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Northeast Asia Peace and Security Network DAILY REPORT For Friday, July 24, 1998, from Berkeley, California, USA |
1. Light-Water Reactor Project
United Press International ("AUSTRALIA TO CONTRIBUTE $1.2M TO KEDO,"
Seoul, 07/24/98) reported that Australian Foreign Minister Alexander
Downer said in a statement released Friday that the Australian government
would contribute US$1.2 million to the Korean Peninsula Energy
Development Organization (KEDO). Downer stated, "The government regards
the Korean Peninsula as a potential major security flashpoint and views
KEDO as making a valuable contribution to maintaining stability on the
peninsula and in Northeast Asia more generally." He added, "Support for
KEDO is also consistent with Australia's strong commitment to global
nuclear non-proliferation." The Australian government has provided
US$6.6 million to the KEDO heavy fuel oil program since June 1995.
2. DPRK Missile Sales to Iran
The New York Times (Steven Erlanger, "WASHINGTON CASTS WARY EYE AT
MISSILE TEST," Washington, 07/24/98) and the Washington Post (Walter
Pincus, "IRAN MAY SOON GAIN MISSILE CAPABILITY," 07/24/98, A28) reported
that US officials said that Iran had not chosen to buy and deploy a fleet
of DPRK Rodong missiles. They said that, instead, Iran is trying to
develop its own Shahab-3 medium-range ballistic missile based on the
Rodong. According to administration and intelligence sources, the
decision on whether to buy the completed missile system from the DPRK or
build its own version will determine whether Iran is capable of deploying
the Shahab-3 within one or two years. Officials also said that missile
exports are the DPRK's largest source of hard currency. US officials
said Thursday that it was conceivable that a deal could still be made
with the DPRK to lift US sanctions in return for a halt in missile
exports.
US State Department Spokesman James Rubin ("STATE DEPARTMENT NOON
BRIEFING, JULY 23, 1998," USIA Transcript, 07/23/98) said that, while
Iranian acquisition of missile technology from Russian firms may have had
some affect on its missile program, the missile that Iran recently tested
was largely derived from DPRK technology. Rubin stated, "Iran for many
years has been working with North Korea to put in place an indigenous
Scud production capability."
Defense Department Spokesman Kenneth Bacon ("PENTAGON REGULAR BRIEFING,
THURSDAY, JULY 23, 1998," USIA Transcript, 07/23/98) said that the DPRK's
missile sales help the DPRK to test the effectiveness of its weapons.
Bacon stated, "Obviously the North Koreans, I assume, when other
countries such as Iran test missiles that have been largely developed in
North Korea, learn more information about their own weaponry. So to a
certain extent every time a Nodong variant is tested elsewhere, I assume
the North Koreans learn a little bit more about their own systems that
way."
3. Remains of US Soldiers from Korean War
The Associated Press (Sang-Hun Choe, "NORTH KOREA RETURNS U.S. REMAINS,"
Panmunjom, 07/24/98), United Press International ("N KOREA RETURNS US
SOLDIERS REMAINS," Seoul, 07/24/98) and Reuters ("N. KOREA TRANSFERS WAR
REMAINS TO U.N. COMMAND," Panmunjom, 07/24/98) reported that the DPRK on
Friday returned three sets of skeletal remains believed to be those of US
soldiers killed in the Korean War. US military officials said that the
remains were believed to be those of soldiers of the 24th Infantry
Regiment who died during battles in 1952. US Defense Department
spokesman Alan Liotta stated, "Their repatriation is an example of the
U.S. government's efforts to find and bring home its fallen soldiers,
going wherever they are believed to be lying." The DPRK has transferred
five sets of remains, including those handed over on Friday, to the UN
Command so far this year.
4. Taiwan Nuclear Waste Disposal
Reuters ("CHINA OPPOSES TAIWAN'S PLANS FOR NUCLEAR WASTE DISPOSAL,"
Beijing, 07/24/98) reported that the Xinhua news agency said that PRC
environmental officials are opposed to Taiwan's plans to dump nuclear
waste on Wuchiu island off southeastern Fujian province. Wuchiu is a
Taiwan defense post 9 miles from the PRC. Xinhua quoted Yang Mingyi,
director of Fujian's Environmental Protection Bureau, as saying that the
people of Fujian "voiced great concern and exhibited strong indignation
over the proposed plan." He added, "Taiwan authorities will encounter
strong opposition from people on both sides of the straits if they
persist." The state-run Taiwan Power Company (Taipower) in February
offered T$3.15 billion (US$91.6 million) to a township on the islet of
Hsiao Chiu, part of Wuchiu, in exchange for a new dump site. A Taipower
spokeswoman said that the company had begun an environmental evaluation
of the island in June, but could not make a final decision until after
the evaluation, which would take at least a year and a half.
