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Northeast Asia Peace and Security Network DAILY REPORT For Wednesday, September 16, 1998, from Berkeley, California, USA |
1. DPRK Satellite Launch
US Defense Department Spokesman Kenneth Bacon ("PENTAGON REGULAR
BRIEFING, TUESDAY, SEPTEMBER 15," USIA Transcript, 09/15/98) said that,
while the US is still analyzing the information regarding the DPRK's
August 31 rocket launch, it now believes that the DPRK attempted to
launch a satellite and failed. He said that the significant revelations
from this effort were that the DPRK launched a multi-stage missile and
was able to get the stages to separate, and that the third stage of the
missile apparently was a solid fuel missile. Bacon stated, "When you add
those two factors up, it means that they are experimenting with missiles,
they have gone some way down toward developing a missile with a much
longer range capability." He added, "Having said all of that, it's
necessary to stress again what I started with, that their effort to
launch a satellite failed and the launch did not work as planned so they
clearly have some problems they have to overcome. We will be watching
their efforts, if any, to overcome those problems very carefully." He
noted, "We're talking about quite a small third stage without a lot of
propellant capacity or capability." He noted that the rocket launch
demonstrated a potential for future missile developments "that could be
approaching intercontinental ballistic missile range." He added that the
launch was "not a third missile under development that we weren't aware
of. I think the important point here is this missile was derivative of
missiles they've had for some time." He said that the US expected the
DPRK to test a longer-range missile, but that the launch "failed to
achieve what they set out to achieve." He added that while an attempt to
launch a satellite is "less worrisome than a point to point test ... the
fact of the matter is that it does display some enhanced capability or an
intent to develop an enhanced capability on the part of the North
Koreans." Bacon pointed out that the 1994 Agreed Framework does not
cover missiles, and that the US believes that the DPRK is adhering to the
agreement.
US State Department Spokesman James Rubin ("STATE DEPARTMENT NOON
BRIEFING, SEPTEMBER 15," USIA Transcript, 09/15/98) said that the US has
been monitoring the DPRK's efforts to develop longer- range missiles
since the 1980s. He stated, "This is a development that worries us, that
concerns us, given North Korea's behavior in the past. Given their
proclivity to sell such equipment to the highest bidder, we have concerns
and we regard it [as] dangerous, as does Japan." He added, "In the early
1990s we identified a two-stage missile under development that we called
the Taepodong I. On August 31st the North Koreans attempted to place a
very small satellite into orbit with what appeared to be a Taepodong I
with a third stage. Although the launch of the missile was expected for
some time, its use with the third stage and the attempt to orbit a very
small satellite was not." Rubin said, "Regardless of the range that this
missile could fly or the question of whether it had a third stage for the
purpose of satellite, the fact that that are working on such a long-range
missile capability -- in the range of over 1500 kilometers -- is a worry
to us.... On the other hand, some of the suggestion that this means that
they have a long-range missile capable of attacking the United States we
think is significantly overstated." He argued, "To show that they would
have a capability able to threaten the United States, they would have to
demonstrate two things to us that they have not yet done: one, that
they've mastered the problems of a third stage bearing in mind that this
third stage broke up during the test; and two, that they've mastered the
unique, daunting challenges of a re-entry vehicle launched to ranges in
the 5,000-kilometer range, re-entering the Earth's atmosphere and hitting
a target without burning up, all of which is an extremely difficult
exercise, which they didn't even try to do." Rubin added, "To the extent
that North Korea is spending its scarce resources on these dangerous
missile programs, we want to sit down at the table and talk to them about
restraints not only on their indigenous missiles, but on those they would
be prepared to sell as part of our goal to do what we reasonably can do
to stop the spread of dangerous missiles and weaponry around the world."
White House Press Secretary Mike McCurry ("WHITE HOUSE DAILY BRIEFING,
SEPTEMBER 15, 1998," USIA Transcript, 09/15/98) said that the DPRK's
recent attempted satellite launch is a serious matter, and the US intends
to pursue it in its discussions with the DPRK regarding missile
technology. McCurry added, however, "I think that for us to see a
proximate threat about the military capacity of the missile that would be
launched, the North Koreans would have had to demonstrate two things that
are not yet evidenced to us. First, they would have had to master the
problems of dealing with third-stage technology, and there is some
evidence that this third stage broke up. Two, they would have to master
the unique and fairly daunting challenges of returning a re-entry vehicle
back to land, re-entering the Earth atmosphere to hit a target without
burning up. And given what they attempted to do, we don't think that
that's something that was in the scope or parameters of the current
program."
