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Northeast Asia Peace and Security Network DAILY REPORT For Thursday, October 15, 1998, from Berkeley, California, USA |
1. Light-Water Reactor Project
The Wall Street Journal (Masayoshi Kanabayashi, "NORTH KOREAN POWER-
PLANTS DEAL MAY LEAD JAPAN TO EASE SANCTIONS," 10/15/98) reported that
Japan must decide whether to sign the burden-sharing agreement for the
light-water reactors to be built in the DPRK in time for the scheduled
start of construction in November. Yasuhiko Yoshida, a professor of
international relations at Saitama University, argued that Japan should
not have rushed into sanctions. Yoshida said that Japan's refusal to
sign the cost-sharing agreement "is the equivalent of saying to North
Korea: 'Please go ahead with the nuclear-bomb-development program.'" He
added that Japan's actions have heightened tension in East Asia and
created a crack in the alliance with the US and the ROK. Yoshida said
that he believes the Japanese government will eventually sign the
agreement, but will insist it is doing so at the request of the US and
the ROK. However, an unnamed spokesman for the Japanese Ministry of
Foreign Affairs stated, "For the time being, [Japan] won't proceed" with
the signing.
2. Death of Donated ROK Cattle
The Associated Press ("S.KOREA INVESTIGATES DEATH OF CATTLE SENT TO NORTH
KOREA," Seoul, 10/15/98) reported that the ROK Ministry of National
Unification conceded Thursday that cattle donated to the DPRK may have
eaten hemp rope, but said that ingestion did not kill any of them. The
ministry said that lumps of rope have been found in the stomachs of some
other cattle raised on the Hyundai cattle ranch, which was built on
reclaimed land. Hyundai officials said that vinyl and other indigestible
materials might have been contained in earth used to make the land. The
ministry, however, quoted veterinarians as saying that the rope and vinyl
did not kill the cattle. It attributed the deaths to stress caused by
the long trip by truck to the DPRK. It also reiterated an ROK proposal
Thursday that veterinarians and officials of the DPRK and ROK jointly
investigate the deaths.
3. PRC-Taiwan Talks
Reuters (Benjamin Kang Lim, "CHINA OFFICIAL TO VISIT TAIWAN," Shanghai,
10/15/98) and the Associated Press (Charles Hutzler, "CHINA, TAIWAN
CLOSER TO TALKS," Shanghai, 10/15/98) reported that Wang Daohan, chairman
of the PRC's Association for Relations Across the Taiwan Straits (ARATS)
on Thursday accepted an invitation from Koo Chen-fu, chairman of Taiwan's
Straits Exchange Foundation (SEF) to visit Taiwan at a mutually
convenient time. Wang stated, "Our dialogue this time embodied real
spirit." Koo replied, "We will wholeheartedly and sincerely wait to see
you in Taipei." Under a four-point deal reached after two days of talks,
members of ARATS and SEF will hold discussions on all matters to explore
resuming routine, formal negotiations. ARATS Vice Chairman Tang Shubei
said that the talks would cover political matters like reunification.
However, Sheu Ke-sheng, a senior PRC specialist for the Kuomintang
government, said that formal dialogue would only be restored when the PRC
recognizes Taiwan as an equal. Sheu stated, "If you stop threatening us
militarily and suppressing our foreign relations, then under such
conditions we could raise dialogue on issues such as ending the state of
hostility." Koo will travel to Beijing on Friday to meet President Jiang
Zemin.
US State Department Spokesman James Rubin ("STATE DEPARTMENT NOON
BRIEFING, OCTOBER 14, 1998," USIA Transcript, 10/14/98) said that the US
welcomes the "positive development" of a resumption of PRC-Taiwan talks.
He stated, "We've encouraged both Taiwan and the People's Republic of
China to resume cross-Strait talks, and welcome efforts by the two sides
aimed at restoring a meaningful, substantive dialogue. We believe that
this kind of dialogue and these kind of exchanges help promote peace and
stability in the region, which is a matter of significant interest to the
United States." He added that the US goal "is that the long term issues
be resolved peacefully; that in the meantime that concerns each side has
about behavior or actions of the others can be discussed, talked through
and avoided if at all possible."
