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Northeast Asia Peace and Security Network DAILY REPORT For Tuesday, December 22, 1998, from Berkeley, California, USA |
1. ROK Contribution to US Military Costs
The Associated Press ("S. KOREA TO PAY $333M FOR US TROOPS," Seoul,
12/22/98) and Reuters ("SOUTH KOREA TO PAY LESS IN '99 FOR KEEPING U.S.
TROOPS," Seoul, 12/22/98) reported that US and ROK military officials
said Tuesday that the ROK will pay US$333 million for the maintenance of
US troops stationed there next year. The 1999 figure is down fromUS$399
million this year as the ROK will pay about two-thirds of the cost in the
Korean currency at a pre-crisis exchange rate of about 900 won to the
dollar. The won traded at 1208.5 to the dollar on Tuesday. The
arrangement is part of a new "Special Measures Agreement" negotiated
between the US and the ROK for the 1999-2001 period. Lee Ferguson, US
Forces Korea's (USFK) acting public information officer stated, "The USFK
is well aware of the economic problems facing Korea as well as other
Asian nations, and has incorporated the understanding into the new
agreement." The ROK Defense Ministry said that out of the US$333
million, payment of US$40 million would be deferred to the following
year. The ROK's cost-sharing contribution would be adjusted for the
years 2000 and 2001, according to changes in the ROK's rate of inflation
and the gross national product (GNP), the ministry said.
2. ROK Defector
The Associated Press ("REPORT: S.KOREAN DEFECTS TO N.KOREA," Seoul,
12/22/98) reported that North's official Korean Central News Agency
(KCNA) said Tuesday that ROK dissident Yoon Sung-shik, 60, has defected
to the DPRK. KCNA quoted Yoon as saying that he defected to the DPRK
because "justice, progress, democracy and reunification of Koreas cannot
be realized" under the ROK government. The ROK Agency for National
Security Planning said that Yoon disappeared while visiting an
unidentified third country to seek treatment for a heart ailment. The
DPRK described Yoon as an active dissident leader, involved in four
dissident groups. Two of the groups confirmed that Yoon was a member but
said they know little about him.
3. Alleged Iranian Missile Sales to DPRK
The Associated Press ("JAPAN CONCERNED ABOUT SUSPECTED IRANIAN MISSILE
PART SALES," Tokyo, 12/22/98) reported that Japan's Kyodo News agency
said that Japanese Prime Minister Keizo Obuchi told Iran's visiting
Foreign Minister Kamal Kharrazi on Tuesday that he is worried about
suspicions that Iran is supplying missile parts to countries like the
DPRK. Kharrazi, who is on a three-day visit to Tokyo, declined to
comment on the issue during his meeting with Obuchi.
4. Japanese Satellite Development
The Associated Press ("JAPAN TO LAUNCH SPY SATELLITES," Tokyo, 12/22/98)
reported that the Japanese Cabinet approved a plan Tuesday to launch four
surveillance satellites by 2002. On Monday, the Japanese Finance
Ministry designated US$74.1 million in research spending on the
surveillance satellite project for the next fiscal year, which begins
April 1. Agency official Masaaki Nishijo said that the sum would include
US$58.6 million for technology studies by the Science and Technology
Agency.
5. US Military on Okinawa
The Associated Press ("US RETURNS TRAINING SITE TO OKINAWA," Tokyo,
12/22/98) reported that the US armed forces on Tuesday returned the Aha
drill site on Okinawa to Japanese control. US Marines had been using the
Aha facility for training, including exercises in amphibious landings and
setting up command posts. Regional defense official Kenji Fujimoto said
that the site is the first of 11 US facilities scheduled to revert to
Japan under a 1996 deal. The US has promised to eventually give back 20
percent of the territory in Okinawa occupied by US troops. Japanese
Chief Cabinet Secretary Hiromu Nonaka was quoted by Kyodo News as saying
that the handover was "very significant" because it symbolizes progress
in efforts to scale back the US military presence in Okinawa.
