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Northeast Asia Peace and Security Network DAILY REPORT For Monday, December 21, 1998, from Berkeley, California, USA |
1. Sinking of DPRK Submarine
The Associated Press (Sang-hun Choe, "POISON CITED IN KOREA SPY BOAT
BODY," Seoul, 12/19/98) reported that ROK Defense Ministry officials said
Saturday that military investigators found traces of poison in a body
recovered from a suspected DPRK spy boat sunk by the ROK navy. The
officials said that the finding indicated that some of the boat's crewmen
may have killed themselves before their vessel was sunk on Friday.
Lieutenant Colonel Lee Woon-se, a ministry spokesman, stated, "We found
evidence that the man bit an ampoule of poison. We also found injuries
from gun shrapnel." He added that DPRK agents were trained to commit
suicide before being caught by ROK troops. ROK President Kim Dae-jung's
office said that the incident would not derail its policy towards the
DPRK.
The Associated Press ("S KOREA WANTS APOLOGY FROM N KOREA Seoul,
12/19/98) reported that the ROK Defense Ministry in a statement on
Saturday demanded that the DPRK apologize for sending a spy boat into ROK
waters. The statement said, "We are shocked and enraged by the North's
continued provocative infiltrations. We demand the North offer a
responsible and convincing explanation." It added that the UN Command
would demand talks with DPRK generals at Panmunjom to protest the
incursion.
Reuters (Yoo Choon-sik, "N.KOREA DENIES IT SENT VESSEL TO THE SOUTH,"
Seoul, 12/19/98) reported that the DPRK official Korean Central News
Agency quoted a spokesman for the semi-governmental Committee for the
Peaceful Reunification of the Fatherland as saying on Saturday that the
DPRK had nothing to do with a vessel sunk by ROK forces. The spokesman
stated, "The incidents have nothing to do with the North. We can no
longer remain a passive onlooker to the South Korean puppets' continuous
anti-communist campaign and slander against the North. The campaign can
convince no one. We will take resolute measures so that the provokers
may drink a bitter cup."
US State Department Spokesman Jamie Rubin ("STATE DEPARTMENT NOON
BRIEFING, DECEMBER 18, 1998," USIA Transcript, 12/18/98) said that the US
deplores the latest DPRK attempt at submarine infiltration. Rubin
stated, "We are consulting closely with South Korea. This incident
highlights the need for tension reduction and confidence-building
measures on the Korean Peninsula, as the President of South Korea and
President Clinton have called for." He added, "We will continue our
various efforts to resolve our concerns through bilateral dialogue with
North Korea and through the four-party talks."
The Associated Press (Paul Shin, "SOUTH KOREA HUNTS FOR N. KOREA SHIP,"
Seoul, 12/18/98) reported that ROK navy ships and planes on Friday began
a sea and air search for the ship that launched the DPRK boat that was
sunk by the ROK military. Lieutenant General Chung Young-jin, commander
of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Operations Headquarters, stated, "We're now
involved in reconnaissance operations to pursue the mother ship, which is
believed to be outside South Korean territorial waters." Chung said four
men had been seen on the boat, and Navy frogmen were searching for more
bodies. He added, "The speedboat is believed to have been dispatched to
infiltrate agents into the South, pick up agents stationed in the South,
or establish secret, espionage-related drop-off points." He said it was
believed to have been launched by a ship weighing up to 100 tons and
sailing out of the port of Nampo on the DPRK's west coast. On shore, ROK
soldiers and police were placed on high alert, increasing security checks
for possible infiltrators.
2. ROK-Japan Maritime Incident
The Associated Press ("S.KOREA WARSHIP FIRES WARNING SHOTS, Tokyo,
12/21/98) reported that Japanese coast guard spokesman Shinji Sezaki said
that an ROK warship fired warning shots Monday near a Japanese boat
fishing for tuna in international waters between the two countries.
Sezaki said that several shots landed about 330 feet from the vessel, but
the pilot was unhurt. He noted that the incident occurred about six
miles east of the site where ROK navy ships sank a DPRK speedboat on
Friday. An ROK coast guard spokesman, identified only as Lieutenant
Colonel Kim, would not say if the fishing boat was confused for such a
ship. Kim said the warship fired the warning shots after the ship's
pilot failed to respond to warnings to leave the area. The Japanese
coast guard warned Japanese fishing boats to be careful in their
operations in the Korean Straight.
