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Northeast Asia Peace and Security Network DAILY REPORT For Thursday, July 2, 1998, from Berkeley, California, USA |
1. Captured DPRK Submarine
The Associated Press ("UNC-N.KOREA TO HOLD TALKS ON REPATRIATION," Seoul,
07/02/98) and United Press International ("N. KOREAN BODIES TO BE
RETURNED," Seoul, 07/01/98) reported that the UN Command (UNC) said
Thursday that the bodies of nine men found in the captured DPRK submarine
will be returned to the DPRK on Friday in a brief ceremony at Panmunjom.
The UNC said that DPRK officials "offered no objection" when presented
with evidence at a meeting with UNC at Panmunjom on Tuesday that the
crewmembers had committed suicide to avoid capture. The UNC stated, "The
U.N. Command understood this to mean North Korean acknowledgment of its
explanation." It added that the DPRK would be asked at future meetings
to acknowledge the incident, punish those responsible, and assure against
a recurrence. Meanwhile, the ROK's state-run Yonhap news agency cited
foreign ministry official Kwon Jong-rak as saying that the ROK plans to
send a letter to the president of the UN Security Council regarding the
DPRK submarine incursion. Kwon stated, "We just want to bring this issue
to the Security Council's attention." He added, "We will continue to
abide by the agreed framework which calls for construction of two nuclear
reactors for North Korea. The sub incident clearly shows the need for us
to speed up the four-party talks."
2. DPRK Famine
The Associated Press ("U.N. AGENCY: NORTH KOREA NEEDS MORE FOOD AID IN
1998," Rome, 07/02/98) reported that the World Food Program (WFP) said
Thursday that the DPRK will need another 500,000 tons of food aid this
year in addition to what has already been pledged. The WFP said that the
food supply situation "remains precarious and is expected to worsen over
the next two critical months as stocks become exhausted." It called on
donor nations and agencies to ensure that the 800,000 tons of food aid
pledged arrives before the next harvest in October. It added that it
expected the DPRK to buy 500,000 tons, leaving another 500,000 tons in
uncovered food needs.
3. ROK-DPRK Economic Cooperation
Dow Jones Newswires ("S. KOREA HYUNDAI GRP TO SET UP VENTURE IN N. KOREA
END JULY," Seoul, 07/02/98) and Reuters ("SOUTH KOREA'S HYUNDAI SAYS
SETTING UP N.KOREA PROJECT," Seoul, 07/01/98) reported that a spokesman
for the Hyundai Group said Thursday that Hyundai will set up a joint-
venture company by the end of July for the development of Mount Kumkang
in the DPRK. He said that the agreement was signed by the group's
Honorary Chairman Chung Ju-young and the DPRK's Asia Pacific Peace
Committee when Chung visited there in June. He added, "However, details
including the amount of investment will be discussed when our working
level officials visit North Korea in early July." He said that port
facilities for ships transporting ROK tourists would be completed by
September 25. He added that the group is currently waiting for approval
from the ROK government. He stated that Hyundai has also agreed with the
DPRK committee to relocate the group's production lines of such products
as textile, shoes, and leather to the DPRK. He added, "The plant sites
should be near South Korea and should be conveniently placed to export
the products." Hyundai expects the amount of overseas sales from the
plants will reach at least US$4.4 billion annually. The group said that
it is also seeking to build a car assembly plant and power plant in the
DPRK.
4. ROK Political Prisoners
The New York Times (Stephanie Strom, "PRESIDENT ORDERS RELEASE OF 500
POLITICAL PRISONERS," Seoul, 07/02/98) reported that ROK President Kim
Dae-jung on Wednesday ordered the release of political prisoners by
August 15, even if they do not renounce their ideological views.
