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Northeast Asia Peace and Security Network DAILY REPORT For Monday, October 26, 1998, from Berkeley, California, USA |
1. Four Party Talks
The United States Information Agency ("10/24 JOINT PRESS ANNOUNCEMENT AT
KOREA FOUR-PARTY TALKS," Geneva, USIA Text, 10/26/98) carried the
following joint press release issued following the latest round of four-
party peace talks for the Korean Peninsula: "The third plenary session of
the Four Party Talks was held in Geneva from October 21 to 24, 1998.
Delegations of the four parties, the DPRK, PRC, ROK, and U.S., had useful
and constructive discussions which were conducted in a business-like
manner. In this session, the four parties agreed to establish two
subcommittees to discuss respectively the establishment of a peace regime
on the Korean Peninsula and tension reduction there. Further, they
adopted a 'Memorandum on the Establishment and Operation of the
Subcommittees' to guide the work of the subcommittees. The fourth
plenary meeting will be held in Geneva from January 18 to 22, 1999. A
preparatory meeting at deputy head level will be convened to discuss
arrangements for organizing the work of the next plenary session in
Geneva a day before the plenary meeting. The Chair state will prepare
for the plenary session from the closing of the previous plenary session
and will assume chairmanship for the preparatory meeting before the
plenary session. The four delegations expressed their deep appreciation
to the Swiss government for its support for this meeting."
The United States Information Agency ("10/24 JOINT PRESS ANNOUNCEMENT AT
KOREA FOUR-PARTY TALKS," Geneva, USIA Text, 10/26/98) carried the
following "Memorandum on the Establishment and Operation of the
Subcommittees" issued following the latest round of four-party peace
talks: "1. The four parties agreed to establish two subcommittees during
the third plenary session of the Four Party talks held in Geneva from
October 21 to 24, 1998. The subcommittees will discuss respectively the
establishment of a peace regime on the Korean Peninsula and tension
reduction there. 2. Each subcommittee delegation will be headed by one
of the plenary delegation members. The number of representatives of each
delegation will be determined at the discretion of each party. Experts
may accompany delegations to subcommittee meetings as necessary. 3. The
subcommittees will commence substantive work beginning with the fourth
plenary and will be convened during each plenary session thereafter. The
subcommittees will report their work to the plenary before the end of
each round. 4. The Chair state of the plenary session will also assume
chairmanship for the subcommittee meetings."
The Associated Press (Philip Waller, "OFFICIALS AGREE TO HOLD KOREA
TALKS," Geneva, 10/24/98) and the New York Times (Elizabeth Olsen, "U.S.,
CHINA AND THE 2 KOREAS TAKE A FIRST STEP TOWARD PEACE," Geneva, 10/25/98,
7) reported that delegates from the US, the PRC, the DPRK, and the ROK
said Saturday that, in reaching an agreement on the formation of
subcommittees, they have removed the last obstacles to holding
substantive talks on a permanent peace regime for the Korean Peninsula.
PRC Ambassador Qian Yong-nian stated, "It has been a tangible result."
He added, however, "We have not yet touched on any substantive matters.
This time, we worked on procedural matters." An anonymous US official
called the meeting a success and said the "substantive work" would begin
when negotiators hold the next round of talks in Geneva in January. He
added that the US stood by its refusal to put troop withdrawals on the
agenda. DPRK officials on their part insisted that they had not changed
their position, saying that troop withdrawal and a peace agreement with
the US are still among their fundamental demands. Park Kun-woo, head of
the ROK delegation, stated, "With the launch and operation of the
subcommittees, we hope to initiate a long-awaited and eagerly sought in-
depth discussion." An unnamed senior US official stated, "This was the
progress we expected, and the minimum we could accept."
2. Japanese Views of Four-Party Talks
Reuters ("JAPAN HAILS KOREA TALKS, MAY JOIN IN FUTURE," Tokyo, 10/26/98)
reported that Japanese Deputy Foreign Minister Shunji Yanai on Monday
hailed the agreement reached in the most recent round of Korean peninsula
peace talks as a positive contribution to Asian stability. Yanai was
quoted by Japan's Kyodo News Agency as saying, "We welcome this agreement
as an important forward step for peace and stability in East Asia." He
added that he hoped the DPRK would respond to the agreement
"constructively." Yanai said that to promote trust and a reduction of
tension, participation by countries like Japan and Russia, with a "strong
connection" to the issue, could be necessary at some point in the future.
