NAPSNet Daily Report
thursday, july 18, 2002

I. United States

II. Republic of Korea III. Japan

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I. United States

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1. PRC Domestic Politics

Reuters (Jeremy Page, "JIANG'S POWER BID CLOUDS CHINA'S LEADERSHIP TRANSITION," Beijing, 07/18/02) reported that as PRC leaders gather in the seaside resort of Beidaihe to work out details of a leadership change, rumours are spreading fast that Jiang Zemin is making a play to stay on as head of the Communist Party. The idea is based largely on a state media campaign extolling his plan to modernize the party as well as reports of private letters and circulars sent to Central Committee members commending his leadership, academics and diplomats say. But while no one is certain of the outcome of the secretive Beidaihe meetings, many analysts play down the likelihood of Jiang keeping the country's top job after a five-yearly party congress in September or October. Jiang, 75, and other leaders had been expected to leave their party posts at the congress and their government jobs at a parliament meeting next year to make way for a new generation fronted by Hu Jintao, the current vice-president, as party chief. If Jiang does stay on, he would be breaking the unwritten rule that leaders should not seek office after 70, possibly prompting others, like parliament chief Li Peng, to do the same. That could undermine the ideal of staging the first orderly leadership succession of the Communist era. "There are rules," one senior PRC government official said when asked about the possibility of Jiang staying on. "If one person breaks the rules, then why can't everybody?"

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2. PRC Response to Pentagon Report

Agence France-Presse ("BEIJING RENEWS CRITICISM OF US REPORTS WARNING OF CHINA THREAT," 07/18/02) reported that a senior PRC foreign policy official has warned ties with the US could be "seriously affected" by a pair of recent official US reports labeling the PRC as a potential threat, state press said. Zeng Jianhui, chairman of the foreign affairs committee of China's parliament, the National People's Congress, urged US legislators to reject the studies. "I hope the US Congress will not legislate them, or else bilateral ties will be seriously affected," he was quoted as saying Wednesday by the China Daily newspaper. "I expect insightful US Congress members to recognize the possible consequences any further moves in that direction would bring, and do their best to avoid a detrimental outcome." "This report from beginning to end is full of outdated 'Cold War thinking' and in no way conforms to the facts," ministry spokesman Kong Quan said. Two days previously, the same spokesman had angrily insisted the PRC's military strength was defensive, after a Pentagon report suggested a recent modernization program was centered around the goal of forcibly retaking Taiwan.

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3. US-Taiwan Strategic Talks

Asia Pulse ("TAIWAN, US STRATEGIC TALKS OPEN IN MONTEREY," Taipei, 07/18/02) reported that a new round of the biannual "Monterey talks," considered the second channel of strategic communications between Taiwan and the US, has officially opened Tuesday in Monterey, California. The Taiwan delegation to the two-day meeting is being led by Vice Foreign Minister Ying-mao Kau and Vice Chief of the General Staff Ju Kai-san. Other members of the delegation include officials from the National Security Council, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Ministry of National Defense. US officials participating in the strategic dialogue include Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs James Kelly, Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security Affairs Peter Rodman and officials from the White House National Security Council and the American Institute in Taiwan.

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4. Cross-Straits Relations

The Associated Press ("TAIWAN WARNS CHINA NOT TO FORCE ABORTIONS FOR MAINLAND WOMEN MARRIED TO TAIWANESE," Taipei, 07/17/02) reported that some PRC women who are married to Taiwanese have been asked to have abortions when they visit home to comply with the PRC's one-child policy, a Taiwanese official said Thursday. At least six PRC women with Taiwanese husbands have reported that they were harassed or coerced by PRC officials who wanted them to have abortions or undergo surgeries to prevent further pregnancies, Taiwan's Straits Exchange Foundation said in a statement. Women with one child were asked to take a pregnancy test every three months to ensure they do not get pregnant again, according to the foundation, a semiofficial group that handles Taiwan's relations with PRC. Since the early 1990s, Taiwan has allowed mainlanders married to Taiwanese to settle on the island under a quota of 3,600 per year. About 150,000 Chinese have married Taiwanese, but only a small number have gained Taiwan residency rights under the strict quota system. To prevent forced abortions on the mainland, Taiwan has allowed Chinese spouses who are pregnant but have yet to gain residency rights to extend their six-month temporary stays on the island so they can deliver their babies on the island.

