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Northeast Asia Peace and Security Network DAILY REPORT For Thursday, July 30, 1998, from Berkeley, California, USA |
1. ROK Economy
Dow Jones Newswires ("SOUTH KOREA'S GDP TO DROP IN 1998, BUT REBOUND IN
1999, REPORT FINDS," Seoul, 07/30/98) reported that the Organization for
Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) on Thursday said in its
annual report "OECD Economic Surveys" that it expects the ROK's gross
domestic product to contract by 4.7 percent in 1998 before resuming
growth of 2.5 percent in 1999. Inflation is expected to rise by 9
percent this year, and the current-account surplus is expected to stand
at US$35 billion at the end of 1998. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate is
expected to grow at a rate of 8 percent this year.
2. PRC Army-Run Businesses
The Wall Street Journal (Ian Johnson, "ENDING PLA BUSINESS TIES IS A TALL
ORDER FOR CHINA," Beijing, 07/30/98) reported that many analysts have
said that successfully separating the PRC's People's Liberation Army
(PLA) from its roughly 20,000 businesses would take several years. Hu
Angang, a researcher with the Chinese Academy of Sciences, said that
central-government tax revenues are insufficient to make up the loss of
revenue that the PLA would face by selling off its businesses. Hu
stated, "Tax collecting is more efficient, but it's still not enough to
replace all the profits generated by the military-related industries."
3. Election of Japanese Prime Minister
The Associated Press (Joji Sakurai, "JAPAN DECLARES OBUCHI PREMIER,"
Tokyo, 07/30/98) reported that the Japanese Diet declared ruling Liberal
Democratic Party (LDP) candidate Keizo Obuchi Prime Minister Thursday.
Obuchi won the election in the lower house with 268 votes of 497 ballots,
but lost to opposition leader Naoto Kan, who got 142 of 245 votes, in the
upper house. Since the lower house has the power to overrule the upper
house, Obuchi was declared the winner after the two chambers failed to
compromise.
4. Indian-Pakistani Summit Meeting
The New York Times (John F. Burns, "INDIA AND PAKISTAN HOLD FIRST MEETING
SINCE A-TESTS," Colombo, 07/30/98) and the Associated Press ("INDIA,
PAKISTAN END STANDOFF, KASHMIR STILL SEEN CRUX," Colombo, 07/30/98)
reported that Indian Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee and Pakistan
Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif met Wednesday on the sidelines of an annual
summit by seven South Asian nations for the first time since the two
nations conducted underground nuclear tests in May. The two said
afterwards that their foreign secretaries would meet on Thursday and
Friday to discuss how to revive talks on the disputed province of
Kashmir. Sharif stated, "I emphasized the need for a quick solution to
the core issue of Kashmir. Unless we address this issue effectively and
meaningfully we will not be able to make any progress on any other
issue."
5. Fissile Material Cutoff Treaty
The Associated Press ("PAKISTAN BACKS TALKS TO BAN OUTPUT OF NUCLEAR ARMS
MATERIAL," Geneva, 07/30/98) reported that Pakistani Ambassador Munir
Akram told the Conference on Disarmament Thursday that Pakistan supports
immediately starting negotiations for a treaty to ban the production of
material used to make nuclear weapons. He added, however, that his
government wants negotiations to deal with India's larger stockpile of
plutonium and highly enriched uranium. Akram acknowledged that the
proposed treaty has been a main topic between the US and Pakistani
governments.
6. US Ratification of CTBT
The United States Information Agency (Ralph Dannheisser, "BIDEN, SPECTER
URGE QUICK APPROVAL OF CTBT; CITE WIDE SUPPORT," Washington, 07/29/98)
reported that US Senators Arlen Specter, R-Penn., and Joseph Biden, D-
Del., on Wednesday called for swift action to ratify the Comprehensive
Test Ban Treaty (CTBT). Biden stated, "if we had a hearing and had a
vote, we would win overwhelmingly." Accordingly, he said, it is "not at
all surprising" that treaty opponents are blocking consideration. Biden
argued that the US, given its technological edge, is in the best position
of any country in the world to do without further testing. He warned
that if the US does not ratify the treaty, countries like Japan, the ROK,
and Brazil will undertake serious reviews of their own non-nuclear status
within the next few years. Specter warned that "failure by the United
States Senate to ratify the treaty may give rise to an inference that the
United States government is not serious about banning nuclear testing and
may, in effect, encourage or at least not discourage such testing."
