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I. United States1. ROK-DPRK Summit The New York Times (Howard W. French, "BACK HOME FROM TALKS, PRESIDENT IN SEOUL SEES 'A NEW DAY'," Seoul, 6/15/00) reported that a senior ROK official said that the results of the ROK-DPRK summit were more than just ceremonial. He added, "But many points were worked on beforehand." The official said that a rough sequence of events had been outlined, and that many of the ideas emerged in draft form in six or more secret talks held before the summit meeting. The Russian Foreign Ministry strongly praised the outcome of the talks, but in an official statement said that the two Koreas "will have to do a great deal of difficult work to overcome the mutual prejudice and mistrust that had been accumulating for decades. Russia intends to make an active contribution to this process." Many experts said there were reasons to hope that the self-assured performance of Kim Jong-il during the summit would encourage further confidence building and moderation. Leon V. Sigal, a DPRK expert at the Social Science Research Council, said, "All this speaks of a lot of self- confidence which may mean they are ready to begin doing things a bit differently." The Washington Post (Doug Struck, "S. KOREANS SEE NORTH IN NEW LIGHT SUCCESS OF SUMMIT OBSCURES OLD ANIMUS," Seoul, 6/16/00) reported that an ROK official said that the summit changed the image of DPRK leader Kim Jong-il in the ROK. The official stated, "He really showed that he's not the evilish character living in a dark cave that we thought he was." ROK President Kim Dae-jung stated, "I told him that [he] must visit Seoul if we are to believe the relations between North and South will improve. I said, 'An old man has come to visit you, and a young man should return the courtesy.' Chairman Kim said yes." 2. Implementation of Summit Agreement The Associated Press (Paul Shin, "SOUTH KOREA ENDS PROPAGANDA," Seoul, 6/16/00) reported that the ROK on Friday ordered the suspension of all anti-DPRK propaganda broadcasts and promised swift action on agreements reached at their historic summit. ROK presidential spokesman Park Joon- young said that Kim Jong-il expressed a willingness to invite Pope John Paul II to visit the DPRK. ROK President Kim Dae-jung had suggested a papal visit to the DPRK to Pope John Paul II during his Rome visit in March. 3. ROK-DPRK Economic Cooperation Reuters ("S. KOREA EYEING ECONOMIC CONTACT WITH NORTH IN JULY," Seoul, 6/16/00) and The Wall Street Journal (Michael Schuman and Jane L. Lee, "SUCCESSFUL KOREAN SUMMIT BODES WELL FOR SOUTHERN FIRMS WEIGHING CHANCES," Seoul, 6/16/00) reported that the ROK plans to resume contacts between government officials on economic matters as a follow-up to the June 15 agreement. ROK President Kim Dae-jung said in his return speech that, "If we enter North Korea, lay down railways, connect electricity, build roads, ports, telecommunication links and industrial parks, then what was once South Korea's economy will become the economy of the Korean peninsula." Bang Young-chol, a 31-year-old DPRK defector, and another defector opened a new firm this week called Pyongyang Consulting to assist ROK firms seeking to invest in the DPRK, and he says his phone has not stopped ringing. The Associated Press (Paul Shin, "SOUTH KOREA ENDS PROPAGANDA ," Seoul, 6/16/00) and Dow Jones ("KOREA FIN MIN:N-S KOREA GOVT MTG IN JULY POSSIBLE-YONHAP," Seoul, 6/16/00) reported that ROK Finance Minister Lee Hun-jai said that the ROK and DPRK need to complete legal mechanisms such as a dual taxation avoidance pact to promote economic cooperation. He also said the ROK and DPRK were expected to hold Cabinet-level talks in July to follow up on the summit agreement. 4. Reunion of Separated Families The Associated Press (Jean H. Lee, "NORTH, S. KOREA RELATIVES SEEK TO MEET," Seoul, 6/16/00) reported that Red Cross officials said that since DPRK President Kim Jong-il and ROK President Kim Dae-jung agreed to begin allowing reunions starting on August 15, more than 2,000 people have applied for reunions, bringing the total to 148,000. In 55 years, the only official meeting of separated families occurred in 1985 when 50 DPRK citizens traveled to Seoul and 50 from the ROK went to the DPRK for a four-day visit. 5. ROK-DPRK Sports Exchanges The New York Times (Jere Longman, "KOREAS PLAN FOR OLYMPICS," 6/15/00) reported that Kim Un-yong, a member of the International Olympic Committee (IOC) and a National Assembly member from the ROK, proposed the possibility of the ROK and DPRK marching together at the opening ceremonies of the 2000 Summer Olympics in Sydney, Australia, to Juan Antonio Samaranch, president of the IOC. They would field separate teams for competition, but they are being encouraged to send a joint team to the 2001 world table tennis championships in Japan. Chang Ung, IOC. delegate from the DPRK, said, "I am expecting the joint entrance of the South and North Korean teams at the Sydney Olympics." Talks have begun on the possibility of the DPRK playing host to some matches in the 2002 men's World Cup, scheduled to be held in Japan and the ROK. 6. US Policy toward DPRK The Washington Post (Steven Mufson, "U.S. LAUDS KOREAN TALKS, SAYS MORE WORK AHEAD," 6/16/00, P. A25) reported that US President Bill Clinton's administration moved to provide some immediate and tangible support for the Korean reconciliation process, including that it would finish the paperwork to ease sanctions and that the US would provide an additional 50,000 tons of wheat to the World Food Program's emergency feeding effort in the DPRK. The US expects to finish this month providing 400,000 metric tons of food shipments through the program since