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Northeast Asia Peace and Security Network DAILY REPORT For Friday, September 11, 1998, from Berkeley, California, USA |
1. DPRK Alleged Satellite Launch
US Defense Department Spokesman Kenneth Bacon ("PENTAGON SPOKESMAN'S
REGULAR BRIEFING, SEPT. 10, 1998," USIA Transcript, 09/11/98) said that
the US Defense Department has not yet completed its analysis of the
DPRK's rocket launch, but does not have any evidence to confirm that the
DPRK conducted a successful satellite launch. Bacon said that the US
"will be able to tell with a fair degree of certainty whether they
attempted to launch a satellite." He added that it is "beyond doubt"
that the launch represents a military threat, whether it was a satellite
or a missile.
The Associated Press (David Briscoe, "N. KOREA ROCKET WORRIES NEIGHBORS,"
Washington, 09/11/98) reported that US Senator Craig Thomas, R-Wyo, said
that the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) believes
that the DPRK launch placed a nonfunctioning satellite into orbit.
However NASA spokesman Doug Isbell said he knew of no such report, adding
that it was unlikely NASA could reach that conclusion.
2. DPRK Underground Construction
The Associated Press (Sau Chan, "N.KOREA OKS NUCLEAR INSPECTION," New
York, 09/10/98) reported that a statement by the DPRK's UN mission
Thursday said that the DPRK would allow the US to inspect its underground
construction site near Yongbyon. The statement added, "If the U.S.
allegations are proved groundless through a visit to the site, the U.S.
is obliged to make appropriate compensation, particularly for slandering
and disgracing the DPRK." In a separate statement carried by the DPRK's
official Korean Central News Agency, the DPRK also demanded US
compensation for "slander, insult and defamation" for accusing it of
firing a ballistic missile last week.
3. DPRK Oil Deliveries
The Associated Press (David Briscoe, "U.S. TO DEAL WITH N. KOREA,"
Washington, 09/10/98) and the Washington Post (Thomas W. Lippman, "U.S.
SETS ACCORDS WITH N. KOREA, AIMING TO DEFUSE TENSIONS," 09/11/98, A25)
reported that the US House of Representatives Appropriations Committee
voted Thursday to delete all funding for DPRK oil deliveries. Committee
Chairman Bob Livingston, R-La., stated, "I don't think it serves any
purpose to give U.S. taxpayer money to a warlike country ... to subsidize
the war machine of North Korea." Although the money could be restored in
a House-Senate conference on the foreign operations spending bill,
congressional sources said that the final version of the measure is
certain to include a requirement that funding be continued only if the
president certifies that the DPRK has suspended all nuclear weapons
activities.
4. DPRK Threat to Japan
The Associated Press ("JAPAN REPORT: NORTH KOREA NO THREAT," Tokyo,
09/11/98) reported that Japan's Kyodo news service said Thursday that an
internal Japanese government report has determined that DPRK special
military forces lack the ships and other equipment needed to pose a
serious invasion threat to Japan. The report concluded that the DPRK
would be forced instead to attempt to infiltrate Japan on boats carrying
only three or four soldiers each, and avoid such heavily guarded areas as
Japanese or US military bases. The report said that likely targets of
such attacks would be commercial airports or oil pipelines. Kyodo said
that the report was based on intelligence obtained mainly from the US
military.
5. Japanese Response to DPRK Launch
The New York Times (Nicholas D. Kristof, "JAPAN MAY LAUNCH A SATELLITE IN
RESPONSE TO NORTH KOREA'S," Tokyo, 09/11/98) reported that Japanese Prime
Minister Keizo Obuchi said Thursday that Japan might launch its own
reconnaissance satellite to make it easier to monitor missile deployments
in the DPRK. Obuchi stated, "We have instructed ministries and agencies
to study what we would be able to launch and what functions it would be
able to perform."
