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Northeast Asia Peace and Security Network DAILY REPORT For Friday, September 4, 1998, from Berkeley, California, USA |
1. Alleged DPRK Satellite Launch
Reuters (Brian Williams, "N. KOREA SAYS LAUNCHED FIRST SATELLITE, NOT
MISSILE," Tokyo, 09/04/98) and the Associated Press ("NORTH KOREA: IT
WASN'T A MISSILE," Seoul, 09/04/98) reported that the DPRK denied Friday
that it had launched a ballistic missile, saying that Monday's rocket
firing was a success launch into orbit of the DPRK's first artificial
satellite. A statement by the DPRK Foreign Ministry said, "Some people
... are making a fuss, ignorant of this valuable success of science and
technology." It added, "Particularly, the forces hostile towards the
DPRK must be mindful that their attempt to lead the DPRK to a change will
bring them nothing but destruction. Japanese Prime Minister Keizo Obuchi
said that he doubted the rocket carried a satellite, stating, "If it was
launched, I guess Japan's technology could have already picked it up."
In Washington, an anonymous State Department official said it was
impossible to confirm the DPRK's claim that the launch was a scientific
satellite, but that it nonetheless showed that the DPRK had demonstrated
the capability to deliver a payload 1,500 miles.
Reuters ("WASHINGTON STICKS TO KOREAN MISSILE STORY," Washington,
09/04/98) reported that an unnamed US Defense Department official said
Friday that the US doubted that the object launched by the DPRK Monday
was a satellite rather than a ballistic missile. He stated, "We still
maintain it was a Taepodong." He added, "We monitor the (Korean)
peninsula very closely." The report noted that details of the launch
provided in the DPRK statement were almost identical to US reports. [Ed.
note: US experts have confirmed to Nautilus that the given coordinates
are plausible for the launch of an artificial satellite.]
2. Possibility of Second DPRK Missile Test
The New York Times (Steven Lee Myers, "NORTH KOREANS MAY BE PREPARING
ANOTHER MISSILE TEST," Washington, 09/04/98) reported that US and
Japanese officials said Thursday that the DPRK may be preparing to test
another missile. A US government official said that the US has detected
a flurry of activity at the same military base along the DPRK's
northeastern coast used to launch a two-stage rocket on Monday. The
official added, however, that it appeared that the DPRK was making
preparations to test one or more of its older missiles. One unnamed US
official said, "While there is activity around the launch site, it is not
at all certain there is going to be any kind of test." US officials also
said Thursday that the DPRK had issued a maritime alert to ships passing
through the Sea of Japan, indicating that there could be military
activity in the area until September 20.
Reuters ("JAPAN COULD RESPOND TO MISSILES-DEFENCE HEAD QUOTED," Tokyo,
09/04/98) and the Associated Press ("JAPAN DEFENSE HEAD: ATTACK ON N.
KOREA BASES STILL AN OPTION," Tokyo, 09/04/98) reported that Japanese
Defense Minister Fukushiro Nukaga said on Friday that, under a self-
defense policy adopted in 1956, Japan would have the right to strike back
if attacked by missiles. Nukaga stated, "As one of many options, it's
still alive." He added, however, that it is the duty of the government
to address the DPRK missile test issue with diplomacy.
The Associated Press ("U.S. WARNS N. KOREA AGAINST FURTHER MISSILE TESTS
- OFFICIAL," Tokyo, 09/04/98) reported that an unnamed senior US defense
official said Friday that the US considers the DPRK's missile launch a
serious threat to Japan's security and has warned the DPRK against
carrying out any further launches. He added that the US would work with
Japan to formulate a response to the DPRK's threat. He said that one
measure would likely be an agreement by Japan to join the US in
developing a ballistic missile defense system.
3. ROK Policy toward DPRK
The Washington Times (Ben Barber, "JAPAN, S. KOREA, ON ALERT IN PACIFIC,"
09/03/98) reported that the ROK government has urged privately that
patience might resolve the crisis over the DPRK rocket launch within two
or three months. An unnamed diplomat in the ROK said that "Seoul sees
Kim [Jong-il]'s installation as president a great opportunity to make an
advance in its policy of engaging North Korea while making up for its
mistakes when his father died four years ago." He added, "The government
is serious about its 'Sunshine Policy' of reconciliation and sees this
time of celebration for North Korea as a very rare window through which
it can reach out successfully to the North."
