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Northeast Asia Peace and Security Network DAILY REPORT For Wednesday, January 21, 1998, from Berkeley, California, USA |
1. Light-Water Reactor Project
US State Department Spokesman James Rubin ("STATE DEPARTMENT NOON
BRIEFING,"
USIA Transcript, 01/20/98) denied that the US-DPRK nuclear agreement has
been ineffective. Rubin stated, "we believe that the agreement that led
to the freezing of North Korea's nuclear program was a landmark
achievement that avoided great dangers; that we believe that that
agreement is proceeding apace; that the IAEA is able to verify and
inspect what it needs to verify and inspect; that we have a long way to
go before that agreement is fully implemented." He added that "a series
of inspections" of DPRK nuclear sites are necessary "before we move to
the light water reactors and the provision of the key technology."
2. US Defense Secretary's ROK Visit
Reuters (Charles Aldinger, "COHEN DEFENDS LANDMINES ON KOREAN BORDER,"
Camp Bonifas, ROK, 01/21/98) and the Associated Press (Robert Burns,
"COHEN ARGUES NEED FOR LANDMINES," Camp Bonifas, ROK, 01/21/98) reported
that US Defense Secretary William Cohen inspected military defenses on
the ROK-DPRK border Wednesday and defended the US refusal to sign the
global treaty banning anti-personnel land mines. Cohen stated, "Without
the landmines, the capacity for the forces in the north would be
certainly eased to roll through this area to downtown Seoul." An
anonymous US military official said that nearly a million mines have
been buried by ROK forces along the border and that the US is prepared
to quickly add millions of its own mines if war were to break out. He
added that 35 people had been killed and another 43 injured in mine
accidents along the border since 1992, and that about one-third were
civilians. Cohen was scheduled to hold talks Thursday with ROK
President-elect Kim Dae-jung and outgoing President Kim Young-sam. He
will also meet Foreign Minister Yoo Chong-ha and Defense Minister Kim
Dong-Jin.
3. DPRK Famine
Agence France-Presse ("2.8 MILLION NORTH KOREANS DIED FROM 'NATURAL
CALAMITIES'," Beijing, 01/20/98) reported that the PRC's official Xinhua
News Agency quoted Cha Limsok, deputy director of the Farm Produce
Bureau of the DPRK Agricultural Commission, as saying Tuesday that a
total of 2.8 million DPRK citizens have died of "natural calamities."
Cha stated, "Because of summer's serious drought, the amount of food per
person in the Democratic People's Republic of Korea from October 1997 to
September 1998 is a mere 180 grams a day." Typhoons and tidal waves
which hit the DPRK's western coastal grain-producing region in late
August caused an additional grain loss of 700,000 tons. Cha's
statements marked the first time that the DPRK has revealed such
statistics. He said that the country's gross grain output in 1997
amounted to 2.685 million tons, while the minimum requirement between
October 1997 and September 1998 is estimated at 4.022 million tons.
After deducting seeds and feed grains, the DPRK only had 1.422 million
tons of grain in storage by the end of September. The DPRK government
plans to import 500,000 tons of grain and will appeal to the
international community for another 700,000 tons of aid in grain, the
report said. Cha said that the DPRK government and people would "try
their best to achieve a good harvest in 1998, but are still short of
more than 7,000 tons of barley seeds, 1,000 tons of corn seeds and
considerable amounts of chemical fertilizers and pesticides."
4. ROK Labor Agreement
The Wall Street Journal (Michael Schuman and Hae Won Choi, "KOREANS
AGREE TO SHARE BURDEN, BUT LAYOFF ISSUE STILL UNRESOLVED," Seoul,
01/21/98), the New York Times (Stephanie Strom, "SOUTH KOREAN UNIONS TO
ACCEPT SOME LAYOFFS," Seoul, 01/21/98),
and the Washington Post (Don Kirk, "SEOUL ACCORD SKIRTS ISSUE OF
LAYOFFS, Seoul, 01/21/98) reported that a committee of ROK unionists,
government officials, and business leaders signed an agreement to share
the burden of economic restructuring, but failed to reach a definitive
agreement on labor reform. The committee agreed that the government
will devise a plan to decrease the budget, scale down the bureaucracy,
expand the social-welfare system, and develop solutions to deal with
expected rises in unemployment and prices. Businesses will undertake
restructuring while avoiding indiscriminate layoffs; labor will allow
adjustments to wages and working hours to minimize unemployment at
troubled companies; and labor and management will refrain from disputes.
