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Northeast Asia Peace and Security Network DAILY REPORT For Monday, November 30, 1998, from Berkeley, California, USA |
1. DPRK Underground Construction
The Associated Press ("IAEA HEAD ARRIVES IN SOUTH KOREA," Seoul,
11/29/98) reported that Mohamed ElBaradei, director general of the
International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), arrived in Seoul on Sunday for
talks about a suspected underground nuclear site in the DPRK. The ROK
Foreign Ministry said ElBaradei will meet with ROK President Kim Dae-
jung, Foreign Affairs and Trade Minister Hong Soon-young, and other
government officials during his four-day visit.
2. Russia-DPRK Treaty
The Associated Press ("RUSSIA, N. KOREA CLOSE TO TREATY," Moscow,
11/30/98) reported that Russia's Interfax news agency said Monday that
Russia is close to agreement on a new treaty with the DPRK that would
drop Soviet-era mutual defense commitments. The report quoted
unidentified Russian government sources as saying that just a few items
remain to be agreed upon before the treaty can be signed, although no
date has been set. It added that diplomats from both countries will hold
more trade and economic talks to finalize details on a new treaty.
3. 2002 World Cup
The Associated Press ("FIFA WELCOMES TALKS WITH N. KOREA," Seoul,
11/30/98) reported that Sepp Blatter, president of the Federation of
International Football Associations (FIFA), said Monday that FIFA will
consider playing 2002 World Cup games in the DPRK. Blatter stated, "FIFA
will not close the door. We are open to any dialogue." He also said
that he will visit the DPRK next fall at the invitation of the sports
minister. He added, however, that playing World Cup games in the DPRK is
a political issue that first has to be resolved between the DPRK and the
ROK. Blatter said, "FIFA is a sports organization. And the first step
should be made by a political entity, not a sports entity."
4. Japanese Emperor's Trip to ROK
The Associated Press ("S. KOREA'S INVITATION CRITICIZED," Tokyo,
11/30/98) reported that a broadcast on the DPRK's Korean Central Radio on
Monday called ROK Prime Minister Kim Jong-pil "a pro-Japan traitor" for
inviting Japan's Emperor Akihito to visit Seoul in the year 2000. Kim
reportedly made the invitation at a weekend meeting of Cabinet ministers
from both nations in Kagoshima, Japan. Japanese Prime Minister Keizo
Obuchi also attended.
5. ROK-Japan Fisheries Treaty
The Associated Press ("JAPAN, S. KOREA SIGN FISHING ACCORD," Tokyo,
11/28/98) reported that Japan and the ROK signed an agreement Saturday on
new fishing boundaries and quotas. The pact permits vessels from Japan
and the ROK to fish within 230 miles of each country's shores, the limit
for exclusive fishing rights under the 1994 UN Convention on the Law of
the Sea. They also agreed to set up a joint fishing zone around the
disputed islets of Tokdo or Takeshima. Both sides also agreed to reduce
their fishing catches in each other's waters. A Japanese government
official said that the agreement, which was reached in September, was
signed during a meeting of Cabinet ministers from both countries in the
southern city of Kagoshima.
6. Jiang Zemin's Trip to Japan
Reuters (Benjamin Kang Lim, "CHINA PRESIDENT'S JAPAN VISIT DRAWS MIXED
REVIEWS," Beijing, 11/30/98) reported that PRC President Jiang Zemin
returned home Monday from a visit to Japan. One unnamed Western diplomat
stated, "The Japanese got away with giving nothing. It doesn't make
Jiang Zemin look very good." Another said, "It would be difficult to
describe it as a success. The Chinese have had certain goals which have
mostly not been achieved." Other analysts, however, saw Jiang's failure
to receive a written war apology as keeping alive the issue that the PRC
regularly uses to secure Japanese soft loans and investment. During the
visit, Japan pledged to give 390 billion yen in loans to the PRC in 1999
and 2000 to finance a variety of projects dealing with the environment,
farm productivity, and other areas. Shortly after Jiang left Monday,
Japanese Prime Minister Keizo Obuchi told the Diet, "With President
Jiang's visit to Japan, I believe that we have built a foundation to
further promote Sino-Japanese relations."