6. Indian-Russian Relations
Reuters (Sanjeev Miglani, "INDIA, RUSSIA TO SEAL STRATEGIC PACT," New
Delhi, 12/22/98) reported that Russian Prime Minister Yevgeny Primakov
ended a two-day visit to India on Tuesday by announcing plans to sign a
strategic partnership pact next year. A joint statement by the two sides
said, "The sides intend to move towards strategic partnership, which will
be confirmed during their next summit level meeting by the signing of the
Declaration of Strategic Partnership between the Republic of India and
the Russian Federation." The joint statement cited a number of bilateral
accords signed over the past three decades in emphasizing the planned
partnership. It stated, "This political document of paramount importance
will set new parameters and guide the further development of the close
relationship between India and Russia." It added, "Both sides expressed
the view that the development of active and constructive bilateral
relations between Russia and other major countries of the Asia and
Pacific region would contribute to stability and security." The
statement said, "the sides proceed from the understanding that it was
necessary to create a multi-polar world based on the sovereign equality
of all states, democratic values and justice." It also noted, "Russia
considers India, an influential member of the international community, to
be a strong and appropriate candidate for permanent membership of an
expanded [UN] Security Council."
The International Herald Tribune ("PRIMAKOV SEEKS 'STRATEGIC TRIANGLE',"
New Delhi, 12/22/98) reported that Russian Prime Minister Yevgeni
Primakov said Monday that he favored a "strategic triangle" involving the
PRC, Russia, and India to ensure regional stability. Primakov stated, "A
lot depends in the region on the policies of China, Russia and India. If
we succeed in establishing a strategic triangle, it will be very good."
While stressing that he had made no "formal proposal," he said that such
a partnership would provide "greater stability, not just in the region
but in the entire world." Indian Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee
declined to comment directly on the concept, saying only that India's
ties with Russia were "time-tested," and that it was "trying to improve
relations" with the PRC.
1. DPRK Missile Launch
Korea Herald ("DPRK MISSILE WOULD JEOPARDIZE KEDO PROJECT, SAYS JAPANESE
OFFICIAL," Seoul, 12/22/98) reported that a high ranking Japanese Foreign
Ministry official on Monday warned the DPRK that the light-water reactor
project for the DPRK could be jeopardized if it launches another missile.
Keizo Takemi, visiting Japanese state secretary for foreign affairs, said
that the Korean Peninsula Energy Development Organization (KEDO) can
interrupt at anytime its US$4.6 billion project to provide two light-
water nuclear reactors for the DPRK in return for freezing its nuclear
weapons development program. "If a Taepodong missile is launched again,
it will be very difficult for the Japanese government to carry out the
KEDO process," Takemi said on Monday. Takemi, who came to Seoul Monday
for a three-day visit, said the firing of another missile from the DPRK
would make it impossible for the Japanese government to secure a budget
allocation for the project from the parliament. "We have to ask the Diet
to ratify the agreement, which allows the government to spend money for
it," he said. He stressed that the basic position of the Japanese
government is to keep the KEDO process alive to contain the DPRK's
nuclear weapons capability. He said that if Japan's antipathy against
the DPRK intensifies, it could invite a backlash from the Diet as well as
the Japanese government.
2. ROK Contribution to US Military Costs
Chosun Ilbo ("PAYMENT FOR US FORCES TO DECREASE TO $333 MILLION," Seoul,
12/22/98) reported that the ROK government has decided to contribute
US$333 million for the cost of maintaining US forces in ROK next year.
This figure represents a 6 percent decrease over this year's budget. A
senior official at the Ministry of National Defense (MOND) said that the
ROK government's portion was finalized through a series of negotiations
with the US, which had originally asked the ROK side to cover at least
US$440 million. The official said that from the ROK's portion next year,
approximately US$80 million is slated towards the military construction
sector, expenses that will be spread over a two-year period. Thus, the
de facto share goes down to US$290 million the following year. The
breakdown of the US$333 million is as follows: US$163.84 million (W213
billion) for ROK employees; US$80 million for military construction;
US$40 million for defense reinforcement expenses for the United Nations
Command; US$56.384 for logistical support.
3. DPRK Grain Shortage
JoongAng Ilbo ("DPRK FOOD SHORTAGE WILL CONTINUE IN 1999," Seoul,
12/22/98) reported that in 1999, the DPRK is expected to be short 1.62
million tons of food needed to sufficiently feed its population. The
Rural Development Administration (RDA) announced on December 22 that the
total sum of grain production in the DPRK is predicted to increase by 11
percent from 3.49 million tons in 1997 to 3.89 million tons. The
quantity of rice is predicted to be 1.46 million tons and that of corn to
be 1.95 million tons. However, these figures do not reach the 5.51
million tons that the DPRK needs. A source at the RDA predicted that
further food shortages in the DPRK would occur even though the DPRK
received one million tons of food from foreign countries. Dr. Kim Sung-
pil of the RDA said, "The scale of grain production in the DPRK is
expected to increase compared to that of 1997 due to fewer natural
disasters. But, the quantity of grain production is still low stemming
from shortages of fertilizer and agricultural chemicals."
