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Northeast Asia Peace and Security Network DAILY REPORT For Thursday, June 18, 1998, from Berkeley, California, USA |
1. DPRK Film Released in Japan
The Associated Press ("NKOREAN 'GODZILLA' DEBUTS IN TOKYO," Tokyo,
06/17/98) reported that a DPRK film about an iron-eating monster named
"Pulgasari" is scheduled to debut in a Tokyo theater in July. The film
was made in 1985, but was banned both in the DPRK and abroad after its
director, Shin Sang-ok, sought asylum in the US in 1986. Media reports
said that Shin, an ROK citizen, and his wife were kidnapped in the late
1970s and held for several years to make movies for DPRK leader Kim Jong-
il. Several members of the Japanese film crew that made "Godzilla"
worked on the DPRK film as well.
2. US MIAs from Korean War
US deputy assistant secretary of state for East Asian and Pacific affairs
Charles Kartman ("KARTMAN 6/17 REMARKS TO HOUSE PANEL ON POW/MIA ISSUE,"
USIA Text, 06/17/98) said Wednesday that the US is seeking a full
accounting of all of the more than 8,100 servicemen missing from the
Korean War. Kartman stated, "We believe that the remains of most of
these men are still in the Democratic People's Republic of Korea." He
added, "progress in this area has been among the greatest in the range of
issues on which we and the North Koreans cooperate." Kartman said that
the 208 remains returned by the DPRK through the United Nations Command
(UNC) in Panmunjom have been difficult to identify because of poor DPRK
recovery techniques. He stated, "The problem underscored the need for
joint recovery operations (JROs), in which U.S. Army forensic specialists
could work together with DPRK military personnel to recover and return
remains of U.S. servicemen to the United States." He added, "Five JROs
and one joint archival review have been scheduled for 1998. The first of
these, in May, resulted in the recovery of two remains. U.S.
compensation to North Korea for the JROs is based on agreed-upon formulas
that are consistent with our practice worldwide." He said that the DPRK
has recently indicated that they saw a linkage between agreement on
General Officer talks and repatriation of remains. However, he stated,
"We continue to emphasize to the DPRK that the MIA remains issue must be
kept separate from all others on humanitarian grounds, and that both
sides must honor the agreements specifying the terms of each year's joint
operations." He added, "We are also committed to pursuing all
information about the fate of Americans possibly being held against their
will in North Korea, although to date there has been no substantiation of
such reports." He said that the DPRK government has said that, apart
from four US defectors in the postwar period, there are no US military
personnel living in the DPRK. Kartman stated, "We will continue to
insist on access to these four men to determine if they have any
knowledge of American POWs alive in the DPRK." He said that the US is
also "continuing to press senior Chinese officials to take steps to
advance cooperation on Korean War POW/MIA cases." He added that the US
is seeking a copy of the Chinese documentary film "Jiaoliang" (Test of
Strength), which reportedly contains footage of US Korean War POWs.
The Associated Press ("CHINA VISIT TO INCLUDE TALK OF MIAS," Washington,
06/17/98) reported that US Deputy Assistant Secretary of State Charles
Kartman said Wednesday that State Department officials are seeking to
obtain access from the PRC to sites, archives, museums, and any
information they have on US POWs from the Korean War. Kartman stated,
"At this point I can't say we're satisfied with Chinese cooperation in
this area. We'll continue to raise it during the course of the
president's summit meetings in China." He added, "If we can get the
cooperation started ... there's probably a gold mine of information to be
had."
3. Taiwan Cancels Military Exercises
Agence France Presse ("TAIWAN CANCELS MAJOR COMBAT DRILLS IN ADVANCE OF
CLINTON'S CHINA TRIP," Taipei, 06/18/98) reported that Taiwan's China
Times on Thursday quoted high-ranking military sources as saying that
Taiwan canceled all major combat drills scheduled in advance of US
President Bill Clinton's trip to the PRC. An unnamed high-ranking
officer said that any drill during this period, even small in scale,
"could lead to misunderstanding and unnecessary speculation which would
not be in the interest of Taiwan and the United States." A defense
officer confirmed that the "Peng Tung" exercises had been postponed, but
said this was "to ensure quality of the drills and safety of personnel"
and not because of the U.S.-China summit. Taiwan defense authorities
said earlier this week that full-scale military maneuvers involving up to
5,000 troops would be held later this year to deter the growing threat
from the PRC.