Specter and Biden have sponsored a nonbinding "Sense of the Senate"
resolution that would call on Jesse Helms, R-NC, and the Senate Foreign
Relations Committee to hold hearings on the issue "as expeditiously as
possible." Representatives of two polling firms released data showing
that about three-fourths of the US public supports approval of the
treaty, with support strong in all regions of the country and among
members of both parties. Mark Mellman, one of the pollsters, called the
results "very clear, very consistent, very overwhelming." He added that
it is "very rare that you see this level of consensus on any issue,"
particularly in the field of foreign policy. Pollster Michael Dabadie of
Wirthlin Worldwide similarly commented, "What is striking about the
results ... is the overwhelming nature of support for this treaty.
Indeed, far from being a partisan issue, support for a nuclear test ban
treaty comes from all sides of the political and ideological spectrum."
However, Senate Majority Leader Trent Lott, R-Miss., said that there is
no chance that the Senate will consider the CTBT this year.
1. ROK-Russia Spying Row
The spy controversy between Russia and the ROK over intelligence agents
with diplomatic clearance is largely considered to be over, although a
few issues need to be cleared. At the foreign ministers' meeting,
Russian Foreign Minister Yevgeny Primakov repeatedly demanded the
readmittance of the expelled Russian diplomat Oleg Abramkin, to which the
ROK responded that he could come to the ROK as a civilian to pack his
luggage. Both sides agreed that the incident was an intelligence matter
that would be decided by the respective organizations. However, Primakov
announced after the second meeting that an agreement had been reached on
the readmittance of Abramkin to the ROK and an apology by the ROK side.
To this the ROK Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade said that the issue
was being decided by the two intelligence agencies. ROK Foreign Affairs
and Trade Minister Park Jong-soo denied that there had been a behind-the-
scenes agreement but refused to deny Primakov's remarks. The
intelligence authorities of both the ROK and Russia will discuss the
matter, but Abramkin's return would appear to be a fait accompli. The
general public looked on the entire affair as a monumental diplomatic
disgrace, and a solution may hinge on whether or not Russia makes a
reciprocal gesture. (Chosun Ilbo, "AFTERMATH OF DIPLOMATIC DISPUTE,"
07/30/98)
2. Light-Water Reactor Project
The Korean Energy Development Organization (KEDO) announced Wednesday
that, at a meeting held Monday and Tuesday, the board of executive
directors confirmed the newly revised total construction cost of the
light-water reactor (LWR) to be provided to the DPRK at US$4.6 billion.
The KEDO board of directors had previously agreed upon US$5.18 billion as
the total cost last December. The ROK proposed the revised cost at this
meeting to account for the new exchange rate between the won and the
dollar. The board also agreed to a cost-sharing ratio whereby the ROK
will cover US$3.22 billion or 70 percent of the total, Japan will provide
a firm and fixed US$1 billion, and the remainder will be shared by the US
and the European Union (EU) nations. KEDO did not disclose the US-EU
cost-sharing ratio. The cost-sharing agreement is subject to final
endorsement by the governments of the respective country. (Chosun Ilbo,
"KEDO CONFIRMS COST SHARE RATIO OF REACTOR IN NK," 07/30/98)
3. US Forces in ROK
The US Forces Korea (USFK) has recently returned about 5,000 acres of
military training areas to the ROK, the USFK said. The USFK statement
comes on the heels of an increased number of requests by Korean people
for the return of real estate that is currently being used by US forces.
