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Northeast Asia Peace and Security Network DAILY REPORT For Tuesday, December 1, 1998, from Berkeley, California, USA |
1. Plot to Influence ROK Election
The Associated Press ("KOREA COURT OKS ELECTION CONVICTION," Seoul,
12/01/98) reported that an ROK appeals court on Tuesday upheld lower-
court convictions of six people found guilty of plotting to undermine
President Kim Dae-jung's 1997 election campaign. The court, however,
reduced the prison term of Lee Dae-sung, a former senior official of the
ROK National Security Planning Agency, from 2 years in prison to 18
months. Lee was found guilty of paying US$250,000 to Yoon Hong-joon, a
Korean-American businessman who falsely claimed that Kim's campaign was
funded by the DPRK. The appeals court also reduced Yoon's prison term by
six months to 1 1/2 years. The court also upheld suspended prison terms
for four lower-ranking intelligence agents found guilty of violating
election laws and a law that called for their agency's political
neutrality.
2. Asian Monetary Fund Proposal
Dow Jones Newswires ("JAPAN, S. KOREA LAWMAKERS AGREE ON ASIAN FUND -
KYODO," Tokyo, 12/01/98) reported that Japan's Kyodo News said that a
group of Japanese and ROK lawmakers agreed Tuesday to seek the
establishment of a proposed Asian Monetary Fund (AMF) to deal with
currency crises. The lawmakers announced the agreement in a joint
statement issued after a one-day meeting of the group in Tokyo.
According to Japanese officials, ROK Prime Minister Kim Jong-pil proposed
a US$300 billion AMF, and offered an ROK contribution should Japan take
the lead in realizing the fund initially at US$30 billion to US$50
billion. The Japanese and ROK lawmakers also agreed that a six-nation
framework for dialogue on policies toward the DPRK "is necessary in the
future for peace and stability in Northeast Asia."
3. US Arms Sales to Taiwan
Reuters (Lawrence Chung, "TAIWAN SAYS CONSIDERING BUYING US DESTROYERS,"
Taipei, 12/01/98) reported that Taiwan Defense Ministry spokesman General
Kung Fan-ting said on Tuesday that Taiwan was considering purchasing four
advanced destroyers from the US and joining the US-led Theater Missile
Defense (TMD) system. Kung stated, "We are still reviewing the
possibility." He added that the navy was evaluating whether to use Aegis
destroyers or anti-submarine frigates as the core of its new generation
fleet formation. He noted that the highly computerized Aegis destroyers
are designed to counter short and medium-range surface-to-surface
missiles and provide early warning against missile attacks. He said that
Aegis ships, together with already acquired Patriot missiles, would
qualify Taiwan to join the TMD, but that no decision had been taken. He
added that joining the TMD after its completion would be costlier than
getting in now. Taipei's China Times said that Taiwan would buy four
destroyers from the US, instead of building them itself under US license,
to counter missile threats from the PRC. However, an unnamed military
source stated, "The four warships alone would cost more than US$4
billion, a budget that would eat up our ongoing program of firepower
upgrading." Taiwanese military analyst Andrew Yang said that buying just
four Aegis warships would "consume nearly half of our annual national
defense budget." In Beijing, PRC Foreign Ministry spokesman Tang
Guoqiang responded, "We seriously oppose the United States selling
weapons to Taiwan."
4. PRC Laser Development
Reuters (Polly Sprenger, "OFFICIALS DOWNPLAY CHINA LASER THREAT," San
Francisco, 11/30/98) reported that Major Brian Salas, a US Defense
Department spokesman, on Monday downplayed a recent US Defense Department
report that the PRC could be developing a system of land-based laser
weapons. Salas stated, "The report looks at what the possibilities of
the future might hold." He added, "We're doing one thing we don't like
to do and that's speculate. But that's what Congress mandated us to do."
Salas said that the report was intended to present possible scenarios for
the PRC's technological development, adding, "Laser technology isn't
strictly for military use." The National Defense Authorization Act for
1998 directed the US Secretary of Defense to prepare an annual report on
military modernization in the PRC. Yu Shuning, a spokesman for the PRC
Embassy in Washington, denied any anti-satellite laser development,
calling recent media reports misleading. Yu stated, "We constitute no
threat to the United States."
