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Northeast Asia Peace and Security Network DAILY REPORT For Thursday, October 1, 1998, from Berkeley, California, USA |
1. Implementation of Agreed Framework
Reuters (Carol Giacomo, "U.S. GIVES N. KOREA FUEL OIL AS TALKS RESUME,"
Washington, 09/30/98) reported that US officials said on Wednesday that
President Bill Clinton used presidential authority to provide an extra
US$15 million to the Korean Peninsula Energy Development Organization to
buy some 150,000 metric tons of fuel oil to ship to the DPRK. The
officials said that the funds are being shifted from anti-terrorism,
nonproliferation, and other programs. US State Department deputy
spokesman James Foley stated, "We continue to believe very strongly that
it's important to go forward with the implementation of the Agreed
Framework. And it is essential in this regard for the U.S. to live up to
its commitments just as we demand obviously that North Korea fulfill all
of its obligations under the Agreed Framework." He added that Clinton's
authorization will bring to about 366,000 metric tons the total heavy
fuel oil made available to the DPRK in 1998, out of a commitment of
500,000 metric tons. He acknowledged "there is still a shortfall" and
said efforts were continuing to obtain funds to provide the rest.
2. US-DPRK Missile Talks
The Associated Press (George Gedda, "US-N. KOREA MISSILE TALKS TO
RESUME," Washington, 10/01/98) reported that the US and the DPRK resumed
missile talks on Thursday in New York for the first time since June 1997.
Assistant Secretary of State Robert Einhorn was leading the US delegation
to the talks, while the DPRK side is led by Han Chang-on, a US expert in
the DPRK foreign ministry. The talks are expected to last two days. US
State Department spokesman James Foley said Wednesday that the DPRK's
rocket launch a month ago "is a matter of great concern to the U.S.
because of its destabilizing impact in the region."
3. ROK-DPRK Relations
Reuters ("SOUTH KOREAN PRESIDENT RENEWS CALL FOR NORTH KOREA TALKS,"
Seoul, 10/01/98) reported that ROK President Kim Dae-jung on Thursday
renewed his call for bilateral talks with the DPRK. Kim, at a ceremony
marking the 50th anniversary of the armed forces, stated, "With the
inauguration of the new leadership, I hope that North Korea can start a
new age of reconciliation and cooperation with us." He added, "We are
not going to beg for bilateral talks, but as far as we are concerned the
channel for dialogue is wide open." He vowed to prevent another conflict
with the DPRK, but added, "If, by some unfortunate chance, there should
be an invasion, we will thoroughly smash it in the initial stage." He
also said that peace in Northeast Asia and the world was linked to
stability on the Korean peninsula. He stated, "Therefore, we must
strengthen the ROK-US Defense System based on our strong national defense
capability and push cooperation with Japan, while not neglecting
cooperation with China and Russia." He added, "As is shown in continuing
infiltration incidents, North Korea is still adhering to an unchanging
strategy of communizing and unifying the country by force. It is
continuing to intensify military confrontation and tension on the Korean
peninsula while disregarding efforts of the international community to
prevent the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction."
4. Alleged Plot to Influence ROK Election
The Associated Press ("THREE S. KOREAN MEN ARRESTED FOR PLOTTING WITH N.
KOREA," Seoul, 10/01/98) reported that prosecutors said Thursday that Oh
Jong-eun, an aide to former President Kim Young-sam, and two businessmen,
Han Sung-ki and Chang Sok-jung, have been arrested on charges of trying
to convince the DPRK to stage a brief, armed border skirmish last year to
aid the presidential campaign of then-ruling party candidate Lee Hoi-
chang. The prosecutors said that Han met with DPRK officials in Beijing
eight days before the presidential election and asked them to provoke a
brief gunfight with ROK troops at Panmunjom. In return for the DPRK's
help, the three allegedly promised the DPRK a large amount of food and
fertilizer if Lee won the election. The DPRK reportedly declined the
offer. The three accused were arrested secretly early last month by the
ROK Agency for National Security Planning and will be indicted on charges
of violating national security and election laws. Park Jie-won, ROK
President Kim Dae-jung's chief spokesman, stated, "We are waiting for the
prosecution to determine whether the high-level party leadership was
involved in this shocking plot."
