NAPSNet Daily Report
wednesday, july 31, 2002

I. United States

II. Japan

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I. United States

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1. US Test Ban Treaty

The Associated Press (Matt Kelley, "TEST-BAN TREATY WOULD HAVE HELPED, NOT HURT, U.S. NATIONAL SECURITY, SCIENTIFIC PANEL SAYS," Washington, 07/31/02) reported a National Academy of Sciences panel concluded in a report released Wednesday that the US does not need to perform nuclear explosion tests to reliably maintain its atomic weapons. The report rebutted several arguments against the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty, which the Republican-controlled Senate rejected in 1999. The panel said the United States would be more secure under the treaty, even if some nations try to cheat, than if a test ban was not in force. The United States has held to a self-imposed nuclear testing moratorium since 1992. President George W. Bush has said there is no immediate need to resume testing. Panel members said nuclear tests are not needed to ensure the safety and reliability of the weapons stockpile because most of the 6,000 or so parts of a nuclear weapon can be tested without a nuclear explosion. Nearly all past US tests have been to develop new weapons designs, the scientists said. "The United States never relied primarily or even heavily on nuclear tests to determine safety and reliability," said John Holdren, a Harvard University professor who was chairman of the panel. The report rejected the main criticisms of the treaty: that the United States needs to have periodic tests to maintain its arsenal and that the pact would do nothing to curb the nuclear ambitions of countries such as Iraq, Iran and the DPRK. "The worst-case scenario under a no-CTBT regime poses far bigger threats to US security - sophisticated nuclear weapons in the hands of many more adversaries - than the worst-case scenario of clandestine testing in a CTBT regime," the report said.

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2. ROK Domestic Politics

Agence France-Presse ("SOUTH KOREA'S PARLIAMENT VETOES FIRST WOMAN PREMIER," 07/31/02) reported that the ROK's parliament vetoed the appointment of the country's first female prime minister after bitter wrangling mired in allegations of financial impropriety and sexism. National Assembly Speaker Park Kwan-Yong said that of 244 votes cast, 142 lawmakers voted against appointing Chang Sang and 100 voted for her. There was one abstention and one ballot was declared invalid. "I declare the motion for the approval of the appointment of Chang as prime minister has been voted down," Park said. The decision was seen as a blow to President Kim Dae-Jung who named Chang, then the dean of the prestigious Ewha women's university, as premier on July 11. The president must now find a substitute for her. Chang, 63, has been the target of an outspoken opposition campaign that she fabricated her academic background, engaged in real-estate speculation and was disloyal to her homeland. Chang had denied any wrongdoing during the two-day confirmation hearing in parliament which ended Tuesday. But lawmakers pressed on alleging that Chang encouraged her son, who was born in the United States in 1973, to drop South Korean nationality to dodge military service. Lawmakers also alleged that she improperly made speculative investments in real estate, including apartment houses and land in Seoul and its outskirts in the late 1980s. Chang was further accused of mistating her academic qualifications by saying she got a doctoral degree from Princeton University in the United States. She actually graduated from Princeton Theological Seminary, and has said her office made a translation mistake on her CV.

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3. Japan Domestic Politics

The Associated Press (Hans Grimel, "JAPAN'S "SCANDAL PARLIAMENT" ENDS WITH KEY KOIZUMI BILLS STILL UNTOUCHED," Tokyo, 07/31/02) reported that Japanese lawmakers wrapped up a 192-day session of Parliament Wednesday that was widely panned as marred by scandals and low on the reforms Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi had promised to end the country's economic slump. "We have no choice but to award it a failing grade," Japan's leading daily, the Yomiuri Shimbun, said of this year's session. "It was not a successful session at all," said Kenichi Suzuki, spokesman for the opposition Democratic Party. "Koizumi gave up tackling real reforms and the reforms he did make don't move the country forward." Koizumi has passed several economic packages this year, including two anti-deflation bills and the partial privatization of the country's postal service. He also passed a reform of the state medical system to make sure it remains fully funded. But the economy remains stagnant, banks are still saddled with billions of dollars in bad loans and unemployment hovers at a near-record high of 5.4 percent.

