|
Northeast Asia Peace and Security Network DAILY REPORT For Wednesday, July 15, 1998, from Berkeley, California, USA |
1. DPRK Nuclear Freeze
The New York Times (Philip Shenon, "NORTH KOREA SAID TO BLOCK INSPECTION
OF NUCLEAR SITES," Washington, 07/15/98) reported that a report by the US
Congress General Accounting Office said that the DPRK is refusing to
allow international inspectors full access to its nuclear sites.
According to the report, the DPRK has refused repeated requests for
information about the whereabouts of nuclear components that it had
planned to install in the two nuclear reactors that were shut down under
the 1994 Geneva agreement. It has also refused to allow the
International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to install monitoring devices
on tanks used to hold nuclear waste. The report warned that the DPRK may
have tampered with the tanks since the agreement and secretly removed
some of the nuclear waste in an effort to hide evidence of earlier
diversions of plutonium from the reactors. David Albright, president of
the Institute for Science and International Security, stated, "The danger
is that the North Koreans already have nuclear weapons on the shelf."
Albright argued that, when the 1994 agreement was being negotiated, "not
enough thought was put into verification, and that's why these kinds of
problems have developed. It's well known among those who follow this
issue that the North Koreans have not been cooperating as much as they
should." Senator Frank Murkowski, R-Alaska, who requested the report in
his role as chairman of the Senate Energy and Natural Resources
Committee, said that the new study showed that the Geneva accord was
"folly." He warned, "we may never know how much bomb-grade plutonium the
North Koreans have diverted to their weapons program." An anonymous
State Department official responded, "Yes, there have been troubles with
the inspection program. But from our standpoint, what is crucial is that
the North Korean nuclear program is frozen." A spokeswoman for the IAEA
said that the agency had no immediate comment since it had not yet seen
the report.
2. Heavy Oil Deliveries to DPRK
The Associated Press (Laura Myers, "N. KOREA OIL FREEZE COSTS U.S.,"
Washington, 07/15/98) reported that Clinton administration officials told
a Senate Foreign Relations subcommittee on Tuesday that providing heavy
fuel oil to the DPRK will probably cost the US US$50 million a year,
double the amount expected. Rust Deming, deputy assistant secretary of
state for East Asia, stated, "Frankly, we were overly optimistic about
our ability to attract funds from other countries and we have to be much
more realistic now. We recognize that we are going to have to do more
ourselves." He added, however, that US$50 million a year "is a small
price to pay to reinforce peace on the Korean Peninsula and to strengthen
the global non-proliferation regime." Deming warned that the Korean
Peninsula Energy Development Organization does not have the money to buy
the remaining 284,000 metric tons of heavy fuel oil due to be delivered
to the DPRK by mid-October. Senator John Kerry, D-Mass, said that for
the Clinton administration "to allow the agreement to languish in this
way is the height of irresponsibility." Senator Craig Thomas, R-Wyo.,
chairman of the East Asia subcommittee, said that he was concerned about
indications that the DPRK might be looking for an excuse to back out of
the 1994 agreement. He stated, "We also have to make sure that we don't
allow North Korea to find reasons not to comply."
3. DPRK Infiltrators
United Press International ("SEOUL TO DEMAND APOLOGY FROM N.KOREA,"
Seoul, 07/14/98) and Reuters ("S.KOREA DEMANDS APOLOGY FROM NORTH ON
INCURSIONS," Seoul, 07/15/98) reported that ROK Unification Minister Kang
In-duk announced that the ROK plans to demand a formal apology from the
DPRK for the recent infiltrations. Kang stated, "Advancement on projects
such as cattle aid will be carried out only when the North apologizes for
dispatching armed spy agents into South Korea." The ROK National
Security Council said in a letter of resolution, "North Korea should
admit that the latest provocations were a breach of the Joint Armistice
Agreement and the South-North Basic Agreement." The letter added, "The
North has to apologize for the incursions, punish those involved and
promise that it will never happen again." It said that the ROK
government would seek cooperation from allied countries to realize its
demands. Meanwhile, the DPRK on Tuesday denied that the body found on an
ROK beach was one of its agents.
