NAPSNet Daily Report
wednesday, august 1, 2001

I. United States

II. Republic of Korea III. People's Republic of China

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I. United States

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1. Kim Jong-Il's Russia Visit

The Associated Press (John Iams, "RUSSIA, N. KOREA TO SIGN STATEMENT," Moscow, 07/28/01) and Reuters ("OFFICIAL SAYS KIM, PUTIN WON'T FOCUS ON MISSILES," Moscow, 07/28/01) reported that Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Losyukov was quoted as saying by the Interfax news agency on Saturday that DPRK leader Kim Jong-il and Russian President Vladimir Putin plan to sign a declaration stating their shared outlook on world affairs at their coming meeting in Moscow. Losyukov said that the statement would reflect "Moscow and Pyongyang's views on the international outlook for development of bilateral relations and approaches to key international issues." He added that discussions may include the two countries' shared opposition to US plans for a national missile defense system. Losyukov said that he doubted that the DPRK missile program would be on the official agenda for the talks, but the topic could be covered in the discussion of strategic stability. He added, "We believe that this issue is a matter for U.S.-Korean relations," and that Russia would welcome a resumption of dialogue between the US and the DPRK.

Reuters ("N.KOREA'S KIM REMAINS RECLUSIVE EN ROUTE TO MOSCOW," Moscow, 07/29/01) reported that DPRK leader Kim Jong-il on Sunday failed to show up at an official welcome in Ulan-Ude organized by senior officials from the Russian republic of Buryatia. Russian officials accompanying Kim said that he was breakfasting with Konstantin Pulikovsky, Russian President Vladimir Putin's personal envoy in Russia's far east. Kim is expected to arrive in Moscow late on August 3 and meet Putin the next day. The visit is due to end on August 8 after a trip to St. Petersburg.

The Associated Press (Ivan Sekretarev, "NORTH KOREA'S KIM VISITS RUSSIA," Omsk, 08/01/01) and Reuters ("N.KOREA'S KIM GLIMPSED BRIEFLY ON SIBERIAN STOP," Omsk, 08/01/01) reported that DPRK leader Kim Jong-il toured a tank factory, pig farm and library during a stopover in the western Siberian city of Omsk on Wednesday on his way to Moscow. The ITAR-Tass news agency reported that officials at the Transmash factory, which produces the T-80 tank, expressed hope that the visit would produce new contracts. Kim was also shown a tractor production hall. A visit to a tank firing range in Omsk was canceled, apparently because of security concerns. ITAR-Tass also reported that Kim may visit Mission Control for the Russian space agency and a near full-size model of the Mir space station on display at the Khrunichev aerospace plant during his Moscow visit. The Interfax news agency said that representatives of the local branch of the Russian-DPRK Friendship Society had hoped to meet Kim at an Omsk theater after his arrival Tuesday evening but were denied access to him. Kim also reportedly skipped an audience at Novosibirsk with the family of a peasant who is credited with saving his father's life by falling on a grenade at a rally 48 years ago, but sent an aide onto a railway platform to hand the family a suitcase apparently filled with gifts.

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2. DPRK-Russian Economic Cooperation

Reuters (Andrei Shukshin, "KIM HEADS FOR MOSCOW, RUSSIA SEEKS ECONOMIC GAIN," Moscow, 07/30/01) reported that Russian experts said on Monday that they hoped improving ties between the DPRK and Russia would generate economic benefits. An anonymous government expert stated, "Multilateral economic cooperation -- involving Russia, the North, South Koreas and maybe also China -- is high on the agenda" for the upcoming Russia-DPRK summit. Among a number of proposals on the table is a plan to open Russia's Trans-Siberian railway to the ROK via the inter-Korean railway. The expert added, "Similar plans exist for gas and oil transportation across North Korea." The business daily Vedomosti said that Russia had also offered to join the ROK in upgrading the DPRK's infrastructure to be used in the transportation projects, in exchange for the ROK writing off some of Russia's debts. Newspapers reported that the DPRK's debt to Russia is at about US$1.7 billion, while annual trade between the countries has decreased from US$2 billion in the late 1980s to a current US$100,000. The expert stated, "These figures show that there is scope for improvement," adding that non-ferrous metals and cheap labor were just two examples of how the DPRK could pay back Russia. He also said that as all economic projects on the Korean peninsula hinge on easing political tensions there, the DPRK-Russia talks were also set to address security issues.

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3. Appearances of DPRK Officials

The Associated Press (Soo-Jeong Lee, "NKOREAN LEADER RIDES TO MOSCOW," Seoul, 08/01/01) reported that 150 people are reportedly accompanying DPRK leader Kim Jong-il on his train ride to Moscow, including Yon Hyong-muk, former prime minister and a member of the National Defense Commission; Jon Hui-jong, Kim's chief protocol officer; and Kim Yong- chun, chief of the military's general staff. Choi Byung-suk, a video analyst at the ROK Unification Ministry, said that television footage showed Yon and Jon with Kim Jong-il when he met Russian officials shortly after crossing from the DPRK into Russia at the beginning of his trip a week ago, while Kim Yong-chun was spotted late Tuesday when Kim Jong Il arrived in Omsk. ROK officials believe that Vice Marshal Jo Myong-rok did not make the trip because he is sick, while the whereabouts of Kim Yong-nam, the DPRK's ceremonial head of state, are not publicly known. ROK officials also noted that Kim Yong-sun, who handles policy with the ROK and other countries that have no formal ties with the DPRK, has made only one reported public appearance beside Kim Jong-il this year, compared to 16 times in the first half of 2000.