He stated, "I believe there is this possibility."
3. DPRK Underground Construction
The New York Times (Elizabeth Olsen, "U.S., CHINA AND THE 2 KOREAS TAKE A
FIRST STEP TOWARD PEACE," Geneva, 10/25/98, 7) reported that, in
bilateral discussions concurrent with the four-party peace talks in
Geneva, the US and the DPRK made progress on the question of underground
construction in the DPRK. An unnamed senior US official suggested that
an official US visit to the site could be announced soon.
4. Hyundai Visit to DPRK
The Associated Press ("HYUNDAI CHIEF TO VISIT NORTH KOREA WITH 501 MORE
CATTLE," Seoul, 10/26/98) reported that five Hyundai executives flew to
the DPRK Monday to prepare for Tuesday's scheduled border crossing by
honorary chairman Chung Ju-young with 501 more cattle. Hyundai officials
said that Chung's four-day visit would decide the exact date of the first
Hyundai tour to the DPRK's Mt. Kumgang. They added that they hope the
first ship can sail in mid-November. Hyundai officials also said that
Chung expects to meet Kim Jong-il during this week's visit.
5. Alleged Plot to Influence ROK Election
The Associated Press ("FOUR SOUTH KOREANS INDICTED IN ALLEGED PLOT WITH
NORTH KOREA," Seoul, 10/26/98) reported that former ROK presidential aide
Oh Jong-eun and businessmen Han Sung-ki and Chang Sok-jung were indicted
Monday in an alleged plot to get the DPRK to stage a brief border
skirmish to sway the result of last year's ROK presidential election.
The three were charged with illegally contacting and meeting DPRK
officials. Kwon Young-hae, former head of the Agency for National
Security Planning, was indicted on a charge of dereliction of duty in not
investigating the case. If convicted, each of the four could get up to
10 years in prison. Kwon is already serving a five-year prison term
after being convicted in a separate plot to depict ROK President Kim Dae-
jung as a communist during the election campaign.
6. ROK Economy
Dow Jones Newswires ("SOUTH KOREA'S JOBLESS RATE FELL TO 7.3% IN
SEPTEMBER," Seoul, 10/26/98) reported that the ROK National Statistical
Office said Sunday that the unemployment rate reached 7.3 percent in
September, slightly lower than the 7.4 percent in August, as a result of
an increase in jobs in public works. The office said that it was the
second straight month of decline in unemployment. However, the
seasonally adjusted jobless rate stood at 8.4 percent in September, up
from 8.1 percent a month earlier.
7. PRC-Taiwan Diplomatic Competition
Reuters ("PAPER: TONGA TO SWITCH TIES TO CHINA FROM TAIWAN," Taipei,
10/24/98) reported that Taiwan's China Times newspaper reported on Sunday
that the South Pacific island Kingdom of Tonga will sever diplomatic ties
with Taiwan and recognize the PRC. The paper quoted unnamed sources in
the PRC as saying that Tonga and the PRC had reached a normalization
agreement. It also quoted an unnamed Taiwan foreign ministry official as
saying that Taiwan was aware of the situation, but had not yet decided
whether to announce it was cutting ties with Tonga. Taiwan Foreign
ministry spokesman Roy Wu stated, "We don't confirm the report, but we
also don't deny it."
8. PRC-Russian Relations
The Associated Press ("RUSSIA SPEAKER ARRIVES IN BEIJING," Beijing,
10/25/98) reported that Gennady Seleznyov, the speaker of the Russian
parliament, arrived in Beijing on Sunday along with a delegation from the
Russian Duma. Seleznyov is expected to meet with PRC President Jiang
Zemin, Li Peng, the chairman of the legislature, and Prime Minister Zhu
Rongji. The group also plans to visit Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Hong Kong.
9. Russian Missile Test
The Associated Press ("NEW RUSSIA MISSILE MAY HAVE FAILED," Moscow,
10/24/98) reported that Izvestia newspaper said Saturday that one of
Russia's Topol-M intercontinental ballistic missiles exploded shortly
after takeoff in a test last week. Izvestia said that the missile blew
up in the first stage of its launch from the Plesetsk launchpad in
Russia's far northwest, falling harmlessly nearby. It added that the
cause of the failure had not been determined. Russian First Deputy Prime
Minister Yuri Maslyukov has said that Russia must build 35 to 45 Topol-Ms
a year starting in 2000 to update its force.