Land is in short supply in the ROK amid the rapid expansion of urban
areas. According to USFK watchers, it is very rare for the USFK to speak
up on the land return issue, which is considered to be an increasingly
vexing problem to both sides. For instance, in the early 1990s, the
return of land occupied by US camps in Seoul was agreed to in principle,
but the agreement was left unfinished because of budget problems
concerning the relocation of the bases in question. In the process, the
ROK public was angered at what it saw as a lukewarm attitude on the part
of the USFK. (Korea Times, "USFK USES HALF MILLION ACRES OF LAND IN
KOREA," 07/30/98)
1. US Naval Deployment near Korean Peninsula
China Daily ("US WARSHIP DEPLOYMENT DENOUNCED BY DPRK," Seoul, 07/28/98,
A12) reported that on July 27 the DPRK denounced US plans to deploy
warships closer to the divided Korean Peninsula as "tantamount to a
declaration of war" and threatened to take "powerful self-defensive
steps." The Korean Central News Agency accused the US of sending the
nuclear-powered aircraft carrier Carl Vinson and "some 20 nuclear-powered
attack submarines, various types of warplanes and troops" near to the
peninsula. US officials have declined to say which types of ships are
being deployed.
2. Light Water Reactor Project
According to People's Daily ("DPRK URGES THE US TO FULFILL AGREEMENT,"
Pyongyang, 07/20/98, A6), the Korean Central News Agency emphasized in a
commentary on July 18 that the construction of light-water reactors (LWR)
was not bestowed by the US as a favor. It was the commitment of the US
to the DPRK. The US should take its obligations seriously and fulfill
the nuclear framework agreement signed by two countries, the DPRK said.
The commentary warned that if the construction of LWR were delayed again
and again, the DPRK would have to consider restarting its own nuclear
industry, which has been frozen by the framework agreement.
3. PRC-US Relations
People's Daily ("FM SPOKESMAN ANSWERS QUESTIONS," Beijing, 07/24/98, A4)
reported that the PRC welcomed the US House of Representatives' approval
on July 22 of President Bill Clinton's decision to maintain normal trade
relations with the PRC. PRC Foreign Ministry spokesman Tang Guoqiang
praised it as "wise" for the House to vote down the draft resolution on
"revoking Most Favored Nation (MFN) status for China." Tang said that
the annual review by the US side of the PRC's MFN status has not only
added a destabilizing factor to such ties, but is also detrimental to a
stable development of bilateral relations as a whole. "We hope that the
US will comply with the trend of the times and work out a permanent
resolution to China's MFN status early so as to create conditions for
sustained, sound and stable development of the economic cooperation and
trade between the two countries," Tang said.
China Daily ("NEW TRADE STATUS HAILED AS `WISE AND PRACTICAL'," 07/28/98,
A2) reported that PRC Foreign Ministry spokesman Tang Guoqiang said on
July 27 that the PRC welcomes the US recent decision to change its "Most
Favored Nation" (MFN) trading status into "Normal Trade Relations" (NTR).
However, he voiced strong dissatisfaction with a resolution the US House
of Representatives recently passed affirming the so-called US commitment
to Taiwan. He said that the resolution severely violated principles
guiding Sino-US relations as enshrined in the three Sino-US Joint
Communiques and the Sino-US Joint Statement, as well as the US
Government's commitment to pursue the "One China" policy.
4. PRC-Japan Relations
Jie Fang Daily ("TANG JIAXUAN MEETS WITH OBUCHI," Manila, 07/27/98, A3)
reported that PRC Foreign Minister Tang Jiaxuan met with Japanese Foreign
Minister Keizo Obuchi in Manila on July 26. During the meeting, Tang
said, PRC President Jiang Zemin's planned visit to Japan later this year
will be of great and far-reaching significance for PRC-Japanese ties and
will draw extensive attention from the international community. He said
that Jiang's visit is mainly aimed at exploring with Japan the building
of a framework for the next century's PRC-Japanese friendship and
relationship. Obuchi, who will become the Japanese Prime Minister,
pledged to further promote the relations between the two countries. He
said the Japanese Government would do its utmost to prepare for President
Jiang's visit. Regarding the East Asian financial crisis, Tang said that
the PRC is aware of its responsibilities and has done its best to
alleviate the meltdown. The PRC hopes that Japan will make its due
contributions to overcoming the financial crisis and achieving economic
recovery in Asia as soon as possible by making use of its economic
advantages.
