The Nautilus Institute

Northeast Asia Peace and Security Network
For Thursday, November 5, 1998, from Berkeley, California, USA

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I. United States

II. Republic of Korea III. People's Republic of China

I. United States

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1. Implementation of Agreed Framework

The Associated Press (Edith M. Lederer, "N.KOREA URGES US TO FULFILL PLEDGE," United Nations, 11/05/98) reported that DPRK Ambassador to the UN Kim Chang-guk told the UN General Assembly on Wednesday that the DPRK will not cooperate with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) until the US fulfills its obligations under the Agreed Framework. Kim said that the DPRK had kept its part of the agreement, but that the US now claims it cannot fulfill its part because the DPRK is allegedly building a "secret underground structure for nuclear facility."

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2. US Congressman's DPRK Visit

The office of US Representative Tony Hall issued a press release ("HALL SETS VISIT TO NORTH KOREA," Washington, 11/05/98) which said that Hall, D-Ohio, will visit the DPRK November 8-12. The statement said that Hall plans to spend three days of his trip in remote areas where people continue to suffer from starvation and severe malnutrition. While in Pyongyang, Hall will meet with senior DPRK government officials and with UN and private charities' aid workers. Hall stated, "Humanitarian emergencies rarely are caused by natural disasters alone, or by any single factor. However important other issues are, the needs of North Koreans who are starving and malnourished are real, and they deserve our immediate attention." He added, "I plan to raise the issues that have preoccupied many policymakers during my visit. But I also plan to remind people in Pyongyang, Seoul, Tokyo -- and, when I return, in Washington -- that we cannot forget the terrible suffering of ordinary people who know little of political issues and simply want to survive." Hall will be in Seoul on November 7-8 and 12-13; in Pyongyang on November 8-12; and in Tokyo on November 13-14. A press conference following his trip to the DPRK is set for Friday, November 13, at 10:30 a.m. at the US Embassy, in Seoul. He will also discuss his trip with interested US-based reporters and others on Tuesday, November 17 at 2:30 p.m. in Room HC-6 of the US Capitol. Hall's statement about his trip will be available at on Friday, November 13.

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3. US-ROK Military Exercises

The Navy News Service issued a press release (Lance R. Lindley, "NAVY COMPLETES EXERCISE 'FOAL EAGLE'," ROK, 11/04/98) which said that the military exercise "Foal Eagle" '98, the largest joint/combined exercise in the world, ended on November 4 off the coast of the ROK. During "Foal Eagle," USS Kitty Hawk (CV 63) and Carrier Air Wing FIVE practiced their command, control, computer, communications and intelligence capabilities with soldiers, sailors, marines and airmen from the US and the ROK. Another critical event during "Foal Eagle" was the execution of Fleet Battle Experiment DELTA, the fourth in a series of experiments designed to test technological improvements in sensor-to-shooter abilities. Undersea warfare, SEAL team special operations, air wing power projection and live fire exercises were also part of the exercise. US Navy Commander Al Elkins stated, "It's a big job for our staff. It's the first time we've tested things on both coasts of the Korean Peninsula. We each bring certain strengths to the battle and those strengths complement each other well."

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4. US-Japan Military Exercises

The Navy News Service issued a press release (Seventh Fleet Public Affairs, "U.S. NAVY AND JMSDF CONDUCTING ANNUAL EXERCISE," Yokosuka, 11/04/98) which said that the Japan Maritime Self Defense Force and the US Navy will conduct a large bilateral maritime exercise November 5-12 in waters around Japan. The routine exercise, Annualex 10G, is designed to improve both navies' capability for coordinated and bilateral operations in the defense of Japan. In particular, Annualex 10G will focus on enhancing military-to-military relationships, improving command and control, and air, undersea and surface warfare. Approximately 8,000 US naval personnel will participate in the exercise.

