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friday, may 19, 2000
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I. United States

II. Republic of Korea III. Japan
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I. United States


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1. DPRK Energy Shortage

Reuters ("NORTH KOREA USING RICE HUSKS AS POWER SOURCE," Tokyo, 05/19/00) reported that Radiopress, a monitoring agency in Tokyo, quoted domestic DPRK radio as saying on Thursday that a farm near Pyongyang is using gases produced from rice husks, corn, and parts of trees to generate electricity. No details were given on how this was done, but the report said that all the necessary equipment had been designed by the farm's residents themselves.


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2. DPRK Refugees in PRC

The Associated Press (Christopher Torchia, "NORTH KOREANS IN CHINA LANGUISH," Seoul, 05/18/00) reported that Park Sang-bong, secretary-general of the ROK relief group Commission to Help North Korea Refugees, said that the issue of illegal DPRK immigrants in the PRC likely will not arise in June's ROK-DPRK summit talks. Park stated, "Kim Jong Il doesn't want to talk about this problem." Choi Ui-sul, an analyst at the state-funded Research Institute for National Unification in Seoul, argued, "If we push China very hard on this issue, the relationship would get worse." Jana Mason of the Washington-based U.S. Committee for Refugees stated, "China is violating its [UN Refugees] convention obligations." Courtland Robinson, a researcher at the Johns Hopkins School of Public Health in Baltimore, said that there are an estimated 50,000 to 150,000 DPRK refugees in the PRC, many of them in and around Tumen city. He added that the number of DPRK citizens crossing into the PRC rises at this time of year because food is scarcer than usual.


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3. US Religious Leader's DPRK Visit

The Associated Press ("U.S. REV. MEETS N. KOREAN OFFICIALS," Seoul, 05/19/00) reported that the DPRK's Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) said that the Reverend Franklin Graham, son of US evangelist Billy Graham, met on Friday with DPRK officials. KCNA said that Graham had a "warm" talk with Kim Yong-dae, a vice parliamentary speaker, and that Vice Foreign Minister Kim Kye-gwan sat in at the meeting. During the meeting, Graham recalled the "intimate ties" that existed between his father and the late DPRK President Kim Il-sung and pledged efforts to promote ties between the US and the DPRK. Graham arrived in the DPRK on Monday.


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4. ROK-DPRK Cultural Exchanges

The Associated Press ("S.KOREA SEEKS JOINT TEAM WITH NORTH," Seoul, 05/19/00) reported that Chung Mong-joon, head of the ROK Football Association, said he would like to visit the DPRK to discuss the possibility of the two Koreas fielding a joint soccer team for this year's Asia Cup competition, scheduled for Lebanon in October. The Asian Football Confederation overwhelmingly approved Chung's proposal. Chung said that if the two Koreas can field a single team for the Asian Cup, it would help them form another unified team for the 2002 World Cup.

The Associated Press ("N. KOREA TROUPE TO PERFORM IN SOUTH," Seoul, 05/17/00) reported that a 100- member DPRK boys' arts troupe will perform in the ROK this month to celebrate the June inter-Korean summit. The boys from Mankyongdae Children's Palace will give five performances featuring traditional Korean music and dances during their visit to Seoul on May 24-30. Yoon Sang-sup, an official from Pyonghwa Motors Company, an affiliate of the Reverend Sun Myung-moon's Unification Church which is organizing the trip, stated, "The performance will add significance to the summit."


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5. Anniversary of Kwangju Massacre

Reuters ("SOUTH KOREA'S PRESIDENT MARKS MASSACRE WITH UNITY CALL," Kwangju, 05/17/00) reported that ROK President Kim Dae-jung on Thursday marked the 20th anniversary of the Kwangju pro-democracy uprising by calling on ROK citizens to end regional differences. Kim stated, "We must accomplish grand unity among all the Korean people so that the South and North can coexist in peace and cooperate with each other. We must make efforts to turn the upcoming summit into a great watershed that will turn the flow of history of the Korean people toward trust and reconciliation." He added, "Citizens who were labeled rioters are now being held up all around the world as protesters for democracy." Demonstrators in Kwangju on Wednesday distributed leaflets blaming the US for not stopping the crackdown.


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6. Korean War Massacre

Reuters ("US ARMY CAUTIONS ON KOREA MASSACRE PROBE," Washington, 05/16/00) reported that the US Army on Tuesday warned against speculation on the outcome of its ongoing investigation into whether US soldiers intentionally fired on civilians in No Gun Ri in July 1950. The Army said in a statement, "No such conclusions, or any other conclusions, have been reached within the Department of Defense." It added, "The investigation is still ongoing, and speculation as to the eventual results is irresponsible. We are conducting a comprehensive review of the facts, and it is premature to discuss our findings until the review is complete."


