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Northeast Asia Peace and Security Network DAILY REPORT For Tuesday, February 24, 1998, from Berkeley, California, USA |
1. Light-Water Reactor Project
Nuclear Fuel (Mark Hibbs, "IAEA CAN'T USE TRIED AND TRUE MEANS TO RECONSTRUCT
DPRK REACTOR HISTORY," Bonn, 02/23/98) reported that US technical experts said last week that the
four years that has passed since the DPRK's Yongbyon nuclear reactor was de-fueled makes it impossible
for the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to verify the DPRK's nuclear material inventory using
conventional means. One unnamed expert stated, "If we had gotten to the fuel inside of two years we
could have done it. But with time, the statistical differentials for critical isotopes have become fuzzy, you
won't get precise answers. It's now too late." According to the article, the issue is crucial to the light-water
reactor project, since the US cannot conclude a nuclear cooperation agreement with the DPRK unless the
IAEA verifies that all the DPRK's nuclear material is accounted for. The expert said that the reactor
operating records can provide some help, "but these have to be trustworthy." He added that, while a
forensic analysis of the records could be carried out to examine their age and authenticity, "the IAEA
doesn't even have assurances that the North Koreans have even kept all the records, let alone have they
handed them over." Officials and experts estimated last week that it would take five to seven years to meet
the technical and political demands of verification, which could postpone completion of the reactors until
2008. One IAEA official in Vienna stated, "For the last four years, there has been zero DPRK cooperation,
and we don't see any down the road."
2. ROK-DPRK Relations
Reuters ("SOUTH KOREAN LEADER: DON'T EXPECT REUNIFICATION SOON," Seoul, 02/23/98)
reported that ROK President-elect Kim Dae-jung told the British Broadcasting Corp. on Tuesday that the
reunification of Korea is at least a decade away. Kim stated, "The South Korean economy is not strong
enough to afford this problem. But I think if we succeed to realize good relations with North Korea for
peace and exchanges, then as we are in the same race, in 10 years or so we can enter the first stage of
unification." He added that he expected relations with the DPRK to improve under his administration,
saying that the DPRK has "no reason to criticize me." He also pointed out that, under the Kim Young-sam
administration, the DPRK sought to exploit differences between the US and the ROK to drive a wedge
between the two sides, which will not be possible given Kim Dae-jung's good relations with the West. Kim
concluded, "I think North Korea may change its attitude. But if not, I'll wait. I'll not be impatient. Timing
is not North Korea's but ours, I think."
Reuters (Jane Lee, "BUSINESS TO LEAD S.KOREA FOREIGN/DOMESTIC POLICY," Seoul, 02/24/98)
reported that, according to a statement of policies called the "100 government tasks" issued earlier this
month by the presidential transition team, incoming ROK President Kim Dae-jung will seek to separate
politics from business to expand trade and business transactions with the DPRK. Park Young-ho, director
of policy studies at the Institute for National Unification, stated, "This will be the first administration to
take that stance in North-South relations. And business relations will in turn help overall relations." Yu
Suk-ryul, a professor at the Institute of Foreign Affairs and National Security, said "If North Korea
suggests plans for unification, the administration will respond, but overcoming the financial crisis will take
a front seat to issues of unification."
3. ROK Presidential Inauguration
The Associated Press (Pauline Jelinek, "NEW S. KOREA LEADER TO BE SWORN IN," Seoul, 02/24/98)
reported that Kim Dae-jung will be inaugurated as President of the ROK on Wednesday, marking the first
transfer of power to an opposition figure in modern Korean history. Professor Paik Seung-ki of Kyongwon
University compared Kim's situation with that of Franklin Roosevelt. Paik stated, "In this crisis situation ...
all blame will go to his predecessor government."
