NAPSNet Daily Report
monday, august 6, 2001

I. United States

II. Republic of Korea

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I. United States

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1. DPRK-Russian Joint Declaration

The New York Times (Michael Wines, "NORTH KOREAN LEADER VOWS TO CURB MISSILE PROGRAM," Moscow, 8/5/01) reported that DPRK leader Kim Jong-il repeated a promise on August 4 to suspend ballistic missile launchings until 2003. In an eight-point "Moscow Declaration" issued after a summit between Kim and Russian President Vladimir Putin, Kim said that his nation's missile program "does not present a threat to nations respecting North Korea's sovereignty." The joint declaration, issued at midday, was a striking exception in which Putin appeared to give moral support to the DPRK. The statement was the second iteration of that guarantee and the first such overture to US President George W. Bush. The declaration committed the DPRK and Russia to the "formation of a new fair world order" framed by international law and beyond the domination of any single power. However, it also pointedly committed them to combat international terrorism. The declaration also repeated that the 1972 Antiballistic Missile Treaty should remain the foundation of arms control efforts. Russia also expressed "understanding"--though not agreement--for the DPRK's demand that the US remove its forces from the ROK. Sergei Karaganov, deputy director of the Council of Europe, said this week on the Moscow news radio station Echo Moskvy, "South Korea is the more important partner of Russia, by force of at least economic considerations, than is North Korea. We're interested in military and technical cooperation with South Korea, first of all because they have money. Keeping in mind that there will be a process of reunification in the future, we should try to reap the maximum benefits." [Ed. note: This article was included in the US Department of Defense's Early Bird news service for August 6, 2001.]

Agence France Presse ("RUSSIAN PRESS SEES N. KOREA'S KIM AS PAWN IN US MISSILE TALKS," Moscow, 8/6/01) reported that Russia's press said on Monday that Russia was "putting up" with an extended visit by DPRK leader Kim Jong-il in a bid to persuade the US to drop its national missile defense plan. However, most newspapers agreed that Russia was unlikely to sway US resolve by portraying Kim as a man ready for negotiations and could itself benefit little from the leader's visit. The Vremya Novostei daily stated, "It is clear that Russia is not courting the Pyongyang leader out of love for him personally or for the Stalinist regime that he heads." The paper described Kim's visit as "surreal" and criticized the Russian authorities for agreeing to the DPRK requests to close off large swaths of central Moscow as a security precaution. Vremya Novostei reasoned, "Russia plans to use North Korea as a trump card in its ABM game with the United States." The paper added, "An agreement with North Korea is, if not hopeless, then very unrewarding." Other papers agreed that Kim's journey across Russia is aimed at the US but unpleasant for Russian officialdom nonetheless. The Kommersant business daily said, "The Kremlin thinks an agreement with North Korea will seriously back Russia's position in its argument with the United States about the need to preserve the ABM (treaty). It appears that for this cause, Moscow was ready to put up with all the North Korean's guests eccentricities." The Izvestia daily observed that Kim could indeed be using the visit to his own advantage and was in fact as eager to win favor from the US as he was from Russia. Izvestia said, "We should not forget that Kim is playing his game by trying to benefit from the disagreements between the more powerful nations, in case Korea's own ideology of self- reliance does not work."

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2. DPRK Space Launches

Knight Ridder News Service (Dave Montgomery, "N. KOREA'S KIM VISITS RUSSIAN FACILITIES," Moscow, 8/6/01) reported that DPRK leader Kim Jong-il visited the Korolyov mission-control center on the city's outskirts and inspected a top-secret factory that develops rockets used to launch commercial satellites on August 5. Russian President Vladimir Putin reportedly told Kim that Russia would be receptive to supplying satellite-launch rockets to the DPRK but would insist on payment, either from the DPRK or through assistance from another nation. The Interfax news agency quoted an unidentified diplomat as saying, "If the North Korean side shows such an interest and somebody else pays, we could take part in such launches." [Ed. note: This article was included in the US Department of Defense's Early Bird news service for August 6, 2001.]

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3. Alleged PRC Missile Sales to Pakistan

The Washington Times (Bill Gertz, "BEIJING ARMS PAKISTAN," 8/6/01) reported that the China National Machinery and Equipment Import and Export Corporation, known as CMEC, a state-run PRC company, has sent a dozen shipments of missile components to Pakistan. According to intelligence officials familiar with reports on the transfers, CMEC supplied the missile components for Pakistan's Shaheen-1 and Shaheen-2 missile programs, strategic missile systems capable of carrying nuclear warheads. A US spy satellite detected the latest shipment as it arrived by truck at the PRC-Pakistani border May 1. It was one of 12 missile component transfers sent by ship and truck detected by US intelligence agencies since the beginning of the year. The shipments violate the PRC government's pledge in November not to assist foreign missile programs that can be used to deliver nuclear warheads. A senior administration official said, "The problem is serious." The official said that the arms transfers could lead to the imposition of economic sanctions required under US proliferation laws. The official said that the US government has sent several formal protest notes to the PRC seeking an explanation and calling for a complete halt to the weapons transfers. The official said that the PRC was also asked to meet several specific conditions before US Secretary of State Colin Powell went to the Beijing, but "They have not met the conditions." US Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Joseph R. Biden, who is heading a congressional delegation to the PRC this week, said, "The idea that entering into the World Trade Organization and continued economic expansion between the United States and China can continue in the face of a policy different than curtailing and eliminating proliferation is naive and will not happen. My message to China will be that, absent an iron-clad notion that proliferation is not a problem, every other aspect of this relationship is damaged -- every other aspect." [Ed. note: This article was included in the US Department of Defense's Early Bird news service for August 6, 2001.]