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4. Russia-PRC Warplane Sale

Reuters ("RUSSIA REPORTED TO SELL CHINA 40 MODERN WARPLANES," Moscow, 07/31/02) reported that Russia plans to sell the PRC 40 of its top of the range Su-30MK warplanes in a US$1.8 billion deal, the largest such sale this year, media reports said on Tuesday. Although the Russian arms exporter Rosoboronexport declined to comment, the Vedomosti daily quoted industry sources as saying the PRC was seeking to buy the naval version of the twin-seater fighter. If the US$1.8 billion figure was confirmed, "it would be the biggest airplane deal struck by Rosoboronexport this year", the paper added. Russia sold 30 Su-30s fighters to China in 1999 for some US$2 billion. A further contract was sealed two years later, although the exact number of warplanes involved in the latter deal was not announced. Russian officials say the PRC air force also has around 80 Russian-built Su-27s, the type of aircraft which crashed at a Ukraine air show at the weekend, killing 83 spectators. It also has a license to build 140 others from scratch or from kits.

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5. PRC on US-Taiwan Relations

Reuters (Brian Rhoads, "CHINA SERIOUSLY CONCERNED ABOUT U.S.-TAIWAN TIES," Brunei, 07/31/02) reported that the PRC told the US on Wednesday it was "seriously concerned" about the US increasing military contacts and arms sales to Taiwan. Foreign Minister Tang Jiaxuan also told US Secretary of State Colin Powell in talks in Brunei that the PRC was improving export controls in response to US charges that the PRC was not doing enough to stem the flow of weapons of mass destruction. In spite of the disagreements, Foreign Ministry spokesman Liu Jianchao described the 50-minute meeting between Tang and Powell as positive and said both sides were looking forward to President Jiang Zemin's visit to the US later this year. Afterwards, Tang stated, "The Chinese side hopes that the U.S. would stop arms sales to Taiwan and any governmental and military exchanges and refrain from sending the wrong signals to pro-independence elements in Taiwan."

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6. Cross-Strait Relations

Reuters ("CHINA URGES TALKS ON 'THREE LINKS' WITH TAIWAN," Beijing, 07/31/02) reported that the PRC has told Taiwan to quit making excuses and open private-sector talks with the PRC as soon as possible on opening direct trade, transport and postal links, the People's Daily newspaper said on Wednesday. "We hope the Taiwan authorities will not seek further excuses or obstruct and interfere with the 'three links'," it said.

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7. DPRK-US Relations

The Associated Press (Patrick McDowell, "ASIAN SECURITY FORUM OPENS WITH POWELL MEETING NORTH KOREAN MINISTER," Bandar Seri Begawan, 07/31/02) and (George Gedda, "US WEIGHS RESUMING SECURITY DIALOGUE WITH NORTH KOREA," Bandar Seri Begawan, Brunei, 07/31/02) reported that the Bush administration is weighing a resumption of dialogue with the DPRK after Secretary of State Colin Powell held the first face-to-face US-DPRK meeting since President Bush labeled the DPRK part of an "axis of evil." Powell's meeting with DPRK Foreign Minister Paek Nam-sum occurred midmorning when he went to the delegates' lounge at the conference of Pacific rim nations. Powell asked an aide to find Paek, and they were soon sipping coffee together, the first high-level US-DPRK contact since Secretary of State Madeleine Albright visited Pyongyang 21 months ago. "We have agreed to resume the dialogue between the DPRK and the US," Paek told reporters hours later. "It was a good meeting, a short meeting over coffee, and I told him that we should stay in touch and see how to pursue our dialogue." Paek seemed pleased with the meeting, saying, "Everything went satisfactorily."