The Washington Times carried an analytical article (Willis Witter, "KIM PROMISES TO BRING NEW
ERA TO SOUTH KOREA," Tokyo, 02/24/98) which said that the success of Kim Dae-jung's
administration may depend on his ability to apply his message of reconciliation and magnanimity. Cho
Chang-hyun, a professor at Hanyang University , stated, "Kim Dae-jung will have to reach out to his
opponents. He always backed the underdog in the past, so I believe he can pull it off." However, Lee
Doo-won, a professor at Yonsei University, warned that Kim's "honeymoon" period may be short, and will
require constant effort to persuade organized labor to be more flexible.
4. ROK Layoff Bill
The New York Times (Stephanie Strom, "LABOR CUTBACKS POSE PROBLEM FOR SOUTH
KOREAN ECONOMIC RECOVERY," Seoul, 02/24/98) reported that large-scale layoffs are unlikely in
the ROK, given the country's tradition of lifetime employment. Richard Samuelson, head of research at
SBC Warburg Dillon Read in Seoul, stated, "What you'll see will be grudging, gradualist adjustments,
along the lines of 2 percent here, 5 percent there -- which may be followed six months later by another 2 or
5 percent." Under the new labor law, mergers and acquisitions will be the easiest way to eliminate large
numbers of workers. Yoon Young-mo, international secretary of the Korean Confederation of Trade
Unions, argued, "That's why this law was introduced in the first place. We believe the mergers and
acquisitions by foreigners the law is encouraging will lead to mass dismissals." However, Lee Yong-hwan,
executive director of the business organization Federation of Korean Industries, stated, "I don't expect labor
to attempt to disrupt the economy because that would be the opposite of what everyone is working to
accomplish."
5. ROK-Taiwan Relations
The AP-Dow Jones News Service ("TAIWAN PARTY LEADER TO ATTEND INAUGURATION OF S.
KOREA PRES," Taipei, 02/24/98) reported that Taiwan's ruling Nationalist Party said that John Chang, the
party's secretary-general, left Taiwan on Tuesday to attend the inauguration of ROK President-elect Kim
Dae-jung. According to a newspaper report, Chang, a former vice premier, met Kim during a visit to Seoul
earlier this month, although both men denied that such a meeting took place. Two top aides to Kim also
visited Taiwan last week for meetings with Taiwanese President Lee Teng-hui and other leaders. The aides
said that ROK-Taiwan ties will improve under Kim's government.
6. PRC-Taiwan Relations
Reuters (Jeffrey Parker, "CHINA SIGNALS ACCEPTANCE OF TAIWAN TALKS TERMS," Taipei,
02/24/98) and the Associated Press ("CHINA AGREES TO RESUME TAIWAN TALKS," Taipei
02/24/98) reported that Taiwan's state-sanctioned Straits Exchange Foundation (SEF) said on Tuesday that
it received a letter from the PRC's Association for Relations Across the Taiwan Straits (ARATS),
welcoming the proposal that SEF's political envoy, Koo Chen-fu, visit the PRC for talks. The PRC's
official Xinhua News Agency said that the message was an explicit response to Taiwan's recent proposals
that Koo visit Beijing to restart the talks. Xinhua quoted the letter as saying, "The Association for
Relations across the Taiwan Strait is willing to join the Straits Exchange Foundation in discussing
procedural matters of political negotiations and will thereafter arrange reopening talks on both economic
and routine issues." Taiwan Premier Vincent Siew, Koo, and Chang King-yuh of the cabinet's Mainland
Affairs Council, welcomed the PRC's "positive overture." However, Koo added, "I can't reply right away.
We will announce our plans when we are ready." He also said that Taiwan did not rule out sending new
chief negotiator Shi Hwei-yow to the PRC first. Meanwhile, on Monday the PRC, responding to reports
that Taiwanese Vice-President Lien Chan plans to visit a number of countries, including Jordan, Bahrain,
and Malaysia, warned that the hosts should treat the visit as unofficial.
