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Northeast Asia Peace and Security Network DAILY REPORT For Monday, August 17, 1998, from Berkeley, California, USA |
1. Alleged DPRK Nuclear Plant
The New York Times (David E. Sanger, "NORTH KOREA SITE AN A-BOMB PLANT,
U.S. AGENCIES SAY," 08/17/98) reported that unnamed US officials said
that US intelligence agencies have detected a huge secret underground
complex in the DPRK that they believe is the centerpiece of an effort to
revive the country's frozen nuclear weapons program. The officials said
that spy satellites have extensively photographed a large work site 25
miles northeast of Yongbyon, where thousands of DPRK workers are
burrowing into the mountainside. Other intelligence, which the officials
would not describe, led the Clinton administration in recent weeks to
warn members of Congress and the ROK government in classified briefings
that they believed that the DPRK intended to build a new reactor and
reprocessing center under the mountain. Intelligence estimates of how
long it would take to complete the project have ranged from two to six
years, depending in part on how much outside help is received. An
unnamed senior administration official said that the DPRK had not yet
technically violated the 1994 Geneva Agreed Framework, because there is
no evidence that it has begun pouring cement for a new reactor or a
reprocessing plant that would convert nuclear waste into bomb-grade
plutonium. One anonymous US official stated, "It's a very, very serious
development, to say nothing of incredibly stupid, because it endangers
both the nuclear accord and humanitarian aid." Some US officials
speculated that Kim Jong-il might be trying to rebuild the DPRK's nuclear
program to bolster his standing with the DPRK military in advance of his
expected nomination to the presidency. Joseph Nye, dean of the Kennedy
School of Government at Harvard University, raised the possibility that
Kim may be looking at the new nuclear complex as a bargaining chip in
negotiations with the US. However, he added, "The danger is that the
weaker they become, the less willing they are to bargain. While that may
seem counterintuitive, the North Koreans usually get tougher as they get
cornered. In cultural terms, they may be more willing to accept risks in
a situation of desperation." US officials said that ROK officials have
played down the finding because they fear undermining ROK President Kim
Dae-jung's "sunshine policy" toward the DPRK.
2. Light-Water Reactor Project
Nucleonics Week (Mark Hibbs, "KEDO DELAY WOULD COMPLICATE KEPCO PLUTONIUM
USE STRATEGY," Bonn) reported that sources close to the project to build
two light-water reactors in the DPRK said that the original deadline for
completing the reactors by 2003 will not likely be met. ROK industry
officials, financial analysts, and other experts said that a prudent
estimate for when the two reactors in the DPRK could be completed is not
before 2005, and more likely later in the decade. They said that the
Korean Peninsula Energy Development Organization (KEDO) continues to be
interrupted by political obstacles posed by the DPRK, and that the cost
for building related basic power grid infrastructure in the DPRK is not
included in the project cost. They added that there are major technical
uncertainties about the verification of the DPRK's nuclear material
inventory. One Hong Kong market analyst said that the Asian financial
market "doesn't believe that this project will be finished until Korea is
unified and the DPRK dries up." Diplomatic sources said that if the
project were not completed by 2006, the US would formally deny prior
consent for the ROK utility Korea Electric Power Corp. (KEPCO) to
reprocess its spent fuel offshore. Instead, the US would try to
"persuade" the ROK to set up more permanent infrastructure for dry
storage of its spent fuel, although ROK officials warn that this would be
very difficult because of "green laws" which prohibit industry from
intensifying development of existing coastal plant sites. One US
official said that as long as the new reactors in the DPRK are not
finished, "any decision by KEPCO to reprocess would be seen by the DPRK
as a provocation." Officials said that one solution would be to likewise
allow the DPRK to recycle plutonium from the two reactors in tandem with
KEPCO to give the DPRK parity status with the ROK. However, they
asserted that that solution would never be seriously considered given
concerns about the DPRK's nonproliferation track record. The article
cited opponents of plutonium use as saying last week that the possibility
that an impasse in reactor construction would prevent KEPCO from
reprocessing should encourage the US to delay reactor construction as
long as possible so long as the DPRK is not prompted to restart its
nuclear program.