5. Clinton Trip to Japan, ROK
Reuters (Arshad Mohammed, "CLINTON CANCELS PLAN TO VISIT INDIA AND
PAKISTAN," Washington, 09/30/98) reported that anonymous US officials
said on Wednesday that US President Bill Clinton would travel to the ROK
and Japan next month in place of his canceled trip to India and Pakistan.
One unnamed official stated, "We have important issues to discuss with
both allies." The officials said that the visits would help ease
displeasure in Japan and the ROK over the fact that Clinton made a nine-
day visit to the PRC this summer without stopping in either country.
6. Clinton Trip to South Asia
White House Press Secretary Mike McCurry ("WHITE HOUSE REPORT, WEDNESDAY,
SEPTEMBER 30, 1998," USIA Transcript, 09/30/98) announced Wednesday that
US President Bill Clinton had decided to postpone his visit to India and
Pakistan. McCurry stated, "We are trying to get an environment created
in which that trip will be most useful in advancing the interests of the
international community and the people of the United States as well as
the people of India and Pakistan." He added that the US has "had good
talks with both India and Pakistan, recognizing the significant role they
play in the region and their significance to the world community. We've
made some progress on the issues that obviously prompted this decision,
nuclear testing and export controls in particular. We're pleased that
(India's) Prime Minister Vajpayee and (Pakistan's) Prime Minister Sharif,
in their meeting last week in New York, announced resumption of foreign
secretary-level talks between the two countries. That's important, and
we hope that those are fruitful exchanges. At the same time, the issues
that we have been discussing with both governments are complex and we
believe will require more time to be addressed to our mutual
satisfaction. Until more progress is achieved, we are not going to be
able to lift the sanctions that are in place and we aren't in a position
to strengthen the kind of bilateral ties with both governments that we
would naturally want to make a featured element of any trip by the
President to the region."
7. New US Nuclear Agency
The Associated Press (Laura Myers, "PENTAGON LAUNCHES NEW NUKE AGENCY,"
Washington, 10/01/98) reported that US Defense Secretary William Cohen
said in a statement that the Defense Department on Thursday created a new
Defense Threat Reduction Agency to deal with modern-day threats of
weapons of mass destruction. Cohen stated, "Today's harsh reality is too
powerful to ignore--at least 25 countries have, or are in the process of
developing, nuclear, biological or chemical weapons and the means to
deliver them." The new agency combines the Defense Special Weapons
Agency, the On-Site Inspection Agency, and the Defense Technology
Security Administration. It will have more than 2,000 employees and a
budget for fiscal year 1999 of US$1.9 billion, about the same as the
current organizations. Deputy Defense Secretary John Hamre said that the
agency is likely to expand as both countries and terrorist organizations
gain weapons. Jay Davis, a nuclear physicist, will serve as director of
the new agency. Davis said that he plans to work closely with US
intelligence agencies. John Pike, a security analyst for the Federation
of American Scientists, applauded the move, saying that the proliferation
of weapons of mass destruction "is a high-priority threat." He added,
however, that the US is not addressing the failures of the Central
Intelligence Agency, Defense Intelligence Agency, and others to work
together to sift through information from many sources. He called this
problem "the most broken part" of US nonproliferation efforts.
1. Implementation of Agreed Framework
The US, the ROK, and Japan met along with other countries Tuesday to
discuss funding for the 1994 Agreed Framework. Representatives from 11
countries met at a hotel in Seoul to review the annual report of the
Korean Peninsula Energy Development Organization (KEDO). The US special
envoy to KEDO, Charles Kartman, made no mention of the funding problems
before Tuesday's session. "From KEDO's perspective the situation is in
good shape," he said. "There is a good deal of information about recent
events in the DPRK to go over," he added. The US administration has
voiced "serious concerns" about Congress's moves to curtail funds for
KEDO and said it would lobby to reverse the decision. (Korea Times, "US,
ROK, Japan MEET OVER FUNDING TO NK REACTOR," 10/01/98)
2. Four Party Talks
Hankook Ilbo ("4 PARTY TALKS TO RESUME OCT. 21-25," Seoul, 09/30/98)
reported that the four party peace talks will resume in Geneva on October
21-25, with the ROK taking a more flexible position regarding the debate
on the status of US forces stationed in ROK. The past two rounds of
Korean peace talks, involving the US and the PRC as well as the two
Koreas, were deadlocked because the DPRK demanded that such issues as the
withdrawal of US forces and the signing of a US-DPRK peace treaty be
included in the list of main agenda items. "As North Korea has strongly
called for discussions on the status of US forces in the ROK, we decided
to give them a chance to raise the issue as part of the long-term
arrangements,'' an ROK official said.
