|
Northeast Asia Peace and Security Network DAILY REPORT For Tuesday, September 29, 1998, from Berkeley, California, USA |
1. DPRK UN Speech
The Associated Press (Edith M. Lederer, "NORTH KOREAN MINISTER WARNS OF
WAR," United Nations, 09/28/98) reported that DPRK Vice Foreign Minister
Choe Su-hon official told the UN General Assembly Monday that the
continued division of the Korean peninsula is increasing the danger of
another Korean War. Choe stated, "As a result of the present military
maneuvers against North Korea on and around the Korean peninsula, a
danger that either the 20th century may close or the 21st century may
open with another Korean war is getting ever more imminent." Choe said
that reunification would remove the danger of war, adding, "It is our
consistent stand to hold dialogue for reunification and to improve
relations between the north and south of Korea." Choe reiterated the
DPRK's demand that the US withdraw its forces from the ROK. He also said
that Japan should not hinder reunification "by aggravating the tense
situation on the Korean peninsula." He added, "In order for the Korean
people to solve questions on national unity and reunification by
themselves, countries concerned including the United States and Japan
should refrain from acts of hindering the efforts of the Korean people."
Choe pointed to the DPRK's satellite launch on August 31 as a
demonstration of "the might of our scientific and technical development."
He called for nuclear disarmament to remain a priority on the UN agenda.
2. Implementation of Agreed Framework
The Los Angeles Times carried an analytical article (Tom Plate, "IS CRAZY
THE ONLY ANSWER TO CRAZY?" 09/29/98) which warned that the failure of the
US to implement the 1994 Agreed Framework with the DPRK could lead to a
war with devastating consequences. The article quoted an unnamed US
military source in the ROK as saying that, in case of a war, the DPRK
"wouldn't just pour over the border as foot soldiers. The North's
artillery would rain down on Seoul. Their Rodong missiles would slime
the southern cities with chemical agents. North Korean special forces
are already in South Korea, and they would do everything from blowing up
TV stations to killing South Korean leaders. The North has the ability
to threaten South Korea in depth, not just along the DMZ. We'd stop the
ground assault--it's the other stuff that would do the real damage." The
article also quoted Peter Hayes, co-executive director of the Nautilus
Institute for Security and Sustainable Development, as saying, "The
political posturing to wreck the Agreed Framework is irresponsible in the
extreme. It makes it much harder to engage them cooperatively--to test
their will to work cooperatively with the United States, instead of
having to rely solely on conventional military threats and nuclear
extortion as its means of communicating with the United States. Dumping
KEDO sounds smart until you examine the alternatives. When the
Republicans look over the precipice, they will conclude that jumping over
cliffs is bad for your health." The author warned that, if the
Republican-led Congress dismantles the Agreed Framework, "In its place,
they have nothing to propose more substantive than a commission to study
the issue."
3. DPRK Seizure of Korean-American
The Associated Press ("COLLEGE PRESIDENT HELD IN N. KOREA," Seoul,
09/29/98) reported that the ROK's Agency for National Security Planning
said Tuesday that Kim Jin-kyong, president of Yanbian Engineering College
in the PRC's Yanbian province, has been held in the DPRK for two weeks.
Kim, an ROK-born U.S. citizen, entered the DPRK in early September, along
with a Christian pastor from Seoul, for a 10-day stay. The pastor was
allowed to leave at the end of the trip but Kim was not. ROK media said
that the two planned to discuss building a dental hospital in Pyongyang
and an engineering college in the DPRK's Rajin-Sonbong free trade zone.
The ROK newspaper JoongAng Ilbo reported that Kim was questioned about
whether he had given bribes to DPRK officials.
4. ROK Labor Unrest
Reuters (Yeom Yoon-jeong, "SOUTH KOREA BANK UNION SAYS STAGE HUGE
STRIKE," Seoul, 09/28/98) reported that Choo Won-suh, president of the
Korean Federation of Bank and Financial Labor Unions, on Tuesday declared
a general strike of 36,000 bank workers. Kim Young-joo, vice president
of the federation, stated, "We cannot accept their (presidents of nine
commercial banks) offer to curtail the number of bank employees by 33
percent." The ROK government has declared the strike illegal and said it
would sternly deal with it.
