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Northeast Asia Peace and Security Network DAILY REPORT For Tuesday, September 15, 1998, from Berkeley, California, USA |
1. DPRK Satellite Launch
US State Department Spokesman James Rubin ("STATE DEPARTMENT NOON
BRIEFING, SEPTEMBER 14," USIA Transcript, 09/14/98) said that, while US
analysis regarding the DPRK's August 31 launch continues, the US has
concluded that the DPRK did attempt to launch a very small satellite, but
that the satellite failed to achieve orbit. He added, "Nevertheless, the
North Koreans have demonstrated in this launch a capability to deliver a
weapons payload against surface targets at increasing ranges, confirming
the inherent capability to threaten its neighbors. So we regard this
missile as a threat to US allies, friends and forces in the region." He
added that, regardless of whether or not the launch was technically a
violation of Japanese airspace, "we do not want to see it happen again."
The New York Times (Steven Lee Myers, "U.S. CALLS NORTH KOREAN ROCKET A
FAILED SATELLITE," Washington, 09/15/98), the Associated Press (George
Gedda, "U.S.: N. KOREA SATELLITE FAILED," Washington, 09/14/98), Reuters,
"U.S. CONCLUDES N. KOREA TRIED TO LAUNCH SATELLITE," Washington,
09/14/98), and the Chicago Tribune (Michael A. Lev, "N. KOREA ROCKET
DETERMINED TO BE A FAILED SATELLITE LAUNCH," Tokyo, 09/15/98) reported
that US administration and defense officials said Monday that, although
the DPRK's August 31 rocket launch was apparently a failed attempt to
launch a satellite, it still demonstrates the DPRK's advance missile
capabilities. The officials said that the rocket had three stages, not
two, and that the final stage used solid fuel. They added that the third
stage of the rocket, which carried a small satellite, broke up somewhere
over the Pacific Ocean before reaching orbit. They said that the failure
of the satellite indicated that the DPRK has not yet mastered solid-fuel
technology, but the effort alone suggests that the DPRK's program might
be more ambitious and advanced than was widely believed. One anonymous
government official said Monday that if the DPRK perfected a third stage
in future tests, its missiles would have a range of 3,500 miles. Gary
Milhollin, director of the Wisconsin Project on Nuclear Arms Control,
said that the disclosures suggest that the DPRK is intent on building
intercontinental ballistic missiles. Milhollin stated, "I don't want to
sound alarmist, but that's where we are heading." Evan Medeiros, a
senior research assistant at the Center for Non-Proliferation Studies at
the Monterey Institute of International Affairs, said that the DPRK is
"trying to change the perception of what this is, but the hard-core
reality is it demonstrates a more significant missile capability than
previously understood." Meanwhile in Tokyo, Japanese Vice Foreign
Minister Shunji Yanai said that "whether it was a missile or a satellite,
our concerns remain unchanged from the standpoints of peace and stability
in Northeast Asia."
The Associated Press ("N. KOREA'S LAUNCH MAY HAVE BEEN A SATELLITE -
RUSSIAN OFFCL," Moscow, 09/15/98) reported that the Interfax news agency
quoted Gennady Khromov, a senior expert with Russia's Space Agency, as
saying on Tuesday that Russian experts are still not sure if the DPRK
launched a ballistic missile or a satellite as it claimed. Khromov said
that the object did not emit any signals, and its weight of only 28.6
pounds complicated identification. Meanwhile Alexander Pikayev, an
analyst at the Moscow office of the Carnegie Endowment for Peace, called
for improving ties with the DPRK to prevent unexpected actions on its
part. Pikayev stated, "A number of countries, including Russia, the
United States, Japan and China, have found themselves in a zone
controlled by missiles launched by a half-starved nation."
