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Northeast Asia Peace and Security Network DAILY REPORT For Monday, July 13, 1998, from Berkeley, California, USA |
1. Body of Alleged DPRK Infiltrator Found
The Associated Press ("S. KOREA ON ALERT AFTER BODY FOUND," Seoul,
07/12/98) and the New York Times (Nicholas D. Kristof, "DEAD DIVER FROM
NORTH PUTS SEOUL ON ALERT," Tokyo, 07/13/98) reported that the body of a
person believed to have been a DPRK spy was found Sunday in the ROK.
Defense Ministry doctors examined the body and said that the man had died
of a heart attack and had been dead between 24 and 48 hours. The diver,
whose body apparently washed up on the beach, was carrying a Czech-made
submachine gun, a hand grenade, radio transmission, gear and an
underwater camera, the ROK military said. Nearby, investigators found a
cone-shaped aluminum submersible boat that could carry up to five
commandos. Kang Jun-kwon, an ROK Defense Ministry spokesman, said in a
statement, "Judging from the objects found, it has been proven that the
dead diver was an armed infiltrator." He added, "We ... urge North Korea
to stop reckless armed provocations and warn sternly that we would not
tolerate this kind of action." ROK troops on the eastern coast were
placed on alert Sunday and a curfew was declared in the area. Lee Jong-
chan, head of the ROK Agency of National Security Planning, warned last
week that the DPRK might step up spying and terrorism against the ROK in
the next couple of months before the expected inauguration of DPRK leader
Kim Jong-il as president. Some DPRK experts have also suggested that
some elements within the DPRK leadership are trying to derail the ROK's
efforts to promote peace and allow hard-liners to prevail in the ROK, as
Kim Dae-jung's policy derails the DPRK's anti-ROK propaganda.
2. Kim Jong-il's Ascension
The Associated Press ("N. KOREAN MOVES NEARER PRESIDENCY," Seoul,
07/12/98) reported that DPRK leader Kim Jong-il on Sunday announced that
he will run in constituency No. 666 in the July 26 elections for the
Supreme People's Assembly. The move followed appeals by all DPRK
parliamentary constituencies nominating Kim as their only candidate last
week. ROK analysts see the move as a step toward his assumption of the
president's office. Naewoe Press, the ROK government-run news agency
which monitors the DPRK, said, "The abnormal state in North Korea may
finally be coming to an end." DPRK watchers in Seoul said that Kim is
likely to be elected president around September 9, when the DPRK
celebrates the 50th anniversary of its founding.
3. US-ROK Cooperation on DPRK Policy
The Associated Press (Kalpana Srinivasan, "SKOREAN OFFICIAL URGES US
ALLIANCE," Washington, 07/10/98) reported that ROK Defense Minister Chun
Yong-taek said Friday that the ROK hopes its relations with the US will
help ease the effects of the Asian financial crisis and promote
engagement with the DPRK. Chun stated, "It goes without saying that
deterrence and crisis management on the Korean Peninsula serve the vital
interests of both Korea and the United States." He pointed to the recent
seizure of a DPRK submarine as evidence of the tensions on the peninsula,
saying that the capture "outraged the Korean people" since it occurred 18
months after a similar incident. He added, "This incident, once again,
made me realize the difficulties involved in crisis management on the
Korean Peninsula, considering North Korea's inconsistent dual behavior of
provocation and accommodation." He said that persuading the DPRK to
abandon its use of military force, open itself to reform, and sign the
Chemical Weapons Convention should be among the joint goals of US and ROK
policy. Chun also argued that the Asian financial crisis has created a
new threat from DPRK by creating the potential for chaos from widespread
famine and refugee flows. He stressed the need for crisis management to
prevent these issues from undermining stability on the peninsula. Chun
concluded, "We must employ an appropriate mix of sticks and carrots to
ensure peace and stability on the Korean peninsula and, at the same time,
prevent North Korean from using brinkmanship tactics and famine as its
negotiation cards."