1. DPRK-ROK Relations
Yang Hyung-sub, chairman of the DPRK Supreme People's Assembly, on February 22 urged the ROK to
accept the DPRK's recent proposals for united political and civil organizations of the two Koreas. Yang, in
a statement released through the DPRK's Korea Central News Agency (KCNA), said that a letter recently
passed on to the ROK included fundamental principles for improved inter-Korean relations and future
unification. "We expect the political and civil organizations of the ROK to actively comply with our
patriotic appeal," said Yang. (Kyunghyang Shinmun, "DPRK URGES UNITED INTER-KOREAN
ORGANIZATIONS," 02/24/98)
Richard Allen, former national security advisor during the Reagan administration, said during an interview
on February 22 that the ROK government should initiate the momentum for an inter-Korean peace process
and reunification. "Lots of Americans believe that the US should play a key role in reunification issues of
the two Koreas. To me, however, it is not the case," Allen said. He added, "The path to peace must not
come from Pyongyang-Washington dialogues. It is a matter between South and North and the officials in
Seoul must initiate deals and dialogues to the peace process." Allen now writes and lectures on US-Asian
policy and serves as chairman of the Heritage Foundation's Asian Studies Center Advisory Council.
"China will not help much. Japan does not even want the two Koreas to be united again. The Korean
government should deal with the matter. It is now time to prepare for the day after reunification," Allen
explained. (Korea Times, "SEOUL SHOULD TAKE INITIATIVE IN PEACE PROCESS WITH
P'YANG," 02/24/98)
2. US-ROK Military Burden Sharing
The ROK and US officials have narrowed their differences over the exchange rate to be applied to the
ROK's share of the costs for maintaining the US Forces in Korea (USFK), sources said on February 24.
Accordingly, for the US$399 million to be shouldered by the ROK government, a fixed exchange rate of
approximately 900 won to the dollar will be applied, in consideration of the ROK's economic woes. In
addition, 70 percent of the total cash payments due to the US will be settled in won by the ROK. The US is
also positively considering a delay in the ROK's due payments, amounting to US$1.1 billion, for arms
importation. (Kyunghyang Shinmun, "FIXED EXCHANGE RATE TO APPLY FOR KOREA'S USFK
BURDEN SHARING," 02/24/98)
3. ROK Military Reshuffle
ROK President-elect Kim Dae-jung is expected to reshuffle the military leadership following his
inauguration on February 25. One of Kim's close aides said, "The assigned tenure for the Army chief of
staff ends by October. However, since the president-elect is going to appoint a new defense minister, the
chiefs of military units should also be reshuffled for effective operations in the future." He added,
"Immediately after he takes office Wednesday, Kim is going to assign new officers for the nation's defense
heads." The aide also revealed Kim's plan to reshape both the intelligence and logistics organizations of
the defense ministry. (Korea Times, Kim Hyoung-min, "MILITARY RESHUFFLE EXPECTED
FOLLOWING INAUGURATION," 02/24/98)
1. Call for DPRK-ROK Dialogue
The DPRK's Official Korean Central News Agency ("DIALOGUE AND NEGOTIATIONS WITH
POLITICAL PARTIES AND ORGANISATIONS IN SOUTH KOREA CALLED FOR," Pyongyang,
02/18/98) released the following statement:
"We solemnly declare that we are ready for dialogue and negotiations with any South Korean people
including political parties and organizations who truly want to find together a way out of the nation on the
principle of national independence and great unity of the nation. This was stressed in a letter addressed to
the political parties and organizations in South Korea which was adopted at the joint meeting of the
political parties and organizations of the DPRK held in Pyongyang on February 18." [Ed. note: See
ROK-DPRK Talks in the US Section of the February 19 Daily Report.] "South Korea should make a
resolute decision to reject domination by outsiders and dependence upon them and shape the destiny of the
nation independently and change the wrong anti-North confrontation policy into a pro-north reconciliatory
policy, the letter said, and stressed: The north and the south should positively promote co-existence, co-
prosperity and common interests and express their readiness to collaborate and unite with each other. We
clarify once again that we have left doors open for wide-range dialogue."
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