2. Implementation of Agreed Framework
The Associated Press (Tom Raum, "GOP TURNS UP HEAT ON FOREIGN POLICY,"
Washington, 09/16/98) reported that the US House of Representatives
Appropriations Committee voted to drop US$35 million in funding for fuel
oil for the DPRK from a foreign aid bill. Representative David Obey, D-
Wis., said of the vote, "This is mindbogglingly reckless."
US State Department Spokesman James Rubin ("STATE DEPARTMENT NOON
BRIEFING, SEPTEMBER 15," USIA Transcript, 09/15/98) said that the US and
the DPRK plan to hold a meeting, which has yet to be scheduled, regarding
the implementation of the 1994 Agreed Framework. Rubin added, "The
purpose of the meeting on implementation of the Agreed Framework is to
discuss our insistence on getting access to potential, suspicious nuclear
well, definitely suspicious nuclear facilities. We want to get access to
those sites and they understand what we want. The meeting, when it is
scheduled, would be designed to set a process in train by which we could
get such access." Rubin also said that the US, the ROK, and Japan met
Monday to discuss the continued funding of the Korean Peninsula Energy
Development Organization (KEDO) and other issues relating to the DPRK.
Rubin stated that there was no outcome from the talks, adding, "What they
are doing is talking through the issues in preparation for this
trilateral meeting of Secretary Albright and the South Korean and
Japanese Foreign Ministers." He said that the US has made a commitment
to try to put KEDO back on track. Rubin stated, "It's up to the Japanese
to describe their position on this; but we fully expect that everyone
will get together and get this project implemented, provided the North
Koreans abide by the agreement, because we all share the same goal. The
same goal is to make sure that North Korea doesn't become a nuclear
threat to East Asia or the world."
3. UN Response to DPRK Rocket Launch
The Associated Press (Sau Chan, "U.N. URGES AGAINST N.KOREA LAUNCHES,"
United Nations, 09/15/98) and Reuters (Anthony Goodman, "U.N. COUNCIL
REGRETS N.KOREA'S RECENT TEST LAUNCH," United Nations, 09/15/98) reported
that the UN Security Council on Tuesday expressed regret that the DPRK
carried out its recent launch without notifying the countries of the
region. A statement read by council President Hans Dahlgren of Sweden
said, "The Security Council members consider that such an activity on the
part of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea poses harm to the
fishing and shipping activities in the region and runs counter to the
promotion of confidence among the countries in the region." The
statement appealed to the DPRK "to refrain from such activities." It
also called on all countries concerned in the region to show restraint
and refrain from any action that might lead to increased tension. It
also recognized "the legitimate right of any state to develop space
programs for peaceful purposes, provided that they are transparent and
compatible with" international safety norms. Japanese UN ambassador
Hisashi Owada said that Japan had "no intention whatsoever to take any
confrontational position" regarding the DPRK. He stated, "The purpose of
bringing this matter to the Security Council is for the Security Council
to take a firm and clear position on the issues involved in a correct
way, so that there is not going to be a recurrence of events which could
exacerbate the situation."
4. DPRK-Japan Relations
Reuters ("JAPAN WILL NOT REVIEW MEASURES AGAINST N.KOREA," Tokyo,
09/16/98) reported that Japanese Foreign Minister Masahiko Komura said on
Wednesday that Japan had no plans to review the measures it has taken
against the DPRK for its recent rocket launch. Komura stated, "Whether
or not a satellite was attached to it, the rocket was launched and flew
over Japan. What's more, they did it without advance warning and
notice."
The Associated Press ("N. KOREA WARNS JAPAN ON ROCKETS," Tokyo, 09/16/98)
reported that the DPRK's Korean Central News Agency on Tuesday carried a
statement by the Foreign Ministry warning Japan that any attempt to use
the DPRK's recent rocket launch as a pretext to revive militarism will
have "catastrophic" consequences. The statement said that relations
between the countries have deteriorated to the point of placing them "on
the verge of war." A radio broadcast monitored in Japan said that the
DPRK intends to develop a commercial satellite for sale abroad. It
stated, "Starting with the food problem, we must solve our economic
problems alone ... by aggressively progressing in the global advanced
technology market which includes commercial satellite launches."
