|
|
||
|
I. United States1. ROK-Japan on DPRK Multilateral Resolution The Associated Press (Jae-Suk Yoo, "SOUTH KOREA ASKS JAPAN TO HELP BRING NORTH KOREA TO MULTILATERAL TALKS," Seoul, 03/31/03) and the Japan Times (Kanako Takahara, "BILATERAL TALKS CENTER ON PYONGYANG," 03/31/03) and the Associated Press (Jae-Suk Yoo, "SOUTH KOREA ASKS JAPAN'S HELP WITH NORTH," Seoul, 03/31/03) reported that the ROK has asked Japan to help bring the DPRK to multilateral talks to defuse tension over the communist country's suspected nuclear weapons program, the presidential office said Monday. The ROK's Foreign Minister Yoon Young-kwan made the request to his Japanese counterpart Yoriko Kawaguchi in Tokyo on Sunday, the presidential Blue House said in a news release. The DPRK insists on bilateral talks, saying the nuclear dispute is only with the US. The US wants to resolve the issue through talks involving Russia, the PRC, Japan and the ROK. "South Korea and Japan have agreed that North Korea must take positive actions to swiftly resolve the nuclear issue and (they agreed) to continuously urge North Korea not to exacerbate the situation," the news release said. On Monday, Kawaguchi urged the US toward diplomacy with the DPRK, a Foreign Ministry spokeswoman said on condition of anonymity. Kawaguchi told Adm. Thomas Fargo, commander of the US Pacific Command, that Japan "cannot permit nuclear development" in the DPRK and said that the DPRK must be told it should not do anything to further destabilize regional security. Coinciding with Yoon's trip, South Korean President Roh Moo-hyun's top security adviser, Ra Jong-il, left for Moscow and Beijing on Sunday to discuss the crisis. Russia and the PRC have said they support a Korean Peninsula free of nuclear weapons. 2. ROK Gas Pipeline Diplomacy? Reuters (Park Sung-woo "SOUTH KOREA TO PUSH GAS-FOR-PEACE DEAL WITH NORTH," Seoul, 03/31/03) reported that the ROK has proposed gas be piped from Russia to energy-starved DPRK in return for a verifiable end to its nuclear plans, the ROK's security chief told the Financial Times in an interview published on Monday. Ra Jong-yil, President Roh Moo-hyun's national security adviser, said the proposal was at an early stage and needed to be discussed with allies and the DPRK. "Gas could be drawn from either Irkutsk (Siberia) or Sakhalin (east Russia)," the newspaper quoted Ra as saying. Ra, who is scheduled to visit the PRC and Russia this week, said the gas could fuel thermal power stations and provide a peaceful alternative to the DPRK's nuclear program, which Washington has said was aimed at producing atomic weapons. The Financial Times said such an international deal, to be put forward by the ROK government, could halt the DPRK's nuclear weapons program. There was no immediate comment from the ROK presidential Blue House. Deputy Energy Minister Kim Dong-won stated that he was not aware of the gas-for-peace proposal. "There has been no discussion over the deal," he said. A gas-for-peace deal with the DPRK would replace the failed 1994 Agreed Framework, under which the US and its allies supplied the DPRK with heavy fuel oil and agreed to build two proliferation-resistant nuclear reactors. 3. DPRK on Weapons Inspections CNN News ("NORTH KOREA REFUSES NUKE INSPECTIONS," Pyongyang, 03/31/03) and the Washington Post (Doug Struck, "CITING IRAQ, NORTH KOREA SIGNALS HARD LINE ON WEAPONS ISSUES," Tokyo, 03/31/03) reported that the DPRK signaled today it is learning a lesson from the war in Iraq -- though not the one the Bush administration had wanted. The government's official party newspaper said that Iraq's experience proves that the DPRK must not submit to international nuclear inspectors or agree to disarm. The DPRK "would have already met the same miserable fate as Iraq's had it compromised . . . and accepted the demand raised by the imperialists and its followers for nuclear inspection and disarmament," said a commentary in the ruling Korean Workers' Party newspaper, Rodong Shinmun. "It is clear that the destiny of Iraq is at stake due to its concession and compromise," the paper said. "No one should expect [North Korea] to make any slightest concession or compromise." 