II. Republic of Korea

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1. DPRK-Libya Relations

Joongang Ilbo ("N.K.-LIBYA TO CLINCH INVESTMENT, TECHNOLOGY TREATY," Seoul, 07/18/02) reported that the DPRK and Libya inked a treaty that promised of encouragement and protection in bilateral investment and cooperation in science and technology sector Tuesday, reported Korean Central Broadcast Wednesday. At the meeting were Kim Yon-nam the visiting nominal head of DPRK accompanied by his aides; Foreign Minster Paek Nam-sun, Trade Minster Ri Kwang-gun, head of National Academy of Science Ri Kwang-ho, chairman of the Korean Committee for Cultural Relations with Foreign Countries Mun Jae-chol and DPRK ambassador to Libya Choe In-sop. Representing Libya was Abdulrahman Mohamed Shalgham, secretary of the General People's Committee for Foreign Relation and International Cooperation and other officials. The two countries also jointly signed an executive plan for treaty on information and culture from year 2002-2004.

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2. CDMA Technology in DPRK

Joongang Ilbo ("US OPPOSES PLAN FOR PHONES IN NORTH," Seoul, 07/18/02) reported that the US government is opposing the inter-Korean joint venture to develop the Code Division Multiple Access mobile phone system in the DPRK, an ROK government source said Wednesday. The ROK's Information and Communication Ministry last month announced a plan to carry out the communication business jointly with DPRK. "Washington said through diplomatic channels that the CDMA technology should not be transferred to the North," the ROK official said. "Since North Korea is on the list of state sponsors of terror, the US government controls exports to the North; the CDMA technology belongs to a US company, Qualcomm."

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3. ARF Meeting

The Koreaherald (Kim Ji-ho, "S.KOREA TO BROACH NAVAL CLASH AT ASIA-PACIFIC SECURITY FORUM," Seoul, 07/18/02) reported that the ROK plans to raise the issue of the recent inter-Korean gun battle on the West Sea during the upcoming ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) and call for the participating countries' cooperation in resolving the issue, officials said Wednesday. They said that the ROK government will make it clear during the forum that the DPRK is to blame for the first armed clash between the Koreas in three years. But the tone of our criticism will depend on actions taken by the North," a Foreign Ministry official said. Officials from 23 ARF member countries, including from the ROK and the DPRK, will attend the annual security forum in Brunei July 31. Foreign ministers from ROK, US, Japan and PRC are scheduled to gather for the meeting, while DPRK Foreign Minister Paek Nam-sun has yet to officially confirm his participation. Diplomatic watchers earlier predicted that the Brunei meeting will provide an opportunity for ROK to resume dialogue with DPRK and mediate relations between DPRK and US that were frozen in the wake of the naval clash.

III. Japan

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1. Japanese Logistical Support for US

Kyodo ("JAPAN MAY SUPPORT U.S. WAR ON IRAQ," Washington, 07/13/02) reported that Japan may continue to refuel US warships in the Indian Ocean in the event of a US attack on Iraq, diplomatic sources said. Although Japan believes an imminent US attack on Iraq is not likely, the Foreign Ministry and the Defense Agency have secretly discussed measures Japan should take if an attack were launched, the sources said. Japan is now considering whether to continue its refueling operation for US vessels engaged in the Afghanistan campaign on condition that the US pledges not to use the fuel for military operations against Iraq, they said. The diplomatic sources said Japan is also considering halting the refueling operation in the Indian Ocean and introducing new legislation that would enable the SDF to provide logistic support for a US military campaign in Iraq.

