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Northeast Asia Peace and Security Network DAILY REPORT For Thursday, June 25, 1998, from Berkeley, California, USA |
1. Captured DPRK Submarine
Reuters (Yun Suk-bong, "REPORTS SAY BODIES FOUND IN N. KOREAN SUB,"
Donghae, 06/25/98) and the Associated Press (Sang-Hun Choe, "SUNKEN N.
KOREAN SUBMARINE RAISED," Donghae, 06/25/98) reported that the ROK's
state-run Korea Broadcasting System (KBS) television said on Thursday
that ROK salvage workers found dead bodies in the captured DPRK submarine
after it was hauled ashore. The report said that the bodies were found
on the floor lying in some 12 inches of water. ROK defense ministry
officials said they had not yet received confirmation that bodies were
found in the submarine. ROK navy officials said that they found two ROK-
made plastic beverage containers during their search of the submarine,
which they pointed to as indication that the vessel was returning after
dropping off or picking up spies. ROK President Kim Dae-jung, in a
speech to war veterans on the 48th anniversary of the start of the Korean
War, stated, "As the intrusion into our territorial waters by a North
Korean submarine shows, military tensions are continuing." He added,
"However, while maintaining a firm posture, the newly established
government of the people will protect peace and cooperation with the
North according to a flexible North Korea policy."
2. Alleged Transfer of Missile Technology to PRC
State Department Spokesman James Rubin ("STATE DEPARTMENT NOON BRIEFING,
JUNE 24, 1998," USIA Transcript, Washington, 06/24/98) said that, when an
Intelsat satellite crashed atop a PRC rocket in February 1996, the
command process or boxes as a whole were recovered, but not all of the
circuit boards which contained the encryption information. Rubin stated,
"In this case, the encryption involved embedded single-chip devices that
are unique for this particular satellite. Moreover, this encryption
system used older algorithms that are no longer used in newer satellites.
Therefore any loss of the chips and associated encryption algorithms
would have had only minimum impact because the Intelsat satellite used
these old keys which are not unique. There is some chance that a third
party could examine recovered devices to gain some knowledge, but we
believe the impact on national security would not be significant." He
added, "We do not know, as I understand it, what happened and where this
is; but certainly in the course of the technical discussions that are
ongoing between us and the Chinese in the satellite launch area that are
pursuant to the various licensing, we will want to find out what happened
to this chip."
3. US-PRC-Taiwan
The Los Angeles Times carried an opinion article (Lynn T. White III,
"BROKER A CROSS-STRAIT TRUCE," 06/25/98) which said that US interests
will become difficult to serve without a truce across the Taiwan Strait.
The author argued, "During a specified long time (perhaps 50 years),
Beijing could forswear the use of military force against Taiwan, and
Taipei could forswear the pursuit of independence from China." However,
the article stated, "no such truce is likely to be negotiated--because
America unintentionally supports politicians in both Taipei and Beijing
who benefit from reiterated cross-strait military crises." It argued
that US policy breeds separatism in Taiwan and anger in the PRC. It
warned that the chance of a truce is declining, stating, "Repeated
violence portends war after a decade or so." It added, "A temporary
truce, however, would allow time for China's institutions of
revolutionary dictatorship to change further and conceivably to
liberalize. In Taiwan, it would allow time to mellow the bitterness that
remains after Chiang Kai-shek's repression of Taiwanese leaders." The
author argued, "Taiwan's governing autonomists do not have a credible
medium-term security policy, and a truce would give them one." He added,
"Beijing's leaders can realize that China's future power will prejudge
the unification issue in their favor so their only real question is
whether they want a war option as such." He argued, "Until our president
publicizes America's concerns for Taiwan's democracy as consistent with
America's concerns for China's unification, the implicit war factions in
Taipei and Beijing will continue to trump U.S. policy.". The author
concluded, "Washington cannot directly mediate the cross-strait dispute,
but the president can pressure both sides to reach an interim truce
before their symbolic violence becomes real."
1. Captured DPRK Submarine
A spokesman for the ROK Ministry of National Defense (MOND) announced
Wednesday that salvage work on the sunken DPRK submarine commenced in the
early morning and is expected to be completed early Thursday at the
latest. Once afloat, the submarine will be towed into the port of
Donghae, where experts will try to open it and determine the fate of its
crew. Military analysts feel that there is little chance of there being
anyone left alive in the submarine, figuring that the crew either
committed suicide or used an escape hatch earlier, which may have been
the cause of the sinking. (Chosun Ilbo, "SUNKEN SUBMARINE BEING RE-
FLOATED," 06/25/98)
ROK Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) operations chief Major General Lim Chong-
chon said in a press conference Tuesday that there were no signs of
ground infiltration by DPRK submarine crew members or agents whom they
might have dropped off. Regarding the hood of a wet suit found on the
Sokcho beach following the discovery of the submarine, Defense Ministry
sources said that it was concluded that the hood had nothing to do with
the ongoing episode. An internal ministry memo showed that a possible
sighting of unidentified persons was reported near the eastern section of
the Demilitarized Zone that includes Sokcho, but it proved to be a false
alarm. Naval officers of the JCS also speculated that the submarine was
likely on its way to the coast to either drop off or retrieve agents,
citing the time at which the sub was stranded and subsequently sighted.
JCS officers said that military units enhanced their alert status in the
area, stepping up search efforts for possible DPRK agents. In addition,
a higher alert is in place along the coastal area, according to ministry
officials. Ministry sources said that the lack of evidence does not
necessarily guarantee that there were no infiltrators. One ministry
official said, "The sub is capable of up to 10 men, who are composed of 5
to 6 crew members, one guide who knows the ropes around the area of
infiltration, and a couple of spies, when on a routine mission. In this
case, their mission is strictly spying on important facilities." He
added, "If the North wanted to stage an act of terrorism ... it would
require a larger sub at least the size of the Sango class that was used
in the Kangnung sub incident two years ago." Another ministry official
stated, "In the private capacity of one who knows the situation, I can't
say with absolute assurance that there has been only two cases of
infiltration by DPRK subs along the eastern coast in the past two years."
Naval officers believed that in light of missions typical to this type of
submarine, it is most likely that the crew destroyed all evidence before
escaping or committing suicide in order to prevent being captured alive.
(Korea Times, "QUESTIONS ABOUND ABOUT AGENTS FROM NK SUB," 06/25/98)
2. ROK'S DPRK Policy
The ROK presidential office announced Tuesday that the government's
"sunshine policy" toward the DPRK would continue. The DPRK did confirm
that one of its submarines had gone missing last Saturday, but emphasized
that it was on a training mission. In related news, the Ministry of
National Defense (MOND) has postponed the usual warning it issues to the
DPRK after such incidents. A formal announcement will be delivered
following a complete investigation. (Chosun Ilbo, "GOVERNMENT REAFFIRMS
'SUNSHINE POLICY'", 06/25/98)
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The Center for Global Communications, Tokyo, Japan
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