|
Northeast Asia Peace and Security Network DAILY REPORT For Tuesday, November 24, 1998, from Berkeley, California, USA |
1. Agreed Framework
Reuters ("NORTH KOREA THREATENS TO SCRAP N-DEAL WITH U.S.," Tokyo,
11/24/98) reported that the DPRK's official Korean Central News Agency
(KCNA) quoted a spokesman for the DPRK Foreign Ministry as saying Tuesday
that US demands to see an underground facility could threaten the 1994
Agreed Framework. The spokesman stated, "If the U.S. wants to break the
framework agreement while having no idea of making compensation merely
because we do not show them the underground facility, we no longer need
to observe the agreement inconveniently." He added, "Our implementation
of the agreement is unthinkable without considering sovereignty, our
lifeblood. We have always thought of how to respond in case the
framework agreement breaks down. Now we are more watchful." The
spokesman argued, "Since the adoption of the 1994 DPRK-US framework
agreement, we have faithfully implemented it. Accordingly, there is no
other underground nuclear facility in the DPRK than those frozen in the
Yongbyon area." He noted, "We do not conceal the fact that owing to the
specific conditions of the situation of Korea, there are many underground
facilities and tunnels in the DPRK. As for the underground facility
suspected by the U.S. side, it has nothing do to with nuclear activity."
He said that the US demand for unconditional inspections was a "grave
violation of and insult" to DPRK sovereignty and dignity.
2. Fuel Oil for DPRK
Reuters ("S.KOREA LG-CALTEX WINS N.KOREA ORDER," Seoul, 11/23/98)
reported that the ROK's LG-Caltex Oil Corporation said on Tuesday that it
has won an order by the Korean Peninsula Energy Development Organization
(KEDO) to supply 22,000 tons of heavy residual fuel oil to the DPRK. The
company said that the fuel oil with a 2.0 percent sulfur content would be
loaded on a PRC-registered ship Anfu in the ROK port of Yosu on Tuesday
and is scheduled to arrive in the DPRK port of Sonbong on Friday.
3. US Military in Asia
The Associated Press (David Briscoe, "PENTAGON WANTS U.S. FORCES IN
ASIA," Washington, 11/24/98), Reuters (Charles Aldinger, "U.S. REAFFIRMS
MILITARY COMMITMENT TO ASIA," Washington, 11/23/98), and the Wall Street
Journal (Eduardo Lachica, "U.S. REAFFIRMS BASIC STRATEGY FOR KEEPING
PEACE IN EAST ASIA," Washington, 11/24/98) reported that a new Defense
Department security review of East Asia reconfirmed the US commitment to
keeping 100,000 troops in Asia even if the Korean crisis is resolved.
Franklin D. Kramer, US deputy assistant secretary of defense, stated,
"There was a time, maybe four years ago, when those countries weren't
sure whether we would stay. We have made very clear to them that we do
want to stay, and they've made very clear to us ... that they want us to
stay even after a change in Korea." Kramer added that the US military
position in Asia is more secure than it has been in recent years. US
Defense Secretary William Cohen stated, "Asia is not as confident as it
was in 1995. This presence helps us to shape events, to respond to
crises, and to prepare for an uncertain future." The report reaffirms US
alliances with Japan, Korea, Australia, Thailand, and the Philippines, as
well as continued "comprehensive engagement" with the PRC and continued
dialogue with the DPRK on nuclear and missile development. It also
projects expanded cooperation with Russia in the region and looks
positively on contacts between Russia and the PRC over regional security.
The report also said that the development of a Theater Missile Defense
system "is a key element" in the region's strategic equation. It stated,
"We will continue our efforts to establish an arrangement with Japan to
advance the technologies that will enable us to help defend Japan and
counter the threat posed by (weapons of mass destruction) delivered by
ballistic missiles." [Ed. note: The complete report is available online
at Defenselink.]
4. Japan-PRC Summit
The Wall Street Journal (Matt Forney, "CHINA IS TURNING UP THE HEAT ON
JAPAN TO GET WAR APOLOGY," Beijing, 11/24/98) reported that PRC President
Jiang Zemin has two goals for his visit to Japan starting Wednesday: a
formal apology for Japan's World War II atrocities, and a commitment that
Japan will not support Taiwan. An unnamed Japanese foreign ministry
official said that an apology is "being debated," but he stressed that
Japan's apologies to the ROK "don't automatically mean Japan will
apologize to China." Meanwhile, an unnamed Asian diplomat in Beijing
said, "It would be a big victory for China" to receive a "Three No's"
pledge from Japan on Taiwan. The diplomat said that, because US
President Bill Clinton already made such a statement, a similar pledge by
Japan would "create the impression of momentum, which can then be turned
against Taiwan." Lu Guanye, a professor at the China Institute for
International Strategic Studies, writing in the state-run China Daily,
said that US and Japanese security arrangements regarding Taiwan act as
"a fire wall for the strengthening of Taiwan's independence movement,
undermining China's reunification process."