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4. Implementation of Agreed Framework

Reuters (Carol Giacomo, "N. KOREA URGED TO MOVE SOON ON NUCLEAR COMMITMENTS," Washington, 07/26/01) reported that Charles Pritchard, US special envoy for negotiations with the DPRK, told the US House of Representatives International Relations subcommittee on Asia and the Pacific on Thursday that the DPRK must soon begin working with international inspectors to satisfy concerns about its past nuclear program or construction of two new energy reactors could be halted. Pritchard said that from the US view, "the Agreed Framework is very clear and precise. The North Koreans must come into full compliance with their NPT (Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty) obligations before any significant nuclear components and any additional construction can take place. If that doesn't happen, there will be no additional construction. The light water reactor project will stop." Pritchard said that excavation at the reactor site begins this fall and the project will reach a "major turning point" next year when the first concrete is poured. He stated, "Although the date for delivering key nuclear components is still in the future, the DPRK must begin active cooperation (with the International Atomic Energy Agency) soon, to avoid serious delays."

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5. DPRK Threat to US

The Washington Times (Joyce Howard Price, "PENTAGON RATES N. KOREA, IRAQ AS TOP THREATS," 07/29/01, 3) reported that US Deputy Defense Secretary Paul Wolfowitz said that the US military sees the DPRK and Iraq as the leading military threats to the US in the near future. Wolfowitz stated, "Wars might happen tomorrow in Korea and Iraq." He added, "We face enormous conventional threats from North Korea." [Ed. Note: This article was included in the US Department of Defense's Early Bird news service for Monday, July 30.]

Reuters ("NORTH KOREA SAYS U.S. THREAT FEAR 'PREPOSTEROUS'," Seoul, 08/01/01) reported that the DPRK's official Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) on Wednesday criticized the US for calling it a military threat. KCNA stated, "It is preposterous for the U.S. to talk about this 'threat' and it is another outrageous challenge." It added that the US was using such talk in order to "launch another local war to meet the interests of U.S. munitions monopolies."

Reuters (Oleg Zhunusov, "N.KOREA'S KIM IN RUSSIA, SLAMS U.S. MISSILE FEARS," Ussurisk, 07/26/01) reported that DPRK leader Kim Jong-il told Russia's Itar-Tass on Thursday that he supported Russia's position on US missile defense. Kim added, "The American fuss over the 'missile threat' from our country is completely groundless. It is no more than sophistry aimed at concealing the ambitions of those seeking to establish their global domination."

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6. British Embassy in DPRK The Associated Press ("BRITAIN OPENS EMBASSY IN N. KOREA," Seoul, 07/30/01) reported that British officials said Tuesday that Great Britain opened an embassy in the DPRK over the weekend. Adrian Chapman, a spokesman at the British embassy in Seoul, said that the British embassy is temporarily located in the German embassy quarters in Pyongyang, but British and DPRK officials are negotiating over a permanent site as well as the number of embassy staffers. In March, James Hoare was appointed as Great Britain's Ambassador to the DPRK.

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7. US-DPRK Talks

The Associated Press (George Gedda, "POWELL VISITS SOUTH KOREA," Seoul, 07/27/01), The Washington Post (Steven Mufson, "POWELL URGES RESUMPTION OF N. KOREA TALKS," Seoul, 07/28/01, A13) and Reuters (Elaine Monaghan, "POWELL, IN SOUTH KOREA, HAS MESSAGE FOR NORTH," Seoul, 07/27/01) reported that US Secretary of State Colin Powell arrived in the ROK on Friday and said that the US was ready for talks with the DPRK any time, anywhere, with no preconditions. He also stated, "I hope very much that Chairman Kim Jong-il will visit Seoul this year." Before his meeting with ROK Foreign Minister Han Seung-soo, Powell stated, "There are opportunities with the North that we couldn't have dreamed of 25 to 30 years ago. We have to make sure we try and seize those opportunities." An unnamed senior US State Department official stated, "I don't think we've ever had a problem with North Korea reaching out in the world. We've always expressed our hope that they would, and that includes China and Russia."

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8. ROK Protests of Missile Defense

The Associated Press ("S. KOREANS PROTEST US MISSLE DEFENSE," Seoul, 07/28/01) reported that about 500 ROK activists marched near the US 8th Army base in Seoul on Saturday to protest the US missile defense plan. The demonstrators also demanded the withdrawal of US troops stationed in the ROK. The demonstrators chanted, "Let's repel the missile defense and advance national reunification. U.S. troops out of Korea!" On Friday, some 300 activists demonstrated holding signs saying "Stop the Star Wars madness!" and "Colin Powell, you are not welcome to South Korea."

