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Northeast Asia Peace and Security Network DAILY REPORT For Friday, March 6, 1998, from Berkeley, California, USA |
1. Rumor of DPRK Coup
Dow Jones Newswires ("WHITE HOUSE: NO INFORMATION ON UNREST IN NORTH KOREA,"
Washington, 03/06/98) reported that the White House said it has no information to substantiate rumors
there has been political unrest in the DPRK.
[Ed. note: See item in ROK Section below. KBS1 Radio Broadcast reported at 1100 GMT on March 6
that a ranking ROK government official stated that there was "no sign of a coup," and "good chances that a
coup may be exaggerated." He added that it is true that there has been a delay in Japanese tourist visits to
the DPRK that were planned for around now. Also, according to informed sources in Washington DC,
there are no signs that would confirm or deny this rumor, although it is being watched carefully as such
rumors are always, given the significance of the status of the DPRK for US security forces. If such a coup
had taken place, one would expect there to be indicators related to troop movements, etc., that would
indicate such an event might be underway; there are no indicators so far that the US has picked up on any
such activities. NAPSNet Editor]
2. Light-Water Reactor Project
The Associated Press ("NKOREA DENOUNCES US OVER NUKE DEAL," Seoul, 03/06/98) reported
that the DPRK Foreign Ministry, in a statement carried by the official Korean Central News Agency,
accused the US on Friday of not honoring terms of the 1994 nuclear agreement. It said that although the
DPRK has frozen its nuclear plant, the US was not easing economic sanctions or making enough progress
in the construction of the reactors. The broadcast said that some quarters were demanding that the
government revive the old nuclear program. It added, "Nobody can predict what will happen unless the
U.S. seeks new practical measures and takes decisive action to implement its obligations." It questioned
whether the schedule to complete the first reactor by 2003 can be met as the ROK, Japan, and the US were
still haggling over burden-sharing.
3. Aid to DPRK
The Associated Press (Donna Abu-Nasr, "CONCERN OVER U.S. AID TO KOREAS," Washington,
03/06/98) reported that Republican representatives on Thursday raised concerns over food aid to the DPRK
at a hearing of the Committee on International Relations called to review the government's proposed
US$7.3 billion budget for the US Agency for International Development. Representative Henry Hyde, R-
Il., asked why the US "caved in" to DPRK demands that US monitors go there for only a short period of
time. He stated, "Of course we want to be of help. But I don't think it's asking too much ... to monitor the
spending of that (aid)." Agency head Brian Atwood responded that while the government of the DPRK is
a "despicable government and they don't like us and we don't like them, ... we are responding to a
humanitarian need." He added that three Korean-speaking US monitors will arrive in DPRK as the food
deliveries get there next month and will stay for two weeks, but long-term monitoring of the aid program
will be done by non-US citizens.
4. ROK Weapons Purchases
Reuters ("U.S. SAYS SOUTH KOREA WANTS SHIP MISSILE SYSTEM," Washington, 03/05/98)
reported that the US defense department said on Thursday that the ROK is planning to buy 12 sophisticated
launch and guidance systems for Standard anti-ship missiles at a cost of US$214 million. The US-made
weapons systems would be used on missile launcher systems that would potentially be installed on
warships made in the ROK. The department said that the sale would contribute to US security in the
Pacific by helping improve the security of an ally.
5. ROK Security Agency
The Associated Press (Sang-Hun Choe, "DOCUMENTS EXPOSE KOREAN SPY PLAN," Seoul,
03/05/98) reported that the ROK newspaper Hankyoreh published documents Friday supporting President
Kim Dae-jung's contention that the Agency for National Security Planning conspired to harm his
presidential bid by depicting him as a communist. The documents showed that former agency head Kwon
Young-hae and other senior intelligence officials tried to influence the campaign. In December, the agency
revealed what it claimed was a letter to Kim from an ROK religious leader who defected to the DPRK in
August, which said that DPRK leaders wanted Kim to be elected as ROK president. Hankyoreh's
documents showed that senior intelligence officials met regularly to use the letter to the detriment of Kim's
campaign. Presidential spokesman Park Ji-won stated, "What was revealed is only part of the whole
scheme." He indicated that prosecutors may question members of the Grand National Party for possible
involvement.