4. Kim Jong-il Missing? BBC News ("NORTH KOREAN LEADER 'MISSING,'" 03/31/03) and the New York Times (James Brooke, "NORTH KOREA WATCHES WAR AND WONDERS WHAT'S NEXT," Seoul, 03/31/03) reported that DPRK leader Kim Jong-il has not appeared in public for 47 days, according to South Korean monitors. The so-called "Dear Leader" was last seen in public on 12 February, when he visited the Russian embassy in Pyongyang. The secretive Kim often disappears from public view. But his failure this week to attend the DPRK's annual parliament session - for the first time in six years - has prompted a flurry of speculation. Some Korea-watchers suspect he could be holed up with top military officials, possibly at a resort in the country's north, following the war in Iraq. According to a high-ranking North Korean defector to the South, Jo Myong-chol, the DPRK appeared to be on a war footing. North Korean military leaders, including Vice-Marshal Jo Myong-rok, Kim's deputy on the National Defence Commission, and Kim Yong-chun, chief of the army general staff, also stayed away from the parliament session, Yonhap news agency said. However, the reason for Jo's absence may have been illness. Kim's disappearance from public view is the longest since February 2001, when he was not seen for 35 days. 5. Japan and US-Led War on Iraq Reconstruction The Japan Times ("JAPAN CAN HELP REBUILD IRAQ WITHOUT NEW LAW: KAWAGUCHI," 03/31/03) reported that Japan can participate, under the current legal structure, in minesweeping operations to help reconstruct a postwar Iraq, Foreign Minister Yoriko Kawaguchi said Sunday. "Even without a new law, operations such as removing mines are possible," Kawaguchi said on an NHK television program. She was referring to new legislation being debated that would authorize Japan's involvement in the postwar reconstruction of Iraq. The government is expected to submit the reconstruction support bill to parliament after the US-led war against Iraq ends. The bill would allow the deployment of the Self-Defense Forces to Iraq for such operations as transportation, medical care, removing weapons of mass destruction, aiding refugees and engineering, according to Liberal Democratic Party leaders. The LDP has also said the SDF may participate in minesweeping operations in the Persian Gulf. Kawaguchi said reconstruction under the framework of the United Nations is desirable. "International coordination is necessary and the involvement of the U.N. is important," she said. The foreign minister also said a resolution on the reconstruction of Iraq, if adopted by the U.N. Security Council, would be "meaningful." 6. US Pakistan Economic Sanctions Agence France-Presse ("US SLAPS SANCTIONS ON PAKISTAN, NORTH KOREA OVER ALLEGED NUKE LINKS," Washington, 03/31/03) and the Washington Post (Peter Slevin, "US Imposes Sanctions After Missile Sale," 03/31/03) reported that the Bush administration, attempting to squeeze the DPRK and the buyers of its military hardware, will impose economic sanctions on a Pakistani company accused of purchasing missiles from the Pyongyang government, officials said yesterday. In targeting the AQ Khan Nuclear Research Institute along with the DPRK firm that reportedly delivered the Nodong missiles, the administration is also delivering a warning to Pakistan, whose help is deemed essential to the battle against the al Qaeda terror network. One official described a significant debate within the administration about the wisdom of sanctioning the Pakistani government of President Pervez Musharraf while the two countries conduct joint operations in search of Osama bin Laden and his lieutenants. 7. PRC Anti-War Protests CNN News (Willy Wo-Lap Lam, "BEIJING CURBS ANTIWAR PROTESTS," Hong Kong, 03/31/03) reported that organizers of what would have been the first anti-foreign demonstration by PRC citizens since 1999 are considering suing the government for forcing them to abort a protest. The group had secured permission from the Beijing police on Friday to hold an antiwar protest in downtown Chaoyang Park on Sunday. However, organizers Li Ning and Tong Xiaoxi said they were told by police last Saturday that only 40 people, not 100 as planned, could take part. The duration also had to be cut -- from five hours to 40 minutes, with no speeches permitted -- and the time was to be brought forward by one hour. Internet publicity was also not permitted. Li and Tong decided to call off the protest because, they said, "the original purpose for holding the demonstration -- publicity and education -- would be lost." In a statement issued Sunday, they said they reserved the right to sue the Beijing police for denying citizens their constitutional rights to hold peaceful demonstrations. On Sunday, police also stopped several students and intellectuals from unfurling antiwar banners in the Wangfujing commercial district. 