3. ROK Political Prisoners
The Associated Press ("NEW S.KOREA AMNESTY EXCLUDES MANY," Seoul,
08/15/98) and the Washington Post (Hyewook Cheong, "SOUTH KOREA FREES
7,000 PRISONERS," 08/15/98, A16) reported that 103 ROK political
prisoners were freed Saturday in a mass amnesty marking the 53rd
anniversary of Korea's independence from Japanese colonial rule. An
estimated 400 other political prisoners remained in prison after refusing
to sign an oath pledging to obey the ROK's laws. Hundreds of civil
rights activists held protests in front of jails across the country,
calling on the government to "Abolish the law-abiding oath!" Park No-
hae, a dissident poet who was released Saturday after spending seven
years in prison for organizing an underground leftist group, denounced
the oath requirement, saying, "I feel sorry for those remaining inside."
Saturday's amnesty also freed 2,071 ordinary prisoners, reduced the
prison terms of 13 prisoners, and restored civil rights for 4,820 people.
A statement by the Sarangbang Group for Human Rights said, "The
authorities gave amnesty to many politicians involved in corruption,
illegal election campaigns and past human rights violations. In this
context, we believe that the poor amnesty for prisoners of conscience is
just a pretext for the release of the politicians and former military
officials." Kim Sam-suk a former prisoner who served four years in
Taejon State Prison, said that more than 230 prisoners of conscience have
been jailed since Kim Dae-jung took office in February, "the largest
number of political prisoners at the beginning of any South Korean
president's term." Amnesty International welcomed the release of the
political prisoners but added, "Maintaining state security does not mean
locking people up for having left-wing views or keeping them locked up
because they refuse to accept a law which violates fundamental human
rights."
4. ROK Student Movement
The Associated Press ("SOUTH KOREA POLICE BLOCK PROTEST," Seoul,
08/16/98) reported that police maintained a tight cordon around Seoul
National University campus on Sunday to block street protests by 2,000
students. On Saturday, the police prevented the students from marching
to the border for a pro-unification rally with their DPRK counterparts by
using water cannons and pouring yellow dye solution from a helicopter to
mark the demonstrators for arrest. Police said that they detained 189
students in Saturday's clashes, and that all but 20 were released Sunday.
5. ROK Labor Unrest
The Associated Press (Kyong-Hwa Seok, "POLICE MAY BREAK UP HYUNDAI
STRIKE," Seoul, 08/17/98) reported that Labor Minister Lee Ki-ho appealed
for a negotiated settlement of a labor dispute at Hyundai Motor Co. on
Monday, but warned that the police would break up the strike if the
dispute is not resolved soon. News reports said the number of riot
police in Ulsan was being increased from 4,500 to 13,000. Chief
presidential spokesman Park Ji-won said earlier Monday that the
government's patience in dealing with the problem is limited. Meanwhile
the Korean Confederation of Trade Unions said Monday that other members
under its control would go on strike and the confederation would pull out
of talks with the government and management on labor problems if police
launch a raid on Hyundai plants.
6. ROK Prime Minister
The Associated Press ("NEW SOUTH KOREAN LEADER APPROVED," Seoul,
08/17/98) reported that the ROK National Assembly ratified Kim Jong-pil
as the ROK prime minister Monday, six months after his nomination by
President Kim Dae-jung. The 171-65 vote in favor came after the
opposition Grand National Party was given the chairmanships of six of the
General Assembly's 13 committees, including defense and foreign affairs.
7. ROK Currency Reserves
Dow Jones Newswires ("SOUTH KOREA'S FOREIGN-CURRENCY RESERVES RISE TO AN
ALL-TIME HIGH OF $43.91 BILLION," Seoul, 08/17/98) reported that the Bank
of Korea said Monday that the ROK's foreign currency reserves rose to an
all-time high of US$43.91 billion on August 15, up from US$43.02 billion
at the end of July. The bank said foreign reserves continued to rise
during the first 15 days of August because the central bank collected
loans it provided to commercial banks when the country's currency crisis
peaked in November and December last year. It added that, of the total
of US$23.29 billion provided to the commercial banks late last year,
nearly US$9.68 billion remained uncollected from the banks as of August
15.