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5. US-Japan Summit Talks

Dow Jones Newswires ("N. KOREA, ECONOMY TOP AGENDA AT JAPAN-U.S. SUMMIT- KYODO NEWS," Tokyo, 11/05/98) reported that, according to Japan's Kyodo News agency, Japanese government sources said Thursday that the DPRK's suspected nuclear program and the Japanese economy will be the central issues at a summit between Japanese Prime Minister Keizo Obuchi and US President Bill Clinton scheduled for November 19 in Tokyo. The sources said that Obuchi will pledge Japan's full support for US-demanded inspections of alleged underground nuclear facilities in the DPRK. The sources were quoted as saying that Japan believes that Clinton will want to score points for his DPRK policy, which is "becoming increasingly important in U.S. diplomacy." Clinton will also be able to demonstrate to the DPRK the close links between the US, Japan, and the ROK. Japanese Vice Foreign Minister Shunji Yanai said in a press briefing Monday that the DPRK "should clear away such suspicions" about its alleged nuclear program.

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6. Violence against Japanese-Koreans

Reuters ("ETHNIC KOREANS IN JAPAN OUTRAGED BY FIREBOMBING," Tokyo, 11/04/98) reported that Tokyo police said that an unidentified man tossed a firebomb into the hall of the Tokyo headquarters of the General Association of Korean Residents in Japan (Chongryon) early on Tuesday morning. Ryu Kwang-su, a senior official of Chongryon, said that the fire bombing was the latest in a series of attacks and harassment by Japanese nationalists towards Korean residents since the DPRK's August 31 rocket launch. Ryu stated, "Japanese right-wing gangsters have made raids on the Chongryon central headquarters, threatened students of Korean schools and committed violence against them." He added, "Japanese authorities should be held responsible for prevention of the recurrence of such crimes, and they should put an immediate halt to the anti-DPRK (North Korea), anti-Chongryon campaign, as well as to all sorts of suppression of Koreans in Japan." The Chongryon headquarters and Korean schools throughout Japan have reported receiving numerous malicious calls and faxes since the rocket launch.

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7. Japanese Satellite Development

Agence France-Presse ("JAPAN REPORTEDLY PLANS TO LAUNCH FOUR SPY SATELLITES," Tokyo, 11/05/98) reported that Japanese media said Thursday that Japan plans to launch four intelligence satellites by 2002 in response to the DPRK's missile development. The Jiji Press, Kyodo News agencies, and the Yomiuri Shimbun all said that the plan will be sent to a cabinet meeting on Friday. They said that the government plan closely followed a blueprint drawn up by the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), except that it would rely entirely on Japanese firms rather than importing US technology. After gaining cabinet approval, the Japanese government would include funding for a study of the project in the supplementary budget for the fiscal year to March 2000.

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8. Kuril Islands

Reuters ("JAPAN, RUSSIA TO DISCUSS JOINT ISLAND DEVELOPMENT," Tokyo, 11/04/98) reported that Japanese Prime Minister Keizo Obuchi's deputy spokesman Akitaka Saiki said on Wednesday that Obuchi will discuss joint Japanese-Russian development of the four disputed Kuril islands when he travels to Moscow from November 11 to 13 and meets with Russian President Boris Yeltsin. The visit has been delayed and shortened by a day from the original schedule of November 10 to 13. Saiki said that the two leaders will meet only on November 12, and their encounter will include a signing ceremony of an agreement on investment protection. He stated that joint development of the islands would be a "very substantial part of the negotiations." The Yomiuri Shimbun quoted government sources as saying Japan was modifying its stance on island development as a way to accelerate progress in negotiating a peace treaty with Russia. Saiki acknowledged that a proposal from Japan on border demarcation that would give Japan control of the four islands had been leaked to the Japanese media. Russia's Itar-Tass news agency on Tuesday quoted Russian Foreign Ministry officials as saying Russia had decided to keep secret its response to the Japanese initiative during Obuchi's visit "to avoid an explosion of polemic."

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9. Russian Nuclear Materials

The US Customs Service issued a press release ("U.S. CUSTOMS JOINS FORCES WITH RUSSIA TO STOP THE SMUGGLING OF NUCLEAR WEAPONS AND MATERIALS," New York, 11/04/98) which said that Customs Commissioner Raymond W. Kelly announced Wednesday that the US Customs Service is heading two bilateral working groups charged with developing strategies aimed at stopping attempts to smuggle nuclear weapons and materials out of the former Soviet Union. The groups are part of the program to implement the US- Russia Counter-Proliferation Initiative unveiled at the Moscow Summit on September 2, 1998. US Customs and the US Department of Defense will train Russian law enforcement officials on special nuclear materials, radioactive isotopes, and nuclear dual-use materials beginning next week.