4. DPRK Missile Sales
The Washington Times (Ben Barber, "JAPAN, S. KOREA, ON ALERT IN PACIFIC,"
09/03/98) reported that Scott Snyder of the US Institute of Peace said in
Tokyo that the new missile tested Monday is aimed at boosting sagging
DPRK profits from missile exports. Snyder stated, "In some respects
[missiles] are a sunset industry in North Korea. This is an effort to
revive the sales."
Reuters ("NKOREA DEMANDS MONEY TO END MISSILE EXPORTS-SEOUL," Seoul,
09/04/98) reported that the ROK Unification Ministry said on Friday that
the DPRK has demanded money from the US in return for ending its missile
exports. A ministry spokesman said that National Unification Minister
Kang In-duk told the National Assembly on Thursday that the DPRK made the
demand during recent talks with the US in New York. Kang said that the
DPRK earned about US$580 million from missile exports between 1987 and
1992.
5. DPRK Missile Development
The Washington Times (Rowan Scarborough, "N. KOREA MISSILES CAN IMPROVE,
EXPERTS WARN," 09/04/98) reported that Henry Sokolski, Director of the
Nonproliferation Policy Education Center, said that with help from an
established power like Russia, the DPRK could test a longer-range
Taepodong-2 missile within several years. Sokolski stated, "Once again,
the assumption among optimists seems to be that North Korea will work
totally by themselves. There are reasons to doubt that." He added,
"North Korea is in bed with Iran, which is in bed with the Russians.
They may well have access to other countries' contributions." Gary
Milhollin of the Wisconsin Project on Nuclear Arms Control argued, "I
think it was a surprise they were able to do the staging in such a short
time. The fact the Russians are helping Iran shamelessly indicates to me
the Russians are available." He added, "If you can do two stages you can
do three stages and then you can hit things a long way. My impression is
we were skeptical about their ability to do staging. They somehow have
managed to overcome that hurdle, which is a big technical hurdle because
the technology they imported and reversed engineered has all been one-
stage technology." However Robert Bell, a key adviser to US President
Bill Clinton on defense and arms-control policies, argued, "One of the
reasons that we are confident that we will have three years strategic
warning of an intercontinental-range threat is that the degree of
technical challenge going from an intermediate-range missile like the
Taepodong-1 to an intercontinental-range missile like the Taepodong-2 is
really quite profound. It's not a simple scaling up in terms of the
power of the missile. The technical challenge of going from a theater-
range system to an intercontinental-range system is quite daunting and
unique."
6. Remains of US Soldiers from Korean War
The Associated Press (J. H. Yun, "N. KOREA RETURNS REMAINS OF MIAS,"
Panmunjom, 09/04/98) reported that the DPRK returned three sets of
skeletal remains Friday believed to be those of US soldiers missing from
the Korean War. The remains were flown to the US Army's Central
Identification Laboratory in Hawaii for forensic tests and
identification.
7. Kim Jong-il's Ascension
The Associated Press ("NEW N. KOREAN PARLIAMENT TO MEET," Seoul,
09/04/98) reported that the DPRK's Korean Central News Agency said that
deputies to the Supreme People's Assembly arrived in Pyongyang on
Thursday for a session that begins Saturday. The report said that the
delegates, "are filled with firm determination to make a historic phase
for the strengthening and development of the Democratic People's Republic
of Korea."
The Associated Press (Paul Shin, "KIM JONG IL TO LEAD NORTH KOREA,"
Seoul, 09/04/98) reported that analysts expect Kim Jong-il to be named
President of the DPRK during a session of the Supreme People's Assembly
that begins Saturday. Park Young-rim, a political science professor at
Korea University, stated, "For North Korea, it'll be a long time coming
but it will not bring any drastic change in the country's Cold War
foreign policy." He added, however, that the DPRK under Kim Jong Il's
presidency might expand economic contact with the outside world, while at
the same time carefully guarding against the possibility of any economic
opening causing instability in the DPRK's society. Yoon Duk-min, a
researcher at the Institute of Foreign Affairs and National Security, a
government think-tank, stated, "The recent firing of a long-range missile
over Japan is a typical example of the North's hard-line policy of
resorting to brinkmanship." He said that the missile launch appears to
have had the dual purpose of solidifying internal unity and sending a
message to the outside world that despite its economic difficulties, the
DPRK's military power remains formidable. He added, "Missiles are
another bargaining chip North Korea is using to exact economic aid from
neighboring countries. They are desperate, so they have nothing to be
afraid of."