8. Space Weapons Research
Reuters (Stephanie Nebehay, "CHINA WARNS 'STAR WARS' ARMS RACE NOT OVER,"
Geneva, 08/13/98) reported that the PRC Ambassador Li Change urged the UN
Conference on Disarmament on Thursday to take urgent action to prevent an
arms race in space. Li condemned space weapons research programs, which
he said were designed to seek "absolute strategic superiority and
absolute security for one or a few countries." He added, "The
consequence will be turning outer space into a base for weapons and a
battlefield. This will upset regional and global strategic stability,
trigger off a new arms race and undermine international peace and
security." Li also said, "Many of the technologies developed for the
Strategic Defense Initiative (SDI) have been switched to some other space
weapon programs." US Ambassador Robert Grey said afterwards, "We have
taken the position that there is no arms race in outer space and we don't
see a need to establish a committee on it." However, unnamed diplomats
said that sixty countries have agreed to the establishment of a
negotiating committee on the outer space issue, with only the US opposed.
1. US Sanctions on DPRK
The Japanese newspaper Sankei Shinmun reported in its Monday issue that
the US had decided to lift the freeze imposed upon DPRK assets in the US.
The article said that the US decided to do so to appease the DPRK for the
delays in delivering the heavy oil pledged according to the anti-nuclear
proliferation pact between the two countries. The newspaper added that
the US plans to notify the DPRK of the decision at a meeting between
high-ranking governmental officers of the two countries slated for this
Friday. The US government had frozen DPRK bank savings and real estate
in the US in the amount of US$13 million in 1953 when the Korean War
ended. (Chosun Ilbo, "US TO LIFT A FREEZE ON NK PROPERTY: SANKEI,"
08/17/98)
2. ROK-DPRK Dialogue
ROK President Kim Dae-jung's speech commemorating the 50th anniversary of
the ROK government's foundation Saturday was expected to include a
proposal that the two Koreas jointly establish a permanent dialogue body
which would be headed by minister- or vice minister-level officials. The
establishment of the body would facilitate the sincere exchange of
opinions between the two countries, said officials from the Presidential
office on Friday. In the speech, President Kim also will urge Pyongyang
to activate the joint committee, which would include representatives from
every sector, as early as possible. The two countries had previously
agreed that an inter-Korea committee should be formed, but no bilateral
action has been taken so far. Kim added that he is ready to dispatch a
special envoy to the DPRK to move ahead with the proposal. The
Presidential office also said that the President would introduce a
nation-wide movement, called the 'Second Establishment,' which would
allow the country to reshape its vision for the future and revitalize
public morale to prepare for a new era of progress. The three major
principles of freedom, justice and efficiency are to serve as the
foundations to make this new movement a success. Kim will also pledge
that the government will do its utmost to restructure all sectors of
society this year, bring an end to an IMF-governed economy next year, and
usher in a new era of prosperity for the country in the 21st century.