The statement also said that more talks between the three parties will
take place next month. However, Choi Seung-hwe, head of the planning
department of the ROK Confederation of Trade Unions, said that the
agreement "doesn't mean that we will agree with passing the labor laws"
which would allow for layoffs.
5. ROK Financial Crisis
The AP-Dow Jones News Service ("CAMDESSUS: CRITICAL PHASE OF S. KOREA
CRISIS HAS PAST," Paris, 01/21/98) reported that International Monetary
Fund (IMF) Managing Director Michel Camdessus said Wednesday that a
critical phase in the ROK financial crisis is over. He added that he is
comforted that ROK President-elect Kim Dae-jung seems to have decided to
sort out the problems in his country.
6. US Security Policy in Asia
US Secretary of Defense William Cohen ("SEC. COHEN STATEMENT AT 1/21
TOKYO PRESS CONFERENCE," Tokyo, USIA Text, 01/21/98) told a press
conference in Tokyo Wednesday that US security policy in Asia rests on
"four essential pillars." Cohen stated that the pillars were, "First,
bilateral relations, especially a strong security alliance with Japan.
Secondly, multilateral relations such as the ASEAN Regional Forum.
Third, engagement with China. And fourth, control of weapons of mass
destruction. The forward presence of nearly 100,000 American troops in
the Asia-Pacific region is the foundation that supports these four
pillars." Cohen added, "Peace and prosperity in the Asia-Pacific region
rests on leadership from the United States and Japan, and our alliance
has never been stronger."
7. PRC-Taiwan Relations
The Washington Post (Steven Mufson, "CHINA OFFERS TAIWAN TALKS WITHOUT
PRECONDITIONS, BUT TAIPEI IS SKEPTICAL," Beijing, 01/21/98, A17)
reported that Taiwan analysts reacted with skepticism to the PRC's offer
to hold talks without any preconditions. Sheu Ke-sheng, vice chairman
of the Taiwanese cabinet's Mainland Affairs Council, said that "the so-
called one-China principle itself is a precondition." Andrew Yang,
general secretary of the Center for Advanced Policy Studies in Taiwan,
stated, "Instead of bashing Taipei, now China wants to encourage Taipei
to open a dialogue. China sees more problems in the future in bringing
about a consensus in Taiwan about talking to China." However, he added,
"I don't see any high-level political dialogue in the foreseeable
future.... Both sides still have suspicions toward each other."
Meanwhile Chen Yunlin, a senior Taiwan-affairs official in the Chinese
Communist Party, wrote in the official publication Cross-Strait
Relations that the PRC is not making "unreasonable demands" on Taiwan.
Chen stated that, "The name of the central government will not be used,
[and] still less will the mainland urge a Taiwanese leader to visit the
mainland as Taiwan governor."
8. Taiwanese Diplomacy
The Associated Press (Christopher Bodeen, "TAIWAN MAY AID CHINA'S
ECONOMY," Taipei, 01/21/98) and Reuters ("TAIWAN PREMIER MEETS
INDONESIA'S SUHARTO -REPORTS," Taipei, 01/20/98) reported that,
according to several Taiwan newspapers, Taiwan Premier Vincent Siew on
Tuesday met with Indonesian President Suharto to discuss Asia's
financial turmoil and bilateral cooperation. However, Taiwan government
spokesman David Lee, who accompanied Siew on the private visit, declined
to comment on the meeting. The China Times said that Siew promised to
provide "appropriate aid" to Indonesia. In Singapore on Monday, Siew
said that his tour of Southeast Asian countries was for economic and not
political reasons. However, Vice Foreign Minister Chen Chien-jen said
that Siew's visits "demonstrate our determination to break out of
diplomatic isolation." According to Taiwan newspapers, Chiang Pin-kung,
Taiwan's top economic policy-maker, has suggested establishing a US$50
billion to US$100 billion fund under the Asia Development Bank for
bailing out regional economies, with Taiwan contributing more than US$1
billion to the fund. Meanwhile, PRC Foreign Ministry spokesman Shen
Guofang on Tuesday called Siew's trips a "well-planned and premeditated
political move."
