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Northeast Asia Peace and Security Network DAILY REPORT For Friday, May 22, 1998, from Berkeley, California, USA |
1. Nautilus Wind Power Project for DPRK
The San Francisco Chronicle (Lewis Dolinsky, "A HAT CAN WORK WONDERS IN NORTH KOREA,"
05/22/98, A14) reported that Peter Hayes, co-director of the Nautilus Institute in Berkeley, and three
engineers from the US spent last week in the DPRK, helping to construct a 100-foot wind tower in a 600-
household village in Onch'on County, a rural area where farmland was inundated by a 25-foot tidal wave
last year. Hayes said that a gift of blue commemorative baseball caps helped break the tension during the
visit. Everyone on the construction site, including the military police and farmers, wore the hats, which
had "Nautilus" and "Korean Anti-Nuke Peace Committee" written on them, along with the words "wind
power" in both English and Korean. Hayes said that the DPRK engineers adapted quickly to the
requirements of the project. After raising the tower, the team installed wind-measuring meters and
microelectronic readout equipment. The Nautilus group plans to return later this year to help install a
turbine, build six more towers, and extend wire to provide power to a kindergarten and a medical clinic,
and later to houses. The article pointed out that the Nautilus project may be the first in keeping with the
Nuclear Non-Proliferation Act passed by Congress in 1978, which authorized the export of renewable
energy technology to encourage nations to give up nuclear weapons programs. The W. Alton Jones
Foundation contributed US$250,000 for this phase of the project. [Ed note: Click here for the Nautilus press release on the windpower team's visit, including photos. ]
2. Fuel Oil Deliveries for DPRK
Reuters ("KEDO CONTRACTS LG-CALTEX FOR N.KOREA OIL SUPPLY," Seoul, 05/22/98) reported
that the ROK's LG-Caltex Oil Corp said in a statement on Friday that it had been awarded a bid from the
Korea Peninsula Energy Development Organization (KEDO) to supply 22,000 tons of heavy residual fuel
oil to the DPRK. The statement said that the fuel oil was loaded on a PRC-registered ship in the ROK port
of Yosu on Thursday and was scheduled to arrive in the DPRK's Nampo Port on Sunday.
3. DPRK Election
The Washington Post ("WORLD IN BRIEF: N. KOREA TO HOLD 1ST ELECTION IN 8 YEARS,"
Seoul, 05/22/98) reported that the DPRK's official news agency said that elections to the Supreme People's
Assembly would be held on July 26. This would be the first election in eight years. Analysts said that the
move could pave the way for Kim Jong-il to formally succeed his late father, Kim Il-sung, as state
president.
4. DPRK Defector
The Associated Press ("N. KOREAN DEFECTS THROUGH MINE FIELD," Seoul, 05/22/98) reported
that the ROK Defense Ministry said that Sohn Chul-min, a corporal in the DPRK army, walked across a
mine field Friday to defect to the ROK. ROK soldiers spotted Sohn when he reached within 300 yards of
their guard post, and guided him through the mine field.
5. ROK Financial Crisis
The Associated Press ("SOUTH KOREAN ECONOMY SHRINKS," Seoul, 05/21/98) reported that the
ROK's central Bank of Korea said Thursday that the ROK gross domestic product contracted 3.8 percent in
the first quarter of this year, the worst performance since late 1980. Cho Ki-june, a bank official, stated,
"The economy is expected to remain extremely weak this year, and the GDP may fall more sharply than
the government and the International Monetary Fund had forecast."
6. ROK-Japanese Cooperation on Nonproliferation
Dow Jones Newswires ("JAPAN, S. KOREA PLEDGE TO WORK AGAINST NUCLEAR TESTS -
KYODO," Tokyo, 05/22/98) reported that the Kyodo news agency said that Japanese Prime Minister
Ryutaro Hashimoto and ROK Foreign Affairs and Trade Minister Park Chung-soo agreed Friday to take
concerted steps to pressure India and Pakistan not to engage in a nuclear weapons race. Japanese Foreign
Ministry officials said that Hashimoto told Park that Japan and the ROK should cooperate in expressing
strong concerns over India and Pakistan's nuclear programs to dissuade the DPRK from developing nuclear
weapons. Park was quoted as agreeing to Hashimoto's proposal, saying that the ROK government is also
strongly concerned over nuclear programs in India and Pakistan. Hashimoto also told Park that Japan is
considering providing new loans to the ROK through the Export-Import Bank of Japan to help rebuild the
ROK's economy.