Reuters (Teruaki Ueno, "MILITARY ISSUE TO CLOUD JIANG'S JAPAN VISIT,"
Tokyo, 11/24/98) reported that PRC President Jiang Zemin is expected to
address the question of stronger military ties between Japan and the US
during his upcoming visit to Japan. Japanese military analyst Haruo
Fujii stated, "The stronger that military ties grow between Japan and the
United States, then the more fragile becomes the relationship between
Japan and China." He added, "Centering on the issue of Taiwan, China is
nervously watching how Japan and the United States handle their security
arrangements. The bottom line is that the new guidelines get on the
nerves of the Chinese." Fujii warned, "Various issues between Japan and
China, including the one on the Senkakus (Diaoyus), could trigger a
quagmire of a regional military conflict." Terumasa Nakanishi, a
professor of international politics at Kyoto University, stated, "China
wants to weaken, if not to break up, the military alliance between Japan
and the United States. China believes that if Japan has more say over
security issues, it will have a negative effect on China's policy and
influence towards Asia." Nakanishi said that Sino-Japanese relations
were showing signs of improving after a visit to the PRC in 1992 by
Japanese Emperor Akihito, but the revamped security ties between Japan
and the US have hindered that improvement. He added, "The guidelines and
Japan's stance towards Taiwan are basic ingredients of Japanese security
and foreign policy. Accepting the Chinese demands would mean a complete
reversal of Japan's policy." Nakanishi concluded, "The timing of
President Jiang's visit is not good at all. On many points in the mid-
and long-terms, Japan and China are heading for a worse state of
bilateral ties."
The South China Morning Post (Willy Wo-Lap Lam, "JIANG TO WARN US, JAPAN
OVER TAIWAN," Tokyo, 11/24/98) reported that an unnamed source in Beijing
said that PRC President Jiang Zemin would issue a stern warning during
his trip to Japan against Japan and the US using their security
arrangement to "interfere" in the Taiwan Strait area. The source stated,
"The Chinese fear that Tokyo's resolve to expand security cooperation
with Washington will be consolidated following Bill Clinton's visit to
Japan last week." He added, "Jiang is likely to tell [Japanese Prime
Minister Keizo] Obuchi that the US-Japan security arrangement has no
validity in Chinese territory. Moreover, the President may indicate
that, should an armed conflict erupt in the Taiwan Strait area because of
foreign interference, China is not afraid of US weaponry." The article
said that PRC diplomats, led by Foreign Minister Tang Jiaxuan, have been
pressing Japan to acknowledge at least privately that the US-Japan
security arrangement does not cover the Taiwan Strait. Diplomatic
sources in Tokyo and Beijing said that the PRC seemed resigned that Japan
would not put down in the post-summit joint statement the "three nos"
policy of not supporting Taiwan independence. On the Diaoyu (Senkaku)
Islands, the PRC is expected to stick to the position enunciated by Deng
Xiaoping in the 1970s that sovereignty disputes could be resolved by the
"next generation of leaders" and that, in the meantime, joint economic
development of the islands is possible.
5. PRC-Russian Summit
The Associated Press ("RUSSIA SAID AGAINST TAIWAN FREEDOM," Beijing,
11/24/98) reported that PRC Foreign Ministry spokesman Tang Guoqiang said
Tuesday that, during the summit between Russian President Boris Yeltsin
and PRC President Jiang Zemin on Monday, Russia pledged not to sell
weapons to Taiwan and to support the PRC's claim to the island. Tang
said that Russia specifically promised not to recognize Taiwan's
independence or support the island's entry into international
organizations comprised of sovereign states.
