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Northeast Asia Peace and Security Network DAILY REPORT For Thursday, September 24, 1998, from Berkeley, California, USA |
1. DPRK Missile Test
The Associated Press (John Diamond, "NORTH KOREAN MISSILE SURPRISED
U.S.," Washington, 09/23/98) reported that CIA Director George Tenet and
Army Lieutenant General Patrick Hughes, head of the Defense Intelligence
Agency, told members of the Senate Armed Services Committee Wednesday in
a classified briefing that they were surprised by the DPRK's test-firing
of a three-stage rocket. Senator Chuck Robb, D-Va., said after the
briefing, "The fact that [the DPRK] had a third-stage capability was not
predicted by the intelligence community, and they are doing a
reassessment." Senator Bob Smith, R-N.H., said, "The drift of the
concern is they're more advanced than we thought they were. The
performance of this thing came as a surprise. This is a serious matter
that has to be addressed." Senator Joseph Lieberman, D-Conn., said that
one worry is that the DPRK may try to develop a missile launch capability
from boats that could be positioned close to US territory. An anonymous
US intelligence official stated, "Everyone knows that North Korea is a
very difficult intelligence target. It's difficult to get a good picture
of what's going on there, given the nature of the regime."
2. US Policy toward DPRK
The Associated Press (George Gedda, "BAKER FAULTS CLINTON POLICIES,"
Washington, 09/23/98) reported that former US Secretary of State James A.
Baker III told a luncheon gathering on Wednesday that US policy toward
the DPRK has been an "abject failure." Baker said that the 1994 US-DPRK
agreement "depended on trusting the North Koreans. And now we've seen
what has happened. They are lobbing missiles over Japanese air space and
sending submarines to South Korea. The framework agreement is about to
fall apart." Baker added that the DPRK regime was built on force and
understands only strength and resolve.
3. ROK-Japanese Relations
The Associated Press ("REPORT: JAPAN TO APOLOGIZE TO KOREA," Tokyo,
09/24/98) reported that Kyodo News on Thursday cited an anonymous
Japanese Foreign Ministry official as saying that Japan plans to
apologize for its colonial rule of Korea during a visit next month by ROK
President Kim Dae-jung. The official said, however, that the expression
of remorse will not go beyond a similar statement three years ago by
former Prime Minister Tomiichi Murayama on the 50th anniversary of the
end of World War II.
4. Russian MIAs from Korean War
The US Department of Defense issued a Memorandum for Correspondents
("AMERICANS, RUSSIANS TO DISCUSS KOREAN WAR MIG SHOOTDOWNS," Washington,
USIA Text, 09/23/98) which said that five US Air Force fighter pilots
from the Korean War will meet with Russian officials Thursday to share
information on US shootdowns of MiG aircraft. The meeting was arranged
through the US-Russia Joint Commission on POW/MIAs. Russian members of
the Commission requested assistance in resolving cases of Russian airmen
missing in action from the Korean War.
5. PRC-Taiwan Talks
The Associated Press (Renee Schoof, "TAIWAN, CHINA AGREE ON VISIT,"
Beijing, 09/24/98) reported that Taiwan and China on Thursday agreed on
plans for a visit by Koo Chen-fu, chairman of the Straits Exchange
Foundation (SEF), to the PRC next month. Koo will first travel to
Shanghai to meet his counterpart, Association for Relations Across the
Taiwan Straits (ARATS) Director Wang Daohan. He will then go to Beijing
and meet with PRC President Jiang Zemin, Vice Premier Qian Qichen, and
Chen Yunlin, the director of the government's Taiwan Affairs Office.
Koo's trip is being characterized as a visit with opportunities to chat
rather than formal talks. Shi Hwei-yow, secretary-general of SEF, said
that "more cooperation" was needed to settle the question of holding
full-fledged political talks. Tang Shubei, vice director of ARATS,
reiterated the need for political talks, but added, "We still hope
everyone can find a method to pursue cross-strait relations."
The Washington Post (Michael Laris, "CHINA, TAIWAN AGREE TO REOPEN
DIALOGUE NEGOTIATORS DISPUTE AGENDA PRIORITIES," Beijing, 09/24/98, A33)
reported that David Shambaugh, director of the China Policy Program at
George Washington University, said that the PRC has quietly offered two
important initiatives over the last six months that suggest the
possibility of making significant concessions to Taiwan. Shambaugh said
that Wang Daohan, president of the Association for Relations Across the
Taiwan Strait, has said that the PRC would be willing to discuss domestic
political changes if Taiwan were willing to agree to a "one-China
formula" for reunification. For example, according to Shambaugh, Wang
has said that that the PRC would be willing to drop the words "People's
Republic" and just call itself China; would consider a new flag; and
would change the national anthem. In conversations with foreigners, Wang
has also said that the PRC could accept "shared sovereignty" with Taiwan
as long as Taiwan agrees to be part of a single China. Shambaugh stated,
"The PRC is [putting forth] the best offering to Taiwan in 50 years. If
Taiwan rebuffs it, they may not ever see it again. The PRC is leading
with a carrot, and if the carrot is not taken, a stick can follow."