4. ROK-PRC Relations
The Associated Press ("CHINA PRAISES S. KOREA FOR WEATHERING ECONOMIC
CRISIS," Beijing, 07/13/98) reported that PRC President Jiang Zemin, in a
meeting with ROK Minister of Foreign Affairs and Trade Park Chung-soo on
Monday, praised the ROK as having weathered the worst of its financial
crisis. Jiang also said that the PRC would continue to play its part in
easing Asia's financial troubles. Jiang said that the PRC has
consistently hoped for peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula and
has played "its due role" in that regard. Park responded by praising the
PRC for not devaluing its currency. He said, "the stability and
development of China's political and economic situation is extremely
important to Asia's future." ROK Foreign Ministry officials said before
his departure that Park would seek the PRC's support for ROK President
Kim Dae-jung's policy of expanding contacts and cooperation with the
DPRK.
5. Taiwanese Independence
The Wall Street Journal (Russell Flannery, "CLINTON'S COMMENTS GIVE BOOST
TO TAIWAN INDEPENDENCE PARTY," Taipei, 07/13/98) reported that Ben Wei,
the acting secretary general of the Taiwan Independence Party, said that
US President Bill Clinton's remarks about Taiwan last month in Shanghai
has boosted his party's popularity. Wei stated, "Clinton's action in
Shanghai will help us win more votes. Almost every day we're invited by
a TV talk show, and we get a lot of call-ins to support us." The Taiwan
Independence Party believes that Taiwan should move as quickly as
possible to hold a plebiscite on whether to alter its constitution and
make the island formally independent from the PRC. Wei said that he is
not worried about military reprisals by the PRC if Taiwan formally
declares independence, arguing, "Before 2005, China doesn't have
sufficient military power to attack Taiwan." Milton Yeh, a senior
Chinese political expert at the Taiwan Institution of International
Relations, said that perceptions that the Clinton administration is
tilting toward the PRC may cause some supporters of Taiwanese
independence to switch from the main opposition Democratic Progressive
Party (DPP) to the Taiwan Independence Party. Yeh stated, "Clinton's
statement brings a lot of trouble for the DPP." Likewise Tim Ting, chief
consultant at Gallup Taiwan, said that the Taiwan Independence Party
could win as much as 5 percent in year-end legislative elections. Ting
said, "The independence supporters in the DPP are in panic" that their
supporters will back Taiwan Independence Party candidates. However, a
poll by the Taiwan cable station TVBS found support for independence at
19 percent last month, down from 30 percent last October. The same poll
showed that only 13.5 of respondents supported reunification with the
PRC, down from 22.5 percent nine months ago.
6. French Arms Sales to Taiwan
Reuters ("FRANCE READY TO RESUME TAIWAN ARM SALES," Taipei, 07/13/98)
reported that Taipei's United Daily News said on Monday that France had
offered to sell advanced torpedoes and 1,500-ton frigates to Taiwan.
Taiwan's Defense Ministry declined to comment and no Taiwan government
officials would corroborate the report. France had promised the PRC in
1994 to stop such sales.
7. Japanese-Russian Relations
The Associated Press ("REPORT: JAPAN BOATS HELD BY RUSSIA," Moscow,
07/11/98) reported that the ITAR-Tass news agency said Saturday that
Russian border guards detained four Japanese fishing vessels off the
disputed Kuril Islands and escorted them to port for investigation.
Russian President Boris Yeltsin spoke by telephone with Japanese Prime
Minister Ryutaro Hashimoto, but it unclear whether the boating incident
was discussed.
8. Resignation of Japanese Prime Minister
The Washington Post (Kevin Sullivan and Mary Jordan, "JAPAN'S PREMIER
QUITS AFTER ELECTION SETBACK," Tokyo, 07/13/98, A01), the Associated
Press (Eric Talmadge, "JAPANESE PREMIER HASHIMOTO RESIGNS," Tokyo,
07/13/98), Reuters, (Brian Williams, "JAPAN IN LIMBO WITH NEW LEADER 17
DAYS AWAY," Tokyo, 07/13/98), and the New York Times (Nicholas D.
Kristof, "JAPANESE PREMIER RESIGNS AS VOTERS REBUKE HIS PARTY," Tokyo,
07/13/98) reported that Japanese Prime Minister Ryutaro Hashimoto
resigned Monday after his Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) suffered a
defeat in national parliamentary elections on Sunday. In an election
that featured a 60 percent turnout, the ruling retained only 44 seats of
the 61 it was defending in the upper house, leaving it with 102 of the
house's 252 seats. The Communist Party picked up nine new seats for a
total of 15, while the Democratic Party also picked up nine seats for a
total of 27. The LDP still holds a 13-vote majority in the lower house.