9. Japanese-Russian Peace Talks
Agence France-Presse ("MOSCOW PLAYS DOWN RUSSIAN-JAPANESE MEETING
THURSDAY," Moscow, 01/21/98) reported that Russia's Interfax news agency
cited Russian officials on Wednesday as saying that "nothing
sensational" should be expected from talks Thursday between Russian
Deputy Foreign Minister Grigory Karasin and his Japanese counterpart,
Minoru Tamba. Karasin stated that both sides "are actively implementing
the Yeltsin-Hashimoto plan adopted at the informal meeting in
Krasnoyarsk in November 1997."
10. Nuclear Waste Shipment to Japan
The AP-Dow Jones News Service ("SHIP WITH RADIOACTIVE NUCLEAR WASTE
LEAVES FRANCE FOR JAPAN," Paris, 01/21/98) reported that a ship loaded
with highly radioactive nuclear waste left a French port for Japan
Wednesday by way of the Panama Canal. The US State Department said
earlier this week that the Clinton administration would not intervene in
the shipment despite protests by Greenpeace and the Nuclear Control
Institute that the shipments are unsafe.
1. Alleged DPRK Executions
Nine high-ranking DPRK officials were executed last September for
treason and espionage in two separate cases, an unnamed source said upon
returning from Pyongyang. Among the nine were seven leaders of an
important umbrella youth organization, the Kim Il-sung Socialist Youth
League, the source said. The other two executed were So Kwan-hi, the
ruling Workers Party secretary in charge of agriculture, and four-star
general Ri Bong-won of the political bureau of the Korean People's Army
(KPA). The general was the secretary in charge of organization of the
political bureau of the KPA general staff, a powerful position that
governs personnel movements of the KPA. The two allegedly belonged to a
five-member spy ring operated by the ROK for many years, the source
said. "Following the two incidents, a sweeping house cleaning of the
party and the Youth League has been under way, which is expected to be
completed by early next month," the source told Agence France-Presse.
Heading the list of the seven executed Youth League leaders was Choe
Hyun-dok, one of the 10 members of the Foreign Affairs Committee of the
Supreme People's Assembly, the source said. Choe, an adopted son of So
Yun-suk, Chief Secretary of the ruling Workers Party of Korea (WPK)
Provincial Committee of South Pyongan Province, was the president of one
of three trading companies operated by the Youth League. He was also
one of the seven secretaries of the League, chairman of the Korea-
Mauritius Friendship Association, and one of 10 vice chairmen of the
Korean Committee for Solidarity with the World People (KCSWP). The
source said that three other members of the alleged five-member spy ring
included former South Pyongan Province party secretary in charge Pi
Chang-rin, former Kaesong City party secretary in charge Kim Ki-sun, and
an unidentified director of the national security department. (Korea
Times, "NINE HIGH-RANKING N KOREAN OFFICIALS EXECUTED FOR TREASON,
ESPIONAGE:AFP," 01/21/98)
2. DPRK Submarine Infiltration
Convicted spy and former US navy intelligence analyst Robert Kim claimed
on January 19 that the US government knew of two DPRK submarines
mounting an infiltration operation into the ROK in September 1996, but
did not inform the ROK. In an interview with the Chosun Ilbo at the
federal penitentiary in Pennsylvania, Kim said that he had access to all
information through the navy's computer system and intelligence office
links. Kim passed on information about the infiltrating submarines to
the Korean government through a Colonel Baek, ROK defense attache to the
US. Subsequently, one submarine was grounded off Kaneung and eventually
captured. However, the other submarine was further south and able to
escape. Kim claimed that US intelligence officials were tracking the
DPRK submarines every three hours. (Chosun Ilbo, "CONVICTED SPY CLAIMS
US KNEW ABOUT NK SUB," 01/21/98)
3. US Defense Secretary's ROK Visit
Unnamed sources said on January 20 that, upon his arrival in the ROK on
Wednesday, US Defense Secretary William Cohen will visit a mine field
near the Demilitarized Zone and reconfirm the US position that land
mines are needed for defensive purposes in the ROK. When he visits Camp
Bonifas near the truce village of Panmunjom, Cohen, emphasizing the
unique situation here, will reiterate why the ROK should remain exempt
from the global ban on anti-personnel land mines, the sources added.