2. DPRK Missile Development
The Wall Street Journal (Robert S. Greenberger and Carla Anne Robbins,
"U.S. ANALYSIS SUGGESTS NORTH KOREA IS CLOSE TO HAVING A LONG-RANGE
MISSILE," Washington, 09/15/98) reported that unnamed senior US officials
said that US analysis of the DPRK's recent launch suggests that the DPRK
is closer to developing a longer-range missile that could reach as far as
Alaska than expected. However, the officials said that the immediate
impact would be slight as the DPRK's missile program is plagued with
technical problems. They added that any payload that the DPRK could send
over that distance would be far too small to pose any military threat to
the US. One senior official stated, "Because of the crude nature of the
technology ... they couldn't launch a real payload that far." He added
that the third stage of the DPRK rocket blew up. Another senior official
stated, "If the third stage hadn't broken apart and if they tried to use
it as a missile ... it could perhaps reach Alaska. That's a lot of ifs,
but it's also a lot longer than we expected."
US Secretary of Defense William Cohen ("SEC. COHEN MEETS WITH JAPAN DIET
MEMBERS," Washington, USIA Transcript, 09/14/98) told visiting Japanese
Diet members on Monday that the US has been disturbed by the recent
missile tests on part of the DPRK. Cohen stated, "Any threat to Japan's
security is also a threat to America. So, we intend to work very closely
with our strong allies in dealing with this particular issue. We hope
that we can cooperate on theater missile defense issues, exchange
information and perhaps cooperate in other ways."
3. US-Japan-ROK Policy toward DPRK
US State Department Spokesman James Rubin ("STATE DEPARTMENT NOON
BRIEFING, SEPTEMBER 14," USIA Transcript, 09/14/98) said that US, ROK,
and Japanese officials met in Washington Monday to continue coordinating
policy discussions on the DPRK. Rubin stated, "We will coordinate on all
North Korean issues, including its recent missile test, which is a
priority concern for all three governments." He added that the US would
not object to a Japanese decision to launch a spy satellite to more
closely monitor the DPRK. He stated, "Given that they're allies, I
wouldn't expect us to have a problem." Rubin said that the US believes
it is important to fund the Korean Peninsula Energy Development
Organization to prevent the "very sobering prospect" of a nuclear-armed
DPRK.
4. Alleged DPRK-Pakistan Missile Cooperation
US State Department Spokesman James Rubin ("STATE DEPARTMENT NOON
BRIEFING, SEPTEMBER 14," USIA Transcript, 09/14/98) said that it is known
that the DPRK has marketed its missile technology and equipment
worldwide, including to Pakistan. He stated, "The United States takes
this matter very seriously and has been addressing it." He added, "In
April of this year, we imposed sanctions on North Korean and Pakistani
entities for their involvement in transferring from North Korea to
Pakistan items controlled under Category I of the Missile Technology
Control Regime related specifically to the Ghauri missile. The
sanctioned entities are the Changgwang Sinyoung Corporation of North
Korea and the Khan Research laboratories of Pakistan." Rubin also noted
that "Pakistan has announced that the Ghauri has a payload of some 700
kilograms and a range of 1500 kilometers ... and the parameters,
therefore, described by Pakistan are consistent with our understanding of
the parameters of North Korea's No Dong missile."
5. ROK Economic Crisis
Dow Jones Newswires (Cecilia M. Kang, "IMF'S NEISS SAYS KOREA GDP MAY
CONTRACT BY 6% THIS YEAR," Seoul, 09/15/98) reported that International
Monetary Fund Asia-Pacific Director Hubert Neiss said Tuesday that the
ROK economy will contract this year by as much as 6 percent before
turning around next year and resuming "normal growth" by the year 2000.
Neiss said that the ROK has overcome the first stage of its crisis,
evidenced in the country's higher foreign currency reserves and lower
inflation, but that it now has to focus on corporate and financial
reforms to draw itself out of its recession.
6. PRC-Taiwan Talks
The Associated Press ("CHINA TO DISCUSS TAIWAN TALKS," Taipei, 09/15/98)
reported that the PRC's Association for Relations Across the Taiwan
Straits said in a letter on Tuesday that it will host Taiwan's Koo Chen-
fun when he visits Beijing and Shanghai October 14-19. The letter said
that Koo, chairman of the semiofficial Straits Exchange Foundation, may
hold a news conference and meet with Taiwanese investors. The PRC also
announced it has agreed to allow lower-level officials from each side to
meet and discuss details of Koo's visit. Taiwanese Premier Vincent Siew
praised the letter, saying, "I hope this meeting will point the two
sides' dialogue in the right direction and lend it substantive
significance."