Hashimoto stated, "The defeat in the elections is solely my
responsibility ... everything is my responsibility; there is nothing else
to be said." Hashimoto will remain in office until a successor is chosen
from his party by the Diet when it meets later this month. Hashimoto had
been scheduled to travel to Washington next week for a state visit, but
he announced at his news conference that he would call US President Bill
Clinton to cancel the trip. Democratic Party leader Naoto Kan called for
early elections for the lower house. Lower house general elections must
be held by 2000.
1. Light-Water Reactor Project
ROK companies involved in the DPRK nuclear reactor project are concerned
about their future venture as the key member countries of the US-led
consortium failed to make progress in cost-sharing talks. The Korea
Electric Power Corp., Hyundai Construction Co., and Dong-Ah Construction
Co., which have been engaged in leveling the grounds in preparation for
the full-fledged reactor construction in Kumho, are close to completing
their task. Under a preliminary contract with the Korean Peninsula
Energy Development Organization (KEDO), they are scheduled to finish the
preparatory works by early next month. However, the ROK workers will
have to leave the construction site next month if the ROK, Japan, and the
US fail to agree on how to share the estimated total cost of around
US$4.6 billion. Other possible options are to extend the contract on
ground-leveling construction or go on with the main construction and pay
later in order to keep the ROK engineers at the construction site. The
ROK pledged to pay 70 percent of the total cost while Japan vowed to
offer US$1 billion. The remaining amount, estimated at US$400 million,
has yet to be committed by any country. (Korea Times, "S. KOREAN FIRMS
CONCERNED OVER DELAY IN KEDO TALKS," 07/13/96)
The US government is seeking funds to purchase fuel oil for the DPRK that
was promised in the 1994 Geneva agreement, the US State Department said
on July 6. The administration has persuaded the US Congress to grant
US$5 million to pay for additional shipments of 66,000 metric tons of
fuel oil to be delivered later this month. Even with the latest
installment, however, more then half of the promised shipment of heavy
oil remains in limbo, raising fears that the agreement might collapse.
(Korea Times, "US SEEKS FUNDS TO SALVAGE NORTH KOREAN NUKE DEAL,"
07/08/98)
2. US Sanctions on DPRK
The DPRK demanded Saturday that the US end economic sanctions against it
to open the way for bigger and swifter supplies of food and medicine.
The DPRK's official Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) carried the demand
and reported that the country's food stock has run out and many people
were living on "substitute food," meaning grass, bark, and roots.
Quoting the UN World Food Program and other relief agencies, the DPRK
said that the outside world needs to "pay deep concern" to the DPRK,
where farm crops were damaged again this year by bad weather. "The US
should, in response to their humanitarian appeal, lift the unreasonable
ban on the DPRK as early as possible for wide-ranging assistance," KCNA
said. (Korea Times, "NK DEMANDS WASHINGTON TO LIFT ECONOMIC SANCTIONS,"
07/13/98)
3. Body of Alleged DPRK Infiltrator Found
A drowned body of an apparent armed DPRK agent and his submersible
propulsion unit was found on the shore near Tonghae in Kangwon province,
only twenty days after a submarine was captured in the East Sea. The
local military issued an alert and started a search to find any other
infiltrators. Residents in the area found the wetsuit-clad body along
with double diving tanks, and notified the police at 9:20 am. The corpse
was also wearing black fins and carrying a Czech made sub-machine gun, a
knife, an underwater camera, and other equipment. The 1.57-meter long
underwater propulsion unit was found by a fishing boat approximately 70
meters away. A spokesman from the ROK Ministry of Defense said that,
considering the weapons and equipment, it is almost certain that the man
was an armed DPRK agent. Given the condition of the body and the fact
that there was still air coming out of the tanks, he estimated that the
man had been dead between 24 and 41 hours. Experts said that, because
the propulsion unit was built for 3 to 5 persons, there is a strong
possibility that other agents had infiltrated between Friday morning and
Saturday morning. Equipment found with the body included: 1 submachine
