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Northeast Asia Peace and Security Network DAILY REPORT For Monday, November 16, 1998, from Berkeley, California, USA |
1. DPRK Underground Construction
Reuters ("U.S. ENVOY FLIES TO N.KOREA FOR NUCLEAR TALKS," Seoul,
11/15/98) reported that US Special Envoy for Korea Charles Kartman was
scheduled to arrive in Pyongyang on Monday for a three-day fact-finding
tour, in what would be the highest level US visit since 1994. The US
embassy in Seoul said Sunday that Kartman left by a military flight from
the ROK's Osan airbase, which flew to Japan before heading to Pyongyang.
An unnamed ROK Foreign Ministry official said that the ROK and the US had
agreed that the DPRK has to allow on-site inspections of its underground
construction site near Yongbyon. He stated, "The two sides decided to
explain to North Korea that the clarification would have a positive
effect on U.S.-North Korea relations and on providing the economic
assistance that the North needs." Kartman is scheduled to brief US
President Bill Clinton on the trip when Clinton visits Tokyo Thursday and
Friday.
Reuters ("ALBRIGHT SOFTENS U.S. WARNING ON N. KOREA," Washington,
11/13/98) reported that US Secretary of State Madeleine Albright said
Friday that, despite concerns about an underground construction site in
the DPRK, the 1994 Agreed Framework is performing its intended function.
Albright stated, "We believe that the Agreed Framework is doing what it's
supposed to do, which is to freeze their nuclear materials program."
Albright also denied that having former Defense Secretary William Perry
do a review of US policy toward the DPRK showed dissatisfaction with
current US strategy.
2. Clinton Trip to Asia
Reuters ("CLINTON INTENDS TO VISIT JAPAN, KOREA THIS WEEK," Washington,
11/16/98) reported that White House spokesman Joe Lockhart said Monday
that US President Bill Clinton intends to visit Japan and the ROK this
week. Lockhart said that, despite canceling his plan to attend the Asia-
Pacific Economic Cooperation meeting in Malaysia, "The president intends
to go" to the ROK and Japan.
3. DPRK Tourism Project
The Associated Press ("SOUTH KOREAN CRUISE SHIP RETURNS FROM SUCCESSFUL
TEST RUN TO NORTH KOREA," Seoul, 11/16/98) reported that Chung Se-yung,
honorary chairman of Hyundai Motor Co., said that a chartered ROK cruise
ship returned from the DPRK on Monday after carrying 415 tour guides and
Hyundai officials on a two-day tour of Mt. Kumgang in the DPRK. The trip
was a final check by ROK's Hyundai group and the DPRK of regular five-day
tours to the mountain that are scheduled to start on Wednesday. Chung
stated, "It was a successful test run, and I hope this will lay the
foundation for national unification." Chung said that the cruise ship
arrived at Changjon port on Sunday after a 12-hour voyage and that
visitors climbed the mountain in two groups. It was the largest single
group of ROK citizens to visit the DPRK since the Korean War. The same
ship will carry 980 tourists and 600 crew Wednesday for a five-day tour
of the mountain. Hyundai officials said earlier that instead of taking a
four-hour coastal route, the ship took a longer route in deference to
DPRK concerns about sensitive military facilities located along the coast
near the border with the ROK.
4. ROK Food Aid for DPRK
The Associated Press ("S.KOREA GROUP SHIPS COWS TO N.KOREA," Seoul,
11/15/98) reported that the Seoul-based relief group Good Neighbors said
that an ROK ship left Sunday with 96 milk cows to be donated to the DPRK.
The ROK has given the DPRK US$315 million in food aid since the DPRK
appealed to the international community in 1995.
5. DPRK Famine
The New York Times (Nicholas D. Kristof, "CONGRESSMAN FEARS FAMINE IS
DECIMATING NORTH KOREANS," Tokyo, 11/15/98, 13) reported that US
Congressman Tony P. Hall, D-Ohio, showed photographs Saturday of DPRK
children suffering from malnutrition. Hall said that recent reports that
the DPRK's food situation has improved might have been based on the
apparent improvement of conditions in Pyongyang. He added that in rural
areas where foreigners are rarely allowed to visit, the overall situation
is worse than ever. Hall also said that he had visited four hospitals in
the DPRK, and that health care had declined sharply. He said that the UN
had gathered and would soon release data showing that 30 percent of DPRK
children under age 2 are acutely malnourished and that 67 percent of all
children are physically stunted. The US Bureau of the Census recently
released estimates that the DPRK's population declined from 21.55 million
in 1995 to 21.23 million this year. Based on the growth rate from the
early 1990's, the population would be expected to grow by about 925,000
during that period. Nicholas Eberstadt of the American Enterprise
Institute noted that the DPRK's Constitution calls for one delegate to
the People's Assembly for every 30,000 citizens, and that this year's
Assembly had the same number of delegates as in 1990. He speculated that
the figure may indicate that the DPRK's population is down to 20.6
million or fewer.