7. Taiwan Entry into UN
The Associated Press ("TAIWAN FAILS TO GET ON U.N. AGENDA," United
Nations, 09/14/98) reported that UN spokeswoman Jadranka Mihalic said
Monday that a UN General Assembly committee decided on Friday not to
include the issue of Taiwan's status on the UN agenda. Eleven countries,
led by Nicaragua, had asked that the status of Taiwan be considered on
the General Assembly's agenda.
8. PRC Human Rights
Reuters (Scott Hillis, "CHINA TO SIGN POLITICAL RIGHTS PACT," Beijing,
09/15/98) and the Washington Post (Michael Laris, "U.N. OFFICIAL
HEARTENED BY CHINA VISIT," Beijing, 09/15/98, A16) reported that UN High
Commissioner for Human Rights Mary Robinson said Tuesday that PRC Vice-
Premier Qian Qichen pledged Monday to sign the UN International Covenant
on Civil and Political Rights next month. While Robinson declared her
mission to the PRC "successful," she added that the PRC had "very
serious" human rights problems. PRC Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhu
Bangzao also termed Robinson's visit a success and said that the PRC had
reacted "positively" to her suggestions. However, pro-democracy
campaigner Xu Wenli called Robinson's visit a failure, citing the
detention of the wife of a jailed labor activist and the harassment of
dissidents as proof that she failed to make an impact.
9. Indian Adherence to CTBT
The Associated Press ("INDIA SLOWLY MOVING TOWARD SIGNING TEST BAN
TREATY," New Delhi, 09/15/98) reported that Indian officials said that
they are trying to build a national consensus before the country signs
the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT). Political observer K.
Subrahmanyan, writing in the Times of India on Monday, said that, in
return for signing the treaty, India must get access to nuclear
technology it can use for its energy programs. However, Achin Vanaik of
the Movement in India for Nuclear Disarmament stated, "India is not
joining the CTBT out of some deep commitment to joining the forces of
disarmament, but because it sees that as the only way of legitimizing
what it has done." He added that whatever its reasons for doing so,
signing the CTBT will subject India to international checks to ensure it
moves no closer to developing a nuclear arsenal.
10. Pakistani Adherence to CTBT
Reuters (Tahir Ikram, "OPPOSITION DEFIES PAKISTAN'S GOVERNMENT ABOUT
NUCLEAR TREATY," Islamabad, 09/15/98) reported that Pakistan's opposition
parties on Tuesday refused to take part in a parliamentary debate on
whether Pakistan should sign the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT),
saying the government had already made up its mind to do so. Senator
Ajmal Khattak, leader of the regional Awami National Party, stated, "We
are not willing to become part of the government drama on CTBT." He
argued, "The government is not forthcoming in telling us what kind of
deal it has been offered to sign the treaty." Aitezaz Ahsan, former
interior minister and leader of the opposition in the upper house, added,
"Nor has it confided in the opposition about the implications of the
treaty." Ajmal Dehlvi from the opposition Muttahida National Movement
stated, "Not a single patriotic member of this house will be willing to
sign the treaty. [Prime Minister Nawaz] Sharif should not sign it or
else the beginning of his end will start." However, Senator Iqbal Haider
stated, "In principle, we are not against signing the CTBT but it is the
terms and conditions of signing the treaty that we are opposed to."
The Associated Press (Kathy Gannon, "PAKISTAN SCHOOL RESISTS NUKE
TREATY," Islamabad, 09/15/98) reported that Dar-ul-Aloom Haqqania
University, a leading religious university in Pakistan, warned in a
decree Tuesday that it would launch a holy war against the government if
it signs the CTBT. The decree stated, "All Muslims were bound to
struggle against and resist those willing to support the treaty." The
university said that signing the treaty would leave Pakistan at a
military disadvantage against India. Pakistan Minister of State for
Foreign Affairs Siddiq Kanju said that no decision had been made on
whether to sign the treaty.