(Chosun Ilbo, "PRESIDENT PROPOSES AN INTER-KOREA DIALOGUE BODY,"
08/15/98)
3. ROK Student Movement
The Seoul District Prosecutors' Office announced Monday that it had
released Seong Yong-seung, former student at Konguk University, and Park
Seong-hee, formerly of Kyonhee University, who had been arrested for
entering the DPRK illegally and engaging in allegedly pro-DPRK activity
in Berlin. In addition, Choi Jeong-nam (Seoul National University), Yoo
Se-hong (Chosun University), and Do Jong-hwa (Yonsei University), who
were arrested for the same offense, were also released. An ROK spokesman
said that the students had voluntarily closed their office in Berlin and,
after returning to Seoul on Friday, cooperated with authorities and
pledged to abide by ROK law. (Chosun Ilbo, "FIVE STUDENTS RELEASED AFTER
ENTERING NK," 08/18/98)
About 1,600 members of Hanchongnyon, an organization of ROK university
students, continued their rallies at Seoul National University Sunday
afternoon as their attempt to hold a pan-national festival calling for
the unification of the country was foiled by the police. The members had
been rallying at the university since last Wednesday. On Saturday
afternoon, about 2,500 members of the league attempted to go out into the
streets from the university, but the police blocked their advance. About
900 of them, however, fled out into the street in smaller groups and the
police arrested 188 members who attempted to gather together at
Panmunjom. (Chosun Ilbo, "HANCHONGNYUN CONTINUES RALLIES," 08/17/98)
1. US Food Aid for DPRK
[The following is a policy recommendation by The Institute for Strategic
Reconciliation, Inc., on the US supply of 500,000 tons of US Wheat
Surplus to the DPRK. The views expressed are those of the institute and
the report's authors.]
"ISR Statistical Snapshot of Relief and Development in DPR Korea (ISR)
August, 15, 1998"
Policy Action Recommendation: It is recommend that the US government
provide at least 500,000 tons of wheat surplus to hunger-stricken DPR
Korea, which still has a shortfall of one million metric tons of grain,
by this October.
DPR Korea is not ready yet to break the cycle of food crisis as its
upcoming fall crop would produce only half of its 23 million people's
grain needs even under the most ideal weather conditions in August.
Pyongyang is not able to import the remaining shortfall due to years of
economic isolation and economic deficits, especially since the fall of
the Soviet Union and eastern European block. The three years of natural
disaster has aggravated the food and public health crisis, leaving
millions of children, elderly and pregnant or nursing women on the
cutting edge of a knife.
Analysis: Even after donating a very generous amount of 1.5 million tons
of American wheat surplus to Indonesia, Washington still has 1 million
tons of wheat surplus to help all 9 countries designated by the World
Food Program (WFP) as "high" or "other" priority. The 9 countries have
all together a current shortfall only of 690,000 tons of grain based on
the WFP appeal. "The humanitarian crisis in North Korea is far from
over," noted in July both the WFP/FAO joint mission to DPR Korea and the
U.S. Agency for International Development. The need in this isolated
country is significantly greater than in other countries. DPR Korea has
shown a pattern of engagement with the international community by hosting
the Geneva Roundtable to discuss agricultural rehabilitation measures and
allowing a dozen international NGOs and over 100 international relief
workers to stay in country, to name a few engagement practices. None of
these foreigners were allowed in three years ago when DPR Korea asked for
help to the international community for the first time in its modern
history.
Fact 1: The emergency operation resources prioritized by the World Food
Programme indicate that the shortfall of emergency aid to DPR Korea,
374,706 metric tons, accounts for 54 percent of the total amount of the
current shortfall of 690,286 metric tons, as of July 19, 1998. Such a
shortfall is based on the WFP's programs, which are designed to assist
only one-third of DPR Korea's 23 million people. The actual, critical
shortage for the total population in North Korea is estimated to reach
about 1 million metric tons by this October.
Fact 2: President Clinton announced on July 18 that the U.S. government
is buying 2.5 million tons of surplus wheat to help American farmers, and
will be donating the wheat to countries including Indonesia, Sudan,
Ethiopia, Eritrea, and North Korea which have been hit by humanitarian
crisis. Secretary of State Madeleine Albright said on July 31 that
Washington has pledged to send 500,00 tons of wheat to Indonesia with
another one million tons to be potentially allocated as well. Brian
Atwood announced on August 5 the expanded list of 18 nations and regions
to receive the U.S. wheat surplus. DPR Korea, a nation both on the list
of President Clinton's initial list and WFP's current highest priority of
emergency assistance, was not included.
For comments contact: Young Chun, Executive Director, or Jeeyoung Eun,
Communications Director, FAX: (301) 570-3948. A web
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