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Northeast Asia Peace and Security Network DAILY REPORT For Wednesday, October 14, 1998, from Berkeley, California, USA |
1. Future of Agreed Framework
Reuters ("N.KOREA READY TO SEE NUCLEAR PACT WITH US BROKEN," Tokyo,
10/14/98) reported that the DPRK's Korean Central News Agency (KCNA), in
a report monitored Wednesday, denied that the DPRK's underground
construction constitutes a violation of the 1994 Agreed Framework. KCNA
stated, "The DPRK has a lot of civil underground structures now under
construction. The U.S. demands to verify them, claiming that they are
'underground nuclear facilities'." The report said that the allegations
were an attempt to disarm the DPRK and to violate its sovereignty. It
added, "If the U.S. policy is to break the framework agreement, the DPRK
has no intention to keep the U.S. from doing so." It stated, "If the
U.S. side considers the framework agreement a white elephant, it is free
to break it. The DPRK does not care about it."
2. DPRK Defectors
Reuters ("TWO N.KOREA SOLDIERS DEFECT ACROSS BORDER - SEOUL," Seoul,
10/14/98) reported that the ROK Defense Ministry said that two DPRK
soldiers walked across the Demilitarized Zone Wednesday to defect. An
ROK defense ministry official said that a male DPRK captain and a female
sergeant crossed the border near the northeastern town of Cholwon at 0645
local time. Local media said the captain was a medic and the sergeant
was a telephone operator in the DPRK army.
3. PRC-Taiwan Talks
Reuters (Benjamin Kang Lim, "TAIWAN ENVOY IN CHINA, GAP SEEN WIDE,"
Shanghai, 10/14/98) and the Associated Press (Charles Hutzler, "CHINA,
TAIWAN OFFICIALS MEET," Shanghai, 10/14/98) reported that Koo Chen-fu,
head of Taiwan's semi-official Straits Exchange Foundation, arrived in
Shanghai Wednesday and resumed talks with his PRC counterpart, Wang
Daohan. Before entering the talks, Koo stated, "We should not have any
pre-conditions." He added, "We cannot resolve all our problems on one
occasion." Chang Jung-kung, a spokesman for the Taiwan side, stated,
"There is not enough mutual trust." After more than an hour of talks
Wednesday, Tang Shubei, China's number two negotiator with Taiwan,
stated, "There are major differences between the two sides on a series of
political issues. This is an objective fact." He added, "We say
political dialogue. Taiwan says constructive dialogue. But the common
point is everyone agrees to a dialogue. I can tell you this type of
political dialogue has already started." Koo's spokesman, Shi Hwei-yow,
suggested that the PRC should learn from Taiwan's experience with
democratic and economic progress. An unnamed PRC official said that
Taiwan needed to lift its ban on direct trade, transport, and postal
links with the PRC. He added that political negotiations were needed to
move relations forward.
The Wall Street Journal (Leslie Chang, "HIGH HOPES RIDE ON TALKS BETWEEN
CHINA AND TAIWAN," 10/14/98) reported that political analysts said that
the current PRC-Taiwan talks are a sign of easing tensions across the
Taiwan Straits. Andrew Yang, a PRC-watcher based in Taipei, stated,
"Taipei is sending a clear message that this is the time to sit down and
talk. Beijing will take this opportunity to have a more formal
dialogue." He added, "Beijing is not satisfied with the status quo,
because status quo means Taiwan drifts further and further away from
China." However, Lu Ya-li, a political scientist at National Taiwan
University, stated, "In Taiwan, the people most knowledgeable about China
are the young businesspeople." He added that this fact could promise
better understanding over time.
The San Jose Mercury News (Michael Dorgan, "HISTORIC MEETING ACROSS THE
TAIWAN STRAIT," Taipei, 10/13/98) reported that Roy Y.Y. Wu, spokesman
for Taiwan's Ministry of Foreign Affairs, played down the significance of
Koo Chen-fu's visit to the PRC. Wu stated, "It's only a meeting. It's
not a talk, not a negotiation. It's not a political talk at all. It's
only a visit." He added, "I think it is time now for the PRC to open its
eyes to the realities. We have never been part of them. They have never
had jurisdiction over the ROC (Republic of China) -- ever." Meanwhile,
Ma Ying-jeou, Taipei mayoral candidate of the ruling Kuomintang Party,
stated, "I think the best thing we can do now is maintain the status quo,
without saying what the status quo is."