gun, 2 hand grenades, 4 ammunition magazines, 1 bayonet, 1 radio
receiver, 1 radio, 1 double tank scuba set, 1 dive mask, l snorkel, 1
flashlight, 1 shovel, 2 bags of rice powder, 2 bags of chocolate, 1 box
of matches, 1 sewing kit with black thread, 2 emergency radio sets, 1
battery for the radio, 1 blue vest, 1 beige jumper, and 1 set of marine
maps with the ROK towns of Kansong, Joomanjin, Chongdongjin, and
Sansungwoori marked. (Chosun Ilbo, "BODY OF NORTH KOREAN INFILTRATOR
FOUND,' 07/13/98)
4. ROK-DPRK Relations
ROK Defense Minister Chun Yong-taek said Sunday that the situation on the
Korean peninsula was in a state of "agony after victory," as the inter-
Korean duel of ideology continues despite the end of the Cold War. Chun
argued that the best medicine to deal with the DPRK is a continued policy
of engagement. "Through such a policy, the ROK seeks to prevent the
DPRK's sudden collapse and induce a change in its system, thereby the
maintaining peace and stability of the peninsula," Minister Chun said in
his speech to the Statesmen's Forum at the US Center for Strategic and
International Studies (CSIS) in Hawaii. Touching on doubts of the
effectiveness of this policy following the June 22 intrusion by a DPRK
submarine, Chun said, "The new generation's engagement policy will
increase transparency in the North's internal situation and weaken the
position of DPRK hard-liners," which will cause a change in its armed
provocations. The ROK's recent conciliatory approach toward the DPRK is
a major turn from its erstwhile strong anti-DPRK policy. In order for
this policy to bear fruit, Chun suggested that six steps be taken by the
ROK and the US: inducing the DPRK to abandon its will to use military
force; forestalling the DPRK's ambition to develop weapons of mass
destruction; establishing a permanent peace regime; military confidence-
building; developing a contingency plan for famine and the subsequent
refugee situation; and introducing more openness into the DPRK. Turning
to the recent series of developments in the DPRK, Chun summed them up as
"volatile," with no mechanism left to check and balance the military,
which has a growing say in state affairs under Kim Jong-il's military-
first policy. (Korea Times, ROK DEFENSE MINISTER VOWS ON CONTINUED NK
ENGAGEMENT," 07/13/98)
5. Reunion of Separated Families
The ROK Ministry of Unification reported its overall policy planning to
President Kim Dae-jung on Saturday. Minister Kang In-duck was given
permission to pursue all possible means to ensure displaced families were
reunited with their relatives in the DPRK. This allows Kang to seek
alternate routes utilizing private contacts. Kim also ordered Kang to
ask the DPRK for assurances that there will be no more submarine
incursions. (Chosun Ilbo, "REUNION OF DISPLACED FAMILIES POSSIBLE BY
PRIVATE CHANNELS," 07/06/98)
6. ROK-DPRK Investment Forum
The DPRK is reportedly planning to invite 100 ROK Businessmen to an
investment forum to be held in the Rajin-Sonbong free trade area in
September. According to recent reports, the DPRK began selecting ROK
companies to participate in the three-day international forum. Apart
from the forum, the reports said, ROK visitors may be given a briefing on
investment from the DPRK side. However, officials of the ROK Unification
Ministry said that none of the ROK companies have received invitations
from the DPRK. (Korea Herald, "NORTH KOREA TO INVITE 100 SOUTH KOREAN
BUSINESSMEN," 07/07/98)
7. Kim Jong-il's Ascension
DPRK leader Kim Jong-il on Sunday announced that he had picked a
constituency for upcoming parliamentary polls, in a move seen as further
clearing the way for him to become president. In an open letter to the
nation, Kim said he had decided to run for constituency 666 in the
Supreme People's Assembly election, which analysts say will herald his
assumption of the last top office of state. Kim Jong-il, in a letter
read out loud over Pyongyang radio, thanked voters for nominating him for
the July 26 election. Last week, he was nominated as the sole candidate
by every constituency in the country. "I have decided to get myself
registered in constituency No. 666 for the 10th Supreme People's
Assembly," Kim said in the letter, which was broadcast by Pyongyang Radio
and monitored in the ROK. "I will pay back the people's confidence in me
by holding up highly the Great Leader Kim Il-sung's patriotism and
people-loving ideology," Kim Jong-il was quoted as saying in the letter.
