NAPSNet Daily Report
tuesday, july 3, 2001

I. United States

II. People's Republic of China

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I. United States

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1. US Policy toward DPRK

The New York Times (Michael R. Gordon, "U.S. TOUGHENS TERMS FOR TALKS WITH NORTH KOREA," 7/3/01) reported that although the US Bush administration has now agreed to reopen talks with the DPRK, it has set demands far broader than those pressed by former US President Bill Clinton. The two sides have yet to set a date for high-level talks and Bush administration aides have told the ROK that the chances of the DPRK agreeing to all of its demands are low. The basic position of the Bush administration, worked out after an intensive review, is that an accord that focuses on missiles is no longer sufficient, and that only a comprehensive program to limit the DPRK's military potential can serve as a foundation for improved relations. Therefore, the DPRK must make simultaneous concessions on nuclear issues and conventional arms, and any missile agreement must be subject to extensive verification. Gary Samore, a senior fellow at the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies who was a top aide for proliferation issues on Clinton's National Security Council, said, "It makes sense for the administration to try to get progress on all of the issues they have identified: missile, nuclear and conventional. But that is going to be difficult to achieve, especially in the absence of clear inducements. If a comprehensive package is not possible, the administration should look at a stand-alone deal on missile exports because the North Koreans are actively selling missiles around the world, especially to the Middle East." While stiffening demands, the Bush administration does not appear to have increased the benefits it is prepared to provide the DPRK, and may even be offering less. Some US officials said that some issues remain unsettled in the Bush administration and could re-emerge if the negotiations make headway, like how much progress to demand in the nuclear and conventional areas if a missile deal appears to be at hand and how much aid to give to the DPRK. [Ed. note: This article was included in the US Department of Defense's Early Bird news service for July 3, 2001.]

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2. DPRK Missile Developments

The Washington Times (Bill Gertz, "NORTH KOREA TESTS ITS MISSILE ENGINE," 7/3/01) reported that the DPRK conducted an engine test of its long-range missile last week. US intelligence officials said that the ground test was the first major development in the long-range-missile program since the DPRK conducted the flight test of the Taepodong-1 in August 1998. One intelligence official said, "It's unclear why they conducted the test. It could have been to test the capabilities of the existing engine, or there could have been other, unknown reasons." Other officials said that the engine test is another sign of the growing anti-US posture of the DPRK government. Anonymous US officials said that the engine firing was detected at a testing facility near the town of Taepodong on the DPRK's northeastern coast. Officials familiar with intelligence reports of the test said that the effects of the engine test were photographed by US military reconnaissance aircraft. Some officials said that the engine test could be related to Taepodong-2 development. The ground test does not appear to violate the DPRK's pledge last year that it will not conduct flight tests while it holds discussions with the US on its missile program. [Ed. note: This article was included in the US Department of Defense's Early Bird news service for July 3, 2001.]

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3. Japanese History Textbook

Agence France Presse ("CHANGES TO JAPAN TEXTBOOK CONDEMNED AS INSUFFICIENT," Tokyo, 7/3/01) reported that the ROK and the PRC on Tuesday dismissed as insufficient Fuso Publishing Incorporated's announcement on July 2 that it would revise nine parts of the controversial junior high school textbook. An ROK foreign ministry official said, "It still falls far short of our demand. Fuso's move is not enough to satisfy us. The ministry has already asked the Japanese government to approach the issue in a more active way through diplomatic channels." The PRC, which had highlighted 35 parts of the book it wanted changed, was equally dismissive of the move. PRC foreign ministry spokeswoman Zhang Qiyue said, "The new amendments do not accommodate changes requested by the Chinese side. We still think that there are many problems in the textbook which distort history." Zhang said that the PRC government had pointed out the errors "through diplomatic channels." However, a Japanese Foreign Ministry official stated, "We have not received any official communication from Seoul or Beijing on the matter. The revisions were voluntarily made by the publishing firm, and it's difficult for us to comment on what the company did on its own." He added, "The education ministry has been reviewing the controversial textbooks as South Korea and China requested. The process has not been finished and we will report the result of the review process to Korea and China as soon as it is done."

