America’s Korea Watchers Assess Developments
on the Korean Peninsula
Peter M. Beck
April 11, 2002
A recent survey of Korea watchers in the United
States finds broad support for engaging North Korea and an almost equally
strong disapproval of the Bush Administration’s approach to North Korea. Dong-a
Ilbo, one of Korea’s largest daily newspapers with a circulation of
approximately two million, conducted a survey of America’s Korea watchers from
March 18 to March 29 on a full range of issues. A total of 72 individuals from America’s leading universities,
think thanks, the U.S. government, international financial institutions, and
private sector participated in the survey.
The survey is believed to be the largest of its kind ever
conducted. The complete results of the
survey follow this summary.
Two-thirds of the 24 questions focused on
North-South Korean issues and the role of the United States on the Korean
Peninsula. A dramatic 86.1% of
respondents expressed support for the Kim Administration’s Sunshine Policy
toward North Korea. The most common
reason for support cited was the belief that the Sunshine Policy is the most
cost-effective and least risky way to deal with North Korea. Among the policy’s achievements, Sunshine
has reduced tensions on the Peninsula and created the conditions which made the
historic 2000 North-South Summit possible.
Nevertheless, respondents expressed some areas of concern. The North’s failure to change its basic
attitude toward South Korea was seen as the policy’s greatest short-coming,
with the limited progress in implementing cooperation projects cited as the
second most significant failing. More
significantly, nearly six in ten respondents disapprove of South Korean
government subsidies for the Kumgang-san tours because the tours are not
economically viable and they do not contribute to broader exchanges between the
two Koreas. Three-quarters of respondents believe Korea’s next president should
continue to engage North Korea, but only 9.7 percent thought the current policy
should continue to be pursued. Nearly
two-thirds thought the next administration should make some policy
adjustments. 20.8 percent felt that a
new North Korea policy based on strict reciprocity should be introduced.
America’s Korea watchers were highly critical of the
Bush Administration’s handling of North Korea policy. An overwhelming 72.2 percent of respondents disapprove of the
Bush Administration’s policy toward North Korea. Slightly more than two-thirds object to the Bush Administration’s
designation of North Korea as a charter member of the “Axis of Evil” for a
variety of reasons, including that the designation undermines the consensus
forged with South Korea in dealing with North Korea and will push North Korea
away from talking to the South and the United States. Korea watchers also think that North Korea’s situation is
different from Iran and Iraq’s. The
21.7 percent who approved of the designation thought that the Bush
Administration had correctly identified the nature of the North Korean
regime. Slightly more than two-thirds
of respondents felt that the United States should continue to abide by the 1994
Geneva Agreed Framework. Slightly more
than 20 percent thought the agreement should be re-negotiated. No respondent thought the United States
should walk away from the agreement. The Bush Administration’s hard-line
approach toward North Korea was cited as the biggest reason for the stall in
North Korea’s relations with the United States and South Korea, but when asked
what was the key to improving relations between the United States and North
Korea, a slight plurality of 33 percent thought that above all else, North
Korea should return to the negotiating table without preconditions.
On economic issues, Korea watchers were generally
supportive of President Kim’s reform efforts, but also expressed some
concern. A full 90.3 percent felt that
significant economic reforms had been implemented, but an almost equally large
number believe that much remains to be done.
Macroeconomic stabilization was sited as the Kim Administration’s
greatest achievement; labor and public sector reform received the lowest
marks. The administration’s proactive
stance toward foreign direct investment was also viewed as a significant
achievement, but FDI levels would be even higher were it not for disagreements
in asset valuations and the lack of transparency at many chaebol. A slight plurality
(38.9 percent) thought that President Kim should focus on the Korean economy
during the remainder of his term of office rather than improving North-South
relations (11.1 percent). Similarly,
one-third of respondents thought that the economy would be the biggest factor
in the presidential election (along with personality politics) rather than the
state of North-South relations (4.2 percent).
Finally, two-thirds of Korea watchers are concerned
about the rise of anti-Americanism in South Korea, with the largest source of
the rise (32.6 percent) attributed to the Bush Administration’s hard-line
stance toward North Korea. 20.4 percent
thought that U.S. trade pressure and protectionist policies were primarily to
blame. An equal number pointed to the
size and shape of America’s military footprint in Korea. The best way to remedy this situation is for
Americans to have a better understanding of the situation on the Korean
peninsula, according to a plurality (41.7 percent) of respondents.
Survey notes:
Of the 72 respondents, 32 represented universities, 24 think tanks, 6
current/former U.S. government, 5 international financial institutions and 5
consultants/private sector. The
respondents included Charles Armstrong, Ralph Cossa, Stephen Costello, Bruce
Cumings, Peter Hayes, Chalmers Johnson, Lawrence Krause, Larry Niksch, Marcus
Noland, Robert Rich, Scott Snyder, David Steinberg, Richard Walker, and Larry
Wortzel. A number of participants did
not want their names used in the survey.