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7. Japanese Elections

The Associated Press (Scott Stoddard, "JAPAN'S PREMIER SETS ELECTION DATE," Tokyo, 05/18/00 reported that Japanese Prime Minister Yoshiro Mori on Thursday announced that general elections would be held on June 25. Analysts said that Mori's ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) may suffer in the polls following his remark on Monday that Japan was "a divine nation centering on the emperor." Minoru Tada, a visiting professor of political science at Nishogakusha University, stated, "This is a big minus for the LDP. They've lost whatever sympathy vote they would have gotten from Obuchi's death." Shigetaro Iizuka, a political science professor at Nihon University, stated, "The Japanese people have graduated from the time when they worshipped the emperor. Mori's ideas don't fit with modern Japanese."


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8. Japanese Attendance at Taiwan Inauguration

The Associated Press ("CHINA URGES FOREIGN GOVERNMENTS TO STAY AWAY FROM TAIWAN INAUGURATION," Beijing, 05/18/00) reported that the PRC on Thursday demanded that Japan stop Tokyo's Governor Shintaro Ishihara and other Japanese politicians from attending the inauguration of Taiwan's president-elect Chen Shui-bian. PRC Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Zhang Qiyue said that Japan should "honor its commitments made to the Chinese side on the question of Taiwan and stop Shintaro and other political figures in Japan from doing something that interferes in China's internal affairs and undermines China-Japanese relations." She added, "We are strongly opposed to any official relations between Taiwan and any foreign countries and to exchanges of any governmental nature."


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9. Taiwan Presidential Inauguration

The Associated Press (William Foreman, "CHEN SPEECH LIKELY WILL SEND SIGNAL," Taipei, 05/19/00) and the Wall Street Journal (Russell Flannery, "CHEN'S INAUGURATION SPEECH SEEN AS GAUGE FOR CHINA- TAIWAN TIES," Taipei, 05/19/00) reported that analysts said that Taiwan President-elect Chen Shui-bian's inauguration speech on Saturday could be one of his best chances of calming the PRC. Julian Kuo, a Chen adviser and political science professor at Taipei's Soochow University, said, "I don't think the speech will give Beijing an excuse to attack, but it also won't make Beijing feel completely satisfied." Laura D'Andrea Tyson, a business professor at the University of California at Berkeley who is leading the US delegation attending Chen's inauguration, stated, "We are really impressed at your approach of thinking through this issue and talking to many people and treating it as a major issue of establishing trust and dialogue." On Friday, an editorial in the Chinese Communist Party's newspaper, the People's Daily, warned, "Taiwan is a part of China and Taiwan has only one future reunification with the mainland."

The New York Times (Mark Landler, "TAIWAN LEADER SAID TO PLAN NO SHIFTS THAT WOULD ANTAGONIZE BEIJING," Taipei, 05/19/00) reported that incoming Taiwan foreign minister Tien Hung-mao said that President-elect Chen Shui-bian would make no sudden shifts in Taiwan's policy toward the PRC in his inaugural speech on Saturday. Tien stated, "Chen Shui-bian will not give China any easy excuse to retaliate with force. It's going to be a very conciliatory kind of speech." He added, however, "On the fundamental principles that our country stands for, he will not make a concession. He cannot. He's not mandated to make a concession." Tien stated, "We hope there will be enough of a way out for China to say: 'At least Chen Shui-bian did not say that. He met our minimum criteria for continuing.'" Tien also denied a recent report that the new administration had requested that the US play a more active role in mediating between Taiwan and the PRC. He added that frequent unofficial discussions about cross-strait policy held in the US have "been happening for many years," and that as foreign minister he would push for more such exchanges. [Ed. note: This article was included in the US Department of Defense's Early Bird news service for May 19.]


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10. New Taiwan Vice President

The New York Times (Mark Landler, "SHE'S FOND OF INDEPENDENCE FOR HERSELF AND TAIWAN TOO," Taipei, 05/19/00) reported that Taiwan Vice President-elect Annette Lu defended her earlier description of the PRC and Taiwan as "distant relatives and close neighbors." Lu stated, "I did not do anything wrong, I did not say anything wrong. For China, being such a big nation, to choose a woman to be the target! All of a sudden, I became famous. I don't deserve that much." Lu, who spent 5 1/2 years in prison on the charge of advocating Taiwanese independence, said that the PRC "accused me of what the KMT (Kuomintang) accused me of 20 years ago. Twenty years later, the same party who suppressed me is ready to have its regime transferred to me on behalf of the freedom fighters." She added, "At the beginning of the campaign, people expected me to be active in foreign affairs and mainland affairs. It all depends on where President Chen would like me to help." Andrew Yang, head of the Chinese Council of Advanced Policy Studies, a research institute in Taipei, said that Lu is "a loose cannon. She doesn't share the same political beliefs as Chen Shui-bian. She sees herself as the guardian of the Taiwanese independence movement." Shiow-Jen Chang, a member of the Taiwan Parliament, stated, "Every year she proposed a different way to enter the U.N. She doesn't care how people will react. She says and does exactly what she believes."