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8. DPRK-Japan Relations

Reuters ("JAPAN, N.KOREA TO HOLD MEETINGS IN AUGUST," Tokyo, 07/31/02) reported that Japan's Foreign Minister Yoriko Kawaguchi and her DPRK counterpart Paek Nam-sun agreed on Wednesday that their two countries would re-start stalled senior level talks in August, Japanese media reported. Wednesday's talks came hours after Japanese police and coast guard officials inspected a DPRK ship docked near Tokyo following allegations that a crew member had used a counterfeit bill to buy a used bicycle. Paek also met US Secretary of State Colin Powell on Wednesday as efforts to ease inter-Korean tensions stole the spotlight at the forum in Brunei.

The Associated Press (Yoo Jae-suk, "NORTH KOREA AND JAPAN AGREE TO RESUME TALKS ON ESTABLISHING TIES," Bandar Seri Begawan, 07/31/02) reported that Japan and the DPRK agreed Wednesday to restart stalled talks in August on establishing diplomatic relations, their foreign ministers said. The announcement followed a meeting between Japanese Foreign Minister Yoriko Kawaguchi and DPRK Foreign Minister Paek Nam Sun - the first between the countries' top diplomats in two years. Senior officials from both countries will meet in August to "discuss issues concerning the normalization of bilateral relations," the ministers said in a statement. "It is vitally important for both sides to strive earnestly to normalize our relations at the earliest possible time," Kawaguchi told reporters after the talks. Kawaguchi said she urged Paek several times in the talks to make strong efforts to resolve "security and humanitarian issues" between the two countries. Paek also briefed Kawaguchi about his informal meeting earlier Wednesday with US Secretary of State Colin Powell.

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9. ROK-DPRK Naval Clash

Reuters (Paul Eckert, "S.KOREA DENIES NORTH CLAIM OF NAVAL INCURSION," Seoul, 07/31/02) reported that the ROK swiftly denied an accusation by the DPRK navy on Wednesday that southern naval ships had intruded into northern waters in what the DPRK said was a bid to derail ties. In a statement issued two days before delegates from the Koreas are scheduled to hold their first talks in months, the DPRK navy said that the ROK naval ships had violated the DPRK's Yellow Sea maritime border twice in two days. "The incidents were premeditated provocations committed by the South Korean military authorities to spoil the new atmosphere of dialogue between the North and the South and bring the situation to the brink of confrontation," said the (North) Korean People's Army (KPA) Navy. The KPA Navy statement, carried on the official Korea Central News Agency (KCNA), said two southern ships entered the DPRK's territorial waters on Wednesday, following four ships leading fishing boats that intruded on Tuesday. The ROK's defense ministry quickly denied the accusation, saying, "It appears that the North is trying to make this into an NLL issue again."

II. Japan

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1. Japanese Military Emergency Bills

The Asahi Shimbun ("INDIVIDUAL VS. NATIONAL NEEDS: RIGHTS COULD FALL IN MILITARY BILLS," Tokyo, 07/26/02) reported that freedom of religion and thought might fall by the wayside under bills now in the Diet to guard the nation from military attack. Yasuo Fukuda, the chief Cabinet secretary defined the administration's position on rights issues for the first time last Wednesday in a Lower House special committee session deliberating the military emergency legislation. Fukuda said there could be situations in which Japanese could not cite religious beliefs or ideologies as grounds to refuse to cooperate with Self-Defense Forces (SDF). "Those restrictions would not violate Article 13 of the Constitution (which stipulates that all people should be respected as individuals) as long as the restrictions serve a higher purpose of public welfare, such as maintaining the security of the nation and its people," Fukuda said. Seiji Maehara (Democratic Party of Japan) asked if that interpretation could be extended to expropriation or removal of churches, shrines or temples during an SDF action. Osamu Tsuno, director-general of the Cabinet Legislation Bureau, said it could if the legislation is adopted.

