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Northeast Asia Peace and Security Network DAILY REPORT For Wednesday, March 18, 1998, from Berkeley, California, USA |
1. ROK-DPRK Talks
Reuters (Elif Kaban, "NORTH KOREA INVITES SOUTH TO DIRECT TALKS,"
Geneva 03/18/98) reported that Li Gun, deputy head of the DPRK
delegation to the Geneva peace talks and DPRK ambassador to the
UN, said Wednesday that the DPRK was ready to resume direct talks
with the ROK. Li stated, "We are ready for direct inter-Korean
dialogue. But we want it to take place on the Korean peninsula
and not abroad." He added, "We have proposed the dialogue and
now we are waiting for the South Korean response." However, Li
said that it was unlikely any direct talks could take place
within the next few month, adding "Timing would be very
sensitive." He continued, "Once [the ROK] agree[s] to meet, then
we would discuss the agenda. When, how, where exactly I don't
know." Asked if ROK-DPRK talks might obviate the need for the
Geneva process, Li said, "North-South Korean dialogue has its own
track and it will move on its own track." He said that while the
DPRK did not reject an ROK offer to set up two inter-Korean sub-
committees to look into creating a peace mechanism and
confidence-building measures, "before we form the sub-committees,
we need to finalize the agenda." ROK spokesman Oh Il-son said
that the ROK was waiting for more details. Oh stated, "We do not
know the exact context of North Korea's willingness. We have to
clarify it. There have been various conditions in the past."
Meanwhile, ROK Foreign Minister Park Chung-soo was quoted as
telling President Kim Dae-jung, "North Korea's side has told our
representative that North Korea was willing to hold North-South
talks in the near future and asked if we were going to continue
with four-party talks after North-South talks have been
established."
The Associated Press (Alexander G. Higgins "S.KOREA SEEKS EXACT
TERMS FOR TALKS," Geneva 03/18/98) reported that an anonymous ROK
official said that the DPRK has to elaborate on its proposal for
inter-Korean dialogue before the ROK can respond. He stated,
"Basically the North Koreans indicated their willingness to have
talks, but exactly what that means, exactly when, how, that sort
of thing" remains to be determined. In Seoul, ROK President Kim
Dae-jung welcomed the DPRK's move, stating that "the door to
inter-Korea dialogue is always open."
2. Four-Party Peace Talks
The AP-Dow Jones News Service ("SOUTH, N. KOREA MOVING TOWARD
AGREEMENT ON KEY PROCEDURE," Geneva, 03/18/98) reported that PRC
assistant foreign minister Chen Jian said Wednesday that the DPRK
and the ROK moved toward agreeing on crucial procedures for the
four-party peace talks. He stated, "There's more than a 50
percent chance of reaching an agreement" to form working groups
to deal with different issues. He added, "Everybody feels the
same, that if we want to have substantive discussion,
subcommittees or smaller groups, whatever you call it, will have
to be formed."
Reuters ("US REPORTS PROGRESS IN KOREA PEACE TALKS," Geneva,
03/18/98) reported that US Assistant Secretary of State Stanley
Roth, chief US negotiator at the four-party peace talks in
Geneva, said Wednesday that the talks have "made some progress."
He gave no further details. PRC assistant foreign minister Chen
Jian said that heads of delegations would go on a "Swiss
excursion" on Thursday and continue meeting while their officials
would stay in Geneva for consultations. He stated, "We worked
all day and I have used all my efforts to find a middle ground.
No one is intentionally obstructing the talks."
United Press International ("N. KOREA DEMANDS U.S. WITHDRAWAL,"
Geneva, 03/17/98) and the Associated Press (Geir Moulson, "LITTLE
PROGRESS IN KOREA PEACE," Geneva, 03/17/98) reported that, during
the second day of the four-party peace talks on Tuesday, the DPRK
repeated its demands for a withdrawal of US troops from the
Korean peninsula and called on the Clinton administration to
enter into a bilateral peace accord with the DPRK. A US State
Department official said, "there is no change in American policy,
and there is not going to be one" on US troops. He added that
the US approach remains to focus on the less contentious issues
now and leave the politically sensitive ones until the end of the
process. PRC Assistant Foreign Minister Chen Jian said that
during Tuesday's session everyone went over their negotiating
positions, "so now we know our limits."
