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Northeast Asia Peace and Security Network DAILY REPORT For Tuesday, October 13, 1998, from Berkeley, California, USA |
1. Four-Party Peace Talks
The Associated Press ("KOREAN PEACE TALKS RESUME OCT. 20," Seoul,
10/13/98) reported that four-party peace talks for the Korean Peninsula
involving the ROK, the DPRK, the US, and the PRC will resume in Geneva on
October 20. The DPRK's Korean Central News Agency on Monday quoted an
unidentified DPRK Foreign Ministry spokesman as saying that the main
focus of the talks should be the withdrawal of US troops from the ROK and
the signing of a DPRK-US peace treaty. The spokesman said that the two
issues are "the key to eliminating the root cause of the acute political
and military confrontation on the Korean Peninsula." On Tuesday, ROK
Foreign Minister Hong Soon-young urged the US Congress to release US$35
million in oil and other aid that the Clinton administration pledged to
give the DPRK under the 1994 Geneva agreement. Hong stated, "If the
United States neglects its part of the agreement, it may give North Korea
an excuse to break up the agreement ... escalating tension in Korea."
2. US Policy toward DPRK
The Wall Street Journal carried an opinion article by Fred C. Ikle,
former US undersecretary of defense and currently at the Center for
Strategic and International Studies ("U.S. FOLLY MAY START ANOTHER KOREAN
WAR," 10/12/98, A18) which criticized the Clinton administration for
"repurchas[ing] North Korea's broken promises." The author argued that
the decision to engage the DPRK was based on false hopes that the
collapse of the Soviet Union would lead to a similar opening up of the
DPRK. He stated, "To think that today's North Korean leadership can be
nudged toward reform with multibillion-dollar bribes is like trying to
propitiate an unreformed serial killer with an offer of parole." He
maintained that, since the Korean War, "it has been North Korea's driving
ambition to subjugate the whole of the peninsula, and no other regime has
been so consistently mendacious, persistently aggressive or unspeakably
cruel to its own people on behalf of its ambition." He said that, while
it appears that the DPRK has kept its promise to can its spent reactor
fuel rods, "since North Korea maintains possession of these containers,
it can open them at any time. Besides, the two new reactors promised to
North Korea will yield several times more plutonium than its previous
reactor, which it has promised to keep shut down." He added that the
Agreed Framework has encouraged the DPRK to engage in "blackmail," by
demanding ever-more food aid and compensation for ending its missile
development program. The author concluded, "Purchasing worthless
promises may serve to assuage our fears of a nuclear North Korea for a
while. But continued appeasement will make North Korea only more
skillful in exploiting South Korean and American anxieties. On present
course, U.S. weakness will persuade the dictatorship that it can safely
implement its long-term strategy--to launch a massive attack on the South
while relying on its weapons of mass destruction to deter a decisive U.S.
response."
3. ROK-DPRK Economic Cooperation
The Associated Press ("HYUNDAI HEAD TO MEET N.KOREA LEADER," Seoul,
10/12/98) reported that Kim Yun-kyu, a senior executive of the Hyundai
business group, said Monday that Hyundai founder Chung Ju-yung plans to
visit the DPRK later this month and meet leader Kim Jong-il. Kim stated,
"There is a high probability that honorary chairman Chung will visit
North Korea within this month and have a meeting with leader Kim Jong
Il." He added that Hyundai expects to start tours to Mt. Kumgang in the
DPRK later this month.
The Associated Press ("HYUNDAI SENDS CONSTRUCTION WORKERS, EQUIPMENT TO
NORTH KOREA," Seoul, 10/13/98) reported that the Hyundai business group
sent 83 construction workers and equipment to Changjon in the DPRK
Tuesday to build port facilities for its proposed sightseeing tours to
Mt. Kumgang. The workers also will build rest centers, restaurants, and
other tourism-related facilities on and around the mountain. Meanwhile,
the DPRK said in a letter to Hyundai Tuesday that it would consider
accepting an ROK government proposal to launch a joint probe of the death
of 71 cattle donated by Hyundai.
