the DPRK, said there that his delegation visited some DPRK agricultural cooperatives and learned that those who work there are "extremely disciplined and qualified persons." The APR plans to engage the DPRK workers in some areas of the RF Far East in proximity to the DPRK, where "there is a need for working hands despite the unemployment that exists there at first blush."

2. DPRK Ballistic Missile Test

Sovetskaya Rossia ("THESE DAYS .... TOKYO," Moscow, 3, 9/23/97) reported that Japanese media reported a US satellite detected preparations in the DPRK for new test launches of Rodong-2 ballistic missiles, which have reportedly been stationed on launching vehicles.

3. War Prospects on Korean Peninsula

Kommersant-daily's Andrey Ivanov ("NORTH KOREAN FRIGHTENS JAPAN," Moscow, 4, 10/1/97) reported that Hwang Jang-yop, the highest-ranking DPRK official to defect to the ROK, stated that the DPRK will try to take the ROK by force. According to Hwang, the DPRK can ensure non-interference of the USA by means of aiming its Rodong-1 mobile missiles equipped with nuclear warheads, already existing or to be produced quite soon, at US bases in Japan. However, Professor Evgeniy Bazhanov, Director of the Institute of Contemporary International Problems of the RF Foreign Ministry, argued that "An attack against South Korea would spell to Kim Jong-il his inevitable defeat and loss of the country and the power." Bazhanov argued that the DPRK cannot count on assistance from the PRC and RF, as it did during the Korean War. "Thus, the North Korean army, numerous but armed with obsolete weapons, would have to fight against not only the well-armed army of the South Korea, but against the US troops as well," Bazhanov said. He argued that "Kim Jong-il is not a suicidal person. He wants to retain the power and to that end is ready even to undertake a reforming of the country." Bazhanov said that despite the ROK Foreign Ministry's statement "that Moscow continues to play an important role in the process of peaceful reunification of Korea ... in reality ... Russia has lost all leverage for influencing Pyongyang. The DPRK has got no material incentives to heed to advice from Moscow: the economic cooperation is at zero level."

4. RF-Japan Relations

Nezavisimaia gazeta's Dmitriy Gornostayev ("MOSCOW AND TOKYO GET READY FOR KRASNOYARSK," Moscow, 2, 9/25/97) reported that RF Foreign Minister Yevgeniy Primakov held talks with Japanese Foreign Minister Keijo Obuti at the UN General Assembly session in New York. It was agreed that Primakov will visit Japan in late 1997 or early 1998, and that RF Premier Viktor Chernomyrdin will follow him in the first quarter of 1998. Gennadiy Tarasov, RF Foreign Ministry Information and Press Department Director, said that the preparations for the RF-Japan summit in Krasnoyarsk are in full sway, including ongoing intensive negotiations to draft a bilateral agreement on fishing in the Southern Kurils area.

Izvestia's Gennadiy Charodeyev (JAPANESE WILL GET PERMISSION TO FISH NEAR THE SOUTHERN KURILS," Moscow, 3, 9/24/97) reported that Vasiliy Saplin, Deputy Director of the Asia Department of the RF Foreign Ministry said that an RF-Japanese talks framework agreement on fishing near the Southern Kurils is "practically ready" but warned that sometimes euphoric reports made by the Japanese media are not justified because "there are still many unsolved problems."

Segodnya's Igor Popov ("SOUTHERN KURILS ON SALE," Moscow, 7, 9/24/97, and "SAKHALIN DECLARED WAR ON JAPAN," Moscow, 1, 7, 9/25/97) reported that officials in Moscow are considering a recent appeal made by some Sakhalin fishing companies urging for a "trade war" against Japan. The RF fishermen believe that there are artificial obstacles erected by Japan not to let them to the Japanese market, and that a criminal sector controlled jointly by RF and Japanese gangsters has emerged wherein nominally RF vessels actually belong to Japanese.