4. US Military on Okinawa
The Associated Press (Yuri Kageyama, "U.S. MARINE HELD IN OKINAWA DEATH,"
Tokyo, 10/15/98) reported that US Marine Corporal Randall M. Eskridge has
been arrested in the death of Yuki Uema, an Okinawan high school who died
late Wednesday from head injuries, one week after Eskridge allegedly
struck her small motorcycle with his car and fled the scene. Eskridge
was charged Tuesday with hit and run, driving under the influence of
alcohol, and causing injury through professional negligence. Since the
accident, there have been demonstrations on Okinawa demanding that a 1995
agreement between the US and Japan, that requires the US to hand over to
Japanese authorities US servicemen suspected of "heinous crimes" before
they are officially charged, be reworked. Marine spokesman Captain Bret
Curtis said the hit and run was not a heinous crime as defined by the
agreement, and the Marines refused to hand over Eskridge when the Okinawa
police demanded it last week.
5. Oil Spill near Japan
The Associated Press ("JAPAN COAST GUARD COMBATS OIL SPILL," Tokyo,
10/15/98) reported that Japanese Maritime Safety Agency spokesman Shingo
Nakamura said Thursday that Japanese coast guard ships were working to
contain an oil spill after the ROK cargo ship Chun Il ran aground off the
Japanese island of Shikoku. Nakamura said that the spill covered 5
square miles of the Pacific Ocean and the agency sent 20 ships to clean
it up with booms and chemicals.
6. Remains of Japanese POWs from Russia
The Associated Press ("RUSSIA RETURNS JAPAN POWS REMAINS," Moscow,
10/15/98) reported that Russia's ITAR-Tass news agency said Thursday that
Russia has returned the remains of 13 former Japanese prisoners of war
found in a former World War II concentration camp. Workers supervised by
the Japanese Health Service and Social Welfare Ministry have been digging
up remains from the Khalaza/2 concentration camp in the Russian Far East
since the beginning of October. The POWs were kept at the camp from 1945
to 1948. Valentina Buraya, first deputy chairman of the Primorye branch
of the Russian Peace Fund, said that Russia and Japan have been working
together for six years to find the remains of missing POWs. Buraya said
that 113 burial sites have been found in the Primorye region alone and
that 1,100 remains have been returned to Japan. Japan is paying for the
project.
7. Asian Financial Crisis
The Associated Press (Jonathan Drake, "ASIAN CRISIS MAY DO SOME GOOD,"
Singapore, 10/14/98) reported that officials attending the East Asia
Economic Summit said Wednesday that the economic and political changes
that have swept through Asian nations due to the financial crisis may
actually benefit the region by leading it into an era of renewed
development and stability. Philippine Foreign Secretary Domingo Siazon
said that political changes triggered by the crisis are encouraging the
creation of more efficient, democratic governments that could be a
"bridge to another East Asian miracle." Siazon stated, "When life was
good, nobody was really questioning the limitations on individual
liberties, because these ... shortfalls were offset by material
benefits." He said that because of the economic downturn, there is now
"a growing demand for popular participation in governance." Stanley
Roth, US Assistant Secretary for East Asian and Pacific affairs, said
that political changes prompted by the crisis have been "stabilizing, not
destabilizing." He pointed to the ROK as a country that has adopted new
leadership as a result of the turmoil that supports progressive economic
and foreign policies.
8. India-Pakistan Talks
The Associated Press (Kathy Gannon, "NEWEST NUCLEAR STATES DISCUSS
PEACE," Islamabad, 10/14/98) reported that top officials from India and
Pakistan met Thursday to discuss the Kashmir dispute, nuclear safeguards,
and other issue. Pakistan Foreign Minister Sartaj Aziz stated, "One
cannot expect breakthroughs on issues like this in the very first
meeting, so we are not expecting any major breakthrough." However, some
nuclear non-proliferation activists expressed concern that the talks
would become the first step toward rationalizing the deployment of
nuclear weapons. Sameena Ahmed, a defense expert with the Asia
Foundation, stated, "They could be taking a step down the road to
deployment, minimum deterrence. If India deploys, Pakistan deploys, then
Chinese missiles target India." She added, "There has been little
consistency, no transparency and no real effort to institutionalize
confidence-building measures that should stay in place when political
relations are not good."