8. PRC-DPRK Relations Reuters(Benjamin Kang Lim, "CHINA APPEARS TO BE TRYING TO REIN IN NORTH KOREA," Beijing, 03/31/03) reported that the PRC briefly cut off crucial oil supplies to the DPRK recently in an apparent bid to rein in its unpredictable neighbor after the DPRK test-fired missiles, diplomats said on Monday. It was the first sign of the PRC appearing willing to use its economic muscle to twist arms in Pyongyang after months of criticism from Washington for failing to do enough to pressure the DPRK to curb its nuclear ambitions. Talk of PRC pressure on its longtime ally came as an ROK envoy, national security adviser Ra Jong-yil, headed to Russia and the PRC to restart stalled efforts on a diplomatic resolution to the crisis. The PRC cited technical problems for the three-day shutdown in March of an oil pipeline running from its northeastern province of Liaoning to the DPRK. "It was cut for three days after the second missile," the diplomat quoted Chinese sources as saying, referring to DPRK firing a cruise missile into the Sea of Japan on March 10, the DPRK's second missile test in two weeks. "Many Chinese are talking about it, but it's not 100 percent confirmed," the diplomat said. The PRC said the disruption of oil supply was "unintentional," the DPRK Korea lodged a strong protest, he added. The PRC Foreign Ministry had no immediate comment and state oil firm China National Petroleum Corp and trader Sinochem denied any suspension of oil supply to the DPRK -- estimated at one million tons a year -- in the past two months. 9. Cross-Strait Relations The Associated Press ("TAIWAN'S PRESIDENT SAYS CHINA'S POLITICAL REFORMS ARE 'PHONY,'" Taipei, Taiwan, 03/31/03) reported that in one his most intense sessions of PRC-bashing in months, Taiwan's leader said the PRC's political system was "phony" and guilty of a cover-up that allowed a deadly mystery disease to spread worldwide. President Chen Shui-bian was unimpressed with the PRC's first orderly political succession since the Communists took power five decades ago. In March, Hu Jintao succeeded Jiang Zemin as president, but Jiang, 76, retained control of a commission that oversees the 2.5 million-man People's Liberation Army. "Although Hu Jintao has taken over, Jiang Zemin still holds the power," Chen said. "We believe this is extremely strange," Chen said. "How could you have this type of system?" He said that in democratic countries, the political leader also has control over the military. Chen's comments came during a meeting with one of the PRC's biggest critics: Gordon Chang, the American author of the book "The Coming Collapse of China." A transcript was given in a presidential statement. The Taiwanese president accused the PRCof trying to cover up the outbreak of a deadly strain of pneumonia that is spreading around the world. "You can see the real nature of Communist China by looking at the SARS outbreak," Chen said. The president said that the PRC tried to hide the outbreak and allowed it to spread to other countries because PRC leaders feared the disease would scare investors away from the PRC. "China still doesn't respect human rights, ignores public health and blocks the news media," he said. "From this we can see that China's political reforms are all phony." 10. PRC Tibetan Release The New York Times ("CHINA LETS TIBET NUN, LONG JAILED, GO TO US," Beijing, 03/31/03) reported that a Tibetan nun, the PRC's longest-serving female political prisoner, was allowed to leave for the US on Friday, an American-based activist said. The nun, Ngawang Sangdrol, flew to the US accompanied by an American diplomat, said John Kamm, president of the Dui Hua Foundation in San Francisco. Imprisoned as a 15-year-old in 1992 for taking part in demonstrations against Chinese rule in Tibet, Ngawang Sangdrol was paroled in October, Kamm said. Her prison sentence was to have run through 2011. Ngawang Sangdrol and 13 other imprisoned nuns became known as the "singing nuns" after they recorded songs about their love for their families and their homeland. Activists said their sentences were extended after the tape was smuggled out of Drapchi Prison in Tibet. Ngawang Sangdrol was a focus of lobbying by Washington. 11. Asian Stock Markets and War on Iraq The Washington Post (Peter S. Goodman, "STOCK PRICES SLIDE ACROSS ASIA AS PACE OF WAR SLOWS," Shanghai, 03/31/03) reported that stock markets across Asia opened lower today as traders digested the prospect that the war in Iraq would likely drag on longer than expected, dampening demand for the region's products in the US. Investors also appeared to be retreating in the face of growing fears about the spread of a global mystery virus from its epicenter in southern PRC. Warnings about the disease from health authorities around the world have prompted travelers to cancel scheduled trips to the region. In trading early today, Japan's widely watched Nikkei 225 stock index was down 2.5 percent, while the ROK's Kospi index fell 2.8 percent. Traders said the market was reacting in part to a stock market drop in New York on Friday, but also to the televised spectacle of a war that looks nastier than once anticipated, with images of civilians killed in a Baghdad market, and US and British soldiers bogged down in cities that will not be taken easily. 