4. Taiwanese Nuclear Dump
The Associated Press ("CHINESE OFFICIAL CONDEMNS TAIWAN NUCLEAR WASTE
DUMP PLANS," Taipei, 10/14/98) reported that Taiwan's China Times Express
said that Zhang Jiakun, deputy governor of the PRC's Fujian province,
spoke out Wednesday against a planned Taiwanese radioactive waste dump.
Zhang said that the proposed dump on Taiwanese-controlled Little Wuchiu
Island would threaten parts of Fujian that lie as little as 15 kilometers
(9 miles) away. Zhang called on fishermen from the Wuchiu island group
and Fujian to join forces to fight against the dump. Zhang arrived in
Taipei Tuesday at the head of a small delegation and is calling on
businessmen who have investments in Fujian. He is the highest-ranking
local-level PRC official to visit Taiwan since 1949.
5. Japanese Economic Crisis
The Associated Press ("JAPAN GOV'T EXPECTS SLOW RECOVERY," Tokyo,
10/14/98) reported that Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Hiromu Nonaka
said that the government expects the economy could take up to three years
to recover instead of the two years it previously projected. Nonaka was
quoted as saying, "We think the economy will recover in two or three
years." Meanwhile, the Economic Strategy Council urged the government to
inject billions of dollars into financial institutions and to approve
more than US$84 billion in stimulus spending.
6. Asian Financial Crisis
The Los Angeles Times (Mark Magnier, "GUARDED OPTIMISM IS TAKING SHAPE IN
ASIA," Singapore, 10/14/98) reported that Asian government, financial,
and corporate leaders said that the Asian economy has in the last few
weeks shown signs that the worst of the economic crisis may be over. ROK
Trade Minister Duck-soo Han stated, "Asia's outlook is improved." Brian
C. Lippy, managing director of Tokai Asia Ltd., a hedge fund backed by
Japanese capital, stated, "I think it's going to be a long, hard road.
But there's now some cautious optimism."
7. Indian, Pakistani Adherence to CTBT
The Washington Post (Pamela Constable, "TO SIGN OR NOT TO SIGN?" New
Delhi, 10/14/98, A17) reported that domestic considerations in India and
Pakistan may prevent both countries from signing the Comprehensive Test
Ban Treaty (CTBT). Natwar Singh, a former Indian foreign minister and
senior leader of the opposition Congress party, stated, "We have obeyed
the rules for 50 years, we have no record of aggression, we don't covet
territory. No one has the right to tell us we cannot have the nuclear
option." He said that the US "should remember, we are not a banana
republic." He added that, by sanctioning India while ignoring the PRC's
nuclear advancements, the US is "pampering a dictatorship and pestering a
democracy." However, K. Subrahmanyam, a foreign policy columnist for the
Hindu Times, stated, "We have shown the world we can test. We have shown
the world we can stand up to pressure. There is no need for us to keep
showing the world perpetually. Signing [the CTBT] wouldn't cost us much,
and it would give us a feeling of being good.... Why not humor them a
bit?" An unnamed Indian Foreign Ministry official warned, "It is easy to
demonize the BJP (Bharatiya Janata Party) on this treaty. There is no
broad understanding of it. The Congress party has no other major issues,
and this could give them a handle." He added, however, that if the BJP
does well in November, the government could move more swiftly toward
signing the CTBT. In Pakistan, Qazi Hussain Ahmad, leader of the Jamiat-
e-Islami movement, stated, "Do the United States, England, France have
orders from God that they should be nuclear powers and not us?" Khurshid
Ahmed, chairman of the Institute of Policy Studies in Islamabad, wrote
recently "The present leadership of the country has taken a road which
... would entangle us more and more in the American trap." He said that,
without proper safeguards, the CTBT would squander Pakistan's new stature
as a nuclear power.