The Associated Press (Katsumi Kasahara, "CHINA'S JIANG VISITS NORTHERN
JAPAN," Sendai, 11/29/98) reported that editorials Sunday in Hong Kong
newspapers branded PRC President Jiang Zemin's visit to Japan a
diplomatic failure. The Chinese-language Ming Pao said, "Japan chose to
be confrontational with China because it does not want to see China
becoming a major international powerhouse."
The Associated Press (Martin Fackler, "PROTESTS OVER JAPAN-CHINA SUMMIT,"
Tokyo, 11/28/98) reported that PRC President Jiang Zemin on Saturday
criticized Japan's wartime atrocities in a speech at Tokyo's Waseda
University. Jiang stated, "Thirty-five million Chinese soldiers and
civilians were either killed or injured, and China suffered economic
losses worth more than $600 billion." Protesters tried to drown out
Jiang's speech, criticizing the PRC's human rights record. Outside,
scores of students protested the treatment of Chinese dissidents and the
PRC's nuclear weapons program.
7. Japanese Apology for World War II
The San Jose Mercury News (Michael Zielenziger, "CHINESE PRESIDENT
LECTURES JAPAN FOR ITS FAILURE TO ADEQUATELY APOLOGIZE FOR WWII," Tokyo,
11/28/98) reported that PRC President Jiang Zemin said Saturday that
Japan had not "properly laid to rest" its conduct in World War II. Jiang
said that relations between the PRC and Japan can proceed smoothly only
if Japan "squarely faces" its wartime past. He added that the process
not only would help Japan improve its relations with the PRC, but also
"would be beneficial to Japan itself." Jiang stated, "In Japan, there
are still certain people, and people in high positions, who constantly
distort history and to try to beautify aggression. This continues to
hurt the feelings of Chinese people and other people." He added, "The
Taiwan issue is a domestic affair of China. We very much hope the
Japanese side will live up to its word" that it would never become
involved in efforts to defend the island. Jiang also stated, "We never
had a thought of signing [a written] agreement" with Japanese Prime
Minister Keizo Obuchi.
The New York Times (Nicholas D. Kristof, "BURYING THE PAST," Tokyo,
11/30/98) reported that Akitaka Saiki, Japanese Prime Minister Keizo
Obuchi's spokesman, said that Japan was willing to apologize in writing
to the ROK but not to the PRC because the circumstances were different.
Saiki pointed out that Japan had colonized Korea but not China. He added
that the Japanese emperor had already gone to the PRC and apologized for
the war, while the emperor has not visited the ROK yet. Japanese Foreign
Minister Masahiko Koumura stated, "While [ROK] President Kim [Dae-jung]
made it clear that he would like to settle past history, it was not
necessarily the case" with Jiang.
The Associated Press (Joseph Coleman, "CHINA DISAPPOINTED IN JAPAN
APOLOGY," Tokyo, 11/27/98) reported that PRC President Jiang Zemin told
Japanese lawmakers on Friday that he disagreed that the PRC likes "to
take up the historical issue too often." He agreed with Japanese
opposition leader Naoto Kan that the apology offered by Japanese Prime
Minister Keizo Obuchi for Japanese atrocities in World War II was not
contrite enough.
8. Japanese Compensation for World War II
Reuters (Elaine Lies, "JAPAN REJECTS SECOND POW LAWSUIT IN LESS THAN A
WEEK," Tokyo, 11/30/98) reported that a Japanese court on Monday rejected
a compensation lawsuit brought by Dutch former prisoners of war and
civilian internees of World War II. However, the court did recognize
that the treatment the former prisoners received violated their human
rights under the Hague Convention. Gerard Jungslager, an attorney for
the plaintiffs, stated, "All that has been brought forth by the
plaintiffs in the matter of facts of inhumane treatment and violation of
human rights has been recognized by the court in relation to the Hague
Convention." He added that they would appeal the ruling because the
individual right to claim compensation was not recognized. Judge Taichi
Kajimura said, "Based on international law, individuals have no right to
demand compensation from a country. International law is on a country
level, and in the unusual cases where it can apply to an individual, a
clause in treaties is essential."