Cohen is also scheduled to visit the 2nd US Army Division north of
Seoul. He will meet President Kim Young-sam, President-elect Kim Dae-
jung and Defense Minister Kim Dong-jin tomorrow before returning to
Washington. ROK and US officials said that Cohen would express concerns
about the ROK's move to cut defense spending for this year because of
the economic turmoil. Cohen will also talk with Minister Kim about
Seoul's suggestion to reduce its share of the financial burden in
hosting US troops here. (Korea Herald, Lee Sung-yul, "COHEN TO REAFFIRM
SUPPORT FOR LAND MINES IN ROK," 01/21/98)
4. ROK-PRC Fisheries Talks
ROK and PRC officials on Tuesday began two-day working-level talks in
Seoul on a bilateral fisheries accord. The first-day session of the
talks focused on temporary measures to regulate fishing in the waters
between the two countries. The two sides tried to settle their
differences over the temporary fishing zone between their exclusive
seas, an ROK Foreign Ministry official said. The ROK, troubled by
illegal operations by PRC fishing boats, wants a smaller temporary zone
than that of the PRC. Shin Jung-seung, deputy director-general for
Asia-Pacific affairs at the Foreign Ministry, is heading the ROK
delegation. The PRC delegation is led by Liu-Da-qun, deputy director-
general for treaties and legal affairs at the PRC Foreign Ministry.
(Korea Herald, "KOREA-PRC FISHERIES TALKS UNDERWAY," 01/21/98)
5. ROK-Japan Fisheries Dispute
ROK President Kim Young-sam and President-elect Kim Dae-jung on January
20 issued a joint warning against Tokyo's unilateral move to abolish a
Korea-Japan fishery agreement. "Unilateral termination of the Korea-
Japan fishery pact will have negative effects on our friendly relations
and we hope that Japan will reconsider the issue carefully," the two
leaders said in a statement. They issued the statement through their
spokesmen after their weekly consultative meeting at Chongwadae. (Korea
Herald, "2 KIMS WARN JAPAN NOT TO ABANDON FISHERIES TREATY," 01/21/98)
1. Light-Water Reactor Project
China Daily ("JAPAN, KEDO SEEKING WAYS TO SPLIT PLANT COSTS," 01/20/98,
p. 11) reported that members of the Korean Peninsula Energy Development
Organization (KEDO), which is building two nuclear power plants for the
DPRK, will meet in New York next month to discuss ways of splitting the
project's US$5.2 billion cost. According to a Japanese government
official, KEDO remains committed to the project, despite economic
trouble with two of its key members, Japan and the ROK. "We agreed how
much the project will cost," said a Japanese Foreign Ministry official,
who spoke on condition of anonymity. "Now it is time to discuss how to
shoulder the burden." However, the official cautioned, the February
meeting is unlikely to yield a final agreement. "This is not one of
those matters that can be agreed upon after just one meeting," he said,
adding that no member country has specified the amount of its
contribution.
2. DPRK Famine
Wen Hui Daily ("DPRK OFFICIALLY MAKES PUBLIC ITS FOOD SITUATION,"
01/21/98, p. 3) reported that for the 1998 agricultural year (from
October 1997 to September 1998), the DPRK needs at least 4.02 million
tons of grain, but that it is short at present by over 60 percent of
this figure. The DPRK urgently wants international help, the report
said. These data were announced by a deputy director in charge of
agricultural production under the Agricultural Committee of the
Administration Council of the DPRK, when he was interviewed by reporters
for the New China News Agency. This is the first time for the DPRK
Government to make public this kind of situation. According to this
deputy director, the total grain output of the DPRK last year was 2.69
million tons. After processing and deducting grain used as seeds and
fodder, the grain reserves of the DPRK were only 1.42 million tons.