7. ROK-Japanese Fisheries Talks
The Associated Press ("JAPAN, S KOREA HOPE TO REACH COMPROMISE OVER FISHING ROW,"
Tokyo, 05/22/98) reported that the Japanese foreign ministry said that Japanese Prime Minister Ryutaro
Hashimoto and ROK foreign affairs and trade minister, Park Chung-soo vowed Friday to resolve the
countries' fishing dispute before ROK President Kim Dae-jung visits Tokyo in the fall.
8. US Bases in Japan
The Associated Press (Laura Myers, "OKINAWA SEEKS REMOVAL OF U.S. BASES," Washington,
05/22/98) reported that Okinawa Governor Masahide Ota and a delegation of Okinawan officials on
Thursday made a personal plea to the Clinton administration to remove US military forces from the
Japanese island. Ota said that the people and administrative government of Okinawa have rejected US and
Japanese government plans to trim the US military presence. He added, "Guam and Hawaii should be
considered as possible relocation sites" for the US bases on Okinawa. Ota met with officials at the State
Department and the Pentagon to present his petition requesting relocation of the US bases. Major Bryan
Salas, a Pentagon spokesman, stated, "Our door is always open to listen to the concerns of local
representatives of Japan, but our policies are unchanged. Our business is done with the government of
Japan."
9. US-Taiwan Relations
The Washington Times (Ben Barber, "TAIWAN FRETS ABOUT TALKS BETWEEN U.S. AND
BEIJING," 05/22/98) reported that Chien-jen Chen, director-general of the Taiwan Government
Information Office, said Thursday that Taiwan should not be a topic of discussion at an upcoming summit
between US President Bill Clinton and PRC President Jiang Zemin. Chen stated, "Our future and destiny
should not be the topic of discussion by third parties." He added, "The visit is a major concern." Chen said
that the Taiwanese government has been briefed on the visit by the Clinton administration, and was told
that the purpose of the visit is to improve relations between the US and the PRC and to try and engage the
PRC more in the international community and to maintain and stabilize peace in the region. Chen replied,
"We have no objections. We are all for it. But not at the expense of our interests." He said that Taiwan is
worried that the summit "might affect military sales," even though "we have been told this would not
happen." Chen added, "Not only India and Taiwan but all of Southeast Asia is concerned about the
buildup of the PRC navy." However, he argued that, were the PRC to attempt at an amphibious landing on
Taiwan, "Their loss would be astronomical." Chen maintained, "Each time [there is a US-PRC summit] it
affects our interests adversely."
Susan Shirk, deputy assistant secretary of state for East Asian and Pacific affairs ("DAS SUSAN SHIRK
ON U.S.-TAIWAN RELATIONS," Washington, USIA Text, 05/20/98) said in testimony before the House
International Relations Committee on May 20 that progress in the US relationship with the PRC will not be
achieved at Taiwan's expense. Shirk stated, "this Administration remains firmly committed to fulfilling the
security and arms transfer provisions of the Taiwan Relations Act." She argued that US arms transfers to
Taiwan, "undertaken without upsetting the cross-Strait military balance, have promoted stability in cross-
Strait relations and given Taiwan the confidence to liberalize its policies and develop flourishing ties with
the mainland." She added that the US has supplied the Modified Air Defense System (MADS), which has
limited anti-missile capabilities, to Taiwan. She also stated, "We believe that the preparedness of our
forward deployed military forces in the Pacific enhances stability and dramatically reduces the prospect of
a crisis occurring or escalating." Shirk said that the consistent position of the Clinton Administration has
been that cross-Strait issues are matters to be resolved by Taiwan and the PRC, adding that further US
involvement "could well be counter-productive." She stated, "Let me emphasize that this Administration
does not consider the three relationships -- U.S.-PRC, U.S.-Taiwan, and Taiwan-PRC -- as a zero-sum
game. Improvements in U.S.-PRC relations do not result in damage to U.S.-Taiwan or cross-Strait
relations." She pledged that there will be no "fourth communique" on Taiwan arms sales or Taiwan issues
at the upcoming US-PRC summit. She reiterated that the US maintains a "one China" policy, adding,
"Consistent with this policy, we do not support 'two Chinas' or 'one China, one Taiwan,' Taiwan
independence, or Taiwan's membership in the UN." She added, "We believe that our engagement with the
PRC adds to ... regional stability -- and is thus of direct benefit to the people of Taiwan."