1. Alleged ROK-DPRK Naval Cooperation
JoongAng Ilbo ("ROK NAVY TO MANEUVER INSIDE DPRK'S AREA," Seoul,
10/26/98) reported that Hyundai officials said that the ROK navy's
vessels could be mobilized to DPRK territory in emergency cases involving
Mt. Kumgang tourist cruises. Hyundai recently agreed to joint sea rescue
operations with the DPRK government. The agreement states that, in an
emergency, the DPRK would notify the ROK of the details and then launch a
joint rescue operation. The accident area would be declared as a
contingent sea rescue zone, and a second Demilitarized Zone (DMZ) would
be established inside DPRK territory. Mt. Kumgang tourist cruises would
be escorted by the ROK warships and be transferred to the DPRK navy at
the Military Demarcation Line. The DPRK also would supply convoy
cruisers to its warships. Chun Yong-taek, the Minister of National
Defense stated, "We are considering various countermeasures, preparing
for emergency cases." [Ed. note: According to a late report by the ROK's
state-run Yonhap News Agency, the ROK Ministry of Unification has
officially denied this report.]
2. Medical Assistance to DPRK
JoongAng Ilbo ("JOHNS HOPKINS MEDICAL SCHOOL TO OPERATE A HOSPITAL IN
DPRK," Seoul, 10/26/98) reported that the Medical School of Johns Hopkins
University is trying to operate a hospital in Chongjin, DPRK, with the
help of Mercy Corps International. According to the October edition of
the monthly "Newsletter" issued by the Korea Trade and Investment
Promotion Agency (KOTRA), Johns Hopkins University and health authorities
in the DPRK Hambuk local government agreed on this issue in June of this
year, and are now waiting for a final decision from the DPRK central
government. A source at Johns Hopkins University said that the
university dispatched a representative from its medical school to the
PRC-DPRK border area in PRC from January through September this year and
operated a mobile hospital with 20 doctors and other medical personnel
there. At that time Johns Hopkins and DPRK officials met and agreed to
medical cooperation. Johns Hopkins will resume operating a second mobile
hospital from late October to March 1999. Meanwhile, Mercy Corps
International, which has already donated US$5 million worth of medical
assistance during the last two years, will possibly take charge of
financial assistance.
3. Alleged Plot to Influence ROK Election
JoongAng Ilbo ("SHOOTING PLOT RESULTS LEFT NOTHING BUT SUSPECTS," Seoul,
10/26/98) reported that the thoroughly investigated and highly
contentious "Panmunjom Shooting Plot" turned out to be nothing more than
another unresolved, suspicious incident. According to the official
announcement by public prosecutors on October 26, the plot involved 3
people: Han Sung-ki (former Jinro Group adviser), Oh Jung-eun (former
Chong Wa Dae administrative official), and Chang Sok-jung (trader to the
DPRK). It was attempted late last year to help Lee Hoi-chang of the
Grand National Party win the presidential election against Kim Dae-jung
of the National Congress for New Politics (NCNP). Moreover, Kwon Young-
hae, the former head of the Agency of National Security Planning, knew
from the very beginning about the conspiracy and tacitly endorsed it.
The prosecutor said, however, "We have not found any definite evidence
against Lee Hoi-sung, Lee Hoi-chang's younger brother, so we will keep
searching for it in the future." Nevertheless, the announcement is far
from what the general public first heard from the government and the
ruling NCNP side since they strongly suggested Lee Hoi-chang's
involvement in the incident. The result, according to the paper, was
just to put 3 mediocre suspects in jail without any further revelations.
4. Hyundai Visit to DPRK
Chosun Ilbo ("CHUNG TO TAKE SECOND BATCH OF CATTLE TO DPRK," Seoul,
10/25/98) reported that the Hyundai business group announced Sunday that
honorary chairman Chung Ju-young will make another trip to the DPRK on
Tuesday, accompanying a second batch of 501 cattle he is donating to the
DPRK. Chung will cross the Demilitarized Zone at Panmunjom with a convoy
of trucks holding the cattle from Hyundai's Seosan Farm. The company is
also to sell twenty passenger cars, including five "Dynasty" models, to
the DPRK Asia-Pacific Peace Committee on a deferred payment business.