This means that in the 1998 agricultural year, the average daily food
ration for each DPRK citizen is only 180 grams. Thus the DPRK
Government plans to import 0.5 million tons of grain in the new
agricultural year and hopes the international community will supply 0.7
million tons of grain. In addition, the DPRK official said, his
government plans to expand the sown area in 1998 in order to overcome
the natural disasters and strive for a good harvest. However, the DPRK
also lacks farm materials such as fertilizer and herbicide and wants
international help in this regard too.
3. US Defense Secretary's Visit to PRC
China Daily ("ACCORD BENEFITS CHINA, US," 01/20/98, p. 1) reported that
PRC Defense Minister Chi Haotian and his US counterpart William Cohen,
who was visiting the PRC, signed an agreement on January 19 in Beijing
on the establishment of a consultation mechanism to strengthen military
maritime safety. Chi said that the agreement is a concrete embodiment
of the positive efforts made by the PRC and the US and will help
safeguard peace and stability in the Asia-Pacific region and the world
as a whole. PRC Vice-Premier and Foreign Minister Qian Qichen met with
Cohen in the afternoon of January 19. Qian said, "We hold a positive
attitude towards the increase of relations between the two military
forces and believe that such relations will gain greater progress with
the further improvement and development of relations between the two
countries." He stressed that the key for the healthy and stable
development of bilateral ties is "to stick to the principles of the
three Sino-US joint communiques and to appropriately handle the Taiwan
issue."
Jie Fang Daily ("CHINA AND US SIGN AGREEMENT ON ESTABLISHMENT OF
MILITARY CONSULTATION MECHANISM," 01/20/98, p.3) reported that Chinese
Defense Minister Chi Haotian held talks with US Defense Secretary
William Cohen on January 19. They frankly and sincerely exchanged their
views on international and regional situations, bilateral relations and
other issues of common interest. Chi pointed out that some elements are
continuously warning of the so-called "China threat" in the
international arena and regard the PRC's economic development and
military modernization, which is needed for justified defense, as one of
the unstable elements in this area. These arguments are unreasonable,
Chi said. Regarding bilateral relations, Chi said that the Sino-US
relationship has made important progress in the past year. At present,
Sino-US relations are facing new developing opportunities. However,
there are some problems in Sino-US ties, among which the Taiwan issue is
the most important and sensitive one. Cohen said that the US will
continue to implement its engagement policy with the PRC. In this new
year, the US takes a positive attitude towards the development of the
military-military relations between the two countries.
China Daily ("SINO-US ARMY TIES `POSITIVE'," 98/01/21, p. 1) said that
the PRC views the development of military relations and high-level
exchanges between the PRC and US armies as a positive step forward. PRC
President Jiang Zemin made the remarks during a meeting with US
Secretary of Defense William Cohen in Beijing on January 20. Recalling
his visit to the US last fall, Jiang said that promoting understanding,
expanding common ground, and creating the future was the trip's goal.
Jiang expressed gratitude for US aid to the PRC's Zhangbei area, which
was rocked by an earthquake measuring more than 6.0 on the Richter scale
earlier this month. Addressing a press conference at the end of his
three-day visit, Cohen said the trip helped promote bilateral and
military relations between the nations. Cohen hopes both nations'
defense departments will continue to expand cooperation. Both sides, he
added, will adopt a modest, step-by-step approach to establishing
mechanisms to increase confidence and reduce misunderstandings.
4. PRC-US Relations
Jie Fang Daily published a commentary by Professor Yu Xintian, deputy
president of the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences ("US POLICY TO
CHINA STILL HAS UNCERTAINTIES," 01/19/98, p. 3), which said that US
policy towards the PRC still has uncertainties, although the Sino-US
relationship entered into a new stage after PRC President Jiang Zemin's
visit to the US. According to the author, the lack of a long-term
strategy of US foreign policy and the US doubt about the goals and
tendencies of the PRC's modernization are the two main factors resulting
in the uncertainties. However, she pointed out that after President
Jiang's visit to the US, the US Government at least appeared positive
about the development of Sino-US relations. Jiang's visit to the US
defined the framework of Sino-US strategic relations.