1. DPRK Satellite Launch
JoongAng Ilbo ("DPRK DECORATED SATELLITE SCIENTISTS," Seoul, 12/01/98)
reported that the DPRK state-run Central Broadcasting Agency reported on
December 1 that the DPRK decorated scientists and technicians on November
30 who made "a great contribution to the successful launching" of the
Kwangmyongsung I satellite into orbit. The DPRK's claim of a successful
satellite launching is not shared by the outside world, which believes
the satellite failed to reach orbit. The broadcaster said, "Yang Kwang-
bok received the 'Labor Hero' title and gold medal as well as 'National
Order 1st Class,' along with seven other personnel on November 30 at the
4.25 Cultural Hall in Pyongyang." Kye Hun-bong and one other person
received the Kim Il-sung Order. A total of 160 scientists, technicians,
professors, and workers were decorated with various kinds of orders and
awards. High-ranking DPRK officials, including the Supreme People's
Assembly member Kim Young-nam, took part in the awards ceremony. This
kind of large-scale awards ceremony is interpreted to demonstrate the
prowess of DPRK technology in its alleged launching of a satellite into
orbit, which is still causing a controversy outside the DPRK.
2. Alleged Plot to Influence ROK Election
JoongAng Ilbo ("PANMUNJOM SHOOTING PLOT CAUSES POLITICAL RIFT AGAIN,"
Seoul, 12/01/98) reported that the political situation is once again
mired in tension over the alleged "Panmunjom Shooting Plot." The
opposition Grand National Party (GNP) expressed strong opposition to the
recent decision by the prosecutor's office to investigate Lee Hoi-chang,
the GNP's president. Lee said, "I feel really angry about the attempt of
the ruling National Congress of New Politics (NCNP) to damage and malign
our party just at the moment of our new start." The GNP feels that the
NCNP brought up the alleged plot again to use as a bargaining card in
budget negotiations. Park Hee-tae, the minority leader of the GNP,
expressed its strong stance by saying, "It is difficult to pass a budget
bill within the time limit. We can be flexible about the name and time
of economic hearings but the principle that the number of members from
the ruling and opposition parties should be the same is not negotiable."
Park Jie-won, a Chung Wa Dae spokesman said, "Both sides agreed that they
will wait for the result of the judges." Han Hwa-gap, the majority
leader of the NCNP, stated, "The political situation is expected to
deteriorate"
3. ROK Human Rights
Korea Herald ("HUMAN RIGHTS GROUPS DEMAND ABOLITION OF NATIONAL SECURITY
LAW AT YOIDO," Seoul, 12/01/98) reported that several human rights groups
strongly called for an immediate repeal of the National Security Law on
Monday, the 50th anniversary of the legislation. In a rally held at a
park near the National Assembly building in Yoido, the human rights
organizations said that the National Security Law (NSL) should be revoked
because it is anti-people, anti-democracy and anti-reunification. "For
the past 50 years, the law has been used to jail numerous pro-democracy
activists for their views and activities considered as pro-Communist,"
said Kim Chung-sook, head of the human rights group Minkahyop. "The
government should now annul the notorious law for the nation's democratic
progress." Violations of basic human rights have been committed in the
name of law, while debates and activities for the reunification of the
divided Peninsula have been suppressed, she contended. Since May this
year, the human rights groups have been staging a two-year international
campaign for the annulment of the security law, to which several foreign
human rights groups have provided support. Meanwhile, Amnesty
International, an international human rights group based in London, also
called on the ROK government to abolish the security law. The law is
still being used to imprison people for views and activities deemed "pro-
Communist," said Amnesty International, adding that the ROK should live
up to its international responsibilities under the Universal Declaration
of Human Rights and other human rights treaties.