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9. US-PRC Talks

The Associated Press (George Gedda, "POWELL MOVES FORWARD IN CHINA TALKS," Beijing, 07/28/01) and the Washington Post (Steven Mufson and Philip P. Pan, "U.S., CHINA SET FOR MORE TALKS," Beijing, 07/29/01, A01) reported that US Secretary of State Colin Powell said Saturday that he narrowed differences with the PRC over military exports during meetings with PRC officials. PRC Foreign Ministry spokesman Sun Yuxi said in a subsequent news conference that the PRC has been making an earnest effort to comply with its obligations under a US-PRC nonproliferation agreement signed in November, but contended that the US has failed to comply with its commitments. Powell also said that he offered assurances to the DPRK that the missile defense system planned by the US would be limited and would not threaten the strategic deterrent of either the PRC or Russia. Powell met with PRC President Jiang Zemin, Premier Zhu Rongji, Vice Prime Minister Qian Qichen and Foreign Minister Tang Jiaxuan. He raised the possibility that military-to-military contacts, suspended after the spy plane incident, will be resumed, possibly in a modified form. He also defended US military sales to Taiwan, saying, "It gives them the confidence they need to engage with China." He said he raised concerns about reported PRC military buildup across the Taiwan Strait, but the PRC side denied there was any such buildup. During the talks, the PRC agreed to restart a formal dialogue with the US on human rights and consult with US experts on weapons proliferation.

The Washington Post (Steven Mufson, "CHINA CUTS INTERVIEW WITH POWELL, ANGERS U.S.," 07/31/01, A18) reported that State Department spokesman Charles Hunter said Monday that the US State Department protested to the PRC government that the state-run Chinese Central Television network violated an agreement with US Embassy officials when it cut part of an interview taped with Secretary of State Colin L. Powell. The portion deleted included some of Powell's comments on Taiwan and human rights and amounted to about one or two minutes of a 24-minute interview. Hunter stated, "We'll continue to convey to the Chinese government and the Chinese people our clear and unedited views of all the issues that arise in U.S.-Chinese relations." He added, "We believe the Chinese people are mature and sophisticated enough to hear both their own government's views and those of others who may disagree."

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10. US Satellite Exports to PRC

Reuters (Carol Giacomo, "U.S. SEEN DELAYING SATELLITE EXPORTS TO CHINA," Washington, 07/31/01) reported that an unnamed senior US official said on Tuesday that the US President George W. Bush administration is expected to continue delaying a decision on US communications satellite exports to the PRC because PRC leaders have not satisfied US concerns about arms exports. The official said that PRC leaders "knew what they had to say and they didn't say it" during talks with Secretary of State Colin Powell on Saturday. He added, "Indefinite delay (in approving licenses for satellite exports) is the most probable outcome."

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11. US-Australia Talks

Reuters ("U.S. STRESSES AUSTRALIA'S KEY ROLE IN ASIA-PACIFIC," Canberra, 07/29/01), and The Washington Times (Ben Barber, "U.S. EYES MILITARY ALLIANCE IN PACIFIC," 07/31/01, 1) reported that US Secretary of State Colin Powell during talks with Australian officials on Monday stressed the importance of the US-Australian partnership in the Asia-Pacific region. He stated, "There is instability in your neck of the woods ... there has been a lot of problems in Asia and the Pacific region. This is a time for vigilance and this is a time for us to remain politically engaged, diplomatically engaged and to keep our military defenses up." He added, "We are equal and good partners in the work that we do, and that's what we want Australia to be -- a good partner for the United States and to play that leading role in the region." The annual talks involve Powell and US Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld and Australian Prime Minister Howard, Foreign Minister Alexander Downer and Defense Minister Peter Reith. After the talks, Powell stated, "There might be a need for us to seek opportunities to come together and talk more often. So, yes, we've talked about that, but not in the form of some formal kind of new organization." [Ed. Note: This article was included in the US Department of Defense's Early Bird news service for July 31.]

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12. US-Australian Regional Security Cooperation

Reuters (Belinda Goldsmith, "AUSTRALIA PLAYS DOWN IDEA OF ASIA-PACIFIC NATO," Canberra, 07/31/01) and the Sydney Morning Herald (Craig Skehan and Hamish McDonald, "GANG OF FOUR LEAVES CHINA OUT IN THE COLD," 07/31/01) reported that Australian Foreign Minister Alexander Downer played down suggestions that Australia might set up a NATO-style Asia- Pacific security forum with the US, Japan and the ROK. He stated, "I don't think there's need for that in the first place and in the second place ... it would be perceived particularly by China as provocative." Downer said that the idea he discussed with US Secretary of State Colin Powell was to informally bring together officials, not necessarily ministers, from the four countries. He added, however, "It won't be worth doing it at the end of the day if it was going to cause enormous regional consternations. It is an idea that is designed just to bring a little bit more dialogue into the relationship." He noted, "My department had a chat with the Chinese embassy about it today. They didn't express any concern." Downer raised the proposal in talks with Japan's Foreign Minister Makiko Tanaka last week. Australian Defense Force Academy analyst Hugh Smith stated, "I wouldn't be surprised if the Chinese interpreted this proposal as a kind of U.S. conspiracy to contain China as they contained the Soviet Union during the Cold War. China is likely to play that card even if it isn't fundamentally anxious about the development." Alan Dupont, defense analyst from the Australian National University, argued, "China has been very sensitive about what the U.S. is doing with its relationship and this will feed the paranoia." [Ed. Note: This article was included in the US Department of Defense's Early Bird news service for July 31.]