9. PRC Laser Development
The Los Angeles Times (Paul Richter, "CHINA MAY SEEK SATELLITE LASER,
PENTAGON WARNS," Washington, 11/28/98) reported that US Defense
Department spokesman Captain Michael Doubleday said that a report earlier
this month on PRC anti-satellite laser development [Ed. Note: See PRC
Laser Development in the US Section of the November 3 Daily Report]
constituted an "educated prediction" of the PRC military's future course.
Representative Curt Weldon (R-Pa.), the chairman of the House National
Security Committee's research and development subcommittee, said that the
issue of anti-satellite weapons "is real. It is substantive." Weldon
pledged that the new Congress would push for more spending on space
weaponry. One unnamed defense official noted that deploying a laser is a
complex and time-consuming task and would involve a variety of technical
problems. John Pike of the Federation of American Scientists said,
however, that the report "is a pretty strong statement, even with all the
modifiers." John Tkacik, a consultant to firms on Chinese affairs and a
former US foreign service officer, said that the PRC has been seeking
ways to offset US technological superiority and that six years ago they
identified satellites as a "strategic center" for doing so. Tkacik said
that any PRC anti-satellite effort would almost certainly be aimed at the
US satellite fleet, adding, "I can't think of any other reason they'd be
doing this." Major Mike Birmingham, a spokesman for the US Space
Command, said that the military is "fully aware that others recognize our
reliance on space" and that it must take steps "to guard against turning
our dependence into a vulnerability." At the same time, he said,
officials have taken "prudent steps" to safeguard the fleet, noting that
the redundant capabilities of US satellites would require an adversary to
disable many craft to shut down the armed forces' communications and
surveillance operations.
10. Spratly Islands Dispute
The Los Angeles Times ("CHINESE FISHERMEN HELD IN SPRATLYS," 11/30/98)
reported that Philippine military spokesman Major Romulo Gualdrapa said
that the Philippine navy has arrested 20 Chinese fishermen who were found
near Mischief Reef in the disputed Spratly Islands. Gualdrapa said that
the Chinese were aboard six fishing boats loaded with fish when they were
found by patrol ships about five nautical miles from the reef.
11. Taiwan Elections
The Associated Press ("VIOLENCE OVER TAIWAN ELECTION," Taipei, 11/28/98)
reported that Chen Ming-chiu, a candidate for the Taiwan Independence
Party, got into a fight Saturday with supporters of the main opposition
Democratic Progressive Party (DPP). The fight broke out when Chen
unfurled banners at the Changhua Rail Station in central Taiwan
denouncing DPP leader Hsu Hsin-liang as a "partner" of PRC President
Jiang Zemin.
12. US-Pakistan Talks
The Associated Press ("PAKISTAN PM LEAVES FOR U.S.; PLANS TO RAISE
KASHMIR ISSUE," Islamabad, 11/30/98) reported that Pakistani Prime
Minister Nawaz Sharif left Monday for a two-day visit to the US. Sharif
said in his departure statement, "I will underscore the need for greater
world attention in resolving the (Kashmir) dispute, the root cause of
tension and instability in South Asia." He also said that Pakistan's
security concerns and nonproliferation issues will be high on his agenda
during talks with US President Bill Clinton.
13. Russian Nuclear Safety
The Los Angeles Times (Elizabeth Shogren, "U.S. WORRIES THAT RUSSIAN
NUCLEAR TECHNOLOGY NEEDS MORE SAFEGUARDS," Washington, 11/28/98) reported
that the US is growing increasingly worried that Russia's political and
economic crises will increase the pace of nuclear proliferation.
However, nonproliferation experts warned that the Clinton administration
is not doing enough to stop the outflow. William C. Potter, director of
the Center for Nonproliferation Studies at the Monterey Institute of
International Studies, stated, "The assistance is not commensurate to the
threat, which has grown significantly as a consequence of the economic
crisis. I don't discount the progress we've made, but it tends to be
overwhelmed by the very, very destabilizing economic situation." He
added, "We have to focus more on personnel. We have a tendency to assume
we can solve the problem by supplying technology." Bruce Blair, an arms-
control specialist at the Brookings Institution, said, "These programs
that we've been promoting are just a drop in the bucket compared to
what's really needed. The deterioration of security and safety in Russia
has outpaced the effect of our assistance." He added, "There have been
two periods of acute concern: one in early '90s, during the breakup of
the Soviet Union, and today, with another crisis in economical, military
and political spheres." Blair also warned, "I strongly doubt that Russia
will be able to maintain adequate safety in their nuclear weapons
control, and an incident is quite possible." White House spokesman P.J.