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2. US-Japan Relations on Technology Transfer

The Asahi Shimbun ("U.S. WISH COULD SLOW ROCKET PROGRAM," 07/27/02) reported that US pressure on Japan to review export restrictions on its rocket technology could slow Japanese rocket-development program, sources say. The US wants to update a bilateral accord on sharing space technology development signed in 1969. That agreement specified Japan would not transfer technology it imports from the US to a third nation without US approval. The US wants to revise the technology transfer agreement to address components for the H-2A and M-5, more powerful rockets that are the new workhorses of Japan's domestic rocket development. Japan depends on US suppliers for 24 components in the H-2A engine, as well as some M-5 rocket parts. If the delays persist, scheduled launches that use those rockets, in fiscal 2004 and beyond, could be postponed, the sources said. The US government has pressed for the revisions for the past two years, but Japan has resisted, saying its own technology export controls are sufficient.

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3. Japan's Foreign Ministry Reform

The Japan Times ("OUTSIDE EXPERT NAMED MINISTER AT WASHINGTON EMBASSY," 07/27/02) reported that Japanese Foreign Minister Yoriko Kawaguchi on Friday named Naoyuki Agawa, a professor of law at Keio University, as minister in charge of public relations at the Japanese Embassy in Washington as part of her efforts to carry out reforms by appointing outside experts. Agawa, 51, is graduated from Georgetown University Law School and is a member of a private advisory panel on Foreign Ministry reform. Kawaguchi also said that by the end of August she will name someone from the private sector as head of the division that evaluates foreign aid projects at the Economic Cooperation Bureau, adding she would name 10 people from outside the ministry to senior posts by summer.

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4. Japan-PRC Relations

Kyodo ("CHINESE FORCED LABORERS SURVEY RUINS OF NAGASAKI COAL MINE," Nagasaki, 07/28/02) reported that two former Chinese forced laborers on Saturday surveyed the ruins of a coal mine on Hashima Island, southwest of Nagasaki, where they worked during World War II. The two, the relative of another forced laborer and a Chinese researcher who specializes in the issue came to Japan at the invitation of a group of researchers at Nagasaki University. About 1,000 Chinese were forced to work in four coal mines in Nagasaki Prefecture during World War II, the group said. Many of them died from illnesses and maltreatment, while others were killed when the US dropped the atomic bomb on Nagasaki on August 9, 1945, because they were being held in a prison near ground zero, according to the group.

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5. Japan-Uzbekistan Relations

The Japan Times ("JAPAN, UZBEKISTAN TO PURSUE AVIATION PACT, ANTITERROR STEPS," Tokyo, 07/30/02) reported that Japan and Uzbekistan agreed Monday to strengthen economic and political cooperation by launching negotiations over a bilateral aviation pact, taking measures against terrorism and working toward the reconstruction of Afghanistan. Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi and visiting Uzbek President Islam Karimov mark the signing of a joint partnership statement at the Prime Minister's Official Residence. Karimov praised the swift response of the Maritime Self-Defense Force in sending its ships to the Indian Ocean to offer logistic support in the wake of the September 11 terrorist attacks in the US. Japan should play a more active security role both in Central Asia and globally, the official quoted Karimov as saying.

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Produced by the Nautilus Institute for Security and Sustainable Development in partnership with:

Ilmin Internationl Relations Institute
BK21 The Education and Research Corps for East Asian Studies
Department of Political Science, Korea University, Seoul, Republic of Korea

Center for American Studies,
Fudan University, Shanghai, People's Republic of China

International Peace Research Institute (PRIME),
Meiji Gakuin University, Tokyo, Japan

Monash Asia Institute,
Monash University, Clayton, Australia

Brandon Yu:
Berkeley, California, United States

Timothy L. Savage:
Berkeley, California, United States

Kim Young-soo:
Seoul, Republic of Korea

Hibiki Yamaguchi:
Tokyo, Japan

Saiko Iwata:
Tokyo, Japan

Hiroya Takagi:
Tokyo, Japan

Peter Razvin:
Moscow, Russian Federation

Wu Chunsi:
Shanghai, People's Republic of China

Dingli Shen:
Shanghai, People's Republic of China

John McKay:
Clayton, Australia

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