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Northeast Asia Peace and Security Network DAILY REPORT For Friday, September 25, 1998, from Berkeley, California, USA |
1. DPRK Rocket Launch
The Associated Press ("N. KOREA THREATENS MILITARY LAUNCH," Seoul,
09/25/98) reported that a commentary in the DPRK Workers' Party's Rodong
Sinmun on Friday accused the US of slandering the DPRK over its recent
rocket launch. The commentary said, "For the U.S. to talk about
'threats' by the Democratic People's Republic of Korea is the height of
impudence." It added, "Whether the DPRK's launch of artificial satellite
is used for military purposes or not entirely depends on the attitude of
the U.S. and other hostile forces."
The Associated Press (Laura Myers, "REP. HAMILTON SLAMS CIA ON N. KOREA,"
Washington, 09/24/98) reported that Representative Lee Hamilton, D-Ind.,
the top-ranking Democrat on the House International Relations Committee,
on Thursday criticized US intelligence for botching its initial
assessment of the nature of the DPRK's August 31 rocket launch. Hamilton
stated, "A miscall like that has a lot of consequences." Kurt Campbell,
deputy assistant defense secretary for the Asia-Pacific region, agreed
with Hamilton that the political consequences were serious, but added,
"Everyone who deals with intelligence understands that sometimes early
assessments are modified subsequently." Campbell said that it is
difficult using satellite photographs and other techniques to figure out
the situation in the DPRK. He stated, "I will tell you I think that the
intelligence community ... [was] surprised. I think some of them are
kicking themselves that after looking at the preparations for this test
for literally weeks, that we were not in a position to be able to ...
predict what kind of test this was."
The Washington Post (Bradley Graham, "N. KOREAN MISSILE THREAT IS
REASSESSED," 09/25/98, A31) reported that Robert D. Walpole, the US
Central Intelligence Agency (CIA)'s senior intelligence officer for
strategic programs said in a speech to the Carnegie Endowment for
International Peace last week that US intelligence experts failed to
anticipate the DPRK's ability to launch a three-stage rocket last month.
Walpole stated, "Although the launch of the Taepo Dong I as a missile was
expected for some time, its use as a space launch vehicle with a third
stage was not." He described the DPRK as having the most advanced
missile development program among states hostile to the US, significantly
ahead of Iran and Iraq. He added that analysts are still trying to
figure out why the DPRK launch failed and its implications for US
security. He stated, "In particular, the community is assessing how
small a payload would have to be for this system to fly to something on
the order of an ICBM range." Walpole said that intelligence agencies
could provide "five years' warning" of any indigenous long-range missile
development by a potentially hostile power, but he acknowledged there
might be little warning if the missiles were bought or if they were
adapted for launch from sea. Donald Rumsfeld, former US defense
secretary, said, "I think [the DPRK launch] reinforces the point that we
cannot expect that we're going to know everything that's going on in the
world."
2. US-ROK-Japan Policy toward DPRK
The US Department of State ("U.S., JAPAN, ROK JOINT STATEMENT ON NORTH
KOREA ISSUES," New York, USIA Text, 09/25/98) on Thursday issued a "Joint
Statement on North Korea Issues," following a meeting in New York between
Japanese Minister for Foreign Affairs Masahiko Komura, ROK Minister of
Foreign Affairs and Trade Hong Soon-young, and US Secretary of State
Madeleine K. Albright. The statement said that the three Ministers
confirmed the importance of maintaining the 1994 Agreed Framework "as the
most realistic and effective mechanisms for preventing North Korea from
advancing its nuclear program." It added, "Ministers Komura and Hong
reaffirmed their support for the Agreed Framework and all three Ministers
reiterated their commitment to KEDO." The three Ministers also deplored
the DPRK's recent missile launch, saying, "They agreed that North Korea's
missile development, if unchecked, would adversely affect the peace and
security of Japan, the Republic of Korea and the entire Northeast Asia
region, and that it raised serious concerns about the proliferation of
weapons of mass destruction and their delivery systems." They also
reviewed the results of recent talks between the US and the DPRK in New
York. The statement added, "Secretary Albright expressed the
determination of the United States Government to seek through [upcoming
US-DPRK missile] talks the cessation of North Korean flight-testing,
production, deployment, and export of missiles and related material and
technology. Ministers Komura and Hong expressed their support for these
U.S. efforts and stressed the importance of North Korea's committing to
tangible steps in the missile talks." The three Ministers also
"reaffirmed the importance of close consultation concerning policies
toward North Korea."