1. DPRK Missile Test
ROK and Japanese foreign ministers agreed Thursday to meet with their US
counterpart on countermeasures to the DPRK missile threat, the ROK
Foreign Affairs and Trade Ministry said Thursday. The meeting will be
held in New York, where the ministers are scheduled to attend a meeting
of the UN General Assembly later this month, the ministry said. ROK
Foreign Affairs and Trade Minister Hong Soon-young and his Japanese
counterpart Masahiko Komura, agreed on the proposed tripartite talks when
they met in Tokyo Thursday evening. The two foreign ministers, who had
intended to focus on ROK President Kim Dae-jung's state visit to Japan
scheduled for next month, also took up the issue concerning the DPRK's
test. Concerning a report that the DPRK was preparing to test fire
another ballistic missile within a few days, an ROK Defense Ministry
official said that it might actually be a shorter-range Rodong missile.
ROK Defense Minister Chun Yong-taek said Thursday that the ROK would
closely consult with Japan and the US to tackle the missile threat. He
said he had agreed with his Japanese counterpart Fukushiro Nakaga that
top defense officials from the two countries should meet to discuss
DPRK's missile program. (Chosun Ilbo, "SOUTH KOREA, US, JAPAN TO DISCUSS
NORTH KOREA MISSILE THREAT," 09/04/98)
2. Kim Jong-il's Ascension
A newly-elected DPRK parliament, or the Supreme People's Assembly (SPA),
is expected to elect Kim Jong-il as state president when it opens its
first session Saturday. When Kim, the eldest son of the late President
Kim Il-sung, assumes the presidency, it will mark the first hereditary
succession of power in a Communist country. The presidency, along with
chairmanship of the party's Central Military Committee, are the only two
top posts left vacant. In addition to electing the state president with
a five-year term, the SPA is also expected to elect a new prime minister
and fill top military posts. DPRK Premier Kang Song-san is known to be
suffering from a serious illness, and the defense minister's post has
been vacant since the death of Choe Gwang last year. Kim's accession to
the presidency is expected to come no later than the 50th anniversary of
the DPRK government, which falls on September 9. DPRK Vice President
Park Song-chol reportedly said during his trip to Thailand at the end of
last month, "On the founding day, North Koreans will receive good news
... Kim will assume the presidency." A DPRK diplomat in Russia was
quoted as saying Thursday that Kim will assume the leadership of the DPRK
before the 50th anniversary. ROK officials and watchers monitoring DPRK
news said that the DPRK appears to be making Kim's assumption of the
presidency a fait accompli. They said preparations for Kim's
inauguration have been in full swing since the DPRK announced the opening
of the new SPA last month. DPRK news media recently reported that more
than 30 committees have been set up in foreign countries to provide
support for Kim's presidency. The DPRK's official Korean Central New
Agency referred to Kim as head of state for the first time Tuesday.
(Korea Herald, "KIM JONG-IL EXPECTED TO ASSUME PRESIDENCY TODAY AT
ASSEMBLY," 09/05/98)
3. ROK Theater Missile Defense
The ROK is expected to hasten the development of a missile system that is
capable of intercepting incoming missiles in the aftermath of the DPRK's
successful test launch of a medium range missile. According to ROK
military sources Thursday, the ROK Defense Ministry has initiated a
program to develop a middle range surface-to-air missile, code-named, "M-
SAM," this year. The ministry aims to enable the new missile to
intercept small targets like missiles. "We are trying to enlist the
technological help of Russia in the development of the M-SAM in such
areas as electronic guidance," a source said. The M-SAM program is aimed
at developing a missile that has a striking range of 30 to 60 km, in
order to replace the existing Hawk missiles that form the backbone of the
ROK's anti-aircraft system along with its Nikes, which have a range of
150 km. Following the Taepodong test firing, voices have begun to be
heard which cite the urgent need for the ROK to defend itself against the
increasing threat posed by DPRK ballistic missiles. Lawmakers demanded
the beefing up of the nation's anti-missile attack capabilities when the
ROK National Assembly's defense committee was called into session in the
aftermath of the test launch. Current plans call for the investment of a
total of ROK Won 200 to 300 billion in the development of the M-SAM by
2008. It is said that a ROK ministry official was recently sent to see
what Russia could offer in terms of M-SAM related technology transfer.