3. US Aid to DPRK
The US Republican Party has submitted a bill to the House of
Representatives which would create preconditions for food aid to the
DPRK, it was reported Wednesday. The draft proposes closer monitoring of
aid and guarantees that none of it is being diverted to the military. If
the DPRK fails to comply with this, then the administration would have to
suspend shipments of aid indefinitely. The revision bill was proposed as
a rider by Representative Christopher Cox during negotiations on the
agricultural budget for 1999. It requires the Clinton administration to
prove that the food is not being used by the military and that the DPRK
release its own stockpiles in conjunction with overseas aid.
Additionally, assistance should receive prior agreement from the ROK
government. (Chosun Ilbo, "GOP PUSH BILL TO HALT AID TO NK," 10/01/98)
4. DPRK Reform
Korea Herald ("PRESIDENT SAYS DPRK TAKING FIRST STEPS TOWARD OPENNESS,"
Seoul, 10/01/98) reported that President Kim Dae-jung said Wednesday that
the DPRK is taking the first steps towards openness that the PRC and the
Soviet Union took. "This shows that there is a change going on in the
DPRK similar to what happened during the initial stage of opening in
China and the former Soviet Union,'' Kim said in an interview with the
daily vernacular Cheju Ilbo. Kim spoke in reference to the DPRK's recent
amendment of its constitution, in which the DPRK adopted some basic
market mechanisms. Kim pointed to the granting of autonomy in factory
management, the introduction of the concept of profitability and the
easing of controls on foreign trade. "We need to assist them so that
this bud of change can blossom into the fruits of reform and openness,''
the President said. Inter-Korean economic cooperation between the
private sectors will accelerate those positive changes in DPRK, he added.
5. DPRK-PRC Relations
Joongang Ilbo ("DPRK EMPHASIZES RELATIONSHIP WITH CHINA", Seoul,
10/01/98) reported that the DPRK's state-owned Korean Central
Broadcasting Agency reported on September 30 that the DPRK government
emphasized its relationship with the PRC in commemoration of the 49th
anniversary of the PRC government. Moon Jae-chul, a high-ranking
official said, "The amity between DPRK and China has developed since its
beginning. The people of both countries will continue this tradition."
The PRC Ambassador to the DPRK also said, "The friendship between China
and the DPRK has developed through both new and established procedures.
Keeping the friendship is our unshakable attitude.
6. Escape of Korean War POW
Chang Moo-hwan, aged seventy-two, who had been captured by DPRK troops
during the Korean War, escaped via a third country and landed at Inchon
port Monday morning. He is the third POW to escape to date, following
Cho Chang-ho in 1994 and Yang Soon-yong in December of last year.
According to the ROK Ministry of National Defense (MOND), Chang was
captured in July 1953 and had been living in a mining compound in Hambuk
province. He escaped to the PRC across the Tumen River and was able to
contact his wife in Ulchin, Kyongbuk province in the ROK. MOND is
arranging for him to meet his family and will hold a news conference. It
estimates that between 28,000 to 37,000 ROK soldiers were taken prisoner
during the war and that around 10 percent are still alive. (Chosun Ilbo,
"ONE MORE KOREAN WAR POW RETURNS," 10/01/98)
7. DPRK Seizure of Korean-American
Concerns were raised Wednesday that the Korean-American president of the
Beijing Institute of Science and Technology, Kim Jin-kyong (James Kim)
has been detained by DPRK authorities. Kim visited Pyongyang on
September 12 and was to have returned September 19. Authorities in the
DPRK requested that he extend his visit by a week, which he did, but
since then no word has been heard from him. The US State Department
confirmed that Kim had been detained in Pyongyang. There are strong
rumors that his detention is connected to the purge of liberals such as
Kim Jong-wu, chief of the Overseas Economic Cooperation Council.