Included in the party traveling to the DPRK are Chung's son Chung Mong-
hun, chairman of the business group, and three executive directors. The
visit is at the invitation of de facto DPRK leader Kim Jong-il and it is
expected that a face-to-face meeting between Kim and Chung will take
place.
5. Foreign Investment in ROK
Korea Herald ("IFC TO OPEN SEOUL OFFICE NOVEMBER 2," Seoul, 10/27/98)
reported that the International Finance Corporation (IFC), a private-
sector investment arm of the World Bank Group, will open its Seoul office
on November 2 to step up its investment in the ROK. It has made an
investment commitment of US$382 million in the ROK since the nation fell
into a currency crisis late last year. "With the opening of its Seoul
office, IFC investment in the ROK will move into high gear," Deepak
Khanna, senior investment officer of the IFC and head of its Seoul
office, said on Monday. According to the Ministry of Finance and
Economy, the IFC concluded US$247 million worth of investment contracts
for four financial projects in June, and will invest an additional
US$125-million in manufacturing. "Now is the appropriate time to
increase investment in the ROK. The IFC investment will have a
demonstrating effect on other foreign investors," Khanna said.
1. RF-PRC Military Cooperation
Nezavisimaia gazeta's Igor Korotchenko ("DEFENSE MINISTER'S BEIJING
INITIATIVES," Beijing, 2, 10/23/98) reported that RF Defense Minister
Igor Sergeyev, on an official visit to the PRC, held talks Thursday with
the chiefs of the People's Liberation Army (PLA) of China behind closed
doors and visited the PLA Academy of National Defense, where he delivered
a speech. In his speech he stressed that "Russia and China need to
exchange information about each other as frequently as possible, in order
to reach a maximum possible transparency in military policies and
military intentions of the parties." He characterized RF-PRC relations
as "very stable, friendly and open." Sergeyev's current visit is the
third of that high military level in the past 4 years. In 1992, the RF-
PRC military technical cooperation commission was established. From
1992-1997, the RF delivered to the PRC its Su-27 fighters, S-300PMU1 and
Tor-M1 AA missile complexes, 877.EKM ("Kilo"), and 636 multipurpose
submarines. The PRC intends to continue to import arms from the RF, and
that issue was to be discussed with General Colonel Chang Wannian, Deputy
Chairman, PRC Central Military Council, on Friday. In case an agreement
is reached, the PRC will get RF-made "newest radar stations, anti-
submarine helicopters, infantry fire-throwers, self-propelled howitzers,
ship-based AA missile complexes and much more till the year 2000."
2. RF-Taiwan Relations
Segodnya ("ONE SHOULD BE MORE DISCRIMINATE IN INTER-PARTY CONTACTS,"
Moscow, 3, 10/22/98) reported that a visit of a group of 40 RF parliament
members headed by Vladimir Zhirinovskiy, leader of Liberal Democratic
Party of Russia (LDPR) and its faction in the RF State Duma, to Taiwan
ended with an international scandal. RF State Duma Chairman Gennadiy
Seleznyov said that that the Duma at its plenary session on Thursday
would consider a resolution to "disown this visit," as it was not
formally authorized by the Duma. The need to consider such a resolution
was prompted by a note of protest from the PRC Embassy in Moscow. Yet
this action might prove not enough for face-saving, because prior to the
visit the RF Foreign Ministry warned the Duma about its negative
consequences. Indeed, a most improper time was chosen for that step in
strengthening of inter-party contacts between LDPR and Taiwan's
Kuomintang, as it coincided with RF Defense Minister Igor Sergeyev's
official visit to Beijing, where he held talks on RF-PRC military
technical cooperation. Moreover, Gennadiy Seleznyov himself is scheduled
to go on an official visit to the PRC next week. Representatives of the
PRC Embassy also visited the RF Foreign Ministry to protest against what
Zhirinovskiy said in Taiwan, particularly his invitation to Taiwanese
President Lee Teng-hui to visit Moscow. Such a visit would surely
jeopardize the RF-PRC "strategic partnership," though Valeriy
Nesterushkin, Director, Information and Press Department, RF Foreign
Ministry, ruled out such a possibility, saying, "It is doubtful that in
Taipei they don't understand the situation." Segodnya's author pointed
out that foreign trips of legislators are not controlled by the executive
authority, and therefore the number of those wishing in the future to
accompany Zhirinovskiy abroad will hardly diminish, because as a rule it
is foreign hosts that bear the cost of such visits.