6. ROK Economic Crisis
Dow Jones Newswires (Joseph Edwin, "S KOREAN PRES SAYS NATION REMAINS
ECONOMICALLY INDEPENDENT," Kuala Lumpur, 11/16/98) reported that ROK
President Kim Dae-jung said Monday that the ROK has not lost its economic
independence as a result of the financial restructuring initiated by the
International Monetary Fund (IMF). He stated, "The conditions of the IMF
bailout have helped us carry out reforms, especially in the public
sector." Kim added that the ROK encourages foreign investment to help
the country resolve its currency shortage and create jobs.
7. Asian Financial Crisis
The Associated Press (Martin Crutsinger, "US, JAPAN MAKE DEAL TO REVIVE
ASIA," Kuala Lumpur, 11/16/98) reported that the US and Japan announced
proposals Monday to pump an additional US$10 billion into troubled Asian
economies to help lift the region out of its economic crisis. The
package includes US$5 billion in new support offered by the US, and the
creation of a US$5 billion joint initiative supported by the US, Japan,
the World Bank, and the Asian Development Bank. According to US Vice
President Al Gore, the new US$5 billion in US support includes US$1
billion each in loans to Indonesia, Thailand, and the ROK. The remaining
US$2 billion will provide loan guarantees through the Overseas Private
Investment Corp. to support private business deals.
8. US Bases on Okinawa
The Associated Press ("JAPAN GOV. LOSES RE-ELECTION BID," Tokyo,
11/15/98) and the Washington Post (Kevin Sullivan, "CRITIC OF U.S. BASES
LOSES OKINAWA GOVERNORSHIP," 11/16/98, Tokyo, A21) reported that
incumbent Okinawa Governor Masahide Ota, an opponent of US military bases
on the island, lost his re-election bid to Keiichi Inamine, an adviser to
a group of local business leaders. Inamine, who was backed by the ruling
Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), stated, "There was a feeling that Okinawa
was stuck, with the military base issues and the economy both not moving
forward at all. I wanted to break this gloomy feeling and improve the
situation so that people can start seeing some light and make Okinawa a
place for young people to have future dreams and hopes." Inamine backs a
plan calling for a military heliport to be incorporated into a new
airport in northern Okinawa to replace the current facility at Futenma
Air Force Base. Yoshiro Mori, secretary-general of the LDP, said that
voters supported Inamine's ideas about economic measures and the US
military presence.
9. Japan-PRC Summit
Agence France-Presse ("JAPAN TO MAKE STATEMENT ON HISTORY, TAIWAN DURING
JIANG VISIT," Kuala Lumpur, 11/14/98) reported that Japanese Foreign
Minister Masahiko Komura said Saturday that Japan was working on a joint
statement with the PRC which would include a "recognition of history" and
a reference to Taiwan. Komura stated, "Working level officials are
preparing a joint statement. The important item in it will be our
recognition of history and the Taiwan issue." He said that the statement
would be issued during the visit to Japan later this month by PRC
President Jiang Zemin. Komura said that it should be "a statement that
looks at history squarely and looks towards the future in order to be
suitable to the visit."
10. Spratly Islands Dispute
Reuters ("MANILA URGES MULTILATERAL TALKS ON SPRATLYS," Manila, 11/14/98)
reported that Philippine President Joseph Estrada on Saturday urged all
claimants to the Spratly Islands to hold multilateral talks to resolve
their dispute. Estrada made the call ahead of scheduled bilateral talks
with PRC President Jiang Zemin. He stated, "The latest development in
the Spratlys will top our agenda."
11. PRC-Taiwan Relations
The Associated Press ("GORE [sic] TOUTS TAIWAN AS MODEL FOR CHINA,"
Taipei, 11/16/98) reported that Taiwanese Vice President Lien Chan said
Monday that Taiwan's model of modernization remains valid for the PRC.