6. Taiwan-PRC Relations
The Washington Post (Steven Mufson, "TAIWAN TO SEND ENVOYS TO CHINA," Beijing, 03/06/98,
A31) reported that Taiwan said Friday that Lee Ching-ping, deputy secretary-general of Taiwan's semi-
official Straits Exchange Foundation, said that his group will send a delegation to the mainland "in the near
future" to restart technical-level talks on easing tensions between the two rivals and establishing closer
links in shipping, communications, and air travel. Lee said that the delegation will try to prepare the way
for a visit by his group's chairman, Koo Chen-fu, and a return visit by his PRC counterpart.
7. Taiwan Arms Buildup
The AP-Dow Jones News Service ("TAIWAN PLANS TO BUILD FOUR WARSHIPS - NEWSPAPER,"
Taipei, 03/06/98) reported that Taiwan's China Times on Friday quoted a report by Navy Commander in
Chief Hu Tsai-kuei as saying that the navy plans to build four 6,000-8,000 ton warships in the next ten
years as part of its fleet modernization. The Shentun class ships would be equipped with 16 to 32 missile
platforms and serve partly in an air defense capacity. It added that the ships would also be a response to
recent purchases of modern Russian vessels by the PRC. However, the paper said that no budget has yet
been set aside for the ships.
1. Rumor of DPRK Coup
The Joongang Ilbo ("RUMORS ON DPRK COUP D'ETAT ALARM GOVERNMENT," Seoul, 03/07/98)
reported that the ROK government is under alert to discover the truth behind rumors of a coup d'etat in the
DPRK, which have spread in the diplomatic community of the PRC and Japan. The government is
evaluating intelligence reports regarding the possible death of DPRK leader Kim Jong-il and a coup d'etat,
a government official said on March 6. He added that the DPRK military is currently under winter
mobilization-drill and DPRK officials are refusing entry of foreigners into the country, so the ROK is
watching closely. Kang In-duk, the new ROK Unification Minister, summoned an emergency meeting to
coordinate additional intelligence acquisition and countermeasures. Rumors were also reported that a
small-scale coup d'etat had been attempted by field-officers in February but was suppressed.
2. US Military in ROK
US Department of Defense Spokesman Kenneth Bacon announced during a press briefing that the US has
no plans to withdraw its armed forces from the Korean peninsula despite the DPRK's repeated demands. In
addition, former Defense Secretary William Cohen had displayed the US intentions to remain in the
Korean peninsula as a stabilizing force even after reconciliation of the two Koreas during his meeting with
ROK President Kim Dae-jung, said Bacon. (Yonhap News, "US NOT TO WITHDRAW FROM
KOREAN PENINSULA," Washington, 03/06/98)
3. UNC-DPRK Talks
A meeting between high-level military officials of the DPRK and the UN Command (UNC) will be likely
to take place later this month, an ROK government official said on March 5. The DPRK is reported to
have replied positively to the UNC's recent request for the resumption of high-level military talks. DPRK
and US, as well as ROK, UK, and other military generals, will attend the meeting. (Kyung-hyang
Shinmun, "UNC AND DPRK TO RESUME HIGH-LEVEL TALKS," 03/06/98)
4. ROK Policy Toward DPRK
National Unification Minister Kang In-duk said Thursday that the ROK will lift a ban on DPRK radio and
television broadcasts on a phased basis as part of its efforts to improve understanding between the two
Koreas. (Korea Times, Son Key-young, "SEOUL TO LIFT BAN ON NK BROADCASTS," 03/06/98)
5. ROK-DPRK Trade Relations
The ROK government is pushing to establish a permanent trade mission in the DPRK's Rajin-Sonbong free
economic trade zone, a government official said on March 5. The trade mission would represent the ROK's
Korea Trade-Investment Promotion Agency (KOTRA) and would be used as meeting place for dispersed
families and provide consular services for tourists. (Joong-ang Ilbo, "GOVERNMENT PUSHES FOR
PERMANENT TRADE MISSION IN NAJIN-SONBONG," 03/06/98)
6. DPRK Food Aid
A DPRK representative at the UN announced on March 5 that a delegation headed by Kim Soo-man,
former vice ambassador to the UN, will be visiting the US to meet non-governmental organizations such as
World Vision and Interaction. The intended meetings, scheduled to be held at the end of March between
the DPRK and US aid organizations, will mark the first ever of its kind. (Yonhap News, "DPRK
DELEGATION VISITS US REGARDING AID ISSUES," New York, 03/06/98)
1. Japan-ROK Relations
The Sankei Shimbun ("FOREIGN MINISTER TO VISIT ROK, HOPING TO RESUME TALKS ON
NEW FISHERY AGREEMENT," 03/06/98) reported that Japanese Foreign Minister Keizo Obuchi and
ROK Foreign Affairs and Trade Minister Park Chung-su agreed by phone on March 5 to meet this month.
