October 24, 2000

New Analysis: Ripples of Albright Visit Felt By American Allies in Area

By HOWARD W. FRENCH

EOUL, South Korea, Oct. 24 - When Madeleine K. Albright arrives here on 
Wednesday to brief her South Korean and Japanese counterparts on her 
groundbreaking visit to North Korea, behind the smiles and obligatory 
congratulations, Washington's closest Asian allies will also have some 
serious questions.

Already, there have been signs of concern in both South Korea and Japan 
that Washington's sudden breakthrough with Pyongyang could upset South 
Korea's own diplomacy with the North, and render even more remote the 
possibility that Japan will obtain satisfaction regarding its 
longstanding grievances toward the country.

The public enthusiasm and private concern about Dr. Albright's trip, and 
about a possible visit soon by President Clinton, are a vivid 
illustration of the awkward geometry of diplomacy, even among close 
allies, in northeast Asia.

Each of the partners is eager for North Korea to emerge from its cocoon 
and cease to be a threat to regional stability. But for reasons of 
domestic politics and priorities, the United States, South Korea and 
Japan might like to see events unfold in a slightly different sequence.

It is a measure of their concern for sequencing and above all, for 
avoiding major surprises among them, that both present- and former-
officials in both Japan and South Korea privately warn again repetition 
of the so-called "Nixon shock" they received when Washington suddenly 
established diplomatic relations with Beijing nearly 30 years ago.

For South Korea, which has been by far the most ethusiastic about 
engagement with the North since President Kim Dae Jung took office here 
more than two years ago, talk of a quickly arranged visit by Mr. Clinton 
comes at a time when Pyongyang has frozen substantive cooperation with 
Seoul on a series of recent agreements.

On Monday, Mr. Kim's office issued a statement saying that "inter-Korean 
and North Korea-U.S. relations are mutually complementary and an 
improvement in one has the effect of boosting the other."

But ironically, given that Mr. Kim pushed hard to bring the two longtime 
enemies into closer contact, the dramatic boost in North Korea's ties 
with Washington is reviving fears in foreign policy circles here of 
seeing inter-Korean relations relegated to the background. Indeed, for 
years before their historic summit meeting in June, North Korea treated 
South Korean governments as non-entities and insisted on direct 
negotiations with Washington.

The scant movement by North Korea on issues like regular visits between 
families separated by the border, military and economic cooperation, and 
the scheduling of a return visit here by the North Korean president, Kim 
Jong Il, meanwhile, has become a political embarrassment for the South 
Korean president. And many here fear that North Korea's success in 
engaging with Washington at the highest levels will only make things 
worse.

"There is that concern among people, because that is the pattern that 
Pyongyang has been following through the years," said Han Seung Joo, a 
former South Korean foreign minister. "Even now, North Korea is not 
implementing on the promises already made, such as on issues like family 
reunification, economic cooperation, railroad development and on other 
things. Of course there has been no progress at all on military issues."

Japan, for its part, already feels left out of the diplomatic process, 
with almost daily newspaper editorials questioning how and why the 
Government of prime minister Yoshiro Mori has allowed both Seoul and 
Washington to achieve dramatic breakthroughs in their relations with 
North Korea, with no corresponding advance by Tokyo.

Washington's focus on missile and nuclear weapons control issues, and on 
certifying that Pyongyang no longer supports international terrorism, is 
sure to hearten the Japanese. But Japanese diplomats and politicians are 
worried that other issues, like the mysterious and unresolved alleged 
abduction of 10 or more Japanese by North Korea two decades ago will 
fall by the wayside as Pyongyang makes large strides in relations with 
Washington.

Japan's diplomacy was thrown into further disarray last week after press 
accounts of a proposal reportedly made by Mr. Mori several years ago for 
North Korea to allow Japan to pretend to find its missing nationals in a 
third country as a way of saving face for Pyongyang.

For years, Japan has made the return of its citizens a central demand in 
normalization talks with North Korea. Mr. Mori's reported association 
with a plan to fudge the issue of how they disappeared led today to 
angry calls within his own party for his resignation.

"The prime minister's gaffes risk the trust-based relationship with the 
people and damage the interests of the country. The best thing is that 
he steps down," said Yoshimi Watanabe, a representative in Japan's lower 
house of parliament from the ruling Liberal Democratic Party.

For all of the potential surface tension between Washington and its 
regional allies, though, many experts said that growing collaboration, 
not rivalry is increasingly likely as North Korea engages with other 
countries.

"North Korea cannot go forward with out major structural adjustment, and 
they cannot achieve that adjustment without major resources," said Peter 
Hayes, co-executive director of the Nautilus Institute, a non-
governmental aid organization active in North Korea. "It follows that 
the only place these resources can come from is Japan. Japan cannot deal 
directly with Pyongyang, because of Japanese mistrust of all things 
Korean, and especially North Korean, so there must be an intermediary, 
the World Bank."

"But the World Bank cannot do anything unless Washington takes them off 
of the terrorist list, and that is what brings all the present focus 
back to Washington."


Copyright 2000 The New York Times Company