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11. PRC Ascension to WTO

Reuters (Adrian Croft, "EU WTO DEAL WITH CHINA WELCOMED IN EUROPE," Brussels, 05/19/00) reported that on Friday European Union (EU) Trade Commissioner Pascal Lamy and PRC Trade Minister Shi Guangsheng signed a trade agreement in Beijing that removes the last major barrier to the PRC joining the World Trade Organization (WTO). Dirk Hudig, secretary general of the EU's main business lobby UNICE, stated, "The fact that they have come to an agreement is good news. It is a major step forward for integrating China in the world's economic order." Hanns Glatz, board delegate for European affairs at DaimlerChrysler AG, said that the agreement should also make it easier to win US congressional approval for permanent normal trade relations (PNTR) status in a vote next week. Glatz stated, "Congress will understand that if they do not grant PNTR to China, that European exporters will have a better status than the Americans."


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12. US Trade Bill on PRC

The Associated Press (Tom Raum, "CHINA TRADE BACKERS WIN CONVERTS," Washington, 05/19/00) and Reuters (Adam Entous, "CHINA TRADE PACT SEEN PASSING CONGRESS," Washington, 05/19/00) reported that US Republican congressional leaders said on Friday that they would fold into a single package legislation granting permanent normal trade relations (PNTR) to the PRC along with a human rights monitoring plan. The plan would set up a commission to review PRC policies and possibly recommend sanctions consistent with World Trade Organization (WTO) rules, such as a cessation of US Export-Import Bank and US Overseas Private Investment Corporation support to the PRC. The bill would also urge the WTO to admit Taiwan immediately after the PRC. Republican leaders said that there would be a single vote on the package on Wednesday. California Representative David Dreier stated, "I am very confident that with this package that we've now put together and the agreement that was just struck this morning between China and the European Union, that we will be able to have the votes necessary for a strong victory." According to business lobbyists, the trade bill has the support of at least 207 lawmakers, 11 votes short of passage


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13. Russian Missile Sales to PRC

The Washington Times (Bill Gertz, "RUSSIA SENDS CRUISE MISSILES TO CHINA FOR NEW WARSHIPS," 05/19/00) reported that US Defense Department officials said on Thursday that Russia recently delivered the first shipment of 24 SSN-22 anti-ship supersonic cruise missiles to the PRC for the Sovremenny-class destroyer. The officials said that a second delivery of the missiles is expected in the next several months. The missile has a range of between 80 and 85 miles. US Navy officials said that the deployment of the missiles is the most significant recent weapons development by the People's Liberation Army (PLA) naval forces. One unnamed official stated, "The Sovremenny arrival is obviously the big issue that really did change the capability of the surface force." US Representative Dana Rohrabacher, California Republican, stated, "The Chinese communists now have the ability to sink American aircraft carriers and kill thousands of Americans." A bill sponsored by Rohrabacher passed the House International Relations Committee two weeks ago that would block any US debt relief for the Russian government if future missile sales are not stopped. Richard Fisher, a specialist on the Chinese military with the Jamestown Foundation, said that Taiwan "has no defensive system that can take out this missile besides a pre-emptive attack on the destroyer itself, which increases instability on the Taiwan Strait." [Ed. note: This article was one of the top stories in the US Department of Defense's Early Bird news service for May 19.]


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14. PRC-Russian Missile Defense Talks

The Associated Press ("RUSSIAN, CHINESE EXPERTS END ANTI-BALLISTIC MISSILE TALKS," Moscow, 05/19/00) reported that the Russian Foreign Ministry said in a statement that experts from Russia and the PRC ended four days of talks on Friday about US proposals to amend the Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) treaty. The statement said that the experts "exchanged opinions on various aspects of the situation surrounding the ABM treaty in view of U.S plans to create a national ABM defense system banned by the treaty." The two sides affirmed their opposition to US desires to amend the treaty.