3. Alleged DPRK Military Construction
The Associated Press ("REPORT: NORTH KOREA IN ARMS BUILDUP," Tokyo,
12/19/98) reported that Japan's Kyodo News agency said Saturday that
Japan believes that the DPRK has three suspected nuclear weapons
development facilities and has begun construction of new missile launch
sites. A Defense Agency report described one of two new missile sites as
being near the northern border with the PRC and the other as near the
southern border with the ROK. The three nuclear-related sites cited by
the agency include a nuclear reprocessing facility in Kumchangri, a
trigger device testing compound in Kwisong, and an underground facility
in Taechon, although it was unclear whether the underground sites at
Kwisong and Kumchangri were separate facilities or different names for
the same facility. However, the agency reported no signs that the DPRK
has begun preparations for a new missile launch.
4. DPRK Food Aid
("NORTH KOREA OFFERS THANKS FOR FOOD," Seoul, 12/21/98) reported that the
DPRK's Flood Damage Rehabilitation Committee on Monday thanked the UN and
other donors for continuing to help feed its people. The Committee
stated, "We are grateful to the United Nations, international
organizations, countries and individual groups for continuously rendering
food, farming materials, (medicines) and other materials out of noble
humanitarianism."
5. PRC-Taiwan Relations
The Associated Press ("TAIWAN LEADER MAY MEET WITH ZEMIN," Tokyo,
12/20/98) reported that Japan's Yomiuri Shimbun newspaper on Saturday
quoted Taiwan President Lee Teng-hui as saying that he would eventually
like to meet PRC President Jiang Zemin when the timing is right. Lee did
not give details, but suggested a meeting might be possible during the
annual summit of leaders from the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation
(APEC) forum. However, Lee added that a bilateral meeting with Jiang at
APEC was unlikely as long as the PRC continues to protest Lee's presence
at the summit.
6. PRC Dissident's Visit to Taiwan
The Associated Press (Christopher Bodeen, "CHINESE DISSIDENT TO VISIT
TAIWAN," Taipei, 12/20/98) reported that exiled Chinese dissident Wei
Jingsheng would travel to Taiwan on Monday to meet with top officials,
including President Lee Teng-hui. Wei will also meet with heads of the
opposition Democratic Progressive Party and the New Party. The United
Daily News on Sunday quoted Wei as saying that Taiwan's democracy is a
threat to the PRC, which will not pass up an opportunity to "eat up the
island." He added that the best way to ensure Taiwan's security is to
aid the PRC's democracy movement. During his trip, Wei may also visit a
human rights memorial near a former prison on remote Green Island where
political prisoners were confined and sometimes executed during nearly
four decades of martial law.
7. Taiwanese Elections
The Los Angeles Times carried an opinion article by Daniel C. Lynch,
Assistant Professor of International Relations at the University of
Southern California ("DO NOT FEAR DEMOCRACY IN TAIWAN, 12/21/98) which
argued against the view that Taiwan democracy threatens to destabilize
world politics by leading to a referendum on Taiwanese independence. The
author argued, "Taiwan's democratization is in fact a force for stability
in cross-strait relations that helps ensure that the island's leaders
will not take rash actions that threaten regional security. In the past
three years, Taiwan's democracy has matured to the point that a genuine
consensus has developed around the notion that it would be dangerous and
even foolish to declare independence." He added, "it is precisely
democratization, including increasing media freedoms that facilitate
debate, that allows this consensus to develop and take root." He noted,
"the radical liberalization of the media now forces independence
supporters to debate objectively among themselves and with KMT supporters
just how wise such a course would be." He concluded, "The days of high-
stakes brinkmanship in Taiwan politics are over. The people speak almost
daily through polls, letters to the editor and radio and television call-
in shows, and they express a consistent desire for maintaining the status
quo. No Taiwan politician can afford to ignore this sentiment. No one
in Washington or Beijing need fear Taiwan democracy."