The ROK and Russia have established a technology transfer agreement in
the military field. The S-300 will be a candidate, along with the US-
made Patriots, for the ROK's delayed SAM-X project, which is aimed at
replacing the nation's aging arsenal of Nike missiles, and shoring up its
anti-missile defense capabilities. (Korea Times, "ROK TO DEVELOP MISSILE
INTERCEPTOR," 09/04/98)
4. Financing for Light-Water Reactor Project
US and ROK officials, who initially expressed understanding about Japan's
reaction to the DPRK missile test, are concerned that Japan's boycott of
the 1994 nuclear deal could lead the DPRK to violate the Agreed
Framework. An unnamed ROK Foreign Affairs-Trade Ministry official said,
"We are concerned about how long Japan will maintain its hardline stance.
It appears that Japan is wishing to keep its stance at least until late
this month when foreign ministers from the ROK, Japan and the US are
expected to meet in New York to discuss the missile issue. However, we
are not sure we can sit idly by during the next several weeks waiting for
Japan to shift its position." US Embassy officials in Seoul, stressing
Japan's practicality in policymaking, also speculated that Japan would
drop its hardline stance and return to its original position after its
temporary show of protest. Putting Japan's boycott aside, it is highly
likely that the US will fail to meet its obligations regarding the
nuclear deal. Now that Japan is infuriated over the missile test, the US
administration has no option but to expect some help from its own
Congress. Although the US Congress supports spending more on heavy oil,
it is virtually impossible to meet the October 21 deadline. (Korea
Times, "JAPAN'S NO TO KEDO MAY NOT LAST LONG," 09/05/98)
1. Japanese Reaction to DPRK Missile Test
The Daily Yomiuri (Kazuyuki Matsuura, "GOVERNMENT SEEKS CENSURE OF NORTH
KOREA BY UNITED NATIONS," New York, 09/04/98) reported that the Japanese
government is planning to submit to the UN Security Council (UNSC) a
draft resolution or statement denouncing the DPRK's missile-launching on
August 31, according to diplomatic sources. A draft resolution or
proposed statement may be submitted before the General Assembly convenes
next Wednesday. The report said that preparations for a draft document
moved into full gear on Wednesday at the Japanese UN representative
office in New York, when Hisashi Owada, Japanese ambassador to UN,
returned from a visit to South Africa. The office will draft the
document in close consultation with the Foreign Ministry and Security
Council members. Masaki Konishi, deputy ambassador to the UN, telephoned
his DPRK counterpart, Kim Chang-guk, to protest the missile launching
shortly after news of it reached his office. The office has so far
received no official response from the DPRK, according to the report.
However, in response to the Yomiuri Shimbun's question on September 2, a
DPRK diplomatic source criticized Japan's stance, saying, "Japan does not
know whether a missile test has been conducted or not." The source added
that Japan has developed similar missile technology, apparently referring
to Japan's space program. "Japan is in no position to criticize our
country," the source said. The report added that, according to Japanese
diplomatic sources, the government tried to contact the DPRK through the
PRC, which usually serves as the diplomatic channel between the two
countries, but has not received any response so far from the DPRK.
2. Alleged Plans for Second DPRK Test
The Daily Yomiuri ("FISHING BOAT MONITORED," 09-04-98) reported that the
Japanese Defense Agency is closely following the movements of DPRK
fishing boats operating around Aomori Prefecture that are suspected of
being placed there to observe a second ballistic missile test, according
to sources close to the agency. The sources said that early Thursday
morning, a convoy of 10 DPRK fishing ships was spotted running between
Cape Tappi in northern Honshu and Hokkaido, and that by 10 am, the
vessels were seen sailing in the Pacific Ocean off the east coast.