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15. Effects of US Missile Defense

The Los Angeles Times (Bob Drogin and Tyler Marshall, "MISSILE SHIELD ANALYSIS WARNS OF ARMS BUILDUP," Washington, 05/19/00, 1) reported that an unnamed US intelligence official said on Thursday that a new National Intelligence Estimate warned that construction of a national missile defense system could lead to a new arms race. A supplement to the report will also note that the threat of attack from the DPRK has eased since last fall, when the DPRK effectively froze its ballistic-missile testing program in response to US overtures. The official stated, "We can tell the Russians that [the missile defense] won't affect the viability of their deterrent force. I don't know how we can say that to the Chinese with a straight face." The Central Intelligence Agency believes that if the system were built, the PRC would install multiple independent nuclear warheads on its missiles for the first time, and build several dozen mobile truck-based DF-31 missiles to create a more survivable force. It also is likely to add such countermeasures as booster fragmentation, low-power jammers, chaff and simple decoys to confuse or evade US interceptors. The intelligence official said that Russia and the PRC both would also increase proliferation, including "selling countermeasures for sure" to such nations as the DPRK, Iran, Iraq and Syria. The official added that a buildup of the PRC's nuclear forces would lead to subsequent buildups in India and Pakistan. Former US National Security Advisor Brent Scowcroft called such a scenario "plausible." Scowcroft stated, "We ought to think whether we want the Chinese to change their very minimalist strategy. I'm not sure what the answer is, but this is certainly one of the possible consequences that, in a sense, is more serious than the Russian reaction might be." However, John E. Peters, an arms control specialist at Rand Corporation, stated, "China has had a strategic capability for a long time relative to India, and India has hardly gone on a missile arms race to counter it." Michael O'Hanlin of the Brookings Institution argued that a nuclear arms buildup would be a lesser threat to the US than the PRC's potential willingness to develop and sell missile defense countermeasures to countries like the DPRK. [Ed. note: This article was the top story in the US Department of Defense's Early Bird news service for May 19.]


II. Republic of Korea


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1. Inter-Korean Summit

The Korea Herald (Kim Ji-ho, "TWO KOREAS REACH COMPLETE ACCORD ON SUMMIT DETAILS," Panmunjom, 05/19/00), Chosun Ilbo (Kim Min-bai, "PROCEDURES FOR SUMMIT TALKS AGREED," Seoul, 05/18/00) and Joongang Ilbo (Choi Hoon, "PREPARATORY SUMMIT TALKS CONCLUDED," Seoul, 05/18/00) reported that the two Koreas reached a full agreement on the agenda and procedures for the summit between their top leaders in June, a joint statement said. At the fifth and last round of summit preparatory talks held in Panmunjom, the two sides signed a 15-point agreement after compromising on the size of press corps, officials said. The agreement also included a broad summit agenda by combining the wording of both sides. "The two leaders will reconfirm the three principles of national unification as declared in the July 4 South-North Joint Communique (1972)," it said. The ROK had tried to exclude the principles - independence, peace and grand national unity - but accepted them due to the insistence of the DPRK. In return, the DPRK accepted many of the ROK's proposals, including the live telecast of the summit with ROK facilities as well as the use of a satellite communications system, Yang said. The agreement stipulates that ROK President Kim Dae-jung and DPRK leader Kim Jong-il will have a historic meeting and hold highest-level talks at least two to three times, or more if necessary. In addition to the 50-member press team, a 130- strong entourage will accompany President Kim, and the ROK delegation could visit Pyongyang either by air or land.


III. Japan


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1. Japanese-DPRK Talks

The Daily Yomiuri ("JAPAN, NORTH KOREA POSTPONE DISCUSSIONS," 05/18/2000) reported that a governmental source revealed on May 17 that Japan and the DPRK have agreed to postpone the 10th round of the normalization talks, which were slated for May 22. Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary Fukushiro Nukaga said that the talks were put on hold at the DPRK's request. Nukaga also said that the delay of the talks would also postpone the visit to Japan of a group of Japanese women married to DPRK men, slated for the first half of June. The report said that the talks are not expected to resume before late June because of the coming inter-Korean summit meeting, slated for June 12 to 14, and also because of the expected Japanese Diet election on June 25. The report also said that according to Nukaga, the DPRK did not clarify the reason for the postponement. Prime Minister Yoshiro Mori stated, "North Korea probably is busy preparing for dialogue with South Korea, among other matters. Japan has not changed its stance toward continuing the negotiations. (The postponement) will not have any negative effect." The report also quoted an official as saying, "Pyongyang may want time to consider the outcome of the North-South summit and the results of Japan's lower house election."