Dow Jones Newswires (Chang Woo-hyuk, "S KOREA KUMGANGSAN GRP TO BUILD
HOTEL, SKI RESORT IN N KOREA," Seoul, 10/13/98) reported that the ROK's
Kumgangsan International Group's Chairman Pak Bo-hi said Tuesday that he
has agreed with the DPRK to build hotels, ski resorts, and golf courses
near Mt. Kumgang. Pak said that the group also agreed to launch
sightseeing ships to Mt. Kumgang at the same time Hyundai Group
inaugurates its tour.
4. ROK MIAs from Korean War
The Associated Press ("SOUTH KOREA SEEKS KOREAN WAR MIAS," Seoul,
10/12/98) reported that the ROK Defense Ministry said Monday that it will
launch a campaign to account for ROK soldiers missing from the Korean
War. The ROK has said that more than 40,000 prisoners were not returned
at the end of the war, but the DPRK says all POWs went home in 1953. The
move follows the recent escape from the DPRK of ROK prisoner of war Chang
Moon-hwan.
5. DPRK Defector
The Associated Press ("N. KOREAN MAN DEFECTS TO S. KOREA," Seoul,
10/13/98) reported that the ROK Agency for National Security Planning
said that Shim Sin-bok, who identified himself as a former DPRK army
lieutenant colonel, arrived in Seoul Tuesday and sought asylum. Shim
said that he fled the DPRK last year and had been living in hiding in an
unidentified third country. Shim told investigators that he fled the
DPRK because he was caught criticizing what he believed was the
undemocratic rule of leader Kim Jong-il.
6. Japanese Emperor's Visit to ROK
Reuters ("N. KOREA SLAMS SOUTH'S INVITE OF JAPANESE EMPEROR," Tokyo,
10/11/98) reported that the DPRK's official Korean Central News Agency on
Sunday criticized ROK President Kim Dae-jung's invitation for the
Japanese emperor to visit the ROK. The broadcast called Japanese Emperor
Akihito "a descendant of the special-class criminal who committed
immeasurable crimes against the Korean people." It added that a visit by
the Japanese emperor would "hurt the national feelings of the Korean
people." It said that Kim's invitation was "a petty act of a person who
has no iota of self-respect and dignity."
7. Japanese Smuggling to DPRK
Reuters ("JAPAN TRADERS NABBED FOR N. KOREAN EXPORTS," Tokyo, 10/13/98)
reported that Japanese police said on Tuesday that they had arrested
Kenichi Li, president of small Tokyo-based trading house Daishin Shoji
K.K., and company director Nobuo Li, on suspicion of illegally selling
products to the DPRK that could be diverted for military use. The two
businessmen were suspected of exporting 2,300 valves for scuba-diving air
tanks in 1996 without the trade minister's approval. The valves are on a
list of export items restricted by the 1996 Wassenaar Arrangement that
replaced the COCOM (Coordinating Committee on Multilateral Export
Controls) accord. Japanese police officials said that the DPRK appeared
to have tried to get sophisticated diving gear for use by its military.
Some Japanese experts reportedly believe that Japan's technology has been
used to develop the DPRK's ballistic missiles and submarines.
8. DPRK Famine
The Associated Press ("NORTH KOREA FACES MEAGER HARVEST," Beijing,
10/10/98) reported that Namanga Ngongi, deputy head of the UN World Food
Program, said Saturday that the harvest in the DPRK will be no better
this year than last year and could be worse. He said that the DPRK needs
a minimum of about 5 million tons of grain to feed its 23 million people,
but managed last year to harvest just 2.8 million tons. He stated,
"Every year it gets worse." He added that the DPRK had made parts of the
country off-limits to the UN program, reducing the number of people who
get aid from 6.7 million to 5.8 million. He said that the government
cited security concerns for its decision, and said the ban would be
temporary. Ngongi, who spent four days inspecting UN relief efforts in
the DPRK, said people looked better than during a visit last year, but "a
large part of the population is very weak." He stated, "Everybody has
been consuming at a very low level. So they may not be severely
malnourished, but they are not well nourished at all." Ngongi said he
saw malnourished children who were supposedly 10 or 11 years old, but
appeared to be only 4 or 5. He added that about 30 percent of the
children in one primary school he visited were too weak to come to
school. He stated, "A lot of people are alive today thanks to the
international community's support."