Lien said that Taiwan's push for full democracy and free markets, though
flawed, is "what the Chinese people have been striving for for the past
150 years." He stated, "We are convinced that since we both share the
same cultural origin, the experience developed by the Chinese on Taiwan
can and will serve as a valuable and irreplaceable reference for the
mainland." He added, "The Republic of China has a solemn goal, that of
disseminating democracy on the Chinese mainland."
12. PRC-Russian Summit
Reuters ("CHINA, RUSSIA TO CHALLENGE U.S. AT MOSCOW SUMMIT," Beijing,
11/16/98) reported that Russian Ambassador to the PRC Igor Rogachev told
Xinhua news agency that the PRC and Russia will work to forge a new
international order aimed at reducing US influence in global affairs
during a summit meeting next week in Moscow. Rogachev stated, "At
present, there are no political issues that hinder the development of
bilateral ties" between Russia and the PRC. He added, "The two countries
share similar or identical views on many international issues." PRC
President Jiang Zemin is scheduled to visit Moscow from November 22 to 25
for a summit meeting with Russian President Boris Yeltsin. He is also
expected to meet Prime Minister Yevgeny Primakov and leaders of the Duma.
After leaving Russia, Jiang is scheduled to visit Japan from November 25
to 30.
13. Russian Nuclear Arsenal
The Associated Press ("LEBED: RUSSIA MUST MAINTAIN NUKES," Moscow,
11/15/98) reported that retired Russian general Alexander Lebed said
Sunday that Russia's armed forces cannot fight a large-scale war with
conventional weapons and the country must maintain its nuclear forces at
all costs. Lebed stated, "The only thing for which Russia is respected
in the world and which makes us worthy partners in any talks is our
strategic rocket forces. And this asset must be preserved."
14. Decommissioning of Russian Nuclear Submarines
The Washington Post (David Hoffman, "ROTTING NUCLEAR SUBS POSE THREAT IN
RUSSIA," Murmansk, 11/16/98, A01) reported that more than 100
decommissioned submarines with their nuclear reactors intact are floating
in fjords and bays off the Kola Peninsula because Russia cannot afford to
offload their spent fuel and cut them up. Andrei Zolotkov, a chemical
engineer who works with Russia's fleet of civilian atomic icebreakers,
stated, "We can't cope with this problem until we become a rich country.
In the near future we are not going to solve it. It will take 20 to 30
years to offload all the fuel in the north." Alexei Yablokov, head of
the Center for Russian Environmental Policy in Moscow, stated, "when they
produced nuclear submarines, it's ridiculous, but nobody thought about
how to decommission them. How is it possible, even in such a centralized
economy, that no one thought about the fate of these submarines?"
According to the Norwegian environmental group Bellona, the region has 18
percent of the world's nuclear reactors. The Russian Atomic Energy
Ministry recently acknowledged that the situation there requires "urgent
measures" to "reduce the ecological risk." Nikolai Melnikov, director of
the Mining Institute, has estimated that, as of early 1996, there were
57,000 fuel assemblies backed up in the north of Russia, including those
from civilian nuclear power stations. Joshua Handler of the Woodrow
Wilson School at Princeton University estimates in Jane's Navy
International that the Northern and Pacific fleets have a total of 72,000
spent fuel assemblies.
15. US South Asian Sanctions
Reuters ("U.S. RELEASES SOUTH ASIA NUCLEAR SANCTION LIST," Washington,
11/13/98) reported that the US Commerce Department said on Friday that it
would place sanctions on more than 300 Indian and Pakistani government
agencies and private companies for alleged nuclear and military ties.
Under the sanctions, the targeted agencies and companies would be barred
from buying US goods that might have nuclear or other military
applications. The department said in a statement, "Today's announcement
specifies Indian and Pakistani entities believed to have been involved in
Indian or Pakistani nuclear, missile and military programs." It added,
"Commerce Department licenses will be required for exports to the
entities listed, and most licenses will be denied."
1. Kim Jong-il's Activity
JoongAng Ilbo ("KIM JONG IL FOCUSES ON MILITARY CONCERNS," Seoul,
11/16/98) reported that DPRK leader Kim Jong-il's official activities are
concentrated on military matters. According to a study by JoongAng Ilbo
on November 16, more than 70 percent of all Kim's official activities
this year were related to military matters. As of November 13, Kim
performed 43 separate official activities related to military matters,
including 27 visits to military units. Recently, Kim made consecutive
visits to Air Force Headquarters and military units on the southern
front.