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2. DPRK-European Relations

The Nikkei Shimbun ("EUROPEAN NATIONS EXPAND DIALOGUE WITH DPRK," London, 05/14/2000) reported that the DPRK's diplomacy with European nations is becoming active. The report said that the British government already decided to dispatch English teachers to the DPRK and also to begin talks on British assistance to the DPRK in agricultural technology. The report added that following Italy's resumption of diplomatic relations with the DPRK, France and Spain will send their representatives to the DPRK.


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3. DPRK Participation in ARF

The Sankei Shimbun ("ARF AGREED ON DPRK MEMBERSHIP," Bangkok, 05/19/2000) reported that the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Regional Forum (ARF) high working-level meeting decided on May 18 to allow the DPRK to formally participate in ARF. A source said, "During the meeting, no one objected the DPRK's participation. We agreed, on principle, to accept the DPRK's participation." According to the report, the source also revealed that DPRK Foreign Minister Paek Jung-nam would participate in the ARF Ministerial Meeting slated for July 27 in Bangkok.


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4. Japanese-PRC Defense Exchange

The Asahi Shimbun ("JAPANESE EMBASSY IN BEIJING NOW HAS DEFENSE ATTACHES FROM ALL THREE FORCES," 05/14/2000) reported that the Japanese embassy in Beijing has stationed a defense attache from the Japanese Maritime Self-Defense Force (JMSDF). The report said that because of the addition of Captain Hiromasa Amano, the new defense attache, the embassy now has a defense attache from each of the three Self-Defense Forces. The report also said that in addition to these three defense attaches, a Defense Agency official has already been stationed at the embassy since last year. The report suggested that all these moves came out of concern among Japanese defense officials about the PRC's rising military power.


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5. Japanese Nuclear Policy

The Daily Yomiuri ("PANEL DRAFTS N-COUNTERMEASURES," 05/13/2000) reported that The Central Disaster Prevention Council, chaired by Prime Minister Yoshiro Mori, on May 12 compiled a revised version of countermeasures against nuclear disasters that oblige the nation's nuclear facility operators to report accidents to related offices, including central and local governments, within 15 minutes of such occurrences. The report said that the measures have been revised in the wake of the nation's first criticality accident at JCO Company's nuclear fuel- processing plant in Tokaimura, Ibaraki Prefecture in September 1999. The implementation of the revised measures will coincide with the enactment in June of the antinuclear disaster law, which was passed in December 1999, said the report. The report also said that the revised measures oblige nuclear facility operators to fax notification documents regarding nuclear accidents during which radiation levels equivalent to more than five microseiverts per hour are detected around the facilities to related offices, such as the prime minister's official residence, the Science and Technology Agency, related local governments, and police and fire-fighting organizations.


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6. Prime Minister's Controversial Statement

The Daily Yomiuri (Tadayuki Tamai, "MORI REMARKS DEAL HEAVY BLOW TO LEADERSHIP ROLE," 05/19/2000) reported that Prime Minister Yoshiro Mori's controversial statement made on May 15 that "Japan is divine nation" has severely damaged his leadership of the three-party ruling coalition. The government and the ruling coalition of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), New Komeito and Hoshuto (New Conservative Party) seem to believe that the latest controversy was put to rest when Mori apologized for his remark at a plenary session of the House of Councillors on May 17. Analysts said, however, that Mori's leadership would be weakened as the many controversial remarks he has made recently have provided opposition parties with ammunition with which to attack the government. Even LDP members have expressed concern about the impact of Mori's statement on the future course of politics. Acting LDP Secretary General Hidenao Nakagawa, who is also a member of the Mori faction in LDP, said to former Defense Agency Director General Hosei Norota, "We are sorry we have given you trouble, but we hope you will continue to support Prime Minister Mori." Norota, now chief secretary of the faction that was formerly headed by former Prime Minister Keizo Obuchi, replied, "We are willing to support him, but there are things one can and cannot do." The report added that the media pounced on Mori's statement immediately after it was made during Mori's speech at a league of pro-Shintoism Diet members on May 15, but that party officials were slow to react. The report quoted Chief Cabinet Secretary Mikio Aoki as saying, "I do not know the details of the remark."

The Daily Yomiuri ("MORI QUIT LEAGUE OF PRO-SHINTOISM DIET MEMBERS," 05/19/2000) reported that Prime Minister Yoshiro Mori quit a league of pro-Shintoism Diet members on May 17 in the wake of criticism over his remarks that the country is a "divine nation with the Emperor at its core." The report quoted Mori as stating, "I am considering suspending my membership in all leagues of Diet members to which I belong due to my position (as prime minister)."


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