Additionally, the possibility of him being involved in espionage was
raised because of his frequent visits to the ROK, the DPRK, and the US.
Since 1987, Kim Jin-kyong actively carried out projects to help the DPRK,
by providing medicine and aid. His visit was to discuss the building of
a hospital. He was accompanied by the Reverend Kwak Sun-hee, who
returned alone. (Chosun Ilbo, "KOREAN-AMERICAN FEARED DETAINED IN NK,"
10/01/98)
8. 1996 Murder of ROK Diplomat
Chosun Ilbo ("RUSSIA ENDS DIPLOMATIC MURDER INVESTIGATION," Seoul,
09/30/98) reported that two years after the murder of Choi Deok-keun, the
ROK consul general in Vladivostok, the Russian investigation into the
affair has concluded that there was no DPRK involvement in his death. An
official from the ROK Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade (MOFAT) said
that Russia is likely to release a detailed report in October with this
conclusion. It is in sharp contrast to the ROK government's contention
that the DPRK sent agents to assassinate him. A high-ranking ROK
government official said that the ROK had discovered proof of the DPRK's
involvement that was unavailable to Russian authorities because DPRK
diplomats were included among the suspects. One of the reasons for the
strong belief is that the second autopsy performed on Choi's body found
traces of a toxin used in fountain pen needle guns carried by DPRK
agents. Additionally, Russian investigators had admitted that
eyewitnesses described the murderers as Asian. Choi had been
investigating large-scale drug smuggling by the DPRK at the time. An ROK
government official said that there is a way to find clear evidence and
that if Russia fails to do so, it can be construed as an unfriendly act
that may lead to tension. Choi was murdered at 8:00pm on August 1, 1996,
on the staircase leading to his apartment.
9. ROK Grants Citizenship to Korean-Japanese
Korea Herald ("ROK TO GRANT CITIZENSHIP TO PRO NORTH KOREANS IN JAPAN,"
Seoul, 10/01/98) reported that the ROK is planning to grant citizenship
to pro-DPRK ethnic Korean residents in Japan. The pro-DPRK residents,
who number about 200,000, live in a legal limbo because Japan does not
have formal relations with the DPRK. On the other hand, 600,000 pro-ROK
residents gained legal status as ROK nationals when the ROK established
official relations with Japan in 1965. Many of the ethnic Koreans, be
they pro-ROK or pro-DPRK, are those who were mobilized for Japan's war
efforts before 1945 and their descendants. Representative Namkung Jin, a
policy coordinator at the ruling National Congress for New Politics, said
that members of Chochongnyon, the organization of pro-DPRK residents,
would be allowed to visit the ROK even if they refuse to renounce their
membership in the organization. When they visit the ROK, Representative
Jin said, they will be allowed to apply for citizenship. In the past,
the ROK government issued passports and granted citizenship to those who
had dissociated themselves from Chochongnyon. Representative Jin said
that the ruling party will soon start talks with the government on
administrative measures so that those wishing to take advantage of the
program can be granted citizenship when President Kim Dae-jung returns
from his state visit to Japan next week.
1. Indian-Pakistan Nuclear Programs
[Ed. note: The following commentary is by Ralph A. Cossa, Executive
Director of the Pacific Forum CSIS in Honolulu, a non-profit, foreign
policy research institute affiliated with the Center for Strategic and
International Studies (CSIS) in Washington, DC. Mr. Cossa's previously contributed NAPSNet Policy Forum Online (#11), Monitoring the Agreed
Framework.]
"India-Pakistan: Signing the CTBT is Not Enough!" by Ralph A. Cossa
The Prime Ministers of India and Pakistan have both intimated that their
countries might be willing to sign the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty
(CTBT) before the scheduled September 1999 CTBT review
conference...provided certain conditions are met.