2. DPRK Famine
JoongAng Ilbo ("DPRK CROP HARVEST INCREASED BY 30 PERCENT," Seoul,
11/16/98) reported that crop production in the DPRK has increased by 30
percent over last year. The World Food Provision announced recently that
the DPRK produced 1.3 million tons of rice, 1.7 million tons of corn, and
370,000 tons of wheat this year. The DPRK is still 1.3 million tons
short of what it needs to adequately feed its populace, however. The
DPRK plans to import 300,000 tons of crops, but will still need 1 million
tons more. Before 1995, DPRK citizens received 260kg of corn and cereal
every year. Currently, each is given only 135kg per year to survive.
There was literally no supply of food from April through August except
through international aid. Chemical fertilizer is also in short supply
and truck and combine machines are only being used for 18 percent of the
harvesting due to gasoline and parts shortages.
3. DPRK Energy Shortage
Korea Times ("DPRK EAGER TO BUILD POWER PLANTS," Seoul, 11/16/98)
reported that the DPRK, suffering from a chronic shortage of electricity,
has begun a pan-national campaign to set up relatively small wind and
thermoelectric power plants. "The DPRK is establishing power plants in
provincial areas in a bid to help mitigate the critical power
deficiency," stated the ROK Economy Information Office, based in
Dusseldorf, Germany. The plants are designed to generate power in a
short period of time to help the DPRK resolve the energy problems, said
the institute, which mainly deals with DPRK affairs. The institute noted
that construction of the plants has been pursued at the provincial
community level, not at the state level. "This means the managerial
leaders of the main facilities like power plants have begun to expand to
provincial communities and enterprises," said the organization.
Currently, there are some 500 small and medium-sized power plants under
construction across the nation and their managerial rights have
increasingly been transferred to provincial bodies and enterprises.
4. Alleged DPRK Counterfeiting
Korea Times ("DPRK PRINTS $15 MILLION IN FAKE DOLLARS," Seoul, 11/16/98)
reported that, facing the danger of economic ruin, the DPRK is printing
counterfeit dollars in the amount of US$15 million every year, and
earmarks the dummy bills for overseas circulation. According to a recent
publication by the ROK Agency for National Security Planning (NSP), the
DPRK also engages in the international narcotics trade, with its sales
network expanding by leaps and bounds. The NSP-published booklet,
titled, "New Threats in the 21st Century: International Crime and
Countermeasures," points to an urgent need to address increasing attempts
by the DPRK to smuggle the counterfeits or "Super notes" and illegal
drugs into the ROK via contacts such as pro-DPRK residents in Japan and
ethnic Koreans in the PRC. "Since the early 1990s, the DPRK has operated
several factories in the suburbs of Pyongyang, its capital, fronting as
trading firms, which mass-produce counterfeit dollars so well-made they
are extremely difficult to distinguish from genuine greenbacks," the NSP
publication says.
5. DPRK Tourism Project
JoongAng Ilbo ("DPRK MAY OPEN UP MORE IN NEAR FUTURE," Seoul, 11/13/98)
reported that Chung Se-hyun, vice minister of Unification, said on
November 13, "If the Mt. Kumgang tour program by Hyundai Group goes well,
the DPRK might open other mountain places such as Paekdu and Chilbo in
the future." Chung, who was participating in a seminar related with Mt.
Kumgang travel and countermeasures at the Tower Hotel, added, "We expect
that if the DPRK can make ends meet through the program, they will invite
tourists to more venues. Moreover, when natural contact between the ROK
and the DPRK expands, the meeting places for those people separated from
family members due to the peninsula's division might be moved near the
Mt. Kumgang area rather than the demilitarized zone at Panmunjom." The
DPRK has refused to set a meeting place for those separated, saying, "A
fruitful result cannot be obtained." Lee Chan-woo, head of the Daewoo
Economic Institute, emphasized that the DPRK from this point onward will
try its best to induce foreign capital, since it is set on its leader Kim
Jong-il's policy shift.