3. ROK-Japan Fisheries Agreement
The Associated Press ("JAPAN CONFIRMS AGREEMENT WITH S. KOREA IN
FISHERIES DISPUTE," Tokyo, 09/24/98) reported that Isao Koya, a spokesman
for Japan's fisheries ministry, said that Japan and the ROK reached a
basic agreement Friday on a new treaty to determine fishing boundaries
and quotas around disputed islands. Koya said that the countries agreed
to establish a joint fishing zone around the islets at 64 kms from the
shores of the two countries. The two sides also agreed to reduce their
fishing catches in each other's waters. Japanese Prime Minister Keizo
Obuchi, who attended the talks, stated, "I think fishing people on both
sides...may feel some dissatisfaction, but I ask their understanding for
the sake of long-term friendship."
4. Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty
The New York Times (Barbara Crossette, "NEW DELHI PLEDGES TO SIGN WORLD
BAN ON NUCLEAR TESTS," United Nations, 09/25/98) reported that Republican
senators Jesse Helms of North Carolina, Trent Lott of Mississippi, and
Jon Kyl of Arizona sent a letter to US President Bill Clinton last week
saying that they opposed lifting sanctions on India and Pakistan in
exchange for adherence to the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT). The
letter stated, "As the recent Indian nuclear tests demonstrated, the CTBT
is not adequately verifiable." They added that they also opposed the
export of high-technology goods to India and the sharing of scientific
information that can be used in nuclear programs.
White House Press Secretary Mike McCurry ("WHITE HOUSE REPORT, THURSDAY,
SEPTEMBER 24, 1998," 09/24/98) on Thursday urged the US Senate to ratify
the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT). He also said that it is the
US's "strong hope that India and Pakistan will eventually join that list"
of signatories to the treaty. McCurry stated, "Obviously, we are very
pleased by the statement that the government of Pakistan has now made
with respect to the CTBT." He added, "It's something that clearly will
advance our interests in moving towards the test ban regime that needs to
be implemented, it will lend momentum to the effort to ratify the treaty
that is going on around the world." Regarding whether US President Bill
Clinton will visit India and Pakistan this year as originally planned,
McCurry said, "we are still assessing the President's travel schedule."
The United States Information Agency (Judy Aita, "U.S. PRAISES STEPS BY
INDIA, PAKISTAN TOWARD SIGNING CTBT," United Nations, 09/24/98) reported
that US Secretary of State Madeleine Albright praised Pakistan and India
for stating that they intend to sign the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty
(CTBT) within the year. However, she said that "more steps need to be
taken" before the US can lift sanctions. Albright stated, "We have to
look at how this all progresses. I don't want to overstate what has
happened here. They are important steps but ... there are many steps
that still need to be taken. We are not prepared to make a judgment."
Albright said that the US interpreted the remarks to the UN by the Indian
and Pakistani prime ministers as indications that the two countries are
"moving towards adherence to the CTBT." She also noted that the two
"removed their obstacles to the fissile material cut-off treaty
negotiations in Geneva and they have promised to strengthen controls on
the export of nuclear material and technology" and agreed to pursue talks
on Kashmir. She added, "Obviously much remains to be done: actually
signing and ratifying the CTBT, finding a formula for a moratorium on
producing fissile material while negotiations are under way, structuring
a restraint regime on nuclear weapons and their means of delivery to
demonstrate their intent to avoid a nuclear arms race, and actually
strengthening their export control regime." A senior Administration
official said that a decision on President Bill Clinton's planned trip to
South Asia may be made as early as the first week in October. The
official also said that the US Congress is watching developments "very
closely and they will be ready to respond at the appropriate time" on
sanctions.