3. ROK Policy toward DPRK
United Press International (Jason Neely, "S.KOREA EASES RULES ON
AID TO NORTH," Seoul, 03/18/98) and Reuters ("SEOUL TO ALLOW
CIVIC GROUPS TO HELP NORTH DIRECTLY," 03/17/98) reported that ROK
Unification Ministry spokesman Kim Chang-yon said Wednesday that
the government will allow private groups to provide direct aid to
the DPRK. Kim stated, "Effective from today, groups can submit
proposals and the ministry will permit activities within these
boundaries." He added that the ministry is still working on the
legal implications of the changes. The Unification Ministry said
that ROK citizens will be allowed to canvass and hold fund-
raising events for the DPRK and participate in inter-Korean
projects such as food-processing factories or cooperative farms.
The ministry also pledged to promote private-sector aid to the
DPRK to help achieve "substantial intra-Korean cooperation and
exchanges."
The AP-Dow Jones News Service ("S. KOREAN PRESIDENT: NOT READY
FOR REUNIFICATION - REVIEW," Hong Kong, 03/18/98) reported that
ROK President Kim Dae-jung, in an interview with the Far Eastern
Economic Review, said that the ROK and the DPRK are "not at the
stage to attempt unification." He stated, "Rather than pursuing
such an impractical and unlikely proposition as unification, I
first want to realize more pragmatic steps like seeking
cooperation and exchanges." Kim also said that ROK Unification
Minister Kang In-dok's more hawkish image on reunification could
"be helpful in persuading conservative South Koreans" to accept a
policy of engagement toward the DPRK.
4. DPRK Executions
United Press International ("JAPAN PAPER: N.KOREA EXECUTED 3
'SPIES'," Tokyo, 03/18/98) reported that the Japanese daily
newspaper Sankei Shinbun said that three people were executed in
Pyongyang last October for allegedly spying for the ROK.
According to the report, the three executed were Ham Un-gon, a
vice director at the Ministry of Public Security's Political
Department, So Kwan-hi, a secretary of the DPRK Workers Party of
Korea in charge of agriculture, and Ri Pyong-so, president of a
trading firm. The paper said that Ri and Ham were charged with
state treason for allegedly forging contacts with the ROK's
Agency for National Security Planning during a purge conducted in
the DPRK. The main charges against So were his friendly
relations with defector Hwang Jang-yop, along with allegations
that he misguided the state's agricultural policy by producing
padded production reports. He was also said to have mismanaged
the food distribution system to the point of collapse. The
report said that the execution was attended by senior party
leaders at an undisclosed location inside Pyongyang after Kim
Jong-il formally took power on October 8.
4. PRC Missile Purchases
The Washington Times (Bill Gertz, "U.S. MAY HELP CHINA ON
MISSILES," 03/18/98) reported that the Clinton administration
will offer the PRC access to missile technology now barred under
human rights sanctions if the PRC agrees again to end exports of
missiles to Iran, Pakistan, and other developing states. Gary
Samore, a White House National Security Council proliferation
official, in a March 12 letter sent to senior officials at the
State, Commerce, and Defense departments, the Joint Chiefs of
Staff, the Office of the US Trade Representative, and NASA,
stated, "In essence, we would offer the expanded commercial and
scientific space cooperation with China (in limited areas) if
China meets our conditions for joining the MTCR [Missile
Technology Control Regime] and controlling its missile-related
exports to Iran, Pakistan, et cetera." The article said that the
proposed deal will be presented in the PRC on March 25 or 26 by
Robert Einhorn, deputy assistant secretary of state for
nonproliferation. John Holum, director of the Arms Control and
Disarmament Agency, also will discuss the proposal during his
visit to the PRC next week. However, a senior administration
official, stated, "This is something that is under consideration.
It is not a done deal." One unnamed US government official
opposed to the deal stated, "We would be rewarding China for
dangerous proliferation activities." An anonymous former
administration official who specializes in missile technology
added, "To date, Chinese statements about abiding by the MTCR
contain peculiar formulations that do not correspond to the
regime's language and appear to let the Chinese think they can
transfer components and technology even though they've agreed not
to export complete missiles."
5. US Policy toward PRC
The Los Angeles Times carried an analytical article (Jim Mann,
"Clinton's Asia Policy Puts China First," Washington, 03/18/98)
which said that US President Bill Clinton has been forging a US
policy towards Asia that gives greater weight to the PRC and less
to Japan. The article stated, "The Clinton administration seems
to have concluded that China, more than Japan, is the key to
preserving stability in East Asia--both political and economic."