5. Taiwanese Diplomacy
According to People's Daily ("FM COMMENTS ON TAIWANESE VISIT TO
SOUTHEAST ASIAN COUNTRIES," 01/21/98, p. 4), PRC Foreign Ministry
spokesman Shen Guofang said in a news briefing on January 20 that some
political figures of Taiwan have recently made frequent trips to some
Southeast Asian countries and conducted activities there, capitalizing
on those countries' temporary difficulties caused by the financial
crisis and carrying out "pragmatic diplomacy" in this region in an
attempt to realize Taiwan's political ambitions. Shen stated,
"Evidently, this is a well- planned and premeditated political move
aimed at upgrading Taiwan's so-called substantive relationship with
Southeast Asian countries and furthermore undermining the friendly
relations and cooperation between China and the countries concerned."
He added, "What the Taiwanese authorities have done is unpopular and
doomed to failure." The spokesman reiterated that there is only one
China in the world and that Taiwan is an inalienable part of Chinese
territory. He went on to say that the PRC Government understands the
special difficulties and predicament of some Southeast Asian countries
and therefore takes no objection to their non-governmental economic
contacts and trade with Taiwan. "However, we are resolutely opposed to
any form of official contacts with Taiwan by countries having diplomatic
relations with China," Shen said. The PRC hopes that Southeast Asian
countries will maintain vigilance against the political motives of
Taiwanese authorities and properly handle their relations with Taiwan.
6. PRC Military Sales
China Daily ("MILITARY SHINES IN CIVILIAN SECTOR," 01/18/98, p. 1)
reported that Xie Mingbao, deputy director of the planning department of
the Commission of Science, Technology, and Industry for the National
Defense Ministry of the PRC, estimated that between 1200 and 1300
converted military factories had absorbed about US$4.5 billion in
foreign investment by the end of 1997. Foreign investment is especially
welcome in the ship-building, automobile, computer and other high-
technology sectors. These sectors demand mass production and the strong
research and technology input the former military firms can supply, the
deputy director said. Former military firms have also outdone civilian
competitors in the production of automobiles, ships, motorcycles,
televisions and other electronic products. These products make up the
bulk of civilian exports by military firms. Exports by 1400 military
firms and research institutes in 1997 are expected to add up to US$7
billion, half of which were civilian products, Xie estimated. [Ed.
note: See "PRC Military Sales" in the US Section of the January 20
Daily Report.]
1. RF Views of ROK
Nezavisimaia gazeta ("MOSCOW-SEOUL: WAITING FOR A BETTER TIME," Moscow,
6, 1/20/98 and "AN EXPERIMENT IN COMPARATIVE POLITOLOGY," Moscow, 6,
1/21/98) in two consecutive issues published articles by Professor
Viktor Kouvaldin and Professor Andrey Melvil dedicated to the results of
a Russian-Korean Civil Forum held recently in Moscow. In preparation
for the forum, a public opinion poll was conducted in the RF, which
showed that only 5 percent of RF citizens are well informed about the
ROK, mainly young high-income people in big RF cities. Only 1-2 percent
associated the word "Korea" with the DPRK. 39 percent believe that
Korean unification will come soon, while 21 percent doubt it. Only 5
percent think the DPRK system will prevail, while 35 percent believe
that the unification will follow the German pattern: that is, on the
basis of the ROK system. Among young high-income big city dwellers, 50
percent hold the latter opinion. Based on the forum results, the
authors found many similarities between the RF and the ROK in terms of
the economic role of the state and big corporations, the strong
presidency, and the way democracy was to a large extent introduced by
the previous ruling elite. There are differences, naturally, but both
countries seem to have demonstrated that the classic modernization model
with a "wild market" cannot work today. "The state is the most
important generator of reforms, unless, of course, it itself is not
privatized and plundered by the reformers."