5. Japanese Prime Minister
Reuters (Brian Williams, "OBUCHI IN LINE TO BECOME JAPANESE LEADER,"
Tokyo, 07/24/98), the Washington Post (Kevin Sullivan, "JAPANESE LEAD
PARTY SELECTS A NEW CHIEF, Tokyo, 07/24/98, A01) and the Washington Times
(Willis Witter, "OBUCHI LOOKS LIKELY TO BE JAPAN'S LEADER," Tokyo,
07/24/98) reported that Japanese Foreign Minister Keizo Obuchi was
elected leader of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party Friday. The
election puts Obuchi in line to become prime minister when the Diet votes
to fill that office on July 30.
6. US-Pakistan Nuclear Talks
The Associated Press (Kathy Gannon, "U.S., PAKISTAN END NUCLEAR TALKS,"
Islamabad, 07/23/98) reported that Pakistan and the US finished two days
of nuclear weapons talks on Thursday with a promise to meet again next
month in Washington. US Deputy Secretary of State Strobe Talbott
declined to elaborate on the discussions. He did confirm that the
question of Pakistan's adherence to the Comprehensive Test Ban treaty
came up in talks.
7. Indian Nuclear Deployment
The Associated Press (Kathy Gannon, "U.S., PAKISTAN END NUCLEAR TALKS,"
Islamabad, 07/23/98) reported that opposition legislators on Thursday
accused Indian Defense Minister George Fernandes of bowing to Western
pressure by refusing to reveal whether the army would develop and deploy
nuclear weapons. Fernandes said that it would be unwise to make a
statement about the nation's nuclear plans. Meanwhile, Jane's Defense
Weekly quoted official sources as saying Wednesday that India plans to
launch its first nuclear-powered submarine about 2006 or 2007. It said
that the sub would be able to fire nuclear-armed cruise missiles.
8. US-Russian Summit
The Associated Press (Maura Reynolds, "GORE DRAWS UP RUSSIA SUMMIT
PLANS," Moscow, 07/24/98) reported that Vice President Al Gore and
Russian Prime Minister Sergei Kiriyenko drew up plans today for a summit
meeting between US President Bill Clinton and Russian leader Boris
Yeltsin at the end of August or early September. Gore and Kiriyenko also
discussed the spread of Russian missile technology to Iran and Russian
ratification of the START II arms reduction treaty. The two sides signed
an agreement that would provide US funding for a new plant to reprocess
plutonium from Russian nuclear weapons into fuel for power plants.
9. Russian Far East
Reuters (Robert Eksuzyan, "GOVERNOR CONSIDERS TAKING CONTROL OF SOME OF
RUSSIA'S MISSILES," Moscow, 07/24/98) and the Associated Press ("RUSSIA'S
LEBED HINTS AT TAKING OVER MISSILE BASE," Moscow, 07/24/98) reported that
Alexander Lebed said in a letter to the Russian government that he might
consider taking over an army missile base in his Krasnoyarsk region if
the federal government did not pay the soldiers. Lebed wrote, "I've
seriously thought about whether we shouldn't take the unit under the
territory's jurisdiction." He added, "We, the people of Krasnoyarsk, are
not yet a rich people. But in exchange for the status of a nuclear
territory, we will, if you like, feed the unit, becoming along with India
and Pakistan a headache for the world community." Lebed said that air
defenses in the east along the PRC frontier were in a woeful state. He
stated, "All the facts taken together lead to the sad conclusion that for
the Russian government, there is no land beyond the Urals."
1. Regional Security Forum
The ROK will ask for Russia's assistance in persuading the DPRK to join a
regional security forum, the Northeast Asian Cooperation Dialogue
(NEACD), ROK officials said Thursday. ROK Foreign Minister Park Chung-
soo will make the request when he holds talks with his Russian
counterpart, Evgeny Primakov, in Manila on Saturday. Park will fly to
the Philippine capital Friday to attend the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF), a
political and security dialogue body for Southeast Asia, and the ARF
Post-Ministerial Conference (PMC). ROK officials said that Park would
ask Primakov for Russia's help in efforts to induce the DPRK to join the
NEACD. The NEACD is a private security forum involving scholars from the
US, Russia, the PRC, Japan, and the ROK that aims to promote security in
Northeast Asia. The ROK wants to get the DPRK into the NEACD in the
belief that such a regional forum would encourage the DPRK to help defuse
tension and establish peace and stability in the region. (Korea Herald,
"SEOUL TO ASK MOSCOW TO ENGAGE NORTH KOREA; SEEKS RUSSIA'S ROLE IN
INDUCING PYONGYANG TO ATTEND NEACD," 07/25/98)
2. Kim Jong-il's Ascension
DPRK leader Kim Jong-il may become state president at a People's Assembly
meeting to be held after the weekend elections, a Japanese national
television network said Wednesday. Japan Broadcasting Corp. (NHK) showed
footage from the DPRK's official broadcast announcing the Supreme
People's Assembly elections on Sunday. The DPRK broadcast urged people
to "welcome the elections with a high political enthusiasm" while
reporting that people were holding rallies to call on Kim to run in their
constituency, NHK said. "The DPRK regime's stressing the importance of
the vote and the importance of Kim Jong-il as their leader is believed to