11. Global Land Mine Ban
The Associated Press ("TREATY BANNING LAND MINES LIKELY TO BE RATIFIED,
U.N. SAYS," United Nations, 09/14/98) reported that UN spokesman Fred
Eckhard said Monday that the international treaty banning anti-personnel
land mines is expected to go into effect this week if it has the
necessary 40 countries ratifying the accord. Eckhard said that Macedonia
became the 38th nation to ratify the treaty, "so we're expecting that
event to happen some day this week." A UNICEF spokeswoman said that
Namibia, Spain, and Sao Tome and Principe were expected to be the 39th,
40th and 41st countries. Their governments have ratified the accord, but
the paperwork has yet to be formally turned over to the UN.
12. US Military Exercises in the Philippines
The Associated Press (Jim Gomez, "PHILIPPINE-U.S. ACCORD PROTESTED,"
Manila, 09/15/98) reported that hundreds of activists held marches
Tuesday to protest the Visiting Forces Agreement, which would allow
large-scale US and Philippine military exercises and provide legal
protection for US soldiers on duty in the country. US and Philippine
officials have signed the accord, but the Philippine Senate has yet to
ratify it. Sonia Soto, a leader of the protesters, stated, "The pullout
of American troops should be irreversible. We're warning the public that
the government is laying the ground for their return."
1. ROK Missile Defense
ROK Defense Minister Chun Yong-taek on Monday expressed his preference
for US made Patriot anti-aircraft missiles as replacements for the ROK's
aging Nike missiles. Minister Chun said, "If we select a replacement for
the Nikes, the first thing we have to consider is 'inter-operability'
with our existing weaponry. In addition, we have to ensure that we are
guaranteed emergency supplies of parts in a time of conflict." Chun made
the remarks when asked about the viability of the nation's anti-missile
defense system against the increasing threat posed by DPRK missiles. The
Patriot's main competitor in the contest to be adopted as the ROK's new
surface-to-air missile is Russia's S-300. Both types of missile are
capable of hitting incoming targets. However, Chun added that it will
not be possible for the ROK to initiate the SAM-X project until next year
due to budgetary constraints. The ROK minister also admitted that the
ROK is in the early stages of developing a missile interceptor. Chun
denied, however, that the ROK is seeking Russia's help in developing a
missile that will replace its existing Hawks, which have a striking range
of 40 to 60 kilometers. Asked whether the DPRK conducted a satellite
launch or missile test-firing on August 31, Chun stated tersely that it
was a missile. His remarks were in contrast to senior government
officials' assertions that the projectile was more likely a rocket launch
that went awry. As for the threat the DPRK's missiles pose to the rest
of the world, Chun downplayed the threat, claiming that the DPRK's
missiles have poor accuracy. (Korea Times, "SAM-X PROGRAM TO BE DELAYED
UNTIL 2000," 09/15/98)
1. Repercussions of DPRK Missile Test
Segodnya's Pavel Felgengauer ("KOREAN SATELLITE CHANGES THE GLOBAL POWER
SITUATION," Moscow, 3, 09/08/98) commented on the DPRK satellite
launching. In his opinion, the US knew about the medium range two-stage
missile being created in the DPRK, but was not aware of its outer space
capabilities, unable to believe that a half-starved nation might become
another outer space power. Thus the US has forgotten the lessons of
history, exemplified by their unpreparedness to the first Soviet
satellite in 1957 and first Soviet man in space in 1961. This past May,
with India and Pakistan having conducted their tests, the world nuclear
weapons "non-proliferation regime collapsed. Now the same fate has
befallen the missile technologies non-proliferation regime." Segodnya's
author stressed that "it is North Korea, not Russia, that earnestly helps
Iran to create missile weapons. Soon Iran and any Third World country
will be able to buy an intercontinental missile capable of 'reaching' any
city in Europe and North America. The matter is that Pyongyang has to
feed its population somehow." Segodnya's author suggested a possible
future scenario: The US no doubt would start deploying their own national
anti-missile defense (AMD) and quit the AMD Treaty of 1972. The RF would
then never ratify the Treaty on strategic weapons and would continue
deployment of its "Topol-M" missile complexes specifically designed to
break AMD systems. If a government comes to power in the RF again unable
to feed its population, then the RF might start selling abroad some
previously secret weapon technologies. Then the RF could well outstrip
both the DPRK and even the PRC in the emerging market by putting on sale
its systems capable of dealing with any AMD systems.