8. Taiwanese Toxic Waste Export
Reuters ("CAMBODIAN PORT CALM AFTER VIOLENT WASTE PROTESTS,"
Sihanoukville, 12/20/98) reported that at least one person was killed on
Sunday during violent protests in Cambodia's port city of Sihanoukville
against suspected toxic waste dumped near the city by the Taiwanese firm
Formosa Plastics. Cambodian officials said on Monday that 30
Sihanoukville customs, port, and local police officials, including their
chiefs, had been suspended as investigations continued into the waste
shipment. A technical expert from the UN was due to arrive in Cambodia
on Monday to help analyze the suspect material. The waste is believed by
local environmental inspectors to be compressed ash from an industrial
waste incinerator and to also contain hazardous material such as lead,
zinc, and mercury. Health Minister Mam Bunheng had said the deaths of at
least two local residents and five cases of dizziness appeared connected
to their involvement in movement of the waste. Formosa Plastics has said
the material is industrial waste with traces of mercury, but had been
certified by Taiwan's Environmental Protection Administration as being
well below hazardous levels and safe for landfill disposal. Cambodian
Prime Minister Hun Sen has said the waste must be sent back to Taiwan
immediately and appealed for international assistance to resolve the
problem.
9. PRC Environmental Movement
The Associated Press (John Leicester, "BUDDING ENVIRONMENTAL MOVEMENT IS
PLANTING SEEDS OF A 'GREEN' CHINA," Beijing, 12/20/98) reported that a
small band of environmental activists in the PRC have been allowed to
form groups and campaign publicly, as long as they refrain from attacking
government policies. The article said that the environmental movement is
part of a nascent civil society in the PRC that includes women's groups
and public health campaigners. It added that environmental groups' focus
on recycling dovetails with government efforts to make people more
environmentally aware and to promote sustainable development. Liang
Congjie, head of the Friends of Nature group, said that government
officials have realized that "we help them achieve many things." Liang
added, "We know where the limitations are. We try to avoid the politics
as much as we can, just focus on environmental issues." However, Dai
Qing, author of a banned book attacking the Three Gorges Dam, said that
official restrictions limit the effectiveness of the movement. Dai
stated, "Without [the groups], the hopes of changing the environmental
consciousness of the Chinese people would be even smaller than they are
now, but they have not yet played the big role we would like."
10. US-Pakistan Fighter Dispute
The Associated Press ("PAKISTAN SAYS F-16 DISPUTE RESOLVED," Islamabad,
12/19/98) reported that Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif said
Saturday that Pakistan's dispute with the US over the purchase of 28 F-16
fighter planes has been resolved. Pakistan will get US$467 million from
the US, the outstanding amount it paid for the fighter planes it never
received. Earlier, Pakistan had received US$157 million as partial
repayment. Sharif stated, "The F-16s issue has been a long-standing and
a persistent irritant in our bilateral relations with the United States.
I am delighted that this issue has been satisfactorily settled." He said
that the repayment will be divided into a US$327 million cash payment
before the end of December and a US$140 million payment in wheat and
other commodities over the next two years.
11. Indian-Russian Defense Pact
Reuters ("INDIA, RUSSIA TO SEAL DEFENSE PACT IN PRIMAKOV TRIP," New
Delhi, 12/19/98) reported that Indian officials said on Saturday that
India and Russia will sign a number of agreements during a visit of
Russian Prime Minister Yevgeny Primakov starting Sunday, including a new
pact on long-term military cooperation. An unnamed Indian foreign
ministry official said that the new defense agreement would build on and
extend an existing defense cooperation pact to 2010. He declined to
specify the areas of military collaboration but said that "anything
between 45 percent to 80 percent" of Indian military equipment was of
Soviet origin. Defense analysts said the agreement was largely aimed at
ensuring a smooth supply of military spare parts to the Indian armed
forces.
12. Russian Ratification of START II
Agence France Presse ("OUTRAGED RUSSIA BINS NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT TREATY,
RECALLS US AMBASSADOR," Moscow, 12/18/98) reported that Russian lawmakers
on Thursday postponed ratification of the START II nuclear disarmament
treaty in protest over US air strikes on Iraq. Duma speaker Gennady
Zyuganov said that his Communist Party and its allies would vote down
moves to put START II on the day's agenda.