4. US-PRC Summit
Reuters (Steve Holland, "CLINTON TO PRESS CHINA ON MISSILES, RIGHTS,
TRADE," Washington, 06/17/98) reported that US National Security Adviser
Sandy Berger said on Wednesday that President Bill Clinton will press the
PRC on missile control issues, human rights, and opening trade barriers
during his upcoming visit there. Berger said Clinton and his aides on
the trip would "seek further steps by the Chinese to bring itself [sic]
wholly in line with international regimes" regarding arms technology
transfers.
Reuters ("CHINA URGES U.S. TO PUT DIFFERENCES ASIDE," Beijing, 06/18/98)
reported that the PRC's official People's Daily on Thursday carried a
front-page commentary urging the US to look beyond its differences with
the PRC to ensure the success of the upcoming US-PRC summit. The article
said that while Clinton's visit had broad popular support, "there are
also a few people who, limited by a Cold War mentality, run out at the
first opportunity spreading rumours, creating trouble and disturbing and
disrupting Sino-U.S. ties." It added, "We hope the U.S. side will adopt
a pragmatic and constructive attitude and not let differences between the
United States and China become obstacles to improving relations."
5. US-PRC Missile Targeting
The Associated Press (John Leicester, "CHINA, U.S. ARGUE OVER MISSILES,"
Beijing, 06/18/98) reported that PRC Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhu
Bangzao on Thursday reiterated that the PRC is uninterested in signing a
nuclear detargeting agreement with the US. Zhu stated, "We think it is
more important that the U.S. and China reach agreement on mutual non-
first use of nuclear weapons."
6. US-PRC Satellite Cooperation
Reuters ("CONGRESS URGED TO END CHINA SATELLITE LAUNCHES," Washington,
06/17/98), and the New York Times (Eric Schmitt, "CHINESE SUDDENLY
IMPROVED ROCKET LAUNCHES, EXPERT SAYS," Washington, 06/18/98) reported
that two nuclear proliferation experts told a US House of Representatives
hearing Wednesday that Congress should halt all US satellite launches on
PRC rockets until it determines if the practice endangers national
security. Henry Sokolski, executive director of the Nonproliferation
Policy Education Center, stated, "I would hope you would stick to that
position until you get to the bottom of this." Sokolski noted that
whereas between 1990 and 1996, one in four Chinese rockets carrying blew
up, since August 1996, the PRC has conducted 10 consecutive successful
launches. He asked, "Is that a coincidence or is it the result of
cumulative technology transfers?" Sokolski said he had no doubt that US
space technology had been transferred to the PRC that helped its military
arsenal. Likewise, Gary Milhollin, director of the Wisconsin Project on
Nuclear Arms Control, argued, "I think our satellite commerce with China
should be suspended until we have further information." However, Joan
Johnson-Freese, a professor at the Air War College at Maxwell Air Force
Base in Alabama, stated, "I would strongly urge you not to retreat from
the engagement policy with China, including U.S. satellite launches,
which has enhanced our strategic position there."
The Associated Press (Tom Raum, "CONGRESS LOOKS INTO CLINTON POLICY,"
Washington, 06/18/98) reported that top US government officials on
Thursday rejected allegations that President Bill Clinton's export
decisions helped the PRC improve the accuracy and reliability of its
ballistic missiles. Jan M. Lodal, deputy undersecretary of defense, told
a joint hearing of two House of Representative committees, "I do not
believe there has been any transfer of these sensitive technologies to
their military program." John D. Holum, acting undersecretary of state
for arms control and international security affairs, told the hearing,
"We're satisfied no authorized transfers ... contributed to their space
launch program." He added that "the technologies are dramatically
different" between rockets that put communications satellites in orbit
and those that can carry multiple nuclear warheads to targets.
7. South Asian Nuclear Weapon Potentials
The Associated Press (Edith M. Lederer, "INDIA NUKE ARSENAL: HOW BIG IS
IT?" London, 06/18/98) reported that Jane's Intelligence Review reported
Wednesday that India's potential nuclear arsenal would be bigger than
Britain's and in the same league as the French and Chinese. The article
was written mainly by W.P.S. Sidhu, a South Asian security expert at the
Rockefeller Foundation. It stated that if India's commercial reactor
fuel were taken into account, the country would possess enough fissile
material to build at least 390 nuclear weapons and as many as 470
weapons. According to estimates by the Washington-based National
Resources Defense Council, at the end of 1996 Britain had 260 nuclear
weapons, the PRC had 400, and France had 450. The article in Jane's said
that, in addition to the land-based Prithvi and Agni missiles, India is
also working on a ship-launched version of the Prithvi, which could be
operational by 2001, and a submarine-launched missile called Sagarika,
which could be operational by 2010. On the other hand, Pakistan
exhausted a significant part of its arsenal in last month's nuclear
tests, and the poor performance of its weapons revealed the country's
strategic nuclear weakness. The report said that analysts believe that
Pakistan's tests involved a maximum of three devices, and not five as the
government claimed. The estimated cumulative force of the blasts is most
likely around six kilotons, smaller than the 18 kilotons that the
Pakistani government reported. The report added that Pakistan's second
blast measured only 1.2 kilotons, suggesting that the test was "a
fizzle."