4. ROK Submarine Project
Chosun Ilbo ("MOND TO OPEN SUB PROJECT," Seoul, 12/22/98) reported that
the ROK Ministry of National Defense (MOND) announced Tuesday that it
would open up its mid-sized submarine project to open bidding rather than
awarding an exclusive contract monopoly. Daewoo Heavy Industry has had
an exclusive contract with the ministry on design and production of the
navy's latest warship, but now Hyundai will be allowed to bid on the next
vessel to be commissioned. Following the ministry's decision on the 2
trillion won project, a full scale clash is expected between the two
giants, with Daewoo officials concerned that Hyundai will target price
rather than technology acquisition. They say that now Daewoo has
acquired enough technology to be able to design and build its own
submarines for export to Southeast Asia, and that the MOND decision will
only lead to investment redundancy. Hyundai countered a Daewoo claim
that it would have to spend 200 billion won on investment, that it is
able to build submarines on existing facilities with just a couple of
billion won spent on modifications, and that it could build models twice
the size of Daewoo's. The company added that so far Daewoo has built
nine submarines, but received no export orders.
5. ROK Economic Situation
Korea Times ("$40 BILLION TRADE SURPLUS ATTAINABLE," Seoul, 12/22/98)
reported that the ROK is expected to post a trade surplus of US$40
billion this year despite the sudden appreciation of the ROK won to the
1,100 range against the US dollar. However, the government is continuing
to monitor the situation carefully. According to Oh Young-kyo, assistant
Commerce, Industry, and Energy minister for trade policy, the government
can hardly intervene in the foreign exchange market, even though it
affects the trade balance. "The appreciation of the ROK won certainly
has the effect of reducing exports and encouraging imports, but the
market situation is such that other factors will have to be taken into
consideration," he said. Oh said that the role of the government is not
to artificially influence the foreign exchange market, but rather to
introduce policies that can stabilize the situation for greater
stability. "Policies designed to cut interest rates are one way the ROK
can prevent the inflow of hot money during this economic recession. But,
where foreign exchange is concerned, we really have no role," he
explained. Despite such optimism, general trading companies (GTC) said
in a meeting with Oh on Monday that immediate measures are needed to
counter the high value of the ROK won, resulting mainly from increased
foreign reserves.
1. US Sanctions on DPRK
The Pyongyang Korean Central Broadcasting Network carried a commentary
(Kim Ho-sam, "SANCTIONS MUST BE LIFTED URGENTLY," 12/19/98) which said
that US "hard-line conservatives" are refusing to lift sanctions unless
the DPRK changes its "so-called attitude." The commentary stated, "This
shows that the US hard-line conservatives persistently seek to maintain
sanctions against us and thus stifle our republic. It also shows that
the US hostile policy toward our republic has not changed." It added,
"Needless to say, the US hostile policy toward the republic is an anti-
historical policy that totally contradicts the basic trend of the current
era. Despite the persistent US sanctions, according to their own
beliefs, numerous countries and even advanced capitalist countries, while
trusting our self-reliant national economy, propose economic
collaboration and joint ventures and are carrying out economic
collaboration and joint ventures in reality." It noted, "Voices calling
for promoting economic ties with us and lifting the unjust sanctions are
heard even in the United States." It cited former US ambassador to the
ROK Donald Gregg as saying that the US has not fulfilled its promise
under the Agreed Framework to lift sanctions. The article charged the US
with using false accusations of an underground nuclear facility and a
missile threat as an excuse to provoke a new war on the Korean peninsula.
It stated, "Even though 100 and 1,000 years pass, there will be no change
in our attitude. It is the United States that should show change in
attitude." It argued that the 1994 DPRK-US Agreed Framework "is a legal
document which the United States signed and which both the DPRK and the
United States should implement.... The United States should not hope for
someone's change in attitude but be faithful in implementing the DPRK-US
agreed framework which the United States of America has signed and
immediately lift all sanctions against us. Only then can the United
States receive international trust. If it takes high-handed measures,
calling for a change in attitude and so on, it will all the more face
disgrace before the international community and become isolated and
rejected."
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