Izvestia's ("SOUTHERN KURILS IMPLORE JAPAN FOR HELP WITHOUT INVOLVING MOSCOW," Moscow, 1, 2, 10/4/97) reported that Vladimir Zema, the head of the Southern Kuril District Administration, told ITAR-TASS news agency that "If a referendum were to be held now on the destiny of the isles, the result would be unequivocal - to secede from Russia." Zema added that with the isles on the verge of economic collapse he does not care about political intricacies. Zema reportedly asked visiting Japanese Deputy Foreign Minister Minoru Tamba for some direct Japanese loans. Sovereignty over the islands has long been disputed between the RF and Japan, and Japanese destroyers recently passed through the Strait of Urup close to the disputed territory for the first time since the Second World War.

Sovetskaya Rossia ("THESE DAYS .... TOKYO," Moscow, 7, 10/4/97) reported that a responsible official of Japan's Foreign Ministry told a corespondent of ITAR-TASS news agency that Japan has no specific plans for economic cooperation with the RF in the Southern Kuril Isles but is ready to consider RF proposals on that matter. Japan also intends to continue its humanitarian aid to the islanders.

5. Japan-US Security Cooperation

Izvestia's Vasiliy Golovnin ("THE USA AND JAPAN TAKE CONTROL OVER EAST ASIA," Moscow, 3, 9/25/97) said that the new Guidelines for US-Japan Defense Cooperation "to some extent can be compared with the recent decisions on the NATO expansion to the East." Izvestia's author argued that the differences between the old Guidelines of 1978 and the new document mainly stem from the USSR's demise, and that the lack of a clear-cut definition of the term "emergency" in the new document allows for a rather broad interpretation. While Japan "has insisted" on its exemption from a commitment to fight outside its national borders, it still would have to conduct mine-sweeping activities beyond its waters, "and nobody so far has answered the question of how Japanese mine-sweepers and destroyers covering them should behave in case a potential adversary fires at them," Izvestia's author emphasized. The PRC has been the "loudest" in protesting against the Guidelines and officially demands that the US-Japan alliance should not even indirectly affect third parties, and is indignant at hints that Taiwan is to be included in the potential hostilities zone. Izvestia's author pointed out that "in Moscow, however, they seem to perceive the US-Japan alliance as a deterrence to China and North Korea," and therefore "Washington and Tokyo have not even included Moscow in the list of capitals where their special envoys will be sent to explain the meaning of the new American-Japanese alliance."

6. PRC-US Relations

Segodnya's Ivan Shomov ("LOVERS' QUARREL IS THEIR FUN," Moscow, 4, 10/2/97) reported that the US Congress Committee of Foreign Affairs on 9/30/97 approved a bill to spend US$30-40 million on the activities of the Radio Free Asia. Simultaneously a subcommittee of the same Committee voted in favor of denying US entry visas to those PRC officials who are implicated in human rights violations in the PRC, and "amusing as it may seem, Chinese Premier Li Peng, who is believed to be a major 'thug of freedom in the Tiananmen Square', might fall into that category." Also the US House of Representative has under its consideration a draft resolution urging the US Government to provide Taiwan with newest US anti-missile systems "in case of a necessity." [Ed. note: See "China Denounces Radio Free Asia" in the US Section of the October 2 Daily Report.]

7. RF Nuclear Weapons Safety

Nezavisimaia gazeta's Andrey Korbut ("DOLLAR PROTECTS RUSSIA'S NUCLEAR SECRETS," Moscow, 9/30/97) reported that Vladimir Orlov, Director of the Center for Political Studies warned of the possibility of incidents occurring during the transportation of nuclear ammunition due to inadequate funding for ensuring the safety of RF nuclear weapon facilities and physical protection. Yet General Igor Valynkin, Chief of the RF Defense Ministry directorate responsible for nuclear weapons safety, said recently that "the analysis shows .... so far there's been neither incidents and disasters connected with attempted thefts, takeovers and unauthorized activities regarding nuclear weapons nor preconditions for such."