6. ROK Policy toward DPRK
The Washington Post (Nora Boustany, "SOUTH KOREAN FOREIGN MINISTER SEES
CONTRADICTORY SIGNALS FROM NORTH," 09/11/98 A23) reported that ROK
Foreign Minister Hong Soon-young said Thursday that the DPRK is giving
contradictory signals on the country's future. On the one hand, Kim
Jong-il's appointment as Chairman of the National Defense Council and the
test-firing of medium-range missiles suggest increased militarization.
On the other, the newly appointed cabinet is composed of young
technocrats, and the principle of private management has been introduced
into the new constitution. Hong also said, "My interest lies in
implementing the Geneva framework agreement faithfully, but also we must
react to the missile firing with the same firmness. We understand the
resentment of the Japanese, since we have been living with this threat
for the last few decades, but we have to proceed with the implementation
of the agreement because it promotes the cause of the nonproliferation
treaty." Regarding food aid for the DPRK, he said, "I am in support of
the food aid program. It is coming in small quantities. There has not
been a massive outpouring, so it will not affect the balance between us.
It is only marginal it should be justified in the name of
humanitarianism."
7. ROK Economy
Reuters ("S.KOREA MINISTER SAYS ECONOMY EXPECTED TO WORSEN," Washington,
09/10/98) reported that ROK Foreign Affairs and Trade Minister Hong Soon-
yung said Thursday that the ROK will experience more bankruptcies and
layoffs before its economy starts to improve. He stated, "I don't think
we have reached the bottom yet.... I hope we will meet the bottom in
several month's time." Hong predicted that the ROK would begin the climb
back toward growth in one to two years.
8. PRC-Taiwan Trade Relations
The Wall Street Journal (Russell Flannery, "CHINA-TAIWAN TRADE DECLINES
AS BEIJING KEEPS YUAN STEADY," Taipei, 09/11/98) reported that the Asian
economic crisis and the PRC's decision to avoid devaluing its currency
are leading to a fall in PRC-Taiwan trade. The Taiwan Economics Ministry
said on August 27 that Taiwan's trade with the PRC fell 1.7 percent in
the first half of 1998 from a year a earlier to US$11.1 billion, led by a
4.9 percent decline in exports to US$9.1 billion.
9. Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty
The Associated Press (Ashok Sharma, "INDIA MAY SIGN NUKE TEST TREATY,"
New Delhi, 09/11/98) reported that Indian Prime Minister Atal Bihari
Vajpayee said Friday that India was already adhering to the spirit of the
Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT). He added, "A final decision on
signing the (treaty) will be taken soon." He said that the US should
grant more "leeway and concessions" to India to hasten the process.
Brajesh Mishra, Vajpayee's top adviser, stated, "We have undertaken a
test and we now have no need for further tests."
1. ROK-Japan Relations
ROK President Kim Dae-jung and First Lady Lee Hwi-ho will embark on a
four-day state visit to Japan on October 7, Chong Wa Dae officials
announced Friday. During the trip, Kim will meet with Japanese Emperor
Akihito and Prime Minister Keizo Obuchi to discuss major issues of mutual
concern. President Kim is making the trip for the first time since his
inauguration last February. It will be his second overseas trip,
following his visit to the US this past June. Kim is expected to work
out breakthroughs in the stalled fisheries talks between the ROK and
Japan and in resolving the historical animosity between the two
countries. Kim also plans to urge positive cooperation on the part of
Japan toward bringing the economic crisis in Northeast Asia to an end and
hopes to reinforce the partnership between the two countries in dealing
with the DPRK. (Chosun Ilbo, "PRESIDENT TO MAKE STATE VISIT TO Japan,"
09/12/98)
2. US-DPRK Talks
The US State Department officially announced Friday the results of the
recent meeting between high-ranking government officials of the US and
the DPRK. In a briefing, James Rubin, the Department spokesman, said
that the two countries agreed to resume the main session of four-party
talks on resolving security issues on the Korean peninsula sometime next
month. They also agreed to open the third round of US-DPRK missile
talks. The spokesman also said that the US and the DPRK will both abide