The New York Times (Barbara Stewart, "U.S. ENLISTS RUSSIAN CUSTOMS AGENTS TO SPOT NUCLEAR SMUGGLING," 11/05/98) reported that the US announced plans on Wednesday to train thirty Russian customs agents at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory on how to detect smuggled nuclear material. The US also plans to give the Russian customs service three X-ray detection vans that can detect nuclear material for use at its borders. Rick Galbraith, a policy coordinator at the US Customs Service, stated, "The Cold War is over, but the weapons are still around. The Russians were really good at keeping track of their nuclear weapons." The economic collapse of Russia, however, has made its cache of weapons and materials more vulnerable to smugglers "who know people who know people who haven't been paid." Michael O'Hanlon, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institute, a Washington think tank, praised the customs- services plan but questioned whether it is enough. O'Hanlon stated, "We should be protecting nuclear materials at their point of origin. We shouldn't wait until they reach the borders. We know from drug trafficking that border inspections are not enough." He called for "much more radical" plans to control Russian nuclear materials, including the US possibly paying Russian nuclear employees directly.

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10. PRC Ratifies Weapons Protocols

Reuters ("CHINA RATIFIES ACCORDS ON LANDMINES, LASER WEAPONS," United Nations, 11/04/98) reported that the PRC on Wednesday deposited with the UN documents ratifying international agreements placing controls on the use of landmines and banning the use of blinding laser weapons. The agreements are protocols to a 1983 convention prohibiting or restricting the use of certain conventional weapons. The PRC has not signed the global convention banning the use, stockpiling, and production of anti- personnel landmines. PRC UN representative Qin Huasun said that the PRC "stands for proper and appropriate control over the use of landmines" and supported efforts to curb the maiming and killing of innocent civilians by landmines around the world. He added, however, "it is of the view that the control of landmines should not in any way undermine the legitimate right of self-defense and security of countries." Qin said that the PRC would donate US$100,000 to a UN voluntary trust fund for assistance in mine clearance, which would be earmarked for demining activities in Bosnia and Herzegovina. He added that the PRC would also host two training courses on mine clearance, in 1999 and 2000, for students from countries heavily affected by mines, and would contribute mine-detection and mine-clearance equipment to countries that participated in the program.

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11. Spratly Islands Dispute

Reuters ("MANILA TO FILE PROTEST WITH BEIJING OVER SPRATLYS," Manila, 11/05/98) reported that Philippine Defense Secretary Orlando Mercado said on Thursday that the Department of Foreign Affairs was preparing a formal diplomatic protest to the PRC over the presence of seven Chinese ships in the Mischief Reef in the disputed Spratly Islands area. Mercado stated, "Basically, what we're complaining about is the fact that the PRC has undertaken some bold actions in its apparent resolve to increase its stake in the (area)." Mercado said that reconnaissance planes reported that one of the Chinese vessels sighted had a helipad and a fantail. He added, "These are equipped with guns but we don't believe that these are equipped with missiles."

II. Republic of Korea

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1. Implementation of Agreed Framework

Korea Times ("DPRK WILL NOT COOPERATE WITH UN AGENCY," Seoul, 11/05/98) reported that the DPRK said it would not cooperate with the UN's nuclear watchdog agency until the US keeps its pledge to build two nuclear reactors, deliver heavy oil, and lift sanctions. DPRK Ambassador Kim Chang-guk told the General Assembly that his country had kept its part of a 1994 agreement with the US and frozen its nuclear development program, but he accused the US of not properly implementing any of its obligations. The US has not taken steps to lift sanctions, has not started construction on two light-water reactors, and has not delivered heavy oil on schedule creating "additional difficulties in our economy," Kim said in a speech released Wednesday by the DPRK embassy. Now, he said, the US claims it cannot fulfill its part of the agreement because the DPRK is building a "secret underground structure for nuclear facility." Kim repeated an offer to show the facility to the US, "on condition that when it is confirmed not to be (a) nuclear facility, the United States should pay compensation for slandering and defaming my country."

