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I. United States1. Reunions of Separated Families The Associated Press (Jae-suk Yoo, "KOREAS AGREE TO FAMILY REUNIONS," Seoul, 6/30/00) reported that the ROK Unification Ministry announced that ROK and DPRK Red Cross officials signed a deal Friday to reunite separated families and to repatriate dozens of DPRK spies held in the ROK. Each country will send 100 separated family members to the other side on August 15 for four-day reunions with relatives they have not seen since the Korean War. The ROK will return all northern spies who want to return home in early September. 2. Heavy Fuel Oil Deliveries Reuters ("US MOVES TO RELEASE $20 MILLION FOR N. KOREA OIL," Washington, 6/29/00) reported that US President Clinton took a routine step on Thursday to release up to US$20 million to provide oil to the DPRK under the Agreed Framework. In order to release the funds, Clinton must waive a requirement under US law that he certify that the DPRK has terminated its nuclear weapons program. 3. Japan-DPRK Normalization Talks Kyodo News ("NO SIGN FROM PYONGYANG ON RESUMING NORMALIZATION TALKS: KONO," Tokyo, 6/30/00) reported that Japanese Foreign Minister Yohei Kono said on Friday that he has received "no signal up to this point" from the DPRK on resuming talks on establishing diplomatic ties. He also denied reports that Japan will extend additional rice aid to the DPRK above the 100,000 tons already provided through the UN World Food Program. Kono also said that he has not heard whether the DPRK will attend the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Regional Forum in Bangkok at the end of July. 4. US Troops in ROK The Korea Times (Lee Chang-sup, "US TROOPS NECESSARY FOR NATIONAL INTEREST: KIM," Seoul, 6/30/00) reported that ROK President Kim Dae-jung on Thursday stressed the importance of the close ROK-US alliance and the role of US Forces in Korea (USFK) in deterring war on the Korean peninsula. Kim said, "The United States and its troops here have been, are, and will be important for Korea." He added, "Only when the military is strong, we can maintain peace with the North. When you really want peace, you must be fully prepared for war." He also questioned whether the ROK would have been able to realize economic prosperity had it not been for the US troops. He said, "As Korean soldiers joined hands with American servicemen here to beef up security and deter any armed aggression, we were able to sign an accord with the North for exchanges and cooperation." According to Chong Wa Dae spokesman Park Joon-young, it is President Kim's belief that ROK-US relations, including the role of US troops in the ROK, should not be swayed by transitory sentimentalism. [Ed. note: This article was included in the US Department of Defense's Early Bird news service for June 30, 2000.] 5. Alleged Russian Missile Sales to DPRK The Washington Times (Bill Gertz, "RUSSIA SELLS MISSILE TECHNOLOGY TO NORTH KOREA," 6/30/00) reported that a June 8 intelligence report from the US National Security Agency said that Russia is selling missile technology and components to the DPRK and nuclear weapons components to Iran. The parts being sold included a special aluminum alloy, laser gyroscopes used in missile guidance and connectors and relays used in missile electronics. An intelligence official said, "This intelligence shows the Russians are playing both sides of the fence. They are talking missile defense while helping boost the missile threat." Officials familiar with the report explained that the gyroscopes for DPRK Scud B missiles were first sold to the DPRK's Changgwang Sinyong company in Kazakhstan and then resold to Yemen. US Representative Curt Weldon, senior member of the House Armed Services Committee, said that the Russian arms proliferation is "another clear indication of this administration's total failure in the arms-control arena. They have consistently denied the reality that these problems exist and now we're continuing to pay the price as rogue states continue to develop systems to be used against America, our allies and our troops that we have to defend." [Ed. note: This article was included in the US Department of Defense's Early Bird news service for June 30, 2000.] 6. US Missile Defense The Office of International Information Programs, US Department of State ("PENTAGON SPOKESMAN'S REGULAR THURSDAY BRIEFING," 6/29/00) reported that US Defense Department Spokesman Kenneth Bacon said that the US national missile defense (NMD) program is aimed at smaller threats than the PRC, which the US believes is modernizing its strategic nuclear forces regardless of whether or not the US NMD system is deployed. He said, "Remember, this is a defensive system. It's not an offensive system in any way. We are building a very limited defensive system that would not be used against anybody who didn't threaten us." He also said, "Many of these people in Congress who are asking the president to delay, also voted for legislation, which is now a law, that instructs the administration to deploy a national missile defense system as soon as technologically possible." 