6. Russian-PRC Military Cooperation
The Washington Post (John Pomfret, "CHINA, RUSSIA FORGING PARTNERSHIP,"
Zhuhai, 11/21/98, A13) reported that Russian Ambassador to the PRC Igor
Rogachev said last week that PRC President Jiang Zemin's trip to Russia
was a sign that hostility between Russia and the PRC had given way to a
powerful "strategic partnership" that aims at forging a "new order" to
challenge US domination. The article pointed out that, during the past
four years, arms sales from Russia to the PRC accounted for US$1 billion
a year, roughly one-quarter of the two countries' total trade. Western
defense experts said that the PRC's main weapons purchases from Russia
are designed not to fill short-term combat capability but to gain access
to advanced technology. Russian media reported in April that the
Progress aviation firm in Arsenyev in the Russian Far East has started
producing 30 Sunburn anti-ship missiles for the PRC. An unnamed official
at the US Defense Intelligence Agency stated, "This one could hurt us."
An unnamed Western diplomat in Beijing stated, "The line out of the
Russian Embassy is that anyone privy to all the details of these deals is
not that uncomfortable that Russia is giving away the farm. Also, they
have a pretty healthy contempt for the Chinese military." Lieutenant
General Vladimir Mikhailov, the vice-commander of Russia's air force,
stated, "We are selling the Chinese very little. But if they want to buy
the Su-30 [fighter-bomber], we will sell it to them." Richard Fisher, a
specialist on the PRC military at the Heritage Foundation in Washington,
said that the Su-30 would give the PRC "the basis of a modern strike
capability." Eric McVadon, a former US Navy admiral and defense attache
in Beijing, said, "Washington should worry about more advanced fighters
and quiet diesel submarines that China might purchase from Russia.
However, we should keep all this in perspective. China can use these
things to make our lives more miserable in a future Taiwan crisis.
Nevertheless, these purchases will not allow the PLA [People's Liberation
Army] to surmount all its shortcomings and become a power able to
threaten American power in Asia. The PLA is coming from a position of
truly extraordinary backwardness and obsolescence."
7. Taiwanese Missile Defense
The Associated Press ("TAIWAN WANTS US HELP IN MISSILE DEFENSE AGAINST
CHINA-REPORT," Taipei, 11/24/98) reported that Taiwan's China Times
newspaper reported Tuesday that Tang Fei, chief of the Taiwan military's
general staff, said that Taiwan wants to deploy the most advanced version
of the US Patriot missile defense system to protect a huge swath around
Taipei, as well as the major cities of Taichung and Kaohsiung. The
report said that a new Patriot system, estimated to cost more than US$1
billion, would reinforce Patriots already being installed around Taipei.
Tang conceded that the development of a Theater Missile Defense system in
the US has yet to achieve major breakthroughs, but predicted eventual
success. The Liberty Times said in a separate report that Tang also said
that Taiwan has already formally applied to the US to purchase an
unspecified number of advanced Aegis guided-missile destroyers. If the
US agrees to the sale, the ships, which cost about US$800 million each,
would be deliverable in 2006.
8. PRC-Taiwan Diplomatic Rivalry
Reuters (Lawrence Chung, "DEFYING BEIJING, TAIWAN RECOGNIZES MARSHALLS,"
Taipei, 11/20/98) reported that Taiwan on Friday established formal ties
with the Marshall Islands, a former US dependency in the Pacific. Taiwan
Foreign Minister Jason Hu said that plans to exchange ties had been kept
secret to prevent interference by the PRC. Marshall Islands Foreign
Minister Philip Muller said that, despite the move, the PRC is "still our
friend," and that the Marshall Islands wanted simultaneous ties with
Taiwan and the PRC. The move brought the total number of states
recognizing Taiwan to 27. In recent years, the two countries have
discussed disposing Taiwanese nuclear waste in the Marshall Islands, but
opposition from environmentalists has frustrated the proposal. Taiwan's
foreign ministry said that the two sides would increase exchanges and
cooperation in agriculture, fishery, technology, and tourism.
Agence France-Presse ("CHINA PROTESTS AGAINST MARSHALL ISLANDS TIEUP WITH
TAIWAN," Beijing, 11/20/98) reported that the PRC Foreign Ministry on
Friday summoned Ambassador Carl Heine of the Marshall Islands to protest
the establishment of diplomatic links with Taiwan. Heine stated, "It is
an unfortunate thing. We have interest in establishing trade relations
with Taiwan. It is strictly commercial, no politics." A PRC foreign
ministry spokesman said that the PRC "firmly denounces countries with
which we have diplomatic ties to set up official relations with Taiwan."
An unnamed western diplomat in Beijing stated, "It's quite interesting
that the Marshall Islands have switched at this point (when) the pattern
is clearly in favor of the PRC." He added that the switch would not stop
the PRC from persisting in its efforts to convince Taiwan's remaining
allies to break ties with Taiwan. He stated, "They know it's a battle.