Nezavisimaia gazeta ("'NUCLEAR BRIEFCASES' ARE A HOAX," Moscow, 2, 9/26/97) and Segodnya's Yevgeniy Kroutikov ("THE USA HAS BEEN IN POSSESSION OF KNAPSACK NUCLEAR AMMO FOR THIRTY YEARS ALREADY," Moscow, 3, 10/1/97) reported that Lieutenant General Igor Valynkin of the RF Defense Ministry said at a press conference that the RF does not possess portable nuclear mini-devices and therefore could not have "lost" them. Due to the technical difficulties of fully re-assembling such hypothetical devices, he maintained, "no country in the world including the USA could afford such." Segodnya also reported that General Kozlov, Chief-of-Staff of the Anti-Terror Department of the RF Federal Security Service, said that he has no information about the existence of such "knapsacks," but assumed that terrorists who lack special training would not be able to use such devices even if they could get a hold of them. According to Soldier of Fortune magazine, US Army Sergeant Roger Albertson confirmed that in the 1960s such devices were stockpiled at the US Clark Air Force Base in the Philippines, during the Vietnam War. US experts believe exactly similar devices appeared in the Soviet Armed Forces in the early 1980s and that there definitely was no need to re-assemble them every four months.

Izvestia's Yevgeniy Bai ("'NUCLEAR KNAPSACKS' SURFACED AT THE U.S. CONGRESS," Moscow, 2, 10/4/97) reported that Russian scholar Aleksey Yablokov, in a written report to the US Congress, confirmed General Aleksandr Lebed's recent remarks about the loss or theft of portable nuclear devices with which Soviet special troops were allegedly armed. Lebed himself agreed to personally testify before the US Congress in late October. A spokesman of the RF Federal Security Service told Izvestia that they have no data to confirm that the KGB possessed "small or super-small yield nuclear ammo."

8. RF Ratification of Chemical Weapons Ban Convention

Nezavisimaia gazeta's Igor Korotchenko ("CHEMICAL WEAPONS CONVENTION IS HARD TO IMPLEMENT," Moscow, 1, 9/27/97) reported that due to budgetary deficits only 5 per cent of the funds required by the RF this year for the elimination of chemical weapons will be received by December. While the US has demanded the physical destruction of all chemical weapons technologies, it has so far agreed to provide financing for only one facility for destruction of the weapons, meaning that even if the RF State Duma ratifies the international Convention on Banning Chemical Weapons it will be unable to implement it within 10 years. Also, the population of areas responsible for chemical weapons production are demanding compensatory development projects

9. RF Views of Land Mines Ban Convention

Nezavisimaia gazeta's Viktor Sokolov ("NOBODY LIKES ANTI-PERSONNEL MINES," Moscow, 4, 9/26/97) reported that the RF is unlikely to sign the Anti-Personnel Mines Ban Convention, as RF officials feel that the mines should be banned as a result of negotiations at the Geneva Disarmament Conference and that the mine-producing nations' interests should be taken into account. The report was followed by an opinion paper by Dr. Gwen Dyer, a British journalist, who attributed the US opposition to the ban firstly to US Senator Jesse Helms, who would block such a "treasonous" agreement coming from the Democratic President, and, secondly, to a wish to be on a par with the RF and the PRC.

10. RF President Will Visit Mongolia

Nezavisimaia gazeta ("YELTSIN WILL VISIT MONGOLIA," Moscow, 1, 9/24/97) reported that RF President Boris Yeltsin confirmed his intention to pay an official visit to Mongolia in a letter to Mongolia's President Natsagiyn Bagabandi.

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Wade L. Huntley:
Berkeley, California, United States

Timothy L. Savage:
Berkeley, California, United States

Shin Dong-bom:
Seoul, Republic of Korea

Choi Chung-moon:
Seoul, Republic of Korea

Hiroyasu Akutsu:
Tokyo, Japan

Peter Razvin:
Moscow, Russian Federation

Chunsi Wu:
Shanghai, People's Republic of China

Dingli Shen:
Shanghai, People's Republic of China

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