4. Development of Cheju Island
Chosun Ilbo ("CHEJU TO BECOME FREE INTERNATIONAL CITY," Seoul, 12/01/98)
reported that Cheju Island, the ROK's most popular resort island, will be
transformed into a "free international city" with infrastructure and
regulations to encourage activity in such areas as trade, materials
transportation, information, financing, business and tourism. The ruling
National Congress for New Politics (NCNP) and the island government have
already worked out a tentative blueprint for the island's face-lift, and
have already reported the plan to Chongwadae. According to the Cheju
Island development plan, there will be no entry visa or import duties
required and there will be a 10-year moratorium on corporate and income
tax for businesses and workers on the island. The intention is for the
island to become a financial service center in the mold of other
prosperous Asian financial centers such as Hong Kong and Singapore. The
Cheju Island government projects that by 2010, it will be taking in as
much as US$80-100 billion annually through foreign direct investment,
tour income, rental charges and retail income. Employment for one
million people has also been forecast.
5. Kia Auction
Korea Times ("HYUNDAI TAKES OVER KIA," Seoul, 12/01/98) reported that
Hyundai Motor Company signed a contract on Monday on the takeover of
shares of Kia Motors and Asia Motors with major creditor Korea
Development Bank (KDB). Consequently, the ROK's automobile industry will
be dominated by the two superpowers of Hyundai and Daewoo. Daewoo
purchased Ssangyong Motor in January. Hyundai has decided to dispatch
experts to Kia and Asia to control the three key segments of finance,
domestic sales, and exports. The auto giant plans to conduct a large-
scale reshuffle of executives of Hyundai and Kia before mid-December to
normalize operations as soon as possible. Hyundai has launched
preparations to raise funds to inject into the near-bankrupt automakers
and to normalize them as early as possible. Hyundai also plans to
negotiate with major creditor financial institutions to acquire
additional relief loans. Meanwhile, Hyundai will have to pay 1,170
billion won by next March to purchase shares of Kia and Asia. The
capital will be raised from Hyundai Heavy Industries and other Hyundai
subsidiaries that have spare liquidity.
1. DPRK-PRC Relations
Nezavisimaia gazeta's Pavel Spirin ("PYONGYANG REMAINED IN SOLITUDE,"
Beijing, 6, 11/26/98) reported that ROK President Kim Dae-jung's recent
visit to the PRC, where he and PRC Chairman Jiang Zemin proclaimed the
two countries' "partnership," signified a cooling down of PRC-DPRK
"fraternal relations." Answering Nezavisimaia gazeta's author's question
about prospects for PRC-DPRK "strategic cooperation," PRC Foreign
Minister Tang Jiaxuan "stated with a barely perceived note of regret:
'North Korea due to known internal difficulties for over two years has
not been maintaining ties on the highest level with any country,
including China.'" In Nezavisimaia gazeta's author's opinion, DPRK
leader Kim Jong-il for four years since his predecessor's death has been
delaying a DPRK-PRC summit, at the same time demonstrating an obvious
desire to expand relations with Taiwan, including offering to bury
Taiwanese nuclear waste in the DPRK. Also, the planned visit of ROK
Defense Minister Lee Yung-hee early next year to the PRC, the first ever
trip of that kind, to discuss the regional military situation is bound to
cause strong indignation in the DPRK. Fear of a conflict, possibly with
nuclear weapons used, made PRC President Jiang Zemin agree at his talks
with ROK President Kim to a possible engagement of the RF and Japan in
the 4-Party talks. Being left alone now, "North Korea in the bargaining
it carries out in its dialogue with the US sooner or later would need
assistance from another UN Security Council Permanent Member, and
improving relations between Moscow and Pyongyang could provide exactly
that opportunity," an unnamed ROK diplomat said.
2. RF-DPRK Treaty
Segodnya's Aleksey Makarkin ("WILL RUSSIA'S ARMY DEFEND THE JUCHE IDEAS?"
Moscow, 3, 12/1/98) reported that RF-DPRK consultations began in Moscow
to prepare a draft for a new bilateral treaty. According to information
from the RF Foreign Ministry, the new document, unlike the old one of
1961, will not contain "politically obsolete clauses; in particular,
allied obligations in case of an aggression." Segodnya's author pointed
out that actually the military aspects of the 1961 treaty became "dead"
in 1990 when the USSR and the ROK established diplomatic relations. The
reason that "dead" treaties still exist is that it is easier to keep them
that way than to officially denounce them, as a denunciation is perceived
as a hostile act or a challenge. In April 1945 the USSR, for instance,
denounced its non-aggression treaty with Japan and some months later
hostilities started.