"Pakistan's adherence to the treaty will take place only in conditions
free from coercion or pressure," said Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif,
arguing for a complete lifting of international sanctions. And, of
course, if India resumes testing, then all bets are off. India is
looking not only for a lifting of sanctions and recognition as a nuclear
power, but also wants greater access to dual-use nuclear-energy
technology. In return, Prime Minister Vajpayee is willing to forego
future tests since "whatever data we required we have collected; there is
no need for further tests."
The fact that both nations are rethinking their earlier refusal to sign
the CTBT is a positive sign since the treaty cannot enter into force
without their signatures; it is not sufficient cause to remove sanctions
or reduce the pressure on both states to halt their nuclear weapons
programs. A halt in testing now, while desirable, accomplishes little,
as Vajpayee himself admits. The concern now is for both to refrain from
building weapons arsenals and actually deploying missiles with nuclear
warheads in the field.
The international community faces two pressing tasks. One is to stem the
tide of additional proliferation. (Why should we believe it will stop
with India and Pakistan, especially if the global response is weak or
short-lived?) The second is to convince India and Pakistan to at least
halt, if not reverse, their self-destructive behavior. Returning to
"business as usual" with India and Pakistan in return merely for a "no
more tests" pledge serves neither purpose. It encourages others to
follow India's and Pakistan's lead and does little to move the hands of
the Doomsday Clock (advanced when both nations conducted nuclear tests
last May in defiance of world public opinion) further back from midnight.
Instead, it validates past actions and encourages India's government in
particular to pursue its nuclear weapons development and deployment
program.
What is really needed is for both nations to step back from the nuclear
precipice and sign not just the CTBT but the Nuclear Non-Proliferation
Treaty as non-nuclear weapons states. But what are the odds of this
happening? Perhaps not as bad as one would think, particularly if the
US, Japan and other key creditor states and institutions hold firm.
The White House's leadership is particularly critical in this regard.
The days of US agents covertly undermining undesirable foreign
governments, thankfully, are over. But they should not be replaced by
overt moves by public officials to embolden governments whose policies
undermine US national security interests and threaten the prospects for
peace in South Asia, if not globally. There are many in India who are
openly questioning not only the Bharatiya Janata Party's (BJP) dangerous
nuclear weapons policies but also its incendiary policies toward its
Pakistani neighbors as well as its own Moslem minorities. The BJP
government has arrogantly predicted that the rest of the world would
"come to its senses" and endorse its nuclear policies; does President
Clinton want to validate this assertion?
The first step toward turning back the Doomsday Clock is to recognize the
profound differences in Indian and Pakistani motivation for going
nuclear. India is driven by the mistaken assumption that nuclear weapons
will give it the recognition and respect it believes it deserves as the
world's largest democracy. Envy of China's more elevated status (China
is a permanent member of the UN Security Council (UNSC) and an accepted
nuclear power), more so than its stated "China threat" justification, is
another major, related factor.
Pakistan's primary motive, plain and simple, is fear of India, the
gigantic neighbor with which it has fought three wars and has outstanding
territorial disputes. This fear, present even in the best of times, has
been magnified by the BJP's openly antagonistic policies. But, is
Pakistan condemned forever to follow India's bad examples rather than
pursuing a higher independent path? Or, will Pakistan's desperate need
for economic relief permit it to take the first step, provided its basic
security fears are addressed?
With Pakistan's best friend, China, serving as interlocutor, Islamabad
should be approached with the following deal: Pakistan gives up its
nuclear program and signs the CTBT and NPT under full safeguards in
return for a full lifting of sanctions, increased economic assistance,
and positive security assurances not just from China or the US, but from
the UNSC, which includes all five recognized nuclear weapons states.
Under such conditions, President Clinton would pledge to visit Pakistan
this fall, while offering also to visit India if New Delhi follows suit.
Such a move not only gives Prime Minister Sharif the incentive he needs
to move Pakistan forward, it provides the best hope of convincing the BJP
government to change its policy or, failing that, of convincing the
Indian people to change their government in favor of one that is willing
to earn, rather than merely demand, the international respect India
desires.
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