5. ROK-Japan Relations
The Associated Press ("S. KOREA LEADER SEEKS JAPAN APOLOGY," Tokyo,
09/16/98) reported that Kim Suk-kyu, ROK ambassador to Japan, said that
the ROK is hoping for an apology for Japan's colonial rule of Korea when
ROK President Kim Dae-jung visits Japan next month. Ambassador Kim
stated, "To put it simply, the South Korean people were victims. He
added that President Kim "is hoping Japan will offer a heartfelt apology
and reflect on its history."
6. US-Japan Talks
US Defense Department Spokesman Kenneth Bacon ("PENTAGON REGULAR
BRIEFING, TUESDAY, SEPTEMBER 15," USIA Transcript, 09/15/98) said that US
Secretary of Defense William Cohen and Secretary of State Madeleine
Albright will meet their Japanese counterparts on Saturday in New York.
Bacon said that the two sides "will talk about general security issues.
They will certainly talk about regional issues. They'll talk about the
importance of moving forward with work in Japan on the defense
guidelines, full implementation of the defense guidelines which have been
negotiated and agreed to by the two sides." He added, "I'm sure they'll
also talk about theater missile defense and some of the challenges posed
by developments on the Korean Peninsula."
7. US-PRC Military Talks
US Defense Department Spokesman Kenneth Bacon ("PENTAGON REGULAR
BRIEFING, TUESDAY, SEPTEMBER 15," USIA Transcript, 09/15/98) said that US
Secretary of Defense William Cohen and PRC Defense Minister Zhang Wannian
met Tuesday to discuss the DPRK's missile development, among other
issues. He added, "They also talked about the importance of maintaining
the framework agreement which is designed to stop the North Koreans from
restarting a nuclear program. General Zhang said that China had a strong
commitment to stability on the Korean Peninsula and in the region as a
whole. He repeated his earlier statement that China is adamantly opposed
to nuclear weapons on the Korean Peninsula." Regarding Taiwan, Bacon
said that General Zhang said that the US-PRC relationship hinges on the
proper handling of the Taiwan situation. He added, "Secretary Cohen
pointed out that the United States has a one China policy and that part
of that policy calls for the peaceful resolution of differences about
Taiwan."
The New York Times ("U.S., CHINA SOLIDIFY PLANS FOR MILITARY EXERCISES,"
Washington, 09/16/98) reported that US Secretary of Defense William Cohen
and his PRC Defense Minister Zhang Wannian agreed Tuesday that the PRC
would move ahead with modest joint military exercises and exchanges with
the US next year. Cohen announced that PRC officers would take part in
exercises in 1999 simulating military responses to natural disasters or
humanitarian crises and would send a naval ship to visit the US. The two
men also agreed to a series of exchanges of military students and
officers.
US Secretary of Defense William Cohen and PRC Defense Minister Zhang
Wannian ("JOINT STATEMENT ON MILITARY ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION," USIA
Text, Washington, 09/15/98) issued a joint statement which said that the
US Department of Defense (DOD) and the PRC Ministry of National Defense
(MND) have agreed to cooperate on military environmental protection. The
statement said, "The US DOD and China's MND intend to exchange technical
representative groups to study military environmental protection, and
intend to discuss signing a technical document on exchange of information
on military environmental protection."
8. ROK-DPRK Sports Exchanges
Reuters (Mark Dake, "IOC TO SEND ENVOY TO NORTH KOREA TO SPUR TIES,"
Seoul, 09/16/98) reported that the International Olympic Committee (IOC)
said it would send IOC executive board member Thomas Bach of Germany to
the DPRK on Friday to initiate friendly sports exchanges between the ROK
and the DPRK. Bach will hold talks until September 21 with the DPRK's
National Olympic Committee (NOC) in Pyongyang. Bach said at an IOC
meeting in Seoul Wednesday that the trip had been planned for some time
under the framework of the Olympic Solidarity movement, but the idea to
discuss inter-Korean sports exchanges was a recent one, urged by IOC
president Juan Antonio Samaranch. He stated, "Mr. Samaranch thought it
would be a good idea to follow up the invitation with talks to get the
two Koreas together in friendly sports." He added, "We are open, we are
ready to organize the competition at any place in the world. Lausanne
would be an ideal place. We'll see if we can get an agreement in
principle." Kim Un-yong, ROK Olympic Committee president and IOC
executive board member, said he was surprised and pleased that Bach would
be talking with the DPRK's NOC. He added that the two Korean Olympic
committees had had good ties for years.