Reuters (Bill Tarrant, "SPY FURORE CLOUDS S.KOREA KIM'S SUNSHINE POLICY,"
Seoul, 07/14/98) reported that some analysts believe that the latest DPRK
infiltrations may be an attempt by certain elements in the DPRK to
undermine ROK President Kim Dae-jung's "sunshine policy." An unnamed top
ROK intelligence official said that the DPRK military elite sees a thaw
in relations with the ROK as a long-term threat to its privileged
position. However, Park Young-ho of the Korea Institute of National
Unification stated, "I don't think this was an intentional operation on
the part of North Korea to scuttle the sunshine policy. I think the two
intrusions were discovered accidentally." The ROK Unification Ministry
has counted around 20 incidents since 1968 in which teams of infiltrators
have been discovered. Intelligence officials assume that such incidents
happen frequently and that many more infiltration teams successfully
complete their missions. An unnamed military analyst in Seoul stated,
"Satellites are great, electronic gizmos are great, but the best
intelligence asset is the man on the ground." Some officials in the ROK
Defense Ministry and the Agency for National Security Planning have
linked the infiltrations to Kim Jong-il's expected accession to the DPRK
presidency. One unnamed ROK intelligence official stated, "There are
five or six bodies in North Korea that do covert activities. They don't
communicate very well with each other and they may all be competing to
show how bold and brave they are to Kim Jong-il before he becomes
president."
4. ROK Labor Unrest
The Associated Press (Kyong-Hwa Seok, "MORE JOIN SOUTH KOREA STRIKE,"
Seoul, 07/15/98) reported that about 55,000 workers from five banks, the
national telephone carrier, and other state-run companies joined a
nationwide strike in the ROK on Wednesday to protest layoffs. Organizers
said that the new strikers brought to about 110,000 the number of workers
participating in the strike. However, the ROK Labor Ministry said that
fewer than 60,000 workers had joined the strike, and said many union
members disobeyed their leaders and did not take part. Earlier
Wednesday, police said they had obtained warrants for the arrest of about
four dozen union leaders. All the strikers except 26,000 workers from
Hyundai Motors Co. were scheduled to return to work Friday. The Hyundai
strike was indefinite.
5. Taiwan Bid for UN Membership
The Associated Press ("ALLIES REQUEST U.N. SEAT FOR TAIWAN," United
Nations, 07/14/98) reported that eleven countries led by Nicaragua have
asked that the status of Taiwan in the UN be placed on the agenda of the
next General Assembly session in September. Five previous such requests
have been turned down.
6. US-PRC Military Cooperation
The Associated Press ("CHINA, US SEEK TO AVOID SEA FIGHTS," Beijing,
07/15/98) reported that senior PRC and US military officers ended two
days of discussions Wednesday on how to avoid accidental armed conflict
between the two navies. The talks were the first of planned annual
consultations on maritime safety. The decision to hold the talks grew
out of the 1996 confrontation between US and PRC naval forces in the
Taiwan Straits. A spokesman for the US Embassy in Beijing said that the
officers at the meeting decided to set up a working group on navigational
safety that is supposed to meet twice before next year's consultations.
7. Alleged Technology Transfer to PRC
The Associated Press ("CHINA DENIES LOTT'S ALLEGATIONS," Beijing,
07/15/98) reported that PRC Foreign Ministry spokesman Tang Guoqiang
denied allegations from US Senate Majority Leader Trent Lott that the PRC
used US satellite technology to enhance its military capabilities. Tang
stated, "We have reiterated many times that the Chinese side would not
and could not acquire American military technology in the course of
supplying launching services for U.S. satellites." Tang argued that "a
few people in America, in disregarding the facts, make stories out of
nothing, creating rumors and trouble. The aim is to obstruct and damage
the improvement and development of China-U.S. relations."