Another anonymous source confirmed that Wang had made statements in
recent months about "shared sovereignty," but said that official policy
on the primacy of the PRC government has not been altered.
6. Pakistani Adherence to CTBT
Reuters (Paul Taylor, "PAKISTAN TO SIGN NUCLEAR TEST BAN, TALK TO INDIA,"
United Nations, 09/23/98), the Washington Post (John M. Goshko, "PAKISTAN
MAY SIGN NUCLEAR TEST BAN," United Nations, 09/24/98, A27) and the New
York Times (Barbara Crossette, "PAKISTAN PLEDGES A-BOMB TEST BAN IF
SANCTIONS END," United Nations, 09/24/98) reported that Pakistan Prime
Ministers Nawaz Sharif told the UN General Assembly on Wednesday that his
country was prepared to sign the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT)
before the review conference on the treaty scheduled in September 1999.
However, he added, "Pakistan's adherence to the treaty will take place
only in conditions free from coercion or pressure." He also said that
Pakistan's adherence to the treaty is dependent on India also signing.
He stated, "There is no reason why the two countries cannot adhere to the
CTBT. In a nuclearized South Asia, CTBT would have relevance if India
and Pakistan are both parties to the treaty." He added, "It must be well
understood that if India were to resume nuclear testing, Pakistan will
review its position, and in case we have adhered to the CTBT, invoke the
supreme interest clause." UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan stated, "The
government of Pakistan is to be commended for heeding the concern of the
international community." Annan noted that once Pakistan signed the
CTBT, 42 of the 44 states with nuclear power would have signed, with the
only exceptions being India and the DPRK.
Reuters ("U.S. ENCOURAGED BY PAKISTAN NUCLEAR OFFER," Washington,
09/24/98) reported that White House spokesman Mike McCurry said on
Thursday that the US welcomes Pakistan's offer to sign a nuclear test ban
treaty. McCurry stated, "We're very pleased by the statement that the
government of Pakistan has now made with respect to the Comprehensive
Test Ban Treaty."
7. Indian Adherence to CTBT
Reuters ("INDIA WILLING TO SIGN N-TEST BAN WITHIN YEAR," United Nations,
09/24/98) reported that Indian Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee told
the UN General Assembly on Thursday that India was prepared to sign the
Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty within one year. Vajpayee stated, "We are
prepared to bring these discussions to a successful conclusion, so that
the entry into force of the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty is not delayed
beyond September 1999." He added that India was already observing the
treaty's basic obligation since it announced a voluntary moratorium after
its five nuclear tests in May. He said India expected that other
countries would adhere to the treaty unconditionally.
8. US South Asian Sanctions
Dow Jones Newswires (Denny Kurien, "U.S. SEEN CLOSER TO LIFTING SANCTIONS
ON INDIA, PAKISTAN," New Delhi, 09/24/98) reported that Richard Haass,
foreign policy expert and director of foreign policy studies at the
Brookings Institution, said Thursday that it is becoming increasingly
possible that the US Congress could soon give President Bill Clinton the
power to lift economic sanctions on India and Pakistan. Haass stated,
"In the last few days pieces are beginning to fall in place. I am
optimistic that we have begun to get there." He added that the US has
important engagements in India and Pakistan and should not sacrifice its
interests for unrealistic options. He said that "It is simply not
practical" to hope for a nuclear-free South Asia, adding that the US
should instead try to prevent further proliferation on the part of India
or Pakistan.
1. DPRK Satellite Launch
Joongang Ilbo ("DPRK PLANNED THE 2ND AND 3RD LAUNCHES," Seoul, 09/24/98)
reported that a source close to diplomatic affairs revealed that DPRK had
planned a second and third missile launch on September 5 and 9, in case
the first one failed. He said, "It is true that intelligence agencies in
the US and Japan predicted that DPRK was ready to launch a second
missile." He added, "North Korean policy makers prepared the launch to
commemorate the opening day of their Supreme People's Assembly and the
50th anniversary of their government's establishment. They forecast that
the Kwangmyungsung 1 satellite they launched would orbit the earth for
two years." The source, who recently returned from a visit to DPRK,
stated, "For North Koreans, the satellite is a gift for Kim Jong-il's
inauguration. Some, proudly, said that they will launch reconnaissance
satellites soon." He commented, "They said that the satellite launch is
only one of three cards which would surprise the world. So I feel the
North is planning further surprising news."