Government officials indicated that a large number of the 500 political
prisoners that human rights groups estimate are being held in the ROK
would be released, but the precise number was not announced. Local press
reports said that Woo Yong-gak, widely regarded as the world's longest-
serving political prisoner, would be among those freed. Woo has spent
almost 40 years in solitary confinement. ROK media quoted Justice
Minister Park Sang-cheon as saying, "Requiring violators of the National
Security Law to abandon their ideology and beliefs goes against
constitutionally guaranteed freedom of conscience." However, the
government will still require the freed prisoners to abide by the
National Security Law. Seo Joon-shik, a former political prisoner who
heads the Sarangbang Group for Human Rights, stated, "There is no
fundamental difference between the current policy of denouncing one's
ideological beliefs and the proposed policy of receiving pardon by
agreeing not to violate Korean laws."
5. US Arms Sales to Taiwan
Reuters ("CHINA CAUTIONS U.S. ON TAIWAN ARMS SALES," Beijing, 07/02/98)
reported that PRC foreign ministry spokesman Tang Guoqiang on Thursday
said that the PRC was "firmly opposed" to US arms sales to Taiwan. He
stated, "This is in order to avoid the use of force and to strive to use
peaceful means to realize the reunification of Taiwan with the mainland."
He added, "We hope that the United States, in accordance with the
principles laid out in the three Sino-U.S. joint communiques, will adopt
a cautious attitude towards weapons sales to Taiwan." On Wednesday, US
Deputy National Security Adviser James Steinberg stated, "We'll continue
to sell arms to Taiwan consistent with our law and the three
communiques." He added, "Our arm sales are exclusively defensive and for
the legitimate defensive needs of Taiwan. That is something we will
continue to do."
6. Taiwanese Independence
Reuters (Jim Wolf, "THINK TANK SAYS TAIWAN COULD SPARK WAR," Washington,
07/01/98) reported that the Institute for National Strategic Studies, a
think tank funded by the US Department of Defense, concluded in a study
published late last month that any declaration of independence by Taiwan
probably would lead to a war with the PRC, into which the US might be
drawn. The study suggested that the Clinton administration should
consider naming a special envoy for PRC-Taiwan relations to forestall any
such conflict. The study's editors, Hans Binnendijk and Ronald
Montaperto, concluded that by 2015 the PRC might deploy a force "that
could begin to mirror some of the U.S. military capabilities of the early
1990s." They added, "There is a new dynamic in relations across the
Taiwan Strait. Taipei has come to view itself as a sovereign government
equal to Beijing, while many in Beijing believe that Taiwan authorities
are preparing for independence." Montaperto stated, "No one really knows
what mix of responses China would make in those circumstances. In the
United States, it would be an extremely emotional and highly charged
question -- and that's how the United States could be dragged into it."
7. Indian Views of US-PRC Summit
The Associated Press ("U.S.-CHINESE NUCLEAR ENTENTE WORRIES INDIA'S
GOVERNMENT," New Delhi, 07/02/98) reported that Defense Minister George
Fernandes was quoted in the July issue of Jane's Defense Weekly as saying
that India is wary of the US-PRC detargeting agreement. Fernandes
stated, "If Beijing decides not to target Washington ... India would be
China's prime enemy." He added, "India has to be more concerned about
the Sino-U.S. alliance than it has been so far."
8. Defection of Pakistani Nuclear Scientist
The New York Times (John Kifner, "PAKISTANI SAYS NUCLEAR STRIKE WAS
PLANNED ON INDIA," New York, 07/02/98) reported that Dr. Iftikhar Khan
Chaudhry, a Pakistani scientist seeking asylum in the US, said Wednesday
that Pakistan's top military leadership, fearing an imminent Indian
nuclear attack, decided on April 25 to launch a pre-emptive nuclear
strike within 48 hours. He also said that Pakistan had already armed and
deployed missiles with nuclear warheads at two sites along the Indian
border and had enough fissionable material for 12 to 18 warheads. He
added that he had seen Iranian and Chinese technicians at Pakistan's
nuclear plants and that the program received funds from Saudi Arabia and
the United Arab Emirates. However, Ahmad Kamal, the Pakistani
representative to the UN, said that Khan had made up his story in order
to gain US citizenship. Kamal stated, "This man is a total fraud. He
has an identity card which is a forgery, and it's a bad forgery at that."