US State Department Spokesman James Rubin ("STATE DEPARTMENT NOON
BRIEFING, 14 July 1998," Washington, USIA Transcript, 07/14/98) said that
having a policy which allows for the launching of US satellites in the
PRC is in the US national interest. Rubin argued that such a policy
promotes US competitiveness, promotes openness in the PRC, furthers the
US engagement policy, and encourages the PRC to improve its non-
proliferation practices. He added, "we do not believe that this policy
has contributed to China's ability to launch ballistic missiles armed
with nuclear weapons; that capability was there before." Rubin stated,
"the United States has not authorized the providing of China with
technology useful in upgrading its ballistic missiles; nor, to my
knowledge, is there evidence that the US actually provided China with
technology for the delivery of multiple satellites." He added that
"there are many technical steps" needed to turn a multiple satellite
delivery system into a multiple warhead ballistic missile. He said, "The
objectives of a MIRV capability and a satellite dispenser capability are
significantly different. The release of a satellite in orbit does not
require much accuracy and allows for a wide margin of error. A MIRV
capability requires extreme accuracy for re-entry to ensure the warhead
hits its target."
8. PRC-Russian Relations
The Associated Press ("RUSSIA PREMIER MAKES BEIJING VISIT," Beijing,
07/14/98) reported that Russian Prime Minister Sergei Kiriyenko on
Tuesday made a five-hour stopover in Beijing on his way back from Japan
to meet PRC Premier Zhu Rongji and President Jiang Zemin. Evgueni
Verlin, a Russian Embassy spokesman, said that the meetings were partly
to prepare for Jiang's visit to Russia in September. He added that
Kiriyenko was on "a working visit to discuss problems with trade and to
search for breakthroughs, especially in the field of energy." Verlin
said that Kiriyenko and Zhu were to discuss projects to pipe gas from
eastern Siberia and to build a nuclear power plant in the eastern PRC.
9. Theater Missile Defense
The Associated Press (Laura Myers, "GAO: MISSILE DEFENSE RUNNING LATE,"
Washington, 07/15/98) reported that a US Congress General Accounting
Office report said that the program to develop a national missile defense
(NMD) system is unlikely to be completed in 2000 as scheduled. The
report stated, "Also, any decision in fiscal year 2000 to deploy an NMD
system by 2003 would involve high technical risk because the associated
compressed schedule will permit only limited testing of the system." US
Senator Carl Levin, D-Mich., said in a statement released Wednesday,
"This report provides compelling evidence that we need to give the NMD
program a chance to mature and prove itself rather than pile on
deployment pressures that are more likely to lead to failure."
1. DPRK Infiltrators
ROK military authorities on Wednesday were still seeking the whereabouts
of two DPRK agents who are believed to have come ashore on Tonghae beach,
after the third consecutive day of search operations turned up nothing
Tuesday. ROK intelligence specialists assume that there are two
possibilities if the agents are still alive: either they returned safely
to a "mother boat" that had awaited them, or they have infiltrated deep
enough to escape from the areas under search. The officials said that
the second possibility is more plausible than the first. First of all,
they pointed out that the dead agent did not drown but died of a heart
attack and that his death had likely occurred within one kilometer from
the shoreline. If the agent had a heart attack right off the mother
boat, it would be unlikely that his colleagues had hurried off, leaving
behind the body that would wash ashore and alert the enemy. Also making
this implausible is the fact that he had a heart attack sometime around
11 p.m. Saturday, leaving ample time to dispose of the body in order to
leave no traces. Accordingly, it is speculated that the agent met his
death close to the shore and his colleagues chose to go ahead and land,
not being able to decide what to do with the body. This scenario has its
own flaws, one being that nothing was found to indicate their landing
despite intense search operations. The intelligence specialists discount
the possibility that the dead agent was on his way alone to join the
mother boat after dropping off his colleagues, citing the motorized
underwater launch that needs at least three persons to operate. (Korea
Times, "N. KOREAN AGENTS LIKELY ESCAPED SEARCH AREAS," 07/15/98)
The DPRK's Committee for Peaceful Fatherland Reunification announced
Tuesday that the dead armed diver found on the east coast of the ROK had
no connection with the DPRK whatever. A spokesman for the committee said
that the incident was part of an ultra-right conservative scheme hatched
by the ROK to heighten tensions between the DPRK and the ROK. The ROK
Ministry of Unification commented that it was deplorable for the DPRK to
try and shift the blame onto the ROK and called for an apology and
guarantee of non-recurrence from the DPRK. (Chosun Ilbo, "NK DENIES
INFILTRATION," 07/15/98)
2. US Sanctions Against DPRK
The latest infiltration of armed DPRK agents into the ROK could scuttle
the US plan to ease sanctions on the DPRK, an ROK official said Tuesday.