Crowley said, regarding the proliferation of fissile material and
knowledge of how to use it, "We have always recognized this as something
we had to be concerned about." However, one anonymous White House
official stated, "there is no evidence that there has been a degradation
in the strategic rocket forces." White House officials said that the
administration is working on proposals for its next budget that would
supplement the existing programs aimed at helping Russia secure its
nuclear arsenal.
14. US Missile Defense
The Washington Post (Bradley Graham, "NAVY WILL GET A SHOT AT MISSILE
DEFENSE," 11/30/98, A01) reported that a high-level US Defense Department
panel that authorizes major defense acquisition programs is due soon to
approve the Navy's concept for turning its fleet of Aegis cruisers and
destroyers into mobile platforms for launching high-altitude anti-missile
interceptors. Intercept flight tests, however, will not begin until
2000, and senior department officials are skeptical that the Navy can
meet its aim of developing a modest initial capability by 2005. One
unnamed senior defense official stated, "The program has been long on
view graphs and short on engineering work." Thus far, the Navy has
invested US$1.1 billion in perfecting the concept for its Theater Wide
system since 1995, and the Defense Department's five-year budget provides
another US$1.5 billion for the program. The Navy, however, says it will
need nearly twice that amount to meet the 2005 target date. Rear Admiral
Phillip Balisle, vice commander of the Naval Sea Systems Command, stated,
"One of the advantages that the Navy has is that we're building on proven
systems. But I would not want to lead you to believe we have
underestimated the complexity of the mission." Some Congressional
supporters say that if US warships in the Pacific and Atlantic oceans
were able to shoot down intercontinental ballistic missiles, there would
be little need for the land-based national plan, which has been costing
nearly US$1 billion a year to develop. Using interceptors aboard ships
to guard US territory, however, would violate the 1972 Anti-Ballistic
Missile (ABM) Treaty signed with the Soviet Union. An unnamed senior
defense official stated, "The problem with the Navy system is, you have a
very limited radar and a really energetic, far-reaching missile. In the
[Army system], you have a medium-class missile and a first-class radar.
The obvious thing is to take advantage of both and cover the full battle-
space. Right now, we're trying to sort out what are real requirements of
each service and what are nice-to-have kind of stuff."
1. DPRK Underground Construction
Chosun Ilbo ("IAEA READY TO RALLY BEHIND ROK," Seoul, 11/30/98) reported
that ROK President Kim Dae-jung met with Mohamed El Baradei, the director
general of International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), at Chongwadae on
Monday afternoon. The director general told the president that it is
necessary to clarify the exact purpose of the suspected underground
nuclear arms facility in the DPRK and that the IAEA will support the ROK
in urging the DPRK to allow access to the site, according to Chongwadae
officials. Kim is known to have answered that the ROK will heed the
conclusions of the US and DPRK consultation on nuclear issues planned for
early December.
JoongAng Ilbo ("DPRK MAY PERMIT INSPECTION BY U.S.," Seoul, 11/30/98)
reported that there is a possibility that the DPRK will allow US
inspectors access to Kumchangri to determine if there is a nuclear
reactor. The inspections will likely be restricted to only around
Kumchangri, however, the Ministry of Unification (MOU) explained on
November 30. MOU analyzed in their weekly report released Monday that
the DPRK will not permit inspections for any other places except
Kumchangri. The DPRK intends to utilize the issue of suspected
underground facilities as a trump card for improving the relationship
between DPRK and the US, MOU posited.
JoongAng Ilbo ("ASSEMBLY PASSES ANTI-NUKE RESOLUTION," Seoul, 11/30/98)
reported that the ROK National Assembly on November 30 approved an anti-
nuclear resolution, sending a warning to the DPRK. The resolution
demands that the DPRK comply with the US request to investigate the
suspected underground nuclear facility at Kumchangri. Ruling and
opposition representatives of the Unification, Foreign Affairs and Trade
Committee also emphasized, "The DPRK's underground facilities are a
threat to the Korean peninsula and Northeast Asia. It is a violation of
the Geneva Agreement signed by the US and the DPRK. The Assembly
moreover expressed serious anxiety over the DPRK's alleged construction
of a nuclear storage facility. The Committee also asked the DPRK to
implement a policy that will enable separated family members in the ROK
and the DPRK to meet. In addition to these bills, the National Assembly
passed another 6 proposals, including an ROK-Canada mutual social
security pact and prevention of illegal drug dealing.