9. South Asian Nuclear Tests
The Los Angeles Times (Robert Lee Hotz, "PAKISTAN, INDIA NUCLEAR CLAIMS
CALLED INFLATED BY TIMES SCIENCE WRITER," 09/16/98) reported that Terry
Wallace, an expert at the University of Arizona on the use of seismology
to analyze nuclear explosions, published a paper in Seismological
Research Letters which claims that both India and Pakistan exaggerated
the number and size of their nuclear tests earlier this year. Wallace's
study concluded that two of the five nuclear explosions announced by the
Indian government may never have taken place, while only two in the
series of nuclear tests that the Pakistan government announced actually
involved real nuclear explosions. Based on his analysis of data from 22
seismic monitoring stations around the world, Wallace determined that the
May 11 explosions in India had a combined force of no more than 15
kilotons. He noted, "Conventional wisdom states that 10 to 15 kilotons
would be too small to have been a full test of a thermonuclear weapon."
He added that there is no seismic evidence that the May 13 nuclear
explosions announced by India took place at all. He calculated that the
Pakistani explosions involved bombs that totaled only 9 to 12 kilotons in
the first round of tests on May 28 and 4 to 6 kilotons in the second on
May 30. Wallace stated, "This is quite clearly a case where governments
tested for a political reason rather than scientific reasons, so we have
to be suspicious of what they say." One anonymous US State Department
official responded, "We were suspicious from the beginning about the
claims by both countries." He added, however, "We won't argue with
experts like these about the number of tests. What is important to us is
that there were tests by both sides. That's the issue we're trying to
deal with." Geophysicist Hans Hartse at Los Alamos in New Mexico said of
the study, "Essentially my view and the view of my colleagues here is
that it is well-grounded work. We find it all perfectly acceptable and
tend to be in agreement." Princeton University physicist Frank von
Hippel said that the study "seems pretty convincing to me." However, Los
Alamos geophysicist Alan Cogbill stated, "Seismologically, all we can
make is a statement about the yield of an explosion and its location. We
can't make an inference about the type of explosion it might have been."
Similarly, Physicist Ray E. Kidder, a former weapons designer at the
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, said that despite the relatively
small yield of the Indian blast, it could have been the product of a
thermonuclear device.
10. Indian Adherence to CTBT
The Associated Press ("INDIA WANTS NUCLEAR-ENERGY TECH FOR SIGNING TEST-
BAN TREATY," Madras, 09/16/98) and Reuters (Suresh Seshadri, "INDIA'S
VAJPAYEE SEEKS ACCOMMODATION OVER CTBT," Madras, 09/16/98) reported that
Indian Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee said Wednesday that, in
exchange for signing the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty, India wants
greater access to dual-use nuclear-energy technology. Vajpayee stated,
"I know the treaty is not going to be changed. But certain other
arrangements will be made to facilitate our work ... particularly with
regard to transfer of high technology. We are having talks [with the US]
on this and other fronts." He added, "Whatever data we required we have
collected; there is no need for any further tests. That is one of the
reasons why our attitude (toward the treaty) has changed."
11. India-PRC Spying Row
The Associated Press (Kishore Pathania, "SUSPECTED SPIES ARRESTED IN
INDIA," Chandigarh, 09/16/98) reported that Indian Superintendent of
Police K.C. Sadyal said Wednesday that two men believed to be PRC spies
were arrested late Tuesday at the seat of the Dalai Lama's government-in-
exile in northern India. The men had maps, sketches, and other documents
relating to the security ring around the Tibetan leader at the time of
his arrest. The Dalai Lama's security is provided by Indian troops. In
Beijing, the PRC Foreign Ministry had no immediate comment on the
arrests.