Figures do not always sum to 100 percent due to respondents who did not
mark an answer or marked more than one answer.
Questions asking for a ranked answer only show the results for the
top-ranked choice. The views expressed in the survey do not necessarily reflect
the views of individual survey participants or KEI.
Dong-a Ilbo Survey of
America’s Korea Watchers
1. Relations between the United States and North Korea as well as North-South relations have stalled. What are the major reasons for this? (please rank from 1 - 4, with 1 being most important reason)
A. North Korea’s refusal to hold talks with the
U.S. and South Korea. 31.9%
B. The Bush Administration’s hard-line approach
toward North Korea. 45.8%
C. South Korea’s Sunshine Policy has led the North to develop unreasonable
expectations. 5.6%
D. Despite many meetings, North Korea, South
Korea and the U.S. have failed to
develop mutual confidence. 16.7%
2. Do you approve or disapprove of the Bush Administration’s policy toward North Korea?
A. Fully
approve. 12.5%
B. Somewhat
approve. 11.1%
C. Neither
approve nor disapprove. 4.2%
D. Somewhat
disapprove. 30.5%
E.
Completely disapprove. 41.7%
3. Do you agree or disagree with President Bush’s designation of North Korea as part of an “axis of evil?”
A.
Completely agree. 13.9%
B. Somewhat
agree. 6.9%
C. Neither
agree nor disagree. 6.9%
D. Somewhat
disagree.
22.2%
E.
Completely disagree. 45.8%
4. If you answered A or B in Question 3, why do you agree with President Bush’s designation?
A. President Bush has correctly identified the
nature of the North Korean regime. 53.3%
South
Korea and the United States. 13.3%
C. President
Bush needed to have the Kim Dae-jung Administration clearly understand
U.S.
policy toward North Korea. 0%
D. All of
the above. 33.3%
5. If you answered D or E in
Question 3, why do you disagree with President Bush’s designation?
A. North
Korea’s situation is different from that of Iran and Iraq. 8.1%
B. Such a
hard-line posture will lead North Korea to close the door on talks with South
Korea
and the U.S.
10.2%
C. The
remarks undermine the consensus with South Korea on how to deal with North
Korea. 10.2%
D. All of
the above. 69.4%
6. Do you support or oppose President Kim’s Sunshine Policy?
A. Strongly
support.
37.5%
B. Somewhat
support. 48.6%
C. Neither
support nor oppose. 9.7%
D. Somewhat
oppose. 4.2%
E.
Strongly oppose. 0%
7. If you
answered A or B in Question 6, why do you support the Sunshine Policy?
A. The
policy has contributed to North-South reconciliation and promoted exchanges
between
the two Koreas. 12.9%
B. The
policy has helped build confidence between the two Koreas. 6.5%
C. In long
run, Sunshine Policy is the most cost-effective approach with the least amount
of
risk.
25.8%
D. All of the above. 51.6%
8. If you
answered D or E in Question 6, why do you oppose the Sunshine Policy?
A. The
policy allows North Korea to unilaterally set the tone of North-South
relations. 0%
B. The
policy has led North Korea to develop unreasonable expectations. 0%
C. The
policy has failed to produce a consensus on how to deal with North Korea. 0%
D. President
Kim has only used the Sunshine Policy for domestic political purposes. 0%
E. All of
the above. 33.3%
F. None of the above.
66.6%
9. What have been the greatest accomplishments of the Sunshine Policy? (rank from 1 to 5 with one being the greatest accomplishment)
A. Tension
reductions on the Korean Peninsula. 48.6%
B. The 2000
North-South Summit. 40.3%
C. Increased
cultural exchanges. 1.4%
D. Family
reunions.
4.2%
E.
The Mt. Kumgang tours. 1.4%
10. What have been the greatest short-comings of the Sunshine Policy? (rank from 1 to 5 with one being the greatest
short-coming)
A. The lack of a
return visit to Seoul by Chairman Kim Jong-il. 15.3%
B. The limited progress in implementing the
cooperation projects contained in the 2000
Summit Joint Declaration. 20.8%
C. A North-South peace treaty has not been
signed. 5.6%
D. North-South dialogue has not been
institutionalized. 19.4%
E. North Korea’s failure to change its basic
attitude toward South Korea. 34.7%
11. The South Korean government is now
subsidizing Hyundai’s Kumgang-san tours due to the venture’s financial
difficulties. Do you approve or disapprove of the government’s involvement?
A. I
approve. 38.9%
B. I
disapprove. 59.7%
12. If you answered A in Question 11, why do you
support the government’s involvement?
A. The tours
are necessary not only to maintain the Sunshine Policy but also to promote
exchanges
between the two Koreas. 17.9%
B.