The Los Angeles Times (Bob Drogin, "LIKE PAKISTAN, INDIA MAY OK TEST-BAN
TREATY," Washington, 09/25/98) reported that experts in South Asian
affairs were divided as to how much real progress on South Asian
adherence to the CTBT occurred at the UN. Michael Krepon, president of
the Henry L. Stimson Center, stated, "Both public postures are indirect
and convoluted. But they lead to the same place--a public commitment to
formally join the test-ban treaty by the fall of 1999. That's positive."
South Asian expert Paula Newberg said that the vagueness of India's
statement, "gives Mr. Vajpayee a way to deny any particular
interpretation." Morton H. Halperin, senior vice president of the
Century Foundation in Washington, said, "I think both India and Pakistan
are saying they want to move, but they are looking for something from us.
If they sign the test-ban treaty tomorrow, the president still can't lift
the sanctions."
5. Indian Fissile Material
The Los Angeles Times (Bob Drogin, "LIKE PAKISTAN, INDIA MAY OK TEST-BAN
TREATY," Washington, 09/25/98) reported that Jane's Intelligence Review
said this week that if India used reactor-grade as well as weapons-grade
plutonium, it potentially had enough fissile material to build 455 atomic
bombs. The journal also estimated that Pakistan could build up to 100
bombs, four times more than previously believed.
1. US-ROK-Japan Policy toward DPRK
The US, Japan, and the ROK on Thursday vowed their continued commitment
to a nuclear reactor project for the DPRK despite its recent launch of a
rocket which overflew Japan, officials said. US Secretary of State
Madeleine Albright, Japanese Foreign Minister Masahiko Komura, and ROK
Foreign Affairs-Trade Minister Hong Soon-Young held three-way security
talks on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly. "The three ministers
deplored the DPRK's recent missile launch," the three said in a joint
statement. They agreed, however, that the international project to
provide nuclear reactors for the DPRK was "the most realistic and
effective mechanism" for preventing the DPRK from advancing its nuclear
weapons development. "All the three ministers reiterated their
commitment to KEDO (the Korean Peninsula Energy Development
Organization)," it said. Japan however, still angry at the stunning
launch, failed to announce an immediate resumption of its contribution to
the KEDO aimed at providing the DPRK with safe nuclear reactors in return
for a freeze on its suspect nuclear program. (Korea Times, "SOUTH KOREA,
US, JAPAN VOW TO BACK NUCLEAR REACTOR PROJECT FOR NK," 09/26/98)
2. DPRK Rocket Launch
The top US Democrat on the House International Relations Committee
criticized US intelligence for botching its initial assessment of the
nature of the DPRK's August 31 rocket launch. At first, US intelligence
agencies told lawmakers in private briefings that the DPRK fired a three-
stage ballistic missile, which flew across Japan. The analysts later
concluded that the rocket was a failed satellite launch, as the DPRK
reported. The technology is the same, but a missile launch is viewed as
much more threatening, Representative Lee Hamilton noted Thursday to
three Clinton administration officials at a hearing. "A miscall like
that has a lot of consequences," said Hamilton, who like most Democrats
and some Republicans in Congress wants the fuel oil money restored to
keep the nuclear freeze deal from falling apart. The deal promised fuel
deliveries, while an international group that includes Kurt Campbell,
deputy assistant defense secretary for the Asia-Pacific region, agreed
with Hamilton that the political consequences were serious, but he said
that initial intelligence assessments often do not hit the mark.