The Sydney Morning Herald (Michael Millett, "JAPAN OPEN TO US PUSH FOR REGIONAL ALLIANCE," 08/01/01) reported that the Japanese Government said Tuesday that it was willing to consider a new process of security dialogue involving Japan, the US, Australia, and possibly the ROK. It stressed, however, that it was responding to overtures from Australia and the US and would reserve full judgment until given the details of any new consultative process. [Ed. Note: This article was included in the US Department of Defense's Early Bird news service for August 1.]

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13. Koizumi's Shrine Visit

The Associated Press ("JAPAN PRIME MINISTER TO VISIT SHRINE," Tokyo, 07/27/01) and The Washington Post (Kathryn Tolbert and Doug Struck, "AT JAPAN'S WAR SHRINE, WOUNDS UNHEALED," Tokyo, 07/28,/01, A13) reported that Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi said Friday he will visit the Yasukuni Shrine on August 15 despite Foreign Minister Makiko Tanaka's statement that she will try to discourage him from going. Koizumi stated, "As I have said before, there is no change. It is not a matter to be decided by the Cabinet." He added, "I will make the visit to mourn those who died in the war, from a feeling that we should never repeat war." He stated, "Even if I visit Yasukuni Shrine, the principles of Japan as a country of peace do not change at all. These include a nonnuclear policy and not using the military to solve international conflict. The most important thing is to demonstrate these principles by action." If Koizumi goes, he will be the first Japanese prime minister to do so since Prime Minister Yasuhiro Nakasone's visit in 1985 triggered anti-Japanese demonstrations in the PRC and other Asian nations.

II. Republic of Korea

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1. Kim Jong-il's Russian Visit

Joongang Ilbo (John Iams, "RUSSIA, N. KOREA TO SIGN STATEMENT," Moscow, 07/27/01) reported that a Russian Foreign Ministry official said Saturday that DPRK leader Kim Jong-il and Russian President Vladimir Putin plan to sign a declaration stating their shared outlook on world affairs at their coming meeting in Moscow. The declaration will build on one signed by Putin and Kim during the Russian president's high- profile visit to the DPRK last year, Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Losyukov was quoted as saying by the Interfax news agency. The statement would reflect "Moscow and Pyongyang's views on the international outlook for development of bilateral relations and approaches to key international issues," Losyukov said. Discussions may include the two countries' shared opposition to US plans for a national missile defense system, he said. Losyukov said that he doubted the DPRK's missile program would be on the official agenda for the talks, but the topic could be covered in the discussion of strategic stability. "We believe that this issue is a matter for U.S.-Korean relations," Losyukov said, adding that Moscow would welcome a resumption of dialogue between the US and the DPRK.

The Korea Herald (Shin Yong-bae, "KIM-PUTIN STATEMENT LIKELY TO INCLUDE OBJECTION TO U.S. MD," Seoul, 07/31/01) reported that ROK officials and analysts said Monday that DPRK leader Kim Jong-il and Russian President Vladimir Putin will likely manifest their opposition to US plans for a missile defense system in their joint declaration to be issued at the coming summit in Moscow. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Losyukov revealed Sunday that Kim and Putin plan to sign a declaration stating their shared outlook on world affairs at their summit talks. "This demonstrates that the two leaders will mention the controversial Missile Defense (MD) shield and the North's missile program in the statement," said Professor Yu Suk-ryul of the Institute of Foreign Affairs and National Security (IFANS), which is affiliated with the ROK Foreign Ministry.

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2. DPRK-Russian Economic Cooperation

Joongang Ilbo (Kim Hee-sung, "N.K.-RUSSIA TO SEAL RAILWAYS ACCORD," Moscow, 07/31/01) reported that ROK sources said on Monday that DPRK Chairman Kim Jong-il and Russian President Vladimir Putin would seal a railway accord on linking the Trans-Siberian Railway (TSR) and Trans- Korean Railway (TKR) during the upcoming summit in Moscow. The latest agreement reportedly included Russia's investment to modernize the DPRK railway. "The representatives from various nations including the North, South and Russia gave heavy focus on TKR-TSR issue and amid the talks Russia's side displayed strong will to make investment to modernize the North's railway," said Professor Kwon Won-sun of the Hankuk University of Foreign Studies who was at a meeting held from July 27-28.

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3. DPRK-Russian Military Trade

The Korea Herald (Hwang Jang-jin, "RUSSIA, N.K. MAKE PROGRESS ON HIGH- TECH WEAPONS TRADE," Seoul, 07/30/01) reported that an ROK government source said Sunday that Russia and the DPRK made significant headway in their negotiations for weapons trade before DPRK leader Kim Jong-il embarked on a trip across Russia. The DPRK has requested that Russia provide a number of high-tech weapons, including ground-to-air missiles, anti-aircraft radar navigation system, large warships, and advanced T-90 tanks, he said. "Ahead of Kim's visit, the two sides significantly narrowed their differences over the terms of their arms trade agreement," he added. Military cooperation is expected to be a key agenda item during a summit between Kim and Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow slated for this weekend.