The author warned of dangers inherent in the administration's
approach, saying, "Whenever an administration becomes enamored of
the strategic importance of China, the result is to give Beijing
vastly greater leverage in dealing with the United States.
Moreover, there are long-term risks involved in minimizing
Japan's significance to the United States." He concluded,
"Clinton's decision to speed up his visit to Beijing is not just
an itinerary, but a strategy, and a questionable one at that."
6. Russian-Japanese Relations
The Associated Press ("RUSSIA TO RETURN BODIES OF POWS," Moscow,
03/17/98) reported that Russia's ITAR-Tass news agency said
Tuesday that the remains of 86 Japanese officers who died in
Soviet prison camps after World War II will be returned to Japan
this summer. A Japanese delegation spent three days visiting
Kazan and other cities in the Tatarstan region, where the prison
camps were located, and examined the cemeteries where the
officers were buried. Japanese specialists will travel to Russia
to exhume the corpses as soon as winter snows melt. ITAR-Tass
also said that a joint Russian-Japanese subcommission is set to
meet in Tokyo on March 26 to work out the remaining differences
blocking a peace treaty. Russian President Boris Yeltsin is
scheduled to travel to Japan on April 11 for a meeting with
Japanese Prime Minister Ryutaro Hashimoto.
7. Russian Nuclear Safety
The Washington Post carried an analytical article (David Hoffman,
"COLD-WAR DOCTRINES REFUSE TO DIE," Moscow, 03/15/98, A01) which
said that Russia and the US still rely on a doctrine that calls
for quick decisions about a possible nuclear attack. In a recent
example, Russian detection of a US-Norway research rocket launch
on January 25, 1995, triggered a heightened level of alert
throughout the Russian strategic forces, and marked the first
time a Russian leader had to use his nuclear briefcase in a real
alert. The article said that Russia's system of early warning of
a possible attack, and command and control of nuclear forces, are
suffering from obsolete equipment and gaps in the network caused
by the breakup of the Soviet Union. An unnamed Russian expert on
the command system was quoted as saying, "Today it's not
dangerous but tomorrow it might be. It is going down." Retired
general Vladimir Belous wrote recently, "a fateful accident could
plunge the world into the chaos of a thermonuclear catastrophe,
contrary to political leaders' wishes." The article said that
Russia inherited from the Soviet Union both the deterrence
concept known as Mutual Assured Destruction, and the "launch-on-
attack," strategy to preserve the ability to launch a retaliatory
strike even after the enemy's warheads have hit. While some
Russian policymakers have called for moving away from the launch-
on-warning doctrine, Anatoly Diakov, director of the Center for
Arms Control, Energy, and Environmental Studies in Moscow stated,
"I think there will be some kind of transition period, 10 to 15
years. Russia will save the opportunity to return to launch-on-
warning, just in case... But the main priority will be a
transition from launch-on-warning to a retaliatory" posture.
1. ROK Policy toward DPRK
President Kim Dae-jung on March 17 declared that he will not seek
any "excessive" steps toward Korean unification and instead will
first strive to achieve a peaceful coexistence with the DPRK.
Kim made the remarks in his instructions to the Ministry of
National Unification. Kim vowed to implement DPRK policies in a
consistent manner on the basis of the 1991 basic agreement on
inter-Korean reconciliation, non-aggression, and exchanges and
cooperation. Kim also made it clear that the ROK government will
not resort to "private or secret" channels with the DPRK. (Korea
Times, Son Key-young, "SEOUL TO FOCUS ON PEACEFUL COEXISTENCE
BEFORE UNIFICATION: PRES. KIM," 03/18/98)
2. Light-Water Reactor Project
The Asahi Shimbun reported on March 18 that the Japanese
government will inform the Korea Peninsula Energy Development
Organization (KEDO) that it will not be able to afford its share
of the cost for building two light-water reactors in the DPRK.