Campbell said it is difficult using satellite photographs and other
techniques to glean enough information to figure out what is going on in
the DPRK, a closed and tightly controlled state. US intelligence has
uncovered no evidence of a renewed nuclear weapons program, Campbell
said. The Clinton administration has, however, requested the DPRK
government to allow inspection of its underground site. (Korea Times,
"TOP DEMOCRAT SLAMS CIA FLUB ON N. KOREAN LAUNCH," 09/26/98)
3. ROK-Japan Fisheries Talks
The ROK's main opposition Grand National Party (GNP) said Friday that the
ROK government yielded too much to Japan in the fisheries agreement that
was wrapped up in Tokyo. "The government has lost the golden Yamato, or
Taehwatoe, fishing bank in the East Sea in succumbing to Japanese
demands," Representative Kang Hyon-wook, chief policymaker of the party,
argued. Kang also cited the eastern limit for the ROK's fishing area at
the longitudinal line of 135.5 degrees 30 minutes east as another
concession to Japan. Given the former fishing agreement under which the
ROK shared the Taehwatoe fishing ground with Japan and the eastern limit
to the longitudinal line of 136 degrees east, the new accord is a crucial
setback for the local fishing industry, Kang argued. The opposition camp
went on to raise a suspicion that the government made the concession in
the interests of a hurried conclusion to the fishery talks, mindful of
ROK President Kim Dae-jung's visit to Japan next month. "Though the
deadline for the fishery accord is still four months away, the ROK
government has hastily concluded it," the GNP claimed. (Korea Times,
"GOVERNMENT YIELDED TOO MUCH TO JAPAN IN FISHERIES AGREEMENT: GNP,"
09/26/98)
1. US Bases in Japan
The Yomiuri Shimbun ("PRIME MINISTER MAY RECONSIDER ALTERNATIVE
HELIPORT," 09/25/98) reported that in response to a question about the
construction of an alternative heliport in Okinawa by Democratic Party
Diet member Yukio Hatoyama at an Upper House plenary session on September
24, Prime Minister Keizo Obuchi suggested that he may reconsider the
Japanese government's proposal. Obuchi said, "I think the proposal of
alternative off-shore heliport is the best option, but I would like to
wait and see what kind of discussion may take place within the
prefecture, while considering the course of past events." The Yomiuri
Shimbun pointed out that Obuchi may have made his statement in light of
the proposal by Keiichi Inamine, conservative candidate for the Okinawa
Governor's race in November, for the construction of a civilian-military
dual use airport as an alternative to the heliport proposal. The report
added that Obuchi said to reporters after the plenary session, "The off-
shore heliport is the principle, but I just added the statement 'I would
like to observe the present situation.'"
2. Japanese-PRC Reactions to DPRK Launch
The Yomiuri Shimbun ("JAPANESE AND PRC FOREIGN MINISTER EXCHANGES VIEWS
ON DPRK MISSILE TEST," New York, 09/24/98) reported that Japanese Foreign
Minister Masahiko Komura and his PRC counterpart, Tang Jiaxuan, met at
the UN in New York on September 23. Komura said to Tang about the DPRK's
missile test, "The missile was launched over Japan. This is a serious
situation not only for Japan but for the peace and security of Northeast
Asia as well." In response, Tang said, "It is understandable that Japan
has grave concern about the DPRK's action this time."
3. Japanese-Russian Relations
The Daily Yomiuri (Akinori Uchida, "KOMURA AGREES WITH IVANOV ON TREATY
BY 2000," New York, 09/23/98) reported that in his first meeting with his
Russian counterpart Igor Ivanov at a New York hotel on September 21,
Japanese Foreign Minister Masahiko Komura agreed that Prime Minister
Keizo Obuchi would visit Russia in early November and that they intended
to follow through on agreements to sign a peace treaty by 2000. They
also agreed that Komura would visit Russia in October. He had originally
been scheduled to visit Moscow in September, but delayed the trip out of
consideration for Russia's impasse over choosing a new prime minister.
According to the report, Obuchi's visit would last several days, likely
including November 11 and 12. The report added that Komura reportedly
said that he wanted to cooperate with Russia to sign the treaty and did
not want to go "backward in the stream of history."
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