10. Missile Technology Transfer to PRC
The Associated Press (John Diamond, "FILES REVEAL CHINA WAIVER CONCERNS," Washington,
05/22/98) reported that national security documents showed that, before approving a waiver for Loral
Space and Communications' to launch a satellite in the PRC, US President Bill Clinton was cautioned that
Justice Department prosecutors feared that such a decision would jeopardize an ongoing criminal
investigation of the company. National Security Adviser Sandy Berger wrote the president on February 12,
"The criminal division of the Justice Department has cautioned that a national interest waiver in this case
could have a significant adverse impact on any prosecution that might take place based on a pending
investigation of export violation." However, the documents also show that the President's security advisers
concluded that Loral's satellite project "will not contribute to Chinese military capabilities."
The Associated Press (John Diamond, "CHINA'S LAUNCHERS, MISSILES SIMILAR," Washington,
05/21/98) and the New York Times (Eric Schmitt, "SENATE MAY CURB EXPORT OF SATELLITES
TO CHINA," Washington, 05/22/98) reported that the US Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) gave
Congress information Thursday that showed some similarities between PRC satellite launchers and
intercontinental ballistic missiles. The CIA said that staging mechanisms, guidance systems, re-entry
vehicles, and rocket motors all involve identical or similar technology. Senator Thad Cochran, R-Miss.,
argued, "It is important to understand how foreign countries can apply information and technology gained
from launching U.S. satellites to their own ICBM and satellite programs, and whether the administration's
current policy is sufficient to prevent this." William Graham, former deputy administrator of NASA and
science adviser to Presidents Reagan and Bush, stated, "The essential elements of an ICBM are the same
with the exception of the payload. Put another way, if you have a space-launch vehicle, you also have an
ICBM." However, John Pike, director of space policy for the Federation of American Scientists, said that
the PRC has had missiles that could reach the US since 1981, and newly acquired information would make
only a marginal difference.
11. Missile Defense System
The Washington Post carried an opinion article (Charles Krauthammer, "DEFENSELESS AMERICA,"
05/22/98, A25) which argued that the recent Indian nuclear tests demonstrate the inability of
nonproliferation efforts to stop the spread of weapons of mass destruction. The author argued, "The
obvious answer is to build anti-missile defenses." He maintained that the Anti-ballistic Missile (ABM)
Treaty has become obsolete with the demise of the Soviet Union. He criticized the Clinton administration
for extending the ABM treaty to Kazakhstan, Ukraine, and Belarus, thus "making it virtually impossible for
any future administration to revise the treaty to allow us to build the defenses we need." He added, "The
Clinton extension of the ABM treaty ... also constrains "theater" ABM systems -- those we are now
developing to defend our troops in the field." The author argued, "The greatest travesty is that all this is
being done unconstitutionally. The Senate has not ratified this treaty extension, yet the administration is
already implementing it -- for instance, exchanging information with the four countries about the
capabilities of our theater missile systems."
12. Global Land Mine Ban
The New York Times (Steven Lee Myers, "CLINTON AGREES TO LAND-MINE BAN, BUT NOT
YET," Washington, 05/22/98) reported that Clinton administration officials said Thursday that by 2006 the
US will sign the international treaty banning anti-personnel land mines, but only if the Defense Department
develops an alternative weapon. The pledge was made in a May 15 letter from the president's national
security adviser, Sandy Berger, to Senator Patrick Leahy, D-Vt. Leahy welcomed the letter, saying, "Now
it becomes a question not of if we'll sign it, but when." He added that, in exchange for the pledge, he
would agree to support an amendment to a moratorium on land mine use which will allow the
administration to waive the moratorium on national security grounds. However, on Thursday, Defense
Department officials said that finding such an alternative by the deadline is optimistic. One official stated,
"Right now no one can tell you what an alternative would even look like." Bobby Muller, the president of
the Vietnam Veterans of America Foundation, argued that many military experts already believe that
alternatives to the anti-personnel land mines exist. He stated, "The pledge shifts the debates from the treaty
to the alternatives. And with that we're going to put this over the goal line."
1. ROK-Japan Relations
The ROK, bowing to Japanese pressure, has expressed its intention to positively consider returning to an
ROK-Japan agreement on self-controlled fishing in specific water zones between the two countries in an
effort to create an atmosphere for an early settlement of bilateral negotiations to sign a new fishing
agreement. ROK Foreign Affairs-Trade Minister Park Chung-soo delivered the message to his Japanese
counterpart Keizo Obuchi during a meeting in Tokyo on Thursday, ROK officials said. Park, now on his
first visit to Japan as foreign affairs-trade minister, also met Japanese Prime Minister Ryutaro Hashimoto.
