NAPSNet Daily Report
tuesday, july 10, 2001

I. United States

II. People's Republic of China

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I. United States

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1. US-DPRK Talks

The New York Times (Don Kirk, "NORTH KOREA: NO TALKS SOON WITH US," 7/10/01) reported that the DPRK's official Rodong Sinmun said that far from engaging in dialogue with the US, the DPRK plans to strengthen its armed forces if the US sets conditions for talks. The paper said that the DPRK would never accept the demand of US President George W. Bush for "verifiable constraints" as a precondition for negotiating an end to the production, testing and export of missiles.

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2. US Troops in Asia

Newsweek Special Edition (Gregory Beals, "LET'S KEEP THE FLAG FLYING," Summer 2001, P.29) reported that Admiral Dennis Blair, commander of US Pacific forces, said in an interview that he thinks that a US presence should remain key to the balance of power in Asia. Blair pointed to the DPRK as the biggest threat to the US, saying, "That is not a rapidly growing threat. I think it is better to characterize it as a persistent threat. We see the persistence of the North Korean [regime's] ability to hold on to power, to keep their Army as large as it once was but also to improve it in various ways, modernizing their equipment and deploying their forces closer to the DMZ." He noted that forward- stationed forces with homeports and home stations in Japan and the ROK will stay fairly constant, even if dramatic developments such as a Korean reconciliation happens. Asked about the meaning of "greater force projection," Blair said the theory is that the US can do its military tasks in Asia from bases in the US. However, he said, the idea that the US can just zip forces out from the US to Asia at anytime is "just flat wrong as far as the Pacific is concerned." He added, "We have to be out here. We have to be interacting with countries in the region all the time. So I am a strong proponent of having forces forward-stationed in order to do what we have to do out here." [Ed. note: This article was included in the US Department of Defense's Early Bird news service for July 10, 2001.]

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3. US-Japan Status of Forces Agreement

Agence France Presse ("JAPANESE PARLIAMENTARY PANEL SEEKS REVIEW OF US FORCES PACT," Tokyo, 7/10/01) reported that the Foreign Affairs Committee of Japan's lower House of Representatives unanimously adopted a resolution calling for a review of the Japan-US Status of Forces Agreement. The vote followed the arrest last week of US Air Force Staff Sergeant Timothy Woodland in connection with the alleged rape of a Japanese woman near a US base on Okinawa. The parliamentary committee's resolution said that the case "gave great concern and shock to the people of Okinawa, and the people of Japan are feeling indignation." The resolution noted that it had taken "considerable time until the transfer of custody was decided, causing distrust among the Japanese people." It said, "The government should swiftly consider even a review of the Japan-US Status of Forces Agreement and work on drastic improvements of the situation." However, Chief Cabinet Secretary Yasuo Fukuda indicated that Japan would seek to improve the application of the existing agreement rather than push for a clear-cut revision. Japanese Foreign Minister Makiko Tanaka on Tuesday said that Japan would do its best to improve its application in the immediate future. Jiji Press news agency quoted Tanaka as saying during the committee meeting, "If it turned out to be ineffective, a revision will be taken into account. I firmly believe (the accord) will function by making utmost efforts to improve its application."

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4. US-PRC Relations

The Associated Press ("CHINA LEADER: TIES WITH U.S. BETTER," Moscow, 7/10/01) reported that PRC President Jiang Zemin said Tuesday that ties between the PRC and the US are improving and that he is "optimistic about the future of Chinese-US relations." Jiang said that PRC relations with the US have "lived through a difficult period recently." He said that the spy plane collision "was bad both for China and the United States, which we would like to avoid." However, he said, recent contacts between the two countries testified to "positive changes." Jiang said, "In spite of some differences, China and the United States have common interests." Jiang also said that he would be willing to go to Taiwan for talks, provided that its authorities first recognize the PRC principle of "peaceful unification, one state, two systems." He warned however that the PRC could not commit itself to avoiding the use of force against the island.

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5. Cross-Straits Proposals

Agence France Presse ("CHINA REJECTS TAIWAN OPPOSITION PARTY'S PROPOSAL OF CONFEDERATION," Beijng, 7/10/01) reported that the PRC on Tuesday rejected a proposal by Taiwan's Kuomintang (KMT) party to unite the island with the PRC in a confederation prior to eventual reunification. Instead, the PRC foreign ministry said that it maintained its proposal of reunification under the "one country, two systems" formula that has already been applied to Hong Kong and Macau. PRC foreign ministry spokeswoman Zhang Qiyue said, "We are in favor of the reunification of China, and the 'one-country two systems' formula, but we are not in favor of a confederate system." Zhang on Tuesday said the "one country, two systems" proposal was a better way to deal with the problem, arguing it took into account both history and the present situation with "maximum flexibility."

II. People's Republic of China

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1. DPRK-ROK Relations

People Daily (Xinhua News Agency, Gao Haorong, "ROK AND DPRK WILL RESUME TALKS," Seoul, 07/07/01, P3) reported that ROK President Kim Dae-jung said that the ROK and the DPRK will resume official talks in the near future and conditions are right for an improvement in ties with the DPRK, according to an ROK news media on July 6. "From now on, relations between the two sides will move towards the resolution of the stalemate," Kim said in an interview with Daegu Ilbo, a provincial newspaper. "I expect dialogue between authorities of the two sides to reopen sooner or later." Once the dialogue reopens, the two sides will discuss the liaison of railways and highways, the entry- into-force of the 4 economic cooperation agreements, military confidence building and tourism.