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2. Integration of Three Forces of SDF

The Japan Times ("NAKATANI REVEALS SHIFT TOWARD INTEGRATED SDF OPERATIONS," Tokyo, 07/13/02) reported that Japanese Defense Agency chief Gen Nakatani announced a shift in basic policy that will integrate in an "organic" manner the Ground, Maritime and Air Self-Defense Forces' operations so the three branches can perform their duties promptly and effectively. The concept is contained in an interim report compiled on Nakatani's instructions in April by Shoji Takegouchi, chairman of the Joint Staff Council (JSC), and the chiefs of staff of the three SDF branches. A task force under the JSC chairman is scheduled to compile a final report by the end of this year after further studying such issues as redefinition of the authority and responsibility of the JSC chairman and establishment of a new organization to support the JSC chairman, as well as education of personnel, exercises, communications and infrastructure for the integrated operations, Nakatani said. Under the policy shift, the JSC chairman would directly command elements of the three forces, a responsibility that currently rests with the chief of staff of each branch. Nakatani said the new goal is not intended to enhance the power of military officers over civilian officials in the agency. "Final decisions will be made by the Defense Agency chief and there is no problem from the viewpoint of civilian control (of the military)."

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3. Japan Development Aid

The Japan Times ("KAWAGUCHI RUFFLES FOREIGN MINISTRY FEATHERS," Tokyo, 07/17/02) reported that Japanese Foreign Minister Yoriko Kawaguchi is facing a new challenge to her reform efforts as the ministry's bureaucrats are rebelling against her decision to look to a rival ministry to fill a foreign aid commission. Takeo Hiranuma, minister of economy, trade and industry, said Tuesday that Kawaguchi has officially asked him to recommend able personnel from his ministry for the Foreign Ministry's Economic Cooperation Bureau. However, several bureau heads and other senior officials of the Foreign Ministry oppose the idea, saying the Economic Cooperation Bureau, which handles official development assistance -- the core of Japan's diplomacy -- should be headed by a career diplomat. The fact that Kawaguchi is a former trade ministry bureaucrat is also riling some Foreign Ministry bureaucrats, one official said.

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4. A-Bomb Exhibition at UN

The Asahi Shimbun ("A-BOMB EXHIBIT CALLED TOO GRUESOME FOR DISPLAY AT U.N.," 07/16/02) reported that the UN has canceled a scheduled exhibition about the 1945 atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki at its headquarters in New York this fall, saying some photographs offered for display are "too gruesome." Officials of the Japan Confederation of A- and H-Bomb Sufferers Organizations (Hidankyo), which organized the exhibits, received word from UN headquarters that the exhibition would not go ahead because some people might find it distressing. The exhibition was to have been held at the conference hall lobby of UN headquarters from September 18 through October 27. The display items included 80 photographs of Hiroshima and Nagasaki immediately after the bombings as well as scenes of hibakusha (A-bomb survivors). A Hidankyo delegation visited UN headquarters in May to discuss its proposals for the exhibition. UN officials cautioned that gruesome photos should be avoided, since children would view the exhibits. Hidankyo officials considered replacing some of the more horrific shots, but decided to stick to the original exhibit plan on grounds the significance of the presentation would suffer without an "in your face" approach.

The Asahi Shimbun (Shinji Fukushima, "U.N. SAYS A-BOMB EXHIBIT NOT CANCELED," New York, 07/17/02) reported that contrary to an earlier report, a UN official explained Monday that the UN has not canceled a scheduled exhibition about the 1945 atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki but merely postponed it. An official was at pains to stress it was not a cancellation, nor a refusal, but a postponement. The official said there was "nothing political" behind the decision. It was simply a matter of too many display items to fit into the space available. However, officials of the Japan Confederation of A- and H-Bomb Sufferers Organizations (Hidankyo), organizers of the exhibit, said they received an e-mail from the UN on July 11, informing them the project was canceled.

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Ilmin Internationl Relations Institute
BK21 The Education and Research Corps for East Asian Studies
Department of Political Science, Korea University, Seoul, Republic of Korea

Center for American Studies,
Fudan University, Shanghai, People's Republic of China

International Peace Research Institute (PRIME),
Meiji Gakuin University, Tokyo, Japan

Monash Asia Institute,
Monash University, Clayton, Australia

Brandon Yu:
Berkeley, California, United States

Timothy L. Savage:
Berkeley, California, United States

Kim Young-soo:
Seoul, Republic of Korea

Hibiki Yamaguchi:
Tokyo, Japan

Saiko Iwata:
Tokyo, Japan

Hiroya Takagi:
Tokyo, Japan

Peter Razvin:
Moscow, Russian Federation

Wu Chunsi:
Shanghai, People's Republic of China

Dingli Shen:
Shanghai, People's Republic of China

John McKay:
Clayton, Australia

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