NAPSNet Daily Report
wednesday, july 30, 2003

I. United States


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I. United States

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1. US Department of Defense PRC Military Power Report

The Washington File, "DOD RELEASES REPORT ANALYZING CHINA'S SECURITY STRATEGY DEFENSE DEPARTMENT'S ANNUAL REPORT ON CHINA'S MILITARY POWER," 07/30/03) reported that the US Department of Defense issued a report to Congress July 30, 2003 on the PRC's military strategy stating that while the PRC interacts with the US in order to benefit from US trade and technology, "Beijing apparently believes that the US poses a significant long-term challenge," especially with regards to Taiwan. The primary driving force for the PRC's military modernization, the report states, is the PRC's perceived need to prepare "credible military options" to "complicate US intervention" in any potential conflict in the Taiwan Strait. "Should China use force against Taiwan, its primary goal likely would be to compel a quick negotiated solution on terms favorable to Beijing," the report predicts. The DoD report also states that "Beijing has greatly expanded its arsenal of increasingly accurate and lethal ballistic missiles and long-range strike aircraft that are ready for immediate application should the (People's Liberation Army) be called upon to conduct war before its modernization aspirations are fully realized." The report, entitled "Annual Report on the Military Power of the People's Republic of China," was issued under the requirements of Section 1202 of the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2000, Public Law 106-65. The full text of the report can be found at:

The Associated Press (Eun-Kyung Kim, "PENTAGON: CHINA AIMING MISSILES AT TAIWAN," Washington, 07/30/03) reported that the PRC is acquiring short-range missiles much faster than US officials had thought and is aiming the weapons at Taiwan and possibly at US forces to block their use on the island's behalf in any future conflict, according to a Pentagon report. "Preparing for a potential conflict in the Taiwan Strait is the primary driver for China's military modernization," said the report on Beijing's military. The report, submitted annually to Congress, was released Wednesday. The PRC has about 450 short-range ballistic missiles but is expected to increase its inventory by more than 75 missiles each year. The sophistication and accuracy of the missiles have improved, with the PRC army developing longer-range models of the CSS-6 missile capable of reaching as far as Okinawa, Japan, home to more than 33,000 US troops. A senior defense official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said China may be using Okinawa "to checkmate or deter or threaten US involvement" if conflict erupts in the Taiwan Strait, which separates the PRC mainland from Taiwan. The Pentagon estimated in last year's assessment that the PRC's military had acquired 350 ballistic missiles and was adding them at a rate of 50 a year. The report also said that the PRC is spending far more on its defense budget than it has acknowledged. US officials estimate the military budget which Beijing announced as US$20 billion early last year actually falls between US$45 billion and US$65 billion, and the report noted a potential for annual spending to increase three or four times by 2020. The full text of the Pentagon's report to Congress on the Military Power of the People's Republic of China can be found:

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2. US DPRK Security Concerns 'Concept Paper'

Reuters ("US CRAFTING PROPOSAL ON N.KOREA'S CONCERNS-JAPAN," Tokyo, 07/30/03) reported that the US is preparing a proposal to address North Korea's "security concerns" but will not convey it to the communist state unless five-way talks are held on the DPRK's nuclear ambitions, a senior Japanese government official said on Wednesday. "The US is preparing a 'concept paper' but it will only be shown to North Korea at five-nation talks," the senior Japanese government official told reporters. The ROK said on Monday that negotiations on resuming the talks appeared to be bogged down. The Japanese official, who requested anonymity, added that the US proposal would address the DPRK security concerns and outline procedures to resolve the crisis. He gave no further details.

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3. ROK on UN Role in DPRK Nuclear Diplomacy

Agence France-Presse ("SKOREA HOLD TALKS ON NUKE CRISIS AS NORTH KOREA REITERATES DEMANDS," Seoul, 07/30/03) reported that US undersecretary of state for arms control and international security, John Bolton, held talks with ROK Foreign Minister Yoon Young-Kwan. Bolton met with Yoon Wednesday as the ROK denied the existence of a rift with the US on Washington's drive to bring the nuclear crisis to the United Nations. Bolton earlier insisted that the DPRK's nuclear violations be brought before the UN Security Council, a move certain to infuriate the DPRK. The ROK's Foreign Ministry said Seoul was not opposed to a UN role but took issue with the timing, saying efforts to resolve the crisis through negotiations should be exhausted first. "We are now exerting our efforts for a diplomatic solution. It is better for us to resolve the crisis outside the UN framework at this time," said ministry spokesman Kim Sun-Heung. Bolton arrived from the PRC Tuesday for a three-day stay in Seoul before heading for Tokyo on the third and final leg of his Asia swing on Thursday. In Seoul he is also scheduled to meet with President Roh Moo-Hyun's national security advisor Ra Jong-Yil and foreign policy advisor Ban Ki-Moon.

Agence France-Presse ("SOUTH KOREA DENIES RIFT WITH US ON NORTH KOREA NUCLEAR CRISIS," 07/30/03) reported that the ROK has denied the existence of a rift with the US on the DPRK as the US maintained its drive to bring the nuclear crisis to the United Nations. Top US arms control official John Bolton, meeting here with senior ROK officials Wednesday, said he insisted that North Korea's nuclear violations be brought before the UN Security Council, a move certain to infuriate Pyongyang. The ROK's Foreign Ministry said Seoul was not opposed to UN role but took issue with the timing, saying efforts to resolve the crisis through negotiations should be exhausted first. "We are now exerting our efforts for a diplomatic solution. It is better for us to resolve the crisis outside the UN framework at this time," said ministry spokesman Kim Sun-Heung. He described as "incorrect" a newspaper report, citing an interview with Foreign Minister Yoon Young-Kwan, that said that the ROK had rejected US calls for the UN Security Council to intervene. "What is important is the timing," said Kim, suggesting the ROK wanted to avoid provoking the DPRK which has vehemently opposed efforts to refer the crisis to the world body.