The ROK and the US are planning to hold talks on the issue in the near
future. Kwon Jong-rak, director general for North American affairs at
the Foreign Affairs and Trade Ministry, said that in the wake of the
incident, "the talks will start with a basic question. Do we really have
to ease or lift the sanctions on the DPRK?" His remarks are taken as a
step back from the ROK's recent policy of engaging the DPRK, which
included an ROK request for the US to ease sanctions on the DPRK. Kwon
said that the ROK-US talks would focus on whether or not to ease or lift
the embargo rather than on how and when. The working-level talks, which
had been scheduled for this week, were postponed for a few weeks because
the US Senate has delayed ratifying the appointment of Charles Kartman,
who will lead the US delegation to the talks, as a special envoy on
Korean affairs. (Korea Herald, "LATEST INFILTRATION MAY SCUTTLE US PLAN
TO EASE NORTH KOREA SANCTIONS," 07/15/98)
3. Alleged DPRK Abduction Plot
The mission of a team of DPRK commandos may have been to try and
assassinate or abduct DPRK defector Hwang Jang-yop, an informed military
intelligence source in Seoul said Tuesday. The source, who requested
anonymity, told the Korea Herald that ROK police had already stepped up
security for Hwang and some other DPRK defectors. The military source
said that some hawkish military and intelligence figures in the DPRK have
threatened to take Hwang back to Pyongyang or assassinate him for
slandering DPRK leader Kim Jong-il. The time period for bringing Hwang
back, he said, would be before September 9, the date of the DPRK's 50th
anniversary. (Korea Herald, "NORTH KOREAN AGENT'S POSSIBLE MISSION: KILL
OR ABDUCT HWANG JANG-YOP," 07/15/98)
The NAPSNet Daily Report aims to serve as a forum for dialogue
and exchange among peace and security specialists.
Conventions for readers and a list of acronyms and
abbreviations are available to all recipients.
For descriptions of the world wide web sites used to gather
information for this report, or for more information on web
sites with related information, see the collection of
other NAPSNet resources.
Produced by the Nautilus Institute for Security and Sustainable Development in partnership with:
Wade L. Huntley: napsnet@nautilus.org
Timothy L. Savage: napsnet@nautilus.org
Choi Chung-moon: cily@star.elim.co.kr
Hiroyasu Akutsu: akutsu@glocomnet.or.jp
Peter Razvin: icipu@glas.apc.org
Chunsi Wu: dlshen@fudan.ac.cn
Dingli Shen: dlshen@fudan.ac.cn
Return to the Top of this Daily Report
[Next Item][Contents]
[Prev. Item][Next Item][Contents]
[Prev. Item][Next Item][Contents]
[Prev. Item][Next Item][Contents]
[Prev. Item][Next Item][Contents]
[Prev. Item][Next Item][Contents]
[Prev. Item][Next Item][Contents]
[Prev. Item][Next Item][Contents]
[Prev. Item][Next Item][Contents]
[Prev. Item][Next Item][Contents]
[Prev. Item][Next Item][Contents]
[Prev. Item][Contents][Credits]
We invite you to reply to today's report, and we welcome
commentary or papers for distribution to the network.
The Center for Global Communications, Tokyo, Japan
Center for American Studies,
Fudan University, Shanghai, People's Republic of China
Berkeley, California, United States
Berkeley, California, United States
Seoul, Republic of Korea
Tokyo, Japan
Moscow, Russian Federation
Shanghai, People's Republic of China
Shanghai, People's Republic of China