last July, which the US State Department said was not linked to the summit. Donald Gregg, president of the Korea Society and former US ambassador to the ROK, stated, "We should lift sanctions just as soon as we can. We have dragged our feet." US Senator Joseph R. Biden Jr, ranking Democrat on the Foreign Relations Committee, said, "Obviously much work remains to be done, especially in the security realm, where North Korea's irresponsible proliferation of ballistic missile technology poses a threat not only to South Korea, but also to others." The Associated Press (Deb Riechmann, "CLINTON TO BE BRIEFED ON KOREAS," New York, 6/16/00) reported that US President Clinton met with ROK national security adviser Hwang Won-tak in New York to get a briefing on the inter-Korean summit. A US White House spokesman said that ROK President Kim Dae-jung called Clinton on Thursday and said he was "very well received" by the DPRK and was "encouraged by the substance of their talks." 7. US Views of Summit The Office of International Information Programs, U.S. Department of State ("STATE DEPARTMENT NOON BRIEFING, JUNE 15, 2000," 6/15/00; "SECRETARY OF STATE ALBRIGHT HAILS KOREAN SUMMIT," 6/16/00) reported that US Department of State spokesman Richard Boucher praised the ROK-DPRK summit. Boucher said that ROK President Kim Dae-jung's "support for the US-North Korea dialogue, for Japan-North Korea dialogue and dialogue between Pyongyang and other nations has also opened the door for this historic step. And we would say that we also welcome the positive steps that Kim Chong-il has taken to bring North Korea out of its isolation." He added that post-inter-Korean summit talks between the US and the ROK have begun but are so far superficial. He reported US Secretary of State Albright as saying, "We hope that the good beginning achieved in Pyongyang and the continued dialogue between South and North Korea will build on the agreements reached today and lead to a fundamental reduction of tensions and a peaceful and prosperous Korean Peninsula." The Office of International Information Programs, U.S. Department of State ("WHITE HOUSE REPORT, THURSDAY, JUNE 15, 2000," 6/15/00) reported that US President Bill Clinton praised the June 15 agreement. Clinton stated, "The historic summit between President Kim Dae Jung and Chairman Kim Jong Il marks an initial, hopeful step towards peace and reconciliation in the Korean Peninsula. I welcome the agreements the two leaders reached on humanitarian and economic cooperation, and on a future summit in Seoul, and hope that both sides will continue down this promising path." The New York Times (David E. Sanger, "PUZZLING OUT A SUMMIT: A RAY OF HOPE, AT LEAST," Washington, 6/15/00) reported that Robert Gallucci, who negotiated the 1994 Agreed Framework and is now the dean of Georgetown University's School of Foreign Service, said that the summit represents a change in DPRK diplomatic tactics. Gallucci stated, "Whether it is a strategic change, or whether this is truly a new North Korean approach to the world, it is simply too early to know. There is a lot of history here -- war, terrorism, nuclear ambitions, incidents at sea -- that suggests the need for a lot of caution." Highlighting US attempts to understand the inter-Korean summit for future policy, Nicholas Eberstadt, a Korea scholar at the American Enterprise Institute said, "Exactly what's going on is hard to read." 8. US Troops in ROK The Washington Times (David Sands, "U.S. DEFENSE CHANGES NOT EXPECTED IN ASIA," 6/16/00) reported that US officials said that the inter-Korean summit will have no short-term effect on US defense commitments in Asia or on security policy at home, but the thaw in relations would affect fundamental US assumptions. John Curtis Perry, an expert on Asian diplomacy at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, stated, "Aside from the United States, I don't know of a single major player in the region who would wholeheartedly welcome a reunification of Korea. Everybody has grown used to playing the two Koreas off one another. What do they have to gain from the emergence of a dynamic new power in the region?" While the PRC's short-term interests on the Korean Peninsula may dovetail with those of the US, Lee Jong-seok, a veteran DPRK watcher for a ROK government think tank, told the Far Eastern Economic Review last week that, "China is bent on shaping a longer-term strategic partnership against the United States in Asia." The US-based policy- analysis firm Stratfor reported that, "Russia is seeking to edge out China as the main supporter of North Korea, weakening Beijing's influence in East Asia and asserting its own." The Office of International Information Programs, U.S. Department of State ("PENTAGON SPOKESMAN'S REGULAR BRIEFING, JUNE 15," 6/15/00) reported that US Defense Department spokesman Ken Bacon said that the outcome of the ROK-DPRK summit will not lead to an immediate change in US troop deployment. Bacon stated, "ROK President Kim Dae-jung has told US Defense Secretary Cohen that even if there is unification in the future, he would like US troops to remain on the Korean peninsula because they are a stabilizing force. The U.S. troop presence in South Korea apparently was not discussed [at the summit]." Regarding the US 2005 first phase deadline for its National Missile Defense program, he said, "North Korea is not the only country we worry about. We worry about Iraq, we worry about Iran, and we worry about other countries that are working on long-range missiles or that already have chemical and biological weapons and would like to have ways to deliver them with long- range missiles." The Associated Press ("SOLDIER SENTENCED IN S. KOREA JAIL," Seoul, 6/16/00) reported that a ROK court sentenced US soldier Christopher K. McCarthy to eight years in prison Friday for beating 31-year-old Kim Sung-hi to death on February 19. McCarthy has told the court that he hit the woman because she refused to have sex with him after receiving money. Until all appeals are exhausted, McCarthy will remain under US military custody. 