Obuchi said to Park, "We do have many concerns between us, but I wish to have a close dialogue with you
on how to build robust and broad partnership in the 21 century." Park said in response, "I would also like
to meet you regardless of time or format. President Kim Dae-jung also emphasizes friendship between
Japan and the ROK. We want to have a close dialogue and strive to solve the problems." According to the
report, the Japanese government wants to find a way for resumption of the talks on a new Japan-ROK
fishery agreement, which have been deadlocked.
2. Japanese Defense Policy
The Yomiuri Shimbun ("JAPAN TO IMPLEMENT PRELIMINARY SECURITY CONSULTATION,"
03/06/98) reported that, regarding the New Guidelines for Japan-US Defense Cooperation, the Japanese
government decided on March 5 to exclude the provision of Japanese logistical support for US planes
departing for the purpose of combat action in areas surrounding Japan. Whether or not the purpose of the
departures of the US planes is direct combat action will be decided at a Japan-US preliminary consultation,
which, according to the report, has not been held. The report added that prior to the decision, the Cabinet's
legislation office demanded that logistical support for US direct combat action be excluded from Japan's
overall logistical support for the US forces, because such support in the times of crisis on the Korean
Peninsula, for example, may fall within "collective defense," which the Japanese constitution forbids.
3. Japanese-Russian Relations
The Yomiuri Shimbun ("JAPAN-RUSSIA JOINT ECONOMIC ACTIVITIES IN NORTHERN
TERRITORIES TO START," 03/03/98) reported that the Japanese government decided on March 2 to
limit its joint economic activities in the Northern Territories [Kuril Islands] with Russia to the construction
of bay and port infrastructures and accommodations, including Japanese-Russian exchange without visas,
by revision or expanded interpretation of the related provisions. According to the report, the government
aims to give a boost to the Japan-Russia peace treaty talks, which have been facilitated since the Japan-
Russia summit meeting in November, 1997.
1. DPRK Energy Imports
David Von Hippel, a Research Associate at the Nautilus Institute, estimates that the size of DPRK oil
imports recently reported by the PRC's Xinhua News Agency seem much too small. [Ed. note: See
DPRK Energy in the ROK Section of the March 5 and DPRK-PRC Trade in the US Section of the
March 3 Daily Reports.] Using his 1996 estimates for gasoline and diesel imports only, and extrapolating
for an average 42-day span, Dr. Von Hippel calculates DPRK gasoline imports of about 22,000 tons and
diesel imports of about 14,000 tons. [Xinhua reported that the DPRK imported 134.8 metric tons of
gasoline and 29.5 tons of diesel oil from the PRC between January 1 and February 11, accounting for 74
percent of DPRK oil imports in that period.] Dr. Von Hippel pointed out that, while not all of the DPRK's
imports from the PRC are recorded on official ledgers, even the official imports from the PRC during the
first 3 quarters of 1996 averaged about 6,600 tons per 42 days. He stated, "the amounts that they are
talking about are a drop in the bucket compared to what we have estimated as the DPRK's consumption,
even assuming a very reduced level of economic activity." [Ed. note: The statistical basis for Dr. Von
Hippel's comments can be found in the Annex of his recent Policy Forum Online, DPRK Energy Sector:
Current Status and Scenarios for 2000 and 2005.]
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