Reuters ("UN OFFICIAL SAYS N. KOREA FOOD SITUATION IMPROVING," Geneva,
10/09/98) reported that Klemens van de Sand, deputy head of the Rome-
based International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD), said on
Friday that the food situation in the DPRK is improving. At a news
conference following a one-week visit to the DPRK, van de Sand reported
that food production and food security had visibly improved in households
he randomly visited. He stated, "There has been a positive trend,"
adding he had not come across any evidence of deaths from starvation. He
also said, "There is clearly an increase in food production this year.
The situation is much better this year than at the beginning of last
year." IFAD has provided loans totaling US$45 million to the DPRK for
agricultural projects, including household credits to increase food
production. Van de Sand said that IFAD's recent deliveries of fertilizer,
seed, and pesticide as well as credits have helped to improve the
situation for target households in poor cooperatives and allowed them to
buy goats, rabbits, geese and chicken as well as animal feed.
9. PRC-Taiwan Talks
The Associated Press (Thomas Wagner, "CHINA, TAIWAN OPEN TALKS
WEDNESDAY," Taipei, 10/12/98), the New York Times (Erik Eckholm,
"BEIJING-TAIWAN TALKS: INTIMATE RIVALS TO MEET," Xiamen, 10/12/98, A6),
and the Washington Post (John Pomfret, "2 YEARS AFTER SABER-RATTLING,
CHINA, TAIWAN SET FOR TALKS," Beijing, 10/13/98, A10) reported that
Taiwan Premier Vincent Siew said Monday that Koo Chen-fu would be willing
to discuss any issue that would help get talks with the PRC back on track
when he meets with PRC officials starting Wednesday. Siew stated, "We
hope that the two sides will use new thinking and a new approach to face
the issues (and) rebuild a framework for relations suited to the
conditions of separation between the two sides." Foreign Minister Jason
Hu, however, stated, "I don't think it would serve any purpose to talk
about reunification at this moment. If we don't even trust each other,
there is not enough good will on either side." An unnamed Western
diplomat in Beijing said that, regardless of their outcome, the talks
serve a useful purpose. He stated, "For Taiwan, if China is talking,
it's not attacking, and for China, if Taiwan is talking, it's not
declaring independence." Another senior Western diplomat stated, "These
talks are a way for Taiwan to kick the can down the road and hope that
something will come up to resolve the issue. Nobody there has got a
solution yet." Fan Xihou, director of the Taiwan Research Institute of
Xiamen University, said that a major agreement seems unlikely in the next
three to five years. He added that in the long run, however, "time will
be against Taiwan" as the PRC gains military and economic strength.
The Associated Press (Christopher Bodeen, "TAIWAN CALLS FOR RECOGNITION,"
Taipei, 10/13/98) reported that top Taiwan negotiator Koo Chen-fu said
Tuesday that he hoped his upcoming informal talks with his PRC
counterpart Wang Daohan would help end a three-year break in
negotiations. Koo stated, "This is a starting point for rebuilding trust
between the sides." Koo is also scheduled to meet PRC President Jiang
Zemin and Vice Premier Qian Qichen in Beijing on Sunday. In Beijing, PRC
Foreign Ministry spokesman Tang Guoqiang reiterated the PRC's position
that there is only one China and Taiwan is part of it. He added that the
talks this week will be a "major event" between the two sides, and that
the PRC hopes they will improve the atmosphere and pave the way for
holding political negotiations soon.