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4. Russian Aid to DPRK

The Korea Herald (Kim In-gu, "RUSSIA TO SEND AID TO N.K. THROUGH TSR," Seoul, 07/30/01) reported that a report said Sunday Russia plans to use the Trans-Siberian Railway (TSR) to provide food aid to the DPRK in time for the 53rd anniversary of the founding of the DPRK government on September 9. Russia and the DPRK have pushed to send the humanitarian aid through the TSR in a symbolic move to link the Russian railway to an inter-Korean railroad, the Yonhap News Agency reported, quoting an unnamed diplomatic source.

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5. DPRK Threat to US

Joongang Ilbo (Ju Yong-jung, "US CONSIDERS NORTH KOREA AS BIGGEST MILITARY THREAT," Washinton, 07/31/01) reported that US Department of Defense Vice Secretary Paul Wolfowitz said in a CNN news program on Saturday that he viewed the DPRK as the biggest military threat to the US, while noting that the DPRK and Iraq are the most threatening countries in the world. He said that war could break out at the slightest provocation in the two regions. However, he put more emphasis on the threat from the DPRK saying that the US was under a horrendous threat from DPRK's conventional weapons.

The Korea Herald (Hwang Jang-jin, "HAN, POWELL AGREE TO CONTINUE PERSUADING N.K. TO RETURN TO TALKS," Moscow, 07/30/01) reported that DPRK leader Kim Jong-il said Thursday that US missile defense plans were unjustified and an attempt by the US at world domination, the ITAR-TASS news agency reported. "American agitation about the missile threat from our country is totally unjustified. It is little more than a clever way of concealing the ambition of those who want to establish global domination," Kim said before he left for a visit to Russia. "We support the position of Russia," Kim added.

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6. ROK-DPRK Electricity Cooperation

Joongang Ilbo (John Iams, "ELECTRICITY AID TO N.K. WITHHELD BY U.S. REQUEST," Moscow, 07/31/01) reported that ROK's efforts to provide the DPRK with electricity aid was put on hold by the US request, according to the latest report. The DPRK back in the fourth inter-Korean Ministerial meeting held last December asked the ROK to assist it with 500,000 kilowatts of electricity but the matter was dropped at least for a time being as US called for temporary halt, said vice Unification Minister Jeong Se-Hyun on Tuesday July 31. According to Jeong's explanation, the US call for suspension comes from its own problem in dealing with the DPRK's light-water reactor project. At the time, the US was busy with discussion to replace the existing light water reactors with thermal plants. It is largely speculated that US back then, may have figured that ROK extending helping hands to the DPRK at such point could weaken its own negotiating card with the DPRK. Jeong said that the US nowadays is reportedly discussing providing the DPRK with an additional 500,00 kilowatts of thermal plant aside from the promised 2 million kilowatts of light water reactors as part of an attempt to resolve the DPRK's nuclear and missile practices. He said however, that such matters should best remain for the two Koreas to resolve.

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7. US Lawmaker's Visit to DPRK

Joongang Ilbo (Kim Hee-sung, "BIDEN'S PLANNED TRIP TO N.K. SCRAPPED," Seoul, 08/01/01) reported that the attempt of four US Senators, including US Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Joseph R. Biden, to visit the DPRK has been postponed. Frank Januzzi, an advisor to Biden who was dispatched to Pyongyang last April in preparations for the expected trip, announced Tuesday that a letter has arrived from the DPRK that has asked for understanding in putting off the meeting due to the current absence of its leader.

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8. ROK Lawmaker's Visit to DPRK

The Korea Herald (Kim Hyung-jin, "MDP SENIOR LAWMAKER'S PLANNED N.K. VISIT INVITING CRITICISM FROM OPPOSITION," Seoul, 08/01/01) reported that the opposition Grand National Party (GNP) Tuesday continued to urge the ruling party to reveal the truth behind its senior member's planned visit to the DPRK in mid-August. "Few believe that Representative Hahn Hwa-kap of the ruling party will visit the DPRK to participate in a cross-border car rally commemorating the first anniversary of the inter- Korean summit," said Chang Kwang-geun, a vice spokesman for the GNP. Chang raised allegations that Hahn will go to Pyongyang as a personal envoy of President Kim Dae-jung with a mission to prepare DPRK leader Kim Jong-il's possible visit to Seoul. "Many people think that Hahn will promise to give 'tribute' (financial aid) to North Korea, to promote Chairman Kim's early visit to Seoul," the vice spokesman said.

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9. Inter-Korean Summit

Chosun Ilbo (Kim In-ku, "NK LEADER'S VISIT IMPOSSIBLE BEFORE SEPTEMBER," Seoul, 07/31/01) reported that a high-ranking government source said Tuesday that an indirect promise by Kim Jong-il to visit Seoul before September was unlikely to be kept given developments in June and July. He said that the DPRK is worrying about many problems including security in the ROK and is using the supply of power demand as a bargaining point. The source said that Kim's visit to Russia will continue until mid-August and Jiang Zemin will visit Pyongyang in September. In addition, US President George W. Bush will come to Seoul in October prior to the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit, and so Kim coming to the ROK will be later than these events.