3. South Kurils Issue
Nezavisimaia gazeta ("KURIL 'BLADE' OF RUSSIAN-JAPANESE RELATIONS,"
Moscow, 3, 11/28/98) published an article by Aleksey Arbatov, Deputy
Chairman, Committee on defense, RF State Duma. Arbatov pointed out that,
as testified by the whole global experience, territorial problems are not
usually solved just on the basis of legal arguments or general principles
of "justice" alone. Serious economic, political, or strategic stimuli
are required as well for leaders to make a compromise. Thus, the real
reason that the RF and Japan are suffering a stalemate is the lack of a
real stimulus. On that basis, the author argues also that, contrary to
stereotypes popular in the RF, "were we to give back the isles,
investments will not flow widely to the country, the same way they do not
flow from the US, China, South Korea, Taiwan, and other countries with
which Russia does not have that kind of contradiction." On the other
hand, were the investment climate in the RF to be radically improved, "it
is difficult to imagine Japanese business on principle ignoring the
Russian market in view of other countries' capital hurrying to get there
and bringing good dividends.... When a need arises, in the East they can
also solve issues in a quite European way: rationally, quickly and
directly."
Sovetskaya Rossia's Sergey Ivanov ("FROM A KING'S PURSE TO A BEGGAR'S
BAG," Moscow, 4, 11/26/98) published an article devoted to the South
Kurils issue. The author actually argued against both a return of the
South Kurils to Japan and joint economic development of them. He listed
in detail the natural reserves there, claiming that the South Kurils'
gold and silver deposits are worth US$5 billion in world market prices,
its Iturup sulfur reserves are worth US$6.5 billion, and ferrous and non-
ferrous metals are altogether worth US$40 billion. Further, in the
Soviet times Soviet vessels had a fish catch of 1 million tons annually
in the South Kuril area, which is significant in view of forecasts that
in the 21st century proteins, not oil, will be the number one commodity.
The author argued that "a joint development" of the area might mean that
Japan would just start exploiting local bio-resources on such a scale
that fish would not be able to get to the Sea of Okhotsk through the
South Kuril straits and the RF soon would be left with no salmon or other
fish. Further on, the author speculated that in the 21st century Japan
would develop its own nuclear weapons to substantiate its claims and
expand economically to countries with low wages and weak or no trade
unions. Describing in detail the negative aspects of life and labor
conditions in Japan itself, the author argued that the present
inhabitants of the Kuril Islands who in case of the transfer prefer to
live in the Japanese "sphere of common prosperity," might find themselves
getting wages "10 times less then even Malaysians," who reportedly earn a
tenth of average Japanese wages.
4. Japanese Apology for World War II
Izvestia's Yuriy Savenkov ("BEIJING STILL HAS A GRUDGE AGAINST TOKYO,"
Moscow, 3, 11/27/98) reported that the visit to Japan of PRC Chairman
Jiang Zemin, the first ever of its kind, was on the verge of failure. It
turned out that the final declaration would not be signed by the leaders
of the two countries, but just published. The declaration in particular
provides for a hot line to promptly solve urgent bilateral issues. A
Japanese spokesman "tried to convince journalists that the signing of
that document had not been planned," but analysts believe that the lack
of signatures makes it somewhat less substantial politically, as all
previous communiques were usually signed. The main reason is that the
PRC insisted that Japan should bring "more clear apologies for its
aggression against China and ... more pronouncedly support China's policy
in regard to Taiwan." A compromise was seemingly reached, with Japanese
Premier Keizo Obuchi expected to pronounce the apologies and a clearer
position on Taiwan, but at the last moment the PRC decided that would not
be enough.
5. RF Arms Exporting Company Director
Segodnya's Aleksandr Koretskiy ("THE SIXTH," Moscow, 2, 11/28/98)
reported that Grigoriy Rapota, Deputy Secretary, RF Security Council, was
appointed Director of the RF state-controlled arms trading company
"Rosvo'oruzheniye." He is the sixth director since 1992. Rapota is a
career intelligence officer and in 1993-1998 served as a Deputy Director,
RF Foreign Intelligence Service, under Yevgeniy Primakov, the current RF
Premier.
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International Policy Studies Institute
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The Center for Global Communications, Tokyo, Japan
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Seoul, Republic of Korea
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