Reuters ("INDIA SAYS UNDER NO PRESSURE TO TALK TO PAKISTAN," New Delhi,
10/15/98) reported that India's foreign ministry said in a statement on
Thursday that it wanted to engage Pakistan in a broad dialogue and is not
acting under external pressure. The statement said "there was no
question of India acting under international pressure and there was no
place for any third-party involvement in India-Pakistan ties."
9. South Asian Arms Control
The Associated Press ("U.S. OFFICIAL: INDIA, PAKISTAN YIELDING ON ARMS
CONTROL," Washington, 10/15/98) reported that Karl R. Inderfurth, US
assistant secretary of state for South Asian affairs, said Thursday that
the nuclear tests carried out by India and Pakistan have had the ironic
effect of enabling the two countries to take serious steps toward
adopting arms control constraints that would have been impossible without
them. Inderfurth said that both countries are contemplating a formal ban
on nuclear testing, controls over production of nuclear materials, and
restraints on development of nuclear-capable weapons delivery systems.
10. US Nuclear Secrets
The Associated Press (John Diamond, "NUCLEAR SECRETS MADE PUBLIC,"
Washington, 10/15/98) reported that a US Department of Energy review
discovered that mismarked and misplaced files led to the mistaken
declassification of documents containing highly classified nuclear
weapons information. Energy officials said that some material they
discovered in a spot check of files slated for release would advance the
capabilities of emerging nuclear states such as Pakistan and India. A US
Department of Defense review turned up similar examples of nuclear-
related files in boxes of material about to be made public. A 1995
executive order by US President Bill Clinton requires automatic
declassification by the year 2000 of national security documents more
than 25 years old. Republican Senators Jon Kyl of Arizona, Bob Smith of
New Hampshire, and Richard Shelby of Alabama complained to Clinton's
national security adviser, Sandy Berger, that "in a frenzied attempt to
meet the deadline," agencies were releasing whole boxes of classified
material without looking at the documents. The administration now has
accepted page-by-page declassification review, but allows bulk
declassification when boxes are deemed "highly unlikely" to contain
nuclear weapons information. David Leavy, spokesman for the National
Security Council, said the measure will protect against "inadvertent
release of records containing nuclear weapons information while also
preserving the goal of speeding the declassification and release to the
public of older records that no longer need protection." However, the
Federation of American Scientists said that the provision would cripple
the government's declassification program.
1. Light-Water Reactor Project
JoongAng Ilbo (''LIGHT WATER REACTOR CONSTRUCTION DELAYED AGAIN,'' Seoul,
10/15/98) reported that the Korea Energy Development Organization (KEDO)
announced on October 15 that it will delay the construction of the basic
reclamation work for three months until January 15, 1999. A source from
KEDO commented, "An additional 9 million dollars will be needed for
construction in DPRK and we, the ROK, will start construction in January
before the advanced payment comes in June, 1999." The Korea Electric
Power Corporation will thus continue the basic construction work until
early next year because the signatory countries have not yet reached a
financial agreement.
2. Future of Agreed Framework
Korea Herald (''DPRK WARNS US AGAINST CUT IN OIL SUPPLY,'' Seoul,
10/15/98) reported that the DPRK has warned against any attempts by the
US to decrease the supply of heavy oil provided under the 1994 Geneva
agreement. In a statement issued by the spokesman of the ROK Foreign
Ministry, the DPRK accused ''conservative hard-liners'' of attempting to
reduce the supply of heavy oil. It said that the DPRK would not argue if
the US decided to abolish the 1994 agreement. ''If it is U.S. policy to
review the basic agreement, we have no intention of deterring it,'' the
DPRK said. ''It would be all right to abolish it if the US side regards
it as something uncomfortable.'' The DPRK statement followed an ROK
warning that failure to finance the US$4.6 reactor project, which
includes the heavy oil supply, would give the DPRK an excuse to restart
its nuclear program. The ROK foreign minister, Hong Soon-young, urged
the US Congress to help finance the provision of heavy oil to the DPRK
when he met with foreign correspondents based in Seoul on Tuesday.