5. PRC-Russian Relations
People's Daily ("JIANG ZEMIN MEETS WITH RUSSIAN FOREIGN MINISTER,"
Beijing, 07/24/98, A1) reported that PRC President Jiang Zemin is looking
forward to his summit with Russian President Boris Yeltsin. When meeting
Russian Foreign Minister Yevgeny Primakov, Jiang said that Sino-Russian
relations are developing quite well and it is the PRC's fixed policy to
develop a long, stable and good-neighborly friendship with Russia. The
PRC is willing to undertake joint efforts and coordinate closely with
Russia to bring a healthy and stable Sino-Russian relationship into the
21st century, Jiang said.
China Daily ("ZHU STRESSES STABLE RELATIONS WITH RUSSIA," 07/24/98, A1)
reported that to develop a long-term, stable and mutually beneficial
relationship with Russia remains a principal aim of the PRC's foreign
policy. PRC Premier Zhu Rongji made the remarks during a meeting with
visiting Russian Foreign Minister Yevgeny Primakov in Beijing on July 22.
PRC Foreign Minister Tang Jiaxuan also met with Primakov on July 22.
They expressed satisfaction with the continuous good development of
bilateral relations this year. The two foreign ministers discussed in
detail arrangements for the informal meeting between PRC President Jiang
Zemin and his Russian counterpart Boris Yeltsin.
6. Taiwan Nuclear Waste Disposal
China Daily ("NUCLEAR WASTE DUMP OPPOSED," Fuzhou, 07/25/98) reported
that environmental officials in the eastern PRC's Fujian Province have
expressed bitter opposition to a Taiwan power company's plans to dispose
of nuclear waste on an offshore island in the vicinity of Putian County
in Fujian. Yang Mingyi, director of the Fujian Environmental Protection
Bureau, said that the people of Fujian Province have "voiced great
concern and exhibited strong indignation over the proposed plan." The
disposal of nuclear waste presents wide-ranging problems related to
health and environmental protection, the newspaper said.
7. PRC National Defense White Paper
China Daily ("DOCUMENT DEFENDS DEFENSE POLICY," 07/28/98, A1) reported
that a 30,000-character White Paper, "China's National Defense," was
issued by the PRC State Council's Information Office on July 27. It said
that the social system, development strategy and way of life that the PRC
has chosen conform to conditions within the country, and no factors
prompting the invasion of another country can emerge. The paper said
that, as a country in the Asia-Pacific region, the PRC places great
importance on the region's security, stability, peace and development.
The PRC's Asia-Pacific security strategy has three objectives: the PRC's
own stability and prosperity; peace and stability in its surrounding
regions; and dialogue and cooperation with all countries in the Asia-
Pacific region.
8. PRC Army-Run Businesses
People's Daily ("PLA HOLDS JOINT ANTI-SMUGGLING CONFERENCE," Beijing,
07/23/98, A1) reported that the PRC central leadership has ordered the
armed forces to clear and close down all its businesses as a major
contribution to the current nationwide anti-smuggling drive. Jiang
Zemin, general secretary of the Communist Party of China and State
president, disclosed the plan at a joint anti-smuggling conference held
in Beijing on July 20 and 21 by the headquarters of the People's
Liberation Army. Jiang, who is also chairman of the Central Military
Commission, urged the armed forces to fully understand the importance and
urgency of the nationwide anti-smuggling campaign in order to ensure the
country's long-standing stability and the army's purity.
According to China Daily ("ARMY TOLD TO CLEAR UP BUSINESS PRACTICES,"
07/29/98, A1) reported that Hu Jintao, a standing committee member of the
Communist Party of China Central Committee's Political Bureau and the
Central Committee Secretariat, said that the PRC's armed forces, armed
police, and judicial organs must understand the importance of the recent
decision to end the businesses they run. Hu said the central
authorities' recent decision is a major step in building the Party and
the army under the new conditions, and in continuing the anti-corruption
campaign. If they engage in business, he said, the powerful army, the
armed police and law enforcement departments could become a hotbed of
corruption. Some of their units have been involved in illegal activities
like smuggling and the sale of smuggled goods, he added. He asked these
organizations to put the nation's and people's interests above anything
else.
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