Accordingly, the Japanese government will inform KEDO during the
next general meeting in New York, slated for March 19-20, that
the Japanese Diet is not likely to approve the cost-sharing
budget. The Asahi Shimbun added that such information would
spark diplomatic friction between Japan and the ROK. (Yonhap
News, Moon Hyung-sik, "JAPAN TO BEAR LESS BURDEN FOR LWR
PROJECT," Tokyo, 03/18/98)
3. DPRK Diplomacy
The DPRK will replace its ambassador to Russia Son Sung-pil by
dispatching Vice Foreign Minister Park Eui-june, reported
diplomatic sources in Moscow on March 17. (Kyunghyang Shinmun,
"DPRK AMBASSADOR TO RUSSIA TO BE REPLACED," 03/18/98)
1. Four-Party Peace Talks
Jie Fang Daily ("PEACE MECHANISM AGREED TO BE ESTABLISHED ON
KOREAN PENINSULA," Geneva, 03/18/98, A3) quoted PRC assistant
foreign minister Chen Jian as saying that the four-party talks on
Korean issue have entered into a stage of discussing substantial
issues instead of procedural matters. As chair of the talks,
Chen Jian said that all the four parties have agreed in principle
to the establishment of a peace mechanism on the Korean Peninsula
to replace the armistice mechanism. Under that agenda all
concerns can be raised and discussed, Chen said.
2. US Troops in ROK
People's Daily ("DPRK REQUIRES THE US TO WITHDRAW TROOPS FROM
ROK," Pyongyang, 03/18/98, A6) reported that an article in March
17's Rodong Shinmun emphasized that the withdrawal of US troops
from the ROK will benefit not only the peaceful reunification of
Korean Peninsula, but also the peace and stability in Asia and
the world. Another commentary, published by the DPRK official
newspaper Democratic Korea on March 17, pointed out that it is
dangerous to transform the organization system of a US unit in
the ROK into a field army. It said this measure was provocative
and posed a threat towards the DPRK. The commentary asked the US
to consider the result which would be brought about by the
measure.
3. ROK-DPRK Trade Relations
Jie Fang Daily ("TRADE BETWEEN NORTH AND SOUTH KOREA INCREASES,"
03/18/98, A3) reported that the trade between the DPRK and the
ROK is increasing every year. From last January to November,
trade between the two Koreas reached US$296 million, up 26
percent compared to the same period of 1996. The ROK's exports
to the DPRK totaled US$112.8 million, an increase of 67 percent,
and DPRK exports to ROK were US$183.2 million, up by 9.4 percent.
4. ROK Food Aid for DPRK
People's Daily ("ROK TO PROVIDE GRAIN AID TO DPRK," Seoul,
03/10/98, A7) reported that the ROK government said on March 9
that it planned to provide aid of 50,000 tons of grain to the
DPRK, through the UN World Food Program. China Daily ("50,000
TONS OF GRAIN TO AID HUNGRY IN KOREA," Seoul, 03/18/98, A11) said
that Lee Jong-riol, director-general of humanitarian affairs of
the ROK, said that the delivery would likely take place between
the end of April and early May. Lee also said that the
government hoped to provide food aid directly to the impoverished
DPRK in the future after the two sides begin talking directly.
People's Daily ("RED CROSS BETWEEN TWO KOREAS TO HOLD MEETINGS,"
Seoul, 03/16/98, A6) reported that the ROK Red Cross informed its
DPRK counterpart on March 13 that the ROK agreed to accept the
DPRK's offer to hold a meeting in Beijing. The ROK will send a
delegation composed of 3 persons to take part in the meeting on
March 25. The third shipment of food aid from the ROK is a
subject of the meeting.
5. ROK Policy toward DPRK
China Daily ("ROK TO KEEP CONTROVERSIAL LAW LIMITING CONTACTS,"
Seoul, 03/12/98, A11) reported that ROK's new government will not
abolish a controversial law prohibiting unauthorized contacts
with the DPRK. ROK President Kim Dae-jung made the announcement
on March 11. Under the law, violators are punished with heavy
jail sentences. However, Kim, calling himself a victim of abuse
of the law, pledged that his government will not allow the
National Security Law to be used, as under past dictatorships, as
a means to suppress internal dissent in the ROK. Before becoming
president, Kim said he would consider modifying the law, but not
abolishing it. The international human rights organization
Amnesty International and influential members of the US Congress
have urged that the terms of the law be rewritten to prevent
abuse.
6. Opening of DPRK Airspace
China Daily ("HISTORIC FLIGHT," Seoul, 03/04/98, A11) reported
that a Korean Air cargo jet on March 3 became the first
commercial ROK plane to cross DPRK-controlled airspace since the
1950-1953 Korean War. Korean Air officials confirmed the path of
the cargo flight, which left from New York and passed through
DPRK airspace before reaching Seoul.