3. DPRK Famine
JoongAng Ilbo (''DPRK FACES A 0.8 MILLION TON SHORTAGE IN 98 HARVEST,''
Seoul, 10/14/98) reported that the ROK Ministry of Unification announced
on October 14 that the DPRK's harvest this year will fall short by 0.8
million tons of the necessary amount to feed its population. An official
from the ministry said, "The DPRK's harvest this year is estimated to be
from a maximum of 4.4 million tons to a minimum of 3.6 million tons.
Therefore, the shortage will be 0.8 million tons or so, because the
amount the DPRK needs is approximately 4.8 million tons." He explained
that the ministry calculated the amount of 4.8 million tons on the basis
of the DPRK's daily food distribution amounts of 358 grams per capita.
Earlier in the day, Kang In-duck, the ROK unification minister, said,
"The DPRK's harvest this year is estimated to be no more than 3.3 million
tons."
4. Deaths of Cattle Donated to DPRK
Chosun Ilbo (''HYUNDAI REGRETS COW DEATHS,'' Seoul, 10/14/98) reported
that Hyundai expressed regret Wednesday over the death of cows sent to
DPRK after an investigation conducted at its Seosan cattle farm. The
company revealed that 9 out of the 62 cows there had also ingested the
same indigestible material that DPRK claimed was responsible for the
deaths. Materials found in the Seosan cows were 5cm to 10cm long pieces
of jute rope, which used to be used for fishing at agricultural villages,
but not at the Hyundai farm. The company said that the rope was probably
used for growing seaweed prior to 1982 when Seosan was a fishing village,
and had been left there when Hyundai reclaimed the land to build a farm.
Hyundai said that there had been no deaths from ingestion of the rope,
but that it would institute stricter controls for future shipments.
5. ROK Contributions to US Military
Korea Times (''ROK LIKELY TO PAY HEAVIER US TROOPS MAINTENANCE COSTS,''
Seoul, 10/15/98) reported that the ROK government is expected to shoulder
a heavier financial burden for the maintenance of the US forces here in
seven years, the Board of Audit and Inspection (BAI) said on October 14.
The expected rise was brought about in this year's negotiation with the
US about the ROK's share in the costs of maintaining the US troops, which
amounted to US$399 million last year. In a report to the National
Assembly's Legislation-Judiciary Committee, the BAI said that the ROK
saved US$102 million in the negotiation by setting the foreign exchange
rate at 907.6 won per dollar, compared to current rate of about 1,350
won. However, the ROK, in return, promised to exempt the value-added tax
that used to be levied on munition supplies, as per the US government
request. The ROK also accepted a US request that the ROK provide
material aid equivalent in amount to the value-added tax, unless the tax
is not exempted. The BAI noted that the ROK's financial burden would
increase in seven years if it should provide material aid without
exempting the value-added tax levied on munition supplies.
1. Four-Party Talks
China Daily ("RESOLVE DISPUTES WITH LAW - SPOKESMAN," 10/14/98, A1)
reported that a PRC Foreign Ministry spokesman said in Beijing on October
13 that PRC Ambassador Qian Yongnian will head a delegation to the third
meeting of the Four-Party Talks regarding the Korean Peninsula, scheduled
for Geneva on October 21.
2. US-DPRK Missile Talks
China Daily ("US-DPRK TALKS," 10/15/98, A4) excerpted an article on the
US-DPRK missile talks from China Youth Daily. The article said that,
although the US and the DPRK have not forged diplomatic ties so far, they
still keep diplomatic contact through various channels, of which their
dialogue on the missile problem is the most significant. On October 2,
representatives of the two sides held a new round of talks in New York in
an effort to reach some agreement on the missile issue--a factor
deterring the further development of their relationship. The US side
held that the DPRK had been keen on developing and improving its missile
system, which poses a threat to security of the world, and they pointed
the finger at the DPRK for exporting missiles. The DPRK firmly denied
the charges made by the US, saying the allegation was groundless. The
DPRK states that developing missiles is the right of a sovereign country,
and no other country is empowered to stop it. Also, the DPRK blamed the
US for supplying missiles to the ROK, an act that heightens the tense
situation on the Korean Peninsula. Analysts hold that the missile talks
are not just a bilateral negotiation, but involve the interests of
neighboring countries and are closely lined to the security of the Korean
Peninsula.