5. ROK Economic Crisis
The Wall Street Journal ("KOREA'S PRESIDENT PREDICTS GROWTH BY MID-1999
AMID REFORM EFFORTS," Seoul, 09/29/98) reported that ROK President Kim
Dae-jung said Tuesday that the economy will be able to resume growth
around the middle of next year. Kim said that business restructuring
among the nation's five largest conglomerates is expected to be completed
by the end of this year and the economy will begin to pick up next year
as the effects from structural reforms begin to show. Kim also said that
the government will again allow next year's fiscal deficit to stand at 5
percent of gross domestic product to support the social safety net,
improve infrastructure, and boost the information industry. He added
that the government will also continue to adopt a flexible monetary
policy to support the domestic economy.
6. Asian Economic Crisis
The Wall Street Journal (Henny Sender, "JAPAN IS EXPECTED TO PLEDGE AID
TO FOUR ASIAN NATIONS NEXT WEEK," Tokyo, 09/29/98) reported that an
unnamed senior Japanese government official said Tuesday that Minister of
Finance Kiichi Miyazawa is expected to announce an initiative to support
economically troubled Asian countries at the annual meetings of the World
Bank and International Monetary Fund next week in Washington. Under the
proposal, Japan will offer aid to Indonesia, Thailand, the ROK, and
Malaysia, including loan guarantees and interest-rate subsidies.
7. Declassified US Documents
The Los Angeles Times (Jim Mann, "U.S. CONSIDERED '64 BOMBING TO KEEP
CHINA NUCLEAR-FREE," Washington, 09/27/98) reported that a recently
released collection of US government documents about US policy toward the
PRC during the Lyndon Johnson presidency show that US policymakers
considered bombing the PRC's nuclear test facilities in 1964 to prevent
the PRC from becoming a nuclear power. The documents show that the US
State Department asked the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff in mid-
1963 to draw up a contingency plan for an attack, with conventional
weapons, on the PRC's nuclear facilities. The Joint Chiefs said that a
bombing operation would be feasible, but recommended consideration of the
use of nuclear weapons. However, a policy memo pointed out, "Direct
action against the Chinese Communist nuclear facilities would, at best,
put them out of operation for a few years (perhaps four or five)." The
Central Intelligence Agency also considered a clandestine operation
against the PRC's nuclear facilities. US policymakers also explored the
possibility of "joint action" with the Soviet Union against the PRC's
nuclear program, but Soviet Ambassador Anatoly F. Dobrynin showed no
interest in the proposals.
8. PRC-Taiwan Economic Relations
Reuters ("CHINESE NET FIRM IN PACT WITH TAIWAN NEWS AGENCY," Hong Kong,
09/29/98) reported that China Internet Corp (CIC), a Hong Kong-based
Internet firm about 60 percent owned by the PRC's official Xinhua news
agency, said on Tuesday that it had completed its first commercial deal
with Taiwan's official Central News Agency (CNA). CIC said that the deal
calls for it to repackage, promote, and sell real-time business news from
CNA, via the Internet, to subscribers in the PRC and Hong Kong. CIC said
in a statement, "The historic decision by the two parties to market the
real-time business news service, under the brand china.com, marks the
first step in a unique collaboration between the two prominent media
groups in the development and delivery of on-line information services to
Greater China. Through this unique co-operation with CNA, CIC looks
forward to opening a new page in delivering online information services
to Greater China." Tiao Hung-chih, director of the CNA's business
information department, said that the deal is strictly apolitical,
adding, "China Internet will not carry our political or general news
services."
9. US South Asian Sanctions
Reuters ("U.S. PANEL REVISES INDIA, PAKISTAN SANCTIONS," Washington,
09/29/98) reported that negotiators from the US House of Representatives
and Senate voted on Monday to give US President Bill Clinton flexibility
to lift sanctions against India and Pakistan. Negotiators rejected a
proposal to exempt food and medicine from all unilateral US embargoes.