12. Russian Missile Test
The Associated Press ("RUSSIA LAUNCHES TEST MISSILE," Moscow, 09/16/98)
reported that ITAR-Tass and Interfax news agencies cited Russia's
Strategic Missile Command as saying that it successfully launched an RS-
12M Topol intercontinental ballistic missile Wednesday in a military
exercise. The reports said that the missile was launched from the
Plesetsk cosmodrome in northern Russia and hit a target in the Kamchatka
area in the Russian Far East. Interfax quoted the command's press
service as saying, "This launch once again convincingly proved the high
combat readiness of the force and the reliability and technical readiness
of intercontinental ballistic missiles of this type."
13. US Military Exercises in Philippines
The Associated Press (Oliver Teves, "PHILIPPINES MARK US BASE REJECTION,"
Manila, 09/16/98) reported that demonstrators in the Philippines marked
the anniversary Wednesday of the rejection of US military bases seven
years ago with rallies attacking an agreement to allow a resumption of US
war exercises. Hundreds of protesters gathered at the US Embassy to
protest the proposed Visiting Forces Agreement.
1. DPRK Satellite Launch
Backing away from its initial assessment, the US State Department said
Monday that the object launched by the DPRK in the Western Pacific two
weeks ago was a satellite and not a missile. However, it said, the
military implications could be ominous for the DPRK's neighbors either
way. "We have concluded that the DPRK did attempt to orbit a very small
satellite. We also have concluded the satellite failed to achieve
orbit," US State Department spokesman James P. Rubin said. The
administration had tended to ignore official DPRK statements that the
August 31 launch involved a satellite. This was partly because US
analysts had not observed any object orbiting the Earth that correlated
to the orbital data the DPRK provided in its public statements. Rubin
said that the military implications are similar whether the test involved
a missile or a satellite. He also added that the US regards the test as
"a threat to US allies, friends and forces in the region." (Korea Times,
"NORTH KOREAN LAUNCH WAS A SATELLITE, NOT A MISSILE: US," 09/16/98)
The DPRK's Pyongyang radio claimed Tuesday that its satellite, "Bright
Star 1" is still in orbit and completed its one-hundredth circle of the
earth between 8:20 am and 11:07 am on Sunday. The claim states that the
satellite will be visible to the naked eye as it crosses the Korean
peninsula in early October. ROK scientists at the Korean institute of
Science and Technology (KAIST) dismiss the claim as propaganda, citing
the fact that the DPRK only stated the satellites highest and lowest
altitudes and not the orbital path. Additionally, they say that the DPRK
has added eight minutes to the orbit time, making it 173 minutes, which
is impossible as orbits decay and do not extend. (Chosun Ilbo, "NK
CLAIMS SATELLITE STILL IN ORBIT," 09/15/98)
2. DPRK Tourism Project
Amid growing worries over the possible delay of the Mt. Kumgang tour, Kim
Yoon-kyu, head of the Hyundai Group's DPRK business team, left Seoul for
Beijing Tuesday for talks with DPRK officials. While staying in Beijing,
Kim will meet with representatives from the DPRK's Asia-Pacific Peace
Committee to discuss pending issues, including the dispatch of
construction workers and material to the DPRK and the launch of Hyundai's
first cruise to Mt. Kumgang. The DPRK asked Hyundai to delay sending
equipment and construction workers for renovating pier facilities in
Changjon Port, citing a lack of preparation. The exact date of when
construction workers and material will be allowed to leave for the DPRK
and of Chung's visit will be revealed once Kim returns later this week,
he said. Hyundai had planned to launch its first cruise to Mt. Kumgang
on September 25, but the possibility that the unprecedented tour will be
postponed is growing. Hyundai tentatively plans to charge about US$1,000
per person for the four-night-five-day tour, of which the DPRK will
receive US$300. Hyundai anticipates that the DPRK would make up to
US$150 million a year through the Mt. Kumgang tour project. (Korea
Herald, "HYUNDAI TO RESUME TALKS WITH NORTH KOREA ON TOUR PROJECT,"
09/16/98)
1. US-DPRK Liaison Offices
Well-informed sources in the US State Department have told the Nautilus
Institute that there is no truth to recent report in the Chosun Ilbo that
the US and the DPRK have agreed to establish temporary liaison offices in
each other's capitals. [See US-DPRK Liaison Offices, in the ROK
Section of the September 14 Daily Report.] The sources said that no such
agreement has been reached.
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