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10. ROK-US Summit

The Korea Herald (Hwang Jang-jin, "BUSH MAY VISIT SEOUL BEFORE APEC," Seoul, 07/30/01) reported that an ROK official said Sunday that US President George Bush may make a two-day visit to Seoul before attending the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit to be held in the PRC October 20-21. Foreign Minister Han Seung-soo and US Secretary of State Colin Powell have tentatively agreed on the schedule for Bush's first trip to the ROK, he said. "The date and other details have not been fixed. But the U.S. officials proposed Bush stay in Korea for two days between October 17-19, right before going to Shanghai for the APEC meting," he said. During his stay, the official said that Bush will likely hold a second meeting with ROK President Kim Dae-jung to discuss issues regarding the DPRK and Northeast Asian security.

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11. ROK-US Talks

The Korea Herald (Hwang Jang-jin, "HAN, POWELL AGREE TO CONTINUE PERSUADING N.K. TO RETURN TO TALKS," Seoul, 07/30/01) reported that the ROK and the US reaffirmed Saturday that the two nations are continuing to cooperate closely to try to get the DPRK back to the negotiating table. US Secretary of State Colin Powell told his ROK counterpart Han Seung-soo that the US is ready to hold talks with the DPRK at any time and any place, without any strings attached, ROK officials said. During his call on Kim, Powell delivered the US's unwavering support for the ROK efforts to reconcile with the DPRK, presidential aides said.

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12. DPRK Food Shortage

The Korea Herald (Shin Yong-bae, "N.K. LIKELY TO FACE WINTER FOOD CRISIS DUE TO DROUGHT," Seoul, 07/30/01) reported that ROK analysts said Sunday that the DPRK is expected to avoid severe food shortages for the time being thanks to food aid from international organizations like the United Nations, but it is likely to face a food crisis this winter and next year because of the unusually long drought that hit the country in spring. According to a recent study jointly conducted by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and the World Food Program (WFP), the DPRK will have 4.76 million tons of grain available until October this year. The food cache will allow the DPRK to feed its people until October, a DPRK observer in Seoul said. As a result of the drought, the DPRK government is reportedly planning to reduce the individual daily ration of grain to just 150 grams from the 215 grams provided during the past eight months. "Any significant shortfall in aid would pose a threat to a deepening food crisis in the country next year," the agencies said in the report.

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13. DPRK Political Situation

Joongang Ilbo (Jay Solomon, "SUSPECTED NORTH KOREA PURGE MAY HINDER PEACE DISCUSSIONS," Seoul, 07/31/01) reported that as DPRK leader Kim Jong-il travels to Moscow, signs inside the DPRK point to a purge of key reform-minded officials. DPRK experts in the ROK, like those that once watched the Soviet Union, monitor events in the DPRK by analyzing the angle, size and frequency of photos of the DPRK's cadres. Kim Yong-sun has appeared publicly just once beside the country's supreme leader this year, according to a number of DPRK watchers. "It is highly likely that Kim Yong Sun and his team got ousted" because of the reversal in relations with the US, said Kim Dal-soon, a former ROK negotiator with the DPRK who has analyzed the DPRK for 30 years. Also missing from Kim Jong-il's side recently is Vice Marshal Cho Myong Rok, the military leader sent to the White House last September to meet US President Bill Clinton. DPRK experts caution that their methodology is not an exact science and that key DPRK officials have disappeared from sight only to reappear months later--either restored to health after an illness, or politically rehabilitated. "These men were Kim Jong Il's eyes to the outside world," said one senior ROK government official. A US diplomat in Washington who closely tracks the DPRK said that there is a fear that hard-liners in the DPRK military are reasserting a tougher stance toward the ROK and the US.

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14. DPRK-UK Relations

Joongang Ilbo (Ju Yong-jung, "NORTH ASKS FOR INVESTMENT AND CULTURAL EXCHANGE TO U.K.," Seoul, 08/01/01) reported that the DPRK, while asking Great Britain to make investments in its country, has also expressed interest in cultural exchange, Christopher Hum, British Deputy Under- Secretary of State for Foreign and Commonwealth Affairs said on Tuesday July 31. Hum upon returning from his four-day trip to the DPRK from July 28-31 and entering Seoul revealed the DPRK's interest in further opening up relations with Britain to Choi Song-hong, the ROK's vice Foreign Minister. Hum said that he met with the DPRK's vice-Foreign Minister Choe Su-hon and other related officials who called for extension of Britain's investment to the DPRK during his stay and reportedly responded that the Britain's side will take note of the request.