They won't be satisfied until there is no country on the list." He said
that the switch that really broke the deadlock for the PRC was South
Africa earlier this year, following which no other countries had similar
pull or credibility. He added, however, that it still made sense to win
over the small countries because they have equal votes in the UN and in
terms of the respectability they can confer on Taiwan.
9. Taiwanese Elections
Agence France-Presse ("REPORT: CHINA TO OBSERVE DECEMBER ELECTIONS IN
TAIWAN," Taipei, 11/17/98) reported that Taiwan's Independence Evening
Post said last week that six members of the PRC's official Institute of
Taiwan Studies under the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences will visit
Taiwan from November 26 to observe elections scheduled for December 5.
The paper added that the PRC delegation would call on Taipei Mayor Chen
Shui-bian three days ahead of the elections. However, a spokesman for
the non-profit Chinese Association for Eurasian Studies, the host of the
trip, denied that the visitors would monitor the elections. The
spokesman said, "They will be here to attend a seminar which is not open
to the public." He added that both sides had reached a "tacit
understanding" that the tour would be a low-profile one.
10. PRC Military Reform
The Washington Post (John Pomfret, "CHINESE ARMY OUT OF BUSINESS?"
Zhuhai, 11/23/98, A20) reported that Liu Jibin, chief of the PRC
Commission on Science and Technology for National Defense, last week
reiterated the PRC's commitment to ending the army's business activities.
Liu stated, "In the past, the military had a large number of firms doing
business. The military part of the budget was very small, so the
military wanted to increase its income somehow. But these businesses
belonged to a special historical and very abnormal situation, and we
discovered that this road wasn't good for the army. The army has to rely
on the country; if not, it can develop some very unhealthy
manifestations." Liu said that by year's end, control of the army's
major firms is to be transferred to the State Economic and Trade
Commission, while provincial governments will take over smaller firms now
run by the PRC's seven military regions. He added that the PRC
established in March a new branch within the army, the General Equipment
Department, which will be responsible for ordering weaponry from his
supervisory defense commission. The commission will then arrange for
weapons production or for imports. He also noted that the defense
commission is now under civilian, rather than military, control, and that
the PRC's defense industry would be eased out of policy decisions. June
Teufel Dreyer, an expert on the PRC military at the University of Miami,
called Liu's comments a strong indication that President Jiang Zemin and
Prime Minister Zhu Rongji "are taking some pretty serious steps to bring
[the army] under the control of the Communist Party and the state." She
said that Liu "went beyond code phrases" in his critique of the army's
business practices. She added, "It represents very blunt speaking from
someone as high-ranking as Liu."
The NAPSNet Daily Report aims to serve as a forum for dialogue
and exchange among peace and security specialists.
Conventions for readers and a list of acronyms and
abbreviations are available to all recipients.
For descriptions of the world wide web sites used to gather
information for this report, or for more information on web
sites with related information, see the collection of
other NAPSNet resources.
Produced by the Nautilus Institute for Security and Sustainable Development in partnership with:
Wade L. Huntley: napsnet@nautilus.org
Timothy L. Savage: napsnet@nautilus.org
Lee Dong-young: UNPOL@netsgo.com
Hiroyasu Akutsu: akutsu@glocomnet.or.jp
Peter Razvin: icipu@glas.apc.org
Chunsi Wu: dlshen@fudan.ac.cn
Dingli Shen: dlshen@fudan.ac.cn
Return to the Top of this Daily Report
[Next Item][Contents]
[Prev. Item][Next Item][Contents]
[Prev. Item][Next Item][Contents]
[Prev. Item][Next Item][Contents]
[Prev. Item][Next Item][Contents]
[Prev. Item][Next Item][Contents]
[Prev. Item][Next Item][Contents]
[Prev. Item][Next Item][Contents]
[Prev. Item][Next Item][Contents]
[Prev. Item][Contents][Credits]
We invite you to reply to today's report, and we welcome
commentary or papers for distribution to the network.
International Policy Studies Institute
Seoul, Republic of Korea
The Center for Global Communications, Tokyo, Japan
Center for American Studies,
Fudan University, Shanghai, People's Republic of China
Berkeley, California, United States
Berkeley, California, United States
Seoul, Republic of Korea
Tokyo, Japan
Moscow, Russian Federation
Shanghai, People's Republic of China
Shanghai, People's Republic of China