(Han Kook Ilbo, "KIM JONG-IL MOVES CLOSER TO NK PRESIDENCY," 07/13/98)
8. ROK-Russia Spying Row
ROK and Russian intelligence officials have started a behind-the-scenes
dialogue aimed us preventing the current diplomatic row from developing
into a major showdown, and the first round of talks appears to have been
fruitful, informed sources said Sunday. ROK Foreign Ministry officials
had initially feared that Russia might take further action, including the
expulsion of a second ROK diplomat based in Moscow, after the ROK
banished a Russian diplomat in retaliation for Russia's expulsion of an
ROK intelligence expert on July 4. However, Russia has not taken any
further retaliatory action, leading to speculation that intelligence
authorities are narrowing their differences and successfully containing
the incident through dialogue. The incident is said to have taken place
because the respective intelligence agencies failed to iron out their
differences on the scope of their agents' activities, which led officials
in both countries to claim publicly that intelligence officers serving
under diplomatic cover of the capitals of the two nations had crossed a
line which was not meant to be violated. (Korea Times, "SEOUL, MOSCOW
TRY TO AVERT CRISIS THRU INTELLIGENCE TALKS," 07/13/98)
Russia's decision to expel an ROK diplomat is regarded as a slap in the
face to the Kim Dae-jung administration, because it has sought to improve
relations with Russia since Kim's inauguration on February 25, officials
in the ROK said. The ROK's top security policymakers are on the
threshold of giving greater recognition to Russia's role in this part of
the world by calling for the creation of a six-nation security
arrangement to include Russia, they said. (Korea Times, "RUSSIA DEALS
BLOW TO KOREA'S EFFORTS TO IMPROVE RELATIONS," 07/07/98)
The Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade (MOFAT) issued a statement
Sunday expressing regret over the Russian government's detention and
expulsion of an ROK diplomat on spy charges. Russian authorities ordered
Cho Sung-woo, a consul at the ROK Embassy in Moscow, to leave Russia
after he was detained on charges of espionage Saturday. According to
reports, the Federal Security Service alleged that Cho met a Russian
contact employed in the ROK Ministry of Foreign Affairs, who provided
confidential information to Korean intelligence. The Russian official is
being investigated by the authorities, but Cho, who has diplomatic
immunity, was released after a formal complaint was filed with the
embassy. This was the first time for either the ROK or Russia to expel a
diplomat on charges of espionage since 1990, when they established formal
diplomatic ties. (Chosun Ilbo, "RUSSIA EXPELS SOUTH KOREAN DIPLOMAT,"
07/06/98)
9. US-ROK Weapons Trade
Defense Minister Chun Yong-taek told reporters Thursday that he and his
US counterpart, William Cohen, have agreed to study a variety of measures
whereby the US would import weapons parts produced in the ROK. Included
in the discussions was possible US approval to allow the ROK to export to
third countries weapons produced with US technical support. Secretary
Cohen's agreement to study these measures came after Chun's request for
US support for the defense industry in the ROK. The two defense heads
also agreed to study methods for the ROK to supply weapons and military
equipment to the US army stationed in the ROK. Cohen further agreed that
he would see whether legal restrictions concerning the supply of US-
licensed weaponry manufactured in the ROK to third countries could be
eased. (Chosun Ilbo, 07/13/98)
1. PRC Food Aid to DPRK
People's Daily ("CHINA'S FOOD AID ARRIVES IN DPRK," Pyongyang, 07/10/98,
A7) reported that 100,000 tons of rice and 20,000 of fertilizer, which
the PRC Government decided to provide free of charge to the DPRK, arrived
in the DPRK on July 6. However, according to the report from the Korean
Central News Agency, the DPRK will still face a shortage of food this
year because of its natural calamities.