7. US Military Sales to Taiwan The South China Morning Post ("US EXPERTS BACK ANTI-MISSILE SALES TO TAIWAN," 6/30/00) reported that the Henry L. Stimson Working Group on theater missile defense said in an 85-page report that the US should meet an expected Taiwan request for an upgraded anti-missile system despite the risk that the PRC might use this as a pretext to attack. The report said, "While there are risks in responding to the Chinese build-up of ballistic missiles opposite Taiwan, there are also risks in failing to respond appropriately." [Ed. note: This article was included in the US Department of Defense's Early Bird news service for June 30, 2000.] 8. Cross-Straits Relations Reuters ("CHINA DOUBTS TAIWAN VIEW OF 'ONE CHINA'," Beijing, 6/29/00) reported that Zhu Bangzao, spokesman for the PRC Foreign Ministry, said there could be cross-Straits reconciliation talks only if Taiwan President Chen Shui-bian accepted the PRC's definition of the "one China" principle. Zhu said that the principle is "that there is but one China, of which Taiwan is a part, under the Communist government in Beijing." The Associated Press ("CHINA DETAINS FORMER TAIWAN OFFICIAL," Taipei, 6/30/00) reported that PRC police on Friday detained Pan Hsi-hsien, a retired Taiwanese major general and businessman who had traveled to the PRC after retiring from the Taiwan's National Security Council. His trip created controversy in Taiwan because he violated a Taiwanese law that bans top officials from visiting the PRC within three years of their retirement and there were worries that he would leak intelligence information to the PRC. 9. Israeli Military Sales to PRC The Associated Press (Mark Lavie, "BARAK AIDE: CANCEL CHINA PLANE SALE," Jerusalem, 6/30/00) reported that Israeli Cabinet minister Haim Ramon, a Cabinet minister close to Prime Minister Ehud Barak, said that Israel should cancel the sale of a spy plane to the PRC. He stated, "In my opinion, we must decide in favor of relations with the United States, and make the decision quickly." Israel's outgoing ambassador to the PRC, Ora Namir, also opposes the sale because even if it goes ahead, the PRC may side with the Arab nations in a future Middle East conflict. 10. PRC News Agency in Washington Agence France-Presse ("CHINA TO SELL BUILDING THAT SOME SAW AS SPY NEST," Washington, 6/30/00), the Washington Times (Rowan Scarborough, "XINHUA AGREES TO SELL BUILDING NEAR PENTAGON," 6/30/00) and the Office of International Information Programs, US Department of State ("STATE DEPT. NOON BRIEFING, THURSDAY, JUNE 29, 2000," 6/29/00) reported that US State Department Deputy Spokesman Philip Reeker said that the PRC's Xinhua News Agency notified the US Department of State that Xinhua would like authorization to sell its new building near the Pentagon. US Representative David Vitter said, "I am very happy over the decision," and said Xinhua changed course because "there was enormous pressure from us to block the transaction, which the US government had the power to do. I don't think they wanted a protracted, ongoing story that drew attention to the way the agency is used as a front for spying activity and that has been documented in terms of activity in several countries." [Ed. note: The Washington Times article was included in the US Department of Defense's Early Bird news service for June 30, 2000.] 1. New Book on Future of Korean Peninsula The Institute for International Economics, a Washington-based think tank, has published a new book entitled, "Avoiding the Apocalypse: The Future of the Two Koreas," by Marcus Noland. Noland argues that the stakes on the Korean Peninsula are extraordinarily high for both North and South Korea and for countries such as the United States that have a direct stake in these affairs. This study examines the current situation in the two Koreas in terms of three major crises: the nuclear confrontation between the United States and the DPRK, the DPRK famine, and the ROK financial crisis. The future of the peninsula is then explored under three alternative scenarios: successful reform in North Korea, collapse and absorption (as happened in Germany), and "muddling through," in which North Korea, supported by foreign powers, makes ad hoc, regime-preserving reforms that fall short of fundamental transformation. An online version of the book is available at: http://www.iie.com/Publications/publication.cfm?pub_id=94
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