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2. Japanese 2001 Defense White Paper

Global Times (Zhu Xiao, "JAPAN WISHES TO SPEED UP ITS MILITARY EXPANSION," 07/10/01, P2) reported that the Japanese Defense Agency on July 6 released the 2001 Defense White Paper, which the newsletter said has three features. One is that it propagates a military threat from the PRC. The 2001 version added three more pages describing the PRC's military situation compared to the 2000 version. It reaches an "utterly groundless" evaluation that the PRC's military forces have exceeded the range for necessary defense, and says that Japan is deeply concerned. Besides, the white paper devotes much space to Taiwan's military capability, and expressed that the cross-Straits tension should be kept on high alert. The second feature is that the white paper stressed the development of the Japanese Self-Defense Forces (JSDF). Arguing against the relevant articles in the "Peace Constitution," it said that since Japan is a country with independent sovereignty, it ought to have the right of self-defense. It not only proposes that Japan have the rights to its own military forces, but also requests to expand weapons systems and strengthen the capability of dispatching military forces. To enable the JSDF to react quickly in emergent situations, it said that Japan should improve the JSDF's ability both in software and hardware. The hard ware aspect refers to the modernization and renewal of equipment. The software aspect refers to revision of relevant regulations that restricted the JSDF's action. Another feature of the 2001 defense white paper is that it emphasizes the importance of continuing cooperation with the US and carrying out joint research on the missile defense system, based on its asserted reason that Japan is facing a security threat.

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3. PRC on Defense Technology Development

Guangming Daily (Liang Shoupan, "DEFENSE TECHNOLOGY DEVELOPMENT SHOULD NOT FOLLOW BLINDLY," 07/09/01, P1) carried an article by a PRC academician, who is now the senior technology advisor of the Chinese Aeronautics Technology Corporation and the Chinese Aeronautical Mechanics and Electronics Corporation. He said in the article that a country's prestige depends on its economic and armed forces. From the Han and Tang Dynasty to the 18th century, Chinese economic power had been leading the world, but due to ignorance of the developments in science and technology, China had been bullied and oppressed since the Opium War. Liang said that the lesson of history is that a strong economy and defense is one of key links to national prestige. He pointed out that defense modernization should not be interpreted as "others have, we must also have." One other mistake is that once hearing the reports and propaganda, people tend to believe them and do all they can to catch up. He stressed that PRC national defense modernization absolutely should not follow blindly. Instead, the PRC should analyze prudently technological feasibility and take into consideration the national need. The need should be based on the goals of war and the requirements of war. For example, we should have proper means to fight back against an enemy's nuclear deterrence. For the peace and stability of our neighborhood, we should renew our tactical weapons. On the other hand, he said, because China is a peace-loving country and has no intension to invade and expand our territory, it is not urgent currently to develop a powerful ocean fleet and global strategic air forces. He said that to solve the problem of backwardness in weaponry, the PRC should mobilize the creativity of relevant departments by means of "bidding."

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4. PRC-US Relations

China Daily (Xinhua News Agency, "US SHOULD ESCHEW CONFRONTATION," 07/06/01, P2) reported that former US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger said that the PRC poses no threat to the US in the foreseeable future and it would be wrong for the US to openly advocate a confrontational strategy towards the country. Kissinger said that he is opposed to placing the PRC into the niche of the former Soviet Union and launching another crusade against it as some of US conservative politicians have suggested in recent days. "To select China in advance as our principle enemy and slide it into the position vacated by the Soviet Union, I think would have the paradoxical effect of isolating us in Asia; nobody will join us," he said. Kissinger stressed that the PRC would not have the means to become an aggressor in the next 15 to 20 years. "Look at the military budget. The Chinese military budget is announced. It is US$12 billion a year in 1999 ... but ours is US$350 billion. The Japanese is US$49 billion," Kissinger noted. "So they are not in any position to threaten to push us out of the Western Pacific, as some people claim. I also do not think that is their intention," he added. Kissinger complained that the US has not yet set up the strategic objective on its China policy and therefore failed to define what the exact purpose of this strategy is." Referring to the Taiwan question, he reiterated his support for continued implementation of the one-China policy which he thought enables the US to continue the status without having to defend it by military means." He also warned against sale of weapons that seem to tie Taiwan into the US command system in such a way that it amounts to making it independent.

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5. PRC-Russian Relations

China Daily (Jiang Zhuqing, "JIANG TO SIGN TREATIES WITH RUSSIA IN JULY," 07/06/01, P2) reported that PRC Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Zhang Qiyue said at a press conference on July 5 that the PRC will sign a treaty of friendly cooperation when PRC President Jiang Zemin pays a visit to Russia on July 15. "The treaty will legalize the peaceful relationship between the two countries in the name of a friendship to last generations, and will show the aspirations and determination of the two people to be good neighbors and good friends forever," she said. Zhang said that the treaty also describes principles and directions for cooperation between the two countries in political, economic and trade, scientific, technological and other areas. During the visit, she said, Jiang and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin will exchange views on pressing regional and international issues in an effort to maintain a global strategic balance and stability.

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Produced by the Nautilus Institute for Security and Sustainable Development in partnership with:
International Policy Studies Institute Seoul, Republic of Korea
Center for American Studies,
Fudan University, Shanghai, People's Republic of China
Monash Asia Institute,
Monash University, Clayton, Australia

Gee Gee Wong:
Berkeley, California, United States

Timothy L. Savage:
Berkeley, California, United States

Robert Brown:
Berkeley, California, United States

Kim Hee-sun:
Seoul, Republic of Korea

Hiroyasu Akutsu:
Tokyo, Japan

Peter Razvin:
Moscow, Russian Federation

Yunxia Cao:
Shanghai, People's Republic of China

Dingli Shen:
Shanghai, People's Republic of China

John McKay:
Clayton, Australia

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