9. US Missile Defense The Office of International Information Programs, U.S. Department of State ("WHITE HOUSE DAILY BRIEFING, THURSDAY, JUNE 15, 2000," 6/16/00) reported that White House Deputy Press Secretary P.J. Crowley said that the inter-Korean summit would not affect the US missile defense (MD) program. Crowley stated, "Our determination to develop and potentially field an MD capability is based on an emerging missile threat that is not exclusive to North Korea. We will make our threat assessment based on actual capabilities and actions that North Korea takes. I would say that 50 years of tension in the Korean Peninsula doesn't evaporate based on one meeting." 10. PRC Views of Summit The Associated Press ("CHINA CONGRATULATES KOREAS," Beijing, 6/16/00) reported that the PRC Xinhua News Agency quoted PRC President Jiang Zemin as writing to DPRK President Kim Jong-il and saying, "China will continue its consistent stand of actively supporting North and South Korea in their efforts to achieve independent, peaceful unification through dialogue and negotiation." It also said that Jiang congratulated the DPRK and ROK in separate letters on June 15 on their summit and offered assistance to bring about unification. The New York Times (Elisabeth Rosenthal, "CHINA HOPES TO BENEFIT FROM KOREAN TALKS," Beijing, 6/15/00) reported that PRC Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhu Bangzao said that the PRC believes that the ROK-DPRK summit was of historic significance. Zhu stated, "It will make a valuable contribution to the maintenance of peace and stability on the Korean peninsula." David Shambaugh, director of the China Policy Program at George Washington University, said, "China's first goal is not to have an imploding North Korea at its border." Foreign policy experts added that PRC diplomacy might also have reset the geopolitical balance in Northeast Asia, diminishing the US role in particular. 11. Other Views of Summit Reuters ("ANAN HAILS VISION OF KOREAN LEADERS AT SUMMIT," United Nations, 6/15/00) reported that UN spokesman Fred Eckhard said that UN Secretary General Kofi Annan is convinced that the continuation of the dialogue between the two Koreas will have a beneficial impact on relations between them, as well as regional peace and security. Eckhard stated, "The secretary-general is of the view that the international community, including the United Nations, should support the constructive developments on the Korean peninsula and contribute to building trust and confidence there." Reuters ("COMMUNIST VIETNAM WELCOMES KOREA DIALOGUE," Hanoi, 6/15/00) reported that Vietnam Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Phan Thuy Thanh said that Vietnam supports the settlement of issues on the Korean peninsula by peaceful means through dialogue. She stated, "The summit between the Democratic People's Republic of Korea and the Republic of Korea is a new, active and very important step forward in relations between the two Korean sides." 12. Return of ROK Fishing Boat The Associate Press ("MISSING SOUTH KOREAN FISHING BOAT RETURNS FROM N KOREA," Seoul, 6/16/00) and Reuters ("SOUTH KOREA SAYS MISSING BOAT RETURNING FROM NORTH," Seoul, 6/16/00) reported that ROK military officials said Friday that a ROK fishing boat missing after crossing the sea border with the DPRK reappeared Friday and was on its way home. The Gyulsung-ho disappeared into DPRK waters in dense fog near Paekryong-do, the ROK's westernmost island in the Yellow Sea, on Thursday. They said it was not immediately known whether the boat was released by the DPRK after being seized. The ministry had no other details and it was not clear if DPRK vessels were escorting the fishing boat back to southern waters. 13. Korean War Massacre The Associated Press (Choe Sang-hun and Martha Mendoza, "DOCUMENT CLAIMS U.S. TROOPS KILLED CIVILIANS IN KOREAN WAR," 6/16/00) reported that a DPRK document, dated August 2, 1950, and translated by the US Army within a few weeks of its capture, used its description of the killing of ROK refugees at a tunnel near Yongdong, which is eight miles from No Gun Ri, to whip up sentiment against US forces. The description was similar to that of events that may have occurred at No Gun Ri. The document was obtained by The Associated Press and is being studied by US officials investigating allegations of the attack on civilians at No Gun Ri in late July, 1950. 14. US-Taiwan Relations The Office of International Information Programs, U.S. Department of State ("TRANSPORTATION SECRETARY SLATER IN TAIWAN," 6/15/00) reported that US Transportation Secretary Rodney E. Slater visited Taiwan and delivered a keynote address Wednesday at the annual joint conference of the U.S.-Republic of China (ROC) (Taiwan) and the ROC-U.S.A. Business Councils. During his trip, Slater met with President Chen Shui-bian and other leaders of Taiwan, reaffirming the commitment of President Clinton and the US to friendship with Taiwan. The Associate Press ("EX-US DEFENSE SECY URGES TAIWAN TO HOLD TALKS WITH CHINA," Taipei, 6/16/00) reported that former US Defense Secretary William Perry urged Taiwan on Friday to hold talks with the PRC as a way to secure peace across the Taiwan Strait. A Taiwan Foreign Ministry statement said that Perry, who was to visit the PRC on Saturday after a two-day trip to Taiwan, spoke at a meeting with Taiwan Foreign Minister Tien Hung-mao. Tsai Ing-wen, chairwoman of the Taiwanese Mainland Affairs Council, told Perry in a meeting that Taiwan hopes the US can play a more active role in bringing the two sides to the negotiation table. 