Maintaining programs like the Kumgang-san tours will ultimately be
helpful for the
unification
of the two Koreas. 32.1%
C. The tours give South Koreans a better understanding of the North.
3.6%
D. All of
the above. 46.4%
13. If you answered B in Question 11, why do you
oppose the government’s involvement?
A. Giving
cash to North Korea will only help it to increase its military capabilities. 4.6%
B. The tours do not contribute
to broader exchanges between the two Koreas. 25.6%
C. North
Korea will halt the tours when there is a change of government in South Korea. 0%
D. The tours
are not economically viable. 27.9%
E. All of the above. 30.2%
14. What stance should South Korea’s next
administration take toward North Korea?
A. Continue
the current policy. 9.7%
B. Make
some adjustments while maintaining the basic principle of engagement. 65.3%
C. Pursue a
new approach toward North Korea based on reciprocity. 20.8%
D. Cease all
efforts to engage North Korea. 1.4%
15. What is your assessment of the Geneva Agreed
Framework?
A. The U.S.
should continue to abide by the framework. 69.4%
B. The U.S.
should renegotiate the framework. 22.2%
C. The U.S.
should abandon the framework and pursue a “package deal.” 0%
D. The U.S.
should abandon the framework and not try to reach a new agreement. 0%
16. What should be the top priority for
improving relations between North Korea and the U.S.? (rank from 1 to 4 with 1
being the top priority)
A. The Bush
Administration should abandon its hard-line approach toward North Korea.
25.0%
B. The Bush
Administration should remove North Korea from the list of the countries
supporting terrorism.
18.1%
C. North Korea must give up the development and
export of weapons of mass
destruction. 13.9%
D. North
Korea should return to the negotiating table without any preconditions. 33.3%
17. What is your assessment of the economic
reforms taken by the Kim Administration since the Asian Economic Crisis of
1997?
A. South Korea has made great progress in reforming
its economy. 12.5%
B. There has
been some reform, but much more needs to be done. 77.8%
C. There
have not been any significant reforms. 5.5%
D. Economic
reforms have actually made the situation worse than it was in 1997. 1.4%
18. Looking back at the Kim Administration’s
economic policies, what do you think has been the greatest accomplishments and
failures? (rank from 1 to 6 with 1 being the greatest accomplishment and 6
being the greatest failure)
A. Macroeconomic stabilization. 55.5%
B. Foreign Direct Investment policy. 12.5%
C. Corporate reform. 4.2%
D. Financial reform. 2.8%
E. Labor reform.
1.4%
F. Public sector reform. 1.4%
19. A number of foreign direct investment
proposals by American firms have either fallen through or been slow to
materialize. How would you rank (from 1
to 5) the following factors, with 1 being the most important problem?
A. Lack of transparency.
29.2%
B. Labor issues.
12.5%
C. Government red tape.
5.5%
D. Debt relief. 1.4%
E. Asset valuation disagreements. 33.3%
20. What do you think President Kim should focus
on during his remaining time in office? (rank from 1 to 5 with 1 being the
highest priority)
A. Improving
North-South relations. 11.1%
B. Improving
the economy. 38.9%
C. Promoting
diplomatic relations, particularly with the U.S. and Japan.
4.2%
D. Holding
impartial local and presidential elections. 31.9%
E.
Successfully hosting the World Cup and Asian Games. 7.0%
21. Koreans will elect their next president in
December. How would rank (from 1 to 4)
the salience of the following factors, with 1 being most salient?
A. North-South relations.
4.2%
B. The economy. 33.3%
C. Personality politics. 33.3%
D.
Regionalism. 19.4%
22. Are you concerned about the potential rise
of anti-Americanism in South Korea?
Yes. 68.0%
No. 29.2%
23. If your answer to the previous question was
yes, what are the causes of anti-Americanism? (rank from 1 to 5, with 1 being
most serious)
A. The Bush Administration’s hard-line stance
toward North Korea. 32.6%
B. U.S. trade pressure and protectionist
measures. 20.4%
C. The 2002 Winter Olympics Short Track
controversy involving South Korean and US.
skaters. 4.1%
D. The location of U.S. military bases in
highly populated areas. 20.4%
E. Incidents involving the U.S. military or
individual U.S. soldiers. 8.2%
24. What should be the top priority for
improving relations between South Korea and the U.S.? (rank from 1 to 4, with 1
being the top priority)
A. Americans
need to better understand the situation on the Korean Peninsula. 41.7%
B. Koreans
need to better understand President Bush’s policy toward North Korea and
how
much the U.S. has changed since September 11. 8.3%
C. The leaders of both countries need to exchange
views more frequently and intensively.
26.4%
D. Koreans
should try to be less nationalistic and emotional. 11.1%