RFE/RL Newsline ("START-II RATIFICATION SWITCHES TO INDEFINITE HOLD,"
12/18/98) reported that various Russian politicians said that the
ratification of START II is likely to be delayed for at least another six
months. Presidential spokesman Dmitrii Yakushkin said on Friday that
chances for ratification have "really faded." A spokesman for First
Deputy Prime Minister Yurii Maslyukov said that although the treaty
should still be ratified, it would be inappropriate to do so while air
strikes on Iraq are occurring.
1. DPRK Alleged Underground Facility
Korea Herald ("ROK, JAPAN, U.S. TO DISCUSS KUMCHANGNI SITE," Seoul,
12/21/98) reported that the ROK, the US, and Japan are scheduled to meet
Tuesday to discuss the suspect underground facility under construction in
the DPRK. At the talks to be held in New York, the three countries will
review the two rounds of talks between the US and the DPRK and the US
demand for access to what is alleged to be a nuclear facility in
Kumchangri. At the upcoming New York talks, the ROK, the US, and Japan
are expected to discuss the easing of US economic sanctions on the DPRK
and the provision of food aid to the DPRK.
2. DPRK Defectors in PRC
Chosun Ilbo ("PRC DEPORTS 150 DPRK DEFECTORS," Seoul, 12/21/98) reported
that the PRC's Public Security Authority held mass detentions in Tunghwa,
Jiling Province last Wednesday, arresting 150 DPRK defectors whom they
deported back to the DPRK. The Citizens Union for Human Rights in North
Korea (CUHRNK) claimed that ROK and Japanese tourists reported the
incident and said they witnessed children among the group. Police
apparently searched the houses of ethnic Korean-Chinese and, having
rounded up the group, deported them on a train at 10:30 am. The
organization commented that there had been isolated incidents of
deporting DPRK defectors, but this was the first time such a large group
had been returned. CUHRNK sent letters to PRC President Jiang Zemin and
the UN High Commissioner for Refugees calling for DPRK defectors to be
treated as asylum seekers and as such not to be repatriated.
3. UNICEF Aid to DPRK
JoongAng Ilbo ("UNICEF TO GIVE 4.7 MILLION DOLLARS IN AID TO DPRK,"
Seoul, 12/21/98) reported that the ROK Ministry of Unification (MOU)
announced on December 21 that UNICEF plans to give US$4.7 million to the
DPRK over two years beginning in 1999. A source at the MOU said, "UNICEF
and the DPRK signed an agreement and worked out a schedule plan on
December 18 in Pyongyang. This plan aims to provide support for infants
and pregnant women. It will also provide food and other provisions for
public nurseries and orphanages, and improve environmental conditions
overall for infants." UNICEF's support will concentrate on solving the
chronic malnutrition and incomplete development of children in the DPRK.
4. DPRK Cultural Imports to ROK
JoongAng Ilbo ("GOVERNMENT TO APPROVE THE SALE OF DPRK'S MOVIES AND
VIDEOS," Seoul, 12/20/98) reported that the ROK government will approve
commercial sales of movies and videos made by the DPRK, beginning in
January 1999. A source at the Agency for National Security Planning
announced on December 20, "The government will initially open up non-
political fields like culture, art, and tourism." The source also said,
"The Agency already concluded consultations at the executive level with
the Ministry of Unification and Culture and Tourism. The government has
already approved the sale of Mt. Kumgang tour video tapes." Accordingly,
broadcasting companies and even ordinary citizens can import movies and
videos from DPRK once they notify the government.
5. Confidence Vote for ROK Minister of Defense
Chosun Ilbo ("DEFENSE MINISTER SURVIVES NO CONFIDENCE VOTE," Seoul,
12/21/98) reported that ROK Minister of Defense Chon Yong-taek narrowly
survived a no confidence vote in the National Assembly Monday over his
handling of recent incidents involving the military. With 275 lawmakers
present, 135 voted in favor of dismissal and 135 against, with 1
abstention and 1 spoiled paper, falling short of the 150 votes needed to
force his resignation. Analysts said that at least four ruling party
assembly men must have voted against Chon, amid opposition calls that he
still resign as he had no clear mandate.