15. Cross-Straits Relations The Associated Press ("TAIWAN PLEDGES LOYALTY TO NEW LEADER," Taiwan, 6/16/00) reported that Taiwan's President Chen Shui-bian criticized the PRC for refusing to denounce violence against Taiwan. Chen stated, "Facing the tense situation across the Taiwan Strait, I have displayed goodwill to spare our people the damage of war, but the Chinese communists have refused to renounce the use of force against us." He added, "Although we have no intention to engage in an arms race ... we must build up our defenses to be able to effectively deter an invasion." He also accepted the military's formal pledge of loyalty Friday. 16. Israeli Arms Sales to PRC The New York Times (William A. Orme, Jr., "AMERICANS AND ISRAELIS SPAR OVER SALE OF RADAR TO CHINA COMPANY," Jerusalem, 6/15/00) and The Associated Press ("U.S. OFFICIALS MEET WITH ISRAELIS IN EFFORT TO CANCEL SALE OF SPY PLANE," Jerusalem 6/15/00) reported that Eric Newsome, director of the US State Department's political and military affairs, presented to Israel a list of 27 "countries of concern," including the PRC and India, where the US wants formal consultations before Israel negotiates arms sales, even if the weapons do not incorporate US technology. US Representative Sonny Callahan, who heads the House of Representatives subcommittee that oversees foreign aid appropriations, vowed to slice US$250 million from next year's US$1.92 billion military package for Israel if Israel's sale of the Phalcon airborne early warning system to the PRC is concluded. 17. Albright's Visit to PRC The Los Angeles Times (Henry Chu, "ALBRIGHT PLANS FAREWELL CHINA," Beijing, 6/16/00) reported that US Secretary of State Madeleine Albright will visit the PRC, perhaps as soon as next week. Sources said that Albright's trip probably will be more about saying goodbye to PRC officials than about any diplomatic breakthroughs. Likely topics of conversation in her meetings include relations across the Taiwan Strait and the inter-Korean summit. PRC officials will probably raise the question of US arms sales to Taiwan. 1. Kim Dae-jung Returns to Seoul The Korea Times (Son Key-young "SOUTH-NORTH CONFEDERATION IN SIGHT," Seoul, 06/16/00) and Chosun Ilbo (Hong Seok-joon, "PRESIDENT RETURNS FROM HISTORIC PYONGYANG VISIT," Seoul, 06/16/00) reported that ROK President Kim Dae-jung on Thursday returned from his visit to the DPRK. In a speech at the Seoul Airport, President Kim said that he and DPRK leader Kim Jong-il attended the talks aware of their responsibilities to the nation and the world. He added that he had returned home with the firm conviction that rapprochement, cooperation and unification were attainable, while cautioning that this first visit was just a beginning. Kim noted that he had raised issues regarding nuclear weapons, missile development, the National Security Law and the position of the United States Forces in Korea (USFK). He said that the reunion of displaced families scheduled around August 15 would be substantive and the Korean National Red Cross (KNRC) would commence work on this. With regard to pro-DPRK former prison inmates, Kim said that he had told Kim Jong-il that he would respond in kind to the family reunions. On economic cooperation, Kim said that ROK firms should look to solving electricity supply, roads, railways and port problems. In addition, he said that the DPRK had moved its position to accommodate the ROK view of two countries two systems instead of a centralized "federation." 2. Joint Declaration The Korea Herald (Joint Press Corps, "2 KOREAS PLEDGE NONAGGRESSION; SEOUL TO ACTIVATE TASK FORCE," Seoul, 06/16/00) and Chosun Ilbo ("TWO KOREAS RENOUNCE USE OF VIOLENCE," Pyongyang, 06/15/00) reported that ROK President Kim Dae-jung and DPRK leader Kim Jong-il stated Thursday that neither of their two countries would engage in military confrontation. The delegation led by President Kim issued a declaration Thursday saying that the two leaders had agreed that the prevention of a second Korean War was their paramount concern. The governments will accordingly open a military hot line, suspend propaganda activity and both sides will immediately stop any activity regarding sabotage. The declaration went on to say that President Kim had urged Kim Jong-il to resolve missile development issues in order to normalize ties with surrounding countries. In addition, the ROK government is to familiarize itself for negotiations on implementation of issues agreed on at the Summit and further meetings. A committee headed by either the Prime Minister or a minister level official will be organized to handle talks with its DPRK counterpart. Joongang Ilbo ("PRESIDENTIAL SPOKESPERSON FIELDS QUESTIONS ON JOINT- DECLARATION," Seoul, 06/16/00) reported that ROK Presidential Spokesperson Park Joon-young answered questions from reporters after announcing the June 14 South-North Joint Declaration. Park said that DPRK National Defense Commission Chairman Kim Jong-il's visit to the ROK will be decided with respect to the opinions of the DPRK through discussions with the ROK. Park also said that ROK President Kim Dae-jung was extremely satisfied with the fact that Kim Jong-il decided upon a starting point from which to resolve the issues facing our nation through discussions. Park added that Kim Jong-il also expressed an extremely satisfied attitude and facial expressions, as previously displayed at the dinner. Regarding the expression in the Joint Statement that said "independently and through the joint efforts," Park stated, "It is to announce that we believe it is most appropriate to resolve the South- North issues with the parties immediately concerned. There is a difference between the words and terms, but it all expresses the same idea, it means to respect each other." Park added that the only part of the issue of the separated families agreed upon was the designation of the actual date. Park said, "President Kim believed that the issue of separated families could not be neglected any longer. Therefore, the date was specified and agreed upon. I believe that the scale and date will be agreed upon in detail through continued dialogue between South and North Korea." 