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2. ROK-DPRK Meeting

Korea Herald ("ROK, DPRK TO MEET AT CSCAP IN BEIJING," Seoul, 11/05/98) reported that the ROK and the DPRK will meet at a nongovernment security meeting in Beijing early next week. The ROK Foreign Affairs and Trade Ministry said yesterday that sixteen states, including the two Koreas, will discuss security in Northeast Asia and the Korean Peninsula at a meeting of the Council for Security Cooperation in the Asia-Pacific (CSCAP) November 9-10. The CSCAP is the only regional security consultative body that both the ROK and the DPRK have participated in. The DPRK has been asked to take part in other regional security forums like the Northeast Asian Cooperation Dialogue (NEACD) and the Northeast Asian Security Dialogue (NEASED). The DPRK had participated in organizational meetings for the NEACD, a private regional security forum, but shunned the forum once it was officially launched in 1993. The NEACD has been attended by the US, Russia, the PRC, Japan, and the ROK, with the DPRK absent. The DPRK is unlikely to attend the eighth round of the NEACD meeting slated for November 11-12 in Moscow, ROK officials said. In 1994, the ROK proposed that the two Koreas, the US, Russia, the PRC, and Japan establish the NEASED, an inter-governmental regional security dialogue. The DPRK, however, rejected the ROK's proposal. During ROK President Kim Dae-jung's state visit to Japan, the Japanese government agreed in principle with the ROK to form the six-party regional security forum.

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3. Pro DPRK Web Pages

Chosun Ilbo ("PRO DPRK HOMEPAGES UNDER INVESTIGATION," Seoul, 11/05/98) reported that the ROK prosecution announced Thursday that it is starting a full scale investigation of fifty or so pro DPRK web pages on the internet created in Japan, Canada, and the US. To date thirteen sites have been disconnected under the national security law as "enemy benefiting." Prosecutors have already arrested Kim Seok-joon, a man in his twenties who created "A Meeting Place for DPRK-Loving People" featuring the DPRK flag and Kim Jong-il's picture, which had been on the Internet since October 30 but was removed once the investigation started. They confirmed that the site had received 4,000 hits. Most sites were created overseas and objectively introduce the DPRK, socially and culturally, with only a few being propagandist in nature. The DPRK is isolated from the internet and so no "home-based" sites have been generated.

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4. DPRK Special Economic Zone

JoongAng Ilbo ("HYUNDAI TO DEVELOP A SPECIAL ECONOMIC ZONE IN DPRK," Seoul, 11/05/98) reported that the Hyundai Trading Co. announced on November 5 that it would develop the Haeju District in the DPRK as a special economic zone for the next ten years. Hyundai plans to construct, on 20 million pyong of land (1 pyong = 3.3 square meters), facilities for various factories and residences, including hospitals. They would lease the facilities to other companies that want to run businesses on the site and undertake management for the site. Jung Ja- kwan, vice president of the company, said in a press conference, "The company decided that it would choose Haeju as a center for the West coast industrial base which Hyundai agreed to develop with the DPRK. From early next year we will develop 300,000-500,000 pyong for factory sites." Hyundai, initially, will deploy light industries that can easily utilize the DPRK's manpower and lease the facilities to ROK companies and foreign companies if infrastructure, including roads and ports, is in place. Hyundai added that more than 200 small- and medium-sized companies had already applied to lease the facilities.

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5. DPRK Tourism Project

Korea Times ("MOUNTAIN KUMGANG TOUR BOOK FILLED WITH WARNINGS," Seoul, 11/05/98) reported that the tour handbook for passengers taking the maiden voyage to Mt. Kumgang is much heavier on the "don'ts" than the "do's." Throughout the booklet, which is published by Hyundai, the tour's coordinator, visitors are repeatedly warned not to stray from the group because Mt. Kumgang is a "special" district and, if they get lost, they will not be able to get help anywhere. Tourists are asked to abide by all of the rules in the booklet, such as not returning late to the boat or vandalizing property. Passengers should keep in mind that expenses incurred from violations are solely the responsibility of the perpetrator, it warned. Visitors are further discouraged from uprooting a single plant or stealing a single rock from the mountain, which, according to the handbook, represents a precious natural heritage and houses ecological treasures. All garbage is expected to be discarded on the boat and alcoholic beverages are not permitted outside of the boat. DPRK law will apply to those caught trespassing in the Military Control Area or who engage in anti-DPRK activities. Additionally, a fine will be levied against those who take pictures where not allowed to do so.