DPRK authorities released a picture of its "Bright Star-1" satellite in
the September 14 edition of party organ, Rodong Shinmun. ROK scientists
said that the photograph is similar to the PRC's "East Red Star-1"
satellite, which was launched April 23, 1970. This satellite is 173 kg
and was launched off a three-stage rocket. The DPRK's satellite appears
much smaller than the PRC's and apparently has four antennae and solar
panels. (Chosun Ilbo, "NK RELEASES PHOTOGRAPH OF SATELLITE," 09/24/98)
2. DPRK-US Relations
Joongang Ilbo ("DPRK REPEATEDLY REQUESTS PEACE AGREEMENT WITH THE US,"
Seoul, 09/24/98) reported that the DPRK has repeatedly requested the US
to conclude a peace agreement and withdraw all US Forces from the ROK.
The DPRK said, "Both sides should confirm a non-aggression pact between
the North and the South and thoroughly fulfill peace." Rodong Shinmun,
the DPRK Worker's Party paper, reported, "We should form a new peace
system to mitigate the tension on the Korean peninsula and nullify the
danger of war." Regarding US Forces in Korea, it commented, "The US has
no reason to maintain its army in Korea after the non-aggression pact
between the North and the South is signed." This paper continued, "The
U.S. should abandon its hostile policy against us and conclude a peace
agreement with us."
3. Four-Party Peace Talks
Korea Herald ("SPECIAL ENVOY TO FOUR PARTY TALKS APPOINTED," Seoul,
09/25/98) reported that Park Kun-woo, former ROK vice foreign minister,
was appointed chief ROK delegate to the four-party peace talks for the
Korean Peninsula. The Foreign Affairs and Trade Ministry said Thursday
that Park, now ambassador-at-large, would deal exclusively with the four-
party talks as the ROK special envoy. The next four party peace talks
attended by the ROK, the DPRK, the PRC, and the US are expected to be
held in Geneva around October 20, the ministry said. Since joining the
Foreign Service in 1963, Park has served as vice foreign minister from
1994-95 and as ROK Ambassador to the US from 1995 till April of this
year.
4. US Aid for DPRK
The US State Department announced Tuesday that it has decided to give
300,000 tons of wheat in food aid by the end of the year to the DPRK. In
his announcement, department spokesman James Rubin said that the US
government decided to approve the humanitarian food aid to support the
children, women, and senior citizens of the country. (Chosun Ilbo, "US
APPROVES FOOD AID TO NK," 09/24/98)
5. Alleged DPRK Spies
The National Security Planning Agency (NSPA) announced that it had
arrested three DPRK spies, including two who had posed as a couple, Lee
Sang-jin and Kim Young-bok. The three had been staying in Austria, but
went to the DPRK and were trained as agents. Lee and Kim had been
staying in Vienna since 1990 and had visited Pyongyang twice in 1993 when
they joined the Workers' Party and received US$53,200 and Japanese Yen
400,000. They visited the ROK seven times and reported back on radar
facilities at Chonam, imports and exports of heavy machinery, and
activist groups. (Chosun Ilbo, "NSPA CATCHES NK SPIES," 09/25/98)
6. ROK-Japan Fisheries Pact
Negotiations between the ROK and Japan over a new fisheries pact were
finally settled Thursday in Tokyo. According to press reports and
officials at the ROK embassy in Japan, officials of the two governments
agreed that the boundary of each country's fishing area will be located
at 135.30 degrees east longitude, a line which sits between the boundary
that each country lobbied for. In earlier disputes, the ROK had been
claiming 136 degrees as the fishing boundary, while Japan had maintained
that it was at 135 degrees. They also agreed that the ROK and Japan
would hold their catches at the same levels for three to five years.
Catch limits will initially be set at 230,000 ton a year for the ROK and
100,000 ton for Japan, but these will be reduced to a few dozen thousand
tons in several years for both countries. Barring unforeseen
circumstances, the new fisheries pact will be signed when President Kim
Dae-jung visits Japan early next month. (Chosun Ilbo, "KOREA-JAPAN
FISHERIES NEGOTIATIONS SETTLED," 09/25/98)
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