2. RF-Japan Territorial Dispute
Segodnya's Vasiliy Golovnin ("JAPANESE ARE AFRAID TO BE LATE IN THE
KURILS GAME," Moscow, 1, 6, 1/15/98) reported that, regarding the South
Kurils issue, numerous Japanese politicians, diplomats, and experts
nowadays attach an almost mystic significance to the year of 1998 and
urge the government "not to waste time." Consultations between Deputy
Foreign Ministers of the RF and Japan to develop a new format for RF-
Japan peace treaty negotiations are scheduled to start in Moscow on
January 21, and the Japanese side is expected to deal quickly with
procedural matters and grapple with the main provisions of the future
treaty without, however, direct demands to "return the illegally
occupied isles." Rather they are likely to move the talks to
practicalities of "purely technical demarcation," the way it was done
between the RF and the PRC. In February, Japan's Foreign Minister Keijo
Obuti will pay a visit to Moscow, to be followed by the second informal
summit and Japanese Prime Minister Ryutaro Hashimoto's visit to Russia
in the autumn. Japan might even finally agree to leave some
"administrative rights" to the RF for some time after the signing of the
treaty, but Japan will not sign it if its sovereignty over the isles is
not mentioned at least generally. However, the chances of Japan getting
the isles remain "extremely vague." Much will depend on its ability to
prove to the RF government and public that it really wishes good
relations and not merely a land acquisition to revise the results of
World War II.
3. RF-Japan Fisheries Agreement
Segodnya's Andrey Ilyashenko ("RUSSIAN-JAPANESE DIPLOMATIC CATCH,"
Moscow, 6, 1/13/98) reported that on December 30, after more than two
years of talks, an intergovernmental arrangement was agreed upon by the
RF and Japan concerning Japanese fishing in the area of the Southern
Kurils, and an agreement on related issues is to be signed soon.
According to the agreement, Japanese authorities, not RF ones, shall
investigate and punish Japanese vessels caught poaching there. However,
the poachers shall remain "the objects" for the RF Border Guards and the
RF Fishing Inspectorate. Japan is to get 2.2 thousand tons quota to
catch octopi and other sea products, but will pay the RF 20 million yen
in compensation and supply some 15 million yen worth of fishing
equipment. Segodnya's author said the compromise creates "very
important prerequisites, including psychological ones, for talks on a
peace treaty between Russia and Japan.
4. RF-PRC Military Cooperation
Nezavisimaia gazeta ("RUSSIAN-CHINESE MILITARY COOPERATION," Moscow, 1,
1/15/98) reported that Andrey Kokoshin, RF State Military Inspector and
RF Defense Council Secretary, said that RF-PRC military cooperation in
1997 was developing successfully. He stressed that the RF was
developing deeper security relationships with other Asia-Pacific
countries as well.
Nezavisimaia gazeta's Maksim Dmitriyev ("RUSSIAN DELEGATION WILL VISIT
CHINA," Moscow, 2, 1/17/98) reported that, on an invitation from the PRC
Central Military Council, an RF delegation headed by Andrey Kokoshin
will pay an official visit to the PRC next week. The PRC Central
Military Council is headed by PRC Chairman Jiang Zemin.
5. RF-PRC Nuclear Cooperation
Izvestia's Aleksandr Platkovskiy ("A RUSSIAN NUCLEAR POWER PLANT FOR
CHINA," Moscow, 1, 12/30/97) and Finansoviye izvestia's Konstantin
Baskayev ("RUSSIAN REACTORS WILL BE MOUNTED AT NUCLEAR POWER PLANTS IN
CHINA," Moscow, I, 12/30/97) reported that RF First Deputy Premier Boris
Nemtsov signed in Beijing an RF-PRC contract under which the RF will
supply two VVER-1000 light water reactors of 1 million kilowatt capacity
each for Lianyungang nuclear power plant in Jiangsu Province of the PRC.
The total cost of the contract was not revealed, but experts estimate it
at US$2 billion. The nuclear power plant would be the largest in the
PRC. The plant construction is expected to be completed in 8 years.