The Associated Press ("TAIWAN LEADER URGES REUNIFICATION," Taipei,
10/10/98) and Reuters (Lawrence Chung, "TAIWAN'S LEE CALLS FOR PEACE WITH
CHINA," Taipei, 10/10/98) reported that Taiwan President Lee Teng-hui, in
a speech commemorating National Day on Saturday, called for further
dialogue with the PRC. Lee stated, "Let us push for more exchanges
across the Taiwan Straits ... to help create long-lasting welfare of all
Chinese people." He urged the PRC to "drastically reform its political
and social systems," and said he hoped the two sides would "take gradual
steps to seek reunification." However, he added that Taiwan "will
continue to build up a modern defense force to maintain our national
security ... and promote our pragmatic diplomacy by participating in
international society to increase our international status." Taiwan
political analyst Hu Fu stated, "On an occasion like this, Lee's comments
were merely a cliche. He definitely had no intention to provoke the
mainland, especially before the Koo-Jiang meeting." On Friday, Lee said
that the PRC and Taiwan should take a "gradualist approach" to
reunification. He stated, "We are looking forward to constructive
dialogue between the two sides of the Taiwan straits based on the reality
of divided rule."
10. US Arms Sales to Taiwan
Reuters ("U.S. AIMS TO SELL NINE CHINOOKS TO TAIWAN -AGENCY," Taipei,
10/11/98) reported that Taiwan's state-funded Central News Agency said
Sunday that the US is expected to approve a US$486 million deal to sell
nine Chinook heavy-lift helicopters to Taiwan. The planned deal includes
nine Boeing CH-47SD (Super D) Chinook helicopters, three T55-L-714A spare
turbine engines, contractor engineering, and technical support services,
the agency said. The US Department of Defense said that Taiwan would use
the helicopters to improve its ability to transport personnel and cargo
for defense and humanitarian assistance. It added that the sales would
not affect the military balance in the Taiwan Straits. Taiwan's defense
ministry declined to comment on the planned sales, but a military source
said that the US Congress was expected to approve the deal. The deal is
the fourth major military sale by the US to Taiwan in 1998, at a total
cost of around US$1.3 billion.
11. PRC-Japan Relations
The Associated Press ("JAPAN WANTS AGREEMENT WITH CHINA OVER PAINFUL WAR
HISTORY," Tokyo, 10/13/98) reported that Japanese Foreign Minister
Masahiko Komura said Tuesday that Japan hopes to reach a mutual
understanding with the PRC over the wartime history between the two
nations in time for PRC President Jiang Zemin's upcoming visit. Komura
said that the two sides are in final discussions aimed at reaching a
common understanding of Japan's aggression against China. He added, "It
would be nice if we can issue a joint statement." Jiang's visit,
originally scheduled for early September, has been postponed because of
massive flooding in the PRC. He is now expected by the end of this year,
possibly as early as after the November 17-18 summit of leaders of the
Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Forum in Kuala Lumpur.
12. US Troops in Asia
The Associated Press ("ASIAN, AMERICAN WOMEN SEEK CHANGES IN OVERSEAS
TROOP PRESENCE," Washington, 10/09/98) reported that the East Asia/U.S.
Network Against U.S. Militarism, a coalition of Asian and US women, said
Friday that they will meet next week with members of the Clinton
administration and Congress to lobby for changes in agreements
authorizing US troop presence in Japan, the ROK, and the Philippines.
Margo Okazawa-Rey, a professor at San Francisco State University, stated,
"We recognize Washington DC as the place where U.S. military policy is
determined. The purpose of our meeting is to expose the issues of
military presence." She said that acts of violence by US forces in Asia
"happen far too often to be overlooked or accepted as random
occurrences." US Marine Major Bryan Salas stated, "We take all their
concerns very seriously. The U.S. and Japanese government have agreed
that the U.S. military presence on Okinawa is crucial to the security and
stability of the entire Asia-Pacific region. We want to be good
neighbors."