3. PRC-DPRK Relations
People's Daily ("DPRK THANKS CHINA FOR FREE ASSISTANCE," Pyongyang,
10/15/98, A6) reported that the DPRK expressed its heartfelt gratitude to
the PRC on October 14 for the supply of 80,000 tons of crude oil as free
assistance. The PRC government's decision to provide oil was conveyed by
Wan Yongxiang, PRC Ambassador to Pyongyang, to the related department of
the DPRK on October 13.
4. Kim Dae-jung's Visit to Japan
China Daily ("APOLOGY MAY NOT HEAL ALL OLD HURT," 10/10/98, A4) reported
that, despite a landmark rapprochement between Japan and the ROK over
Japan's colonial rule of the Korean Peninsula, the two Asian neighbors
face a rough road ahead in building a true partnership. Analysts in
Tokyo are divided over their assessment of a join declaration signed by
Japanese Prime Minister Keizo Obuchi and ROK President Kim Dae-jung, the
report said. "The people in South Korea would not be convinced unless
Japan's apology for its past actions had been officially documented,"
Masao Okonogi, professor of Korean history and diplomacy at Tokyo's Keio
University said. Whether the two countries could bury the past to forge
a new relationship would hinge on Kim's leadership at home and the
behavior of Japanese politicians. But some political analysts said it
would not be enough for the Korean people. Ahead of the summit on
October 9, dozens of Japanese legislators from both the ruling and
opposition parties had urged Obuchi not to apologize. Analysts also
noted that Obuchi and Kim did not discuss two thorny issues: that of
"comfort women" and the sovereignty dispute over small islands located
between the two countries.
People's Daily ("A POSITIVE SIGN IN NORTHEAST ASIA," 10/13/98, A6) said
that the improvement of the Japan-ROK relationship is a positive sign
which occurred recently in Northeast Asia. A comment on the daily said
that the development of international relationships in Northeast Asia
cannot ignore the issue of history. It will be impossible to establish
mutual confidence without the resolution of historical problems.
People's Daily ("NEW CHANGES IN ROK-JAPAN RELATIONSHIP," 10/15/98, A6)
published an article analyzing the differences between this ROK-Japan
summit and the previous ones. How to recognize history is a topic of
every summit, the article said, but this is the first time that an
apology by Japan has been written into a document. Another regular topic
for every summit is the future-oriented bilateral relationship between
the ROK and Japan. There was also some progress on this issue in this
summit. First, the two sides paid more attention to the concrete
measures that will be helpful to improve the bilateral relationship.
Second, President Kim Dae-jung actively advocates the Japanese Emperor's
visit to the ROK. Third, besides political and economic issues, cultural
exchange became a new topic in this summit. It is undoubted that the
improvement of the ROK-Japan relationship will be conducive to the peace
and development of Asia and of the world. However, there still are some
problems between the two countries that will take time to be resolved.
5. ROK Economy
China Daily ("ROK ECONOMY CASHES IN ON RISING YEN," 10/13/98, A4)
reported that the Japanese yen's resurgence has provided a ray of hopes
for the ROK's economy, battered by financial crisis, dwindling exports,
and plunging domestic consumption. However, it is premature to say
whether this break in the clouds will last long enough to shield the ROK
from severe recession. Efforts to fix weak points in the economy's
structure are still in early stages. Skittish foreign investors have yet
to come back to Asia, especially with concerns growing about a global
downturn. Local consumers are also "battening down the hatches," fearing
the worse may be yet to come.
6. US-ROK Military Exercises
Jie Fang Daily ("COMMAND POST TO BE SET UP IN YOKOSUKA," 10/12/98, A3)
reported that the command post for US-ROK joint military exercises will
be set up at the US military base in Japan's Yokosuka. This indicates
that the US military is also considering setting up its command post in
Japan if a war breaks out.