8. US Nuclear Weapons Arsenal
The Washington Post carried an opinion article (Walter Pincus, "RE-READ
HIS LIPS: REDUCE ARMS NOW," 10/11/98, C01) which called on the US to move
to reduce its nuclear weapon arsenal as a means to promote disarmament
worldwide. The article suggested that US President Bill Clinton "could
order deactivation of the 50 MX ICBMs now on alert, each with 10
warheads; begin retiring half the 18 Trident ballistic missile submarines
that each have 28 sea-launched ICBMs; and open the safety switches of the
500 Minuteman III missiles, with three warheads each, so that they would
be temporarily immobilized." The author argued, "It would be a stunning
move that would greatly strengthen our arguments against nuclear
proliferation and encourage the signing of the nuclear non-proliferation
treaty by nuclear nations, such as India and Pakistan, which last month
expressed receptiveness toward the agreement." The article quoted former
US Defense Secretary Robert S. McNamara as saying that a unilateral US
reduction of strategic weapons is "exactly what I think should be done."
He said that the Russians have turned to a first-use of nuclear weapons
strategy because their armed forces have collapsed and they fear a US
first strike. McNamara stated, "They would respond because they know
nuclear weapons are not the answer to their problems."
1. Missing DPRK Ambassador
Chosun Ilbo ("DPRK AMBASSADOR DESIGNATE TO POLAND MISSING," Seoul,
10/13/98) reported that the DPRK ambassador designate to Poland, Kim
Pyong-il, half-brother of Kim Jong-il, has not handed his credentials
over to the Polish government since his designation in January. Kim
Pyong-il, a son of Kim Song-ae, the second wife of Kim Il-sung, served as
ambassador to Hungary and Bulgaria until he was transferred to Finland in
1994. An official from the ROK Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade
(MOFAT) said that the DPRK had promised that the credentials would be
delivered by the end of September but then suddenly canceled this. The
whereabouts of Kim Pyong-il are also in question, as he has not been seen
in public since his appointment. The official said that the possibility
that Kim and his mother Kim Song-ae have been purged are low, but some
restrictions may have been imposed on him, following rumors of a movement
to have him appointed to the country's leadership last year.
2. DPRK Trade
JoongAng Ilbo ("DPRK TRADE STATISTICS," Seoul, 10/13/98) reported that
the ROK Ministry of Unification (MOU) announced on October 13 that the
total sum of DPRK trade in the first half of 1998 is estimated to have
dropped by 13.3 percent to US$750 million. Exports reached US$260
million and imports were US$490 million. Japan, the DPRK's largest trade
partner, had a total of US$199.5 million in trade with the DPRK (exports
US$105.1 million and imports US$94.5 million), but the trade level
dropped by 1.8 percent compared to that of the same period last year.
Trade with the PRC plunged by 35.6 percent to US$190.1 million. The fall
of trade with the PRC stemmed from a decline in imports, including crops
and energy sources. The trade between the DPRK and the ROK was recorded
as US$77.9 million (US$31.99 million in imports and US$45.8 million
dollars in exports) but it was not included as trade with a foreign
country. A source at MOU said, "DPRK trade is predicted to reach at most
US$1.8 billion dollars by the end of this year. It is certain that the
trade will drop compared to the US$2.1 billion recorded last year"
3. DPRK Trade Zone
JoongAng Ilbo ("DPRK CHANGES NAME OF TRADE ZONE," Seoul, 10/13/98)
reported that, in a country where names carry a great deal of ideological
and political weight, the DPRK has changed the name of its free economic
trade zone without any official notification. The ROK government source
said, "Until now the DPRK regime has called the venue 'The Rajin-Sonbong
Free Economic and Trade Zone,' but all of a sudden altered it to 'The
Rajin-Sonbong Economic and Trade Zone,' pointedly leaving out the word
'free.'" There has been no official comment on removing the term "free"
by the DPRK side. DPRK experts, however, are presuming that the change
happened just after some DPRK government officials were charged with
embezzlement. Some experts believe that the DPRK basically has vetoed
the concept of "free."