7. Kim Dae-jung's Foreign Policy
Jie Fang Daily ("CHALLENGES AHEAD," C3, 03/07/98) said that ROK
President Kim Dae-jung will meet some difficulties with his
diplomatic agenda. The first problem is how to push forward the
negotiations with the DPRK. Kim has suggested holding a summit
with the DPRK, and the DPRK recently showed its willingness to
cooperate with the ROK. However, under the current political
situation in the ROK, Kim has to make some compromises with the
conservative opposition so that his policy can progress. Another
problem Kim faced is how to strengthen the ROK's relations with
the US and Japan. The newspaper said the fishery dispute between
the ROK and Japan may worsen in the future.
8. PRC-US Relations
The PRC welcomed US President William Clinton's decision to move
up his visit to the PRC, People's Daily ("CHINA WELCOMES
CLINTON'S TOUR DECISION," Beijing, 98/03/18, A1) reported. PRC
Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhu Bangzao said at a news briefing on
March 17 that PRC and US officials are preparing for President
Clinton's visit, scheduled for late June. The PRC believes that
President Clinton's state visit to the PRC will push Sino-US
relations onto a new stage.
China Daily ("US NOT TO SPONSOR ANTI-CHINA BILL AT UN,"
Washington, A1, 03/16/98) reported that the US government has
decided to give up its bid to sponsor a UN Resolution critical of
the PRC's human rights record in spite of mounting pressure from
Congress. PRC Vice-Premier and Foreign Minister Qian Qichen told
a press conference on March 12 in Beijing that the PRC was
prepared to ink the pact, which guarantees freedom of thought,
conscience, religion and expression. Both the White House and
the State Department of the US responded positively to the PRC
announcement.
Commenting on the US decision to not sponsor an anti-PRC draft
resolution at the UN Human Rights Commission meeting, PRC
spokesman Zhu Bangzao said on March 17 that this is wise and will
allow Sino-US ties to proceed healthily and in a stable manner.
China Daily ("CHINESE OFFICIALS GREET CLINTON'S TOUR DECISION,"
03/18/98, A1)
Jie Fang Daily ("SINO-US RELATIONSHIP HAS A GOOD MOMENTUM OF
DEVELOPMENT," 03/17/98, B4) published a commentary which said
that there are some noticeable positive indications in Sino-US
relations. It said that the summits between PRC and US
presidents provide guarantee and drive for the development of
bilateral relations. The bilateral relationship will keep
developing as long as the two sides respect each other and hold
consultations on the basis of equality.
9. PRC Policy on Taiwan
According to People's Daily ("QIAN QICHEN COMMENTS ON CHINA'S
POLICY," A1, 03/13/98), PRC Vice-Premier and Foreign Minister
Qian Qichen said at a press conference on March 12 in Beijing
that conditions are ripe for conducting political talks between
the two sides of the Taiwan Straits under the "one China"
principle. If a step-by-step approach is to be adopted, Qian
said, the first step can be to discuss the issue of ending the
state of hostility by the two sides. To make preparation for
that discussion, the two sides may have contacts first and hold
talks on such procedural matters as the name, form and method of
discussion. All these propositions are fair and reasonable, the
Vice-Premier said, because, according to the experience of
previous talks conducted by the Association for Relations Across
the Taiwan Straits and the Straits Exchange Foundation, the
obstacles hindering the technical talks between the two
organizations were always of a political nature. Before the
reunification of the motherland, Qian said, all that "one China"
could mean were that "both sides of the Taiwan Straits identify
themselves with the position that there is only one China in the
world and Taiwan is a part of China, and the sovereignty and
territorial integrity of China are not allowed to suffer a
split."
10. Asian Financial Crisis
Beijing Review ("CHINA FACES EXPORT CHALLENGES," March 9-15,
1998, P. 4) said that the sharp devaluation of currencies among
the PRC's neighbors will pose great challenges to the export
sector of the PRC. Zhou Xiaochuan, director of the State
Administration of Foreign Exchange of China, said that the
country's income from overseas labor service contracts will be
influenced somewhat since 70 percent of those contracts are
concentrated in Southeast Asia and the ROK. Furthermore, he
said, investment from Japan, Hong Kong, the ROK, Taiwan and
Southeast Asian countries, which accounts for two-thirds of the
PRC's total foreign capital, will probably drop in the future.
However, the senior official still emphasized that the PRC's
foreign trade will remain balanced and that the actual inflow of
foreign capital will not drop sharply this year.
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Yonsei University, Seoul, Republic of Korea
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