Izvestia's Ivan Denisov ("PYONGYANG HAS BROKEN THROUGH INTO THE OUTER
SPACE," Moscow, 3, 09/08/98) reported that the Outer Space Objects
Monitoring System of the RF officially confirmed the launching of a
satellite by the DPRK on 08/31/98. The US, Japan, and the ROK are
skeptical, but US officials "do not rule out a possibility that the task
of the missile test was to launch a satellite into orbit."
Nezavisimaia gazeta's Mikhail Paison ("A SUCCESS OF THE NORTH KOREAN
MISSILE PROGRAM," Moscow, 2, 09/08/98) commented on the DPRK satellite
launching by saying, in particular, that DPRK missiles are "descendants"
of Soviet "Scud" missiles. It added that the prevention of emigration of
over 60 Russian missile engineers at the Moscow international airport in
October of 1992 and the consequent expelling of a DPRK diplomat with the
rank of general from Moscow are a good illustration of the present-day
DPRK statements about the "one hundred percent domestic" nature of its
missile efforts.
Izvestia's Viktor Litovkin ("PYONGYANG LAUNCHED A 'DUCK', NOT A
SATELLITE," Moscow, 3, 09/10/98) reported that one of the commanders of
the RF Strategic Purpose Missile Forces, who preferred to stay anonymous,
told Izvestia that "there is no North Korean satellite in outer space
above the planet Earth." The SPMF is the only body in the RF capable of
monitoring outer space, and it daily monitors over 7,000 natural and
artificial objects with reflective space over 10 square centimeters. In
general there are about 30,000 such objects. Only the US and the RF
possess full catalogues of those and appropriate identification
technologies. The commander said that among those 30,000 there is not a
single one transmitting such songs as "Marshal Kim Il-sung" or "General
Kim Jong-il." He said that his colleagues and he kept silent for some
time because they were confused by mass media referring to diplomatic
sources and even the US National Aeronautics and Space Administration.
RF military consultations with their US counterparts took time and now
"our generals feel uncomfortable" to make official statements. In the
commander's words, the DPRK, by testing its missile without prior
notification, broke international rules and therefore decided to resort
to a "propaganda trick" with its alleged outer space satellite launching.
"Hysteria" in neighboring countries also played up to the "panic rumors."
The developments also should be seen in the context of international
military commercial rivalries regarding Japan's and the ROK's future
choice of equipment for their anti-aircraft and anti-missile defenses, in
which the RF arms-makers also participate with their S-300PMU-2 and S-
300V systems.
2. Kim Jong-il's Ascension
Nezavisimaia gazeta's Fyodor Ivanov ("KIM JONG IL BECAME THE HEAD OF THE
DPRK," Moscow, 6, 09/08/98) reported that, according to a September 5
press release from the DPRK Embassy in Moscow, the deputies at the first
session of the Supreme People's Assembly of the DPRK elected Kim Jong-il
as Chairman of the DPRK National Defense Committee, which is the supreme
official position of leadership over political, military, and economic
affairs of the country in general.
Izvestia's Yuriy Savenkov ("KIM JONG IL DID NOT BECOME THE PRESIDENT, BUT
RETAINS THE SUPREME AUTHORITY," Moscow, 3, 09/09/98) reported that
"Pyongyang ... once again put to shame all analysts who forecast the
naming of Kim Jong-il ... as the President of the country." Kim Jong-il
last year became the General Secretary of the Korean Worker's Party. By
this September's session of the Supreme People's Assembly, he was already
the Head of the DPRK Defense Committee, but the significant matter is
that at the last session this position was proclaimed "the supreme
position of the state." Izvestia's author wondered if that development
meant a revocation of the Presidency in the DPRK, noting that there has
been no confirmation regarding that. The lack of a presidential
inauguration, in RF experts' opinions, does not mean any attempt to
undermine Kim Jong-il's authority. On the contrary, the whole DPRK
administrative system is adjusted to his personality. It is believed
that psychologically he evidently prefers a hermit's way of life, lacking
his father's charisma.