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4. US Spy Plane

The Washington Post (Thomas E. Ricks and Don Phillips, "DISASSEMBLED NAVY PLANE SCHEDULED TO LEAVE CHINA TODAY," 7/3/01) reported that Navy spokeswoman Lieutenant Commander Cate Mueller announced that the US Navy EP-3 reconnaissance plane stranded in Hainan Island will return to the US in pieces on July 5. A chartered Antonov-124 cargo plane will carry the disassembled Navy plane on a multi-hop, 20-hour flight from Hainan Island through Manila and Honolulu to Georgia. One official said that the Russian-made cargo plane is expected to leave the PRC on Tuesday and to arrive Thursday at Lockheed Martin Corporation plant in Marietta, Ga., where the EP-3 will be reassembled over a period of months. [Ed. note: This article was included in the US Department of Defense's Early Bird news service for July 3, 2001.]

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5. PRC-Indian Relations

Agence France Presse ("CHINA KEEN TO DEVELOP RELATIONS WITH INDIA," Beijing, 7/3/01) reported that the PRC said Monday it was willing to work with India to further develop bilateral relations. The PRC's official Xinhua News Agency quoted Li Peng, chairman of the National People's Congress Standing Committee, as saying, "It is the common wish of the two peoples to maintain and develop a healthy, stable, and good- neighborly cooperative relationship on the basis of the five principles of peaceful co-existence." Li said that building such a relationship would help maintain peace and stability in Asia and the world. He added that there was enormous potential for the PRC and India to develop mutually beneficial cooperation.

II. People's Republic of China

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1. PRC Views of Japan

World Affairs ("WHAT'S THE MATTER WITH JAPAN," No. 12, 2001, pp.8-13) published a set of speeches on Japan's development in the recent decade. These speeches center on the questions of Japan's changing tendency economically, politically and socially since 1990s. Jin Xide, Director of the Department of Foreign Affairs, Institute of Japanese Studies at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, considered that since the 1990s Japan has entered a new stage of development, which can be called the Third Transition. In Japan's view, this decade is a perplexed and lost one. Jin elaborated that Japan realized its economic miracle with various favorable conditions, but since the 1990s, the situation has changed and Japan no longer possesses these advantages. Also, with end of the Cold War, the rivalry of Parties has disappeared and Japanese society has become more conservative generally. In addition, there emerges a neo-nationalism. In the meantime, Japan is now more interested in power diplomacy. Prime Minister Koizumi has demonstrated his right-wing tendency and has met the demand of society for a strong politician. His positions on the textbook issue, visiting Yasukuni Shrine, and revising the constitution will create an unfavorable impact on Sino-Japanese relations. Wang Xinsheng, professor of history at Peking University, suggested that problems with Japan's system have made the Japanese economy stagnant for ten years. The role of the Japanese Government is a soft one, not that of instructing and administering through legally regulated procedures. This is the fundamental reason of all the problems of current Japan. Koizumi has proposed public voting for Prime Minister, which may bring about a breakthrough of the current stagnant situation. In Wang's view, Japan's modernization is far from finished, as it still needs to develop under the guidance of the state. Feng Shaokui, a researcher at the Institute of Japanese Studies at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, discussed the US factor in influencing Japan's external strategy. Some Japanese strategists well remember the "historical lesson" that "those who challenge the leading states are doomed to fail, and those who support the leading states will benefit." In their view, China is challenging the US, while Japan is waiting for benefits. Japan is concerned about the possibility that China could become its economic competitor. If China confronted the US, it would restrain China's development and would weaken the PRC's ability to compete against Japan. However, developing an economic relationship with China is in Japan's current and long-term interest. Japan also has to consider how to deal with a stronger China without confronting the US. Wiser Japanese politicians have actually suggested maintaining good relations with both the US and China. Prime Minister Koizumi has already indicated that Japan should maintain an alliance relationship with the US, while attaching importance to its relationship with China and other neighboring states.

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2. Militarization of Outer Space

PLA Daily (Xie Rong, "CANADA OPPOSES MILITARIZATION IN OUTER SPACE," Moscow, 06/27/01, P5) reported that during his visiting in Moscow, Canadian Foreign Minister said at a press conference on June 25 that Canada opposes militarizing outer space. He stressed the importance of arms control and disarmament. He pointed out that Canada adopts a consistent policy of opposing militarization of outer space, which was written down in the Canada-Russian Joint Declaration signed during Russian President's visit to Canada in December last year.