1. DPRK Military
According to the ROK's "White Paper on Defense 1998," the DPRK has
increased its paramilitary forces by 900,000 to 7,450,000 personnel in
the year to date. The ROK and the US are developing a contingency
strategy to destroy chemical and biological weapons before the DPRK has
an opportunity to deploy them. Both countries have agreed on counter-
measures for any sudden change in the DPRK's political situation,
including the collapse of the DPRK government. According to the paper,
the DPRK has 1,160,000 personnel in its regular army, an increase of
13,000 over the previous year. The increase included 8 new army
divisions, 800 artillery pieces, 170 naval vessels, and 30 tanks. The
white paper also said that the DPRK succeeded in its project to cultivate
viruses for biological warfare in 1980 and tested the virus on live
subjects at the end of the 1980's. (Chosun Ilbo, "NK BOASTS 7.45 MILLION
PARAMILITARY FORCE," 09/29/98)
2. ROK Food Aid for DPRK
The ROK "Love Your Neighbor" Association has sent 104 of the 200 cows it
has bought to the DPRK Sunday via Inchon port. The animals are being
ferried to Nampo on the container ship Sona, which regularly plies
between the two ports. The cows are housed in special containers along
with fodder and are scheduled to arrive at Nampo on Monday. The
remaining 96 will be sent on October 22 with 23 tons of fodder. The
association said that all the cows are pregnant, so that the eventual
number of cows will be 400, with 300 at least by the end of the year.
(Chosun Ilbo, "LOVE YOUR NEIGHBOR ASSOCIATION SENT 104 DAIRY COWS,"
09/29/98)
1. US Aid to DPRK
US Representative Tony Hall, D-Ohio, issued a press release (DON'T CUT OFF HUMANITARIAN AID TO NORTH KOREA, HALL URGES CONGRESS," Washington, 09/29/98) which said that provisions proposed in closed-door sessions of a House-Senate conference committee would effectively cut off humanitarian aid to the DPRK. Hall, in a letter to leaders of the House and Senate Appropriations Committees, noted that the ROK opposes ending such aid. He added that a US pull-out from the international humanitarian effort would cripple the UN's efforts to feed the young children who are the primary target of World Food Program appeals for aid. Hall stated, "Our quarrel with Pyongyang is over KEDO, and over its missile development and exports. It is not with the North Korean children whose lives are being saved by U.S. humanitarian aid, and who are our best hope for peace on the Korean Peninsula." He added, "Proponents of adding these extreme provisions don't suggest that American food is being diverted, or that it is not saving lives. Instead, they complain that corn and wheat have not achieved, in three years, fundamental reform of North Korea's regime. Neither has our half-century-long commitment of troops to the region -- an investment that costs $10 billion each year." Hall stated, "Our food aid is doing its job: feeding starving people. And it is building goodwill necessary to accomplishing our other goals. I have seen that firsthand, as have dozens of aid workers and American diplomats." He concluded, "Ending our efforts with this arbitrary intervention in the Administration's authority to conduct our country's foreign policy will not further American interests. It will result in the loss of many lives, and it will hinder diplomatic efforts to improve security in the region -- a goal we all share." For more information, contact Deborah DeYoung, 202-225-1217.
The NAPSNet Daily Report aims to serve as a forum for dialogue
and exchange among peace and security specialists.
Conventions for readers and a list of acronyms and
abbreviations are available to all recipients.
For descriptions of the world wide web sites used to gather
information for this report, or for more information on web
sites with related information, see the collection of
other NAPSNet resources.
Produced by the Nautilus Institute for Security and Sustainable Development in partnership with:
Wade L. Huntley: napsnet@nautilus.org
Timothy L. Savage: napsnet@nautilus.org
Choi Chung-moon: cily@star.elim.co.kr
Hiroyasu Akutsu: akutsu@glocomnet.or.jp
Peter Razvin: icipu@glas.apc.org
Chunsi Wu: dlshen@fudan.ac.cn
Dingli Shen: dlshen@fudan.ac.cn
Return to the Top of this Daily Report
[Next Item][Contents]
[Prev. Item][Next Item][Contents]
[Prev. Item][Next Item][Contents]
[Prev. Item][Next Item][Contents]
[Prev. Item][Next Item][Contents]
[Prev. Item][Next Item][Contents]
[Prev. Item][Next Item][Contents]
[Prev. Item][Next Item][Contents]
[Prev. Item][Next Item][Contents]
[Prev. Item][Next Item][Contents]
[Prev. Item][Next Item][Contents]
[Prev. Item][Contents][Credits]
We invite you to reply to today's report, and we welcome
commentary or papers for distribution to the network.
The Center for Global Communications, Tokyo, Japan
Center for American Studies,
Fudan University, Shanghai, People's Republic of China
Berkeley, California, United States
Berkeley, California, United States
Seoul, Republic of Korea
Tokyo, Japan
Moscow, Russian Federation
Shanghai, People's Republic of China
Shanghai, People's Republic of China