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6. ROK Free Trade Pacts

Korea Times ("GOVERNMENT TO EXPAND FREE TRADE PACTS," Seoul, 11/05/98) reported that the ROK government on Wednesday decided to push ahead with the signing of free trade agreements with the ROK's economic partners across the world to boost trade and investment. The debate over the issue was launched at an inter-ministerial coordination committee on overseas economic affairs, presided over by Prime Minister Kim Jong-pil. "While supporting the principle of multilateralism in world trade, the government decided to push ahead with the signing of bilateral free trade agreements in a phased manner in an effort to promote trade," an official of the Prime Minister's Office said. Among a few countries under consideration by the ROK government are Chile and South Africa, two countries which are already close economic partners in their respective regions. "However, we have not yet reached any agreement with them regarding the signing of a free trade agreement," a Foreign Affairs-Trade Ministry official said. The initiative is designed to cope with the proliferating regionalism, make up for the ROK economy's weak points, and secure the foundation for stable export markets while actively attracting foreign investment. The foreign countries with which the ROK would sign free trade agreements will be selected in consideration of compatibility with ROK industries, the importance of the countries' status in each region, and their receptiveness to signing a free trade agreement with the ROK, he said.

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7. US Midterm Elections

Korea Herald ("U.S. MIDTERN ELECTIONS," Seoul, 11/05/98) reported that although they fell short of gaining control of Congress, US Democrats can claim victory in Tuesday's national elections. Contrary to predictions that they would suffer big losses, the Democrats made headway in the House of Representatives by cutting the Republican majority to 12, down from 22. In the Senate, the 55-45 Republican majority remains unchanged. The election outcome has not significantly affected the balance of power in the US, but it speaks to interesting political undercurrents. The Democrats' gains have emboldened the standing of President Bill Clinton who is struggling for his political life. In contrast, House Speaker Newt Gingrich now faces serious political trouble because of his failed strategy of emphasizing the Clinton sex scandal as a dominant issue during the elections. By failing to increase their margin in Congress, the Republicans' drive to impeach Clinton will no doubt lose momentum. Not only US citizens but also people around the world are eagerly watching the emergence of prospective US presidential candidates for 2000. The triumph of two sons of former President George Bush in the gubernatorial races in Texas and Florida is receiving particular attention. The US media describe the Bush brothers' victory as the ushering in of a new US political dynasty. Opinion polls show that Republicans most favor George W. Bush as their standard-bearer in the 2000 presidential race. The US national elections provide a chance to make an educated guess on who will lead the US into the 21st century. The paper said that the ROK should consider keeping a sharp eye on emerging US leaders like the Bush brothers.

III. People's Republic of China

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1. Tumen River Treaty

People's Daily ("CHINA, DPRK AND RUSSIA SIGN TUMEN RIVER TREATY," Pyongyang, 11/04/98, A6) reported that the PRC, Russia, and the DPRK signed an agreement on November 3 to clarify their territorial waters on the Tumen River. The agreement was signed by PRC Ambassador to the DPRK Wan Yongxiang, DPRK Deputy Foreign Minister Choi Su-hon, and Russian Ambassador to the DPRK Valelij Denisov. According to the report, the PRC, the DPRK, and Russia had held six rounds of talks on the border issue since October 1993, and the agreement was reached on the sixth meeting.

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2. Hyundai Founder's Trip to DPRK

People's Daily ("KIM JONG-IL MEETS WITH ROK ENTERPRISER," Pyongyang, 11/01/98, A2) reported that DPRK leader Kim Jong-il met with Chung Ju- yung, the honorary chairman of Hyundai, on October 30. According to the DPRK's Rodong Sinmun, the talks between Kim and Chung was held in a cordial and friendly atmosphere. The report said that it was the first time this year that Kim Jong-il met with visitors.