3. Political Opposition in the PRC
Izvestia's Yuriy Savenkov ("CHINA MIGHT LEGALIZE OPPOSITION," Moscow, 3,
09/12/98) reported that, according to Frank Lu, a representative of the
Hong Kong Information Center of the Movement for Human Rights and
Democracy in China, said that the PRC might let its dissenters form an
opposition party. According to Lu, an official of the registration
department in Zinan in the eastern part of the PRC told two dissenters
trying to legalize the Chinese Democratic party that the PRC Government
is considering the possibility of its registration. In general, however,
no fundamental political changes are expected to take place soon in the
PRC, as its leaders being too busy with structural economic reforms.
4. PRC-Japan Economic Talks
Izvestia's Aleksandr Platkovskiy ("JAPAN HOPES FOR CHINA'S HELP,"
Beijing, 3, 09/15/98) reported on talks in Beijing between Sun Zhenyu,
PRC Deputy Minister of Foreign Trade, and Koichi Haraguchi, Japanese
Deputy Foreign Minister. Izvestia's author said that by sending Mr.
Haraguchi to the PRC, Japan actually has admitted that "without China
there could be no way out of the present financial crisis." A
devaluation of yuan resulting from the yen's exchange rate fall would
strike a devastating blow to Japan from which it would not recover, while
the global financial system would disintegrate into autarchic parts.
5. RF Cabinet Changes
Nezavisimaia gazeta's Dmitriy Kosyrev ("AN OFFICIAL IN THE HIGHEST SENSE
OF THE WORD," Moscow, 1-2, 09/15/98) reported that "the lightning-fast
appointment" of Igor Ivanov, First Deputy Foreign Minister of the RF till
last Friday, as RF Foreign Minister testifies to at least to two things:
new RF Premier Yevgeniy Primakov "obviously will for some time retain an
increased control over foreign affairs, and his decisions in this sphere
(even that of appointment of the RF Foreign Minister, which lies within
RF President's competence) are not contended by anybody. Secondly,
Ivanov, the Foreign Ministry's 'shadow figure,' will have to get
acquainted with the unusual role as fast as possible." From the very
start it was clear that any "political appointment" (like Vladimir Lukin,
for example) was out of question. For several years Igor Ivanov has
actually been running "the whole diplomatic household." No department
heads at the Foreign Ministry have been appointed without his
involvement. "One can say that all key diplomats are 'his people'
presently." Sometimes up to 900 documents a day passed through his
hands.
Segodya's Georgiy Bovt ("ONE'S OWN CADRES DETERMINE EVERYTHING," Moscow,
2, 09/15/98) and Nezavisimaia gazeta's Marina Volkova ("FIRST SESSION OF
PRIMAKOV'S GOVERNMENT," Moscow, 1, 09/15/98) reported that Yevgeniy
Primakov, new Premier of the RF, held the first session of his Government
in camera. Nothing was revealed about any decisions taken there. So far
there's been no key personnel changes in the Government, with two
exceptions. Robert Markaryan, who worked together with Yevgeniy Primakov
at the Institute of World Economy and International Relations of the
Soviet Academy of Sciences, the RF Foreign Intelligence Service, and the
RF Foreign Ministry, now has become the head of the Prime Minister's
Secretariat. Yuriy Zubakov, Vice Admiral, who was a Deputy of Yevgeniy
Primakov both at the FIS and the Foreign Ministry, where he ran the
consulate and personnel affairs departments, now has become the Head of
the Administrative Staff of the RF Cabinet of Ministers.
6. RF Pacific History Commemoration
Sovetskaya Rossiya ("350 YEARS AGO COSSACKS CAME TO THE PACIFIC OCEAN,"
Vladivostok, 4, 09/10/98) reported that in Vladivostok, the Cossack
Troops of Ussuriysk and Khabarovsk celebrated the 350th anniversary of
Russian Cossacks coming to the Pacific shores for the first time. There
are plans to establish a permanent museum dedicated to the subject in
Vladivostok.
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