6. ROK Election Scandal
Korea Herald ("CHANG CLAIMS HE DELIVERED LETTER FROM PRESIDENT KIM TO
DPRK," Seoul, 12/21/98) reported that Chang Sok-chung, one of the three
suspects in a failed plot to cause an inter-Korean border shoot-out,
claimed Saturday he had worked as a secret messenger to the DPRK for
President Kim Dae-jung. Testifying at the second trial for the three
suspects, Chang said he conveyed a letter from then President-elect Kim
Dae-jung to a top official of the DPRK's Committee for Peaceful
Reunification of the Fatherland during a visit to the DPRK from January
24 to February 4. Chang was accompanied by an ROK agricultural expert to
discuss inter-Korean projects, including how to ease the DPRK's food
shortage problems by increasing corn production. Kim said in the letter
that his incoming administration wanted to establish a channel for
dialogue with the DPRK to hold meetings between high-level officials and
eventually summit talks, Chang said. He testified that he had heard
about the content of the letter before leaving for the DPRK from Lim
Dong-won, then secretary-general of the Asia-Pacific Peace Foundation set
up by President Kim. Lim was appointed senior presidential secretary for
foreign affairs and national security when President Kim took office in
February.
Korea Times ("KIM DJ CAMP PROMISED NOTHING TO DPRK," Seoul, 12/21/98)
reported that Chong Wa Dae spokesman Park Jie-won said Sunday that the
Kim Dae-jung camp made no promises to the DPRK during last year's
presidential campaign period. At the same time, he denied a newspaper
report which stated that the former opposition National Congress for New
Politics (NCNP) last year offered the DPRK a US$1 billion investment on
condition that the DPRK exercise "restraint" during the campaign period.
This allegation was made by Chang Sok-jung, one of the so-called three
"aides" to opposition leader Lee Hoi-chang, during his trial on Saturday.
Chang was arrested on suspicion of having solicited DPRK to wage a shoot-
out in the truce village of Panmunjom just days before the 1997
presidential election in hopes that conservative voters would back Lee
Hoi-chang's bid for the presidency. Spokesman Park, who was one of the
Kim Dae-jung camp's core campaign strategists during the campaign, said,
"Concrete legal action will be taken against Chang if he is found to have
made false statements detrimental to the NCNP." Park went on to say that
the Kim Dae-jung camp "could not even think of contacting DPRK agents" as
they were under constant surveillance by domestic intelligence officials.
1. Alleged US Nuclear Strike Plans against the DPRK
Segodnya's Maksim Yusin ("AN ANTI-AMERICAN WAVE IS GETTING STRONGER IN
RUSSIA," Moscow, 1, 12/18/98) reported that nowadays in the RF one can
see a rare consensus between the executive and legislative authorities
and between different political parties caused by US and British missile
and air strikes against Iraq. In addition to several diplomatic steps
and increase of military alert, various statesmen and politicians are
calling for changes in the draft 1999 budget to increase defense
expenditures and to boycott imports from the US, as well as proposed US
aid. The author stated, "But best of all the degree of anti-American
hysteria that has seized the lower parliamentary chamber is illustrated
by the remarks made by Roman Popkovich, Chairman, Defense Committee, RF
State Duma, a member of the Our Home Is Russia faction. According to
Interfax news agency, he quite seriously declared that the US 'harbors
plans of a nuclear strike against North Korea.'"
2. Sinking of DPRK Submarine
Izvestia's Yuriy Savenkov ("A SUBMARINE FROM PYONGYANG SUNK IN SOUTH
KOREAN WATERS," Moscow, 3, 12/19/98), Segodnya's Aleksandr Chudodeyev
("KIM JONG IL ENVIES THE GLORY OF SADDAM HUSSEIN," Moscow, 3, 12/19/98)
and Nezavisimaia gazeta's Marina Smirnova ("A FIASCO OF NORTH KOREAN
INTELLIGENCE," Moscow, 2, 12/19/98) reported that a DPRK 10-ton "half-
submersible type" intelligence submarine was intercepted in ROK
territorial waters. The DPRK bought some 50 submarines of that type,
some of them made of plastic, in Yugoslavia in the 1970s. 12 ships and 3
planes tried to "block" it, but it opened fire and as a result of the
return fire was sunk 100 kilometers south of Koje Island. The dead body
of a DPRK submariner was found, and ROK troops and police undertook a
search operation similar to the one that took place in September last
year. Segodnya's author in addition speculated about the DPRK's reasons
for sending the submarine. Some observers believe that the DPRK military
needed intelligence for their missile program. Last Thursday sources in
the RF Defense Ministry revealed that a notification about a forthcoming
DPRK ballistic missile launching from Musudan Cape launching site was
received at the international joint (RF and US) missile launch control
center. The DPRK so far has not reacted to the submarine incident, but
sharply criticized the US for missile strikes against Iraq. In addition,
a couple of weeks ago former US Defense Secretary William Perry admitted
that during the US-DPRK dispute in 1994 over the DPRK nuclear program,
the US developed plans for a massive missile strike against the DPRK.