3. DPRK Military's View on Joint Declaration Joongang Ilbo ("NORTH KOREAN MILITARY SUPPORTS THE SOUTH-NORTH JOINT DECLARATION," Pyongyang, 06/15/00) reported that Jo Myong-rok, the first deputy chairman of the DPRK National Defense Commission, said on June 15 that the DPRK National Defense Commission appreciates with satisfaction the construction of the unification begun with ROK President Kim Dae- jung's visit to Pyongyang. Jo said at the farewell luncheon hosted by DPRK leader Kim Jong-il, "Let's practice the joint declaration with all our heart and with loyalty." In the return address, Lim Dong-won, head of the ROK National Intelligence Service, said, "We pledge ourselves to do our best for the Korean people's future, in respect to the will of President Kim and Chairman Kim. Let's start the inter-Korean relationship based on the mutual trust between the two leaders." 4. Analysts Views on Joint Declaration The Korea Herald and The Korea Times carried an opinion article by former ROK Foreign Minister Han Sung-joo ("MAJOR POWER REASSESSING THEIR POSITIONS -INT'L DIMENSION OF THE KOREAN SUMMIT," Seoul, 06/16/00) which discussed the implications of the inter-Korean Summit for the PRC, the US, Russia and Japan. Han said that while they have all welcomed and supported the inter-Korean summit, "It is clear that they are reassessing their positions vis-a-vis the Korean peninsula as the summit will surely have profound implications for their respective interests." Han stated, "In the short to medium term, China has the most to gain diplomatically from radically improved relations between North and South Korea." He stated that the PRC is back on the center-stage in Korean affairs, adding that from PRC's point of view, a breakthrough in DPRK-ROK relations is consistent with its other interests. Han also stated that a thaw between the two Koreas would be consistent with aspects of the US's soft-landing policy, but "the United States would be concerned that the appearance of improved relations between the two Koreas might divert international attention away from the issues of North Korean WMDs [weapons of mass destruction]. Furthermore, as North Korea discovers an alternative source of economic support and assistance, the United States might lose some of the leverages it has had in negotiating with North Korea." Han added that at the same time, complacency regarding the military threat from the DPRK could weaken the rationale for continued stationing of US troops in Korea. Han said that Russia's main concern regarding the Korean issue in recent years has been not to be left out of the process, but "Now, Russia would like more than simply preventing exclusion." Japan's policy goals include maintaining peace, stability and status quo on the Korean peninsula; maintaining Korea as a buffer between it and the PRC; ensuring the non-nuclearization of Korea; and curtailing the DPRK missile program. Han stated, "In the long run, Japan would also be concerned about the possibility of Chinese dominance of Korea. Hence, Tokyo feels it has the need and claim to be actively involved in the discussion of the Korean question." Han concluded that the ROK thus must have the wisdom to distinguish between appearances and realities, and between short-term impulses and long-term interests. Han said, "It (ROK) should be able to devise and pursue a diplomatic policy that enables making new friends while keeping old allies." Chosun Ilbo carried an editorial ("AFTER THE DECLARATION," Seoul, 06/16/00) which said that the June 15th South-North Joint Declaration seemed to be "give and take" of the claims of both Koreas, or a compromise between the two. The editorial pointed that this can be seen in the article regarding a "sovereign solution" to the issue of reunification and in the way both sides arrived at the discovery of similarities between their unification proposals of each. One problem is that this logically sounding ideal will have to prove whether it can overcome the differences between the ideal and the reality, and the potential differences between both sides in interpreting what these words really mean. The editorial said that the statement still has the potential to cause no small amount of criticism from the surrounding nations. On the issue of separated families, the editorial criticized that this issue should have been approached not from a position that seeks the usual kind of "one time event," but long-term solutions such as confirmation of survival, the exchanging of letters, a venue for regular meeting, and hometown visitation. The editorial stated that there is room for criticism in the way that the ROK is now willing to trade long- term DPRK ex-prisoners for the right to have separated families meet again, adding that that issue should be discussed in the context of the release of kidnapped ROK fishermen or ROK POW's. The editorial said that DPRK leader Kim Jong-il did not hesitate in mentioning DPRK refugees, and yet the ROK failed to make an issue of ROK nationals