4. ROK Arms Sale Scandal
JoongAng Ilbo ("PRESIDENT ORDERS MILITARY INVESTIGATION INTO ARMS SALES,"
Seoul, 10/13/98) reported that ROK President Kim Dae-jung on October 13
ordered the prosecutors' office to investigate military acquisitions
during former president Kim Young-sam's regime. One such purchase,
dubbed the "Paekdu Plan," involves the import of reconnaissance
airplanes. The investigation will be focused on certain non-qualified
equipment deals and whether there were special favors granted to specific
business groups. The prosecutors are collecting information that will
support allegations that some generals received kickbacks, including the
former minister of national defense. The government first revealed its
suspicions in September that 3 kinds of fighter airplane suppliers were
competing for contracts in ROK, but the lowest quality one was finally
chosen despite its price. Currently, the ROK Ministry of National
Defense wants to cancel the sale related to the "Paekdu Plan"; however,
the US would seek a steep fine for breach of the contract. Another
disputed military purchase involved the sale of electronic equipment by
France's Thompson, which was selected in 1993 for a lucrative contract.
A German company, DASA, has launched a lawsuit in Seoul District Court
against the Thompson decision, so the electronic equipment has not been
delivered to the ROK military forces yet.
5. DPRK Tourism Project
JoongAng Ilbo ("TONGIL GETS AHEAD FOR MT. KUMGAN DEVELOPMENT WITH DPRK,"
Seoul, 10/13/98) reported that the Tongil Group announced on October 13
that it will build hotels and ski facilities at Mt. Kumgang and that the
DPRK will expand its tourism zone to include the whole of the Mt. Kumgang
area. Tongil also plans to launch its first cruise ship along with
Hyundai's in accordance with the DPRK's recently announced tour program.
Mt. Kumgang tours will be expensive, with an average fare predicted to be
400,000 won per person, because US$100 dollars per fare must go to the
DPRK. Park Po-hee, the head of Kumgangsan International Group (a
subsidiary of Tongil) said, "The DPRK wants many South Korean companies
to participate in the Mt. Kumgang tourism project. We plan to form a
joint survey team with other domestic companies and visit the DPRK. We
can include foreigners and Koreans living abroad as potential tourists.
Tongil has recently received a 'Certificate for Mt. Kumgang' signed by
Kang Jung-mo, the DPRK trade minister." He added, "Tourists can stay at
a Mt. Kumgang venue and facilities will be provided in case of
emergencies. We secured all administrative documents from the DPRK."
However, the ROK Ministry of Unification has yet to approve Tongil's
project.
6. Alleged Plot to Influence ROK Election
Korea Herald ("DPRK MAY EXPOSE DETAILS OF ALLEGED BORDER SHOOT-OUT PLOT,"
Seoul, 10/14/98) reported that the DPRK, making its first public comments
on the alleged border shoot-out plot Monday, indicated it may shed light
on the scheme some time in the future. "We make it clear that we have
the right to expose the case when we deem it necessary,'' said a
spokesman for the DPRK Committee for the Peaceful Reunification of
Fatherland. The remarks were a reference to the ROK prosecution's
investigation into the allegation that the opposition Grand National
Party (GNP) engineered the scheme to sway the outcome of the December
presidential poll in its favor. Three people who worked for Lee Hoi-
chang when he ran for president last December are accused of having asked
the DPRK to start a shoot-out at the border village of Panmunjom just
ahead of the election. The allegation sparked a severe political battle
between the rival parties. The ruling party demanded Lee apologize for
what it said was treason while the opposition claimed two of the three
suspects were tortured into making false confessions by intelligence
officials. The DPRK, however, had kept silent since the prosecution's
investigation into the allegation was reported at the end of last month.
The committee spokesman said in an interview with the DPRK Central News
Agency, "At a time when the ROK is experiencing a deepening crisis in
government, its prosecution announced the so-called Panmunjom shoot-out
plot while linking the case with us, and the rival parties are engaged in
a reckless dispute.'' He also warned that both ruling and opposition
parties in the ROK should bear in mind that belated repentance could
cause them irreparable damage.
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