III. People's Republic of China

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1. Kim Jong-il's Visit to Russia

People Daily (Xinhua News Agency, Xie Rong, "KIM JONG-IL PAYS A VISIT TO RUSSIA," Moscow, 07/27/01, P3) reported that DPRK leader Kim Jong-il arrived in Russian Far East territory on July 26, at the invitation of Russian President Vladimir Putin. It was reported that Kim would follow his father's route when he visited Russia in the 1980s. Kim is expected to meet Putin on August 4 or 5, and discuss issues like bilateral relations, peaceful unification of the Korean Peninsula, the Anti- Ballistic Missile (ABM) Treaty and global strategic stability.

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2. PRC-US Relations

China Daily (Sun Shangwu, "OFFICIALS VOW TO REBUILD RELATIONS," Hanoi, 07/26/01, P1) reported that at the eighth annual meeting of the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) held in Vietnam, foreign ministers from the PRC and the US had their first face-to-face meeting on July 25 since the EP-3 plane incident in April. PRC Foreign Minister Tang Jiaxuan said that the constructive and cooperative relations developed by the PRC and the US are in the fundamental interests of the peoples of the two countries. Sino-US relations are now facing both challenges and opportunities, Tang was quoted by PRC Foreign Ministry spokesperson as saying. The US Secretary of State Powell was also quoted as saying that in the meeting that the US does not regard China as an enemy, and that the US does not need an enemy in any sense in this region.

People's Daily (Zhang Jinyu, "JIANG MEETS POWELL," Beijing, 07/29/01, P1) reported that on July 28 in the People's Great Hall, PRC President Jiang Zemin met with US Secretary of State Colin Powell, speaking highly of PRC-US relations. Jiang said that PRC-US relations are improving and that the PRC is expecting US President Bush's Beijing visit this fall. Powell echoed Jiang's comment on bilateral relations. He said the US wishes to establish constructive relations with the PRC. President Bush will visit the PRC, aiming to seek dialogue and cooperation, he added. Jiang reiterated the PRC's position on the Taiwan question, and Powell said that Bush will continue the one-China policy.

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3. PRC View of US Foreign Policy

People's Daily ("US GOVERNMENT'S FOREIGN POLICIES," 07/27/01, P7) carried a forum on US new Government's foreign policies and current China-US relations. In this forum, four PRC experts expressed their views on 1) the fundamental characteristics of the new US Government's foreign policies, 2) its differences and continuity compared with the previous Government, 3) its adjustment and change, and 4) China-US relations. They are Wang Jisi, Yan Xuetong, Su Ge and Chu Shulong. Elaborating on the fundamental characteristics, Chu described them as a strong Cold-War mentality, and an emphasis on traditional military and defense issues. Su's explanation is the US stresses power to strengthen its globally dominant position guided theoretically by political realism. Yan described the new Government's foreign policies as unilateralism, a fighting mentality and egoism. Wang argued that it is a rule that the new officials want to show differences from their predecessors, but after some time, the US foreign policy will return to its normal orbit. Yan's view is that Bush's foreign policies are similar with Clinton's on strategic goals, with both stressing the maintenance of the US global leadership role. However, Yan pointed out, they differ on means to achieve this goal. Chu's conclusion is that the Bush Government focuses more on external challenges posed by other countries while Clinton put more energy on the dialogue and engagement with other powers. Su said that the new Government inherited the global strategy and foreign policies of the previous governments. The only difference is the military security is more prominent in the new Government, Su added. Concerning the question of China-US relations, Su wrote that bilateral relations cannot be summarized as only "adversarial." In the background of globalization and multi- polarization, the containment policy towards the PRC does not work. Yan noted that economic cooperation and political cautiousness coexist between the two countries. Wang's evaluation is that a new Cold War between the PRC and the US can and should be avoided. He defined normal bilateral relations as mutually open, fighting but not divorcing. Chu pointed out that the ups and downs of bilateral relations in the past half a year shows that there exists a strategic problem of how to define bilateral relations.

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4. US-Japan-Taiwan Military Cooperation

PLA Daily (Jin Yinan, "DANGEROUS SIGNAL," 07/26/01, P1) carried a commentary on Taiwan authorities' proposed military cooperation with the US and Japan. Recently when interviewed by the US newspaper the Washington Times, the Taiwan leader expressed without any disguise his wishes. He said that he wishes the US, Japan and Taiwan to cooperate to deal with the PRC's missile threat, for Taiwan to join the US's missile defense system, and to launch joint military exercises with the US. The commentary warned that this is a dangerous signal to all Chinese, for the essence of the three points is to establish a US-Taiwan military alliance. Concerning this issue, he pointed out indirectly that currently there are some difficulties in establishing such a military alliance. However, he said, there is still much room for both sides to improve their military exchange and cooperation. A Taiwan "defense ministry" spokesperson also made remarks, saying that the Taiwan military has always stressed military exchange and cooperation with friendly countries. Taiwan will not rule out the possibility of holding joint military exercises with the US, he added. Purchasing arms from the US is only the first step, he said. The second step, the author pointed out, should be to conduct joint military exercises with the US. Besides, the author said, Taiwan authorities have taken many measures for military cooperation. The commentary criticized that the real danger of Taiwan lies in this so-called "son of Taiwan." He is dragging Taiwan Island and Taiwan people into an abyss and making it an ideal battlefield for some Americans. The article stressed however that the historical trend cannot be blocked. The world is seeing a courageous and indomitable new China from the Olympic bid. The People's Liberation Army is the insurmountable great wall for those separatists.