2. PRC-US Relations
China Daily ("DIALOGUE CRUCIAL TO RELATIONSHIP," 07/10/98, A4) said that,
despite the great achievements of US President Clinton's PRC visit, there
remain huge differences between the PRC and the US, which will require
both sides to take pragmatic and sober-minded views to overcome. Yuan
Ming, Director of the Institute of International Relations at Beijing
University, said that the PRC has always been against US arms sales to
Taiwan, which is an integral part of China. The renewal of the US-Japan
security alliance has increased the PRC's suspicions that such an
alliance would extend to the Taiwan Straits. Pressures from the US side
on economic issues such as Most Favored Nation status for the PRC and the
PRC's entry into the World Trade Organization have considerable negative
impact on economic and trade cooperation between the two countries.
Noises always rise in the US on such issues as human rights, the trade
imbalance between the two nations, the PRC's arms sales, and religious
freedom in the PRC. It is not easy to resolve these difference in the
short-term, Yuan said. According to her, a dialogue mechanism based on
common interests between the two countries will promote mutual
understanding.
3. PRC-US Military Cooperation
Yan Xuetong, a research fellow with the China Institute of Contemporary
International Relations, published an article in China Daily ("CLOSER
MILITARY TIES BENEFIT CHINA, US," 07/06/98, A4) which said that
achievements in Sino-US military cooperation growing out of US President
Bill Clinton's PRC visit are of great interest and are expected to
improve bilateral ties between the two armies. According to Yan, the
bountiful fruits of bilateral military cooperation brought by Clinton's
visit show that the two countries are once again determined to develop
common security interests while discussing political conflicts. Although
relations between the two armies were greatly promoted by Clinton's
visit, Yan said, bilateral ties still have many restraints. While
cooperation on security issues aims to avoid military confrontation and
conflict on both sides, it is an ambiguous deal and there is no clear-cut
responsibility for both sides to obey. With the end of the Cold War era,
a structural contradiction between the PRC and the US emerged.
Cooperation between the two sides will focus on increasing mutual
military openness and strengthening joint military strategy and
capability. Personnel exchanges between the two sides will play an
important part in such a mutual understanding. These exchanges will
include not only high-ranking officers but also researchers in strategic
studies. Exchanges between lower ranking officers and mutual training
activities will also be promoted. It is possible that the two sides will
hold joint military exercises on a small scale in the near future,
including participation in a non-military on-sea rescue or anti-piracy
exercises. Solid military ties between the PRC and the US will help
promote peace and stability in the Asia-Pacific region, the author
concluded.
4. Cross-Straits Relations
People's Daily ("TAIWAN UN PROPOSAL CONDEMNED," Beijing, 07/11/98, A2)
reported that the PRC Government expressed strong indignation on July 10
over a proposal by Nicaragua and a number of other countries calling for
discussion of Taiwan's "representation" in the UN. PRC Foreign ministry
spokesman Tang Guoqiang said that the move was an overt attempt to create
"two Chinas" or "one China, one Taiwan." Tang called it a serious matter
and an attempt to trample on the UN Charter, as well as interference in
China's internal affairs. He pointed out that the PRC Government's basic
policy on the Taiwan issue is "peaceful reunification and 'one country,
two systems'," which was first tried in Hong Kong from July 1, 1997. The
PRC firmly believes that the Taiwan issue will be properly solved
eventually in accordance with the same policy. National reunification is
the basic guarantee of the Taiwan people's interests and they can in this
way share the motherland's dignity and honor in the world, the official
added.
According to China Daily ("STRAITS EXCHANGES DISCUSSED," 07/09/98, A1), a
top negotiator said on July 12 that the scheduled visit of Koo Chen-fu,
chairman of the Taipei-based Straits Exchange Foundation (SEF), to the
mainland this autumn will be of little political significance unless
Taiwan makes a positive response to the mainland's proposals. SEF and
its mainland counterpart, the Association for Relations Across the Taiwan
Straits (ARATS) reached consensus late last month on inviting Koo to
visit the mainland in mid-September or mid-October. ARATS suggested that
leaders of the two organizations could exchange views on holding
procedural talks for cross-Straits political negotiations, ARATS Vice-
President Tang Shubei said. However, SEF has not given a clear reaction
to the suggestion so far, Tang said on July 8. Tang said that cross-
Straits issues should be discussed and solved by the Chinese themselves;
however, for historical reasons, the US was involved in the issue. US
President Bill Clinton said in public during his state visit to the PRC
that the US will strictly implement the three PRC-US joint communiques
and observe a "three noes" policy.
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