He said that Khan's identification card from the Pakistan Atomic Energy
Commission was phony because it bore the general crest of the Pakistani
government rather than the special seal of the Atomic Energy Commission.
He added that the card also bore the name of the Ministry of Science and
Technology, whereas the Atomic Energy Commission is a separate
organization that reports directly to the prime minister. Kamal said
that Pakistani authorities believed that Khan might be a man who worked
briefly in an entry-level job for the nuclear program in the early 1980s.
The Associated Press ("PAKISTAN REJECTS ALLEGATIONS IT PLANNED TO USE
WEAPONS FIRST," Islamabad, 07/02/98) reported that Pakistan Foreign
Minister Gohar Ayub on Thursday dismissed allegations that Pakistan
earlier had planned a nuclear first strike against India. He said that
Pakistan had made "elaborate plans" to retaliate if India attacked its
nuclear facilities, but there was no strategy of first-use.
US State Department Spokesman James Rubin ("STATE DEPARTMENT NOON
BRIEFING, JULY 1," Washington, USIA Transcript, 07/01/98) said that the
US had no information regarding the alleged Pakistani defector beyond
what had been reported in the media.
9. US-Russian Nuclear Reductions
US State Department Spokesman James Rubin ("STATE DEPARTMENT NOON
BRIEFING, JULY 1," Washington, USIA Transcript, 07/01/98) said that the
US believes that the best way to pursue reductions in the number of
nuclear weapons is through a controlled process of treaties, and a
controlled process of verification. He added that while the presidents
of the US and Russia have already agreed on some general ranges on the
objectives of START III, "to get down and negotiate that agreement, both
the President of Russia and the President of the United States believe
the necessary prerequisite is ratification of START II." He stated, "we
do believe that, as President Yeltsin continues to put the pressure on
and explain to the members of the Duma that it is hurting Russia for
START II not to be ratified, that logic and wisdom will prevail."
10. US Nuclear Costs
US State Department Spokesman James Rubin ("STATE DEPARTMENT NOON
BRIEFING, JULY 1," Washington, USIA Transcript, 07/01/98) said that the
need to fight to contain communism and to deter the use of nuclear
weapons against the US necessitated the creation and maintenance of the
US nuclear arsenal. He added, "I think as a government we would also
argue that it was worth the expense -- that communism was worth deterring
through a combined policy of containment and modernization of nuclear
forces." He said that the US is now "in a time when we're trying to
bring to bear the arms control experience across a whole panoply of
activities that was never part of the arms control process during those
days; including, for example, the fact that we're trying to bring fissile
material into the equation, that we're trying to include the counting of
warheads, not just the counting of missiles and delivery systems."
11. US Uranium Sales
The New York Times (Peter Passell, "ECONOMIC SCENE: COULD URANIUM
PRIVATIZATION AID NUCLEAR PROLIFERATION?" 07/02/98) reported that many
analysts are worried that the privatization of the US Enrichment Corp.,
which was announced Monday by the US Treasury Department, would undermine
nuclear nonproliferation efforts by creating financial incentives for the
company to scuttle a 1993 agreement to import 500 tons of bomb-grade
uranium from Russia. Under the agreement, US Enrichment Corp. buys
Russian bomb-grade uranium, blends it with natural uranium to make fuel
for commercial power reactors, and resells it on the international
market. Richard Falkenrath, an economist at Harvard's Kennedy School of
Government, stated, "Privatization is a foreign policy disaster waiting
to happen." Joseph Stiglitz, former chairman of the President's Council
of Economic Advisers, argued that, as long as the price paid to the
Russians was higher than the corporation's own cost of producing reactor
fuel, it would have an incentive to buy as little Russian enriched
uranium as possible.
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