Another five DPRK fishing boats remained in the Sea of Japan about 100
kilometers west of Cape Tappi as of noon. The report added that
observation ships are often sent to the area directly below the expected
trajectory of a ballistic missile during a test.
3. Japanese Satellite Development
The Yomiuri Shimbun ("PRIME MINISTER IS POSITIVE ABOUT INTRODUCING
RECONNAISSANCE SATELLITE," 09/04/98) reported that Japanese Prime
Minister Keizo Obuchi, at an upper house meeting on September 3, did not
rule out Japan's introduction of its own reconnaissance satellite in the
wake of the recent DPRK missile launch over Japan. Obuchi stated, "I am
gravely interested in it as a useful means of information-gathering, and
I would like to study it." In relation to this, Defense Agency Director
General Fukushiro Nukaga, regarding the 1969 lower house decision to
restrict the development of space technology to peaceful purposes,
emphasized the conventional view that the use by the Self-Defense Forces
of civilian technologies does not contradict the decision. As for a
theater missile defense (TMD) program, Obuchi said, "It is purely a means
of defense with no offensive capability. It does not exceed a minimum
defense capability."
4. Japanese-ROK Relations
The Daily Yomiuri ("MISSILE SPARKS JAPAN, ROK, US TALKS," 09/04/98)
reported that Japanese Foreign Minister Masahiko Komura and his ROK
counterpart Hong Soon-young agreed on September 3 in Tokyo to discuss
ways to deal with the DPRK's missile test-firing over Japan in the
upcoming UN General Assembly meeting in New York slated for later this
month. Komura, while noting the strategic importance of Japan's
contribution to the Korean Peninsula Energy Development Organization
(KEDO), said that the government could not sign a cost-sharing accord for
the light-water reactor construction at the moment, in light of Japan's
public sentiment against the missile test. On the other hand, Hong
reportedly said, "Considering the current atmosphere caused by the
missile firing, there is no need for Japan to rush into signing the
accord." Hong also promised that the ROK would be ready to help Japan
bring up the incident with the UN Security Council and the UN General
Assembly. As for ROK President Kim Dae-jung's visit to Japan in early
October, Komura said that Japan will "look directly at the past" so that
the two countries could join hands in contributing to Northeast Asia and
the world in the 21st century. Hong, while noting the importance of
historical issues, emphasized the need to create a new partnership as the
next century approaches. Komura said that the government will work to
narrow the two countries' differences regarding the continued refusal by
former "comfort women" in the ROK to accept compensation supported by the
Asia Peace National Fund for Women, a private Japanese organization.
Hong agreed to work toward the same goal. Both ministers also emphasized
the need to reach agreement on a new fisheries treaty, which has been
deadlocked, before Kim's visit.
5. Japanese-Russian Relations
The Daily Yomiuri ("KOMURA'S RUSSIA TRIP SET FOR SEPT. 13-16," 09/04/98)
reported that Japanese Foreign Minister Masahiko Komura will make a four-
day visit to Russia from September 13 for meetings with Russian President
Boris Yeltsin and Russian Foreign Minister Yevgeny Primakov, according to
Foreign Ministry officials. The visit is expected to pave the way for
Prime Minister Keizo Obuchi's summit meeting with Yeltsin in November.
Former Prime Minister Ryutaro Hashimoto, who has been assigned as
Obuchi's chief foreign adviser, will also visit Russia on September 16 to
meet with Yeltsin.