held in the DPRK against their will. The editorial concluded that the government of Kim Dae-jung must work to explain what it means by each and every detail of the Joint Declaration "to assure that it doesn't wind up becoming useless for the next government, which will need this framework as a point of departure for the next step in South-North dialogue." The Korea Herald (Hwang Jang-jin, "TWO KOREAS SET OFF TO IRON OUT DIFFERENT APPROACHES TO PENINSULA'S UNIFICATION," Seoul, 06/16/00) reported that, according to DPRK analysts, the two Koreas have started to iron out differences in their approaches to unification. Kim Yeon-chul, a DPRK expert at the Samsung Economic Research Institute, said, "The agreement is just a starting point but given the deep mistrust and animosity between the two Koreas until now, identifying a common element in the unification plan alone is a great step forward. The breakthrough is based on their broader consent, as expressed in the Joint Declaration, that reunification should be a peaceful process and they should respect each other's views." Lee Jang-hee, a law professor at the ROK's Korea University of Foreign Studies, said, "There are discussions in academia on common elements of both formulas but both governments have resisted the move to find them. The biggest achievement in the Joint Declaration is that the two leaders started to dispel distrust and work out a joint reunification formula, building on common ground." 5. ROK Parties' View on Joint Declaration The Korea Times (Kim Yong-bom, "POLITICAL CONTROVERSY SEEN OVER UNIFICATION CLAUSE," Seoul, 06/15/00) reported that the ROK's main opposition Grand National Party (GNP) expressed apprehension over the ROK government's partial approval of the "one state, two regimes" system. GNP Officials said that this might undermine the conventional one state, one regime unification principle of the ROK government. Other GNP officials warned that the confederation system may dismantle the constitutional principle, which defines the entire peninsula as sovereign territory and denies the legitimacy of the DPRK regime. GNP Representative Chung Hyung-keun said, "It is problematic that article two of the declaration gave word of the confederation system." GNP spokesman Representative Kwon Chul-hyun also pointed out the possibility that article two of the unification formula may justify the DPRK position. Kwon also questioned article one, the declaration that provides for unification in an "independent way," saying, "Article one leaves room for the North to demand the withdrawal of U.S. troops from the South at any time." An unnamed GNP official said, "The U.S. must be equally displeased as the GNP with the declaration." Other points the GNP took issue with was the absence of any mention of DPRK weapons of mass destruction and of the prisoners of war taken by the DPRK during the Korean War (1950-53) and abductees. Kwon said, "It is unfair that the declaration failed to address the repatriation of South Korean POWs and abductees, only mentioning the issue of communist prisoners here. Amidst the blaring fanfare for the inter-Korean summit and the public's excitement, the GNP has no choice but to wait for the excitement and fervor to calm down." 6. Other Views on Joint Declaration Chosun Ilbo (Kim Hong-jin, "MIXED REACTION TO JOINT DECLARATION," Seoul, 06/16/00) reported that the June 15 Joint Declaration produced mixed reactions in the ROK. Most ROK nationals welcomed the announcement saying that a way was created to head for unification and to remove the dangers of war. However, there were also voices of concern that the sudden change could lead to an "identity crisis" where people get confused about ideological foundations or values. A 55-year-old ROK elementary school vice principal confessed that he and some other teachers who were over 50 were going through a psychological turmoil as they had received anti-communism education all their lives. A prosecutor said that he feared that the Joint Declaration stating that both Koreas acknowledged each others systems would contradict the basic ROK legal system that protected the ROK including the Constitution Law and the National Security Law. An ROK Army lieutenant colonel confessed that he was surprised when his men asked him how they should accept the image of DPRK leader Kim Jong-il. 7. Japan's View on Joint Declaration Chosun Ilbo carried an analytical article by Park Jeong-hun ("THE FESTIVAL IS OVER," Tokyo, 06/16/00) which said that the Japanese officials were wary of the Joint Declaration. Park said that although Japan's official position is that it welcomes these developments on the Korean Peninsula, some have suggested that the two Koreas may go in a direction of "exclusive nationalism." Park pointed that Japan is most concerned that the ROK could drop out of the so-called "three country cooperation" on the part of the ROK, Japan, and the US. Park said that one Japanese newspaper quoted a Japanese government official's displeasure with the fact that the ROK and the DPRK agreed on August 15th, the day Korea was liberated from Japan, to exchange separated families, fearing that this could incite anti-Japanese sentiment. Park said that many conservative Japanese believe that there is plenty room for misunderstanding among allies because of recent developments, and that this kind of thinking is not uncommon. For example, the Japanese officials cited the ROK for accepting the DPRK's "anti-foreign power logic" as a victory of the DPRK over the ROK. Park concluded, "Now that President Kim Dae-jung has returned from Pyongyang, he will have to work to comfort our nervous allies. Perhaps he will be required to perform some serious acrobatics between the principle of 'national solution' and the reality of 'international cooperation.'" 