6. DPRK Defectors
JoongAng Ilbo ("DPRK REFUGEES WILL RECEIVE MORE MONEY," Seoul, 11/13/98)
reported that the money granted to DPRK refugees who settle in the ROK
will be increased. The Ministry of Unification announced that a refugee
who qualifies for the relocation allowance will receive the equivalent of
US$30,000 beginning in 1999, which is a two-fold increase over the
current allowance. Lee Jong-yol, director of humanity in the Ministry of
Unification, said, "The age limit for those who want to attend university
will also be raised from 30 to 35 years old, but the new regulations are
not retroactive for former refugees."
7. US President to Visit ROK
Chosun Ilbo ("CLINTON TO VISIT ROK AS SCHEDULED," Seoul, 11/16/98)
reported that US President Bill Clinton will make his planned visit to
the ROK and Japan as originally scheduled. Clinton was forced to abandon
his earlier plan to attend the recent Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation
summit because of the possibility of US military action against Iraq.
However, with the situation in Iraq diffused, Clinton will be able to
return to his original plan to visit the ROK from November 20-24.
Sources added that an official announcement of the reinstated travel
plans is expected from the US in a matter of days.
8. ROK-PRC Summit Meeting
Chosun Ilbo ("PRC TO HELP DPRK-ROK DIALOGUE," Seoul, 11/13/98) reported
that ROK President Kim Dae-jung said that he believes his PRC counterpart
Jiang Zemin will play an important role in achieving rapprochement on the
Korean peninsula. Kim made the statement to press on the third day of
his state visit to the PRC. He added that during their Beijing summit,
he had asked Jiang to exert his influence and press the DPRK to open its
doors, as the ROK has no intention to malign or harm its brother country,
the DPRK. President Kim spent most of his time that day meeting with top
PRC government officials, including Premier Zhu Rongji and Vice
Presidents Hu Jintao and Li Peng. Kim and his entourage attended a final
dinner that evening, which was hosted by Zhu, with a plan to leave
Beijing for Shanghai the next day.
9. Controversy about Professor Choi
Chosun Ilbo ("DPRK DEFENDS PROFESSOR CHOI," Seoul, 11/13/98) reported
that the DPRK on Friday, in a statement from its Central Committee of the
Chosun Reporters Union, praised Professor Choi Jang-jip's writing that
the Korean War was a "national liberation war." It continued that the
world has recognized publicly that the war was one of aggression, totally
provoked by US imperialists, and that the DPRK acted to liberate and
protect the fatherland's pride and sovereignty. The statement said that
the ROK media, academics, and society as a whole are condemning the
Monthly Chosun for its article on Choi and are organizing a campaign
critical of the Chosun Ilbo group. It added that Choi's writings were
based on stark historical fact and reflect the views of an astute,
intelligent scholar with a conscience. The committee went on to say that
the Monthly Chosun is unjustified in raising questions on Choi's ideology
and criticized the group as "unjustifiably slandering our most popular
and independent political system, praised by the progressive people of
the world." The DPRK had threatened to bomb the "Chosun Ilbo"
headquarters last year, when it carried an editorial calling on Kim Jong-
il to step down during the serious famine.
10. ROK Missile Development
Korea Times ("3 TO 6 YEARS TO BE NEEDED FOR DEVELOPING 300-KM RANGE
MISSILE," Seoul, 11/13/98) reported that the ROK needs three to six years
to develop a missile with a striking range of up to 300 km and a payload
of 500 kg. "The period of development can be extended or shortened,
depending on the amount of funding and the required operational
accuracy," an ROK Defense Ministry official said. The ROK operates NHK-2
surface-to-surface missiles (SSM), its first self-made SSM, modeled after
old US missiles. Some high tech parts used for the NHK-2s are imported
from the US. With the completion of NHK-2 deployment, the ROK is trying
to develop a 300-km range missile despite reservations by the US, the
world's nonproliferation leader. "We will face some technological
problems in developing a longer-range missile without outside help," the
official responded when asked what options will be considered if the US
does not provide sensitive parts and prevents other countries from doing
so. The ROK has been highly motivated to develop a longer-range missile
to defend itself against the DPRK, which has recently shown the world its
capability to develop an inter-continental ballistic missile with its
firing of a rocket to put a satellite into orbit on August 31. According
to the article, pieces of the rocket were found as far away as the coast
off Alaska. It also said that the DPRK's 1,000-km range Rodong I missile
has been operational since 1994, putting the entire southern part of the
peninsula and parts of Japan under its striking range.
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