7. PRC-Taiwan Relations
China Daily ("SPOKESMAN REJECTS 'CHINA CONFEDERATION' CONCEPT," 10/09/98,
A1) reported that the PRC government refuted on October 8 the idea of a
"China confederation" upon its reunification with Taiwan. PRC Foreign
Ministry spokesman Zhu Bangzao said that throughout its history, China
has always had a unified central government, and never had the form of a
"confederation" or "federation." Commenting on the "China confederation"
idea raised by a private research body, he said the reunification of the
Chinese mainland and Taiwan can only follow the formula of "one China,
two systems," which means the island province can maintain its current
capitalist mode while the mainland operates under a socialist system.
This formula is the "most realistic and most applicable" plan. There
should be a peaceful reunification with Taiwan under the policy of "one
country, two systems" as proposed by Deng Xiaoping, he said. The
province can retain its current armed forces and also send officials to
hold posts in the central government.
People's Liberation Army Daily ("FOREIGN MINISTRY OPPOSES ANTI-CHINA
RESOLUTION," Beijing, 10/14/98, A4) reported that the PRC opposes a US
House of representatives resolution supporting Taiwan's efforts to join
the World Heath Organization (WHO). PRC Foreign Ministry spokesman Tang
Guoqiang said that the WHO is an international organization that only
sovereign countries can join. As a part of China, Taiwan has no right to
join such an organization.
People's Daily ("WANG DAOHAN MEETS KOO CHEN-FU," Shanghai, 10/15/98, A4)
reported that President of the Association for Relations Across the
Taiwan Straits (ARATS) Wang Daohan met with Koo Chen-fu, Chairman of the
Straits Exchange Foundation (SEF), in Shanghai on October 14. During
their talks, Wang said that at the current stage, pushing forward the
political negotiations across the Straits is the key to the comprehensive
promotion of cross-Straits relations. The PRC consistently advocates
that any issue can be talked under the prerequisite of "one China."
Ending the state of hostility across the Straits under the principle of
"one China" is a necessary step to further develop the cross-Straits
relationship. At present, the two sides should make some procedural
arrangements for the above-mentioned political negotiations. Wang
suggested that ARATS and SEF carry out dialogues, including political
dialogues, as soon as possible to prepare for the procedural talks on the
cross-Straits political negotiations. Ending the state of hostility and
achieving the "three direct links" are the two most substantial factors
for protecting people's rights, Wang Daohan said.
China Daily ("TOP OFFICIAL HEADS GROUP FOR TAIWAN," 10/15/98, A2)
reported that the PRC has sent its first vice-ministerial level official
to Taiwan to explore two-way economic cooperation. Deputy Governor Zhang
Jiakun from East PRC's Fujian Province left the provincial capital Fuzhou
on October 12 for Taiwan via Hong Kong at the invitation of a Taiwan
official, Wen Linnan from the provincial Taiwan Affairs Office said in a
telephone interview on October 14. Zhang is leading a nine-member
delegation with the aim of deepening contacts, introducing Fujian's
investment environment to Taiwanese compatriots, and seeking new channels
for the booming trade between Taiwan and Fujian, Wen said. According to
Wen, Zhang will stay in Taiwan for 10 days.
8. PRC Military's Business Activities
China Daily ("PLA TOLD TO ABIDE BY POLICY," 10/12/98, A1) reported that a
senior military leader said that members of the People's Liberation Army
(PLA) and Armed Police Force must abide by the central authorities'
decision that they refrain from business activities. Yu Yongbo, member
of the Central Military Commission of the PRC and director of the PLA
General Political Department, made the comments during a recent Beijing
work conference. The session focused on preparations either to transfer,
dissolve, or restructure enterprises operated by military and armed
policy units. The army and armed police must support the Central
Committee of the Communist Party of China, Yu said, urging the units to
implement the decision.
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International Policy Studies Institute
Seoul, Republic of Korea
The Center for Global Communications, Tokyo, Japan
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Fudan University, Shanghai, People's Republic of China
Berkeley, California, United States
Berkeley, California, United States
Seoul, Republic of Korea
Tokyo, Japan
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Shanghai, People's Republic of China
Shanghai, People's Republic of China