NAPSNet Daily Report
monday, february 25, 2002

I. United States


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I. United States


1. US Nuclear Policy

Reuters (Jonathan Wright, "US ADOPTS CLINTON POLICY ON USE OF NUCLEAR WEAPONS," Washington, 02/22/02) reported that the US Bush administration on Friday set out its conditions for threatening to use nuclear weapons against nonnuclear states, reasserting for the first time policies associated with its Democratic predecessors. State Department spokesperson Richard Boucher said that the US would not use nuclear weapons against a nonnuclear state unless the state attacked the US or its allies in conjunction with a nuclear state. The US also reserved the right to any kind of military response if it or its allies come under attack by a weapons of mass destruction, a phrase which embraces nuclear, chemical and biological weapons, he added. "This is a very important reiteration of US nuclear policy," said Daryl Kimball, executive director of the nonprofit Arms Control Association. "It's one of the rare instances where the Bush administration is following prior policy, rather than repudiating it." Boucher repeated language identical to the "negative security assurance" which former Secretary of State Warren Christopher gave in 1995.

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2. PRC Domestic Politics

Reuters ("CHINA WARNS CADRES OVER POLITICAL RIFTS AND TRICKS," Beijing, 02/25/02) reported that the PRC is has issued an official warning to cadres about spreading rumors, forming factions or back-stabbing, state media said on Monday. A commentary published on Sunday by the official Xinhua news agency also cautioned officials against dissent and media leaks. "We must resolutely oppose the duplicitous practice of agreeing in public but acting differently in private," the Xinhua commentary said. "The fabrication or broadcast of political rumours and statements that soil the image of the party and nation will not be permitted," it said. At least three of China's top leaders - President and party chief Jiang Zemin, Premier Zhu Rongji and parliament chief Li Peng -- are due to retire from party posts at the 16th Communist Party Congress this autumn to make way for fresh blood. The National People's Congress, China's parliament, will open its annual 10-day session next week.

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3. PRC's View of Bush PRC Trip

Agence France-Presse ("JIANG HAILS BUSH VISIT," 02/23/02) and Agence France-Presse ("BUSH VISIT POSITIVE FOR SINO-US TIES: CHINESE AMBASSADOR," 02/23/02) reported that PRC President Jiang Zemin hailed the visit by US President George W. Bush as "fruitful and substantial," saying that the two sides agreed to increase cooperation in the international anti-terror campaign. They also decided to reinforce high- level cooperation in several areas, including the economy and trade, energy, science and technology, environmental protection and AIDS prevention. In addition, agreement was reached to convene three joint meetings this year on economy, trade, and science and technology. But key officials conceded that the Taiwan question remained an unresolved issue. "We have agreed to further strengthen our exchanges and cooperation in various fields and strive to enrich the Sino-US constructive relationship of cooperation," Jiang stated. PRC ambassador to the US, Yang Jiechi, who accompanied Bush on a 30-hour trip to PRC that ended Friday, also said in the People's Daily that Sino-US ties improved during the visit to the PRC of US President George W. Bush.. "This would have a long-term positive influence on the improvement and development of Sino-US relations," Yang said. However, Bush's meeting with Jiang Thursday failed to yield a breakthrough deal under which the PRC would curb sales of missile technology or the easing of a standoff on free trade involving soybeans.

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4. US Defense Disinformation Policy

Reuters (Charles Aldinger, "BUSH VOWS U.S. WILL NOT LIE ON DEFENSE POLICY," Washington, 02/25/02) reported that after much public criticism over the Pentagon's new "strategic information" office, US President George W. Bush on Monday vowed that Washington would not lie to Americans on US defense policy. Bush made his promise as Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld ordered the Pentagon to study whether the office should be scrapped based on concern over reports that the military might use it to spread false information to foreign journalists and others to bolster US policy. When asked whether he had told Rumsfeld to get rid of the shadowy Office of Strategic Information, Bush responded, "I didn't even need to tell him this, he knows how I feel about this," the president said. "We'll tell the American people the truth and he was just as amazed as I was about reading some allegation that somehow our government would never tell the American people the truth."