Jie Fang Daily ("HYUNDAI GROUP, DPRK REACH COOPERATION AGREEMENTS," Seoul, 11/02/98, A3) reported that honorary chairman of Hyundai Chung Ju- yung, after he finished his visit to the DPRK and came back to Seoul on October 31, said that the Hyundai Group reached agreements with the DPRK on 10 cooperation projects. Chung said his delegation was well entertained in Pyongyang.

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3. Tibet Issue

China Daily ("JIANG TO ATTEND APEC MEETING," 11/4/98, A1) reported that PRC Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhu Bangzao denied the report that the Dalai Lama will make a pilgrimage to North China's Mount Wutai next month. Zhu said on November 3 that contacts and talks between the central government and the Dalai Lama are entirely internal affairs of the PRC. The central government has its channel of contact with the Dalai Lama and this channel is smooth. If the Dalai Lama disregards the existing channel of contact and creates clamor internationally, this only indicates that he is insincere in this respect.

China Daily ("CHINA REITERATES POLICY ON TIBET," 11/05/98, A1) reported that a spokesman for the PRC State Council Information Office reiterated on November 4 the PRC's policy on the Dalai Lama and stressed that the central government has consistently followed a clear-cut policy in terms of contacts and negotiations. The spokesman said the Dalai Lama must sincerely abandon calls for the independence of Tibet and cease activities designed to split the motherland. When asked to comment on a foreign media report that the Dalai Lama plans to make a statement on the political status of Tibet, the spokesman said the Dalai Lama must openly admit that Tibet is an inalienable part of China, that Taiwan is a Chinese province, and that the People's Republic of China is the sole legitimate government representing the whole of China. He stressed that the central government does not recognize the illegal "government-in exile." Contacts and negotiations between the central government and the Dalai Lama are an internal affair, and the central government maintains unimpeded channels to contact the Dalai Lama, according to the spokesman. The fact that the Dalai Lama is using contacts and negotiations with the central government as a pretext to distribute propaganda and sway public opinion can only demonstrate his lack of sincerity, the spokesman said.

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4. PRC-Taiwan Diplomatic Rivalry

China Daily ("CHINA, TONGA LINK IN FULL DIPLOMACY," 11/03/98, A1) reported that the People's Republic of China and the Kingdom of Tonga announced the establishment of diplomatic ties on November 2. When meeting Prince 'Ulukalala-Lavaka-Ata, Tonga's minister of foreign affairs and defense, on the afternoon of October 26, PRC President Jiang Zemin called the new establishment of diplomatic relations between the PRC and the Kingdom of Tonga as a "logical historical development." Jiang said the move, completed in a joint communique on October 26, is the inevitable result of traditional friendship and friendly ties between peoples of the two countries and has laid a foundation for the further progress of bilateral relations. The communique between the PRC and Tonga said that the Tongan Government recognizes there is only one China in the world, and that the PRC is the sole legitimate government representing all of China, and that Taiwan is an inalienable part of Chinese territory.

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5. US Mid-Term Election

People's Daily ("UNEXPECTED RESULT OF US MID-TERM ELECTION," Washington, 11/05/98, A6) reported that US Democrats unexpectedly gained four more seats in the US House of Representatives, although Republicans retained control of both Houses of Congress. Another noticeable sign in the election, according to the report, is that Democrats ended 16 years of Republican rule of the crucial state of California.

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Produced by the Nautilus Institute for Security and Sustainable Development in partnership with:
International Policy Studies Institute Seoul, Republic of Korea
The Center for Global Communications, Tokyo, Japan
Center for American Studies,
Fudan University, Shanghai, People's Republic of China

Wade L. Huntley:
Berkeley, California, United States

Timothy L. Savage:
Berkeley, California, United States

Lee Dong-young:
Seoul, Republic of Korea

Hiroyasu Akutsu:
Tokyo, Japan

Peter Razvin:
Moscow, Russian Federation

Chunsi Wu:
Shanghai, People's Republic of China

Dingli Shen:
Shanghai, People's Republic of China

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