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3. US Defense Strategy

Jiefang Daily (Xinhua News Agency, "US MAKES ARRANGEMENTS FOR NEW DEFENSE STRATEGY," Washington, 07/02/01, P8) reported that US President George W. Bush said on June 30 that the US will work out new defense strategy, and requested the Congress to ratify its supplemented military budget in the fiscal year of 2002. In the weekly broadcasting speech for the upcoming Independent Day, Bush said once Defense Minister Rumsfeld finishes the review work over the US Forces' mission and structure, "we will suggest formulating new defense strategy for the new era." The news story reported that it is said that the development of missile defense system will become a key part in the new defense strategy. He said that the US is negotiating with its allies, Russia and other countries over the issue of missile shield.

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4. ABM Treaty

Jiefang Daily (Xinhua News Agency, "RUSSIA IS POSSIBLE TO AMEND ABM TREATY," Moscow, 06/30/01, P4) reported that according to Russian news media, the Director of International Military Cooperation Bureau of Russian Defense Department expressed on June 29 that Russia will not rule out the possibility of amending the 1972 Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) treaty. However, he said, the US refusal to implement the ABM article of not permitting missile defense deployment would tear up the whole treaty. Russia will not agree this, he added, because it will destroy the containment and balance of power system that guarantees international strategic stability.

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5. PRC-US Relations

People Daily (Xinhua News Agency, "TANG JIAXUAN AND POWELL TALK ON PHONE," Beijing, 06/29/01, P5) reported that the PRC and the US looked beyond the difficulties in bilateral relations of the past months and hoped for an improvement in their ties. During a telephone conversation with US Secretary of State Colin Powell, PRC Foreign Minister Tang Jiaxuan said he was glad to see momentum for improvement and development in bilateral relations lately. Powell, quoted in a press release issued by the PRC Ministry of Foreign Affairs, called the unhappy incidents of the previous few months things of the past. According to the press release, Tang said that the PRC attaches great importance to its ties with the US and hopes to develop a constructive relationship. He also expressed the PRC's willingness to strengthen dialogues and cooperation with the US, and enhance understanding and trust, so as to promote the sound and stable development of bilateral ties. Powell, agreeing with Tang on the importance of bilateral ties, said he is willing to keep close contacts with Tang, according to the press release.

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6. Cross-Straits Relations

China Daily (Xing Zhigang, "TAIWAN URGED TO ACCEPT ONE-CHINA PRINCIPLE," Xiamen, 06/28/01, P1) reported that Wang Zaixi, deputy director of the Taiwan Affairs Office of the PRC State Council, said on June 27 that the security of Taiwan and the stability of cross-Straits ties rest in Taiwan's acceptance of the one-China principle rather than in its huge stockpile of advanced weapons. He made the remarks at a press conference held during a two-day seminar on cross-Straits ties. Asked to comment on Taiwan's test-firing of US-made Patriot missiles last week, Wang said the move will only aggravate relations between the island and the PRC. "No matter how many or how advanced the weapons they acquire might be, they will be of no use should the Taiwan authorities attempt to split the country," Wang said. He warned that any pro-independence move by Taiwan is set to bring serious consequences to relations between Taiwan and the mainland. Wang said that Taiwan's intention to write Taiwan in English on the cover of the island's passports is a very dangerous idea. Commenting on former Taiwan leader Lee Teng-hui's reported plan to form a new political group to co-operate with the pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party, Wang said that the move demonstrates Lee is still clinging to his political conspiracy of splitting the motherland. "But I firmly believe that Lee is doomed to failure, as the Taiwan compatriots are able to see through his plot and make a clear distinction between right or wrong," he said.

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Produced by the Nautilus Institute for Security and Sustainable Development in partnership with:
International Policy Studies Institute Seoul, Republic of Korea
Center for American Studies,
Fudan University, Shanghai, People's Republic of China
Monash Asia Institute,
Monash University, Clayton, Australia

Gee Gee Wong:
Berkeley, California, United States

Timothy L. Savage:
Berkeley, California, United States

Robert Brown:
Berkeley, California, United States

Kim Hee-sun:
Seoul, Republic of Korea

Hiroyasu Akutsu:
Tokyo, Japan

Peter Razvin:
Moscow, Russian Federation

Yunxia Cao:
Shanghai, People's Republic of China

Dingli Shen:
Shanghai, People's Republic of China

John McKay:
Clayton, Australia

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