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5. US Defense Budget

The Associated Press (Alan Fram, "PENTAGON: WAR COSTS $30B FOR YEAR," Washington, 02/25/02) reported that the war in Afghanistan and Pentagon to bolster security at home will cost a projected US$30 billion this year, far more than Congress has provided, according to Defense Department documents obtained by The Associated Press. President Bush and the US Congress have given the Pentagon US$17.4 billion for the war and the domestic fight against terrorism this fiscal year, which runs through September 30. The Defense Department estimate means that it believes it could need an additional US$12.6 billion over the next seven months for its operations in the US, Afghanistan or wherever it may be combating terrorists. "If operations continue to accrue as experienced to date, available funding will be exhausted by April or May," the 50- page report says. Bush is expected to ask lawmakers in March for extra money for the conflict in Afghanistan and efforts to improve domestic security, including at airports. According to the paper, of the US$17.4 billion provided to the Pentagon, UD$11.9 billion had been spent or committed to contracts as of Jan. 31. That includes about US$5.3 billion for Enduring Freedom, the military's name for the Afghanistan operation. Another US$5 billion has been spent for Pentagon activities at home, including US$1.9 billion to mobilize thousands of National Guard and Reserve troops and US$503 million for combat air patrols over some major US cities. Through January 25, the report says, other costs include us$61 million for humanitarian supplies; US$19 million for the costs of holding al-Qaida and Taliban prisoners at the US military base in Guantanamo Bay, Cuba; and us$100 million for an ambiguous category called "additional security assistance and defense cooperation expenses." Not included in the estimates is the cost of replacing the 18,000 bombs and missiles that have been used to date in the war. Replacing munitions used in the first six months of fighting in Afghanistan will cost an estimated US$1.1 billion, said a Defense Department official speaking on condition of anonymity. Bush has requested a US$379 billion Pentagon budget for the coming fiscal year, US$48 billion more than it is receiving this year.

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6. DPRK-US Relations

Reuters (Martin Nesirky, "NORTH KOREA CALLS BUSH 'KINGPIN OF TERRORISM,'" Seoul, 02/23/02) reported that the DPRK described US President George W. Bush on Saturday as a "typical rogue and a kingpin of terrorism" who visited the ROK this week just to "review plans for war." During his 40-hour visit to the ROK, Bush renewed an unconditional US offer for talks with the DPRK, but also criticized a lack of food and freedom in the DPRK, saying that the burden of proof was on DPRK leader Kim Jong-il to change. The DPRK responded to Bush's remarks by issuing a Foreign Ministry statement on Friday rejecting his call for talks and dismissing him as a "politically backward child" bent on using arms and money to change the the DPRK's communist political system. On Saturday, the official KCNA news agency followed up with a commentary that said that Bush's visit was aimed at drumming up anti- reunification forces and noted he had toured the southern side of the heavily fortified Demilitarized Zone that bisects the Korean peninsula. "It was, in a word, a war junket to finally examine the preparations for a war on the spot," KCNA said.

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7. Russia Nuclear Safety

The Associated Press (John J. Lumpkin, "REPORT: RUSSIA NUKES VULNERABLE," Washington, 02/25/02) reported that a new US intelligence report says Russia's nuclear material and power plants are vulnerable to theft and terrorism, despite US-aided efforts to increase security. The unclassified report to Congress was prepared by the National Intelligence Council, an analytical group that reports to Central Intelligence Agency Director George Tenet. Russian officials, including President Vladimir Putin have embarked on a campaign to assure the public that the country's nuclear materials are safe from terrorists. "Even with increased security measures, however, such plants almost certainly will remain vulnerable to a well-planned and executed terrorist attack," the report says. Russia's weapons-grade plutonium and uranium also remain vulnerable to theft, the report says. Some of these materials are housed at Ministry of Atomic Energy facilities and other Russian institutes. These facilities "typically receive low funding, lack trained security personnel, and do not have sufficient equipment for securely storing such material," the report says. Russia's actual nuclear weapons - numbering about 5,000 strategic warheads and an unspecified number of tactical devices - are reasonably secure, the report says. "An unauthorized launch or accidental use of a Russian nuclear weapon is highly unlikely as long as current technical and procedural safeguards ... remain in place," the report says. The primary threat is from an insider who tries to use or steal a weapon, especially if central political authority in Russia breaks down, the report says.


8. DPRK-Japan Spy Boat Incident

The Associated Press ("JAPAN LOOKS FOR SUSPECTED SPY WRECK," Tokyo, 02/25/02) reported that Japan's Coast Guard searched Monday for the wreckage of a suspected DPRK spy ship that sank after a firefight in the East China Sea more than two months ago. All 15 people aboard the ship are believed to have died in the December 22 incident, although only two bodies have been recovered. A sonar search of the area began Monday morning and will continue through Friday, said Hisako Nakabayashi, a Japan Coast Guard spokesperson. The water there is about 300 feet deep. After the ship is found, a remote-controlled camera will take pictures of it, she said. Japan still is considering whether to salvage the vessel.

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Produced by the Nautilus Institute for Security and Sustainable Development in partnership with:

BK21 The Education and Research Corps for East Asian Studies
Department of Political Science, Korea University, Seoul, Republic of Korea

Center for American Studies,
Fudan University, Shanghai, People's Republic of China

International Peace Research Institute (PRIME),
Meiji Gakuin University, Tokyo, Japan

Monash Asia Institute,
Monash University, Clayton, Australia

Brandon Yu:
Berkeley, California, United States

Timothy L. Savage:
Berkeley, California, United States

Kim Young-soo:
Seoul, Republic of Korea

Hibiki Yamaguchi:
Tokyo, Japan

Saiko Iwata:
Tokyo, Japan

Hiroya Takagi:
Tokyo, Japan

Peter Razvin:
Moscow, Russian Federation

Wu Chunsi:
Shanghai, People's Republic of China

Dingli Shen:
Shanghai, People's Republic of China

John McKay:< /a>
Clayton, Australia

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