Also, the RF-PRC contract might be expanded in case of plant enlargement
later.
6. RF-US-PRC Relations
Nezavisimaia gazeta's Aleksey Poushkov ("YEVGENIY PRIMAKOV: 'I FEEL THE
PRESIDENT'S TRUST'"," Moscow, 1, 5, 12/30/97) interviewed Yevgeniy
Primakov, RF Foreign Minister. Asked if there is a "battle for China"
going on, Primakov opposed any "extrapolation" of past situations to the
present. "Now it is impossible to play the Chinese trump card between
the US and us, because the card is impossible to lift. It cannot to be
thrown on the table," he said, adding that the PRC is "a player that
participates on an equal basis in international affairs."
7. US Defense Secretary's Trip to East Asia
Izvestia's Aleksandr Platkovski ("MILITARY PRESENCE INSTEAD OF AID,"
Moscow, 3, 1/21/98) reported that US Defense Secretary William Cohen on
a trip to East Asia visited Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand,
and the PRC. In Southeast Asia he spoke in favor of an increased
military, political, and economic role for the US in the region.
Reciprocally, Singapore pledged US$35 million investment in construction
of a new port facility for US ships and nuclear submarines, while the
Philippines agreed to resume military cooperation, in particular to
actively train their officers at US centers. In the PRC, the US Defense
secretary visited an air defense center near Beijing. PRC Defense
Minister Chi Haotian told him that "China will make every effort to
achieve the goal of establishing a constructive strategic partnership
between the two countries." As for Cohen's argument that the "US
military presence in Asia is beneficial for China's economic
prosperity," the PRC military would agree with that provided that the US
does not interfere in Taiwanese affairs and respects the PRC as a world
power.
Kommersant-daily's Andrey Ivanov ("PENTAGON INVITES THE PRC TO
COOPERATE," Moscow, 5, 1/21/98) reported that US Defense Secretary
William Cohen completed his 3 days visit to the PRC, during with he met
with PRC Defense Minister Chi Haotian and signed the first ever naval
security consultations agreement between the defense departments of the
two countries. According to the agreement, the parties will hold
regular meeting of their respective fleet commanders and create a
mechanism for communications between their ships. Cohen also visited an
air defense center near Beijing, the very existence of which the PRC
denied just a month ago. However, the article said that "Russian
weapon-makers do not have to worry," as the US Defense Secretary told
his hosts that the US would not sell arms to the PRC, except spare parts
for "Sikorski" helicopters, the exports of which were canceled after the
Tiananmen Square events in 1989.
8. PRC-Taiwan Relations
Kommersant-daily ("CHINA IS READY TO START TALKS WITH TAIWAN," Moscow,
5, 1/21/98) reported that PRC Foreign Ministry Spokesman Shen Guofang
said Tuesday that the PRC is ready to start political talks with Taiwan
without any preliminary conditions. Yet Taiwan's official reaction is
one of wariness. Shen said that adherence to the "one China" principle
is not a precondition because "this fact is recognized on both sides of
the Straits of Taiwan."
9. Taiwanese Diplomacy
Segodnya's Natalia Roslova ("TO GET OUT OF THE CRISIS THE PHILIPPINES GO
IN FOR WORSENING RELATIONS WITH CHINA," Moscow, 6, 1/14/98) reported
that the Philippines' President Fidel Ramos had a meeting on January 12
with Taiwanese Premier Vincent Siew, who "quite unexpectedly" visited
the Philippines. Philippines officials said that Siew was not
officially invited and no talks were planned. According to Taiwanese
officials, some Southeast Asian nations in financial crisis turned to
Taiwan for help, and Taiwan agreed to invest US$4 billion into a new
regional foundation, which caused a negative reaction on the part of the
International Monetary Fund. The PRC Embassy expressed great
displeasure about the Ramos-Siew talks, but Philippines' Finance
Minister Roberto de Scampo said the parties discussed only "global
issues" and did not touch upon diplomatic relations problem. [Ed. Note:
See "Taiwanese Diplomacy" in the US Section of the January 14 Daily
Report.]
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