12. Hong Kong SARS Quarantine The Washington Post (John Pomfret and Rick Weiss, "HONG KONG QUARANTINES COMPLEX TO CONTROL SPREAD OF EPIDEMIC," Beijing, 03/31/03) reported that Hong Kong's Department of Health took the unprecedented step this morning of ordering all residents of an apartment building to be quarantined at home for 10 days, after a sharp rise in cases of a deadly pneumonia virus in the housing estate. The move marked a dramatic escalation of Hong Kong's efforts to control the spread of the pneumonia that emerged in southern PRC this winter and has become the focus of a global health alert. It came after the number of infections in the city leapt by 60 to 530 Sunday, with 36 of the new cases coming from Amoy Gardens housing estate. "Because of the very special circumstances that we now face, we have no choice but to resort to this exceptional measure," the Hong Kong government said in a statement.
1. Japan-DPRK Relations China Daily ("JAPAN TO LAUNCH FIRST SPY SATELLITE," Tokyo, 03/28/03, P12) reported that confronted with growing fears of a missile test by the DPRK, Japan is set to launch its first two spy satellites on March 28. The two information-gathering satellites, entirely developed by Japanese firms, will be launched aboard one of Japan's H-2A rockets from the southern island of Tanegashima some 1,000 kilometers southwest of Tokyo, the report said. Some 200 police have been deployed near the launch site and coast guard ships were patrolling waters to thwart possible terrorist attacks following the US decision to invade Iraq, which Japan has backed. The heavy security was also a response to news reports that Pyongyang, angry at what it sees as threatening re-militarization by Japan, may test-fire a ballistic missile around the time of the satellite launch. Under the 250 billion yen (US$2.1 billion) project pursued by both the public and private sectors, the country plans to launch a total of four satellites this year, the Cabinet Satellite Intelligence Center said. It is necessary for any country to have its own information satellite if it wants to have free access to satellite images, often used as major evidence of early phases of military action, said the official from the 300-strong center, which was specially set up for the project after the 1998. Pyongyang's official Korean Central News Agency on March 26 accused Japan of acting as "a shock brigade" for the launch of a US pre-emptive attack and nuclear war against the DPRK. 2. DPRK Relations with US and Japan China Daily ("DPRK HALTS ARMS TALKS WITH US," Seoul, 03/27/03, P12) reported that the DPRK on March 26 cut off its channel for dialogue with the US military while issuing a warning to Japan over a satellite launch as tension mounted on the Korean Peninsula. The DPRK pulled out of regular meetings with the US-led UN Command and said it could be forced to take another "measure" to protest a massive military drill between the US and the ROK it regards as a nuclear war exercise, the DPRK's official Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) said. Ri Chan-bok, the DPRK's chief delegate to the generals' talks, the highest-level meetings between the two sides, said the DPRK suspended contacts between liaison officers at the border truce village of Panmunjom. Officers from the DPRK and the UN Command have held talks at Panmunjom to discuss matters concerning the armistice signed at the end of the Korean War and aimed at preventing an escalation in military tensions and avoiding armed clashes. UN special envoy to the DPRK Maurice Strong has urged US and ROK to hold talks as soon as possible, saying he sensed concern from Pyongyang that the DPRK could be the next target of US military action. In a separate dispatch, KCNA blasted Japan for the planned launch of a spy satellite on Friday "at a time when the United States has designated it (the DPRK) as the next target of its attack after the ongoing Iraqi war." "If it takes the road of re-invasion, toeing the US policy to stifle the DPRK militarily, Japan will not have its security guaranteed but face self-destruction," KCNA said. 3. ROK-DPRK Relations People's Daily (Gao Haorong, "ROK TO CONTINUE TALKS WITH DPRK," Seoul, 03/25/03, P7) reported that a ROK official said on March 24 that ROK will continue its talks with DPRK, trying to fix its time and system, and to make it a window for resolving problems of the bilateral relations. ROK will actively create a peaceful atmosphere for resolving the DPRK's nuclear issue, activate the bilateral economic cooperation, and continue providing humanitarian aids to DPRK, through which to realize the systemization of the reunion of relatives. According to another resources, a minister of ROK government on the same day stressed at persuading DPRK to join in the multilateral talks in terms of resolving the nuclear issue, said the report. 