2. DPRK Chemical Weapons
Korea Herald ("DPRK FACES INTERNATIONAL PRESSURE TO JOIN CHEMICAL WEAPONS
BAN," Seoul, 11/30/98) reported that the highest official of an
international body against chemical weapons has agreed to pressure DPRK
to sign a treaty to destroy its chemical agents. Meeting with ROK
Defense Minister Chun Yong-taek last Thursday, Jose Bustani, secretary
general of the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons
(OPCW), promised he would spearhead efforts to pressure the DPRK to join
the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC), ministry officials said. OPCW
inspects the chemical weapons programs of more than 120 CWC member
countries. CWC member countries are banned from development, production,
acquisition, stockpile and use of chemical weapons, and are required to
destroy all the chemical weapons they possess within 10 years. Chun and
Bustani shared deep concern over the DPRK's chemical weapons capability,
and called on the DPRK to join the CWC, the ministry officials said.
Bustani was quoted as saying that the DPRK's chemical weapons threat has
been placed on the agenda for the coming OPCW general meeting. He also
agreed to speak at the UN to urge the DPRK to join the CWC. If the DPRK
refuses to sign the CWC, the OPCW will seek an international embargo
against the DPRK of chemical materials that could be used for production
of weapons, Bustani was quoted as saying. The US Department of Defense
last week warned that the DPRK's biological and chemical weapons are a
serious threat to the security in the Korean Peninsula.
3. Relief Workers in DPRK
JoongAng Ilbo ("ONE HUNDRED RELIEF WORKERS IN DPRK," Seoul, 11/30/98)
reported that an international relief squad of 100 members is staying in
the DPRK to help poverty-stricken DPRK citizens. An ROK governmental
source said on November 30, "We believe there are approximately 100
relief workers residing in Pyongyang, including World Food Plan (WFP)
members acting under the UN. Other than Pyongyang, the WFP is running
additional branch offices in Wonsan, Shinuiju, and Hyesan, with 37
personnel. The European Union has 6 members in the DPRK supervising
relief provisions."
4. ROK Army Reform
Korea Times ("GENERAL TILELLI'S CONCERN ABOUT ROK ARMY REFORM TO BE
ADDRESSED," Seoul, 11/30/98) reported that the future of the tentatively
named "ROK Ground Operations Command," a super army combining the 1st and
3rd ROK Field Armies that is a key part of Defense Minister Chun Yong-
taek's military reorganization plan, will likely attract keen attention
following the concern raised over it by General John Tilelli, commander
of the ROK-US Combined Forces Command (CFC). Ministry officials say that
Minister Chun sought the advice of General Tilelli regarding the ROK
Army's reorganization plan in the belief that, as CFC commander who would
operationally control frontline ROK troops in times of war, he should be
apprised of the plan. "The top ministry brass was caught off guard by
General Tilelli's reaction, which he expressed through a letter detailing
point by point observations about the ROK military reorganization plan,
especially about the merger of two ROK frontline Armies," a knowledgeable
source at the ministry said. Addressing the concerns that Tilelli raised
in his letter and during his meeting with ROK Joint Chiefs of Staff
Chairman General Kim Jin-ho, a senior ministry official said that his
worries will be fully addressed in the process of translating the
reorganization plan into reality.