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4. Bush-Hu on DPRK Nuclear Crisis

Agence France-Presse ("BUSH SPEAKS TO CHINA'S HU ON DPRK NUCLEAR CRISIS," 07/31/03) reported that US President George W. Bush spoke by telephone to PRC President Hu Jintao, and said "serious progress" was being made in framing an Asian regional solution to the DPRK nuclear crisis. Bush revealed the phone call in a solo White House news conference, and said the move was "part of an ongoing process" to encourage Hu "to stay involved in the process of discussion" with DPRK leader Kim Jong. "I told President Hu that it is very important for us to get Japan and South Korea and Russia involved as well," Bush said. "We are actually beginning to make serious progress about sharing responsibility on this issue, in such a way that I believe will lead to an attitudinal change by Kim Jong Il," he said. "I think that one of the things that is important to understanding North Korea is that the past policy of trying to engage bilaterally didn't work," Bush spoke. "In other words, the North Koreanss were ready to engage, but they didn't keep their word on their engagement. Bush spoke after US envoy John Bolton held talks with ROK Foreign Minister Yoon Young-Kwan in Seoul on the crisis. On the eve of Bolton's arrival, Yoon said PRC consultations with the DPRK had slowed and it was unclear when a new round of talks would take place. The DPRK on Wednesday, in public at least, reverted to its insistence on a non-aggression pact and one-on-one talks, which the US has ruled out.

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5. DPRK-ROK Radio Propaganda

Reuters ("SEOUL SAYS NORTH KOREA TO END ANTI-SOUTH BROADCASTS," Seoul, 07/29/03) reported that the DPRK will halt propaganda broadcasts aimed at the ROK from September -- a move the ROK interprets as a bid to get them to reciprocate. "Through a televised announcement, North Korea announced its plan to halt the anti-South propaganda broadcasts," an official at the policy division of Seoul's Unification Ministry told Reuters. "It appears that they are taking the initiative on this move and thereby urging us to do the same," he said. For decades, DPRK TV and radio have broadcast scathingly critical propaganda about the capitalist South, at times accusing leaders of being greedy womanizers and the ROK people of suffering under US oppression. The ROK also broadcasts to the DPRK, but Seoul says the content is mostly information about the ROK rather than criticism about the DPRK. The unification ministry official said the ROK and the DPRK had promised to stop critical propaganda broadcasts during an unprecedented summit in 2000 between DPRK leader Kim Jong-il and former ROK president Kim Dae-jung. The DPRK raised this issue again during recent ministerial talks and both sides agreed to discuss this in detail at working-level committees, the official said.

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6. PRC Drought

Agence France-Presse ("PARTS OF CHINA FACING WORST DROUGHT IN A DECADE," 07/30/03) reported that parts of the PRC are facing their worst drought in a decade with nearly three million people suffering from water shortages in two provinces alone, state press said. In eastern Zhejiang province, some 1.3 million people are short of drinking water while 200,000 hectares of crops have been damaged, the China Daily said Wednesday. Raging forest fires have also left at least two villagers dead. In central Hunan province, more than 1.5 million people are plagued by the prolonged dry spell which has worsened in recent days with temperatures soaring to 43 degrees Celcius in some areas of the country. Drought conditions have also deteriorated in the south where meteorological officials Tuesday formally issued a red heat warning in Guangdong for the first time ever. Red heat warnings are issued whenever the mercury climbs above 35 degrees Celsius. Eastern Anhui province, struggling to overcome the worst floods in years, is also now blighted by intense heat, the paper said. Meanwhile, torrential rains that have plagued central and eastern PRC have moved towards the northeast where water levels are rising on the Nengjiang river in Heilongjiang province. So far, 4,000 people have been evacuated. The area around the famous Three Gorges in Hubei province meanwhile is threatened by landslides, while boats have been prohibited from navigating the Tongzhuang river. The PRC has been particularly hard hit by wild weather this year with at least 3.5 million people made homeless by floods. Last week a powerful typhoon swept over the south, leaving a trail of destruction in its path.

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Produced by the Nautilus Institute for Security and Sustainable Development in partnership with:

Ilmin Internationl Relations Institute
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Department of Political Science, Korea University, Seoul, Republic of Korea

Center for American Studies,
Fudan University, Shanghai, People's Republic of China

International Peace Research Institute (PRIME),
Meiji Gakuin University, Tokyo, Japan

Monash Asia Institute,
Monash University, Clayton, Australia

Brandon Yu:
Berkeley, California, United States

Timothy L. Savage:
Berkeley, California, United States

Kim Young-soo:
Seoul, Republic of Korea

Hibiki Yamaguchi:
Tokyo, Japan

Saiko Iwata:
Tokyo, Japan

Hiroya Takagi:
Tokyo, Japan

Peter Razvin:
Moscow, Russian Federation

Wu Chunsi:
Shanghai, People's Republic of China

Dingli Shen:
Shanghai, People's Republic of China

John McKay:
Clayton, Australia

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