4. ROK's Troops Sending Postponed China Daily ("VOTE ON SENDING ROK TROOPS POSTPONED," Seoul, 03/26/03, P12) reported that the parliament of the ROK, fearing a public backlash, shelved a vote on March 25 on sending troops to support US war efforts in Iraq as anti-war protests mounted here. President Roh Moo-Hyun expressed regret, saying the dispatch of troops would have helped ROK persuade the US to solve the nuclear crisis on the Korean Peninsula peacefully. Roh's proposal last week to contribute some 700 non-combatants to the war effort sparked criticism and a rising tide of anti-war protests. "Both parties agreed to put off the vote," Chung Kyun-Hwan, floor leader of Roh's ruling Millennium Democratic Party (MDP), told reporters after the bill to send troops faced strong opposition from voters. The influential Korean Bar Association has ruled the war on Iraq illegal and ROK's two umbrella labor groups, which have more than 1.6 million members, have threatened a general strike if the assembly approves Roh's decision. Meanwhile, ROK's new foreign minister, Yoon Young-Kwan, sets off for the US on his first foreign trip on March 25. Yoon, 52, a career academic appointed by President Roh Moo-Hyun last month, heads the foreign ministry in testing times, with US-ROK relations also under strain. Yoon is scheduled to meet with US counterpart Colin Powell on March 27 for what Kim said he anticipated could be "heated" talks. Officials in Seoul said he was also expected to meet US Vice President Dick Cheney and security adviser, Condoleeza Rice. 5. US-Russian Relations People's Daily ("PUTIN DENIES ARMS SALES TO IRAQ," Moscow, 03/26/03, P3) reported that US President George W. Bush spoke with Russian President Vladimir Putin by telephone on March 24, who denied the claim that Russia provided arms to Iraq. Putin stressed that Russia had long abides by the US's sanction regime to Iraq, and the rumor of Russia's arms sales to Iraq will definitely harm the US-Russian ties. During the phone conversation, Putin also confirmed Russia's stated position on Iraq issue, said the report. China Daily ("RUSSIA DENIES CLAIMS OF ARM SALES," Moscow, 03/25/03, P12) reported that Russian Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov on March 24 denied news reports that Russia had supplied Iraq with military equipment in breach of US sanctions. He made the remarks ahead of White House claims that Russian firms had sold weapons and equipment to Iraq. Ivanov told journalists: "Russia rigorously observes all its international obligations and has not supplied Iraq with any equipment, including military, in breach of the sanctions regime." Meanwhile, Russian President Vladimir Putin on March 24 asked Iraq to respect international law on prisoners of war as Moscow said it would call on the UN to rule on the legality of the US-led war. China Daily ("RUSSIA MUST POSTPONE RATIFICATION DUE TO WAR," Moscow, 03/27/03, P11) reported that Russian Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov on March 26 said Russia should not ratify a key nuclear disarmament treaty with the US until the two sides resolve their differences over the war in Iraq. "We need to ratify the treaty, but right now is not the best moment for ratification," Ivanov said in remarks to the upper house of parliament, as quoted by Interfax news agency. At the same time, Ivanov warned on March 26 that the US-led war in Iraq was doomed to failure. Ivanov said US-led attempts to overthrow the regime of a sovereign state were "illegal and doomed to failure." 6. US-ROK Relations China Daily (Seoul, 03/28/03, P11) reported that Admiral Thomas Fargo, the commander of US forces in the Pacific, arrived in the ROK on March 27 to discuss issues concerning the DPRK and the military alliance between ROK and US, officials said in the report. 