be a move to elect him as state president at a People's Assembly meeting
after the elections," it said. (Korea Times, "KIM JONG-IL MAY BECOME
NK'S PRESIDENT SOON," 07/24/98)
3. DPRK Tourism Project
The Hyundai group is planning to accept applications for its tour of
Mount Kumkang in the DPRK from around August 15, according to its master
plan reported in the Chosun Ilbo Friday. Hyundai has decided to go ahead
with its original plan, which calls for the departure of the first batch
of tourists on September 25. The plan expects that up to 65 percent of
the anticipated 2,200 tourists a week will be people who were born in the
DPRK but displaced during the Korean War. The group said that three
different packages will be available, and the cost for each of the five-
day trips will be set below US$1,000 per person. (Chosun Ilbo, "HYUNDAI
TO ACCEPT NK TOUR APPLICATIONS," 07/24/98)
1. Japanese Prime Minister
The Yomiuri Shimbun ("LIBERAL DEMOCRATIC PARTY (LDP) ELECTS NEW
PRESIDENT," 07/24/98) reported that the LDP on July 24 elected sixty-one-
year old Keizo Obuchi as the new party president, after he won 225 out of
420 votes in the first round of voting. Obuchi will soon begin forming
the new LDP executive team and the new cabinet. The report pointed out
that, given the need for well-tied but broadly-based staff to deal with
the problems ahead, Obuchi is expected to form the LDP executive team and
the cabinet from the other factions rather than from his own faction.
The report also pointed out that, especially given that the financial
issue is urgent, some influential member is likely to become Financial
Minister. Obuchi also intends to cooperate with opposition parties, but
some parties are already cautious about cooperation with the LDP because
of its declining public support. The report concluded that this suggests
a rough road ahead for Japanese politics.
2. US-Japan Defense Guidelines
The Daily Yomiuri (Akinori Uchida, "US WORRIED ABOUT CHANGES IN DEFENSE
GUIDELINE BILLS," Washington, 07/24/98) reported that Kurt Campbell, US
deputy assistant secretary of defense for East Asian and Pacific affairs,
in an interview with the Yomiuri Shimbun on July 22, expressed concern
that the Liberal Democratic Party's (LDP) setback in the Upper House
election would affect upcoming deliberations on two bills to accommodate
the New Guidelines for Japan-US Defense Cooperation. The report cited
Campbell as saying, "One thing we'd like to avoid is the government of
Japan making any substantial changes to the defense guidelines process in
order to appease (opposition) Diet members." The report also said that
although Campbell did not specify what amendments the US would object to,
he said that changes could hamper the operations of both the Japanese
Self-Defense Forces and the US military. The report pointed out that it
was the first time that a high-ranking US official has voiced concern
about how the election result could affect the fate of the defense bills,
which the Diet will likely resume debate on during an extraordinary
session slated for next Thursday. Campbell also expressed his hope that
both countries would continue to cooperate on bilateral technical
research on the US-initiated Theater Missile Defense (TMD) program. As
for the US-PRC nuclear detargeting proposals, he said, "Right now there
is a unilateral commitment without inspections. This is the first step
in a long confidence-building process." In response to the question of
whether PRC nuclear missiles were aimed at US bases in Japan, he said,
"The PRC has stated in the past that they do not target non-nuclear
countries. The US commitment to Japan under the nuclear umbrella will
remain unchanged."
3. Russia's Sale of Carrier to India
The Asahi Shimbun (Yasuo Naito, "INDIA PURCHASES CARRIER FROM RUSSIA:
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE OF INDIAN NAVAL POWER MAY PROVOKE PRC," Moscow,
07/24/98) reported that, according to Russia's Interfax News Agency, the
Commander of the Russian Northern Fleet revealed on July 23 that Russia
has entered the final phase of negotiations with India for the sale of an
aircraft carrier. The report said that the carrier is named "Admiral
Gorsicov," although it was formerly called "Baku." The building of the
carrier began in 1978. The carrier entered the Russian navy in 1987 and
is capable of carrying sixteen YAK 38 fighter planes, nineteen anti-
submarine helicopters, three KA 25 helicopters, six of the most advanced
anti-battleship missiles, and four sea-to-air missiles. According to a
Russian reformist daily paper, the Indian navy will replace the current
helicopter carrier with Gorsicov. The Russian Department of Defense also
revealed that the sale price will amount to more than US$2 billion, which
alone represents 80 percent of India's defense budget last year. The
report pointed out that the sale may further worsen India-Pakistan
relations, which have been already damaged due to the two countries'
nuclear tests. It also said that the sale seems to aim to deter the PRC,
and may rub the PRC the wrong way.
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