5. Asian Monetary Fund Proposal
JoongAng Ilbo ("PRIME MINISTER DELIVERS SPEECH AT KYUSHU UNIVERSITY IN
JAPAN," Seoul, 11/30/98) reported that ROK Prime Minister Kim Jong-pil
delivered a speech in Japanese at Kyushu University in Japan on November
30. Kim emphasized the importance of the Asia Monetary Fund (AMF) and
Japan's activities in Asia. Kim said, "The Asian economic crisis cannot
be solved by the efforts of one certain country. Asia needs regional a
community like the economic integration in Europe." He also argued that
Japan should function as the center of northeastern Asia integration,
which would be a positive effect on world history. Kim also stressed the
positive aspects of Japan and the ROK's relationship. He argued that the
relations between the two countries is not "near but far from each other"
but "near and tight." He said that the unfortunate past was only the
seven years of the Japan-Korean War from 1592 to 1599 and the 36 years of
Japan's colonial ruling era. "This is very short compared to more than
1,500 years of relations between two countries." Kim added, "I really
thank the leaders of Japan for the economic cooperation fund support in
1965."
Korea Times ("AMF PROPOSAL SPARKS CONTROVERSY," Seoul, 11/30/98) reported
that ROK Prime Minister Kim Jong-pil's surprise proposal to create an
Asian version of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) during a meeting
with Japanese Premier Keizo Obuchi Friday has sparked a controversy.
Critics dismissed Kim's proposal as being unrealistic and speculated that
Kim may be risking national interest for his own personal political
gains. With respect to Kim's proposal, the Ministry of Finance and
Economy said it is hard to expect the creation of the so-called Asian
Monetary Fund in the near future. "Our stance is that the ROK will take
part in the creation of an AMF if the US and the IMF don't oppose the
idea. But given opposition by the US and the IMF and the latest
international trends in favor of strengthening the role of the IMF as a
firefighter against global financial turmoil, the immediate creation of
an AMF appears all but impossible," said Kim Woo-suk, director-general of
the international finance bureau at the Ministry of Foreign and Economic
Affairs. The official stopped short of flatly dismissing the premier's
proposal but seemed embarrassed to hear that the Prime Minister said what
was not the government's official position.
6. ROK Economic Crisis
Korea Herald ("RULING PARTY SAYS KIM YOUNG-SAM MUST TESTIFY AT HEARING,"
Seoul, 11/28/98) reported that a ruling party leader said Friday that
former President Kim Young-sam must testify at the planned parliamentary
hearing on the causes of the economic crisis. "Former President Kim must
explain the causes of the economic crisis in a responsible manner and
then the people will understand what brought about the crisis and we will
be able to lay the foundation for reforms," Representative Cho Se-hyung
said. Cho called for Kim Young-sam's testimony shortly after the ruling
coalition issued what was seen as a last warning to the opposition Grand
National Party (GNP) that it would push ahead with the planned
parliamentary probe of the financial crisis if the opposition continues
to reject negotiations. "The rival parties must agree on the details of
the planned hearings by no later than next Tuesday if they were to start
December 8 as agreed by President Kim and GNP leader Lee Hoi-chang," said
Representative Chung Dong-young, the NCNP spokesman.
7. Pollution Study on Northeast Asia
Chosun Ilbo ("POLLUTION STUDY PUBLISHED ON NORTHEAST ASIA," Seoul,
11/30/98) reported that the results of a six-year study on air pollution
in Northeast Asia, conducted by the Iowa State University, were published
Monday and showed a significant relationship between pollution emanating
from the PRC, the DPRK, the ROK, and Japan. According to the report
prepared by Professor Carmichael from the university and Dr. Street of
the National Argon Institute, the ROK and the PRC contributed 29 percent
and 32 percent, respectively, to the acid rain that falls in Kyushu,
Japan. In Kinki, the two countries were responsible for 18 percent and
13 percent, respectively. The total amount of sulfur dioxide emission in
Northeast Asia is 14.7 million tons, which breaks down into 11.9 million
tons from the PRC (81 percent); the ROK, 1.7 million tons (12 percent);
Japan, 800,000 tons (5 percent); and the DPRK, 300,000 tons (2 percent).
Pollution from the PRC contributed 13 percent to the overall figures for
the Seoul/Inchon area of the ROK, while Tokyo's levels showed an 11
percent contribution from the PRC and 9 percent from the ROK. In the
DPRK, 29 percent of its sulfur dioxide is self-generated, with 37 percent
and 34 percent coming from the ROK and the PRC respectively.
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International Policy Studies Institute
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The Center for Global Communications, Tokyo, Japan
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Fudan University, Shanghai, People's Republic of China
Berkeley, California, United States
Berkeley, California, United States
Seoul, Republic of Korea
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