1. DPRK Denies Missile Test
The Korean Central News Agency ("SUCCESSFUL LAUNCH OF FIRST SATELLITE IN
DPRK," Pyongyang, 09/04/98) reported that the DPRK conducted its first
successful launch of an artificial satellite on Monday. The report
stated, "Our scientists and technicians have succeeded in launching the
first artificial satellite aboard a multi-stage rocket into orbit. The
rocket was launched in the direction of 86 degrees at a launching station
in Musudan-ri, Hwadae county, North Hamgyong Province at 12:07 August 31,
Juche 87 (1998) and correctly put the satellite into orbit at 12 hours 11
minutes 53 seconds in four minutes 53 seconds. The rocket is of three
stages. The first stage was separated from the rocket 95 seconds after
the launch and fell on the open waters of the East Sea of Korea 253 km
off the launching station, that is 40 degrees 51 minutes north latitude
139 degrees 40 minutes east longitude. The second stage opened the
capsule in 144 seconds, separated itself from the rocket in 266 seconds
and fell on the open waters of the Pacific 1,646 km off from the
launching station, that is 40 degrees 13 minutes north latitude 149
degrees 07 minutes east longitude. The third stage put the satellite
into orbit 27 seconds after the separation of the second stage. The
satellite is running along the oval orbit 218.82 km in the nearest
distance from the earth and 6,978.2 km in the farthest distance. Its
period is 165 minutes 6 seconds. The satellite is equipped with
necessary sounding instruments. It will contribute to promoting
scientific research for peaceful use of outer space. It is also
instrumental in confirming the calculation basis for the launch of
practical satellites in the future. The satellite is now transmitting
the melody of the immortal revolutionary hymns 'Song of General Kim Il
Sung' and 'Song of General Kim Jong Il' and the Morse signals 'Juche
Korea' in 27 MHz. The rocket and satellite which our scientists and
technicians correctly put into orbit at one launch are a fruition of our
wisdom and technology 100 percent. The successful launch of the first
artificial satellite in the DPRK greatly encourages the Korean people in
the efforts to build a powerful socialist state under the wise leadership
of General Secretary Kim Jong Il."
The Korea Central News Agency ("FOREIGN MINISTRY SPOKESMAN ON SUCCESSFUL
LAUNCH OF ARTIFICIAL SATELLITE," Pyongyang, 09/04/98) reported that a
spokesman for the DPRK Foreign Ministry issued a statement Friday
regarding the DPRK's reported launch of an artificial satellite. The
spokesman said, "The satellite launch is one more fruit of the
independent national economy, a product of 100 percent local technology
and local effort. This gives pride and delight to the Korean nation and
their friends. Some people around the DPRK, however, are making a fuss,
ignorant of this valuable success of science and technology which will
add to the common treasurehouse of humanity. They suspected it to be a
ballistic missile launching test, expressed some 'apprehensions' and
described it as a 'serious event.'... Some people in the United States
talk as if the ballistic missile launched by the DPRK had made it
difficult for them to fulfill their obligation under the DPRK-U.S.
framework agreement. They try to link this matter with food assistance,
which they have described as a purely humanitarian issue. What is more
intolerable is Japan's behavior. Although they have no information on
what happened, the Japanese authorities, blindly accepting rumors about
the ballistic missile launching test in the DPRK, are threatening that
they will bring this issue to the United Nations Security Council and
that they will take 'countermeasures.' Before announcing that they would
'put off' negotiations for normalization of diplomatic relations, Japan
must not forget that it is our right, not any bargaining thing, to demand
apologies and compensation for its past crimes, and that we are willing
to exercise our right. It is an internationally recognized right of a
sovereign state to peacefully use space. It is also a strong trend of
modern science and technology to develop, launch and use an artificial
satellite in line with this. We have never criticized the United States
and Japan for having launched artificial satellites. We are well aware
that these satellites have been used for espionage on our country. For
our country to have an artificial satellite, therefore, is an only too-
natural exercise of sovereignty--whether this capacity will be used for a
military purpose or not, entirely depends on the attitude of forces
hostile towards us. The United States must ponder over its military
pressure upon and preemptive attack on the DPRK. Japan must be aware
that an attempt to enact a law for involvement in belligerent relations
between the DPRK and the U.S. is tantamount to a declaration of war
against the DPRK. The artificial satellite recently launched just before
the historic first session of the 10th Supreme People's Assembly of the
DPRK manifests the iron will and indomitable spirit of our party, army
and people who are working hard for the greater prosperity of the
country, pulling through difficulties. Those two countries must be aware
of this. Particularly, the forces hostile towards the DPRK must be
mindful that their attempt to lead the DPRK to a change will bring them
nothing but destruction."
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