by a bilateral nuclear-freeze accord signed in Geneva in 1994. The US
will deliver 284,000 tons of heavy oil to the DPRK before the end of the
year, while the main construction work for a light-water reactor will
proceed in November. With progress made in its relations with the DPRK
during the talks, the US government is expected to announce a plan to
make a 300,000-ton shipment of wheat to the DPRK next week. ("US
ANNOUNCES RESULTS OF TALKS WITH NK," 09/12/98)
The DPRK said Thursday it would allow the US to visit a suspected
underground nuclear facility but said that the US would have to pay
compensation if the visit showed no wrongdoing. The statement by the
DPRK's UN mission came as a US official said the government was
considering an additional 300,000 tons of food relief to the DPRK despite
signs the country is undertaking an ambitious weapons buildup. The DPRK
statement, which followed seven rounds of talks held over the past two
weeks in New York, denied such a buildup. "If the US allegations are
proved groundless through a visit to the site, the US is obliged to make
appropriate compensation, particularly for slandering and disgracing (the
DPRK)," the statement said. It did not elaborate on what it meant by
compensation. In a separate statement carried by the DPRK's official
Korean Central News Agency, the DPRK also demanded US compensation for
"slander, insult and defamation" for accusing it of firing a ballistic
missile last week. (Korea Times, "NK: IT WILL ALLOW US VISITS TO
SUSPECTED UNDERGROUND SITE," 09/12/98)
1. Light-Water Reactor Project
The Yomiuri Shimbun ("GOVERNMENT TO RESUME KEDO PROJECT," 09/11/98)
reported that the Japanese government decided on September 10 to resume
its financial contribution to the light-water reactor project in early
October. The reasons for this decision include the government's
judgments that the maintenance of the Korean Peninsula Energy Development
Organization (KEDO) to prevent the DPRK from developing nuclear weapons
is in Japan's long-term interest and that both the US and the ROK are
expected to promote the project. The report added that the government
will set a target date for the resumption of the cost-sharing by watching
how the planned US-DPRK missile talks will go in October. The report
cited Prime Minister Keizo Obuchi as saying, "Regarding the preceding
counter measure we took against the DPRK's missile test, we are going to
consider whether to change or revise our policy toward the DPRK,"
suggesting that he may reconsider resuming the cost-sharing for KEDO.
The report also cited a high-ranking Foreign Ministry official as saying,
"It would be a disaster if we broke KEDO and the DPRK began developing
nukes."
2. Japanese-ROK Relations
The Nikkei Shimbun ("ROK PRESIDENT TO VISIT JAPAN ON OCTOBER 7,"
09/11/98) reported that the Japanese government decided to invite ROK
President Kim Dae-jung to Japan as a national guest from October 7 to 10.
President Kim will meet with the Emperor and Prime Minister Keizo Obuchi.
He will also give a speech at the Diet on October 8 and visit Osaka from
October 9 to 10.
3. ROK Unification Minister's Analysis of DPRK
The Sankei Shimbun (Katsuhiro Kuroda, "ROK UNIFICATION MINISTER SAYS THAT
SOUTH WILL NOT ENTER MILITARY RACE WITH NORTH BUT THAT MISSILE TEST
RAISES TENSIONS," 09/09/98) reported that ROK Unification Minister Kang
In-dok discussed the DPRK's constitutional change and Kim Jong-il's new
regime with reporters at the foreign reporters' club in Seoul on
September 8. Kang stated, "Although there is no change in their
fundamental policy, some change will occur in the economic realm,
including the limited introduction of a market mechanism, in order to
overcome the economic hardship." As for the Kim Jong-il regime's
emphasis on a "strong and prosperous" nation, he said, "'Strong' may mean
military build-up, including strengthening chemical weapons." With
regard to the DPRK's alleged ballistic missile test, he said, "Whether it
has a satellite-launching capability or not, it is a grave concern that
the North now has intermediate-long distance missile capability. The ROK
has already been within their missile target range, but our own missile
target range is restricted by our agreement with the US to 180
kilometers. If we were allowed to develop missiles more freely, it would
also be possible (for the DPRK to fall within our target range).