1. ROK-DPRK Unification Festival
The ROK government, at the National Security Council meeting on Thursday,
decided to accept in principle the proposal by the DPRK for a unification
grand festival at Panmunjom on August 15. The proposal was sent to 85
political, social, and religious leaders last Monday. An ROK government
official said that the decision to accept the proposal came about because
the DPRK did not demand the scrapping of national security laws or the
disbanding of the National Security Planning Agency, or request to stage
political events such as mass rallies. He added, however, that the
government would not accept the proposal as such, but offer a
counterproposal, as there were several illegal organizations included
among the 85 receiving the proposal. The government is also seriously
considering the DPRK proposals for a Seoul-Pyongyang student soccer
match, a joint music concert, and a joint Christian prayer session at
Panmunjom. (Chosun Ilbo, "GOVERNMENT TO ACCEPT NORTH UNIFICATION
FESTIVAL PROPOSAL," 06/18/98)
1. DPRK Missile Policy
According to a report in Wen Hui Daily ("DPRK WILL CONTINUE ITS
DEVELOPMENT OF MISSILE," Pyongyang, A7, 6/17/98), the DPRK said on June
16 that it will continue to develop, test, and deploy missiles. In a
commentary issued by the Korean Central News Agency entitled "None Can
Use DPRK's Missile Policy to Do Deal," the DPRK said that as long as it
remains subjected to a military threat from outside, it should produce
and deploy military equipment to safeguard the security of the country
and the people. The commentary argued that in the environment in which
the US pursued a policy of economically isolating the DPRK, missile
exports are the option the DPRK had to take to obtain the foreign money
it needs.
2. ROK-DPRK Relations
People's Daily ("ROK ENTERPRISER VISITS DPRK," Pyongyang, A6, 6/17/98)
reported that Hyundai Group honorary chairman Chung Ju-yung began his
eight-day visit to the DPRK on June 16. He is the first industrialist to
visit the DPRK through Panmunjom since the division of Korea.
3. Kim Dae-jung's US Visit
People's Daily ("KIM VISITS THE US FOR ECONOMIC AID," A6, 6/16/98) said
on June 16 that ROK President Kim Dae-jung's visit to the US was mainly
to obtain economic aid from the US to help the ROK overcome its financial
crisis. It shows that the economic cooperation between the US and ROK is
entering into a new stage, the article said. During the summit, the two
presidents also discussed the relations between the ROK and the DPRK, the
commentary said.
4. US High-Tech Exports to China
Jie Fang Daily ("US SHOULD LOOSEN LIMITS ON HIGH-TECH EXPORTS TO CHINA,"
Beijing, A3, 6/16/98) reported that Zeng Yanpei, Director of the PRC
State Development Planning Commission, said in an interview that the US
should loosen its restrictions on technology exports to the PRC, which
will help to expand US exports to the PRC and reduce the trade imbalance
between the two countries. Zeng also urged the US to permanently resolve
the issue of the PRC's most favored nation status as early as possible
and to support the PRC's entry into the World Trade Organization.
5. PRC-US Scientific Cooperation
China Daily ("SCIENCE COOPERATION SUPPORTS RELATIONS," A1, 6/15/98)
reported that Sino-US cooperation in science and technology is a major
component of the friendly relations between the two countries. Hui
Yongzheng, PRC vice-minister of science and technology, said in an
interview that prospective cooperation between the two countries is
likely to cover such fields as environmental protection, public health,
energy efficiency, disaster relief, effective use of water resources, and
water conservation. His ministry is working closely with a number of US
government departments to identify areas for establishing cooperative
projects between Chinese and US scholars.
1. DPRK Economy
An item in the ROK Section of the Daily Report for June 17 stated that
the DPRK's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) shrank to US$741 million last
year. The item should have said that the GDP per capita shrank to
US$741.
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