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4. PRC Military Exercises

Deutsche Presse-Agentur ("CHINA'S MILITARY EXERCISES ENTER DECISIVE PHASE, REPORT SAYS," Beijing, 8/6/01) reported that the China News Service said that maneuvers involving the various branches of the PRC military in simulated attacks on an island across from Taiwan entered a decisive phase on August 3. The news agency said that after two months of separate exercises, PRC army, air and naval forces began coordinated mock attacks against the offshore island of Dongshang across from Taiwan. Newspaper reports in Hong Kong said that the troops of the Peoples' Liberation Army were engaged in their "largest, most advanced maneuvers." The reported coordinated maneuvers were preceded by a warning from PRC Defense Minister Chi Haotian, who said that the military has no intention of taking Taiwan back by military force. He also warned that foreign forces should not become involved in affairs relating to Taiwan. The official PRC news agency Xinhua said that the maneuvers are a test of new strategies involving precision attacks using electronic control systems and modern intelligence gathering. The agency said that past maneuvers focused on atomic, chemical and biological warfare. It said that the new attack strategy instead of being based mainly on tanks, armored vehicles, warplanes and paratroops, concentrates on the use of Stealth aircraft, as well as guided missiles and armored helicopters.

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5. PRC View of US-Australian Security Talks

Agence France Presse ("CHINA 'CONCERNED' ABOUT U.S.-JAPAN-AUSTRALIA SECURITY TALKS," Beijing, 8/6/01) reported that the PRC's official Xinhua news agency on August 3 quoted PRC Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhu Bangzao as saying that the PRC is concerned about the proposed regular multilateral security talks among the US, Japan and Australia. Zhu said that the PRC had "noticed" news reports on the issue, and was "concerned about it." Zhu said, "We believe that a dialogue mechanism of any kind should be aimed at maintaining the peace and stability of the Asia-Pacific region."

II. Republic of Korea

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1. DPRK-Russia Pact

The Korea Herald (Kim Ji-ho, "WITHDRAWAL OF U.S. TROOPS INCLUDED IN N.K.-RUSSIA PACT," Moscow, 08/06/01) reported ROK analysts said Sunday that the call for the withdrawal of US troops from the ROK included in the joint declaration signed by the leaders of the DPRK and Russia is seen as a bid to challenge the Bush administration's line foreign policy. In an eight-point "Moscow Declaration," issued after a summit between DPRK leader Kim Jong-il and Russian President Vladimir Putin, the DPRK insisted that there be "no delay" in the withdrawal of the US soldiers. Analysts said that the latest declaration represents the DPRK's intention to use the issue as leverage for its negotiations with the US. Russia sided with the DPRK apparently in a bid to cement the two nations' alliance in checking the United States' arms buildup plans, including the Missile Defense (MD) project, an analyst added. The Moscow Declaration included an agreement on connecting Russia's Trans-Siberian Railway with an inter-Korean rail link to be reconnected. Observers said that the agreement on the rail linkage reflects Moscow's hope to benefit from Asian-European expansions. Elsewhere, the Moscow Declaration includes more indirect and tempered criticism of the MD project than the statement that Kim and Putin issued after their talks in Pyongyang last year, the observers said. The declaration states that the 1972 Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) treaty is the cornerstone of strategic stability, without elaborating on the missile shield program of the US. [Ed. note: This article was included in the US Department of Defense's Early Bird news service for August 6, 2001.]

The Korea Herald (Hwang Jang-jin, "PUTIN-KIM PACT FEARED TO PROLONG STALEMATE," Seoul, 08/06/01) reported that ROK analysts said Sunday that US-DPRK relations are likely to remain stalled for the time being following the DPRK and Russia's formation of a joint front against the US missile defense plan and their raising of the issue of US forces stationed in the ROK. In the declaration, Russia expressed its understanding of the DPRK's demand for the withdrawal of US troops from the ROK. "In view of the fact that Russia expressed sympathy with the North's position, the deadlock between the United States and North Korea talks is likely be prolonged," said Suh Dong-man, professor of Sangji University. ROK government officials tried to play down the connotations of the US forces issue. "There was no agreement on the issue. North Korea explained its position once again and we view that Russia only expressed its understanding of why the North takes such a position," Deputy Foreign Minister Yim Sung-joon said.

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2. DPRK-EU Relations

Joongang Ilbo (Hwang Jang-jin, "N.K. AND EU TO BOOST TIES," Seoul, 08/06/01) reported that Glyn Ford, visiting member of the European Parliament and an expert on the Korean Peninsula, said that the European Union (EU) and the DPRK will continue to enhance bilateral ties through various exchange and cooperation in the future, reported the DPRK's Radio Pyongyang on Saturday August 4. Ford reiterated the importance of normalizing ties with EU in his interview with the state-run Korea Central News Agency during his latest nine-day trip to the DPRK that started from July 24.

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Produced by the Nautilus Institute for Security and Sustainable Development in partnership with:
International Policy Studies Institute Seoul, Republic of Korea
Center for American Studies,
Fudan University, Shanghai, People's Republic of China
Monash Asia Institute,
Monash University, Clayton, Australia

Gee Gee Wong:
Berkeley, California, United States

Timothy L. Savage:
Berkeley, California, United States

Robert Brown:
Berkeley, California, United States

Kim Hee-sun:
Seoul, Republic of Korea

Hiroyasu Akutsu:
Tokyo, Japan

Peter Razvin:
Moscow, Russian Federation

Yunxia Cao:
Shanghai, People's Republic of China

Dingli Shen:
Shanghai, People's Republic of China

John McKay:
Clayton, Australia

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