Therefore, the author concluded, "at present Kim Jong-il's solidarity
with Saddam Hussein looks quite logical."
3. DPRK War Warnings
Segodnya ("PYONGYANG IS READY TO ANSWER WASHINGTON WITH A DEVASTATING
BLOW," Moscow, 3, 12/15/98) reported that the DPRK Consulate General on
December 14 circulated in the city of Nakhodka a statement that the US is
preparing to start a "second Korean War" against the DPRK, in case they
fail to get an opportunity to inspect underground facilities in DPRK
territory. Allegedly the war is to consist of 5 stages: blockade, air
strikes, airborne operation to encircle Pyongyang, occupation of the
whole territory, and then "re-unification of the country under the
liberal democratic system." Over 545,000 US troops, over 630,000
"puppet" ROK troops, 5-7 US Navy ships, and the US Air Force are to be
engaged. The DPRK "does not wish a war, but does not avoid it either"
and "a devastating blow" would be the answer, the statement emphasized.
4. US-Japan Anti-Missile Defense
Nezavisimoye voyennoye obozreniye's Daniil Vyazemskiy ("ANTI- MISSILE
TANDEM IN THE FAR EAST," Moscow, 12/17-24/98, #48(122)) published an
article on US-Japanese relations and Japan's attitude concerning a
creation of a theater anti-missile defense system since 1993, when the
DPRK first launched its "Rodong 1" missile. The launching of a DPRK
missile on August 31, 1998 gave a new impetus to the activities. While
in the past Japan tried to lay more of a burden on the US, now, in the
author's opinion, the situation is such that US assistance might come too
late. The Japanese government is expected to make its decision based on
research that has been going on for some time. The author also argued
that if the PRC's reaction to creation of that anti-missile system is
negative, then creation of such system in Japan will accelerate
modernization of the PRC's nuclear weapons and ICBMs.
5. RF Citizens in South Kurils
Izvestia's Andrey Nekrasov and Mikhail Klimentyev ("KURILS ARE GOING TO
JAPAN," Moscow, 1, 2, 12/16/98) published an article on their trip to the
South Kurils. The main idea of the article was that the "South Kurils do
not need to go officially under Japan's jurisdiction. They already have
one feet in the Country of the Rising Sun," because Japanese-made cars
run there exclusively, and only Japanese eggs and apples are sold in the
shops. "During a winter storm, we were warming ourselves sitting near
Japanese heaters and drinking Japanese tea from Japanese kettles," wrote
the authors. "We saw bilingual names written on fishing vessels coming
to the pier built by Japanese. There are hieroglyphs on all seafood
packages produced here." Locals complained that the price of "babaika,"
Japanese fruit vodka, had increased two-fold. Local sailors regularly
visiting Hokkaido ports bring back everything from video cameras to
gasoline to cars to fruit. "Now we are almost Japan" was the reaction of
a majority of locals to the recent signing of a friendship and economic
cooperation agreement between Hokkaido and Sakhalin Region, which
incorporates the South Kurils. Locals can go to Hokkaido visa-free, and
moreover are entertained there free of charge. Obviously "the state has
forgotten about its citizens" living in the South Kurils. Only foreign
investments can let the RF economically sustain the Isles. Some of those
who left after the 1994 earthquake are now returning. The authors
concluded, "Therefore there is hope. But which flag should they hope
for?"
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International Policy Studies Institute
Seoul, Republic of Korea
The Center for Global Communications, Tokyo, Japan
Center for American Studies,
Fudan University, Shanghai, People's Republic of China
Berkeley, California, United States
Berkeley, California, United States
Seoul, Republic of Korea
Tokyo, Japan
Moscow, Russian Federation
Shanghai, People's Republic of China
Shanghai, People's Republic of China