8. Kim Jong-il's Visit to Seoul The Korea Herald (Kim Ji-ho, "ATTENTION FOCUSED ON KIM JONG-IL'S PROPOSED VISIT TO SEOUL," Seoul, 06/16/00) reported that DPRK analysts in the ROK believe that DPRK leader Kim Jong-il will visit Seoul. Ko Yoo-hwan of the ROK's Dongguk University said, "Through the summit, Kim Jong-il has succeeded in transforming his image to that as an open-minded and friendly leader. In addition, Kim has every reason to visit the South. He will attempt to use the visit as a means of opening up his country to the outside world." On Kim Jong-il keeping his promise, Yeon Ha-cheong of ROK's Myongji University said, "This (June 15 agreement) was made under totally different conditions from the past. We should keep in mind that, most of all, it was reached between top leaders. Kim Jong-il signed it while being watched by the eyes of the whole world. He won't be able to break his word this time." 9. ROK National Security Law The Korea Herald (Shin Hye-son, "POST-SUMMIT CONCILIATORY MOOD REKINDLES DEBATE OVER NATIONAL SECURITY LAW," Seoul, 06/16/00) reported that the Joint Declaration has revived the controversy over the ROK's National Security Law (NSL). Lee Jang-hie of the ROK's Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, who heads a committee on unification policies at the Citizens' Coalition for Economic Justice, a leading civic organization, stated, "The anachronistic National Security Law should be either abolished or revised. The law not only goes against the spirit of Wednesday's South-North Korean agreement, it also would be a self- contradiction if the government continues to view the North as an enemy under the law at a time when the leaders of both sides are talking about harmony and cooperation." However Chun In-young of ROK's Seoul National University, stated, "Complementary measures need to be taken to prevent people from being accused on false charges under the law. However, we should not forget the reality that the South and North are still in a state of war." An unnamed official of lawyers' association focusing on constitutional issues, also said, "It would not be right to remove the guard post just because the North is now pushing a peace initiative. No matter what stance they take, we should maintain the foundation of our country." 10. DPRK Defectors' View of Summit Joongang Ilbo (Lee Dong-hyun, "BEHIND THE SCENES OF NK'S HUGE WELCOME PARTY," Seoul, 06/15/00) reported that, according to DPRK defectors in the ROK, the welcome party in the DPRK was staged. An unnamed DPRK defector described the 13th World Student Festival of Pyongyang, a now legendary grand event held in 1989 and said, "The entire city of Pyongyang was transformed into a 'huge stage' solely for the festival. Actions were strictly regulated under the firm direction of Jang Song- taek, brother-in-law of Kim Jong-il and the then Party Youth Business director. The city did an excellent job producing the ideal mood for Pyongyang's big celebration." Another defector stated, "Preparations to receive the South Korean delegation started a month ago; the outskirts of Pyongyang were blocked off, effectively restricting the traffic of local citizens. If soldiers in uniform are caught loitering in the city both they and their superiors face dishonorable discharges, an extremely severe punishment in North Korea.... The North has expended a massive effort to prepare for President Kim Dae-jung's welcome event." DPRK experts believe that the grand celebration by the DPRK was directed by Yang Man-gil, head of the DPRK People's Committee of Pyongyang, under orders from the DPRK Party Organization and DPRK Guidance Department to rally the citizens. 11. Inter-Korean Economic Cooperation Joongang Ilbo (Lee Jae-hoon, "GOV'T PREPARES FOLLOW-UP TO ECONOMIC COOPERATION AGREEMENT," Seoul, 06/15/00) reported that the ROK government has embarked on working-level preparations for inter-Korea exchanges and cooperation in earnest. An unnamed ROK Ministry of Finance and Economy official said that for inter-Korea economic cooperation, feasible projects would be promoted first based on reciprocity as long as they fall within ROK's capacity. He said, "You must understand that reciprocity in economic cooperation means that if the South first does what the North suggests, then the North then does what the South requests." The Korea Times ("REALISTIC STEPS NEEDED FOR INTER-KOREAN EXCHANGES," Seoul, 06/16/00) reported that a group of DPRK economy experts stressed the need to push ahead with realistic economic exchange programs. Lee Young-son of ROK's Yonsei University said, "Pinning too much hope on the construction of the infrastructure facilities of North Korea is not desirable as it will require a huge amount of money. The inter-Korean economic exchanges should proceed gradually." Ko Il-dong, researcher at ROK's Korea Development Institute (KDI) stated, "The two Koreas need to set right their future course for brisk economic exchanges narrowing differing positions on details. It is necessary for them to set up the joint committee for the promotion of the inter-Korean economic exchanges as agreed under the 1992 South-North Basic Agreement." 