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5. PRC View of ASEAN

China Daily (Sun Shangwu, "CLOSER LINKS WITH ASEAN MEMBERS ESSENTIAL," Hanoi, 07/25/01, P1) reported that PRC Foreign Minister Tang Jiaxuan said on July 24 that the three East Asian countries--China, Japan and the ROK--should strengthen cooperation with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) to deal with challenges brought by globalization. Tang made this remark when addressing the foreign ministers' meeting of ASEAN, China, Japan and ROK (10+3). Tang pointed out that compared with other regions in the world, the cooperation among these Asian countries is still fledgling and a more effective relationship is required to meet the demands of regional development. He called for increased cooperation among the 10+3 countries and voiced the PRC's support for ASEAN to play an important role in such a partnership. Since the 10+3 summit meeting held last year in Singapore, China has greatly contributed to the promotion of cooperation in East Asia. The newsletter said that PRC Premier Zhu Rongji promised to add US$5 million to the China-ASEAN Cooperation Fund to support the development of human skills.

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6. US-Russian Talks over NMD China Daily (Xinhua News Agency, "RICE MEETS TOP RUSSIANS TO SECURE NMD BACKING," Moscow, 07/27/01, P12) reported that on July 26 in Moscow, US National Security Adviser Condoleezza Rice met with the Russian Defense Minister and Russian President respectively, seeking to capitalize on the burgeoning relationship between the US and Russian Presidents. Rice is pushing the US bid to dull Russia's opposition to the US missile defense program. After arriving in Moscow on July 25, Rice told Russia's ORT state-controlled television that the two presidents have established a very good personal relationship and a good basis for fighting "the new threats of our time." Russian President Vladimir Putin and his US counterpart George W. Bush appeared to have tempered the US-Russian confrontation over the plans with an agreement at a summit in Italy last weekend to link talks on missile defense with talks on reducing the overall number of strategic nuclear weapons. After meeting with Rice, Russian Defense Minister Ivanov said in televised remarks, "Russia and the US are looking for ways to create a new, even more serious and strong base for an international security system, including the key question--strategic stability, which consists of offensive and defensive weapons."

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7. Cross-Straits Talks

Jiefang Daily (Zhang Yue, "PRC: TALKING POINTS CAN COVER EVERYTHING AS LONG AS ONE-CHINA PRINCIPLE IS ADMITTED," Shanghai, 07/31/01) reported that the Chairman of the Cross-Straits Relations Association, Wang Daohan, on July 30 held talks with George Schwab, Chairman of the US Foreign Policy National Committee, and other guests who came to Shanghai to attend the "Sino-US Relations and Taiwan Question" seminar. Wang expressed his warm welcome for them, saying that dialogues and discussions among scholars can help to increase mutual understanding. Commenting on the Taiwan question, Wang reiterated the "peaceful reunification, one Country, two systems" basic policy proposed by Deng Xiaoping, and "Eight Pieces" proposed by Jiang Zemin. He stressed that as long as Taiwan authorities accept the one-China principle, talking points can cover anything, which fully presents our sincerity and flexibility. However, if they do not accept this basic principle, we have nothing to talk about, he added. Zhou Mingwei, deputy director of the Taiwan Office was reported to have attended the meeting.

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8. Japanese PM's Yasukuni Shrine Visit

People Daily (Xinhua News Agency, Zhang Huanli, "JAPANESE FOREIGN MINISTER CRITICIZES THE YASUKUNI SHRINE VISIT," Tokyo, 07/31/01, P3) reported that on July 30, when responding to questions on Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi's decision to visit the Yasukuni Shrine, Japanese Foreign Minister Makiko Tanaka told journalists that as the representative of national will, the Prime Minister should not visit the Yasukuni Shrine. She pointed out that even paying the visit as an individual conflicts with Article 20 of the Constitution. She also told journalists that she requested Koizumi not to pay this visit by introducing the efforts Japanese Government has done after the War to improve relations with the PRC and the ROK.

The NAPSNet Daily Report aims to serve as a forum for dialogue and exchange among peace and security specialists. Conventions for readers and a list of acronyms and abbreviations are available to all recipients. For descriptions of the world wide web sites used to gather information for this report, or for more information on web sites with related information, see the collection of other NAPSNet resources.
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Produced by the Nautilus Institute for Security and Sustainable Development in partnership with:
International Policy Studies Institute Seoul, Republic of Korea
Center for American Studies,
Fudan University, Shanghai, People's Republic of China
Monash Asia Institute,
Monash University, Clayton, Australia

Gee Gee Wong:
Berkeley, California, United States

Timothy L. Savage:
Berkeley, California, United States

Robert Brown:
Berkeley, California, United States

Kim Hee-sun:
Seoul, Republic of Korea

Hiroyasu Akutsu:
Tokyo, Japan

Peter Razvin:
Moscow, Russian Federation

Yunxia Cao:
Shanghai, People's Republic of China

Dingli Shen:
Shanghai, People's Republic of China

John McKay:
Clayton, Australia

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