3. RF-Japan Regional Contacts
Kommersant daily's Andrey Ivanov ("SAKHALIN PREPARES A SEPARATE TREATY
WITH JAPAN," Moscow, 4, 10/23/98) reported that talks were held in the
city of Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk between the authorities of Sakhalin and
Hokkaido, with final touches being applied to a treaty of friendship and
economic cooperation between those two respective regions of the RF and
Japan. The unprecedented document is to be signed this November. "It
will be a mini peace treaty of its own kind," said Sakhalin Region
Governor Igor Farkhutdinov, a member of the RF-Japan commission on RF-
Japan peace treaty drafting issues. Farkhutdinov is strongly in favor of
the regional-level treaty, yet at the same time he is well-known in
opposition against a return of the South Kuril Isles as a payment for
normalization of RF-Japan relations. As for Hokkaido authorities, they
believe that, irrespective of the way the territorial issue is to be
solved, Hokkaido-Sakhalin economic ties will develop to become a model
for Japan-RF relations in general. Presently both regions suffer from
financial crises, but inter-regional trade has been growing.
4. Kurils Issue
Sovetskaya Rossia ("KURILS GIVE-AWAY GAME," Moscow, 3, 10/22/98)
published an article dedicated to the 5th anniversary of the RF-Japan
Tokyo Declaration by A. Plotnikov, Ph.D. (History), Deputy Chairman,
Kurils Protection Committee. Plotnikov in particular stressed that this
"allegedly official document" signed on October 13, 1993 in Tokyo by the
RF President and Japanese Premier has neither been considered in the RF
parliament since then, nor even officially published in the RF.
Therefore, although referred to frequently in bilateral documents, it in
fact does not have "a necessary legal status." Analyzing the
Declaration, the author claimed that in many instances it confirmed
Japanese positions and revoked Soviet ones and thus "seriously dilutes
the sovereignty of the RF." Quoting historical facts in favor of the
latter and denouncing the "clumsy attempts of certain Russian circles to
push through the issue," the author emphasized that "under the RF
Constitution and its laws the state territory in unalienable, and any
bargaining here is out of place."
5. RF Participation in APEC
Nezavisimaia gazeta's Svet Zakharov ("MOSCOW IS GETTING READY FOR KUALA
LUMPUR SUMMIT," Moscow, 6, 10/22/98) reported that the RF delegation to
the APEC meeting in Kuala Lumpur to be held October 12-18, where the RF
will be officially announced as a member state, will be headed by RF
Premier Yevgeniy Primakov, who will participate in the APEC summit there
as well. It is expected that Igor Ivanov, Foreign Minister, Andrey
Shapovalyants, Economic Minister, and Valeriy Gabunia, Trade Minister and
Chairman of the Commission on RF Participation in APEC, will go with him.
The "Russia-ASEAN" Foundation is getting ready for an exhibition fair to
be held simultaneously with the APEC forum.
6. RF-Vietnam Military Relations
Nezavisimaia gazeta's Igor Korotchenko ("RF WILL RETAIN ITS NAVAL
PRESENCE IN VIETNAM," Hanoi, 2, 10/22/98) reported that RF Defense
Minister Marshal Igor Sergeyev, during an official visit to Vietnam,
discussed with Vietnamese National Defense Minister General Colonel Fam
Van Cha the terms of further use of Kamrahn naval base. Vietnam demanded
a revision to the previous terms, asking the RF to pay the rent either in
the form of deliveries of arms, military equipment, and spare parts, or
in hard currency. Besides, Vietnam postponed signing of an already-
negotiated contract that provides for the study of Vietnamese servicemen
in RF military academies and colleges, pending the solution of the
Kamrahn issue. As the hard currency option is out of the question,
working consultations on arms deliveries will be held in November-
December of this year. Vice Admiral Nikolai Patrushev, Deputy Chief,
Main Staff, RF Navy, a member of the delegation, told NG's author that
"Kamrahn is an extremely important communication link at the junction of
the two oceans, without which it would be hard for the whole Russia's
Navy to exist." Presently, Kamrahn is used by both surface ships and
multipurpose nuclear submarines of the RF Navy. The role of Kamrahn also
increased in the context of the creation of the US 5th Fleet in 1995.
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