7. Across Taiwan-strait Relations People's Daily (Wu Yaming, "SPOKESMAN ON RECENT DEVELOPMENT OF ACROSS STRAIT RELATIONS," Beijing, 03/27/03, P4) reported that Zhang Mingqing, spokesman for the Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council, on March 26 spoke at a regular press conference on issues concerned with relations across Taiwan Strait. Firstly, Zhang mentioned the speech on Taiwan delivered by the Chinese Communist Party's top leader, Hu Jintao, saying the speech showed the Party's attention to Taiwan affairs, its confidence in settling Taiwan affairs and the nation's unanimous desire for reunification. The speech also showed that the Party had maintained consistent and innovative policies on Taiwan affairs. Commenting on reports that some Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) members were pushing ahead with legislation on a referendum in the "Legislative Yuan," or Taiwan's parliament, Zhang stressed that "Taiwan's legal status as part of the Chinese territory has been explicitly stated in both domestic and international laws," and Taiwan belongs to all 1.3 billion Chinese people including Taiwan compatriots, "So the future of Taiwan should also be determined by all the 1.3 billion people". "The conspiracy to separate Taiwan from China in the way of a referendum, which is illegal and invalid, will go nowhere," Zhang said. While asked about the Iraq War's effect on relations across the straits, Zhang mentioned the fact that the CAAC offered to open emergency air routes to Taiwanese airlines to facilitate their flights to Europe and Central Asia on March 21, a day after the Iraqi war broke out. Zhang also urged Taiwan authorities to give up separatists' stance and open for direct three links, so as to expand communications between the two sides of Taiwan Strait. 8. Japan-US Relations China Daily (Tokyo, 03/27/03, P11) reported that Japan has decided to reject a US request to close the Iraqi embassy here in order to maintain diplomatic channels, a foreign ministry official said on March 26, according to the report. 9. ROK Envoy's Trip to Russia and PRC on DPRK Issue China Daily ("ROK ENVOY EMBARKS ON MISSION," Seoul, 03/31/03, P12) reported that ROK presidential envoy Ra Jong-yil left for Russia and PRC on March 30 to seek support for efforts to defuse tension surrounding the DPRK nuclear issue. Ra Jong-yil, a senior national security adviser, is to visit ROK on April 2 after a two-day trip to Russia, his office said. "We hope the visit will help strengthen co-operation in the fields of diplomacy and security," presidential spokeswoman Song Kyoung-hee told reporters. The visit to Russia and PRC follows talks in Washington between ROK Foreign Minister Yoon Young-kwan and US officials, including Vice-President Dick Cheney and Secretary of State Colin Powell, the report said. The trips by Ra and Yoon are part of ROK's efforts to narrow divisions with US on how to handle the five-month-old nuclear issue. Cheney will visit Seoul in mid-April ahead of a planned summit between President George W. Bush and ROK President Roh Moo-hyun. Roh has ruled out the use of sanctions or military action against the DPRK. US said it is keeping all options open while seeking a peaceful solution to the DPRK issue. Meanwhile, the DPRK condemned ROK on March 30 for planning to contribute non-combat troops to the US-led war on Iraq, which it called a test run for a US attack on the Korean Peninsula. The DPRK also accuses US of planning to target it after Iraq, said the report. 1. Japan's Public Survey on US Attack to Iraq The Asahi Shinbun ("JAPAN ANTI-WAR SENTIMENT UP," 03/31/03) reported that Japanese public opposition to the U.S.-led war in Iraq has grown, according to the latest telephone survey conducted by The Asahi Shimbun. Sixty-five percent of the respondents to the weekend survey did not support the U.S.-led war. In a survey conducted March 20-21, immediately after fighting began, 59 percent of the respondents said they opposed the war. The percentage of respondents who said they supported the war fell from 31 percent to 27 percent. There was also pessimism that the war would not be a short one, with only 20 percent saying the war would be finished within a month, while 70 percent said the fighting would last for longer than a month. Increases in percentages of those opposed to the war were noticeable among women as well as respondents over the age of 50. Anti-war sentiment was also reflected in the public's perception of Japanese politicians' actions. Fifty-three percent of respondents said they opposed Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi's announcement in support of the United States. Only 36 percent said they sided with Koizumi. The figures were generally unchanged from the previous survey. When asked their reasons for opposing or supporting the war, 70 percent of those who opposed the war said "opposition to war in general" while 