However, we are not going to ignore the agreement nor enter an arms race
with the North. We will cooperate with the US." As for the abolition of
the DPRK's Unification Committee that existed in the Supreme People's
Assembly, Kang pointed out that DPRK-ROK relations may be taken over by
the Workers' Party. Also, in light of the fact that Kim Jong-il's
becoming head of the National Defense Committee was proposed by both the
Central Committee and the Military Committee of the Workers' Party, Kang
said, "The party organization seems to be functioning." As for the
revised constitution, while some change can be seen in the economy,
including the extension of business and trade within the special economic
areas from the state itself to a "social cooperative group," Kang said,
"The DPRK's exchange with the South at the private level may expand out
of necessity." According to Kang, the DPRK's trade with the ROK last
year was US$300,000,000 with the DPRK's surplus more than US$130,000,000,
but the DPRK's trade in the first half of this year declined by
approximately 45 percent with the surplus down to less than US$2 million.
4. Japanese-Russian Relations
The Yomiuri Shimbun ("FOREIGN MINISTER'S VISIT TO RUSSIA TO BE
POSTPONED," 09/11/98) reported that the Japanese and Russian governments
decided on September 11 to postpone the visit by Japanese Foreign
Minister Komura to Russia. The fact that Yevgeny Primakov was not
approved as Prime Minister caused the decision, according to the report.
However, both governments also agreed to rearrange Prime Minister
Obuchi's official visit to Russia in November. The report added that
former Prime Minister Ryutaro Hashimoto will visit Russia to meet with
Russian President Boris Yeltsin on October 16 as scheduled. The report
cited Komura as saying, "The Japanese government understands Russia's
present situation in which Russia has no foreign minister now and they
just cannot arrange a Japan-Russia foreign ministerial meeting. I would
like to visit Russia as early as possible." The report also said that
Komura wants to discuss the date for his visit to Russia at a UN General
Assembly meeting in New York slated for late this month, when he would be
able to meet with Russia's new foreign minister.
1. US-DPRK Talks
The Korean Central News Agency ("DPRK MINISTRY SPOKESMAN ON US-DPRK
TALKS," Pyongyang, 09/10/98) reported that the DPRK Foreign Ministry
spokesman gave an interview Thursday on the results of DPRK-US high-level
talks in New York. The spokesman said, "the talks were held to solve the
grave problem caused by the U.S. side's long delay of the fulfillment of
its obligations under the 1994 DPRK-U.S. Framework Agreement. This year,
the U.S. has long failed to fulfill the program of light-water reactor
(LWR) project and supply of heavy oil because of opposition in the U.S.
Congress and the 'economic crisis' in member nations of the Korean
Peninsula Energy Development Organization (KEDO). This compelled the
DPRK to suspend the storage of spent fuel and make preparations for more
relevant measures. At the recent talks, the U.S. side admitted its
failure to fulfill the program of LWR project and supply of heavy oil,
reaffirmed its obligations under the framework agreement, and promised to
begin the supply of heavy oil due for this year in late September and
complete it by the end of the year, enter into the LWR project in real
earnest from November, hold negotiations for deleting the DPRK from the
list of 'terrorism sponsoring nations,' and lift sanctions. The U.S.
also promised to take positive measures for continued humanitarian
assistance. The two sides reached an agreement in a package form on
mutual pending issues such as the 'four-way talks' and missile talks. We
made it clear that the development, launch and use of satellites are
internationally recognized rights of a sovereign state for independence,
and agreed that the problem of the object 'suspected' by the U.S. side
should be settled through negotiations on condition that, in case the
object is civilian, the U.S. should compensate the DPRK for slander,
insult and defamation. At the talks, we emphasized that in case such an
incident occurs again, irrevocable consequences may arise. At the talks,
we made it clear that if the U.S. takes a step backward again in the
implementation of the framework agreement, we will take practical
measures to show that we cannot unilaterally sacrifice our own nuclear
power industry under the framework agreement. We will watch how the U.S.
side implements the agreement in the future."
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