Park and Obuchi agreed to hold a "security dialogue," attended by Foreign Affairs-Trade and Defense
Ministry officials, late next month in Seoul. (Korea Times, "SEOUL BOWS TO TOKYO'S STANCE ON
FISHING PACT," 05/22/98)
2. Alleged Plot to Influence ROK Election
The "northern wind" case, triggered by a series of allegations during last year's presidential election that
Kim Dae-jung had connections with the DPRK, turned out to be an "unintended" combination of anti-DJ
operations by espionage officials of the rival Koreas. In a press conference wrapping up two months of
investigations, the Seoul District Prosecutors' Office (SDPO) concluded as such, saying that the DPRK did
not want to see Kim elected for fear of losing its initiative in future inter-Korean relations. The SDPO said
that the Agency for National Security Planning (NSP), the ROK intelligence agency, used this in the hopes
of helping the candidate of the then-ruling Grand National Party beat Kim. Kwon Young-hae, then NSP
director, is facing trial for his leading role in the affair, while 13 other NSP bureaucrats and politicians are
charged with an extensive operation of illegal interference in politics. The prosecution said that in Beijing
in July last year, the DPRK put together a team of agents charged with preventing Kim from being elected.
The DPRK anti-Kim team arranged for an ROK religious leader who earlier defected to the DPRK to send
a letter to Kim Dae-jung giving regards on behalf of DPRK leaders, the prosecution said. The prosecution
said that the NSP, knowing that the letter was part of the DPRK's anti-DJ operations, intentionally leaked it
to the press in order to raise questions over the then-presidential candidate's ideology. (Korea Times,
"NORTHERN WIND BUNGLED NSP ATTEMPT TO THWART DJ'S PRESIDENTIAL BID," 05/22/98)
1. DPRK Election
The Asahi Shimbun ("DPRK DECIDES TO HOLD SUPREME PEOPLE'S COMMITTEE ELECTION IN
JULY: KIM JONG IL MAY BECOME HEAD OF STATE AFTER ELECTION," Seoul, 05/21/98)
reported that, according to the DPRK Central Broadcasting Agency on May 21, the DPRK decided to hold
the 10th Supreme People's Committee in July for the first time in eight years, and that some observers in
Seoul and Tokyo say that Kim Jong-il may subsequently be elected head of state. The report pointed out
that the reason for the delay of the election was the death of Kim Il-sung, but that further irregular state
activities have prevented the election of the head of state and budget allocations from proceeding. The
report added that the date of the election of head of state may be planned for around September 9, when the
DPRK's 50th anniversary will be celebrated.
2. Japanese-Russia Fishery Relations
The Yomiuri Shimbun ("JAPANESE-RUSSIA FISHERY AGREEMENT WENT INTO EFFECT,"
05/22/98) reported that the Japan-Russia Fishery Agreement went into effect on May 21 after both the
Japanese and Russian governments finalized their ratification procedures and signed a mutual agreement of
understanding in Moscow on the same day. The report added that, although the negotiations that began in
1995 were kept from progressing because of the issue of scope of control in relation to the Northern
Territorial issue, the negotiations resumed in 1997 when both sides agreed to shelve the issue of scope of
control.
3. US Bases in Japan
The Yomiuri Shimbun ("OKINAWA GOVERNOR VISITS JAPANESE AMBASSADOR TO
WASHINGTON IN US TO DISCUSS BASE ISSUE IN OKINAWA," Washington, 05/20/98) reported
that Okinawa Prefecture Governor Masahide Ota met with Japanese Ambassador Kunihiko Saito in
Washington on May 19 to discuss the issue of construction of a heliport as an alternative to the US
Futenma Base, but that their talks got nowhere. Saito asked Ota to cooperate with the Japanese
government by softening his stance, saying, "If you accept the heliport, the return of the Futenma Base to
Okinawa will also go smoothly. I expect you to exercise your leadership in favor of implementation of the
Japan-US agreement for the sake of the benefit to your prefecture as a whole." In response, Ota said, "I, as
the Governor of the Okinawa Prefecture, have to take into account the will of the citizens of Okinawa. It is
difficult for me to accept the heliport."
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