1. Japanese Reaction to Inter-Korean Talks The Sankei Shimbun ("JAPANESE GOVERNMENT ENCOURAGES CONTINUATION OF TALKS," 06/15/2000) reported that while the Japanese government hails the agreements between the North and the South, the government thinks that the follow-up process would be more important. A high-ranking Foreign Ministry official stated, "The agreement made this time between the North and the South may be nothing new compared to the 1972 North-South Joint Statement or 1992 Basic Agreement, the agreement is significant." Another Foreign Ministry source stated, "The image of Kim Jong-il has significantly changed through the visual media. This has worked for the DPRK." The report said that many in the government think that the DPRK's active diplomacy will be even more facilitated. The report added that Japan aims to encourage the continuation of the Inter-Korean talks through the upcoming G7 Summit Meeting. The Asahi Shimbun ("JAPANESE GOVERNMENT EXPECTS POSITIVE EFFECTS OF INTER-KOREAN TALKS ON JAPANESE-DPRK NORMALIZATION TALKS," 06/15/2000) reported that the Japanese government expects that the inter-Korean summit talks would positively affect Japanese-DPRK normalization talks. Japanese Foreign Ministry Yohei Kono said, "(The inter-Korean summit talks) would more likely facilitate the stagnant Japanese-DPRK normalization talks." Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Mikio Aoki also stated, "We should also resume our talks with the DPRK and get things going on many aspects. The report also said that Prime Minister Yoshiro Mori asked ROK President Kim Dae-jung to tell Kim Jong-il that Japan is willing to resume normalization talks. The report added, however, that despite these expectations, the Japanese Foreign Ministry is cautious about an optimistic view that the inter-Korean talks would facilitate Japanese-DPRK normalization talks. The report quoted a high-ranking Foreign Ministry official as saying, "The inter-Korean talks are originally directed to the two Koreas. I wonder if there would be room for Japanese-DPRKrelations that involve the issue of the DPRK's abduction of Japanese civilians." 2. Japanese Security Policy The Yomiuri Shimbun ("NO CHANGE IN JAPANSE SECURITY POLICY INCLUDING POLICY TOWARD TMD," Washington, 06/15/2000) reported that sources close to the Japanese security policy authorities in the US revealed that despite detente between the ROK and the DPRK, Japan would not change its security policy, including its policy toward the theater missile defense (TMD) initiative. The sources stated that "just on meeting has not changed and would not change the security environment." The same source said that the agreed DPRK-ROK channel would bring the first hand information about the DPRK and that this would facilitate ties among Japan, the US and the ROK and would not (negatively) affect the ties. 3. DPRK Trade Deficit The Daily Yomiuri ("NORTH KOREA'S TRADE DEFICIT RISES IN '99," 06/14/2000) reported that a survey released on June 13 by the Japan External Trade Organization (JETRO) found that the DPRK saw its trade deficit increase for the second consecutive year in 1999 to more than US$600 million, up 17.1 percent from 1998. The report said that the DPRK's trade deficit totalled an estimated US$615.14 million, while its imports increased by 2.3 percent to US$1.21 billion in 1999 and its exports fell by 33.6 percent to US$597.2 million that year. The report also said that both imports from and exports to the PRC, the DPRK's largest trading partner, decreased by 7.6 percent and 27.2 percent, respectively. However, according to the report, imports of farm machinery and ammunition from the PRC rose by 762.5 percent. On the other hand, overall imports from the ROK, marked a 63.4 percent increase as imports of fossil fuels, including crude oil, rose by 106.7 percent from a year earlier. Although exports, including marine products, increasing by 31.8 percent, the DPRK's trade deficit with the ROK still increased by more than 200 percent to US$122.5 million. The DPRK's trade balance with Japan went into the black to the tune of US$18.3 million as its imports decreased by 26.2 percent and its exports decreased by 9.0 percent. The report added that since the DPRK does not release any trade statistics, JETRO's estimates were based on trade figures of 53 countries and areas that have trade relations with the DPRK. 4. Japanese-PRC Security Relations The Asahi Shimbun ("JAPANESE SELF-DEFENSE FORCES HEAD TO VISIT PRC TO EXCHANGE VIEWS ON KOREAN SITUATION," 06/16/2000) reported that the Japanese Defense Agency (JDA) announced on June 15 that Yuji Fujinawa, Chief of Staff of the Japanese Self-Defense Forces (JSDF), would visit the PRC from June 19 to 25 to discuss the situation on the Korean Peninsula and other security issues with his counterparts from the Peoples' Liberation Army (PLA). The report said that Fujinawa's visit is part of Japanese-PRC defense exchanges. The report added Kunihiko Makita, director at the Japanese Foreign Ministry's Asia section, and Kohei Masuda, official at the Japanese Foreign Ministry's defense policy, are to participate in security dialogues with the PRC on June 19. 5. Japanese Nuclear Policy The Sankei Shimbun ("CHIEF CABINET SECRETARY STATES THAT JAPAN WOULD NOT REVIEW ITS NUCLEAR POLICY," 06/16/2000) reported that asked about how the Japanese government would respond to the German government's recent decision to abandon nuclear power plants in 32 years, Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Mikio Aoki stated, "Japan is a country with few energy resources. Our basic stance is that we should steadily utilize nuclear power as we have been doing, while sufficiently securing (nuclear) safety." An item in the Daily Report for June 13 mistakenly attributed a statement by David Morton, World Food Program representative in the DPRK. The NAPSNet summary quoted Morton as saying, "We see very little result from all that effort that [relief agencies] put in, whether it's planting food or trees or working in the towns and the cities." Morton was actually referring to the efforts by the DPRK.
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