1. DPRK Reactor Construction
JoongAng Ilbo ("KEPCO TO CONTINUE DPRK REACTOR CONSTRUCTION," Seoul,
10/12/98) reported that the Korea Electric Power Corporation (KEPCO),
which is in charge of laying the foundation for the light-water reactor
in Shinpo, DPRK, will keep its manpower and equipment in spite of the
October 15 expiration of the contract for the project. This means that
KEPCO will continue to work on the main construction for awhile without a
contract. KEPCO president Chang Young-shik said on October 12, "We are
worried about the main construction because no agreement has been reached
on this issue; yet, we have decided to keep our personnel and equipment
there until the main contract is signed after consultation with the
government officials." He explained, "At first we were going to begin
the main construction work on October 16, but as negotiations on the
distribution of construction costs were not yet concluded between the
ROK, the US, and Japan, we are worried about the halting of this
construction work in case the fundamental construction cost dries up."
KEPCO made a contract on foundation work with KEDO on August 15, 1997,
and has been working in the DPRK with 130 ROK and 170 DPRK workers.
2. Kim Dae-jung's Japan Trip
JoongAng Ilbo ("CHUNG WA DAE CONFERENCE," Seoul, 10/12/98) reported that
on October 12, President Kim Dae-jung hosted a conference in which he
explained the achievements garnered from his visit to Japan. He invited
all ROK major party leaders including Lee Hoi-chang, the leader of the
main opposition Grand National Party. Kim said that his visit to Japan
was a good chance to dispose of past matters and to confirm a future-
oriented partnership between the two countries. He asked for cooperation
for the constant development of relations with Japan. Lee Hoi-chang
said, "The President's visit should be a high point in foreign policy
because a constructive ROK-Japan relationship was built. However, the
government has to be careful because Japanese high-ranking officials have
uttered provocative comments in the past." Lee also said, "I hope the
President handles domestic matters as well including relations between
the ruling and opposition parties." President Kim did not comment on the
strained political relations in the ROK.
3. ROK Anti-Corruption Effort
Chosun Ilbo ("KIM URGES ANTI-CORRUPTION MEASURES," Seoul, 10/13/98)
reported that ROK President Kim Dae-jung said that the Ministry of
Government Administration and Internal Affairs, the Ministry of Justice,
and the Board of Audit and Inspection (BAI) must work out measures to
clean up corruption and irregularities in government administration.
Presiding over a cabinet meeting on Monday for the first time since his
state visit to Japan, Kim called for all cabinet members to begin an all-
out anti-corruption campaign. Kim pointed out that corrupt and unfair
practices have been cleaned out substantially in the upper echelons of
government officials, but that corruption remained a problem at the lower
levels of government. Kim also warned that the public would no longer
tolerate the corruption of public officials.
4. ROK-IMF Talks
Korea Herald ("IMF BEGIN 4TH QUARTER POLICY TALKS," Seoul, 10/13/98)
reported that the ROK government and the International Monetary Fund
(IMF) began their policy consultation on October 12 to fine-tune the
ROK's fiscal and economic policies for the last quarter of 1998, while
checking on the implementation of the IMF's bailout programs. Topping
the agenda at the two-week long quarterly talks will be the revision of
macroeconomic targets, including growth rates for next year and repayment
of the loans by the IMF to the ROK coming due in December, said officials
at the ROK Ministry of Finance and Economy. In the last quarterly talks,
the ROK government and the IMF agreed on negative 4 percent growth for
this year, which is likely to be revised downward to minus 6 or 7 percent
this time. The ROK government recently revised its Gross Domestic
Product growth forecast for this year to negative 5 to 6 percent, while
the IMF predicted a more pessimistic 7-percent contraction in its World
Economic Outlook (October 1 issue). For next year, the government aims
to achieve growth of at least 2 percent through expanded fiscal spending,
but the IMF expects the ROK economy to shrink by 1 percent. Whether to
repay US$2.78 billion in loans could be a thorny issue. The IMF is
asking the ROK to service the debt by year's end, while the ROK is
seeking to roll it over and maintain its foreign exchange reserves. The
fourth-quarter consultation began with a two-day seminar on loan
valuation and credit reviews with the Banking Supervisory Authority. The
main talks with top government officials concerning policy issues are to
start Wednesday.
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