20 percent said "the unconvincing U.S. argument for war." Of those who supported the war, 60 percent said "there was a need for U.S. cooperation to deal with the North Korean issue," while 30 percent said "because the United States was an ally." In relation to the role the UN can play in bringing about a quick end to the fighting, 60 percent of the respondents said they held "great" or "some" expectations for the United Nations, while 40 percent said they did not expect the United Nations to play a role. When asked if the US was playing a central role in maintaining global security, a majority of the respondents said "no." 2. Japanese Fear of Being Drawn into War The Asahi Shinbun ("POLL SHOWS FEARS OF WAR AT HIGHEST EVER," 03/31/03) reported that Japan's Cabinet Office survey, released over the weekend, questioned 3,000 eligible voters nationwide on their views about security and the Self-Defense Forces (SDF). There were 2,126 valid responses. Forty-three percent-the most since the government began the survey in 1969 and 12 points more than in the previous survey in 2000-said they feared Japan could be drawn into a war. In contrast, just 11 percent thought this unlikely, compared with 23 percent of respondents in the 2000 survey. A record 75 percent of respondents cited rising tensions on the Korean Peninsula as the biggest security threat. In the Tohoku region, where a DPRK Taepodong ballistic missile soared overhead in 1998, the figure jumped up to 86 percent. Respondents were asked to choose three security issues that concern them from a list of 10 possible answers. "The situation on the Korean Peninsula" came out top, followed by "disarmament and control of weapons of mass destruction, missiles and other artillery" with 35 percent, and "the situation in the Middle East" with 34 percent. Meantime, 62 percent of respondents said they saw no need to reinforce the SDF, and 57 percent thought the defense budget should remain the same, compared with 15 percent who wanted to cut it, and 12 percent who wanted to increase it. 3. Japan-DPRK Relations over Japan's Spy Satellite The Asahi Shinbun ("SPY SATELLITES SENT ALOFT AMID N.KOREA WARNING," Tanegashima, Kagoshima prefecture, 03/31/03) reported that the nation's first spy satellites were launched Friday, giving Japan its own eyes in the sky to help it deal with a bellicose DPRK and other potential threats. The payload was carried by an H2A rocket that blasted off at 10:27 a.m. from the National Space Development Agency's (NASDA) Tanegashima Space Center. The launch prompted an immediate response from DPRK, which accused Japan of starting a regional arms race. Images from the satellites will be transmitted to receptors in Kitaura, Ibaraki Prefecture, Akune in Kagoshima Prefecture, and Tomakomai in Hokkaido. The data will be analyzed at the Cabinet satellite intelligence center in Tokyo. While the spy satellites offer greater capability, the added intelligence touched a raw nerve in Pyongyang. DPRK announced March 18 the proposed launch was provocative and posed a major threat to regional peace. "Japan will be held wholly responsible for sparking a new arms race in Northeast Asia," said a North Korean Foreign Ministry spokesman after Friday's launch, according to the state-run Korea Central News Agency monitored in Tokyo. DPRK's suspected nuclear facilities are considered a primary target for the spy satellites, sources said. In addition, military facilities in PRC and RF will also likely come under closer scrutiny. Surveillance targets are classified into three categories: weapons of mass destruction, military and infrastructure. Specific facility names have been included in a targeting list for each category. DPRK's nuclear and missile launching facilities remain the primary target for analysts. In particular, the Yongbyon complex where many facilities are concentrated is also a target, as is a suspected weapons facility at Kumchangri. Missile facilities to be watched are at Musudan, Nodong and Taepodong. Those facilities contain ballistic missile testing sites, production plants, chemical weapons production plants and ammunition depots, sources said. The first images from the spy satellites are expected to be transmitted from May. Plans call for actual analysis to begin from September. Analysts will be building up a database of images until then through images purchased from commercial satellites sent aloft by the US. 4. Japan-DPRK Relations over Iraqi Crisis The Asahi Shinbun ("NORTH KOREA WEAK JUSTIIFCATION FOR IRAQ," 03/31/03) reported that without evidence, proponents say Tokyo must support the US or Washington would not come to Japan's defense should DPRK launch an attack. However, others in the government are concerned that openly labeling Pyongyang a threat could further degrade relations with DPRK and provide fuel to hawks within the US administration who, they claim, would like nothing more than to take on Kim Jong Il once Saddam Hussein has been disposed of. Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi linked DPRK, Iraq and the military alliance with the US at a news conference March 20, shortly after fighting began in Iraq. "It is not difficult to understand that many Japanese feel a threat from DPRK, but the Japan-US alliance is functioning effectively in dealing with that issue as well," said Koizumi. Japanese government officials at first struggled to find a rationale to support the US operation in Iraq since it began without a new UN Security Council resolution. Many within the Liberal Democratic Party said using the DPRK threat would be the simplest way to manipulate an already skittish public. However, Foreign Ministry officials were concerned that this argument would inflame public opinion toward DPRK and cause some to question whether the alliance was reducing or actually increasing the threat to Japan. An early example of the Foreign Ministry's take on the relationship between DPRK and Iraq came Feb. 17 when Vice Minister Yukio Takeuchi said, "The issue of Iraq's weapons of mass destruction is not totally unrelated to Japan, when one considers the national security environment of East Asia." Ministry officials took pains to link Pyongyang and Baghdad, not through the alliance with the US, but through other scary buzzwords-weapons of mass destruction. Aides to Koizumi said the prime minister wavered over whether to link the DPRK issue to Iraq. He initially said the US was justified in its actions when President George W. Bush issued his ultimatum to Saddam on March 18. However, in later discussions with close aides, Koizumi suggested that he use the DPRK issue to further explain his support for the U.S. action. 5. Japan Aid over Iraqi Crisis The Asahi Shinbun ("TENTS, AID READY FOR JORDAN TO HELP REFUGEES FROM IRAQ WAR,"03/28/03) reported that Japan's government plans to dispatch two aircraft to Jordan this weekend packed with tents for refugees fleeing the war in Iraq, sources said. The aircraft will carry 160 tents, each capable of accommodating 10 people. The aircraft leave Sunday. It will be the first time government planes are used for purposes other than transporting VIPs. About 60 armed officers of the Self-Defense Forces will be on board the flights to ensure the mission is accomplished. The government plans to offer the tents and other humanitarian aid based on the peacekeeping operations cooperation law. This includes sending medical teams to refugee camps in nations neighboring Iraq. Tokyo also plans the following relief assistance: 1) Medical care: Doctors with the Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) will go to Syria, where many refugees are headed, to help improve emergency care at national hospitals; 2) Aid through NGOs: $3.3 million is earmarked for nongovernmental organizations under the Japan Platform, representing international relief NGOs, to support their emergency medical care activities. 3) Aid through international organizations: $5.03 million is earmarked for three international organizations, including the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees. More aid will be considered if there is a flood of refugees. Tokyo has also decided to provide $100 million to Jordan in economic aid to cover anticipated war damage, plus $4.2 million in food relief to the Palestinian authority.
The NAPSNet Daily Report aims to serve as a forum for dialogue
and exchange among peace and security specialists.
Conventions for readers and a list of acronyms and
abbreviations are available to all recipients.
For descriptions of the world wide web sites used to gather
information for this report, or for more information on web
sites with related information, see the collection of
other NAPSNet resources.
Produced by the Nautilus Institute for Security and Sustainable Development in partnership with:
Ilmin Internationl Relations Institute
Center for American Studies,
International Peace Research Institute (PRIME),
Monash Asia Institute,
Brandon Yu: napsnet@nautilus.org
Timothy L. Savage: napsnet@nautilus.org
Kim Young-soo: yskim328@hotmail.com
Hibiki Yamaguchi: hibikiy84@hotmail.com
Saiko Iwata: saiko@akira.ne.jp
Hiroya Takagi: hiroya_takagi@hotmail.com
Peter Razvin: icipu@online.ru
Wu Chunsi: cswu@fudan.ac.cn
Dingli Shen: dlshen@fudan.ac.cn
John McKay: John.McKay@adm.monash.edu.au
|
||
